Here’s what voters said in our last poll before Election Day

With one week to go before midterm elections, U.S. voters are evenly split in their support between Democratic and Republican candidates, according to the latest PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll. The latest numbers show a significant shift since June, when Democrats enjoyed a 7-percentage point lead over Republicans, shortly after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.

Among independent voters, Republicans hold a 15 percentage point advantage over Democrats with 45 percent backing the GOP and 30 percent supporting the party currently in power.

Chart by Megan McGrew/PBS NewsHour

When considering registered voters who say they definitely will vote on Election Day, Republicans have a slight edge of 3 percentage points — falling within the margin of error — over Democrats.

WATCH: What is the margin of error?

President Joe Biden’s name isn’t on the ticket this election cycle, but midterms often are considered referendum votes on the party in power. With days to go, 42 percent of Americans approve of Biden’s leadership in office while 50 percent disapprove. Enthusiasm is running against Biden with twice as many people saying they strongly disapprove of Biden’s performance as those saying they strongly approve of what he’s doing. Americans perceive Biden about as favorably as they do former President Donald Trump, who has frequently made appearances to campaign for GOP candidates this cycle.

Given these latest flagging numbers, history doesn’t bode well for the Democrats’ chances in the polls. Low presidential approval ratings coupled with a large number of vulnerable seats tend to spell significant losses for the party in power, historical data show. The Democrats held only a six point advantage when they won control of Congress in 2018, and with the race now neck and neck, that control is at significant risk, analysts say.

For much of this year, Democrats managed to hang onto their small lead over Republicans, said Amy Walter, publisher and editor of the Cook Political Report. But now, she said it seems “as if the momentum is coalescing around the out-party here in the final days of the election.”

Chart by Megan McGrew/PBS NewsHour

In Congress, all 435 House seats are up for grabs (although most seats aren’t considered competitive elections), along with 35 Senate seats. Republicans are only one seat away from winning control of the Senate, and polls show they have a chance in at least four races: Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Arizona.

About six out of 10 U.S. adults — 59 percent — think it is better for the country if the same party controls Congress and the presidency. While 38 percent think the country benefits from political power being split between two parties (and the implicit checks and balances that tension brings to elected leaders and institutions). That’s a reversal from December 2016, when 29 percent preferred the same political party running the country while 63 percent wanted different parties to run the executive and legislative branches.

This support for one-party rule is “unique in recent American history,” said Allan Lichtman, a political scientist and professor at American University. A decade of worsening political gridlock at different levels of government – like multiple showdowns that have edged the nation toward a default on its debt – may have helped shape that public opinion.

Who’s fired up to vote?

Eight out of 10 voters — both Democrats and Republicans — say they are “definitely voting” in the midterms this year. Independents’ enthusiasm overall was a bit cooler, but roughly three-quarters of them say they plan to vote in the days ahead.

Chart by Megan McGrew/PBS NewsHour

If there ends up being a large turnout in the youth vote, “it’s going to help the Democrats,” said Alexander Keyssar, a professor of history and social policy at the Harvard Kennedy School. But so far, a surge of youth voters at the polls doesn’t appear likely. Nearly all baby boomers – 94 percent – say they plan to cast a ballot, voicing far more enthusiasm for the upcoming election than Gen Z-millennial voters who only clock in at 65 percent. Analyzing responses from registered voters by race, ethnicity and age, there’s a huge enthusiasm gap of approximately 20 percentage points or more among Black and Latino voters, who are less likely to say they are definitely voting this year compared to white voters.

Despite a large chorus of current GOP candidates denying or doubting the results of the 2020 election, three-quarters of people feel confident that their state and local officials will run a fair and accurate election. Meanwhile, 25 percent of people aren’t so confident, and Republicans, Trump supporters and white people who didn’t graduate from college are most likely to be skeptical. Overall, this broad trend has held steady since January 2020.

Partisan politics divide voters on what they think is most important going into the 2022 midterm elections, according to the latest PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll, released on Nov. 1. Lee Miringoff, who directs the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, spoke to the PBS NewsHour’s Laura Santhanam about the strengths and limitations of polling and how much influence they carry in campaigns going into the Nov. 8 elections.

A New York Times-Siena poll released Oct. 18 asked how comfortable registered voters were with supporting a candidate who agreed with them on most positions if they also said the 2020 presidential election was stolen. In that poll, 40 percent of Americans, including 70 percent of Democrats, 42 percent of independents and 10 percent of Republicans, said they were not at all inclined to vote for such a candidate.

Chart by Megan McGrew/PBS NewsHour

In this latest poll from the PBS NewsHour, NPR and Marist, more than half of registered voters — 57 percent — said they are likely to vote for a candidate who agrees with them on issues but who also says the 2020 election was stolen, including 83 percent of Republicans. Multiple investigations have made clear that there was no evidence of widespread vote tampering in the 2020 presidential election. Only 40 percent of Americans said there is little to no likelihood they would vote for a candidate who is a 2020 election denier, even if they agree on other issues. That includes 65 percent of Democrats.

And yet, according to this poll, most Americans think that if the candidate they support does not earn enough votes, they should definitely or probably concede.

What matters most to midterm voters

Inflation once again led the priorities of registered voters in this poll, including for 54 percent of Republicans and 40 percent of independents, as well as 36 percent of those Americans who said they were definitely voting. Preserving democracy was the top issue for 24 percent of Americans, including 42 percent of Democrats. Abortion mattered most to 14 percent of Americans, including 22 percent of Democrats.

While partisan politics may help explain who prioritizes what, attitudes among independents can help serve as a divining rod for how the country broadly feels about issues. Ahead of Nov. 8, things like preserving democracy and abortion are “not even close” compared to concerns among independents about inflation, Walter said, adding that it’s “not surprising.”

Chart by Megan McGrew/PBS NewsHour

Multiple factors, including the war in Ukraine, the coronavirus pandemic, rising corporate profits and fiscal policy, have driven historic inflation, hitting Americans’ wallets every time they bought groceries or gas for months. While some prices have begun to fall, people have not soon forgotten those economic shocks, and Republican politicians have taken the opportunity to pin responsibility on the Biden administration. When asked which party Americans perceive as doing a better job of handling the economy, 46 percent placed greater faith in Republicans, while only 26 percent of Americans chose Democrats.

Meanwhile, the fact that abortion falls in third place overall as a priority for Americans doesn’t mean that Democratic enthusiasm has drained, Walter said, or that the loss of federal protections for abortion “is a one-time issue.”

Abortion “isn’t a theoretical conversation anymore. This is a debate that’s going to be played out over a pretty considerable amount of time,” she added.

In politics, Walter said, “engaging voters is usually about keeping them enraged,” and reminding them that “if they don’t vote, something will be taken from them.”

PBS NewsHour, NPR and Marist Poll conducted a survey Oct. 24 – Oct. 27 that polled 1,586 U.S. adults (margin of error of 3.7 percentage points) and 1,469 registered voters (margin of error of 3.8 percentage points).