Former ambassador on what was and wasn’t accomplished at NATO summit

Amna Nawaz:

We return now to the NATO summit, what was and wasn't accomplished.

We get some perspective from Ivo Daalder. He was U.S. ambassador to NATO during the Obama administration. He's now the president of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.

Ambassador Daalder, what — when you look at the summit and what was accomplished, was this a missed opportunity? Should the alliance have issued an invitation or at least a timeline for an invitation for Ukraine to join?

Ivo Daalder, Former U.S. Ambassador to NATO: No, I really don't think so. And it was unrealistic, frankly, to think that there would be an invitation.

Making an invitation to a country in the middle of war in order to bring it into an alliance that is committed to defending every inch of the territory of all of its members was just not in the cards and couldn't be expected.

What could be expected is a very strong statement and a very strong commitment to move forward with Ukraine on multiple fronts, first of all, to provide new weapons, so it can launch the counteroffensive with the full backing of Western equipments. And that was done by a whole variety of countries.

Long-range missiles, cluster munitions, and new tanks and the like. Secondly, a long-term commitment that the United States, together with the G7 partners and others, are making to the defense and security of Ukraine, not only today and tomorrow, as long as this war goes on, but after that, to make sure that a war never resumed.

And then, finally, really an important indication that the issue of NATO membership is no longer a question of whether, but really a question of when and how. How do you bring in a country that is in the middle of a war with contested borders into a security alliance? That's now squarely on the agenda.

As President Biden said, hopefully, in the next few months, we're going to find out how we're going to do that. And that is a major step. So I think President Zelenskyy is going back to keep full with the backing of the Western alliance. And that's a good thing, because he needs that backing in order to win the war.

Amna Nawaz:

There was another significant summit move in Turkish President Erdogan's decision to allow Sweden to join NATO. That was just as the U.S. announces that Turkey will get those F-16s that they wanted.

Is that what changed everyone's mind? Help us understand what happened here.

Ivo Daalder:

Well, reading Erdogan's mind is difficult.

I mean, he likes attention. He certainly got it once again. He does this all the time. He goes to the brink of a of a summit in order to make sure that everybody knows that the Turks are around and are playing a big game. Secondly, I think he's now realizing that, with the economy in trouble in Turkey, he needs Western assistance, he needs a good relationship with the United States, with the European Union.

And, third, he did get those F-16s. It now looks like the discussions between the United States and Turkey on selling those F-16 are proceeding, that Congress is moving forward with providing those F-16s, as long as Turkey commits not to use them against Greece or Cyprus. And I noted that President Erdogan said that he would not do that.

So I think he's got a lot for what he wanted. But the most important thing, Sweden is now going to be a member of NATO. And that's how it should be.

Amna Nawaz:

As my colleague Laura Barron-Lopez reported earlier, NATO leaders have also for the first time since the end of the Cold War, they now have an approved military plan, a response plan, in case any of the NATO member nations are attacked.

Why is that significant?

Ivo Daalder:

You know, it is significant.

It's — and NATO is sort of relearning its muscle memory of what it means to be a military alliance. So these plans, one for the northern region, one for the central region, the eastern front and one for the southern region, dictate what kind of forces are necessary to defend every inch of NATO territory.

And it really gives an indication to all NATO members. It says you, Germany, need to provide 150 tanks in this place, and you need to be able to move them there within this time frame with the kind of ammunition that is necessary. And that's the kind of planning that now will go on through the entire lines.

Think of it as an Excel spreadsheet, with the NATO countries on — representing columns and the military capability representing the capabilities. And they're now filling in exactly what capabilities are necessary to fulfill the requirement to defend every inch of NATO territory.

So it emerges and integrates NATO defense planning and the investment and resourcing of NATO capabilities in a much more significant way. It's what we used to do during the Cold War. We just haven't been able to do it, or found it necessary to do it, until Russia decided that it would use force to change borders. And that, of course, is something that NATO wants to prevent.

Amna Nawaz:

Ambassador, I have got less than a minute left here.

But I have to ask you. Of course, Ukraine dominated this summit. They're in the middle of a counteroffensive. What's your sense of how that counteroffensive is going?

Ivo Daalder:

So, I think the Ukrainians are trying to probe for Russian weaknesses, so that they can then concentrate the forces that have been equipped and trained by Western countries and have a breakthrough.

It's probably getting a little bit more difficult. It is a bit a little more difficult than they had anticipated to finding that weakness. But I have no doubt that, at some point, you will see all of those forces that have been trained and equipped by Western countries massing and breaking through Russian defenses and making significant difference in where the front lines are going to be drawn.

Amna Nawaz:

That is the former U.S. Ambassador to NATO, now president of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, Ivo Daalder joining us tonight,

Ambassador Daalder, thank you. Good to see you.

Ivo Daalder:

Thank you.