Missile strike in Poland likely unintentional and tied to Ukrainian air defense, NATO says

Judy Woodruff:

It was the first explosion inside a NATO country linked to the war in Ukraine.

The missile that landed last night in Poland and killed two of its citizens sparked emergency meetings of NATO and the world's leading democracies, as well as multiple phone calls by President Biden and senior U.S. officials.

Today, initial findings suggest that it was an errant Ukrainian air defense missile, and not a Russian missile.

To discuss this, I am joined by our Nick Schifrin.

Hello, Nick. I know you have been reporting on this since the news first broke.

What is known at this point about this explosion?

Nick Schifrin:

The investigation is being led by Polish authorities aided by the U.S..

And, today, President Andrzej Duda of Poland said it was — quote — "highly probable" that a Ukrainian air defense missile landed in Poland. We heard from NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg as well, who said the explosion was — quote — "likely caused" by a Ukrainian missile.

And, this afternoon, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin echoed those assessments.

Lloyd Austin, U.S. Secretary of Defense: Our information supports what President Duda said earlier in his preliminary assessment, was that this was most likely, most likely a result of an Ukrainian air defense missile.

Nick Schifrin:

And this is the aftermath of that missile.

What we're talking about here are Ukrainian missiles that they're using to shoot down incoming Russian missiles, what Ukraine uses to defend itself. Yesterday, Russia launched 100 strikes across Ukraine. That is the largest salvo of the war.

But here's the thing. Ukraine is not on the same page tonight. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that his military told him that it wasn't them.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukrainian President (through translator):

I have no reason to doubt the evening report by the commander of the air force delivered to me personally, as well as to Commander in Chief Zaluzhnyi. I have no doubt that it was not our missile.

Nick Schifrin:

So that is a bit of a disconnect, Judy, between the U.S. and Ukraine.

But U.S. officials are increasingly confident in their initial assessment, based on things like the investigators, U.S. and Polish, on the ground, based on things like radar, heat tracking, and some intercepted communications.

So, despite the disconnect, it does seem like this crisis is over. But it was a crisis. The G7 leaders who are meeting in Bali met in an emergency meeting. NATO met in an unscheduled meeting. And President Biden and his top aides huddled. They woke up in the middle of the night. That is Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser, Secretary of State Antony Blinken in jeans and a T-shirt taking notes.

They spent hours scrambling because there has been a fear that, since Russia invaded Ukraine, this war could spill over into NATO. And last night, Judy, for a minute, there was a fear that that had actually happened.

Judy Woodruff:

And a lot of people are surprised it had not happened before now.

Nick Schifrin:

That's right. That's right.

Judy Woodruff:

So, let's broaden it out, the war itself.

We know Ukraine has had successes, certainly in the last several weeks, but it was the chairman of the Joint Chiefs who just this week suggested that Ukraine ought to be thinking about negotiating.

Nick Schifrin:

Yes, that's right.

So we have seen Ukraine seize the only regional capital that Russia seized this year. That is Kherson. But U.S. officials believed that it's getting muddy out there on the battlefield. And that will limit the ability for Ukraine and Russia to really seize, really move the other person very far.

And so that's led the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Mark Milley, last week to say that neither side could achieve their military objectives. And he said — quote — "When there's an opportunity to negotiate, seize the moment."

So, he was criticized by some in Ukraine and here for that comment. So, today, he said explicitly that Ukraine planned to keep fighting.

Gen. Mark Milley, Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff: Ukraine is going to continue to take the fight to the Russians. And I just had a significant conversation with my Ukrainian counterpart, and he assures me that that is the future for Ukraine.

Nick Schifrin:

But I was in the room. And we asked him, we pressed him on his comments last week multiple times.

He finally admitted that, given the 100,000-plus casualties that Russia has taken in this war, he says perhaps maybe it isn't the worst time to negotiate.

Gen. Mark Milley:

The Russian military is really hurting bad. So you want to negotiate at a time when you're at your strength and your opponent is at weakness. And it's possible, maybe, that there will be a political solution.

All I'm saying is, there's a possibility for it. That's all I'm saying.

Nick Schifrin:

The official U.S. policy, of course, is that only Ukraine can decide when to negotiate. The Ukrainian officials, Judy, tell me and others they have no desire to negotiate, and they think they can win.

And given what Milley is admitting, that victory here is going to be very difficult, the U.S. expects this war to continue for a long time. As Austin said today: "I do not think this war will be over anytime soon."

Judy Woodruff:

We would love to be a fly on the wall for those conversations between U.S. officials and the Ukrainians.

Nick Schifrin:

Absolutely.

Judy Woodruff:

Nick Schifrin, thank you.

Nick Schifrin:

Thank you.