Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on Biden’s State of the Union address, the conflict in Ukraine

Judy Woodruff:

The war in Ukraine comes at a critical point for President Biden, as he prepares to deliver his first State of the Union address tomorrow night.

Geoff Bennett has more.

Geoff Bennett:

Judy, in his speech, the president will lay out his domestic agenda not just to Congress, but to a nation eager to move on from the deadly COVID pandemic, but which is now facing new worries over inflation and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Here to assess what's at stake are Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter and Tamara Keith of NPR.

With a welcome to you both, Tam, I will start with you, because President Biden with his speech tomorrow is set to deliver what might be the most important presidential foreign policy speech of the post-Cold War era, given the situation in Ukraine, given Putin's apparent desire to redraw the post-Cold War security map of Europe.

And President Biden also has to speak directly to the issues that Americans are facing, COVID, record high inflation. How does the White House say he intends to do that?

Tamara Keith, National Public Radio:

He is going to address all of those things.

And he's going to do it, I think, in a way that is more big picture, more philosophical. That's what these State of the Union addresses are for, is to sort of speak directly to the American people and lay out his vision. You can expect that on COVID. Most of his speeches on COVID recently have — as many as there have been, which isn't very many, have been very tactical.

This comes as the mask mandate or the mask recommendation from the CDC has been lifted, as you can expect to see a lot of people in that House chamber not wearing masks tomorrow night, which will be a stark change. He's going to talk about the path forward.

On Ukraine, the White House indicates that he is going to emphasize the work that he has done to unite America's allies against Vladimir Putin and against Russia. Uniting the NATO allies, European Union, that was not a given going into this. And that's a case that the White House says the president will make.

Geoff Bennett:

And, Amy, on that point, the speech does present an opportunity for the president, given poll after poll showing him with record low approval ratings.

The speech is a chance for him, is Tam just said, to point to his leadership, to point to the fact that he has brought together a coalition, an enduring coalition so far, to stand up in the face of Russian aggression.

Amy Walter, The Cook Political Report:

Well, Geoff, it's interesting.

He is coming into this State of the Union address with — you're right. His public opinion polling is the lowest it has been in the course of his presidency. At the same time, though, at least in the early polling we're seeing that's coming out this week, at the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Americans are actually unified.

They're unified in their support for the sanctions that have already taken place on Russia, more Americans now than even earlier in February saying they support the decision of President Biden to send troops to — U.S. troops to NATO countries. We're seeing 80-plus percent of Americans saying Vladimir Putin's a bad guy and we don't think he has any — his decision to go into Ukraine has no basis in fact or reality, there's no claim that is truthful that Putin is put forward.

So Americans are pretty much united. In fact, what they would like to see — again, these are just the early polls that have come out thus far — they'd like to see, actually, more sanctions. They'd like to see more aid going to Ukraine.

So the challenge for the president right now isn't unifying around support for Ukraine or opposition to Russia's actions. The challenge right now is for Americans to see the president himself as a leader, and not just leading on this issue — again, his polls have been down across all areas, including foreign policy — but especially on the economy

And the NPR/PBS/Marist poll that was out last week showing the number one concern for Americans, inflation, that's something he's going to have to talk a lot about, because that is the top anxiety right now for a majority of Americans.

Geoff Bennett:

Yes.

And, Amy, a quick question about the polling, because, when you look at the data, when you look at the numbers, when you look at the way that the questions in the polls are actually framed, are Americans, by and large, the folks who are polled, are they really dissatisfied with President Biden's leadership, or are they, Americans generally, just in a dour mood, given this pandemic going into year three, given inflation,Well, and they're sort of projecting that mood onto the guy in charge?

Amy Walter:

Well, that's absolutely a big piece of it.

Look, we saw the president made his first joint address to Congress about 10 months ago in April, and Americans were feeling much more optimistic then. And the president spent a whole lot of time talking about the success of the vaccines.

But now he comes in with vaccines that have been successful, but a public very much divided over mandates, over masking, still frustrated about COVID. But, mostly, it's new worries, Geoff. This issue of inflation, it wasn't even mentioned in April of 2021. It is now the top concern, rising costs for groceries for filling up your car, for rent.

And the challenge I think we will soon find out is whether the president can come back from many Americans who once thought that he was handling the problems that America was facing quite well. Now, even on COVID, opinions on his handling of that has dropped.

Geoff Bennett:

And, Tam, in a couple of minutes we have left, let's return to the issue we started with.

And that was, namely Ukraine. And I want to talk about how Republicans are handling this, because Republicans generally had been united in blaming President Biden for his handling of this crisis in Eastern Europe.

But former President Donald Trump's comments, I think, have exposed a division here within the GOP. He has repeatedly defended Putin, just a couple of days ago calling him smart.

Take a look at this.

Donald Trump, Former President of the United States: The problem is not that Putin is smart, which, of course, he's smart, but the real problem is that our leaders are dumb.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

Donald Trump:

Dumb.

(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)

Donald Trump:

So dumb.

Tamara Keith:

So, Geoff…

Geoff Bennett:

And then you have Republican Senator Mitt Romney saying that Americans who defend Putin are almost treasonous.

What do you make of this?

Tamara Keith:

So, you could go back — and I did — and you can find Donald Trump saying essentially that very same thing in 2016 and in 2020. He has called Vladimir Putin smart, and he has called the U.S. leadership, NATO dumb repeatedly.

So he's pretty much consistent with what he's always been. He has however, upended — his very presence has up ended Republican orthodoxy. So now you have some Republicans tying themselves in knots trying to say, well, I can't condemn what Trump said, but Putin is a bad guy.

You have sort of this mess of not knowing what their messages, where, in the past, it was very clear Republicans and Democrats alike opposed Putin.

Geoff Bennett:

Yes.

Tamara Keith and Amy Walter, thanks, as always, for your great insights.

Amy Walter:

You're welcome.

Judy Woodruff:

And thanks to all three of you.

And please join us here tomorrow evening for live coverage of President Biden's State of the Union address, as well as the Republican response. Ahead of the speech, we will have full analysis of the latest developments in Ukraine, plus an in-depth look at the president's domestic achievements and setbacks during his first year in office.

That all begins at 8:00 p.m. Eastern here on PBS.