Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on Georgia’s Senate race, Trump’s comments on the Constitution

Amna Nawaz:

With all eyes on that Georgia run-off race tomorrow, that's where we begin with our Politics Monday team, Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter and Tamara Keith of NPR.

And welcome to you both.

Let's pick up where Laura left off there.

Amy, the Senate race now, the Georgia run-off, is not going to determine the balance of power in the Senate, right? So, what is really at stake? Why does this matter?

Amy Walter, The Cook Political Report:

Well, what's at stake for Democrats, I think, is a couple of things.

The first is, you're right, that they still have the majority with or without Georgia. But when you have 51 states, instead of 50, it changes the balance of power in terms of what they're able to do in committees. They actually have — they don't have to power-share with Republicans. That matters a lot in terms of the agenda going forward in the Senate.

I think the other important thing it does is, it helps to protect Democrats going into 2024. It gives them a little bit more of a cushion. The 2024 Senate map is as bad as the 2022 Senate map was good for Democrats. Remember, in 2024, Democrats have to defend West Virginia, Ohio, and Montana, all states that Trump won.

That means, if they lose just one of those states, they can still have the majority, assuming that the president wins reelection.

Amna Nawaz:

Tam, how do you look at it?

Tamara Keith, National Public Radio:

Well, as President Biden put it as he was phone banking for Raphael Warnock from Massachusetts late last week, in a 50/50 Senate, every senator is a president.

This is a line that he's used before with some frustration, because just one senator could derail his agenda, and did, and used that power to really shape the agenda for the president. So, if there are 51, then that makes a difference for the president and his agenda. Of course, not having the House means it's of limited utility.

But the other thing is that, right now, Democrats are just one heartbeat away from losing the majority. And that extra buffer of one more senator does make a difference.

Amna Nawaz:

A little wiggle room.

Tamara Keith:

Just a tiny bit.

Amna Nawaz:

I didn't imagine we would start talking about 2024 this early in the conversation, by the way.

Amy Walter:

I know.

Amna Nawaz:

But that's where we are.

I do want to ask you about something else, news from this weekend that is now forcing more tough questions for Republicans. These are some comments former President Trump made on TRUTH Social about the Constitution.

Here's what he said, for anyone who missed it. He doubled down on the election fraud lie, saying — quote — "A massive fraud of this type and magnitude allows for the termination of all rules, regulations and articles, even those found in the Constitution."

That then led to Republicans, including Congressman Dave Joyce of Ohio, being asked about that statement. Here's what he said on ABC yesterday:

Rep. Dave Joyce (R-OH):

Can't be really chasing every one of these crazy statements that come out about — from any of these candidates at the moment.

George Stephanopoulos, ABC "This Week" Anchor: But that's an extraordinary statement. You can't come out against someone who's for suspending the Constitution?

Rep. Dave Joyce:

Well, first off, he has no ability to suspend the Constitution. Secondly…

George Stephanopoulos:

But he says he's for it.

Rep. Dave Joyce:

Well, yes. He says a lot of things that — but that doesn't mean that it's ever going to happen.

Amna Nawaz:

Amy, he's talking about terminating the Constitution. Should this be this hard to answer?

Amy Walter:

I mean, this is, again, this dance that Republicans have to do almost every day is how to answer these questions they know they don't have the right answer for, right?

This is just becoming overwhelming. And yet, and yet, they refuse to continue to refuse to just call out Donald Trump, say, we don't want you to run again. We would like somebody else. We need somebody who's going to focus on the future, not somebody who wants to continue to talk about things like overturning the Constitution.

But they cannot as long as Donald Trump continues to have a pretty solid hold on the party, on the party's apparatus, and has still approval ratings in the 80s among Republican voters. So they find themselves in the place they have always been, which is hoping, just hoping that he either goes away, which obviously isn't going to happen, or that somebody finally beats him in a primary, but they can't say that out loud.

Amna Nawaz:

I should point out our colleague Lisa Desjardins has been chasing members of the Republican leadership trying to get comment from them. We did hear back from a few.

I want to point those out. Senator John Thune, the number two Republican in the Senate, had this to say: "Of course I disagree with that. I swear an oath to uphold the Constitution, the bedrock of our country. So I couldn't disagree more." We did hear from some other Republican lawmakers.

But, Tam, then there are folks like Senator Rick Scott, who kind of dodged answering the question, basically said, we need to enforce all of our laws, saying he believed Mr. Trump, who said that he was misunderstood.

What do you make about the way they're answering this?

Tamara Keith:

Right.

And so what I would say is that the former president did put out another truth today on TRUTH Social and sent it around, saying: Oh, I never said that. That's not what I said, which, this year's word of the year from Merriam-Webster is gaslighting. And that's what that is. And that is what the former president does constantly, where he says something that maybe is a little unclear, but seems to imply something.

And then he said, oh, no, I never said that thing as soon as people react. And so that's the danger that Republicans find themselves in, is, if they react too strongly before he says, oh, wait, I never meant to say that.

But let's just be very clear that, although in this post over the weekend, he talked about terminating articles of the Constitution, what he was arguing for on January 6, what he has been arguing for since, which is either a rerunning of the 2020 election or reinstating him as president, all of those things are out of line with the Constitution and would amount to terminating the Constitution.

And just the other thing to note, though, is that, as Amy points out, there are a large number of people who believe that he was — that they believe the lie. They believe that he should be in office. They believe that he should be reinstated now. And there are some subset of people who actually believe that's plausible.

Amna Nawaz:

And we will continue to see what Republican lawmakers have to say about that. I'm sure there will be another round of questions we will be putting to them.

I need to ask you about the other big news on the Democratic side, right, which is the new proposed presidential nominating calendar that President Biden has put forward. Instead of Iowa going first, South Carolina would now be going first.

Last night, Congressman from South Carolina Jim Clyburn put out a statement in response and said in part this: "I have been asked what the potential of South Carolina becoming the first primary state means for Black voters. My response is simply, we are seen."

Amy, Black voters have long been the backbone of the Democratic Party.

(CROSSTALK)

Amy Walter:

Absolutely.

And yet the — and yet the two first states, Iowa, New Hampshire, notoriously not diverse. It's interesting. Every four years, a party reevaluates the calendar, and they try to readjust based on what happened in the previous year. Sometimes, it's fighting the last war, or we had too much of — our process was too dragged out. We have got to shorten it. It was too short. We need to make it longer.

In this case, this benefits, first of all, Joe Biden, who, of course, was rehabilitated by South Carolina after coming in fourth and fifth in New Hampshire and Iowa.

Amna Nawaz:

Iowa.

Amy Walter:

Iowa first, New Hampshire second.

But, also, this has been something that's been in the works for years. This isn't just immediately benefiting Joe Biden. It's reflecting a frustration, I think, among Democratic voters that the core, as you pointed out, the base of the party, Black voters, don't get the representation that they deserve as early in the process, and that there's an overwhelming focus on two states, including Iowa, which is no longer particularly competitive.

Interestingly enough, though, it was Iowa that gave Barack Obama his boost…

Amna Nawaz:

That's right.

Amy Walter:

… in part because it allowed him to say, if a Black candidate for president can win in a state like Iowa, then I can win nationally.

Amna Nawaz:

How does this change the — does it change the nominating process? What kind of impact does it have?

Tamara Keith:

Well, I think we won't truly know whether South Carolina is the new Iowa, whether it can be that sort of launching point, for several cycles, especially if President Biden runs for reelection. Then it would be kind of irrelevant this cycle.

So, I think we aren't going to know the effect. And Biden has said, maybe in part to try to lessen the blow of this, that he thinks it should be revisited every four years. So, it may just completely — if that really happens, it would completely and totally scramble the nominating process.

The political professionals that set up shop in these states and know how to work these states and know each and every person who must be spoken to and whose backyard to go to, it would be scrambled.

I do — I will say, though, that there are several of these states now that have moved up or given more prominence that are swing states, purple states, Nevada, Michigan, Georgia. And New Hampshire is also a swing state.

Amna Nawaz:

I just want to say, you mentioned those political professionals setting up shop in Iowa.

Amy Walter has a knowing smile on her face there. She knows that Iowa cold.

(LAUGHTER)

Amy Walter:

I know where to go for dinner all through Iowa.

(LAUGHTER)

Amna Nawaz:

Amy Walter, Tamara Keith, good to talk to you.

Amy Walter:

Thank you.