Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on new polls ahead of midterms, candidates focusing on economy

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• Judy Woodruff:

  Speaking of politics, more than two million Americans have already cast their ballots in the midterm elections.

  And a new poll shows some good signs for the GOP in the final weeks; 49 percent of likely voters say they plan to vote for a Republican for Congress, compared with 45 percent who say they plan to vote for a Democrat. That is a five-point swing toward Republicans compared with the same New York Times and Siena College poll conducted last month.

  Here now to analyze this and more our Politics Monday team, Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter and Tamara Keith of NPR.

  Hello to both of you.

  Are you getting nervous? It's three weeks away.

• Amy Walter, The Cook Political Report:

  I can't wait. It's my favorite day of the year, Election Day.

• Judy Woodruff:

  Always.

• Amy Walter:

  Always.

• Judy Woodruff:

  Bigger than birthdays.

• Amy Walter:

  Absolutely.

• Judy Woodruff:

  All right, so we are three weeks away. And as you just saw in that poll, Amy, in New York Times/Siena, shift toward the Republicans, but not only that.

  Interesting. One of the questions in that poll asked people, what is your top issue? Back in July, 36 percent of respondents said it was the economy. Now it's 44 percent. That is an 8 percentage point shift.

  What should we take away from that?

• Amy Walter:

  With the obvious caveat, as we always do, this is one poll, et cetera…

• Judy Woodruff:

  Yes.

• Amy Walter:

  … this is what we're hearing as well when I talk to campaigns and strategists, that the bump that Democrats felt over the summer, I think it was a combination of the decision Roe vs. Wade, the so-called Dobbs decision, the fact that gas prices were going down a little bit, the intense focus on Donald Trump, Mar-a-Lago, January 6, et cetera, gave a really big boost to Democrats.

  It increased enthusiasm and it took the focus, at least the media focus, off the economy for a little while. But folks who are now tuning in, which there are a lot of voters who have not been paying attention over the summer. They're tuning in, now three weeks until the election.

  It shouldn't be that surprising, when we have 40-year high inflation, that the issue of the economy is what's really driving these voters. It's what they're really, really focused on. The other thing you will notice in that number is that it's not that the Democrats have lost ground. It's just that they haven't really gained ground. So they were at 45 percent earlier now, or at 46. Now they're at 45 percent, something like that.

  So, basically, what we're — what I'm hearing from — again, from sources in the campaigns is that Democrats may have maxed out that enthusiasm gap they got over the issue of abortion and that growing beyond that is going to be the challenge.

• Judy Woodruff:

  So, this focus, Tam, on the economy, it comes as President Biden is out on the campaign trail several times a week.

  And I want to play for everyone. This is something that Senator Bernie Sanders has said in the last few days about what Democrats ought to be doing. I'm going to come to you after this.

• Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT):

  I think Democrats have got the fight to make sure that it is women who control their own bodies, not the government. So I think this is a very important issue. But I don't believe it can be the only issue.

  It goes without saying that we have got to focus on the economy and demand that we have a government that works for all of us, and not just wealthy campaign contributors.

• Judy Woodruff:

  So you have Senator Sanders saying, don't go out and just talk about the abortion — about. Address what's on people's minds.

• Tamara Keith, National Public Radio:

  Right.

  And I have to say, I don't know what campaign Senator Sanders is watching, because the campaign that I'm seeing out in the field traveling this last week with President Biden, looking at campaign ads from Democratic campaigns, what you have is, yes, their primary negative message about Republican candidates in a lot of these races is that they are against choice, that they could restrict abortion, that they want a national ban on abortion.

  That is the leading negative message from Democrats in a lot of races. However, they have a positive message. And their positive message is, we just passed the Inflation Reduction Act. They say that they are focused on kitchen table issues that Americans care about, like the price of prescription drugs and the cost of energy.

  The Democrats, President Biden are talking — President Biden, he is giving a speech tomorrow about abortion, but I just spent four days with him, and I don't think he publicly even mentioned the issue. It was all about the economy again and again and again.

• Judy Woodruff:

  So, Amy, he's talking about the economy. But what — what's coming across to voters?

• Amy Walter:

  Well, I was talking to a Democratic pollster today who said, look, the policies themselves, if you break it out and ask about the specifics in these pieces of legislation that Democrats have passed, specifically, the Inflation Reduction Act, they're popular.

  This sounds very familiar. It's like Obamacare. The individual pieces of Obamacare are popular, but, overall, voters still give low ratings to the president and to Democrats on, who do you trust on inflation and who do you trust on the economy, which is why you're seeing as many ads, especially in these big battleground swing districts, where Democrats are talking about what Republicans would do if they got in charge.

  So we're hearing things about Social Security and, in the case of Arizona, a candidate, Republican candidate there, who has mentioned wanting to privatize Social Security, or the issues of, as Senator Sanders talked about, trying to make Republicans the party of the special interests and big business, so not necessarily — I think they appreciate, we're the party in charge. We're going to get the blame when things are going wrong.

  It's hard to make people feel the economy's better if they don't think it. But the risk — what Democrats are saying is, the risk of change is more dangerous than sticking with the status quo that you're disappointed in.

• Tamara Keith:

  And I will say, just as I was on the road with President Biden, on a couple of occasions, he was asked by reporters economic questions, and he was a bit dismissive.

  He said the economy is really strong when asked if he had any concerns about the economy. And I asked him about gas prices in Southern California, which are around $7 a gallon.

• Judy Woodruff:

  Right.

• Tamara Keith:

  And he said, oh, well, gas prices are always high in California.

  They're not always that high.

• Judy Woodruff:

  Yes, so talking about it, but making the case is something else.

  Something else we have seen in the last few days — and, Tam, I'm going to come to you first on this.

• Tamara Keith:

  Yes.

• Judy Woodruff:

  Former President Trump on his — one of his favorite social media platforms made this statement. This is after he looked at a recent poll about where American Jewish voters are, and his support among American Jewish voters, very low.

  But here's his reaction. He said: "No president has done more for Israel than I have. Somewhat surprisingly, however, our wonderful evangelicals are far more appreciative of this than the people of the Jewish faith, especially those living in the U.S. U.S. Jews have to get their act together and appreciate what they have in Israel before it is too late!"

• Tamara Keith:

  This is not the first time that he has accused American Jews of disloyalty or of sort of tiptoeing around the antisemitic trope of dual loyalty, that they should be loyal to Israel, or that they are loyal to Israel.

  And President Trump — former President Trump, he's someone who just feels like everyone should support him if he's ever done anything for them.

• Amy Walter:

  Yes. It's transactional. His politics have always been transactional: I did something for you. You should support me. I don't understand why this is a problem for you.

  But — and he also — he also touches into the issue of the fact that he does believe that he deserves support from voters simply because he has delivered on one piece of…

• Judy Woodruff:

  Yes, delivered on a…

• Amy Walter:

  On a policy.

• Judy Woodruff:

  On a — that affects Israel.

  But, just quickly, is this the kind of thing, quickly, Amy, that could change or affect vote?

• Amy Walter:

  I think, with so many things that Donald Trump says, much of the reason he does it is because he wants us to talk about him, and he wants us to make sure that — he wants to still be in the conversation.

  I think that, for so many voters, they hear this, they either choose to not process it and leave it be or it reinforces feelings they already have about this president.

• Judy Woodruff:

  And here we are talking about it.

• Amy Walter:

  And here we are.

• Tamara Keith:

  Here we are.

• Judy Woodruff:

  Amy Walter, Tamara Keith, see you next Monday.