Tamara Keith and Amy Walter on the fallout after the Roe leak, Democrats’ midterm strategy

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• Judy Woodruff:

  Last week's report that the Supreme Court plans to overturn Roe v. Wade put one of the country's most divisive political issues back on center stage. Abortion is suddenly again a dominant issue in Congress, in statehouses and on the campaign trail.

  Joining me to assess the political fallout of this and more are Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report With Amy Walter and Tamara Keith of NPR.

  Hello to both of you. Welcome to the "NewsHour," Politics Monday.

  And, as you just heard, there's a lot to talk about.

  Let's — that bombshell leak is still having repercussions.

  Tam, we are seeing fallout. Let's talk about the states first. You're seeing movement in some of the states, like Louisiana. They have been moving toward more restrictions. We're seeing that. We're also seeing some states that want to preserve abortion rights moving to codify it.

  What does it add up to?

• Tamara Keith, National Public Radio:

  Well, and what you had just today is Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer saying that they can't wait for Congress to do something. In fact, they can't wait for Congress to do something, because Congress is not going to do something.

  There are a number of states where there are ballot measures being circulated for constitutional amendments. Some of those would expand abortion access or put in the Constitution that it is a right to have reproductive rights. Others would restrict abortion access.

  And what you are going to see if this draft opinion becomes official is what you saw in the past, which is a real patchwork, where some states will become havens for people seeking reproductive services, and other states will become no-go zones for abortion.

• Judy Woodruff:

  And, Amy, it does get more complicated in states with divided government. There's some real battles that are going to play out.

  Amy Walter , The Cook Political Report: Well, that's why Governor Whitmer in Michigan said, look, I'm not going to get anything done with the legislature.

• Judy Woodruff:

  Right.

• Amy Walter:

  It's a Republican legislature.

  So, she and the state attorney general are suing the state, arguing that, within the Constitution, there is a right to privacy. I think we're going to see that in other states where you have Democratic governor, Republican legislators.

  But what we're also seeing is attorneys general saying, well, in many states that do have the so-called trigger laws that go back to the previous law before Roe vs. Vs. Wade that outlawed abortion, that we're not going to enforce it.

  And I think that's going to be another battleground. It's not just attorneys general, but maybe even prosecutors in counties or areas — maybe, if you're in a red state, a blue area that says we're not going to prosecute, or, in a blue area, you might have a very committed person who's a county commissioner — or a county prosecutor that decides they're going to try to do something more.

  So, this battle, it's not just between the states. It's likely to be within the states as well.

• Judy Woodruff:

  So, a patchwork across the country. And, meantime, here in Washington, Tam, at the federal level, you are seeing those who support abortion rights moving the House and the Senate, where they face a really tough set of rules.

• Tamara Keith:

  Certainly. There's this thing. We have talked about it before.

• Amy Walter:

  Yes.

• Tamara Keith:

  There's a filibuster.

• Judy Woodruff:

  I was going to let you say the word first.

  (LAUGHTER)

• Tamara Keith:

  And it's insurmountable in the Senate right now for Democrats. They simply don't have the votes. It's not even clear that they all completely agree on the path forward.

  And yet they are going to try to take a vote. They're going to bring this up. Leader Schumer is going to bring it up, because they have to show that they're trying. They have to show that they are doing something, even though the results are unlikely to satisfy just about anyone.

  And the challenge that a lot of Democrats face in this midterm year is that there's a lot of frustration among base voters that they — there are a lot of things that they — that Democrats haven't accomplished. And Democrats keep saying, well, just elect Democrats and then we can preserve this or we can do this.

  And there are great limits to that. And there's frustration among voters.

• Judy Woodruff:

  And, meantime, Amy, we heard — we have seen — I think what some people didn't expect was the Senate minority leader, Mitch McConnell in an interview over the weekend — and I'm just going to quote — he says: "If this leaked opinion became the final opinion, legislative bodies, not only at the state level, but at the federal level, certainly could legislate in that area," suggesting, it sounds like, that he's thinking about a federal rule against abortion rights.

• Amy Walter:

  And this goes to Tam's point, which is, Democrats can make the argument, well, maybe we can't go on the offense, but at least we can be there on defense.

• Judy Woodruff:

  Right.

• Amy Walter:

  The reason to keep Democrats in office is to ensure that Republicans don't get 60 votes, that they're never going to be able to reach a point where they can push through more restrictive federal laws.

• Judy Woodruff:

  And — but, I mean, Tam, this was not what people expected…

• Tamara Keith:

  Yes.

  (CROSSTALK)

• Judy Woodruff:

  … right now.

• Tamara Keith:

  Well, in some ways, this is surprising, because he's giving a really great talking point to Democrats, who are headed into a challenging year.

  He's giving them something to talk about. But — and what's fascinating about it is that McConnell is — he is very restrained. They were — they spent all of last week saying, we're not going to talk about this. We're only going to talk about the leak.

  And so it is remarkable to then see them go in this direction.

• Judy Woodruff:

  Interesting.

  All right. So, meanwhile, we — we're all talking about what voters are going to be voting on when the midterms happen later this year.

  But, Amy, right now, we are hearing from the White House that, tomorrow, President Biden is going to roll out a kind — I guess you could say a new message, a new argument for why his approach to the economy is better than the other guys'. And he's going to talk about — not going to use the word Trump, apparently, but speak, as we — ultra — about ultra-MAGA Republicans.

  What does this gain them, do you think?

• Amy Walter:

  Yes.

  They need to make this election, Democrats do, not a referendum on the current economy or opinions about this current president, but they would like to make it a choice. Do you want to elect Republican fill in the blank candidate who supports, as Mitch McConnell noted, a federal ban?

  Do you support Republicans like fill in the blank who did not support the January 6 investigation? So, keeping the focus on the more extreme or the places where Republicans are really uncomfortable, and off of the places that Republicans would like to talk much more about, which, of course, is the economy, inflation.

• Judy Woodruff:

  So, trying to draw a sharper contrast.

• Amy Walter:

  Yes.

• Judy Woodruff:

  Is that what this is all about?

• Tamara Keith:

  Well, and the whole ultra-MAGA idea also is targeted directly at independent voters.

  So Democrats think all Republicans are bad, but independent voters don't think all Republicans are bad. And this is a way for the president, who has had this sort of bipartisan image that he has fostered and that he believes in, it allows him to say, look, not all Republicans are bad. It's just the ultra-MAGA Republicans that are the problem.

  The other thing, as Amy says, they are trying to draw this contrast, because they don't want to simply talk about the economy and sort of cede the economy to Republicans, who generally, in polls, over time, the public has generally felt that Republicans are better on the economy. They want to be able to say, the president, Democrats are better on the economy because of this.

• Judy Woodruff:

  And I was just going to say, and Amy, when you see something like this, you know the White House has spent some time researching it.

• Amy Walter:

  Yes. That's right.

• Judy Woodruff:

  They have been looking at what arguments might play well, shall we say.

• Amy Walter:

  Right. Yes.

  And to say, look, you may not like the direction that we're going in at this moment in time, but let me tell you the good things that we have done. That's what you will hear from Democrats. And as one Democratic strategist said to me, things may not be going that great right now, but these Republicans are extreme. It's even more dangerous to put them in office than to keep us here.

  That is — again, any party that is in charge of all three branches, that is a very common message that they make when things aren't going well for them. But voters are much more attuned to paying attention to what is scary for them right now than what could potentially be scary for them in the future.

  What Democrats are hoping is, voters remember what it was like on January 6. This wasn't just hypothetical.

• Judy Woodruff:

  And this abortion ruling…

• Amy Walter:

  That's right. Same.

• Judy Woodruff:

  … which is coming in the weeks ahead…

• Amy Walter:

  Is real. It's not hypothetical.

• Judy Woodruff:

  … they believe will help them make that argument.

• Amy Walter:

  Right.

• Tamara Keith:

  But this is also a clear indication that they know that the economy is going to be a very big deal, that inflation will be a big deal. And they need a message on that too.

• Amy Walter:

  Yes.

• Judy Woodruff:

  Tamara Keith, Amy Walter, thank you both, Politics Monday.

• Amy Walter:

  You're welcome.

• Tamara Keith:

  You're welcome.

• Amy Walter:

  Thank you.