Tensions rise between the U.S. and China after Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan

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• Judy Woodruff:

  It was one of the most controversial and perhaps consequential visits to Taiwan in decades.

  The speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, has now left the self-governing island, but the fallout remains to be seen.

  Nick Schifrin looks at her trip and what comes next.

• Nick Schifrin:

  In Taipei's presidential office building today, the second in line to the U.S. presidency received Taiwan's highest civilian honor, and presented U.S. support as part of a global struggle.

• Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA):

  Today, the world faces a choice between democracy and autocracy. America's determination to preserve democracy here in Taiwan and around the world remains ironclad.

• Nick Schifrin:

  Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's trip lasted 19 hours. She led a congressional delegation to meet President Tsai Ing-wen…

• Rep. Nancy Pelosi:

  Thank you so much for your presence.

• Nick Schifrin:

  … Taiwanese lawmakers and a speech broadcast on local TV, and visited the National Human Rights Museum, which acknowledges Taiwan's past history of martial law.

  Pelosi also met with famous pro-democracy advocates who have been jailed by Beijing and who helped lead the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests.

  Robert MacNeil, "PBS NewsHour": Chinese police abruptly halted a Tiananmen Square ceremony by three members of the U.S. Congress today.

• Nick Schifrin:

  Her trip culminates more than three decades of criticizing Chinese human rights, from Tiananmen Square.

• Rep. Nancy Pelosi:

  The massacre was shocking to us, as it was to everyone in the world.

• Nick Schifrin:

  Tibet.

• Rep. Nancy Pelosi:

  The situation in Tibet has challenged the conscience of the world.

• Nick Schifrin:

  And Xinjiang.

• Rep. Nancy Pelosi:

  This genocide must end now.

• Nick Schifrin:

  But China considers Taiwan a breakaway province and Pelosi's trip a threat to its sovereignty.

  Hua Chunying, Spokeswoman, Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs (through translator): What Pelosi has done is by no means a defense of democracy, but a violation of China's territorial integrity. The relevant measures will be strong.

• Nick Schifrin:

  Those measures so far, Chinese naval drills in the Taiwan Strait, and, today, fighter jets crossed the median line that splits the strait, which is just 80 miles wide at its most narrow.

  Beijing vows now to hold military exercises in six areas around the island, including inside territorial Taiwanese waters, the largest drills since 1995. Taiwan calls that reckless.

  Capt. Yu Jian-Chang, Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense (through translator): China's announcement on its drills is equal to sea and air blockades. It has severely infringed our country's territorial sovereignty.

• Nick Schifrin:

  And to discuss Speaker Pelosi's trip, I'm joined by Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia Program at the German Marshall Fund, a think tank, and Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, a foreign policy institute here in Washington, D.C.

  Welcome to both of you to the "NewsHour."

  Bonnie Glaser, let me start with you.

  Should Speaker Pelosi have gone to Taiwan?

• Bonnie Glaser, German Marshall Fund:

  Well, I think that Speaker Pelosi should have gone to Taiwan at another time.

  I really do think that it's the timing of this visit that makes it particularly sensitive or dangerous even. The Chinese certainly viewed the timing of the visit, I think, as provocative.

  The problem is, this is in the run-up to the 20th Party Congress. It's right a day or two after the PLA anniversary and the leadership meetings that are coming up in Beidaihe that take place every summer. And I think that there was pressure on Xi Jinping to demonstrate a very strong resolve, to warn the United States and Taiwan to not go further down the path of threatening Chinese interests.

• Nick Schifrin:

  Yun Sun, do you agree that the upcoming Party Congress later this year almost forces Xi Jinping to escalate?

• Yun Sun, Stimson Center:

  Well, I feel that the argument can be made from both ways, that the fact that the Party Congress is coming up could be a factor that puts pressure on Xi Jinping to act.

  But at the same time, you could also argue that, because Party Congress is so close, it's only three months later, Xi Jinping's top priority is domestic and his priority is stability. And, therefore, he's not going to take forceful act in terms of the military response.

  So, I feel that this Party Congress is really a factor that could be argued on both sides.

• Nick Schifrin:

  Bonnie Glaser, why does Beijing seem so upset about this trip, as you say, and the timing of it, but also what President Biden has been saying?

  You referred to U.S. policy. He has referred in the last year three times to the possibility that the U.S. would support Taiwan militarily.

• Bonnie Glaser:

  Well, actually, I think that the president has the prerogative to say that he would come to Taiwan's defense, and he believes that that would strengthen deterrence. And, yes, he has said that three times.

  What is more problematic, from my perspective, is that the president has repeatedly said we have a commitment to do so. He is, of course, referring to the Taiwan Relations Act from 1979, which does have some obligations that the United States has, particularly supplying weapons to Taiwan.

  But the United States, since 1979, when we broke our mutual defense treaty with Taiwan, does not have a commitment to come to Taiwan's defense. So, I think that that, in particular, has been confusing, and probably in China has been interpreted with some concern.

• Nick Schifrin:

  Yun Sun, what has not been confusing this week is Beijing's anger and some of the live-fire drills and some of the training exercises that Beijing has launched just in the last few days in response to Speaker Pelosi's visit.

  But do you believe — or do you see those as particularly aggressive?

• Yun Sun:

  Actually, no.

  Actually, I see Beijing's response has been underwhelming, especially if you put it into context of what the Chinese threats had been before the Pelosi visit to Taiwan. The Chinese threatened a no-fly zone. They threatened missile exercises. They threatened a forced Taiwan Strait crisis if Speaker of the House Pelosi was going to visit Taiwan.

  But we also know that none of those particularly provocative or react — aggressive military actions were taken before she landed in Taiwan. Now that she is gone, she's out of Taiwan, and the Chinese are putting on live-fire military exercises, they're also announcing sanctions on Taiwanese products. They also announced that the ban of export on natural sand to Taiwan, so, which means to me that the Chinese reaction to the Pelosi visit has been primarily focused on punishing Taiwan, rather than reacting to the United States.

• Nick Schifrin:

  Bonnie Glaser, has the response been underwhelming, as Yun Sun just said?

• Bonnie Glaser:

  Well, I do disagree, particularly if you look at the declared closure zones, which is where China is going to fire missiles. They are very close to Taiwan.

  And, in some cases, they overlap with Taiwan's territorial sea and airspace. That's within 12 nautical miles of the island. So we will find out when these live missile exercises begin, which is on Thursday. But it looks like the Chinese plan to fire missiles in Taiwan's airspace, and perhaps actually fly aircraft in that airspace.

  The tabloid Global Times, which not authoritative, but sometimes is correct, has said that China will fly its aircraft over Taiwan. Any of those things would be extremely provocative. And what I'd like to highlight is that these closure zones are close to Taiwan's ports. They are close to its international airport. This is very clearly a signal of capability to blockade Taiwan.

  So that is dangerous and provocative and escalatory.

• Nick Schifrin:

  Yun Sun, how dangerous are the next few days?

• Yun Sun:

  So, it could get out of hand, because the Chinese, in fact, are trying to gauge how Taiwan is going to react to these series of military activities planned by China and whether — more importantly for the Chinese, whether the United States will come to Taiwan's support or Taiwan's rescue, in terms of the Chinese planned military exercises.

• Nick Schifrin:

  And quickly, Bonnie Glaser, the longer-term impact of Speaker Pelosi's trip not only in Beijing and Taipei, but also here, tracking the Senate Foreign Relations Committee considering the Taiwan Policy Act, which would dramatically increase U.S. military support to Taiwan?

• Bonnie Glaser:

  Yes, I think there is bipartisan support in Congress for increasing military support, perhaps providing foreign military financing for Taiwan, so actual resources, and selling more offensive weapons going forward, maybe even designating Taiwan as a non-NATO ally.

  All of those provisions are in the Taiwan Policy Act. We do not know whether it will pass. But it is indicative of the growing sense of urgency in the United States, in Congress, also, I believe, in the executive branch, that the United States has to do more to help Taiwan defend itself.

• Nick Schifrin:

  Yun Sun, quickly, just in the time we have, growing sense of urgency in a bipartisan way in Washington?

• Yun Sun:

  I think that is quite obvious for the Chinese as well, that they understand that U.S. support for Taiwan is only going to become stronger as time passes by.

  But the question for Beijing is that, should they take actions now, if they know that the future is only going to be more difficult for China to achieve its unification agenda? And there is a voice asking for it. But the counterargument is that, well, if China takes some action now, can China really succeed?

  And I think that's where the Chinese military becomes more reluctant to provide a straight answer. So, yes, indeed, the situation is extremely dangerous. And when we look down the road, it probably will get even more tense as the interactions continue.

• Nick Schifrin:

  Yun Sun, Bonnie Glaser, thanks very much to you both.

• Yun Sun:

  Thank you.

• Bonnie Glaser:

  Thank you.