The political fallout from the felony charges against Trump

Geoff Bennett:

Following his historic arrest and arraignment, former President Donald Trump returned last night to his Florida estate, where he delivered a defiant and embittered address to the nation.

While his indictment has been written into the history books, the political impact is an account still being written.

We're going to speak shortly with two GOP strategists, but, first, a look at how Republicans are responding to Mr. Trump's escalating legal troubles.

Donald Trump, Former President of the United States: I never thought anything like this could happen in America.

Geoff Bennett:

Former President Donald Trump delivering a speech Tuesday night that was both a rebuttal to prosecutors and an attempted reboot of his presidential campaign former campaign hours after becoming the first former president charged with a crime.

Donald Trump:

The only crime that I have committed is to fearlessly defend our nation from those who seek to destroy it.

Geoff Bennett:

In a Manhattan courtroom Tuesday afternoon, Mr. Trump was silent, apart from answering "Not guilty" to 34 felony criminal charges.

But, back at his Mar-a-Lago home Tuesday night, before hundreds of supporters, the former president pulled a page from his playbook, slamming the indictment as politically motivated.

Donald Trump:

This fake case was brought only to interfere with the upcoming 2024 election, and it should be dropped immediately.

Geoff Bennett:

Casting himself as the victim of political persecution and previewing his criminal defense, but mostly rehashing false claims of a stolen 2020 election.

Donald Trump:

They can't beat us at the ballot box, so they try and beat us through the law.

Geoff Bennett:

Mr. Trump's next court date is not until December, putting the case on a collision course with the 2024 Republican presidential primary.

The rest of the announced and potential GOP presidential contenders were largely quiet Tuesday, as Mr. Trump's allies in Congress defended him on social media. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy blasting the district attorney as "attempting to interfere in our democratic process."

Texas Senator Ted Cruz calling it a "mockery of the rule of law." Even Republican Senator Mitt Romney, who twice voted for Mr. Trump's impeachment and still believes Mr. Trump is unfit for office, said the charges set a dangerous precedent.

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham took to FOX on the former president's behalf asking for 2024 votes and cash.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC):

Please help President Trump, if you can afford five or 10 bucks. If you can't afford $1, fine. Just pray.

Geoff Bennett:

The Trump campaign is swamping inboxes with fund-raising e-mails, offering T-shirts with fake mug shots, and raking in millions.

That is as Mr. Trump blasts the case and three other investigations that could eventually lead to additional charges.

And joining us now are two Republican strategists who are following all of this.

Whit Ayres is the president of North Star Opinion Research. He has consulted for Republicans, including Senators Marco Rubio and Lindsey Graham and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. And Doug Heye is with us. He's worked for the RNC and the George W. Bush administration.

With a welcome to you both, Whit, let's start with Mitt Romney's position here, because I find that to be really instructive and illuminating, because, rather than criticize Donald Trump for his alleged criminality, Mitt Romney, someone who twice voted for his impeachment, Donald Trump's impeachment, is effectively coming to his defense.

And even if you agree with him on the merits that this case is political, it really illustrates the inherent complexities Republicans have in trying to dethrone Donald Trump or move on from Donald Trump, if that's what they want to do.

Whit Ayres, President, North Star Opinion Research:

Geoff, if I were trying to design a case that would make it easy for Republicans to dismiss the case as a partisan witch-hunt, I would design exactly the case we saw yesterday in Manhattan.

Geoff Bennett:

Wow. Why?

Whit Ayres:

You take a local law where it's normally a misdemeanor, link it to a federal election through a novel and completely untested legal theory, in a case brought by a Democratic prosecutor who, when he was running for the office he holds, boasted that he had sued the Trump administration more than 100 times.

Is it any wonder that people who are not normally defenders of Donald Trump find this one to be a real stretch?

Geoff Bennett:

Doug, how do you see it?

Doug Heye, Republican Strategist:

So, Whit is a lot smarter than I am, which is why he walks through some of the theories that are untested and so forth.

But there's also the other reality here is, you're hearing Republicans starting to say — starting to sound a lot like Democrats did in Bill Clinton's impeachment. We're hearing not Mitt Romney, but a lot of the others are basically saying, even presidents have private lives. And it's Democrats who are sounding like Republicans in 1998, talking about the rule of law.

Donald Trump has turned our politics upside-down so many so many times we don't know which way is up. We're seeing that again in all of this. And the argument that the Trump people are making on this, similar to Bill Clinton — ultimately was successful real for Bill Clinton — where the United States Senate said, you're right. Presidents have private lives, and maybe we shouldn't deal with all of the paperwork and nastiness, the process around that.

Geoff Bennett:

You are both highly regarded political strategists. I'm hesitant to ask you to give us free political advice. I'm going to do it anyway.

If you were advising one of these Republican contenders to Donald Trump, how would you advise them to handle this, especially when you have this case, running parallel, it seems, with the 2024 presidential race?

Whit Ayres:

Geoff, there's no possible way to break through the cacophony. The best that a contender can do right now is look, sound and act like a potential president and wait for some of these other investigations to play out, investigations with far more serious charge than we saw in Manhattan, and with much more severe consequences.

We don't know what's coming, but it's hard to imagine that those cases would have no effect on President — former President Trump's political standing.

Geoff Bennett:

If elections are all about contrasts, I mean, this is quite a contrast. Why wouldn't a candidate try to take advantage of that?

Doug Heye:

Because you still have a Republican base that's very loyal to Donald Trump.

And we have seen so often over these past few years, when is a Republican going to stand up to Donald Trump? When is a Republican going to speak out, whether it's Paul Ryan, or Kevin McCarthy, or anyone else?

And the reality is, they know where the Republican base is. What's different, not in this case, but potentially in the future ones, is, it gets to what Yogi Berra used to talk about. When you come to a fork in the road, you take it. Republicans haven't taken it before. But if Georgia or the Department of Justice makes a real motion against Donald Trump, they're going to be in a different place to potentially take that fork in the road.

It's why Mike Pence may be the most interesting Republican in the conversation right now. We want to talk about unprecedented. A vice president being willing to testify against his president, we have never seen that before. And Mike Pence has maybe not as much credibility with the MAGA core of the base, but certainly a lot of credibility with rank-and-file Republicans.

Geoff Bennett:

In the time that remains, I want to ask you both about what happened last night in Wisconsin. Democrats won a crucial seat on the state Supreme Court.

It's a big sign that abortion is still a motivating factor for voters even in an off-year election. And Wisconsin elections, as you both know, are usually pretty close, usually decided by some 20,000 votes. This one was decided by 200,000 votes. And the liberal in this case, the candidate, beat the Trump-backed Republican by 10 points.

How do you read that? How do you read those results?

Whit Ayres:

Geoff, we know from the 2022 midterm elections that overturning Roe vs. Wade really energized the Democratic base around the issue of abortion.

That was one of the main reasons Republicans had a poor night, that and some really atrocious candidates that were nominated. So, I think what we're seeing here is the effect of the abortion issue on the debate, even in a swing state like Wisconsin.

Geoff Bennett:

Well, moving forward, Doug, I mean, Republicans are losing races, it appears, in the suburbs of Atlanta, in the suburbs of Philadelphia, now in the suburbs of Milwaukee.

How does the Republican Party support itself moving forward in this sort of electoral dimension?

Doug Heye:

Well, you have very different parties. You have Washington, D.C., and you have the rest of the country. And their priorities are different.

And what it means practically is that abortion is going to remain a topic for Republicans up and down the ballot, because we have moved — the Dobbs decision moved abortion from something in theory to an issue in practice and a mobilizer for Democrats. It's the old case of be careful what you wish for; it might come true.

It came true for Republicans. They're going to have to decide if it was worth it politically. But, meanwhile, as states have trigger laws or just enact other laws, it's not — it's keeping that issue alive.

Geoff Bennett:

So, again, I mean, how would you advise candidates to deal with this on this abortion issue that appears to be a political loser?

And we should say that conservatives who care about this issue as an article of faith, they don't view it necessarily as a political issue. That abortion is no longer a constitutional right for them is enough.

Whit Ayres:

Geoff, the vast majority of Americans are not at the extremes on the abortion issue.

Most Americans believe abortion should be allowed in some circumstances, but not others. And so we debate the circumstances. What candidates who want to be competitive nationally should not do is take a very extreme position one side or the other. But I'm convinced our grandchildren will be arguing about the issue of abortion.

Doug Heye:

Big takeaway from 2022, the voters sent one message over any other: Don't be crazy. They don't want to vote for crazy people.

And when you take these extreme positions, you lose otherwise winnable races. And Republicans have learned that lesson, especially on this issue, in 2022, 2014, 2012, 2010.

Geoff Bennett:

Yes.

Well, as we wrap up this conversation, returning to this issue of former President Donald Trump and his perceived electability, in any sort of other political universe, if the Republicans lost the House, as they did in 2018, lost the 2020 presidential election, as they did previously, and then in 2022 underperformed as a result of Donald Trump's influence, that would have been enough for the party to break with that standard-bearer.

And yet that's not happening. Why not? 4

Whit Ayres:

Geoff, I'm reminded of the old Mark Twain line that there's no education in the second kick of a mule.

Republicans lost because of Donald Trump in 2018, 2020, 2021, and 2022. I'm hopeful that Republicans will decide that there's no education in the fifth kick of a mule.

Geoff Bennett:

Whit Ayres and Doug Heye, thank you so much for your insights.

Doug Heye:

A lot of mule kicks this week.

(LAUGHTER)

Whit Ayres:

Thank you.