The significance of Turkey’s election as Erdogan’s control hangs in the balance

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• John Yang:

  Good evening, I`m John Yang. In Turkey, officials are counting the votes from today`s election to see a President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will continue his two decade hold on power. The state run news agency indicates that Erdogan may be headed for a runoff in two weeks. The election with a unified opposition represented the greatest political challenge yet to Erdogan`s increasingly authoritarian rule.

  The Challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu narrowly led Erdogan in pre-election surveys. He`s a retired civil servant and ran on the promise of restoring democracy which Erdogan had eroded. Some Turkish voters went to the polls today in mood for change.

• Murat Kacmaz, Ankara Resident (through translator):

  For me, this feels like a parting of ways I don`t know how to describe it. I can`t think of a more important election.

• John Yang:

  While we await the final vote count we turn to Soner Cagaptay, who`s head of the Turkish research program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. His most recent book is "A Sultan in Autumn: Erdogan Faces Turkey`s Uncontainable Forces."

  To use your terms, what are the uncontainable forces that are driving her to want to run off tonight?

  Soner Cagaptay, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy: I would say that economy is his Achilles heel Iran has won elections until recently on a platform was slowing economic growth. And he`s never won elections while not delivering growth.

  At the same time, he came pretty close to clinching victory this time. So, economy was a big factor going in to the elections for him and the earthquake should have hurt his popularity. Aid agencies were nowhere to deliver aid after this devastating and sad earthquake.

  But his strength is his information control or control over information flow rather. In the last half a decade, Erdogan has eliminated autonomy of many of Turkey`s institutions, from courts to foreign ministry to the central bank, with grave ramifications for country`s economy foreign policy, but also electoral boards and media.

  90 percent of the media is aligned with them and 80 percent of Turkeys citizens cannot read languages other than Turkish. So you can curate reality.

  And in the run up to these elections, citizens did not hear about inflation, human rights abuses, journalists and politicians in jail or relief agencies that failed to provide aid after the earthquake. But how Erdogan has made Turkey a great military industrial power.

  He repeated this argument over and over in the media, given that a large majority of citizens basically read the news that he curated.

  So I think this is the first election won in the world, Erdogan being the inventor of nativist populist politics in this century globally, the first election won on a platform of post truth narrative, meaning you spread lies, you repeat them so much that they become reality, and you win elections based on that. And people forgot that these lives to begin with.

• John Yang:

  This election is being closely watched in western capitals, here in Washington and at the Kremlin. Why — what`s it stake for those parties?

• Soner Cagaptay:

  A lot is at stake. Turkey is a second largest military, NATO, it borders Iran, Iraq, Syria. It plays a role in the war in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin decided last year that he wanted Erdogan want to win. As the economy in Turkey went into problems and hyperinflation under Erdogan`s large amounts of cash was transferred from Russia to Turkey, Erdogan handed these out in the form of very generous social security benefits, as well as cheap natural gas from Russia that he basically gave free to voters in the run up to elections.

  And I think that helped perhaps put him close to the finishing line. Putin wants Erdogan to win because Erdogan is like-minded leader that helps Putin challenge the U.S. led liberal international order. So I think Putin is quite happy tonight that Erdogan did not lose.

  We have a runoff likely in two weeks, and Putin will continue to support Erdogan financially and through information operations, because he cannot afford to see Erdogan lose when he`s not winning himself in Ukraine.

• John Yang:

  And tell us about the opponent he`s going to face in the runoff Kilicdaroglu. How much of his strength tonight is support for him how much is an opposition to Erdogan?

• Soner Cagaptay:

  Absolutely, Kilicdaroglu is a soft spoken politician opposite of Erdogan. Erdogan is a populace. He demonizes and brutalizes and cracks down on demographics unlikely to vote for him. Kilicdaroglu follow the campaign where he reached out across the aisle, tried to bridge Turkey traditional left, right split him being on the left side, of course.

  And perhaps it worked. He was able to unite opposition forces, but he couldn`t really get to, I think the 50 percent margin. And in this regard, I think Erdogan played a really masterful game. Kilicdaroglu`s party was supported by a pro-Kurdish faction. Erdogan branded this faction as quote unquote, terrorists.

  And as I said, post truth narrative. If you repeat a lie enough, many times it becomes reality. I think some voters were convinced that support for Kilicdaroglu`s opposition Kurdish party meant support by terrorists factions, and he probably lost some support as a result of that.

• John Yang:

  If Erdogan wins the runoff or if it goes to the runoff, and Erdogan wins the runoff. Do you think his assault on democracy will continue?

• Soner Cagaptay:

  I have so far argue that Turkey is, you know, countries could be vegetables. I`ve said that Turkey is the onion, why? The analytically onion because it doesn`t have a core. You peel it you think you got to the core and it`s not there.

  So taking that analogy, I always argued that Turkey is not an autocracy, not a democracy. It is a democracy that has fallen under an autocrat. It`s trying to make a comeback. It didn`t succeed quiet will seem to run off what happens.

  If Erdogan wins again, I think Turkey will become a complete autocracy. The remaining institutions that have maintained their autonomy will fold under him, the few courts and others. The last vestiges of rule of law will disappear. Erdogan wall will become a anointed as the country`s new sultan, educated Turks and youth will flee the country having up any given up any hope that lost hope that he can be voted out. And I think that unfortunately, Turkey will descend into deeper autocracy.

• John Yang:

  Soner Cagaptay, thank you very much.

• Soner Cagaptay:

  It`s my pleasure, thank you.