Ukraine warns Russia may be plotting dirty bomb attack

Judy Woodruff:

It has been exactly eight months since Russia launched a full-scale war in Ukraine. And, today, Moscow escalated its nuclear rhetoric.

Russian officials are warning that Ukraine is about to release radiation using a so-called dirty bomb.

As Nick Schifrin reports, international leaders are warning that the allegation is actually a cover for Russia's own plans.

Nick Schifrin:

Today, Russia told the world publicly it expected a dirty bomb to explode in Ukraine.

The top commander for Russia's radiation, chemical and biological forces:

Lt. Gen. Igor Kirillov, Head of Russian Radiation, Chemical and Biological Forces (through translator): The Ministry of Defense has organized work to counter possible provocations from Ukraine.

Nick Schifrin:

Russia's top diplomat, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov:

Sergey Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister (through translator):

We have concrete information regarding Ukrainian scientific institutes having technologies which allow them to make a dirty bomb.

Nick Schifrin:

Russia's defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, made the same allegation in an unprecedented series of phone calls with NATO defense ministers. He spoke twice in three days with U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, after not speaking at all since May.

He spoke twice in two days with British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace. And he spoke to defense ministers in France and Turkey. In response, last night, the U.S., United Kingdom, and France issued a rare joint statement: "The world would see through any attempt to use this allegation as a pretext for escalation."

Ned Price, State Department Spokesman:

We're concerned when we hear this type of patently false disinformation emanating from the Kremlin.

Nick Schifrin:

In Washington, State Department spokesman Ned Price said Russia has falsely accused other countries of what it was about to do.

Ned Price:

We have — not seen any reason to adjust our own nuclear posture, nor do we have indications that Russia is preparing to use nuclear weapons. But we have heard these very concerning statements, and we wanted to send a very clear signal.

There would be consequences for Russia, whether it uses a dirty bomb or a nuclear bomb. We have been very clear about that.

Nick Schifrin:

Ukraine responded by inviting U.N. experts into the country's nuclear facilities.

Foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba tweeted: "Unlike Russia, Ukraine has always been and remains transparent. We have nothing to hide."

And President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called for preemptive action.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukrainian President (through translator):

If Russia calls and says that Ukraine is allegedly preparing something, it means one thing: Russia has already prepared all this.

I believe that now the world should react as harshly as possible. Even the very Russian threat of nuclear weapons is a reason for both sanctions and for even greater strengthening of support for Ukraine.

Judy Woodruff:

And Nick joins me now.

So, Nick, hello.

And how concerned are the U.S. and its allies?

Nick Schifrin:

I have talked to half-a-dozen U.S., Western NATO officials today, Judy, and all are very concerned, although some more than others.

And the reason they're concerned is, number one, what you have just heard from Zelenskyy is that Russia has a track record of accusing its adversaries of the very actions that it itself is planning. And so there's heightened concern tonight that Russia is the one planning to deploy a radiological device in Ukraine.

Number two, Moscow has created the conditions that, according to its own doctrine, could lead to a preemptive nuclear strike, threats to territory that Putin has claimed is Russia. That's Ukrainian territory that he has illegally annexed and now claims of a weapons of mass destruction threat, again, to that — quote, unquote — "Russian territory."

Russian strategy is what the U.S. calls escalate to de-escalate. And so this would be an example, U.S. officials fear, of Russia escalating with a radiological device, in order to try and convince Kyiv to come to the negotiating table. They're also worried, according to one senior administration official I spoke to today, is that a dirty bomb is — quote — "easily concealable," could be very small, and that — quote — "We should be humble about whether we will be able to know that this dirty bomb is coming."

But a couple of notes of caution, Judy, that are really important. One, it is not clear that Russia actually has a radiological device on the shelf ready to use. And, number two, every U.S. official has been very clear today there is no physical evidence at all that Russia has decided or taken the steps to employ this dirty bomb.

Judy Woodruff:

So, given all that, what is it thought that Russia means exactly when it talks about the possibility of a dirty bomb exploding in Ukraine?

Nick Schifrin:

Yes, really important question.

A dirty bomb is relatively simple. It's just the use of conventional explosives to spread radiation. Generally, the West has associated that kind of threat with terrorist groups who have threatened to use a dirty bomb in the past, and they have certainly tried to obtain or create a dirty bomb when it comes to al-Qaida.

These are relatively rudimentary and, depending on the size, depending on the design, affect really a relatively small geographic area, even just a few hundred feet across. That's according to Pavel Podvig, a senior researcher at the U.N. Institute for Disarmament Research, who talked to us earlier today.

Pavel Podvig, U.N. Institute for Disarmament Research: Bomb is really not a very efficient or not efficient at all for dispersing radioactive materials, which is the point of a dirty bomb.

The idea is to create some atmosphere of fear and uncertainty. And to, some extent, it actually — it has been successful, because people worry.

Nick Schifrin:

And because we are talking about that fear and uncertainty tonight.

It's hard to know, according to Western officials, why Sergei Shoigu, the defense minister of Russia, made this threat in these calls to NATO defense ministers, calls that we have not seen since the beginning of the war, possibly to deflect blame if Russia does decide to use a dirty bomb, possibly to coerce or pressure the West to push Kyiv toward the negotiating table, possibly to test NATO unity, which so far has held, possibly, of course, all of the above.

Judy Woodruff:

Yes, so striking, the phone calls from Russia's defense minister.

Nick, what is it believed that the potential consequences would be if Russia — if there were a dirty bomb and Russia was behind this, if this happened?

Nick Schifrin:

U.S. officials are not going to lay out exactly how they would respond. Nuclear deterrence requires a little bit of ambiguity.

They only repeat the threats that they have made in the past, that a Russian nuclear strike will lead to — quote — "catastrophic consequences." Other officials tell me, look, it depends. How many people would die? Crucial question, does radiation spread into NATO? Does it spread across Ukraine's borders? And could someone talk about Article 5?

But a senior NATO official tonight told me that the response would probably not be as significant as it would be if Russia launched an actual nuclear weapon, and the response would probably mirror the kind of response that the U.S. would give following a chemical or biological strike, which can vary, again, depending on how big this attack could be.

Judy Woodruff:

Well, certainly sobering, in any event.

Nick Schifrin:

Absolutely.

Judy Woodruff:

Nick Schifrin, thank you.

Nick Schifrin:

Thanks very much.