What is the significance of Russia attacking Ukraine with Iranian drones?

Geoff Bennett:

As Russia loses soldiers territory and momentum in the face of Ukraine's latest counter offensive, it's turning to other nefarious actors for support, chief among them, Iran. The White House says it's concerned about the increased flow of weapons including the possibility of surface-to-surface precision missiles. And the Pentagon this week confirmed an increase in military aid and training from Tehran.

We take a closer look now at this new partnership in the war.

The relative calm of Kyiv rocked by loud blasts earlier this week, crumbling buildings to their foundations. But these were not the now familiar rocket fire or artillery strikes. They were a barrage of deadly drones, dozens across several cities and the largest assault of its kind on civilian targets since the war started. Ukrainian investigators combing through debris found a fragment of an Iranian made drone with for Belgorod written on it, a reference to a Russian region hit repeatedly by Ukrainian shelling. It's the latest evidence of an evolving partnership between Russia and Iran. Iranian leaders deny supplying any weapons to Russia. That's at odds with the U.S. assessment.

Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, Pentagon Press Secretary:

We know that these drones are from Iran, as evidenced by the drones themselves, as evidenced by the fact that they continue to export terror, as I mentioned, not only in the Middle East region, but in Ukraine. It's good. It's obvious that they're lying.

Geoff Bennett:

Despite some support from Belarus and China, two of Russian President Vladimir Putin is closest allies, they remain at arm's length. And with new sanctions from the European Union against Iran this week for providing the drones, Tehran now stands alone and its level of support to Moscow.

Mason Clark joins us now. He's the lead Russian Military Analyst at the Institute for the Study of War. Thanks so much for being with us.

Mason Clark, Institute for the Study of War: Thanks for having me.

Geoff Bennett:

And these so-called Kamikaze drones, how exactly do they work? And why have they become an increasingly urgent problem for Ukraine?

Mason Clark:

Right, so Iran is providing Russia what is known as the Shahed-136. They're often as you said, known as kamikaze drones, and more technically are known as a loitering munition. They're a very small propeller driven aircraft really powered by something the size of a lawnmower engine and about as loud that can orbit over a given target area, say downtown Kyiv for hours at a time of waiting to target a specific building or location. They then dive down towards the ground and detonate on impact causing a good amount of damage. So, they are quite small warheads, all things considered.

And in principle, these munitions are very effective at picking out and targeting very specific items. On the battlefield, they would be used to target Ukrainian command centers, artillery positions and that sort of thing. But instead, the Russians are using them in these terror attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets, power stations, and in some cases, simply residential areas and apartment buildings.

Geoff Bennett:

What does this weapon sharing relationship between Russia and Iran suggest about the overall state of the war in Ukraine right now?

Mason Clark:

Iran and Russia have had close ties militarily for quite some time. Most notably developed through their involvement in the Syrian Civil War, as they both promote the interests of the Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. They've had ties before that as well. And as Russia has gotten more isolated on the international stage and run out of its own munitions, it's had to look to partners such as Iran to replace those losses, most notably now the Russians are getting supplies from Iran as well as North Korea, and they sought various support from China earlier in the war that they haven't really gotten.

In terms of these actual drones, the Russians are using them to replace their own advanced precision missiles known as the Iskandar and Caliber, most notably. Early in the war, this was the main way the Russian struck Ukrainian rear areas, civilian targets, and that sort of thing. But the war is going on much longer than the Russian military anticipated. And as they're running out of their own missiles, they're now having to supplement those with these Iranian provided drones.

Geoff Bennett:

Well, a question about that, because could the increased flow of weapons from Tehran offset the huge losses in Russian military equipment since Moscow started this invasion?

Mason Clark:

It certainly could help backfill some of those capabilities and is enabling the Russians to continue this strike pattern against Kyiv and other main Ukrainian cities. However, it isn't a one-to-one replacement. These drones aren't as effective as the Iskandar and Caliber missiles. And most notably, they're hard to integrate into Russian operations, as of course, has been widely reported. There are Iranian trainers on the ground in Crimea, helping operate these drones. And that has to be done externally. They can't be directly operated by the Russian personnel the same way that the Russians could use their own munitions. So, the targeting isn't as precise. And it requires these additional footprints from Iran and able to even carry out these attacks.

Geoff Bennett:

A big picture question as we wrap up our conversation here, because, as you mentioned earlier, it's not just Iran, U.S. pressure is really driving Russia, Iran and China closer together. What do you see as the significance, what do you see as the implications of that trilateral relationship?

Mason Clark:

Certainly, it's different for all three actors, which is very important. Of course, Russia seeks to win its war of conquest in Ukraine, and is seeking any means it can do so. The Iranians see this as a way to reshape their relationship with the Russians for a long time, they've been more of a subordinate partner in terms of military aid. And now they're having to be taken much more seriously by the Kremlin. They're getting things in return, such as spy satellite launches earlier this year, likely more favorable trade deals and things like that. And Tehran is almost certainly taken advantage of this to reshape its relationship with the Kremlin.

Now, on the Chinese side, China, for lack of a better term doesn't want to back a losing horse and is watching how the Russian operations are not going how Putin planned at the beginning of the invasion. And we assess is not wanting to overtly back the Russians and suffer the consequences of that. Even while in principle, China supports the Kremlin's efforts to push back on the U.S. and NATO and attack Ukraine.

Geoff Bennett:

Mason Clark with the Institute for the Study of War, thanks so much for your insights, I appreciate it.

Mason Clark:

Thanks for having me.