>> COMING UP IN THE NEXT HOUR OF LOCAL NEWS ON ARIZONA PBS, ON ARIZONA HORIZON: HAVE WE SEEN THE WORST OF THE COVID-PANDEMIC?

WE'LL GET AN UPDATE.

AND ON CRONKITE NEWS: POLITICAL PARTIES CENSURING THEIR OWN MEMBERS USED TO BE RARE, BUT NOT ANYMORE.

THAT'S ALL AHEAD IN THE NEXT HOUR ON ARIZONA PBS.

THIS IS MADE POSSIBLE BY THE FRIENDS OF PBS.

THANK YOU.

>> GOOD EVENING AND WELCOME TO ARIZONA HORIZON.

I'M TED SIMONS.

U.S. SUPREME COURT JUSTICE STEPHEN BREYER FORMALLY ANNOUNCED HIS RETIREMENT TODAY.

THE ANNOUNCEMENT WAS MADE BY PRESIDENT BIDEN THIS MORNING AT THE WHITE HOUSE.

JUSTICE BREYER WILL BE STEPPING DOWN THIS SUMMER AT THE END OF THE COURT'S CURRENT SESSION AFTER SERVING FOR NEARLY 3-DECADES.

JUSTICE BREYER SPOKE TODAY NOT ABOUT THOSE PAST YEARS ON THE COURT, BUT WHAT LIES AHEAD FOR THE COUNTRY AND WHAT HE EMPHASIZES WHEN HE SPEAKS TO STUDENTS.

>> OF COURSE PEOPLE DON'T AGREE, BUT WE HAVE A COUNTRY THAT ITS BASED ON HUMAN RIGHTS, DEMOCRACY, AND SO FORT, BUT I'LL TELL YOU WHAT LINCOLN THOUGHT, WHAT WASHINGTON THOUGHT AND WHAT PEOPLE TODAY STILL THINK, IT'S AN EXPERIMENT.

IT'S AN EXPERIMENT.

THAT'S WHAT THEY SAID.

IT'S A KIND OF MIRACLE WHEN YOU SIT THERE AND SEE ALL THOSE PEOPLE IN FRONT OF YOU, PEOPLE THAT ARE SO DIFFERENT IN WHAT THEY THINK, AND YET THEY'VE DECIDED TO HELP SOLVE THEIR MAJOR DIFFERENCES UNDER LAW.

AND WHEN THE STUDENTS GET TOO CYNICAL, I SAY GO LOOK AT WHAT HAPPENS IN COUNTRIES THAT DON'T DO THAT.

THE NEXT GENERATION, THE ONE AFTER THAT, MY GRANDCHILDREN AND THEIR CHILDREN, THEY'LL DETERMINE WHETHER THE EXPERIMENT STILL WORKS AND OF COURSE I'M AN OPTIMIST AND I'M PRETTY SURE IT WILL.

>> AT TODAY'S ANNOUNCEMENT PRESIDENT BIDEN SAID THAT HE PLANS TO NAME BREYER'S SUCCESSOR BY THE END OF FEBRUARY AND THAT HE INTENDS TO MAKE GOOD ON A CAMPAIGN PLEDGE.

>> THE PERSON I WILL NOMINATE WILL BE SOMEONE OF EXTRAORDINARY QUALIFICATIONS, CHARACTER, EXPERIENCE AND INTEGRITY AND THAT PERSON WILL BE THE FIRST BLACK WOMAN EVER NOMINATED TO THE UNITED STATES SUPREME COURT.

>> THIS IS NOT THE FIRST TIME THAT A PRESIDENT HAS PROMISED TO SELECT A SUPREME COURT NOMINEE FROM A SPECIFIC DEMOGRAPHIC GROUP.

RONALD REAGAN VOWED TO PUT THE FIRST "WOMAN" ON THE COURT WHEN CAMPAIGNING FOR PRESIDENT.

AND HE DID JUST THAT, SELECTING ARIZONA JUDGE SANDRA DAY O'CONNOR.

OTHER NEWS: THE U.S. ECONOMY LAST YEAR GREW AT ITS FASTEST RATE SINCE THE 1980S.

THE BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS SHOWS G-D-P GROWTH OF NEARLY 6-PERCENT IN 2021.

THAT'S THE FASTEST PACE SINCE 1984.

THE REPORT SHOWS A 1.7-PERCENT INCREASE IN THE 4TH-QUARTER, WHICH EQUATES TO A NEARLY 7-PERCENT INCREASE ON AN ANNUALIZED BASIS.

AND ARIZONA'S NUMBER OF NEW COVID CASES DROPPED AGAIN .

MORE THAN 14,000 CASES REPORTED TODAY.

THAT CONTINUES A DOWNWARD TREND, BUT IT'S STILL SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN JUST A MONTH AGO.

THE STATE REPORTED 33-NEW COVID-RELATED FATALITIES.

AS FOR HOSPITALIZATIONS: MORE THAN 3500, THAT'S SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS.

BUT THE NUMBER OF AVAILABLE ICU BEDS IS DROPPING AGAIN.

IT'S NOW AT JUST 84-STATEWIDE.

ARE WE SEE SEEING AN END TO THE LATEST SPIKE OF COVID-19?

AND WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT A NEW OMICRON VARIANT THAT'S JUST NOW HITTING ARIZONA.

WE ASKED FORMER STATE HEALTH DIRECTOR WILL HUMBLE, NOW THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THE ARIZONA PUBLIC HEALTH ASSOCIATION.

GOOD TO HAVE YOU ON ARIZONA HORIZON AGAIN.

WHERE ARE WE RIGHT NOW IN THIS PANDEMIC?

>> IF YOU LOOK AT IT AS A TWO YEAR PERIOD OF TIME, WE'RE AT THE TAIL END.

I REALLY DO BELIEVE WE'RE AT THE END OF THE EPIDEMIC PART OF THE PANDEMIC AND IT WILL BECOME ENDEMIC, IT WILL NO LONGER BE AN EMERGENCY.

THERE WILL BE BREAKTHROUGH INFECTIONS, BUT IT WILL NO LONGER POSE THE KIND OF PUBLIC HEALTH THREAT AND QUITE HONESTLY, INDIVIDUAL THREAT THAT IT POSES, THAT IT HAS POSED OVER THE LAST TWO YEARS.

>> AGAIN, FROM PANDEMIC TO ENDEMIC, THIS OMICRON, LATEST SURGE, THE NUMBERS OF OUTRAGEOUS HERE, DROPPING BUT STILL OUTRAGEOUS.

WHEN DO WE GET TOGETHER.

ARE WE ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE MOUNT JUNE THIS WEEK, IF YOU LOOK AT THE DATA, THE EPIDEMIOLOGY CURVE IS STARTING TO COME DOWN.

WE ARE ON THE DOWNSIDE FOR INFECTIONS.

WE'RE STILL ON THE UPSLOPE FOR NEW HOSPITALIZATIONS AND THAT'S GOING TO CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE OF WEEKS, GENERAL WARD FLOOR HOSPITALIZATIONS.

ANOTHER INTERESTING PART OF THIS IS THAT WHILE WE'VE SEEN THIS INCREASE IN NEW HOSPITALIZATIONS AND EMERGENCY DEPARTMENTS, WE HAVE NOT SEEN AN INCREASE IN NEW HOSPITALIZATIONS IN THE INTENSIVE CURE UNIT.

NUMBER ONE, MANY OF THESE INTENTIONS BREAKTHROUGH INFECTIONS, WHICH WE'LL GET INTO THIS, HAVE LESS SERIOUS CONSEQUENCES FOR INDIVIDUAL PEOPLE, BUT ALSO, THAT'S REALLY THE PRIMARY THING.

>> BUT OMNICRON, IF OMICRON ITSELF, I THOUGHT IT WAS INTERESTING, SOMEONE MENTIONED, OMICRON IS MILDER, IT'S NOT MILD, THOUGH.

>> I SAY IT'S LESS LETHAL.

THAT'S THE WAY TO FRAME IT.

>> YES.

>> THE REASON IS BECAUSE THIS VERSION OF THE VIRUS REPLICATES UP HERE WHEREAS DELTA ALPHA AND THE ANCESTRAL STRAIN WERE IN THE LUNGS.

THERE'S TWO THINGS ABOUT IT.

IF IT'S REPLICATING UP HERE, IT'S LESS LIKELY TO CAUSE PNEUMONIA WHICH WAS ONE OF THE BIG REASONS PEOPLE DIED WITH PREVIOUS VERSIONS, BUT ALSO BECAUSE IT'S UP HERE, IT'S EASY TORE TRANSMIT.

A LOT OF THE VIRUS IS UP HERE RATHER THAN DOWN HERE SO THAT'S PART OF WHY IT'S SO MUCH MORE CONTAGIOUS THAN PREVIOUS VERSIONS.

>> WHAT ABOUT THIS BA2 VARIANT?

>> IT'S IN ARIZONA.

IT'S CIRCULATING IN ARIZONA SIDE BY SIDE.

IT'S STILL THE FIRST VERSION OF OMICRON IS WHAT'S DOMINANT.

THIS IS A MUTATION FROM THAT ORIGINAL OMICRON.

IT'S GOT 20 MUTE IS AS ON IT.

DOESN'T LOOK TO BE A HUGE ISSUE.

IT'S DOMINANT IN DENMARK, THAT'S THE ONLY PLACE IN THE WORLD IT'S DOMINANT.

IT APPEARS AS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE OTHER OMICRON AND THERE'S NO WARNING SIGNALS THAT IT'S ESCAPING ANTIBODY IMMUNITY ANYMORE THAN OMICRON DID AND T CELL IMMUNITY IS ROCK SOLID.

>> LET'S TALK ABOUT T CELL IMMUNITY.

WHAT IS THAT AND WHY IS THAT IMPORTANT GOING FORWARD AND WHY IS IT SOMEWHAT ENCOURAGING GOING FORWARD?

>> RIGHT, ANTIBODIES GET ALL OF THE PRESS, ALL THE ATTENTION IS ON THE ANTIBODIES BUT THE GRUNT WORK IS DONE BY YOUR T CELLS.

THE ANTIBODIES ARE YOUR RAPID RESPONSE TEAM.

THEY'RE OUT THERE WHEN YOU WERE EXPOSED TO THE VIRUS, THEY JUMP ON THAT VIRUS RIGHT AWAY, BUT T CELLS ARE THE MAIN PART OF YOUR IMMUNE SYSTEM THAT REALLY FIGHTS THOSE VIRUSES, YOU KNOW, JUST ON THE BATTLEFIELD.

THE T CELL IMMUNITY FOR ALL OF THESE VARIANTS GOING BACK TO THE ANCESTRAL TRAIN 2020 HAS REMAINED STEADFAST.

WHILE WE HAVE SEEN A DRIFT TOWARDS THE ANTIBODIES NOT BEING AS EFFECTIVE, DEVELOPED BY THE VACCINES, THE T CELL IMMUNITY DEVELOPED BIT VACCINES AND PREVIOUS INFECTIONS HAS REALLY REMAINED STEADFAST AND THAT GETS TO THE LAST PART OF YOUR QUESTION, WHY THAT IS IMPORTANT.

WHAT THAT MEANS IS THAT AS THIS OMICRON EBBS IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS, EVERY CASE MOVING FORWARD IS GOING TO BE A BREAKTHROUGH CASE, WHETHER PREVIOUSLY VACCINATED, PREVIOUSLY INFECTED WITH ONE OF THE OTHER VERSIONS, EVERYTHING IS GOING TO BE A BREAK THROUGH CASE AND THOSE ARE NOT AS SEVERE BECAUSE YOUR T CELLS REMEMBER AND THEY'RE ABLE TO ATTACK THAT VIRUS EVEN IF IT GETS BIT ANTIBODIES.

THAT'S WHY IT'S SO IMPORTANT TO WATCH T CELL IMMUNITY WITH THESE VARIANTS, BECAUSE THAT TELLS YOU WHAT THE FUTURE'S GOING TO BE AND RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS PROMISING.

>> HOW LONG DO THEY REMEMBER?

>> FOREVER.

>> OH REALLY?

>> YEAH.

>> SO WE COULD HIT A POINT WHERE THE BOOSTER SHOT DOESN'T MAKE MUCH SENSE ANYMORE.

>> THEY STILL REMEMBER, BUT THE FIGHTERS MIGHT BE LOWER, BUT THEY CAN DEVELOP MORE QUICKLY.

BOOSTERS SAY IMMUNE SYSTEM, RAMP IT UP ON THOSE ANTIBODIES AND T CELLS AGAIN SO YOU'RE READY FOR THE EXPOSURE.

>> IF YOU'RE NOT READY AND GET EXPOSED, AGAIN, YOU'RE MENTIONING THE FACT THAT IT WON'T BE AS SEVERE BECAUSE THE T CELLS ARE THERE.

>> BECAUSE THE IMMUNITY IS THERE.

ALL THE HOLD OUTS, PEOPLE WHO WOULDN'T GET VACCINATED, THEY'RE GETTING INFECTED LAST WEEK, THIS WEEK, NEXT WEEK.

SOME KNOW THEY'VE BEEN INFECTED, SOME ARE IN THE HOSPITAL BUT EVENTUALLY, VIRUS IS GOING TO RUN OUT OF NEW PEOPLE TO IN EFFECT ON THE INITIAL INFECTION AND THEN IT WILL STILL BE AROUND, BUT THERE WILL ALWAYS BE BREAKTHROUGH CASES MOVING FORWARD.

>> WILL THAT MEAN THAT NO MORE VACCINES, PFIZER IS DEVELOPING AN ALL ENCOMPASSING YEARLY VACCINE, ALL WE'VE SEEN SO FAR AND IF YOU TELL PEOPLE TO GET A VACCINE ONCE A YEAR, IT'S EASIER TO DO THIS.

>> RIGHT.

I EXPECT IT TO BE A FALL VACCINE SO WHEN YOU GO IN AND GET YOUR VACCINE FOR INFLUENZA, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER OFFERED THERE.

THAT'S WHEN PEOPLE USUALLY GET THE PNEUMONIA SHOTS, THAT FALL VISIT.

I EXPECT THAT TO HAPPEN.

THOSE BOOSTERS WILL STILL HAVE VALUE, EVEN AFTER THIS IS ENDEMIC, BECAUSE WHY?

BECAUSE IT'S THAT TRIG TORE YOU'RE IMMUNE SYSTEMS TO HEY, DON'T FALL ASLEEP, WE WANT YOU HERE FOR THIS NEXT EXPOSURE.

>> THE PSYCHOLOGICAL IMPACT OF ALL THIS, WE TALK ABOUT ANTIGENS AND T CELLS AND ALL THIS KIND OF BUSINESS, BUT THERE'S A PSYCHOLOGICAL COMPONENT.

COVID FATIGUE IS OBVIOUS, EVERYONE HAS IT.

PEOPLE LOSING WORK, PEOPLE CHANGING LIFESTYLES, PEOPLE WEARING MASKS, PEOPLE ARGUING WITH RELATIVES, LOSING CONTACTS WITH FRIENDS.

THERE'S A PSYCHOLOGICAL IMPACT.

DO WE EVEN KNOW WHAT WORE FACING WITH IN THIS.

>> I'M NOT AN EXPERT IN THAT PARTLY OF IT, BUT IN MY PRIVATE AND PROFESSIONAL LIFE, I'VE OBSERVED WHAT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT.

IT HAPPENS IN FAMILIES, IN FRIEND GROUPS, IT HAPPENS JUST STRANGERS IN THE STREET, THIS PANDEMIC HAS BECOME SO POLITICAL IN A WAY THAT I'VE NEVER SEEN IN MY ENTIRE LIFE AND OF COURSE IT'S GOING TO HAVE CONSEQUENCES ACROSS THE BOARD.

YOU'LL NEED ANOTHER GUEST TO EXPLAIN THAT.

>> I DID READ SOMETHING ON TWITTER WHERE A CERTAIN PERSON SAID QUOTE AND THIS IS MY LAST QUESTION.

GOVERNOR DUCEY AND FORMER HEALTH DIRECTOR MISUSED THEIR AUTHORITY TO HARM THE RESPONSE.

>> THAT WAS ME.

>> THAT WAS YOU.

>> MOST OF 2020, THERE WASN'T THE CASE.

THEY MISUSED THAT AUTHORITY IN 2020.

WHEN 2021 CAME AROUND, THAT'S WHEN THEY STARTED TO MISUSE THE AUTHORITY PREVENTING LOCAL JURISDICTIONS FROM PUTTING IN MASK ORDINANCE, PREVENTING UNIVERSITIES FROM HAVING A MITIGATION PLAN IN PLACE.

BY PREVENTING K-12 SCHOOLS FROM DOING THE THINGS THEY WANTED TO DO.

THAT'S MISUSING PUBLIC HEALTH AUTHORITY TO HARM THE RESPONSE, WHICH IS DIFFERENT FROM MISSING OPPORTUNITIES TO USE THAT AUTHORITY FOR A GOOD PURPOSE.

THAT'S WHAT THEY DID IN 2020.

2021 IS WHERE THEY MISUSED THAT AUTHORITY AND THERE'S A BIG DEBATE AT THE LEGISLATURE RIGHT NOW, SENATOR REIDA HAS A BILL TO JUST LOOK AT THAT ISSUE, LIKE WHAT DO WE NEED TO DO TO CHANGE THE STATUTE TO THE NEXT GOVERNOR DOESN'T ABUSE THE AUTHORITY.

HER VIEW.

>> VERY DIFFERENT FROM YOURS.

>> VERY DIFFERENT FROM MINE BUT ON BOTH SIDES, PEOPLE SAYING WAIT A MINUTE, WE'VE GOT TO LOOK AT THIS TO PREVENT IT HAPPENING ANYONE PUBLIC POLICY WISE.

>> THANK YOU, SIR.

>> TAKE CARE.

>> UP NEXT ON ARIZONA HORIZON, USING COMPUTER MODELING TO RESEARCH SOCIO POLITICAL DIVISIVENESS.

>> RESEARCHERS ARE USING COMPUTER MODELING TO HELP UNDERSTAND WHY THERE'S AN ACCELERATING TREND TOWARD SOCIAL AND POLITICAL DIVISIVENESS.

FOR MORE, WE SPOKE TO ASU COMPUTER SCIENTIST JOSHUA DAYMUDE, WHO TOOK PART IN THE RESEARCH.

>> AS WE LOOK AT COMPUTER MODELING, WHY WAS THIS RESEARCH STARTED, WHAT WERE YOU LOOKING FOR?

>> WELL, THE POLARIZATION IS TO BIG ISSUE IN OUR WORLD, DEFINITELY OUR COUNTRY.

WE WERE TRYING TO FIGURE OUT AS COMPUTER SCIENTIST WHAT COULD WE DO TO TRY TO IDENTIFY HOW WE COULD STOP IT, SLOW IT DOWN.

THAT'S WHERE THIS RESEARCH CAME FROM.

>> READING ABOUT THIS, IT SOUNDS LIKE YOU HAD MODELS BUT THEY HAD TO HAVE CERTAIN RULES, PEOPLE INTERACT WITH OTHERS WHO ARE SIMILAR AND INTERACTION BRING THEM CLOSER TOGETHER, STUFF LIKE THAT, CORRECT?

>> THAT'S RIGHT.

WHEN WE BUILD A MODEL, IT'S OUR RULES OF THE GAME.

THE RULES SAY IF PEOPLE ARE SIMILAR THEY'RE MORE LIKELY TO INTERACT.

RULE TWO, IF YOU INTERACT WITH SOMEBODY WHO BELIEVES THE SAME THING OR SIMILAR TO YOU, YOU'LL GET CLOSER.

SOMEONE THAT SOMETHING YOU DON'T AGREE WITH, IT MAKES YOU FARTHER APART.

THAT'S WHERE WE GET THE GAME, ATTRACTION REPULSIVE MODEL.

>> SOUNDS LIKE THERE WAS A HIGH LEVEL OF TOLERANCE IN SOME RESPECTS.

>> THAT'S RIGHT.

THE FIRST THING WE DISCOVERED WHICH ALIGNS WITH OUR DEMOCRATIC SENSIBILITIES, IF YOU HAVE A POPULATION THAT IS TALL RANT, THEY'RE WILLING TO ATTRACT TO A LOT OF THINGS, POLARIZATION DOESN'T REALLY HAPPEN.

WHEN YOU GET THAT STUBBORN INTOLERANCE, LOTS OF REPULSIVE INTERACTIONS, THAT'S WHERE YOU SEE POLARIZATION TAKE HOLD.

>> AS FAR AS EXTREMISM IS CONCERNED, NOT ALL MADE POLARIZATION WORSE?

>> THAT'S RIGHT.

WHEN YOU HAVE SMALL EXTREME GROUPS TRYING TO WEIGH OUT ON THE ENDS AND MODERATE MAJORITY, THAT SIDE MIGHT SAY WE DON'T WANT TO BE LIKE THAT, THAT'S REPULSIVE TO US, WE DON'T WANT TO BE EXTREMISTS AND THAT REINFORCES THE MODERATES.

WHEN THE EXTREME ITS ARE OUT THERE SMALL IN SIZE, THAT CAN REINFORCE A MODERATE MAJORITY.

>> IF THERE ARE NO EXTREMISTS, DOES THAT PUSH MODERATES OUT TO THE EXTREMES.

>> THERE ARE SOME SITUATION THAT IS CAN.

BUT THE BIG DEEM IS WHEN THOSE EXTREME GROUPS GET VERY LARGE AND INTERACT WITH THE MODERATES.

THAT'S WHERE THE PUSHING COMES FROM AND YOU SEE SPLINTERING OF THE MAJORITY IN THE MIDDLE.

>> CAN YOU LOOK AT THE PAST AND SEE WHERE IT MIGHT APPLY AND HOW IT MAY HAVE BEEN LOOKED IN PREVIOUS YEARS?

>> ABSOLUTELY.

I'LL GIVE YOU AN EXAMPLE OF ANOTHER RESULT THAT WE FOUND.

SO ONE OF THOSE RESULTS WAS THAT OFTEN PEOPLE TALK ABOUT TRYING TO INCREASE TOLERANCE BY BEING EXPOSED TO THINGS FOR DIFFERENT.

WE CAN LEARN FROM ONE ANOTHER AND HELP OUR TOLERANCE.

OUR RESEARCH SAYS THAT IS NOT ALWAYS THE CASE.

IN THE 1960'S, ESPECIALLY IN PLACES LIKE BOSTON, WHERE BUSING WAS SEEN AS A WAY OF ADDRESSING RESISTANCE TO SEGREGATION, DESEGREGATION, THAT IS, A LOT OF PEOPLE SAW BUSING AS KIND OF AN OFFENSE, AND THEY REACTED EVEN MORE EXTREMELY TO DESEGREGATION THAN THEY WOULD HAVE ORIGINALLY.

THERE ARE EXAMPLES WHERE WE'VE TRIED TO DO THE RIGHT THING BY EXPOSING TO DIFFERENCES BUT THEIR IN TOLERANCE MAKES IT WORSE.

>> WHAT LESSON CAN YOU TAKE?

WE CAN'T HAVE INCH IN THEIR SOIL LES.

>> WE LEARNED THAT EXPOSURE BY ITSELF IS NOT THE ANSWER.

WE NEED EXPOSURE, LESS METHODS THAT DO INCREASE TO PEOPLE'S TOLERANCE, EMPATHY AND COMPASSION.

SOMETHING LIKE GETTING ON TWITTER AND JUST READING THE OTHER SIDE IS NOT GOING TO HELP YOU.

THAT'S NOT ACTUALLY ENGAGING THAT HUMAN SIDE OF THINGS THAT WILL CHANGE TOLERANCE.

THAT'S JUST EXPOSURE.

>> THAT'S JUST EXPOSURE.

THIS RESEARCH WAS DONE, YOU'RE A COMPUTER SCIENTIST, STEPHANIE IS IN BIO DESIGN.

THIS SOUNDS LIKE A LOT OF BIO STUFF GOING ON WITH SOCIO POLITICAL ISSUES.

>> THAT'S RIGHT.

>> WAS THAT THE PLAN?

>> ABSOLUTELY.

THIS IS PART OF A BIGGER COLLABORATION BETWEEN ASU AND PRINCETON AND OTHER UNIVERSITIES AND ACTUALLY STARTED BY AN EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGIST, AND AN ECOLOGIST.

THEY FELT LIKE IN THE SAME WAY NATURE NEEDS DIVERSITY TO BE ROBUST AND CREATE HEALTHY ECOSYSTEMS, DEMOCRACY NEEDS DIVERSITY AND HEALTHY EXCHANGE OF IDEAS.

THERE IS A PARALLEL OF BIODIVERSITY AND POLARIZATION.

THOSE THREE MET IN THE MIDDLE.

>> WHAT DO WE TAKE FROM THIS RESEARCH?

>> WHAT WE TAKE THAT IS A, DO WHAT WE CAN INDIVIDUALLY TO INCREASE OUR OWN TOLERANCE AND BE OPEN TO OTHER FIELDS OF VIEW, HAVING EMPATHY FOR OTHERS.

NUMBER TWO, WHEN WE AS INSTITUTIONS GO OUT AND TRY TO BRIDGE GAPS, WE NEED TO DO THAT IN A WAY THAT IS NOT JUST EXPOSURE.

NUMBER THREE, ELITE, THE MEDIA LEGISLATURES, ET CETERA CAN INCENTIVIZE PEOPLE AWAY FROM EXTREMISM INSTEAD OF TRYING TO GAIN FROM IT AND STOKE THAT FIVE.

WHEN THEY TRY TO DRAW PEOPLE BACK, OUR MODELS SHOW IT CAN BE EFFECTIVE.

>> ALWAYS SEEMS TO WORK IN SOME WAY SHAPE OR FORM.

VERY INTERESTING STUFF.

GOOD TO HAVE YOU HERE, THANKS FOR JOINING US.

>> THANKS, TED.

>> TONIGHT ON THE NEWS HOUR, JUSTICE BREYER OFFICIALLY ANNOUNCES HIS RETIREMENT.

WHAT HIS RETIREMENT MEANS FOR THE FUTURE OF THE SUPREME COURT.

COMING UP ON YOUR LOCAL PBS.

>> ARIZONA'S HOUSING SHORTAGE IS MAKING FOR HIGHER PRICES FOR MULTI-FAMILY HOMES AND HIGHER RENTS FOR NEW APARTMENTS.

THE SITUATION CAN BE BLAMED ON EVERYTHING FROM LUMBER AND LABOR SHORTAGES TO NEIGHBORHOOD RESISTANCE TO NEW APARTMENT CONSTRUCTION.

WE TALKED ABOUT IT WITH CATHERINE REAGOR, SENIOR REAL ESTATE REPORTER AT THE ARIZONA REPUBLIC.

GOOD TO SEE YOU AGAIN.

>> GOOD TO SEE YOU, TED, GREAT TO BE IN PERSON.

>> IT SURE IS.

IT'S ALWAYS A PLEASURE TO HAVE YOU ON WHEN WE TALK ABOUT THE REAL ESTATE MARKET.

LIKE WE HAVE NEVER SEEN?

>> YOU START WITH OUR APARTMENTS, LOWER THAN IN 50 YEARS AND NUMBER OF HOMES LISTED FOR SALE ARE HISTORICALLY LOW.

IT IS SO DIFFICULT TO BUILD AMOUNTS RIGHT NOW BECAUSE WE HAVE THIS BACKLASH THAT ARIZONA HASN'T SEEN BEFORE.

>> LET'S TALK ABOUT THAT.

I WANTED TO TALK ABOUT LUMBER PRICES, THAT CAN IMPACT THE NEW HOME MARKET AND NEW AMOUNTS.

>> IT'S TWOFOLD, WHAT WE'RE FACING HERE.

CONSTRUCTION COSTS ARE WAY UP, LUMBER COSTS, STEEL COSTS ARE WAY UP, AND LABOR COSTS AND EVEN FINDING LABOR IS SO DIFFICULT.

LAND COSTS ARE UP.

THE MEDIAN PRICE OF A NEW HOME IS UP 30%, $100,000 FROM LAST YEAR BUT THE NUMBER OF NEW HOMES WE'RE BUILDING IS DOWN FROM THE YEAR BEFORE AND WE NEED MORE, BUT BUILDERS, THE LABOR AND THE LAND AND IT'S AN ISSUE.

>> IT'S DISRUPTING THE HOUSING MARKET TO THE SENSE THAT ARE HOME PRICES RIGHT NOW, EVERYONE RUNS ON ZILLOW TO TRY TO FIND OUT WHAT THEIR HOME IS WORK.

IS THAT FANTASY LAND RIGHT NOW?

>> THERE'S INVESTORS COMING IN, TALK THEY COULD BE BUYING MULTIPLE ENABLED, OPEN DOOR AND OFFER PADS, THEY'RE TURNING THOSE INTO RENTALS, BUT I MEAN, THE PRICES, THEY'RE PAYING AND PAYING CASH.

WE SAT THEY'RE 10 YEARS AGO AND TALKED ABOUT THE INVESTORS AND THE CRASH AND ALL THE PEOPLE WHO BALKED AWAY BUT THE INVESTORS PAYING CASH CAME IN.

WHY WOULD THEY WALK AWAY AND OUR RENTAL PRICES SO, WE'RE SECOND IN THE NATION FOR INCREASING RENTAL PRICES FOR BOTH SINGLE PARTY AND AMOUNTS.

THEY'RE GETTING A GREAT RETURN.

>> HOW CAN THE RENTAL PRICES BE SO HIGH WHEN EVERYWHERE YOU LOOK, THERE'S A HIGH RISE APARTMENT BEING BUILT.

>> THERE ARE A LOT BEING BUILT.

THE ISSUE IN THOSE, RENTAL ARE HIGHER, BUT THEN THERE ARE, I JUST TALKED TO SOMEONE FROM A GROUP WITHIN ARIZONA HOME.

THEY ARE TRYING TO TALK TO POLITICIANS BECAUSE OF THIS.

I GOT AN ESTIMATE THAT 30 TO 50 APARTMENT COMPLEXES GOT TIME IMMEDIATE OR SHELVED BECAUSE OF POLITICAL BACKLASH YOU.

>> MENTIONED NIMBIISM, THEY DON'T WANT THIS, NOT IN MY BACK YARD.

I HADN'T HEARD OF THAT IN ARIZONA UNTIL NOW.

>> YES, DURING THE PANDEMIC WHEN THIS SURGE IN OUR POPULATION COMING BACK, PEOPLE MOVING HERE.

PEOPLE WORKING REMOTELY, WE'LL SEE HOW THEY COME OUT IN THE NUMBERS.

PROJECTS IN BUCKEYE, GILBERT, PHOENIX, DIFFERENT PARTS OF PHOENIX, BUT EVEN SOUTH PHOENIX, GETTING NIMBIISM WHERE PEOPLE SAY WE DON'T WANT RENTALS HERE AND WE NEED THOSE RENTALS.

ARIZONA DEPARTMENT OF HOUSING, TOM TALKS ABOUT THIS.

HE WAS A PHOENIX CITY COUNCILMAN.

HE SAID YOU GET THREE NEIGHBORS AGAINST YOU AND YOU'VE GOT A BIG FIGHT ON YOUR HANDS.

WE HAVE TO -- POLITICIANS NEED SOME KIND OF BACKING TO BUILD THE DEVELOPMENTS BECAUSE YOU HAVE THEN YOU HAVE A WHOLE ENABLED BEHIND YOU, BUT THE ARIZONA DEPARTMENT OF HOUSING HAS ESTIMATED WE NEED ACROSS THE STATE 270,000 MORE HOMES AND APARTMENTS TO MEET OUR HOUSING AFFORDABILITY CRISIS.

>> SO THE NIMBIISM IS WHEN NEIGHBORHOOD GROUPS, MAYBE JUST A CORNER OF A CUL-DE-SAC GET TOGETHER AND SAY THEY'RE THINKING OF BUILDING AN APARTMENT COMPLEX, LOW TO MODERATE HOUSING, WE'RE NOT GOING TO ALLOW IT, AND DO WHAT, MARCH ON THE CITY HALL?

>> YEAH, THEY GO TO CITY COUNCIL AND MARCH AGAINST THAT.

THEY HAVE SIGNS, THEY RALLY OTHER NEIGHBORS, AND AGAIN, YOU KNOW, CALIFORNIA, SEATTLE, AS YOU SAID, WE SEE THAT THERE, BUT HAVE NOT SEEN IT HERE.

FOR THIS GROUP TO FORM AND OTHER GROUPS TO ADDRESS THIS, BECAUSE IT'S A CRISIS.

ELLIOT POLLOCK SAID RECENTLY AND HE DID A SURVEY FOR THIS GROUP AND DID INCOMES BY ESSENTIAL WORKERS AND THEN DID MEDIAN RENT FOR ONE BEDROOM AND TWO BEDROOM HOUSE, RESTAURANT WORKER AND A RETAIL WORKER CANNOT AFFORD A ONE BEDROOM IN ANY OF THE BIGGEST 11 VALLEY CITIES.

>> THAT SOUNDS LIKE WHAT YOU SEE IN ASPEN.

>> IT'S CRAZY.

THERE'S A DEVELOPER DOMINION WHO CAME FROM THE MIDWEST AND THEY DO WORKFORCE HOUSING, A LITTLE FOR AFFORDABLE, ONE OF BIGGEST AND REALLY GOOD AT IT.

THEY HAD TO SCRAP A PROJECT IN BUCKEYE.

THEY'RE STILL GETTING, THEY'VE GOT ONE IN SOUTH PHOENIX DONE, BUT THE PUSH BACK, AND THEY'RE SAYING THIS IS UNBELIEVABLE.

THEY DIDN'T EXPECT THIS AT ALL.

>> WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR ARIZONA'S ECONOMY?

PEOPLE ARE COMING OUT HERE, TOUTING JOB GROWTH, THAT'S GREAT, BUT IF PLACES TO LIVE ARE SO EXPENSIVE, SOMETHING'S GOING TO COME AND BITE YOU ON THE BUTT HERE PRETTY SOON.

>> THAT'S WHAT THEY'RE SAYING, BECAUSE WE ATTRACT WORKERS BECAUSE OUR HOUSING IS RELATIVELY AFFORDABLE FOR THE WEST.

NOW IF WE HAVE THIS SHORTAGE WHERE THEY CAN NOT FIND PLACES FOR THEIR WORKERS TO LIVE, THEY'RE NOT GOING TO MOVE HERE, THEY'RE NOT GOING TO EXPAND HERE AND THEY COULD MOVE TO ALBUQUERQUE WHERE IT'S MORE AFFORDABLE.

>> ARE WE GOING TO SEE A HOUSING BUST?

>> I AM NOT SEEING SIGNS.

I ASKED EXPERTS ALL THE TIME.

IT WILL BE A WHILE BEFORE PRICES EVEN FLATTEN OUT.

WE'RE ON TRACK TO HIT 430, $430,000 FOR THE MEDIAN EXISTING HOME THIS MONTH.

THE SUPPLY IS SO LOW, THAT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE BEFORE PRICES FLATTEN, YOU WILL SEE SELLERS BEGIN, YOU'LL SEE LIST PRICES FALL, LIST PRICES ARE UP -- SELLING PRICES WERE 40% AVERAGING 40% LISTING PRICES RIGHT NOW, SO WE'RE NOT NEAR THERE AND YOU'LL SEE SELLERS START TO GET CONCESSIONS.

WELL THAT'S NOT HAPPENING.

WE'LL BE MONTHS.

WE TALK ABOUT INVESTORS PAYING CASH AND THEY ARE DRIVING UP DEMAND, BUT WHY ARE THEY GOING TO WALK AWAY FROM CASH, PARTICULARLY WHEN THEY CAN MAKE SO MUCH ON RENT.

>> THIS IS SOMETHING TO KEEP ON EYE ON.

CATHERINE, THE SENIOR REPORTER HERE, ALWAYS GOOD TO SEE YOU, THANKS SO MUCH.

>> THANKS, TED.

>> THAT IS IT FOR NOW.

I'M TED SIMONS.

THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US.

YOU HAVE A GREAT EVENING.

>> COMING UP IN THE NEXT HALF HOUR ON ARIZONA PBS: ON CRONKITE NEWS, DOCTORS AND NURSES ARE SAYING THAT THEY NEED HELP AND THEY NEED IT NOW IN HANDLING THE LATEST SPIKE IN COVID-PATIENTS.