>> COMING UP IN THE NEXT HOUR, A DEBATE ON PROPOSITION 308 LOOKING TO ALLOW IN-STATE COLLEGE TUITION FOR DREAMERS AND ON CRONKITE NEWS, BUSINESSES AND RESIDENTS FILE A LAWSUIT AGAINST THE CITY OF PHOENIX WITH THE HOMELESS POPULATION IN THEIR NEIGHBORHOOD.

THAT'S AHEAD IN THE NEXT HOUR ON ARIZONA PBS.

GOOD EVENING AND WELCOME TO ARIZONA HORIZON.

I'M TED SIMONS.

THE NBA TODAY SUSPENDED PHOENIX SUNS ROBERT SARVER FOR ONE YEAR AND HE'S BEEN FINED TEN MILLION DOLLARS AND IS IN ORDER TO COMPLETE A TRAINING PROGRAM ON RESPECT AND APPROPRIATE WORKPLACE CONDUCT.

SUSPENSION COME AFTER A TEN-MONTH INVESTIGATION BY THE NBA AND ENGAGED WHAT THEY FOUND WORKPLACE MISCONDUCT AND DEFICIENCIES AND INCLUDING FINDINGS THAT HE USED THE N WORD WITH OTHERS THAT E HE ENGAGED IN FEMALE EDGES WITH SEX RELATED EMPLOYEES BY YELLING AND CURSING AT THEM.

HE SAID HE WILL ACCEPT THIS DECISION AND WHILE HE APOLOGIZED FOR WORDS AND ACTIONS, HE DISAGREED WITH SOME OF THE REPORT'S FINDINGS.

>>> INFLATION NUMBERS WERE RELEASED AND ARE NOT GOOD.

THE PHOENIX METRO SHOWED A 13% INFLATION RATE OVER THE PAST YEAR AND THAT'S THE HIGHEST AMONG ALL MAJOR METRO AREAS IN THE U.S. AND ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE NATIONAL RATE OF 8.3%.

REAL ESTATE AND HOME RENTAL PUSHED THE LOCAL NUMBERS HIGHER AND AS FOR THE NATIONAL RATE, IT WAS THOUGHT THAT LOWER GAS PRICES WOULD EASE INFLATION AND HIGHER PRICES WERE RECORDED IN MANY OTHERS AREAS INCLUDING FOOD, MEDICAL CARE AND ELECTRICITY.

SENATE MINORITY MITCH MCCONNELL BLAMED DEMOCRATS.

>> THE INFLATION RATE WAS EXPECTED TO FALL AND INSTEAD, YET AGAIN, THE OPPOSITE HAPPENED AND OVERALL INFLATION WAS UP EVEN HIRE.

HIGHER.

DEMOCRAT'S ARE SUCKER PUNCHING EVEN TIME THEY SET FOOT IN THE CHECK-OUT LINE.

>> THE INFLATION SET WALL STREET INTO A TAIL-SPIN.

THE DOW PLUNGED OVER 1200 POINTS AS INVESTORS REACTED TO THE NUMBERS WITH RENEWED CONCERNS OVER A ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN INTEREST RATES.

>>> PROPOSITION 308 WOULD ALLOW UNDOCUMENTED STUDENTS OR DREAMERS TO RECEIVE IN-STATE COLLEGE TUITION IF THE STUDENT ATTENDED SCHOOL IN ARIZONA TOR TWO YEARS AND GRADUATED FROM A HOME SCHOOL IN THE STATE AND JOINING US NOW TO DEBATE THE MERIT 308, AND STATE SENATOR UGENTI-RITA AND GOOD TO HAVE YOU HERE AND WE'LL START WITH YOU.

AND WHY IS THIS NEEDED FOR ARIZONA.

>> THIS IS A GREAT OPPORTUNITY FOR ARIZONA AND NOT ONLY SUPPORTS DREAMERS AND PROVIDES THEM WITH GIVING A PATHWAY WITH EDUCATION TO ENSURE DREAMERS LIKE ANY OTHER KIDS HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO GET EDUCATED.

>> MICHELLE, SHOULD STUDENTS WHO LIVE HERE, HAVE LIVED HERE, SHOULD THEY NOT QUALIFY FOR IN-STATE TUITION?

>> NOT AT ALL.

WHILE I SYMPATHIZE, THROUGH NO FAULT OF THEIR OWN, WHO HAVE BEEN BROUGHT TO THIS COUNTRY, THEIR IMMIGRATION STATUS DOES NOT QUALIFY THEM FOR IN-STATE TUITION.

I THINK THIS IS PUTTING THE CART BEFORE THE HORSE.

IT'S NOT DEALING WITH THE ISSUE.

THE ISSUE IS, THEIR IMMIGRATION STATUS AND THAT NEEDS TO BE THE FOCUS.

THIS IS SOMETHING THAT ISN'T GOING TO FIX THE PROBLEM AND VOTERS SHOULD VOTE NO ON PROPOSITION 308.

>> FOR THE IDEA THAT AN EDUCATED WORKFORCE IS GOOD FOR THE BUSINESS AND THE ECONOMY IS GOOD FOR EVERYTHING AND HOW DO YOU RESPOND?

IF THESE KIDS ARE EDUCATED AND GRADUATES AND COULD GO TO COLLEGE, HOW DO YOU RIGHT RESPOND TO THE FACT THAT WITHOUT THAT IN-STATE TUITION, MOST WON'T GO?

>> I DON'T KNOW THAT TO BE TRUE AND THAT MOST WOULD NOT ATTEND COLLEGE.

THEY CAN ATTEND COLLEGE.

THEY'RE JUST NOT GETTING THE BENEFIT OF IN-STATE TUITION AND HARD TO OFFER SOMEONE HERE ILLEGALLY A BENEFIT THAT A PERSON OR A KID IN A DIFFERENT STATE WOULD NOT BE ELIGIBLE FOR.

THIS IS AN IMMIGRATION ISSUE AND WE SHOULD NOT CONFLATE THIS WITH AN ECONOMIC ISSUE OR A WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT ISSUE.

WE NEED TO CONCENTRATE ON THE PROBLEM.

THE WORST IS, THEIR IMMIGRATION STATUS.

THAT'S A FEDERAL ISSUE AND IT SHOULD BE RESOLVING THAT AND IF AND WHEN, THIS WOULD BE MOOT.

IF THEY WERE CITIZENS, THEY WOULD QUALIFY.

>> AGAIN, RENA, SHOULD A NON-U.S. CITIZEN GET THIS BENEFIT?

>> WE HAVE TO ANSWER THE FUNDAMENTAL CITIZEN, THESE ARE ARIZONA KIDS WHO GREW UP IN THE SAME SCHOOLS, WHO PLAYED THE SAME SPORTS, AND IT'S BEEN EDUCATION AND OPPORTUNITY AND AT THE END OF THE DAY, WE'RE NOT ASKING FOR A HAND-OUT BUT TO CONTINUE EDUCATIONAL GOALS AND THE ARIZONA BORDERS SHOULD ASK IF STUDENTS WON'T CONTINUE TO PURSUE, WHAT WILL WE DO?

ARE WE OK WITH THAT AND AT THE END OF THE DAY, THIS IS IN THE POWERS OF THE ARIZONA BORDERERS.

THERE'S 22 STATES WHO HAVE ENACTED POLICIES AND NOT ABOUT AN IMMIGRATION MATTERS AND ENSURING THE PEOPLE WHO GREW UP IN THE STATE HAVE THAT OPPORTUNITY.

>> NOT ABOUT IMMIGRATION BUT EDUCATION.

>> NO, IT'S NOT.

IT'S AN IMMIGRATION ISSUE AND WE'RE NOT FOCUSING ON IT.

IT'S INAPPROPRIATE TO ASK VOTERS TO WEIGH IN ON SOMETHING THAT WON'T FIX THE PROBLEM.

THE ISSUE WITH, YOU KNOW, THIS POPULATION HERE IN THIS COUNTRY ILLEGALLY IS THEIR STATUS AND WE SHOULD FOCUS ON THAT AND THIS WILL FALL INTO PLACE AND THIS WON'T BE AN ISSUE.

FURTHERMORE, VOTERS WEIGHED IN AND OVERWHELMLYING SUPPORTED NOT GIVING ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS IN-STATE TUITION.

>> WHEN PROPONENTS SAY, WE NEED MORE TEACHERS AND ENGINEERS AND STATE UNIVERSITIES, THESE STATE UNIVERSITIES AND NOT OUT OF STATE TO STAY HERE AND WORK, YES, BUT THAT'S BESIDE THE POINT?

>> BECAUSE THAT'S NOT THE POINT.

THIS IS AN IMMIGRATION ISSUE.

AND IF YOU HAVE BUSINESS COALITION LEADERS THAT BELIEVE THAT THIS POPULATION IS DESERVING OF A DISCOUNT IN TUITION, PUT THEIR MONEY WHERE THEIR MOUTH IS AND SET UP SCHOLARSHIPS TO BACKFILL THE IN STATE AND OUT OF STATE PRICE AND I DON'T SEE THEM DOING THAT.

IT'S NOT LIKE THAT CAN PURSUE HIGHER ED AND NOT GETTING AT IN-STATES PRICE.

YOU NEED TO BE A CITIZEN.

IF YOU FIX THE CITIZENSHIP ISSUE, THIS WILL BE MOOT.

BUT TO SUGGEST THAT THIS IS ANYTHING OTHER THAN AN IMMIGRATION ISSUE IS REALLY NOT DEALING WITH THE PROBLEM IN FRONT OF YOU.

>> LET'S GET BACK TO THE ACTUAL PROPOSITION AND THE IDEA THAT TWO YEARS OF BEING IN SCHOOL IN ARIZONA, A HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATE, IS THE TWO-YEAR BAR TOO LOW?

IT WILL COST TOO MUCH TO THE STATE AND THAT'S ONE OF THE PROP AS MICHELLE REFERRED TO, ONE OF THE REASONS THAT WAS PASSED, WAS THE COST TO THE STATE.

SHOULD THAT BE A FACTOR TO BE CONSIDERED?

>> THE REALITY IS THAT NOW PROP 308 PASSED WITH BIPARTISAN SUPPORT WITH BOTH OF THE EDUCATION COMMITTEE CHAIRS IN THE SENATE AND SUPPORT, WHY?

BECAUSE THE NUMBERS DON'T LIE.

WE HAVE SOMEONE LIKE ME WITH A BACHELOR'S DEGREE, WE'RE PAYING THIS FORWARD RATHER THAN LEAVING.

IF YOU LOOK AT THE CALCULATIONS, EVERY GRADUATE WAIT LEAST A BACHELOR'S DEGREE, IT'S SIX HUNDRED THOUSAND RETURN.

LET'S RETAIN OUR TALENT AND THEY'RE NOT LEAVING THE STATE.

>> WHAT WOULD YOU THESE STUDENTS DO?

>> THEY CAN WORK ON THEIR IMMIGRATION STATUS.

THE BIPARTISAN SUPPORT, I WOULD HARDLY CALL THAT.

THEY HAD TO OVERRIDE THE SPEAKER IN THE HOUSE AND USE A PROCEDURAL MANEUVER TO GET THIS BILL TO THE FLOOR AND VERY CONTROVERSIAL AND IT WAS VOTED OUT WITH ALL DEMOCRATS AND A FEW RINOS.

>> YOU KNOW HOW THAT WORKS, MICHELLE.

YOU GET ONE VOTE AND THE OTHER SIDE SAYS THAT'S BIPARTISAN.

>> YES, BUT SUGGESTED THIS WAS A BIG BILL AND EVERYBODY WANTED TO SEE IT PASSED IS NOT ACCURATE.

>> WHEN YOU SAY THIS IS AN IMMIGRATION ISSUE, THERE ARE EDUCATION COMPONENTS HERE AND AN EDUCATIONAL FALL-OUT, IS THERE NOT?

AND WHEN YOU SAY WE CAN GO TO A COLLEGE, I'M TRYING TO GET A REALISTIC ASPECT AND DO YOU THINK KIDS WERE BROUGHT HERE BY HERE THAT ARE UNDOCUMENTED AND DO YOU THINK THEY ARE THE FINANCIAL RESOURCES?

>> I THINK PEOPLE DO NOT HAVE THE RESOURCES.

THIS IS ABOUT AND THIS CONVERSATION IS ABOUT THIS INITIATIVE AND I THINK A BETTER USE OF PEOPLE'S TIME AND RESOURCES, IF YOU CARE ABOUT THIS WOULD BE TO GO TO WASHINGTON WHERE YOU ARE THE PRESIDENCY AND CONGRESS AND LOOK TO PUSH THROUGH REFORMS THAT DEAL WITH THIS IN A MUCH MORE HOLE LISTHOLEISIC FASHION.

IT DOESN'T MATTER HOW MANY BENEFITS YOU GET.

IT'S CITIZENSHIP YOU'RE AFTER, IS IT NOT?

>> IS CITIZENSHIP WHAT YOU'RE AFTER HERE AS OPPOSED TO AN EDUCATION?

>> THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE PROP, EVEN THOUGH I AGREE ANOTHER LEVEL.

IN-STATE TUITION IS A STATE LEVEL AND STATE HAS THE POWER TO DECIDE HOW TO COOL CALCULATE THIS AND WHAT HAPPENED IN 2006, IF YOU LOOK AT THE POPULATION, OUR FIRST NINTH GRADERS WERE BORN THEN AND THIS IS TO PROVIDE IN-STATE TUITION FOR DREAMERS LIKE ME TO BE TREATED LIKE OUR PEERS.

>> FOR THE OTHER SIDE FOR FAIRNESS INCLUDES PEOPLE THAT ARE PAYING OUT OF STATE TUITION AND ARE AMERICAN CITIZENS AS OPPOSED TO FOLKS WHO ARE HERE NOT AMERICAN CITIZENS AND WANT THAT IN-STATE TUITION, DO YOU SEE THE FAIRNESS ARGUMENT THERE?

>> AND I THINK WHAT IS IMPORTANT TO SAY IS THAT THEY HAVE A CHOICE, LET'S SAY, FOR EXAMPLE, SOMEONE FROM CALIFORNIA WANTS TO PAY IN-STATE TUITION, THEY CAN GO AND ACQUIRE THAT.

WE'RE ASKING FOR ARIZONA DROMERS DREAMERS WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN PAYING IT FORWARD AND GROWING UP.

>> LAST QUESTION, THE IDEA THAT IT'S ONLY RIGHT, THE RIGHT THING TO DO, TO ALLOW THESE KIDS WHO ARE LIVING HERE, GRADUATING FROM OUR HIGH SCHOOLS TO HAVE IN-STATE TUITION AND HOW DO YOU RESPOND?

>> IT'S NOT THE RIGHT THING.

IT'S THE WRONG THING AND WON'T FIX OUR BROKEN IMMIGRATION SYSTEM.

>> AND THE LAST QUESTION FOR YOU.

COULD THIS BE CONSIDERED AS SOME SAY, A MAGNET FOR ADDITIONAL ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION?

>> I WANT YOU TO THINK ABOUT THE DATA.

THERE'S 22 STATES THAT HAVE NOT SHOWN ANY RECORD THAT IS A MAGNET FOR IMMIGRATION AND CLOSE YOUR EYES AND YOU'RE AN ARIZONA VOTER, IMAGINE YOU'RE IN MY SHOES.

I HAVE TWO BACHELOR DEGREES, A MASTERS IN EDUCATION AND A CERTIFICATE FROM HARVARD AND I MADE A CHOICE TO STAY IN ARIZONA BECAUSE THIS IS HOME.

>> WE HAVE TO WRAP IT UP RIGHT THERE.

GOOD TO HAVE YOU BOTH AND GOOD CONVERSATION.

>> THANK YOU.

>> THANK YOU.

>> AND UP NEXT ON ARIZONA HORIZON, A DISCUSSION ABOUT THE IMPACT OF INDEPENDENT VOTERS ON ARIZONA AND NATIONAL ELECTIONS.

A >> CONSUMER PRICES ARE ON THE RISE AND COMING UP ON ARIZONA PBS.

>> INDEPENDENT VOTERS MAKE UP A THIRD OF ARIZONA'S ELECTORATE AND HAVE BECOME A MAJOR INFLUENCE ON THE STATE'S ELECTION RESULTS AND TITLED THE INDEPENDENT VOTER AND LOOKS AT THOSE THAT REJECT IDENTIFICATION WITH EITHER EFFORT MAJOR PARTIES.

WE HAVE TOMORROW THE CODIRECTORS FOR AN INDEPENDENT AND SUSTAINABLE DEMOCRACY AND GOOD TO HAVE YOU BOTH HERE.

>> THANK YOU.

>> THANK YOU.

>> JACKIE, GIVE ME A DEFINITION AND DEFINE INDEPENDENT VOTER.

>> THESE ARE AMERICANS WHO ARE MAKING A STATEMENT OF NONCOMPLIANCE WITH THE TWO PARTIES AND WITH THE CURRENT POLITICAL CULTURE.

>> DO THEY WANT A THIRD PARTY, AN INDEPENDENT PARTY, OR JUST CAN'T STAND THE OTHER TWO?

>> I WOULD SAY BOTH.

PEOPLE FEEL DIFFERENTLY ABOUT THE QUESTION OF A THIRD PARTY.

THOUGH, THAT'S COMING INTO PUBLIC DISCUSSION MORE NOW THAN IT HAS BEEN FOR AWHILE.

BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING, I THINK INDEPENDENCE DON'T LIKE PARTISANSHIP AND FEEL THE PARTIES ARE INTERESTED IN PRESERVING THEIR OWN POLITICAL POWER THAN IN REPRESENTING THE CONSTITUENTS THAT THEY'RE SUPPOSED TO REPRESENT.

>> IS THAT WHAT WE'RE SEEING, TOM?

>> I THINK IT IS, AND THAT'S WHY WE WROTE THIS BOOK AND THAT'S THE FOCUS OF THE CENTER.

AT A TIME OF ELECTION REFORM, IT'S A HOT TOPIC OF DISCUSSION AND A FOCUS EXAMINATION ON THE RISE OF THE INDEPENDENT VOTER AND KIND OF THE THIRST WE'RE SEEING ACROSS THE UNITED STATES IN NON-PARTISAN GOVERNANCE IS THE FOCUS OF THE CENTER AND BOOK.

>> IMPACT ON YOUNGER VOTERS, ARE YOUNGER VOTERS MORE LIKELY TO BE MORE NORTHEAST VOTERS?

>> THERE'S 50% OF MILLENNIALS ARE NONAFFILIATED AND WE'RE SEEING NATIONALLY 40% TO 50% OF IDENTIFIED.

THIS ONLY PHENOMENON OF PEOPLE LEAVING THE TWO-PARTY SYSTEM AND AS I MENTIONED BEFORE, A THIRST FOR NON-PARTISAN GOVERNANCE, IT'S A TOPIC OF DISCUSSION.

>> LATINO, BLACK, INCREASING ROLES THERE?

>> VERY MUCH SO.

IN ARIZONA, THE LATEST STATISTICS, 41% OF LATINOS IDENTIFY AS INDEPENDENTS AND AFRICAN-AMERICAN, AMONG YOUNGER PEOPLE AND IRAQ AND WAR VETERANS, THE NUMBERS ARE GOING UP, UP, UP AND WHAT TOM IS SAYING HERE, WHICH IS THAT THIS IS NOT JUST A MOMENTARY PHENOMENON, BUT A REFLECTION OF A DEEP DISTRESS WITH THE DIRECTION THE POLITICS HAS TAKEN AND AN EFFORT BY MANY DIVERSE AMERICANS, INCLUDING HERE IN ARIZONA TO SAY, I'M GOING TO GO A DIFFERENT ROUTE.

>> IS THERE SUCH A THING AS A PURE INDEPENDENT OR ARE WE TALKING ABOUT DISGRUNTLED DEMOCRATS AND DISGRUNTLED REPUBLICANS TO CHANGE THEIR IDEA BUT VOTE ALMOST A STRAIGHT-PARTY TICKET?

>> THAT'S AN EXCELLENT QUESTION.

TO OUR KNOWLEDGE, THE FIRST CENTER TAKING A DEEP DIVE TO LOOK AT THE INDEPENDENT VOTER.

OUR BOOK IS A COMPREHENSIVE, DEEP DIVE IN ADDRESSING ALL ISSUES AND WHAT YOU DRIVE UP IS IMPORTANT.

FOR A LONG TIME, THE POLITICAL SCIENCE FIELD ASSUMED THAT MOST INDEPENDENTS LEANERS.

REPUBLICAN, DEMOCRAT OR INDEPENDENT, WE DO A FOLLOW-UP QUESTION AND SAY, DO YOU LEAN REPUBLICAN AND DO YOU LEAN DEMOCRAT AND HA-HA, YOU'RE LEANERS AND SOME SUGGEST THEY'RE LEANERS OR EMBARRASSED BY THE PARTY.

THAT IS A CENTRAL ISSUE LOOKING TO STUDY INDEPENDENT VOTING OVER TIME.

>> IT'S INTERESTING WHEN YOU TOOK ABOUT INDEPENDENCE LEANING ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

BACK IN THE OLD DAYS, YOU HAD REPUBLICANS WHO WOULD VOTE DEMOCRAT AND DEMOCRATS WHO WOULD OCCASIONALLY VOTE REPUBLICANS AND THEY'RE LEANING AS WELL, AREN'T THEY?

>> YEAH.

THE WHOLE QUESTION OF VOTER MOBILITY, I THAT'S IMPORTANT.

WE HAVE A NOTION THAT PEOPLE ARE IN A ZONE AND THEY'RE ON A ROAD AND THAT'S WHERE THEY'LL STAY AND THAT'S WHAT THEIR IDENTITY IS.

AND HEY, I WANT TO VOTE FOR THE PERSON, NOT THE PARTY.

YOU TALK TO YOUNGER PEOPLE, THEY FEEL THE PARTIES AND THE PARTY'S SYSTEM HAVE BECOME SO CORRUPT THAT THEY DON'T WANT TO BE IDENTIFIED WITH IT.

>> IF YOU DON'T WANT TO BE IDENTIFIED WITH THE PARTICULAR PARTY, HOW DO YOU BAND TOGETHER ON ISSUES?

HOW DO YOU BAND TOGETHER TO GET SOMETHING DONE WHEN IT'S -- YOU HAVE HERDING CATS HERE.

>> THE QUESTION IS, INDEPENDENTS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AND THAT'S WHAT WE ADDRESS IN THE BOOK.

PEOPLE ARE LEAVING THE TWO-PARTY SYSTEM AND MOST ARE DECIDED IN THE PRIMARY.

YOU SHOULD NOT HAVE TO JOIN A PARTY IN THE UNITED STATES TO VOTE.

AND THAT'S WHAT'S HAPPENING BECAUSE INDEPENDENTS, WHICH MAKE UP THIS LARGE BLOCK OF VOTERS ARE DISENFRANCHISED BECAUSE THEY CAN'T PARTICIPATE IN THE PRIMARY WHERE MOST DISS ARE DECISIONS ARE MADE.

>> THE PUBLIC ASPECT, LET'S SAY INDEPENDENTS SIDE THEY DECIDE THEY WANT THIS AND THAT AND HOW DO YOU BAND TOGETHER WHEN YOU'RE INDEPENDENTS?

>> YOU SWING THE RESULTS OF ELECTIONS AND WE'VE SEEN THAT ON A NATIONAL LEVEL, INDEPENDENTS BROKE SUBSTANTIALLY FOR BARACK OBAMA IN 2008 AND SUPPORTED DONALD TRUMP BY FOUR POINTS IN 2016 AND THEN THEY BROKE BY 13 OR 14 POINTS FOR THE BIDEN AND HARRIS TICKET IN 2020.

SO THIS GOES UP AGAINST THE LEANER ARGUMENT HERE AND THIS IS NOT A COMMUNITY OF AMERICANS WHO ARE KIND OF GOING IN ONE DIRECTION.

THEY'RE MOVING AROUND THE FIELD AND THEY WANT TO VOTE FOR THE PERSON, NOT THE PARTY AND THEY WANT SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PROCESS ITSELF.

>> TED, WHEN WE LOOK AT RESEARCH AND NATIONAL DATA OVER TIME.

WE'VE DONE THAT FROM 1972 TO 2020 AND WE FIND THAT INDEPENDENTS MOVE IN AND OUT OF INDEPENDENT STATUS.

AND THEY MAY LEAN IN ONE ELECTION AND THEN SOMETHING ELSE MAY MOTIVATE THEM.

WE HAVE TO HAVE A DEEP UNDERSTANDING OF WHO THESE VOTERS ARE.

>> HAVE YOU SEEN INDICATIONS PARTY NOT IDENTIFIED AND SWITCH BACK TO A PARTICULAR PARTY?

>> OR MOST RECENT RESEARCH OUT OF OUR CENTER, LOOKING AT THAT DATA AND DOCUMENT THAT WE LOOK AT NATIONAL DATA AND WE DO SEE THAT AS A GROUP, THEY'RE DISTINCT AND A BIT UNPREDICTABLE AND VOLATILE.

>> THEY VOLATILE ENOUGH TO BE A THREAT TO THE MAJOR PARTY?

>> COULD ONE OF THE MAJOR PARTIES DISINTEGRATE BECAUSE SO MANY PEOPLE HAVE LEFT TO BECOME NOT NECESSARILY THE OTHER PARTY BUT INDEPENDENTS?

>> YES.

[ Laughter ] >> THANK YOU.

>> IN A WORD.

[ Laughter ] >> I THINK THEY'RE INCREASINGLY DECIDING ELECTIONS.

IF YOU LOOK IN ARIZONA, THEY'RE A THIRD OF THE POPULATION AND MARICOPA COUNTY, THEY'RE THE LARGEST GROUP OF VOTERS AND HOW THEY VOTE, WHO THEY VOTE FOR AND IN SUPPORTING ONE PARTY OVER TIME IS CRITICAL INFORMATION.

>> BUT LET'S JUST PICK A PARTY AND SAY, SO MANY RUSHING A WAY AND THE PARTY NOW IS BECOMING THIS AS OH PERCENTAGED OPPOSED TO WHAT IT WAS BECAUSE SO MANY HAVE BECOME INDEPENDENTS.

CAN THOSE INDEPENDENTS A THIRD PARTY THAT EVENTUALLY KILLS OFF THAT OTHER PARTY?

>> THAT COULD HAPPEN AND OBVIOUSLY, EITHER SEEING A HUGE AMOUNT OF CONFLICT AND VOLATILITY INSIDE THE DEMOCRATIC PARTIES AROUND DIFFERENT ISSUES AND GOING IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS AND SO FORTH.

BUT THE KEY THING HERE IS THAT THE INDEPENDENT COMMUNITY IS SAYING, WE'VE GOT TO REGION HOW WE DO POLITICS AND THIS COUNTRY.

POLITICAL POLARIZATION, THE ENCOURAGEMENT OF HATE, THE ENCOURAGEMENT OF DESTRUCTIVE CONVERSATION IN WHICH YOU CAN'T HAVE A DIALOGUE ABOUT ISSUES, THAT'S JUST GOT GOOD.

>> MAYBE OTHER NON-PARTISAN ALTERNATIVES.

THE SECRETARY OF STATE'S OFFICE, WE'RE THE ONLY DEMOCRACY IN THE WORLD THAT ELECTS THE SECRETARY OF STATE AND CHIEF OFFICER.

WE TELL THEM TO RUNS A PARTISANS EXPECT DAY AFTER THE ELECTION, THEY'RE SUPPOSED TO BE FAIR ASH ARBITRATORS.

PERHAPS IT'S NOT EITHER PARTY AND MAYBE WE LOOK AT MORE NON-PARTISAN IN GOVERNANCE.

>> LAST QUESTION, WHAT DO PEOPLE TAKE FROM THIS BOOK?

>> THAT THERE IS SOMETHING AFOOT IN THIS COUNTRY WHICH IS NOT UNDERSTOOD BY THE POLITICAL SCIENCE COMMUNITY, WHICH IS DISTORTED BY THE PUNDITS AND THE POLITICIANS.

BUT WHICH NEEDS A DEEPER LOOK AND I THINK A MORE CREATIVE AND IMAGINATIVE LOOK AT THE NEW DIRECTION THAT IS EMERGING.

>> WHAT DO YOU WANT PEOPLE TO TAKE FROM THE BOOK?

>> THE INDEPENDENT VOTER IS COMPLEX.

IF PEOPLE FROM ACADEMIA OR THE POLITICAL STRATEGIST UNDERSTAND INDEPENDENTS, THEY HAVE ANOTHER THING COMING.

>> THE BOOK IS TITLED THE INDEPENDENT VOTER.

GOOD TO HAVE YOU BOTH.

>> THANK YOU, TED.

>> TOMORROW ON ARIZONA HERSELF, HORIZON, ANOTHER CLEAN ELECTION'S DEBATE FOR THE SUPERINTENDENT OF PUBLIC DESTRUCTION AND THAT'S TOMORROW ON ARIZONA HORIZON AND DON'T MISS THAT.

THAT IS IT FOR NOW AND I'M TED SIMONS AND THANK YOU FOR JOINING US AND YOU HAVE A GREAT EVENING!

COMING UP IN THE NEXT HALF HOUR ON ON CRONKITE NEWS, LOCAL WIND AND WATER DAMAGE AFTER THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE KAY.