♪.

TED: COMING UP NEXT ON "ARIZONA HORIZON," IT'S A JOURNALISTS' ROUNDTABLE.

A LOOK AT WEEK'S TOP STORIES INCLUDING NEW PLAN TO GIVE ARIZONA TEACHERS A 7% RAISE.

JOURNALISTS' ROUNDTABLE NEXT ON "ARIZONA HORIZON."

ANNOUNCER: THIS HOUR OF LOCAL NEWS IS MADE POSSIBLE BY CONTRIBUTION FROM THE FRIENDS OF PBS.

MEMBERS OF YOUR PBS STATION.

THANK YOU.

TED: GOOD EVENING, AND WELCOME TO "ARIZONA HORIZON."

I'M TED SIMONS.

IT'S FRIDAY AND THAT MEANS TIME FOR THE JOURNALISTS' ROUNDTABLE, AND JOINING US TONIGHT FOR A LOOK AT THE WEEK'S TOP STORIES, JEREMY DUDA OF AXIOS PHOENIX, LAURIE ROBERTS OF "ARIZONA REPUBLIC" AND AZCENTRAL.COM.

WE'LL START WITH THE PLAN, THIS WOULD HAVE TO GO ON THE BALLOT, REPUBLICANS THIS WEEK SAID, LOOK, AN OLD IDEA IS NEW AGAIN?

>> THIS IS SOMETHING THAT THE LEGISLATURE HAS TO ADDRESS NEXT YEAR.

WE'VE BEEN WAITING AROUND TO SEE WHAT WOULD BE DONE AT SOME POINT, WHO WOULD BE INVOLVED, AND PICKING UP WITH A NOVEL IDEA.

THIS IS PROP 123, WE REMEMBER EARLY FROM DOUG DUCEY'S ADMINISTRATION, IT INCREASED THE AMOUNT OF MONEY STATES GET FROM THE LAND TRUST.

THIS IS A SPECIAL ELECTION, HAD TO GO ON THE BALLOT, NARROWLY PASS IT.

ENDED LONG RUNNING LAWSUIT OVER SCHOOL FUNDING.

SO REPUBLICANS WANT REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP.

WANT TO KEEP IT GOING WITH ONE MINOR CHANGE THE MONEY NEEDS TO GO ALL TEACHERS' SALARY WHERE ARIZONA IS NOTORIOUSLY LACKING COMPARED TO OTHER STATES.

TED: SOUNDS LIKE PROP 123 HAS TO BE ADDRESSED BY 2026 OR 2025.

>> EXPIRES END OF 2025.

TED: PROP 123 BUT EARMARKED FOR TEACHERS.

>> THE MONEY WOULD BE EARMARKED FOR TEACHERS, $300 MILLION.

$4,000 A YEAR RAISE, AND ACCORDING TO THE PEOPLE WHO ARE PUTTING THIS TOGETHER, THE REPUBLICANS, THEIR PLAN IS TO BACKFILL THE $300 MILLION USED FOR GENERAL SCHOOL EXPENSES FROM THE GENERAL FUND BUDGET.

THEY INSIST THIS WOULD BE NEW MONEY TOWARDS THE SCHOOLS.

TED: THE FUND BUDGET, IS THERE MONEY IN THE GENERAL FUND BUDGET FOR THIS.

>> NOT EXACTLY.

THEY HAVE TO COME UP WITH THE MONEY SOMEHOW.

THAT WAS GOING TO BE REQUIRED ANYWAY.

WHEN IT EXPIRED, THE LAW IN THE COURT RULING REQUIRES THAT THAT MONEY STILL GOES TO SCHOOLS.

SO THE MONEY THEY RAISE, IF THE VOTERS PASS THIS NEW PLAN, WOULD BE NEW MONEY.

BUT THERE'S A COUPLE OF CAVEATS TO THAT, ONE IS, APPARENTLY, IF THE SCHOOL, IF THE K-12 BUDGET GOES THE BE OVER 50% OF THE OVERALL BUDGET, THEY CAN ACTUALLY CUT THIS MONEY.

SO THEY SAY THEY WON'T BUT THAT WOULD BE AVAILABLE TO THEM, AND THERE'S ADDITIONAL SITUATION WHERE THEY'RE PUTTING $75 MILLION EXTRA TO ATTACH TO THAT, AND NOBODY SAID ANYTHING ABOUT THAT.

APPARENTLY THAT GOES AWAY.

TED: THE 50% TRIGGERS, AREN'T PROGNOSTICATION SHOWING 49, CLOSE TO 50%?

>> EVEN IF THEY HAVE THAT ABILITY TO HIT THE TRIGGER, THEY'RE NOT GOING TO MAKE THE CUTS.

NO ONE WANTS TO TAKE THE POLITICAL HEAT FOR DOING THAT, BUT IT'S GOING TO BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THEY MANAGE THIS WITHOUT TAKING THAT MONEY, 300 MILLION A YEAR, PUTTING IT INTO TEACHERS' SALARIES.

AN AREA OF GREAT NEED IN THE STATE WITHOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF MATH AND BUDGET CRISIS, $400 MILLION NEXT YEAR, PROBABLY A LOT HIGHER AND MORE THAN THAT THE NEXT YEAR, NOT A LOT OF EXTRA MONEY TO GO AROUND, IF YOU NEED TO START FINDING SOME PLACE TO COME UP WITH EASY 300 MILLION SOMEWHERE.

>> REMEMBER, THIS DOESN'T KICK IN UNTIL FISCAL 2026.

THEY SHOULD BE BACK IN THE BLACK, SO I'M TOLD.

IF THEY QUIT DOING ALL THE $6.5 BILLION SPENDING SPREES.

THE REPUBLICANS KNOW THE SCHOOLS ARE POPULAR, THEY ALSO KNOW THAT DEMOCRATS MAKE A REAL PLAY TO GAIN CONTROL OF THE LEGISLATURE.

HERE THEY COME WITH SOMETHING ON THE BALLOT AT THE VERY SAME TIME SAYING HERE WE ARE THE REPUBLICANS AND WANT TO RAISE TEACHER PAY, WHICH IS A REALLY GOOD MARKETING STRATEGY, AND THE DEMOCRATS ARE FURIOUS.

TED: ALL THE DEMOCRATS CALLED IT A SHELL GAME AND HALF-BAKED.

>> YOU READ SOME OF THE STATEMENTS AND IT'S AS THOUGH THEY'RE SAYING HOW DARE YOU RAISE TEACHER PAY IN AN ELECTION YEAR.

EVEN ARIZONA EDUCATION ASSOCIATION, WHICH REPRESENTS TEACHERS, IS GRUMBLING ABOUT THE FACT THAT JANITORS AND CUSTODIANS AND LIBRARIANS AND OTHER SUPPORT STAFF WOULDN'T BE PART OF THIS, AND, YES, I THINK WE SHOULD ALL AGREE THEY GET RAISES TOO, BUT REPUBLICANS ARE QUITE FURIOUS ABOUT THE 20 BY 20 PLAN THAT WAS SUPPOSED TO RAISE TEACHER PAY BY 20% AND ONLY RAISED IT 16%.

IF YOU GO PRAGMATCALLY, IT'S NOT LIKELY REPUBLICANS PUT IN THE MONEY.

QUESTION IS, DO YOU WANT TO RAISE TEACHER PAY OR NOT IN AN ELECTION YEAR.

TED: WE SHOULD MENTION, NOT ALL REPUBLICANS ARE HAPPY WITH IT.

JEFF DEWITT SAID IT'S LIKE PAYING SOMEONE BY TAKING MONEY OUT OF THE 401(k) BECAUSE OF THE INVESTMENT NATURE OF ALL THIS.

HE DIDN'T LIKE THE NEW PLAN EITHER.

>> IT'S TRUE.

HE MADE THE SAME POINTS, RAIDING THE STATE LAND TRUST FOR MONEY THAT COULD BE FOUND ELSEWHERE, POTENTIALLY ANYWAY.

AND FOR EATING THE SEED CORN OF THIS LAND TRUST MONEY THAT'S SUPPOSED TO GO FOR FUTURE SCHOOL USE.

BUT THERE'S NINE MILLION ACRES THAT COULD BE USED.

IT COULD BE A WHILE BEFORE THAT'S USED UP, BUT THERE ARE SEVERAL THINGS THAT COULD GO WRONG, THE ECONOMY COULD GO MORE SOUTH ISSUES AND THEN THE MONEY THAT WE GET FROM THE LAND TRUST WOULDN'T BE AS MUCH BUT USING THE HIGHER PERCENTAGE.

TED: SHOULD MENTION DeWITT IS STATE CHAIR GOP.

IT WILL BE A FACTOR ON THE BALLOT, IF IT MAKES THE BALLOT NEXT YEAR?

>> I WOULD IMAGINE SO.

IT'S MARKETED AS FREE MONEY FOR TEACHERS' HIGHER SALARIES, AND THAT'S SOMETHING FOLKS WANT TO SUPPORT CONSIDERING HOW LOW SALARIES ARE COMPARED TO OTHER STATES.

OTHER STATES RAID OUR GRADUATING CLASSES AND RECRUIT FROM HERE.

LAURIE MENTIONED THAT SOME DEMOCRATS ARE NOT SO HAPPY ABOUT REPUBLICANS STEPPING ON TOES ON THIS.

THEY DON'T NEED THE DEMOCRATS FOR THIS AT ALL.

AS LONG AS EVERY REPUBLICAN VOTES FOR THIS IN THE LEGISLATURE, I WOULD IMAGINE, FALLS ON THE LINE.

THEY DON'T NEED THE GOVERNOR, REFER THINGS TO THE BALLOT, HAVE KATIE HOBBS' SIGNATURE.

I WAS ASKING HER ABOUT THIS AT A PRESS CONFERENCE THE OTHER DAY, FOR SEVERAL DAYS, AND ALL WE HEARD, I HAVEN'T READ IT, I DON'T KNOW THE DETAILS, I CAN'T COMMENT YET.

SHE'S SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHER PAY FOR TEACHERS BUT DOESN'T HAVE AN OPINION ON THIS.

IF SHE DOESN'T LIKE, IT WANTS SOMETHING DIFFERENT TO RENEW PROP 123, SHE CAN'T GET THAT THROUGH THE LEGISLATURE, SHE HAS TO PUT HER SHOULDER ON OUTSIDE INDEPENDENT INITIATIVE TO COMPETE WITH IT.

MIGHT BE SUCK IT UP AND TAKE IT OR SPEND A LOT OF POLITICAL CAPITAL DOING SOMETHING DIFFERENT.

TED: LAURIE, THERE WAS A LEGISLATIVE PANEL ON VOUCHERS, THE APPROPRIATE GOVERNANCE OF ESAs, KICK THINGS UP THE FLAGPOLE.

HOW MANY IDEAS WERE KICKED UP THE FLAGPOLE?

>> ZERO, THIS WAS A PANEL CREATED AS PART OF A BUDGET COMPROMISE.

I THINK THE DEMOCRATS WANTED IT, IT HAS A BIG LONG NAME LIKE THE HOUSE AD HOC COMMITTEE ON GOVERNMENT BLAH, BLAH, BLAH, SO THEY MET EXACTLY BETWEEN MAY AND NOW TWICE.

TWO TIMES, AND HAD HEARINGS ABOUT THE NEED FOR WHETHER OR NOT THEY BELIEVE THAT THERE IS A NEED FOR MORE ACCOUNTABILITY AND BETTER OVERSIGHT OF THE ESA PROGRAM NOW THAT IT IS BALLOONING UP TO A FEW MILLION DOLLARS A FEW YEARS AGO TO NOW UP TO 780 MILLION THIS YEAR.

DO WE NEED TO BETTER MANAGE THIS PROGRAM?

THEY CAME UP WITH NO IDEAS, WHICH I HAVE TO ASSUME READING BETWEEN THE LINES, MEANS THEY DON'T SEE POSSIBILITY OF PROBLEMS WITH FRAUD OR WASTE.

MEANWHILE, YOU HAVE ABC 15 THAT LOOKED INTO HOW SOME OF THIS MONEY IS BEING SPENT.

IT'S RIDICULOUS.

$4,000 PIANOS, SKI PASSES TO SNOW BOWL, TRAMPOLINE PARKS.

LEGO SETS.

TED: YES.

>> I THINK THERE ARE PLENTY OF PEOPLE THAT WOULD SAY ESAs ARE HERE TO STAY, THE LEGISLATURE IS NOT GOING TO GET RID OF THEM.

THEY'RE NOT GOING TO CAP THEM, BUT COULD WE HAVE MORE ACCOUNTABILITY AND MORE TRANSPARENCY SO WE CAN SEE WHO ARE GETTING THESE?

>> APPARENTLY THEY ARE GOING TO HAVE MORE TRANPARENCY.

THE HEAD OF THE ESA PROGRAM FOR THE ADE PROMISED TO DELIVER MORE INFORMATION ONLINE.

>> THIS IS THE GUY WHO APPROVED THE $4,000 PIANO FOR A KID'S LIVING ROOM, RIGHT?

>> I THINK SO.

WE'LL KNOW MORE ABOUT THE PIANOS AND THE GUITARS THAT ARE COMING IN, AND LEGO SETS.

THEY'LL PUT MORE INFORMATION ABOUT NOT ONLY THE TYPES OF THINGS BEING BOUGHT BUT THE TYPES OF STUDENTS COMING INTO THIS ARE THESE PEOPLE COMING FROM PUBLIC SCHOOLS TO PRIVATE SCHOOLS, THERE IS NOT QUITE AS MUCH OF A LOSS FOR THE STATE, OR THE NEW KIDS COMING IN.

DO THEY HAVE DISABILITIES WHICH MAY COST THE STATE MORE?

THOSE TYPES OF THINGS ARE GOING TO LET US KNOW BETTER HOW MUCH IT COSTS.

>> WE GOT A SNAPSHOT INTO THAT THIS WEEKEND, THEY SAID 40% OF THE CHILDREN GETTING THESE CAME FROM PUBLIC SCHOOLS.

THAT MEANS 60% DIDN'T COME FROM THE PUBLIC SCHOOLS, WHICH MEANS WE HAVEN'T BEEN PAYING FOR THOSE KIDS.

>> TRUE, APPARENTLY IT'S NOT EXPENSIVE SO FAR AS SOME HAVE FEARED.

WE'RE ABOUT $40 MILLION IN THE HOLE POTENTIALLY FOR THE PROGRAM, BUT SAID THAT'S ACTUALLY -- THEY'RE NOT CERTAIN THAT THAT MEANS THERE IS A DEFICIT THERE BECAUSE THE OVERALL BUDGET FOR K-12 IS SO GIGANTIC, THAT YOU COULD FIND $40 MILLION AMONG THE BILLIONS THEY ALREADY GET.

TED: IS THIS UNTOUCHABLE IN THE NEXT SESSION?

EVERYTHING IS A-OK, KEEP ON MOVING?

>> COMPLETELY UNTOUCHABLE.

THIS IS SOMETHING THAT LEGISLATIVE REPUBLICANS HAVE BEEN BUILDING TOWARDS FOR MANY YEARS.

THEY STARTED THIS PROGRAM FOR I THINK JUST FOR DISABLED STUDENTS.

14, 12, HOW MANY YEARS AGO, AND EVERY YEAR ADDED NEW GROUPS, KIDS IN FAILING SCHOOLS, KIDS ON THE RESERVATION, ET CETERA, UNTIL THEY REACH THE ULTIMATE GOAL, THIS EXPANSIVE SCHOOL CHOICE PROGRAM WHERE ANY KID COULD USE THE VOUCHER-STYLE PROGRAM.

THEY GOT THAT.

YOU TOOK A COUPLE TRIES AND SENT TO THE BALLOT, AND GOT REJECTED.

I THINK THIS IS A HILL THAT MOST OF THE REPUBLICANS ARE WILLING TO DIE ON NEXT SESSION.

CERTAINLY SPEAKER TOMA, SENATOR PEDERSEN ARE NOT GOING TO LET IT GET SCALED BACK OR REDUCED.

WE SAW KATIE HOBBS CAME OUT WITH THE BUDGET PLAN, WE WANT TO GET RID OF THIS OR SCALE IT BACK.

THOSE WERE EMPTY WORDS ON A PAPER.

IT WAS ABSOLUTELY NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

TED: LAURIE, YOU HAD IDEAS, AS RAY CAN INFER, WHO'S GETTING THESE?

WHAT ZIP CODES?

ACCOUNTABILITY?

>> RIGHT, ARE HE'S CHILDREN -- WHEN THEY EXPANDED IT, IT'S ABOUT GETTING POOR KIDS OUT OF FAILING SCHOOLS.

NEVER MIND THE FACT THAT POOR KIDS IN FAILING SCHOOLS WOULD HAVE ALREADY QUALIFIED FOR ESA.

ARE THOSE THE KIDS THAT ARE GETTING THESE ESAs OR KIDS IN THE SUBURBS FROM PROPERTY RICH DISTRICTS WHERE THE STATE ISN'T PAYING FOR ANY PORTION OF THEIR EDUCATION NOW BECAUSE LOCAL TAXPAYERS HAVE ENOUGH PROPERTY VALUATION TO PICK UP THAT?

OR ARE THEY PRIVATE SCHOOLKIDS WHO FIGURED OUT A WAY, WERE JUST HANDED WHAT AMOUNTS TO FREE MONEY BECAUSE THEY NO LONGER HAVE TO PAY TUITION?

WHO ARE THESE CHILDREN?

THAT WOULD HELP US FIGURE OUT, IS THE PROGRAM COSTING THE STATE MONEY OR ULTIMATELY SAVING THE STATE MONEY?

TED: YOU ALSO LET THE AUDITORGENERAL OVERSEE THE PROGRAM.

>> GET BACK TO THE $4,000 PIANO.

JOHN WARDE, THE ESA EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR HAD, IT BEEN A LUXURY PIANO, WE PROBABLY WOULD HAVE DENIED IT.

GET THE KID A KAZ OO.

TED: THEY HAVE KEYBOARDS.

THESE IDEAS FLOATED AROUND BY GOVERNOR, LAURIE, UNTOUCHABLE STILL?

NONE OF THIS, ACCOUNTABILITY?

ZIP CODES?

>> ACCOUNTABILITY WILL BECOME A BIGGER ISSUE.

TED: HOW BIG AN ISSUE?

>> THAT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH PROD AND WASTE WE SEE COMING UP, THAT'S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN UNTIL NEXT YEAR.

REPUBLICANS WILL SAY IT'S NOT FISCALLY CONSERVATIVE TO HAVE NONTRANSPARENT MONEY PIT THAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN, SO IF THEY DON'T GET AHOLD OF THAT, THEY'LL SEE MORE STORIES.

THE INITIAL COST OF THE PIANOS OR WHATEVER, MAKES FOR GOOD HEADLINES BUT THEY'RE OUT OF WASTE AND ABUSE IN THE PUBLIC SCHOOL SYSTEM, MILLIONS SPENT BY PEOPLE WHO ARE ACCUSED OF EMBEZZLEMENT AND THINGS LIKE THAT RIGHT NOW, AND OTHER PROBLEMS WITH PUBLIC SCHOOLS THAT CERTAINLY REPUBLICANS PERCEIVE IN TERMS OF HOW THERE IS LACK OF DISCIPLINE IN THE CLASSROOM OR CERTAIN THINGS TEACHERS ARE TEACHING.

SO THIS ESA PROGRAM MAY NEED TO GET WORSE BEFORE IT GETS BETTER.

TED: I WAS GOING TO SAY, THOSE ARE ISSUES YOU DISCUSS WHEN DISCUSSING PUBLIC SCHOOL.

THIS IS REGARDING THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS FOR SKI LESSONS AND NINJA LESSONS AND LEARNING HOW TO DRIVE A LUXURY -- AGAIN, OVERSIGHT.

>> TRANSPARENCY, MORE INFORMATION, MORE DETAILS, THESE ARE THINGS YOU MIGHT BE ABLE TO FIND BROADER AGREEMENT ON.

ESPECIALLY IN AN ELECTION YEAR, THIS IS GOING TO BE AN ISSUE NEXT YEAR, DEMOCRATS ARE NOT GOING TO BE ABLE TO ROLL THE PROGRAM BACK OR CAP IT, BUT THEY MAY HAVE TO SETTLE FOR MAKING A POLITICAL ISSUE AND TAKE ON THE LEGISLATURE.

IF YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT MONEY FOR DISABLED KIDS, KIDS IN FAILING SCHOOLS, THAT'S PRETTY POPULAR.

IF YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT 60% OF THE KIDS WERE NEVER IN A PUBLIC SCHOOL, AND KATIE HOBBS AND ALLIES RUNNING FOR LEGISLATURE CAN CAMPAIGN ON WE'RE CUTTING THE BUDGET ELSEWHERE SO RICH PEOPLE WHO SEND THEIR KIDS TO PRIVATE SCHOOL CAN GET $7500 IN TAXPAYER DOLLARS TO GET A DISCOUNT ON IT, THAT'S NOT GOING TO SIT WELL WITH VOTERS.

>> PLUS IT'S GOING TO COST MORE IN THE FUTURE, AND THE OTHER SIDE, THE REPUBLICANS THAT SUPPORT, IT DON'T HAVE THE FACTS TO SAY IT ABSOLUTELY WON'T.

THAT'S STILL UP IN THE AIR.

>> EQUATION THAT WE'LL WORK ON.

ALL RIGHT, LAURIE, KARI LAKE APPARENTLY HAS BEEN ADVISED BY SENATE REPUBLICANS ON CAPITOL HILL TO KNOCK IT OFF WITH THE ELECTION STUFF BECAUSE WE WANT TO SUPPORT AND YOU YOU'VE GOT A SHOT.

>> MOVE ON ALREADY.

I THINK IT'S BEEN DRILLED INTO HER THAT SHE NEEDS TO GET THE SUPPORT OF THE MORE MODERATE WING OF THE PARTY, THE McCAIN WING OF THE PARTY.

THE PEOPLE WHO WALK AROUND WITH THE STAKE IN THEIR HEART FROM LAST YEAR, WHEN SHE BRAGGED ABOUT THE FACT SHE DROVE A STAKE INTO THE HEART OF THE OTHER PARTY, THE LOSERS, SHE'S REACHED OUT TO KARRIN TAYLOR ROBSON AND CATHY PETSAS, SOME OTHER PEOPLE, I GUESS I WON'T MENTION HERE, IN TRYING TO SET UP MEETINGS WITH THEM, TRYING TO MEND FENCES, A DIFFICULT THING WHEN YOU SAVAGED PEOPLE TO THE DEGREE SHE HAS.

I THINK EVERYBODY IN WASHINGTON REALIZES SHE'S THE STANDARD BEARER HERE AND NOT MUCH THEY CAN DO ABOUT IT, FIGURE OUT IF WE CAN FIGURE OUT HOW TO WIN.

THEY'RE TELLING HER GO ON, AND LOOKS LIKE FOR A FEW BRIEF MOMENTS SHE WAS GOING TO DO THAT, IN THIS WEEK, SHE FILES MOTION WITH COURT OF APPEALS ASKING FOR THE 2022 ELECTION TO BE OVERTHROWN, THROWN OUT ENTIRELY, AND DO A REDO OF THE WHOLE ELECTION BECAUSE SHE SAYS MARICOPA COUNTY RIGGED THE ELECTION.

WE'RE RIGHT BACK TO WHERE WE ALWAYS WERE, HER SIGNATURE, ELECTION GRIEVANCE ISSUE.

TED: JEREMY, THE NUMBER THREE IN THE SENATE, ENDORSEMENT.

ELISE STEFANIK, HAS A HISTORY OF HER OWN, ENDORSEMENT.

SOUNDS LIKE THEY'RE READY TO JUMP ON AND SOUNDS LIKE KARI LAKE WAS READY TO TAKE THE RIDE.

NOW YOU'RE BACK SAYING MARICOPA COUNTY RIGGED THE ELECTION?

>> YEAH, AND SHE CAN REACH OUT TO WHOEVER SHE WANTS, CAN SIT DOWN WITH KARRIN TAYLOR ROBSON OR WHOEVER.

WHAT'S GOING TO MATTER IS WHAT DOES SHE SAY AND WHAT IS SHE DOING?

TALKING ABOUT HOW THE ELECTION WAS STOLEN FROM HER, STOLEN FROM DONALD TRUMP?

DOES SHE HAVE THE DISCIPLINE TO STOP TALKING ABOUT IT WHEN PEOPLE ASK HER ABOUT IT, OR IS IT TOO HARD WIRED INTO HER PERSONALITY.

I WAS TOLD RIGHT BEFORE THE PRIMARY, WHEN WE KNEW SHE WAS GOING TO WIN, YOU'LL SEE A PIVOT AND TALKING ABOUT THE ELECTION STUFF, AND THE DAY AFTER THE PRIMARY WE WERE AT A PRESS CONFERENCE AT HER CAMPAIGN HEADQUARTERS, 2020 WAS RIGGED AND TRUMP WON.

THERE WAS NO PIVOT AT ALL, AND I THINK WE SAW THAT COST HER THE ELECTION.

SHE LOST BY 17,000 VOTES.

IS SHE ABLE TO TURN IT OFF?

IS THIS TOO LATE?

SHE WANTED TO PIVOT, THIS WEEK OR LAST WEEK IS NOT THE TIME TO START THAT.

WE'VE KNOWN SHE'S GOING TO RUN FOR SENATE BUT ALL YEAR RUNNING AROUND TALKING ABOUT RIGGED ELECTIONS AND STUFF LIKE THAT.

IS IT TOO LITTLE TOO LATE?

>> SHE'S GOT A PROBLEM THIS YEAR SHE DIDN'T HAVE LAST YEAR WHEN IT WAS HEAD-TO-HEAD WITH KATIE HOBBS, THIS IS A POTENTIAL THREE-PERSON RACE.

THE MORE ESTABLISHMENT REPUBLICANS OR MODERATE OR CONSERVATIVE LEANING INDEPENDENTS HAVE A PALATABLE CHOICE, THEY DON'T HAVE TO HOLD THEIR NOSE AND VOTE FOR RUBEN GALLEGO, THEY COULD VOTE FOR POTENTIALLY KYRSTEN SINEMA, THAT'S A BIG DANGER FOR KARI LAKE.

IF YOU CHANGE YOUR BRAND, DO IT NOW.

SHE'S NOT BEING THAT WELL RECEIVED FROM SOME OF THE MODERATES SHE SAVAGED.

I HEAR WORDS LIKE COLD DAY IN HELL, AND WHAT THEY'RE LOOKING FOR, THE ONES I'VE TALKED TO AT LEAST, ARE VERY PUBLIC APOLOGIES, NOT SO INTERESTED WHAT SHE'LL SAY BEHIND THE SCENES, THEY WANT HER TO SAY NO, I DON'T THINK SUPERVISOR GATES IS A CRIMINAL.

>> WE DID A FOCUS GROUP WITH AXIOS WITH ARIZONA SWING VOTERS, 11 VOTERS WHO VOTED FOR TRUMP IN 2016, BIDEN IN 2020, MOSTLY FEW INDEPENDENTS AND DEMOCRATS, THAT'S ONE OF THE THINGS THEY WERE ASKED.

IN A THREE-WAY RACE, WHO WOULD YOU SUPPORT?

ALMOST ALL OF THEM SAID KYRSTEN SINEMA.

SINEMA IS OUT, ALL BUT ONE SAID GALLEGO.

EVEN ONE WHO SAID LAKE, I WOULD DO IT RELUCTANTLY, BUT I'LL VOTE FOR HER.

TED: CAN THAT CHANGE, A?

AND, B, WHAT DOES SHE HAVE TO DO TO REMOVE THE STAKE FROM THE McCAIN BODY POLITIC AND MAKE NICE?

PUBLIC STATEMENTS, GOODNESS GRACIOUS, YOU BETTER COME ON YOUR KNEES HERE AND COME CRAWLING AND ASKING FOR FORGIVENESS CONSIDERING SOME OF THE -- SHE'S NOT GOING TO DO THAT, IS SHE?

>> DOESN'T SOUND LIKE HER PERSONALITY AT ALL.

I DON'T KNOW HOW SHE'S GOING TO GET OUT OF IT, BUT IF TRUMP CONTINUES TO STAY A PLAYER FOR THE BALLOT, WHICH AND MAYBE BE COMPETITIVE AGAINST BIDEN, MAYBE SHE'S COUNTING ON RIDING THAT WAVE, AND IF SHE PIVOTS, THAT WOULD BE UN-TRUMP-LIKE.

TED: THAT'S A GOOD POINT.

COULD SHE DOUBLE DOWN OR SAY THE HECK WITH THIS?

>> DOUBLE DOWN AND KEEP TALKING TO IT, OR STICK TO THE RIGHT-WING TALKING POINT IT DIFFERENTIATE HERSELF FROM RUBEN GALLEGO AND TRY TO PREVENT KYRSTEN SINEMA FROM SIPHONING OFF TOO MANY REPUBLICAN VOTES.

>> YOU HAVE SEEN RUBEN GALLEGO PIVOT.

A YEAR AGO, THE BORDER WAS A CRISIS AND NOW HE'S TALKING ABOUT THE BORDER IS A CRISIS.

HE'S FAR TO THE LEFT AND TRYING TO PULL HIMSELF MORE TO THE MIDDLE.

>> I THINK HE WAS AT THE MARCH FOR ISRAEL IN WASHINGTON, D.C. AS WELL.

PROBABLY ANGERED SOME OF HIS SUPPORTER.

TED: AND YET HOVERING OVER ALL OF THIS IS THE INCUMBENT NO ONE SEEM TO KNOW.

ARE WE CONVINCED SHE'S RUNNING?

NOT RUNNING?

DO WE KNOW?

>> NO ONE KNOWS FOR SURE.

I'M SKEPTICAL SHE'S GOING TO RUN.

PULLING MEMO, I THINK THE CAMPAIGN TALKED ABOUT SHE COULD WIN IF SHE GETS 70% OF INDEPENDENTS.

NO ONE IS.

60 TO 70% OF INDEPENDENTS DON'T HAVE THE SAME VIEWS ON ANYTHING.

THAT'S A HEAVY LIFT.

A DIFFICULT PATH TO VICTORY.

>> YOU'RE RIGHT, BUT I DON'T TRUST POLLS THAT COME OUT RIGHT NOW.

WE'RE A YEAR OUT.

ALL OF THE PEOPLE IN THE MIDDLE, CENTER THE RIGHT TO CENTER LEFT AND INDEPENDENTS IN BETWEEN ALWAYS SAY WE WANT SOMEONE WHO WILL WORK ACROSS THE AISLE, WHO WILL LOOK FOR BIPARTISAN SOLUTIONS.

WHAT DOES JOE BIDEN DO?

HE LEAVES THE STATE AND ALL OF HIS LEGISLATIVE ACCOMPLISHMENTS CAME AT HAND OF KYRSTEN SINEMA.

SO PEOPLE SAY THAT THEY'RE DOING THIS BUT KYRSTEN SINEMA HAS NOT YET BEGUN A CAMPAIGN, SHE IS THE INCUMBENT, I KNOW SHE'S NOT GETTING A LOT OF FUNDS RIGHT NOW, BUT I DON'T KNOW SHE WOULD NECESSARILY.

>> YOU THINK SHE'S IN?

>> TODAY I DO.

ASK ME TOMORROW, FIVE REASONS WHY SHE'S OUT.

>> INDEPENDENTS HAVE BECOME THE TOP VOTING BLOC IN ARIZONA.

MAYBE THAT'S A GOOD SIGN WITH HER.

TED: RAY, STICKING WITH YOU, A GUY RUNNING IN CD8, JACOB CHANSLEY, OR THE QAnon SHAHMAN.

>> THE QAnon SHAHMAN.

HE'S APPARENTLY NOT CAMPAIGNING IN COSTUME ALL THE TIME.

TED: NO HARM IN FACE PAINT.

>> HE WAS AT CONFERENCE WITH SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE BEN TOMA AND DRESSED IN A WHITE JACKET WITH NO MAKEUP OR HORNS.

>> THAT'S HIS NEW DO.

HE'S SELLING MERCHANDISE ON THE INTERNET THE SAME WAY.

I THINK THIS RACE IS ALMOST EMERGING LIKE A JOKE.

TWO CARPETBAGGERS, A FAKE ELECTOR, A VIKING, A CREEPY CONGRESSMAN AND BEN TOMA.

TOMA NEEDS A MONIKER HERE IF WE GET INTO THE RACE.

>> RIGHT, IF HE'S THE MOST NORMAL ONE, DOES THAT MEAN HE'S GOING TO LOSE?

[LAUGHTER] >> THE THING ABOUT THE RACE IS THE SHAHMAN CAN'T VOTE BY VIRTUE OF BEING A CONVICTED FELON BUT CAN RUN FOR CONGRESS.

>> WE'VE SEEN PEOPLE IN SIMILAR CIRCUMSTANCES RUN IN THE PAST.

WITH A RECORD, YOU CAN RUN FOR FEDERAL OFFICE, YOU JUST CAN'T VOTE FOR YOURSELF.

TED: WITH THE ROSTER LAURIE ANNOUNCED HERE, CAN ANYONE POP UP AND GET 1% MORE?

COULD IT BE SURPRISE TIME?

>> JUST ASK TRENT FRANKS, HOW HE WON HIS FIRST SEAT IN 2002, I BELIEVE.

FIVE OR SIX WAY RACE, VERY CROWDED.

I DON'T THINK HE WAS VIEWED AS THE FAVORITE.

THE VOTE WAS SPLIT ENOUGH, DID YOU NOT NEED TO GET THAT MUCH AND A LOT OF THE FOLKS ARE LOOKING AT THAT POTENTIAL PATH OF VICTORY.

IF I'M BEN TOMA, YOU HAVE FOLKS FROM THE MAGA WING OF THE PARTY, HE'S MORE ESTABLISHMENT.

THE ONE PERSON IT HAS NOT HAD MUCH OF IMPACT ON, THE SHAHMAN, HORNS AND FURS OR NOT.

HOW MANY PEOPLE ARE GOING TO VOTE FOR THE QAnon UNSHAVEN.

>> WHATEVER I SAID ABOUT THE INDEPENDENT VOTERS, IT SHOULD BE KEPT IN MIND THAT THE SHAHMAN IS RUNNING AS LIBERTARIAN, NOT AS REPUBLICAN.

LIBERTARIANS DON'T DO THAT WELL.

TED: A FEW MINUTES LEFT HERE AND WANT TO TALK ABOUT REPRESENTATIVE LEEZA SUN.

WHO WANTS TO TAKE THE QUESTION, WHO IS LEEZAH SUN, START WITH YOU?

>> NATURALLY.

A FIRST YEAR LEGISLATOR WHO HAS A BIT OF A POTTY MOUTH, AND SHE GOT IN TROUBLE AND HER OWN PARTY FILED ETHICS COMPLAINT AGAINST HER INCLUDING THE FACT THAT SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE TOLLESON CITY COUNCIL AND CITY GOVERNMENT FEEL IN FEAR OF THEIR LIVES WHEN SHE'S AROUND IN PART BECAUSE SHE THREATENED TO THROW THE LOBBYIST OFF THE BALCONY BECAUSE SHE WANTED TO KILL HER, AND ALSO INTERFERED IN THE CHILD CUSTODY ARRANGEMENT OF A FRIEND OF HERS TO TRY TO INTERFERE IN THE THING.

SHE THIS WEEK FILED RESPONSE TO THE ETHICS THING AND BASICALLY ADMITTED TO ALL OF IT, OTHER THAN IMPERSONATING KRIS MAYES, BUT SHOULDN'T BE HELD RESPONSIBLE BECAUSE SHE DIDN'T KNOW THE RULES AND SHE'S NOT THAT BIG SO NOBODY SHOULD FEEL THREATENED BY HER.

TED: LIKE FRANK SINATRA, IN MISTAKES I'VE MADE A FEW.

>> SHE DENIED SHE THREATENED TO THROW SOMEONE OFF A BALCONY AND KILL HER AS THE REPORTER SAID AND SAME THING IN REBUTTAL, SHE DIDN'T SAY THAT, SHE SAID IF SHE SAW THAT WOMAN, SHE WOULD B-SLAP HER, AND I'M BEING KIND TO THE VIEWERS HERE, BUT YEAH, WE COULD OBVIOUSLY BREAK THE INTERNET WITH A LOT OF THE CUSS WORDS SHE SAYS.

TED: JEREMY, DOES SHE GET THIS, A, AND B, IS SHE LONG FOR THE LEGISLATIVE WORLD?

>> WE'LL SEE.

I IMAGINE WE'RE GOING TO SEE A FULL ETHICS INVESTIGATION.

BASED ON THE STUFF IN THE REPORT, NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR, WELL, I DIDN'T KNOW SHE WASN'T SUPPOSED TO INTERFERE IN CHILD CUSTODY WHERE SHE'S TRYING TO REMOVE CHILDREN FROM A SITUATION.

NOW SHE KNOWS.

SHE DIDN'T KNOW BEFORE.

THAT DOES NOT SPEAK WELL TO KIND OF THE LEARNING PROCESS.

SHE SHOWED UP -- I CAN'T REMEMBER BY HER OWN ADMISSION OR ACCUSATION WEARING LEGISLATIVE NAME TAG, IDENTIFYING HERSELF AS ELECTED OFFICIAL, WHICH HAS A VERY, DO YOU KNOW WHO I AM FEEL TO IT?

NOTHING LOOKS GOOD TO IT.

>> SHE RELEASED AUDIOTAPE WITH EVIDENCE THAT SHE WANTED TO USE TO PROVE SHE DIDN'T DO IT, AND ALTHOUGH YOU CAN'T HEAR THE WORDS KRIS MAYES IN THIS, SHE DOESN'T COME OFF LOOKING WELL IN THE VIDEOTAPE.

TED: I DON'T WANT YOU TO B-SLAP ME, BUT WE'RE OUT OF TIME.

THAT'S IT FOR NOW.

I'M TED SIMONS.

THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.

YOU HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND.