Henderson: Will the Iowa caucuses be first on the calendar for Democrats in 2024?

We'll talk with Democratic National Committee members Scott Brennan on this edition of Iowa Press, Voiceover: Funding for Iowa Press was provided by Friends, the Iowa PBS Foundation.

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This is the Friday, November 18th edition of Iowa Press.

Here is Kay Henderson.

Henderson: Our guest on this edition of Iowa Press is an Indianola native, who went to college in Grinnell, got his law degree from the University of Iowa, and then worked for Senator Tom Harkin for three years.

Scott Brennan was chair of the Iowa Democratic Party in 2008 and for the cycle in 2014.

He is currently a member of the Democratic National Committee representing the Iowa Democratic Party and also on the Rules and Bylaws committee.

And we're gonna talk a lot about that.

Scott Brennan, welcome to Iowa Press.

Brennan: Happy to be here.

Henderson: Joining the conversation, Brianne Pfannenstiel of The Des Moines Register and Erin Murphy of the Gazette in Cedar Rapids.

Murphy: Scott, that rules and bylaws committee that you're on is right now working on the presidential nominating calendar.

Which states go in what order.

And obviously for a long time, Iowa has been first in that process.

That may no longer be the case.

Why, why is that being reexamined?

What what brought us to this point?

Uh, people may remember the 2020 caucuses and there was a reporting, uh, issue on election night or on caucus night, and that caused a weeks long delay in the results.

Is that the problem?

Or why are we here right now?

Brennan: I've completely forgotten about 2020 <laugh>.

Um, no, 2020 was not our friend.

Um, obviously, and there's been a real move away from caucuses, uh, by the Democratic National Committee.

They view them as inherently undemocratic.

And so from that standpoint, you know, we are sort of just a vestige of history.

Our, our caucuses.

Which is one of the reasons why the current Iowa Democratic Party has made so many changes to the process.

But between what happened in 2020 and their dislike of caucuses.

And, you know, the fact is, I mean, they complain that Iowa was just not as diverse as our Democratic Party writ large.

And so those things combined put us in a bit of a pickle.

Murphy: How do you counter those arguments then?

And, and I know another one is, is being looking for toss up states out there, and it's looking increasingly these days, like Iowa's less of a top state anymore.

How, how do you counter those arguments in, in effort to keep Iowa first?

Brennan: Well, uh, starting with the, the tossup issue.

You know, Iowa has long been a purple state.

Um, you know, last week, uh, was very disappointing from my standpoint.

Um, but you know, essentially we still are a purple state.

We're a third no party, a third Republican and a third Democrat.

And so from that standpoint, you know, we can quickly go back to being that tossup state.

When I was party chair in 2008, we had, the Democrats had the Iowa House, the Iowa Senate, the governorship, uh, Senator Harkin, and, um, you know, uh, a number of statewide elected officials and members of Congress.

So, you know, this is a place where it can turn because we have fair redistricting.

And so from that standpoint, you know, we, we can still play.

Uh, as far as diversity goes, there's an elegance to the four early states.

Um, the current four early states.

And Iowa's role is that, you know, is that working rural working class folks.

Nobody else offers that.

We offer that.

And the fact of the matter is, is that, you know, we can't let the Midwest become a Republican monolith.

You know, having North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, you know, Iowa, Missouri, I mean, you know, if if they all turn red, we can't elect democratic presidents because electoral college math does not work.

And so you have to be able to talk to folks like folks in Iowa.

So those are arguments.

Murphy: To that point, doesn't that make Wisconsin or Michigan more attractive to national Democrats than Iowa?

Brennan: Is Michigan in the Midwest?

Murphy: <laugh>?

Well, we could have that debate.

Brennan: Yeah, yeah.

By, by DNC geography, they are.

But in fact, um, and, and Wisconsin did not apply.

So... Pfannenstiel: The Iowa Democratic Party as, as part of the bid to keep the caucuses, has outlined some pretty extensive changes to the process.

Can you walk us through what some of the biggest changes are?

Brennan: I think the biggest change is, uh, presidential preference cards.

Essentially, it's a form of absentee voting, um, and, and mail-in ballots.

And so, you know, we'd start that process very early.

Historically, we have never done that through the state party, but that, that is the biggest change.

It's primarily a, a mail-in process.

We'll still have caucuses, but they'll go back to really what they were intended to be, which is a meeting, uh, a localized meeting where you do the party business.

But the presidential preference piece would be all by mail.

Pfannenstiel: So caucus night as we know it would, would kind of go away.

Right.

All of all of the, the casting of preferences for president would happen by mail, Brennan: Would happen by mail, but the results would not be reported until caucus night and reported back through the, through the individual caucus sites.

Pfannenstiel: And is it the Iowa Democratic Party's, um, you know, are, are they interested in adopting these changes regardless of what happens with the DNC and whether they keep first in the nation?

Or is this contingent on what the DNC decides?

Brennan: My belief is that the Iowa Democratic Party would go forward with these changes no matter what the DNC decides.

You know, we need to update the caucuses and this is a good way to do it.

Henderson: You mentioned the election results from earlier this month in Iowa.

Doesn't that make your argument harder?

Brennan: Yes Henderson: Than Republicans.

So we've heard from people like Mo Olathe who is a Hillary Clinton, um, staffer in 2016, who's been very critical of, you know, Iowa's, um, status as first in the nation.

How do, how do you respond to the fact that Iowa is now a red state, beyond, beyond the third, a third, a third?

Brennan: Well, Tuesday clearly was not our friend.

It, you know, it was a weird election last week.

If you think about Democrats did poorly, New York, Florida, South Carolina, Iowa, you know, just a weird selection.

I mean, there's no trend that I can see right now.

Um, but you know, historically, I mean, we still have one statewide elected Rob Sand.

Um, you know, and because of our fair redistricting and the way the maps work, uh, you know, we're gonna take back the Iowa House.

Um, you know, maybe this upcoming cycle.

It might take two cycles.

But you know, the Iowa House is gonna be ours.

And, you know, and these Congressional seats, um, certainly three of the four are, you know, razor thin margins.

Um, you know, we had a tough night last week, but, you know, I feel very good about our chances going forward, and that's part of the pitch I'm gonna make.

Murphy: And as Democrats make that attempt and, and try to rebound from this election and, and make those gains you just described, would having first in the nation caucuses help that process or actually hinder?

There are some that say it actually makes it tougher to organize for local races.

Brennan: I've heard that argument.

I disagree with it.

You know, Murphy: Why?

Brennan: Look, I've put a lot of time into trying to help Iowa remain first.

But I also think that the caucuses are a great organizing tool because it brings resources and, and organizing that would not come here otherwise.

You know, you have those very active presidential campaigns and, and so it, you know, it, it forces organization that we might not do otherwise.

They're, they're trying to reach out to every possible person who could show up and caucus.

And so I just think it's a great organizing tool.

And I think if it goes, you know, if the caucuses, if we're not in the pre window, I think it makes an additional challenge.

Murphy: So how, how is, why has that not happened then in the past?

For example, 2012, um, Barack Obama was successful here in Iowa, but 2014 was a bad year for Iowa Democrats.

If, if, if the caucuses are such a helpful tool, why has that not translated here in, in recent cycles?

Brennan: Well, in 12 it was President Obama's reelect, so he didn't really have a challenge.

So it was, it was very different organizing.

And, you know, in 14, um, we still, you know, Mike Gronstal, uh, coming outta the 14 cycle was still the leader of the Iowa Senate, you know, and we had multiple members of Congress.

So, you know, uh, you know, we're not in as healthy of a position as we were in 14.

Pfannenstiel: Looking to some of the, the biggest names in the Iowa Democratic Party, uh, Tom Vilsack, Tom Harkin, um, even Cindy Axne, to a large degree, has been very absent from this conversation.

Would it be helpful for them to weigh in and, and why do you think they have not publicly?

Brennan: Well, in Senator Harkin's case, because of the Harkin Institute.

I mean, he's really trying to step, has to step back from politics.

Um, and so, you know, I understand that.

Secretary Vilsack is a sitting cabinet member.

Again, you know, you, you're not really supposed to play at politics.

The Hatch Act prohibits that.

And so, you know, I think rightfully so, you know, they're not involved.

Would I love them to be involved?

Sure.

But I just don't think they can be.

And then Congresswoman Axne was obviously razor focused on a very challenging, uh, reelect, um, that didn't turn out the way I wanted.

Pfannenstiel: Is that an indication though, that the Iowa Democratic Party is ready to move on?

You know, as we've been to these DNC meetings, we've seen, you know, other elected officials, other big, you know, big name Democrats weigh in on behalf of their state.

Do you feel a little bit like the Lone Ranger right now?

Brennan: <laugh> That's a great question.

Uh, would I love having a sitting US senator sitting next to me when we're doing a presentation?

It would be great.

But, uh, in fact, we had Chairman Wilburn, the first black chair of the Iowa Democratic Party, you know, making our presentation.

And so, you know, you, uh, deal with the hand that you're dealt.

Henderson: What does President Joe Biden want to do?

He's been sort of silent about this as the Democratic National Committee's rules and bylaws committee has been talking about this.

One would think that somebody who's planning to seek reelection would weigh in.

Has he been approached?

Do you know what the president wants to do?

Brennan: Does the president know what he wants to do?

<laugh> I mean, cuz at this point, I mean, you know, obviously he was focused on the midterms as well.

Um, you know, we're beyond those.

Uh, you know, my understanding is that someone presented him with a proposed, uh, calendar at some point, and, um, he said he didn't wanna think about it now.

And so I assume that they're having those discussions.

Obviously, you know, it impacts him greatly as to what that's gonna look like.

Um, I think as a, you know, that he is likely to get some sort of challenge.

You know, he's not gonna get just a, a cake walk to, uh, a renomination.

And so they have to be making some decisions.

But we've not heard from the White House at all.

Henderson: So let's say, uh, you're in the Oval Office or at the Biden home in Delaware, and you get to have a conversation with President Biden.

What would be your argument for keeping things the way they are?

Not upsetting the apple cart.

Brennan: The current four state process has resulted in the popular vote, uh, the Democratic nominee winning the popular vote in what the last four cycles.

Why would you mess with success?

Why risk it to, to satisfy some, you know, vague belief that, you know, that we need to do something different when in fact, you know, we've, we've won the popular vote time after time?

And, you know, I just, it seems crazy to me that you would, you would mess with success.

Henderson: We were, um, told this past week that the Democratic National Committee has sent communication staff to Iowa and other early states.

Is that some sort of signal?

You're a DNC insider.

Do you know why they did that?

Brennan: <laugh> Uh, well, they're clearly preparing for, uh, the, you know, a reelect.

Um, but if, if you note that what it, I think what it said was that they were sending it to the, the, uh, four early Republican primary state, four early Republican states.

And so... Henderson: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada, Brennan: Nevada.

And, you know, they're preparing to have, you know, know that they get pushback because you're gonna have all those Republican candidates flooding the place, particularly with President Trump's former President Trump's terrible rollout this week of his, you know, his announcement.

Murphy: So that's more of having a counter message for the Democrats for when these Republican candidates are coming in, is that what you're saying?

Brennan: Yes.

Yes.

I think it was much more in the way of a counter.

Murphy: Okay.

Um, you laid out at the start of this, some of the things that the national, the, the, the bylaws committee has asked for.

Want to get away from caucuses, want a more diverse state, want a toss up state.

Those criteria seem pretty targeted at what Iowa currently is.

Do you feel, as you've gone through this now, and we're months and months into this process, that Iowa has received a fair hearing in its proposed changes and any chance it has to remain first or an early voting state?

Has, has your message received a fair hearing, do you feel?

Brennan: I think so.

Um, you know, you know, certainly, you know, I, I've met with a number with most of the committee members individually as well.

And, you know, I feel like we're getting, we're getting a very fair hearing.

Um, you know, ultimately we'll find out whether, you know, if, if the process is, is as open and transparent as they keep claiming it's going to be, um, then that's fine.

If it turns out that there was a lot of, uh, deals being made behind the scenes, you know, that's a problem.

Henderson: Speaking of deal making, I have an unusual question.

So it's the, the Rules and Bylaws committee that's going to recommend a sequence of events for the 2024 presidential nominating season.

Then that recommendation would be ratified by the Democratic National Committee of which you're a member.

Is there any chance that the Democratic National Committee would not accept what the Rules and Bylaws Committee recommends?

Brennan: It would be very unusual.

Uh, but, you know, there's always a possibility.

I mean, particularly if, if we actually make a decision, you know, we're meeting December 1, 2 and 3 in Washington.

If we make a decision then, um, and set a calendar and the next DNC meeting's probably not until late February, early March, you know, it's certainly time to whip votes to do something different.

But if the calendar we have has been blessed by the, by the president, you know, my assumption is that it will, it will fly through the full DNC.

Henderson: Speaking of whipping votes, um, South Carolina's, James Clyburn was in Iowa campaigning with Congresswoman Cindy Axne a couple of weeks before the election.

And you met with him.

And, and for people who may not be familiar with Clyburn, he sort of whipped votes in South Carolina for Joe Biden who won the South Carolina primary.

So what was that conversation like?

What were you asking?

Brennan: I was just reminding him that the four early state process has been very successful and that, that the RBC member from South Carolina is a woman named Carol Fowler.

Um, her, her, um, now deceased husband.

Don was a former head of the full DNC.

But, uh, I just wanted to make sure that, you know, he, he remembered us as in his conversations with the White House and, um, and, you know, and talked about, you know, my long time relationship with Carol.

Murphy: So just to drill down on this one last time before we move on, did you ever have a feeling during this process that the books were cooked, that you were up against it from the start?

Or, or do you genuinely feel like Iowa's case is being heard?

Brennan: When the process started, It seemed like it was, it was a lot of folks looking for a pound of flesh and retribution for, uh, failures in 2020.

I get, I get less that feeling now.

I think we've gotten a fair hearing and now it's, you know, we've just, you know, we're, we're working whatever angles we have.

Pfannenstiel: Going into those meetings, what is your expectation of what will happen?

Do you think Iowa will stay first?

Brennan: That's a great question.

I wondered when we're gonna get to that <laugh>.

Um, I have great hopes that we'll remain in the pre window.

Whether we are first or not remains to be seen.

Um, you know, I can weave all sorts of scenarios under which, you know, we should just remain first because it's easier.

Um, we've kicked the can down the road so long that, you know, at some point it becomes political malpractice if you don't settle on a calendar.

And we're getting close to that point in my mind.

And so, you know, I think there is a, we, you know, we have a shot at remaining first.

Pfannenstiel: And if Iowa does not remain first, certainly there's a contingent here in Iowa of people who think that, um, Iowa Democrats should go ahead and do it anyway without the DNC's blessing.

What will Iowa do if it gets kicked back to the end of the line?

Brennan: I have no earthly idea.

I mean, you know, that'll be a decision that the, that clearly the, the state central committee will have to make.

You know, Iowans by their nature are rule followers.

I think if it's, if it's ultimately believed that it was a fair, transparent and open process, most folks will, will probably cede to whatever the results are.

But certainly if there's a belief that, you know, to use your phrase, the the books were cooked, you know, who knows?

All bets are off.

Henderson: So apparently five early states are the conversation currently.

Right?

Brennan: Up to five.

Henderson: Up to five.

So let's say Iowa gets spot number five.

Would voting by mail, voting by mail, the preference cards by mail, would that start when the first contest starts?

So could you meet the standard of being co-first?

Brennan: I, my recommendation again, you know, you know, we we're writing the delegate selection plan now.

But I see no reason why we wouldn't start, uh, sending out presidential preference cards January 2nd, 2024.

So, you know, I mean, people can turn their ballots in right away.

Henderson: So Iowa's Caucuses that are held by Democrats and Republicans have been held on the same night for decades.

Is that helpful?

What happens if that is not the case going forward?

Brennan: I think that's one of the things that the DNC, you know, and the RBC have not really thought about.

I mean, I, it, it seems to me that it would be a very weird process to have the Iowa Republicans and, you know, and you know, the plethora of, uh, uh, you know, I was gonna, I was gonna use a bad phrase as to the candidates who are becoming, but, but a, uh, you know.

But that crowd of Republican candidates, um, here gobbling up all the media attention and then on the Democratic side have no contest.

Because the Iowa Republicans are gonna go first no matter what.

You know, New Hampshire Republicans aren't gonna move up if New Hampshire's first.

Nevada Republicans aren't gonna move up if the Nevada Democrats are first.

And so it sets up a very weird process that I don't think they really have thought through.

Henderson: Well, and you could have people voting in both, right?

Brennan: Well, it's, it's the same day registration.

Murphy: Yep.

You mentioned the, uh, need to still be active in rural Midwest states, uh, like Iowa.

We're hearing that same argument.

They say politics makes strange bedfellows.

We're hearing that same argument from Iowa Republicans too, like the state party chairman Jeff Kaufmann, and, uh, former governor Terry Branstad recently.

How concerning is that to you, that if Iowa is not maintained in this early voting window, that it's a signal or that, or especially that your political opponents will, will argue that that's a signal that nationally Democrats have given up on states like Iowa, and would that make it harder to elect Democrats here in the future?

Brennan: Well, well, certainly that's an argument that we've made to the folks at, at the DNC as well.

That, you know, you, you don't turn your back on places like Iowa.

You know, I think that part of our problem, um, last week was that in, in, you know, three of our Congressional races, the national money didn't come like it might have otherwise, because Sean Patrick Maloney was in trouble in New York and other, you know, other places.

And, you know, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee funnels its money around, you know, they're just, they're sort of vicious bean counters and that's what they do.

And, and, um, you know, so I think that's a problem.

Um, you know, Iowa Republicans I think are probably edgy as well.

I mean, if, if Democrats aren't first here, um, then, you know, is the target on them next?

Pfannenstiel: As a former party chair, coming off of the election cycle that we just had, what's your postmortem?

Where do Democrats go from here to try to rebuild the party and kind of claim back the seats that they lost?

Brennan: Clearly, we've got hard work to do.

We, we've, we've gotta get back out and talk to folks in rural areas because, you know, we, we don't have to win, um, Adams County, but we can't lose 90 to 10.

And so we need to, you know, get out.

And we need to sell, frankly, what President Biden's done.

I think we've done a miserable job of telling folks, you know, you know, Iowa has gotten $5 billion.

Governor Reynolds taking credit for most of the 5 billion that came into the state of Iowa.

And, you know, and in fact it came through from the federal government.

And we need to remind folks that, you know, the federal government exists to help people.

And it has helped a lot of Iowans.

And we just did, we've done a terrible job of telling that story.

So we need to do that.

We had some really good candidates.

You look, we've got, um, the most diverse group of, uh, Iowa House folks ever elected.

Um, I think Jennifer Konfrst, Leader Konfrst, has 16 new members.

I mean, you know, there are lots of folks out there that are energized and ready to do the hard work that we need to do.

Murphy: What's your take on, you mentioned earlier how some of the results were kind of interesting and unique, depending on different pockets of the country.

Nationally, the red wave did not happen as expected.

But it certainly did in Iowa.

What, what's your, why do you, what's your sense of that?

Why did Republicans fare so well here when they didn't in many other states, including some kind of similar to Iowa?

Brennan: Short answer is, I don't know.

I mean, I haven't seen the numbers yet.

I mean, and that's gonna be a piece of it.

Um, you know, I mean, it's interesting.

You know what, Rob Sand outperformed the top of our ticket by I think 170,000 votes.

Um, you know, so how did that work?

And something else didn't work?

And, you know, we just don't know.

Henderson: Um, we have about a minute left.

I'm wondering, in this season, has the ghost of Christmas past sort of explained that you may be in this predicament because after 2016's caucuses, when there was a virtual tie between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton, that changes weren't made.

And have Democrats sort of dug their own grave because changes hadn't ever been made to the process of the caucuses?

Brennan: I don't think so.

You know, the caucuses have been improved every cycle.

Um, the caucuses are different than when I was chair in '08.

And so I think that the caucuses have actually improved every cycle.

We've made more dramatic changes because the DNC demanded it.

And really in 2016, there was, there was not a push to get rid of the caucus process by the national Democrats.

But since 2016, there's really, you know, Tom Perez, when he was head of the DNC hated caucuses.

And it was very obvious.

Henderson: Well, I'm sorry to be obvious about the timing, but we are out of it today.

<laugh> Thanks for joining us for this conversation.

And we may have you back after that December decision to talk about what's next.

Brennan: Happy to do it.

Henderson: Thanks to you for watching this edition of Iowa Press.

You can see every episode online at iowapbs.org.

For everyone here at the network, thanks for watching.

Voiceover: Funding for Iowa Press was provided by Friends, the Iowa PBS Foundation.

The Associated General Contractors of Iowa, the public's partner in building Iowa's highway, bridge, and municipal utility infrastructure.

Small businesses are the backbone of Iowa's communities, and they are backed by Iowa banks.

With advice, loans, and financial services, banks across Iowa are committed to showing small businesses the way to a stronger tomorrow.

Learn more at iowabankers.com.