[Kay Henderson] 2026 will be a big and busy year in Iowa politics.

We'll talk about what's happening and what's ahead with two experienced political insiders on this edition of Iowa Press.

♪♪ [Announcer] Funding for Iowa Press was provided by Friends, the Iowa PBS Foundation.

Banking in Iowa goes beyond transactions.

Banks work to help people and small businesses succeed, and Iowa banks are committed to building confident banking relationships.

Iowa banks, your partner through it all.

♪♪ For decades, Iowa Press has brought you political leaders and newsmakers from across Iowa and beyond.

Celebrating more than 50 years on statewide Iowa PBS, this is the Friday, December 19th edition of Iowa Press.

Here is Kay Henderson.

[Henderson] If you're watching this program, you probably know there have been some pretty big political announcements in 2025 and 2026 is shaping up to be a momentous campaign year in Iowa.

We have two guests today to talk about the campaign trail because they've been down it many, many times.

Let me introduce them.

Jimmy Centers is a co-founder of Cornerstone Public Affairs, where he is a managing principal.

He has political experience from local campaigns to presidential campaigns.

He was communications director for the Terry Branstad Kim Reynolds gubernatorial administration.

Welcome back to the program, Jimmy.

[Jimmy Centers] Thanks for having me, Kay.

[Henderson] Also joining us is Matt Paul.

He has worked at all levels of government, from local to federal.

He worked for Tom Vilsack and Tom Harkin.

He was Iowa state director for Hillary Clinton's 2016 ccampaign.

And he co-founded Cornerstone Public Affairs, where he is a principal and director.

Welcome back, Matt.

[Matt Paul] Thanks, Kay.

Great to be here as always.

[Henderson] Also joining our conversation is Brianne Pfannenstiel of the Des Moines Register.

[Brianne Pfannenstiel] We've been talking a lot about the future of health care in Congress this week, especially as we approach what some people are calling the Obamacare cliff as the enhanced premium subsidy tax credits are set to expire on January 1st.

We've seen a lot of proposals come out about how to deal with that.

Democrats, of course, are pushing for a clean expansion of those ACA subsidies.

Republicans have been reticent.

But we saw this week a group of moderate Republicans break from the party, join with Democrats to add to to force a vote on that issue.

Matt Paul, what does that say about the year ahead and what these midterms could look like?

[Paul] Well, I think, Brianne, it represents what's coming at Republicans, which is a very challenging political year.

What happens between now and Election Day 26?

We shall see.

But there's no question that health care continues to be of the utmost importance to voters across the country.

It impacts them every single day.

And I think based on the president's plummeting poll numbers, based on what they're hearing at home, for those that have town halls, they are hearing a lot of concern about this, that these ACA programs work, that they're effective and that they make families lives safer and better.

And I think you're beginning to see, and I think we'll see more of of Republicans finding and trying to find real estate between themselves and the White House on this issue.

[Pfannenstiel] Jimmy Centers, Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn in two very competitive reelection cycles.

Coming up, how would you advise them to vote on that bill as it comes up in January?

[Centers] I think they should listen to their constituents and do what's best for their constituents and their district.

I don't dispute what Matt says at all in terms of affordability being front and center of voters minds, and certainly something that elected officials are very aware that American families and Iowa families are facing.

But I think it's also really important to remember how we got to this affordability crisis with inflation through the roof during the COVID era, we spent a lot of money at the federal level that led to this skyrocketing inflation.

And I think members of Congress and our elected officials have an obligation then to rein in the spending to bring that back down.

Inflation is coming down not quickly enough, but it is coming down from all that spending during the COVID era.

[Henderson] Let's shift gears to the two big announcements.

I alluded to just a few moments ago.

Kim Reynolds in April said she would not seek reelection.

And then in September, Joni Ernst made it official she will not seek reelection to the U.S.

Senate in 2026.

So to both of you, what is the opportunity for Republicans here in an era when it's open season?

[Centers] Well, it's an incredible opportunity for the strong bench of Republicans that have been built over the years to take that next step.

And in the Senate for the U.S.

Senate, I expect Congresswoman Ashley Hinson to cruise to a primary victory and become the nominee for that seat.

And I think she'll run a very strong and formidable campaign, being the favorite going into November.

I don't think she's going to take anything for granted, but I do think she'll run very strong on the Republican side for the gubernatorial primary.

There is a strong field.

You have Congressman Randy Feenstra, you have former Das director Adam Steen.

You have a newcomer in Zach Lane.

Looking at it, a state representative, and Andy Andrews and I could go on and on.

I think that's going to be a spirited primary.

We'll see when fundraising numbers are reported in January how those shake out.

I expect Congressman Feenstra to post a strong number.

And if some of those other candidates are north of $2 million, then watch out.

We could have a more competitive primary than what we are initially expecting.

[Henderson] So, Matt, what is the opportunity for Democrats in this environment?

[Paul] Jimmy's right.

I agree with Jimmy.

Republicans have built a large bench since they've been in charge of the state House for now, 15 years.

Unfortunately, they've not built a better Iowa.

And I think there's a tremendous opportunity for us, namely in the governor's race.

I think Rob Sanders run a very strong campaign.

The fact that he's been in every county, not that not just that he's been in every county, but that that his campaign has reached out to Republicans, has reached out to independents, I think was incredibly smart.

And I think she's going to be in a very strong position now.

He's got to execute and and build a campaign into the new year.

I think also, since we've got an open Senate seat and an open governor's race for the first time since 1968, before I was alive, this is, I think, going to create a lot of excitement.

I'm really proud of of local Democrats who have stepped up and built their own, their own operation and worked with the party to strengthen their operation on the ground, identify new candidates.

There's momentum out there and an opportunity out there.

We'll see if Democrats can capitalize on it in the new year.

[Henderson] Jimmy, he's mentioning perhaps the special elections that have been held in legislative races around the state, openings caused by people moving on, and sadly, people passing away.

There's been a lot made about Democrats gaining ground in those areas.

Do you see that as a harbinger for 2026?

[Centers] It's certainly something Republicans should be mindful of, but I don't think it's something that is indicative to what's going to happen in a statewide election for governor, for U.S.

Senate, and even in these congressional races.

You know, if, if and frankly, I don't even think auditor Rob sand, if you look at his past performance four years ago, he squeaked by with a few thousand vote victory over a fairly unknown candidate.

And so I don't just as I don't believe that is going to be a harbinger for how he's going to run this upcoming year.

I don't think a special election is really indicative of a governor's governor's race to come.

[Pfannenstiel] Well, speaking of the governor's race, I've been to a lot of events for this robust Republican field and pretty consistently at them people are talking about Rob Sand in a way that kind of indicates some nervousness, some worry that he's a very real candidate.

Do you think Republicans are right to be nervous about him this year?

[Centers] They should take every candidate that they're opposed to seriously.

That's how you win and run strong.

Certainly he is a different kind of candidate than we faced in the past.

A Jack Hatch, for example, a Fred Hubbell, for example, and the list goes on and on.

But at the same time, running for state auditor is a much different animal than running for governor.

And so when the bright lights come on, auditors sand during the gubernatorial race, I think he's going to face tough questions that he hasn't yet faced as state auditor.

[Paul] Even more reason for him to get out across the state, as he has done over the last year and connect directly with Iowans and hear about that and not just go to the blue counties of Polk and Linn and Johnson and other places, but to get out in Crawford County and get up to northwest Iowa and far southeast Iowa and northeast Iowa.

I think that was I think that was incredibly important.

These process make you better, good candidates and good elected officials find their moment, and they listen and they get better.

And I think he's he's used 25 extremely well and has gotten better.

And will will see him build this as as Jimmy references as we enter the real stretch of this race where the intensity picks up, the scrutiny picks up, and and they're Iowans really sort of dial in on the race.

[Pfannenstiel] Well, and as we move into that period where the intensity and the scrutiny picks up in the new year, and especially as we get closer to the primary and beyond, what what advice do you give to Rob Sand and his campaign as as they take more of that incoming and especially in the legislative season when he might be taking some some incoming attention from legislators as well?

[Paul] I think it's it's not just to provide the contrast.

Republicans are giving us plenty of issues to talk about and connect with voters about, whether it's health care, whether it's the administration not being able to do anything about rising prices, whether it's Christmas this year, estimated to cost 26% more than it did last year, all of these challenges that are out there from a message and environmental standpoint for Republicans, but you've got to offer a path forward.

Where do they want to take Iowa?

I think Jimmy and I have been privileged to both work for governors, and it's it's an office like no other.

And I think incredibly important in a state like Iowa, a smaller state of 3 million people, you set the pace for the state.

And I think you need to you need to paint a picture for Iowans about what you'll do for them and their families, and where you'll take the state into the future.

And I think that's what he needs to do in 26.

[Pfannenstiel] And, Jimmy, you mentioned those fundraising numbers that we'll see coming in January.

This is going to be our first real glimpse at how much these governor candidates have been raising over the past year.

You mentioned what you expect to see from Republicans.

What what kind of money are they going to have to raise to be competitive?

And how expensive could this race get?

Overall.

[Centers] It'll be an expensive race.

As Matt referenced, this is the first open gubernatorial seat since the 60s.

This opportunity doesn't come around very often, so I think they'll be robust numbers.

It's going to it's going to take a healthy budget.

What I'm most interested in actually in the numbers coming up is how broad is Rob Sand's fundraising numbers.

Last year, he teased before the report came out that he raised millions from grassroots donors.

Actually, 7 million came from his family and there wasn't very much left over from grassroots donors.

So is he actually connecting?

Is the 99 county tour that Matt referenced actually resonating with people so much so that they're investing in him?

[Henderson] What happens if Rob Sand faces Zach Lane, who is also relying on family money?

[Centers] Iowans are are going to hear from both of them regardless, the money spends the same and buys television advertisements, and I think both of them will continue to do grassroots outreach.

[Henderson] Speaking of lanes, do you see lanes in the GOP primary for governor?

[Centers] Certainly.

[Henderson] And who's leading?

[Centers] Leading in each lane?

I think Congressman Feenstra has done an exceptional job of bridging lanes, of changing lanes, if you will, to talk to each individual group.

Certainly Zach Lane has the an endorsement from Omaha affiliated group.

That's certainly helpful, but President Trump has not weighed in yet, and that is the most important endorsement in this primary.

And people are waiting to see if the president is going to weigh in.

And certainly whoever gets that endorsement is going to have a leg up.

[Henderson] One thing that Brianne and I have noticed as we've been covering this gubernatorial race, is that a litmus test among Republicans seems to be the pipeline.

Do you see that as well?

[Centers] Certainly, it's a hot button issue that Republicans are asking all of the candidates about.

Ultimately, it seems as though most of the Republicans are aligned and have a similar position on this, that eminent domain ought not to be used for these pipelines.

So I don't know how big of a differentiator it's actually going to be at the end of the day.

And we'll also see what happens at the legislature this year.

Majority leader in the Senate has a bill out this week that would address some of the concerns around that.

If we get a bill passed and the governor signs it this legislative session, it might be moot by the time the primary rolls around.

[Henderson] Let's talk about the U.S.

Senate primary.

Matt, what's your assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the field that Democrats have?

[Paul] I just want to go back to the governor's race.

I'll get to that.

Don't worry.

I'm anxious to talk about this.

I think primaries are a good thing for the party and for the for the candidates.

But Feenstra has a major problem here.

There's a lot of chatter about his the race that he's running.

Concern is time goes on and he doesn't get the president's endorsement.

And maybe he gets it tomorrow.

I think it will be a huge help to him and probably cement him as the nominee.

But his campaign has a lot of hand-wringing motivation going on on on the Republican side.

And he's got to address that.

And has not expressed thus far that he's he's willing to sort of listen and get better.

Thus far in the process, we got a long way to go.

I understand that, but on the Democratic side, in the Senate race, I think you've got two really strong candidates that are both running great races from different lanes.

You've got Josh Turek as a relative newcomer to this, who, since his launch has excited a lot of people and has been out there raising money, talking to folks around the state.

But he faces a challenge from Senator Zach Wahls, who's been around a little bit longer, who's had leadership positions in his party, has at the same time, though not been shy about expressing his concerns with leaders in the party.

So sort of contrasting messages.

But again, I think regardless here, whoever wins is going to come out stronger.

I also think it's really important because it's helping us.

That sort of level of interest and what Rob is doing and getting out across the state is helping us draw in voters, and I think this is going to be really important going into '26, because Republicans have got a big jump on us in voter registration, and we've got to close that gap if we want if we want these races to be real.

So I think that's an important component of that Senate primary.

[Henderson] Jimmy, the Senate race, you've already talked about Ashley Hinson, who's running there, is a former state senator who's running against her in the GOP primary.

But I want to ask you about how this is going to show up on the national landscape.

Is this going to be a top five race, top two race for Republicans to invest in nationally?

[Centers] It depends on how that shakes out and what Democrat I think comes out of that primary and how well positioned and strong they're running.

Coming out of that primary.

But I expect Congresswoman Ashley Hinson to win that primary and to be a very strong candidate to to be in a position so that national Republicans don't have to put it in the top tier of seats to hold come November of next year.

[Pfannenstiel] Moving to some of these congressional races, the first and the third have historically been the most targeted here in Iowa, we think about the third district, where Representative Zach Nunn is is seeking reelection as being the most competitive.

Based on those voter registration numbers.

But we're seeing a lot of national attention coming in for Mariannette Miller-Meeks in the first district.

Jimmy, who do you see as being more vulnerable going into 2026?

[Centers] I think both districts are going to be competitive.

It's a midterm of a president in his second term.

Historically, regardless of party.

It's always tough for the party in power.

And so for Congressman Zach Nunn, Congresswoman Miller-Meeks, they're very well aware of that.

They both have challengers on the Democratic side.

We'll see who comes out of the primary, but appear to be formidable and experienced and good fundraisers.

They're not taking anything for granted.

They're running strong already and getting out and talking to voters and getting their message out.

But I don't think that there's one over the other that's going to be tougher.

They're both facing similar circumstances as it relates to the voter registration in their districts and the overall environment of a midterm election and the president's second term.

[Pfannenstiel] When you mentioned the president again, he was on TV this week addressing the nation about affordability and the economy.

How closely are their fates tied to the president?

[Centers] I think it's more about their ability to articulate what they're doing to help Iowa families in Washington.

And both of them are doing quite a lot.

Congresswoman Mariannette Miller-Meeks was standing beside the speaker this week talking about her vision for addressing concerns with the rising cost of health care, and both of them are very active in terms of advocating for Iowa agriculture and supporting our farmers and producers.

So I think that's going to carry the day ultimately next November.

[Pfannenstiel] And, Matt, aside from kind of the broader political climate, what do Democrats in the state have to do differently than they've done in the last couple of cycles in order to actually flip those seats?

[Paul] Well, I think they're going to reflexively be able to talk about a lot of issues, whether it's water quality, whether it's health care, whether it's cost of living, that they provide the contrast and, and what they can do to make Iowans lives better.

But they've got to chart a path forward.

They've got to share their vision, and they they've got to make Iowans feel secure and safe.

And I think that Republicans are I think we've got to be prepared for Republicans to get really strong and real negative in these races.

But there's a lot of opportunity around just plain and simple residency.

There are these questions about where Representative Miller-Meeks lives and where she's registered to vote.

There's questions about former state Representative Joe Mitchell and where he lives and is now from southeast Iowa, was representing folks down there, but is now taking a place, apparently in Clear Lake.

So there are all kinds of these residency questions that have to be sorted out as we move forward.

But I think we've got to be able to capitalize on what is a really good environment.

And you do that by connecting with voters, by being out there, being engaging.

And so far, if you look at the balance sheet, I think Democrats are out there a lot more directly at the kitchen table, engaging with Iowans than we're seeing Republicans do.

[Pfannenstiel] Well, speaking of this broader climate, right.

We've seen the swings for Democrats being pretty strong in some of these national special elections.

It's even got some Democrats looking at Iowa to as possibly in the range, are Democrats overestimating the environment?

[Paul] Perhaps.

But if you look from Sioux City to Clinton, there was a recent special in Fort Dodge.

On average, Iowa Democrats have overperformed since the last general by 21 points.

That's pretty significant.

So there's opportunity out there.

I think, you know, as we enter into the new year and the midterms, you have to look realistically at at these races and where you have opportunities, where you have the best candidates.

And but I hate to sound like a broken record, but I will you get better as you go through a primary and you strengthen your ability to deliver a message.

And so let's let's let these primaries play out.

[Henderson] Jimmy, Brenna Bird thought about running for governor.

She did not.

She likely would have had Donald Trump's endorsement had she done so.

What sort of reelection does she face?

Obviously, the first time an incumbent goes up for reelection, they're the most vulnerable that the information that you see, the data seems to show that how how do you view her future in Iowa politics?

[Centers] I think it's bright.

I think it's a bright future.

She has done an exceptional job as our attorney general.

I expect her to run very, very hard in her first reelection here as attorney general.

And I expect her to win reelection as attorney general from there.

It's anyone's guess where she goes, but I do think she'll have the opportunity to run for higher office, whether that be governor, whether that be U.S.

Senate or something else will be up to her.

But I respect her decision.

I'm glad she's our attorney general, and I look forward to seeing what she does in the future.

[Henderson] Matt?

[Paul] I think she is, I think she's smart.

I think she chose not to run this year for a reason, and I think that's important.

I do think we've got a great candidate in Nate Willems out of Mount Vernon who's running a smart campaign.

There was all of his money.

Dark money group came out for her early to go up.

That was curious to me why why folks would choose to do that.

They're apparently seeing something in the data that concerns them.

So we'll see.

We tend to keep our AGS around for a while in the state.

So we have to be realistic about this.

But I think there's an opportunity there based on on the year where we are today.

[Pfannenstiel] Well, we can't let you both leave without talking about the caucuses.

Matt, the Iowa Democratic Party released the results of their kind of internal survey about how Iowa Democrats are feeling about the future of first in the nation.

And it turns out that Democrats are really split about whether they should defy the DNC and go first, no matter what, or try and play ball with with the National Party.

Was any of that surprising to you, and how would you advise the party to kind of think about that moving forward?

[Paul] I would advise the party to do everything they can do to win in '26.

You can't make the case for Iowa unless you can show some wins on the board.

We're a year from this, from this decision on the early calendar being made.

But I think we need to use that time.

I'm really proud of of the local leadership we're seeing come out of this process.

And Democrats winning these special elections from Sioux City to Clinton.

I think we need to continue focused on winning, and we'll deal with the caucuses after we get through the midterms.

[Centers] If Democrats don't win one of the two statewide, they have the DNC and the Iowa Democratic Party to blame.

The lack of investment in infrastructure that has been a result of the DNC pulling out of Iowa and the Iowa caucuses, and IDPs willingness to just go along and take their cues from the DNC is unconscionable.

It's been an incredible disservice to Iowa Democrats, in my opinion, and I thank our lucky stars that we have a chairman like Jeff Kaufmann, who has fought to keep Iowa first on the Republican side.

[Paul] Thank you for sticking up for Iowa Democrats, Jimmy.

I appreciate that.

[Pfannenstiel] Well, and, Jimmy, really quick, before we wrap up, 2028, we'll start very quickly for Republicans who are expected to keep first in the nation, when do you expect to start seeing those folks coming in?

[Centers] There are plenty of opportunities to come early and often with an open gubernatorial seat and an open Senate candidate, open Senate seat, I invite them all to come straight away when the calendar flips to 2026.

[Henderson] Is JD Vance the leader of the pack because he's the vice president?

[Centers] I would say so, but I think others are going to take a look at it, too.

[Henderson] What about Donald Trump?

[Centers] I don't think he is going to dip his toe in that water.

But stranger things have happened.

[Henderson] Well, no more stranger things happening right now because we are ending this conversation.

Thanks to both of you for being here today.

[Paul] Thank you.

[Centers] Thank you, Kay.

[Henderson] You may watch every episode of Iowa Press at iowapbs.org.

For everyone here at Iowa PBS, we'd like to wish you a happy and healthy holiday season.

♪♪ [Announcer] Funding for Iowa Press was provided by Friends, the Iowa PBS Foundation.

Banking in Iowa goes beyond transactions.

Banks work to help people and small businesses succeed, and Iowa banks are committed to building confident banking relationships.

Iowa banks, your partner through it all.