>> Ted: In the next hour on "Arizona PBS," the journalist's roundtable and a look at the week's top stories including next week's primary elections and on break it down, efforts to increase the impact of black women in science, technology, engineering and math and that's all ahead on the next hour on "Arizona PBS."

It's Friday and joining us tonight, Jeremy Duda of Axios-Phoenix and Howie Fischer and Laurie Roberts, thanks for joining us and we start with you, Jeremy for next week, races to watch and trends to consider and a bunch of polls and in general, what are we watching for?

>> Everything.

Of course, the biggest thing everything is watching, the republican primary for governor and we get into the polling numbers.

We have the senate race, black masters in the lead in the republican lead to take on Mark Kelly and we have attorney generals, a six-way race and secretary of state, mark Finchham and trump endorsed candidates.

One interesting, do the trump endorsed candidates win?

>> I think that's the key.

As of Tuesday, will the Arizona republican party be the trump party?

In other words, we've had more years, quote, unquote, the Doug Duceys, the owners of the sport's teams have been the republican party and as of Tuesday, it may not be them controlling it and may be Donald Trump and his followers controlling the party and that's a different, you know, issue.

This goes back to when Evan Makin took back in the 80's and that could spell disaster.

Some I think you should watch a couple of key legislative races.

The trump wing of the party is trying very hard, was not happy during the last legislative session when they got rolled over in the budget and I think they're trying hard to pick up some of the seats.

The last remaining moderate republican has been chased out and retiring this year, Paul Boyer and there's five trump-endorsed candidates, headlined by rusty bowers, and the trump endorsed candidate who believes Satan stole the 2020 election.

>> Ted: That's not a metaphor there.

>> He believes that is out of the book of Mormon and what you'll be looking at is a legislature more conservative in the coming year than what we've had.

>> That goes to redistricting and with the redistricting commission and Jeremy and I spent how many days and hours down there and so much the commission can do because you're not going to find a lot of Democrats out in Mesa.

You won't find a lot of republicans in phoenix.

This Tuesday election sets the stage, absent somebody so far off the wall we will know who will control and which wing of the party will control the legislature.

>> 35 at best could be considered competitive and most of the wincers winners will be decided on Tuesday and we're looking at the moderate members probably going to be replaced by more conservative members and trump-endorsed in some cases.

>> Ted: Will they be working with a republican or democratic governor?

Let's get to the governor's race and we have a new poll, OH predicted insights and Ka ri lake with a lead over robson.

>> I don't need it's that much and doesn't need to be that much and the earlier in the week one, I was laughing and saying I was ten, 15 points ahead and insights, doing tracking throughout, she has surged in this race and not just her, but Blake masters for senate and abe Hamana.

And they are surging.

>> Ted: And Donald Trump did visit.

>> The meating in Prescott valley, that helped to bring out folks, but these were folks who had the trump endorsement and advertised and you could not get something in your failbox withoutmailbox andeven if it was photoshopped and it was clear who they were appealing to.

So trump will claim victory no matter what and say, look, I'm the king maker and that goes into, what does he do in 2024?

>> Ted: Let's get back to the governor race, 18 points, what do you make of this?

>> Most of the people watching buy lake winning.

We've seen one poll, and not even that had Robinson robson had and 43% apiece.

>> Ted: How did that differ from this poll?

>> You have a lot of auto dialers and a lot of text polls, which neither very shaky methodology and when you look at everything as a whole, and one tied and every other poll has lake up by low double digits and you have to say, OK, the one that hasn't tied, that has to be an outlier.

Lake, that's the first poll we've seen for a year that did not have lake leading.

>> Ted: Which does not belong with the others?

>> I think the other issue is that lake comes in with a flame thrower.

She excites the base as does Donald Trump and they have a reason to come out and you couldn't keep those people from the polls.

Karrin Taylor robson, basically, she's Kari lake without the flame thrower.

She didn't divorce herself from the Maga crowd and say she'll offer a different way and they stand the same on all issues and what was the reason to vote for her other than she's not Kari lake?

>> She spent $18 million, 15 of her own and the five million from Americans for prosperity and if we saturate the airwaves, people will say this is a serious candidate.

There was a poll in November of 2021 that had robson at 1%, literally and we've seen the trend lines there.

Again, you can only do so much with so much money and you actually reach a point -- and I talked to folks this week who said, howie, it didn't matter how much money you spend.

If I don't like your message, it doesn't matter.

>> For her to win, you have to give the more moderate wing of the party and independents a reason to come out and vote.

And she just really hasn't done thorningthat other than to say, I'm not Kari lake.

>> Ted: Obviously the trend is there and we're seeing what's happening.

We know that if Kari lake somehow loses with these polls, saying what they're saying right now, she is never not ever, ever going to admit defeat.

I mean, this could be really interesting if this thing somehow flips.

>> Sure.

We've been hearing her say a couple of weeks now if she loses, it's because of fraud.

There's been cheating and fictional and made up.

Same thing from Donald Trump in 2020 for six months.

If I lose, it's because it was rigged and it's been a lie then and ever since then.

We'll hear this and it was rigged and I was cheated and if she wins, they're trying to cheat.

Will she say, they tried to cheat and it wasn't enough.

>> Ted: What's the point?

The legislature is not in session and not like they could do another audit and I use the term loosely here.

We have the laws in effect of how much of a margin you need for a recount and I'm guessing it won't fall in there.

You have hand counts done automatically.

Now, she obviously will say there was something wrong with the machinery and that's part of the reason she is part of the lawsuit to say, you should count everything by hand.

It doesn't matter.

She can scream all she wants and refuse to concede.

>> Ted: She could win and pull a Donald Trump who thought his inauguration down was undercounted.

This is a quote, already detected some stealing going on, already detected stealing and where?

>> Our reporter went to the campaign twice and couldn't get an answer and asked -- went to Kari lake herself to ask where is the stealing and lake wouldn't answer the question.

It would be irk i r responsible.

None of us want to see that happening and I question whether she has.

>> Ted: She said she would go superfoe have a, radioactive and what does that mean?

>> The whole campaign has been based on anger and us versus them and it's worked.

>> Ted: There are people who take this stuff seriously.

>> We have election officials getting threats.

Steven Richard had to cancel because of threats made and this type of rhetoric is not victimless and what will Kari lake do when she goes supernovo and cause a scene and other people, you know, take that seriously and take drastic actions.

>> In light of what happened on January 6th, 2021 in Washington, it would seem I would expect any responsible candidate to act like an adult and worth noting that Kari lake spoke to a far right group who's leader claimed to have started a militia and this is a group she made comments to.

What is your point and what are you trying to say?

What is it that you want to see happen if by some miracle you should lose?

I would love to hear her answer.

It sounds like far beyond lawsuits.

>> And what we may be talking about is, as you know from last time, you have a certification process that occurs at the end of November and the secretary of state's office, will they get in there?

Will they be showing up at the state capitol on January 3rd, when the inauguration to try to keep that from happening, if again, she loses?

I wouldn't put anything passed her backers.

>> Ted: I want to get what you wrote about this in depth here with robson and despite everything she said and she has called her false and can't trust her to be the next governor.

Her false claims should disqualify her from being governor.

>> She's a liar, a hypocrite, a phony, fraud, fake and if she wins, I'll support her.

>> Ted: What to you make of that?

>> It reminds me of Doug Ducey and some reporter, I think it might have been you, asked the governor, if light of this, do you regret supporting her monetarily under the 2020 election and his answer was, basically, she's better than a Democrat?

>> But what else will she say?

Here she is trying to get the undecided republicans in there.

If she says I'm not going to support her, which would mean she would support the democratic nominee, people won't turn out and she had to choice to say I will support the nominee.

>> Ted: I think she did support it and Kari lake won't support robson.

>> I remember eight years ago, there was an acrimonious primary between Jones and Smith and Jones and Smith after Ducey won, they didn't come out the next day or week and say we endorse Doug Ducey and they did not pledge that immediately and did not give the endorsement immediately.

I would always expect robson to eventually back lake at some point.

Maybe go on stage and say she's fake lake and she's a liar and unqualify.

>> Yes, but this goes beyond the kind of typical -- this election has been beyond the typical animous but I don't say you're a liar and hypocrite and horrible things that go to the central name of who you are and what Karrin Taylor-robson, a liar, a cheat is better than any Democrat and you think that will pick up independent votes for you.

>> Ted: Is that the second basement republican thinking -- we heard Doug Ducey with Wendy Rocheers and this idea party over policy and gung-ho and the trump wing can't stand and is that hurting robson?

>> I think it hurts her and when she went on CNN after all campaign season, was the election stolen?

Well, the election wasn't fair and refer to the media and refer to states that changed the rules at the last minute.

Men sheWhen she was asked on CNN, see wouldn't even acknowledge that Joe Biden won.

You can't have it both ways.

You either have to stake a clear path that said the election was fine and the republican party needs to get on with the conservative values of free trade and low tax or you go into the crazy set.

>> You're touching on what happens next in November and that gets to the question if the party nominee is Kari lake and we have more -- we have an equal number of independents in the state as we do republicans, and there are certain republicans who whatever poll you believe will find Kari lake objectionable as weak as candidate as Hobbs, and I'm presuming she'll win the primary primary.

They'll stay home or take this questionable Democrat over a crazy person?

>> I would expect most republicans, you know, voters and politicians to still line up behind the nominee and I would expect the same thing if you add a similar situation on the democratic side.

They've bought a lot of air time for this year.

Even though lake and Ducey have had hard worded, I don't think he'll leave office handing it over to a Democrat if he'll have anything to say about it.

>> We should have Martha McFalley what she thinks.

She lost two senate seats they sent two seats to to the the senate because moderate republicans either didn't mark anybody at the top of the ticket or they marked Sinema or Kelly, depending which year it was.

I could easily see that happens.

>> She cozied up to trump and was on the stage with trump, chased him on the stage.

Yet, that wasn't enough.

So I don't know.

I'm not willing -- wile some while some of us sat around for the year-ends year-end show and made wild predictions.

I'm not going to say the next governor of Arizona will be republican.

>> This is a different year than 2018 or 2020.

The big republican year, a midterm and a lot of Democrats who came out to vote in 2018 or 2020 and more liberal voters, folks looking at democratic control of the White House and say what has this gotten us.

>> That may depend what's on the plot and youballot.

>> There's lower tuition for dreamers and repealing the changes the republican legislation made in voting and does that bring people out?

I don't know.

If you have the referendum on the ballot over the vouchers, that brings out a certain clue.

These are not trumpites, I don't know.

>> I think Katie Hobbs, if she's doing anything, she's she's studying you on the 2020 election and there's no room for Kari like to come to the center and you can't get there from where she's been and too entrenched on the right.

Hobbs needs to say I'm not a Democrat.

I'm an Arizonan and that's what Mark Kelly did to his benefit.

The path is clear.

She's not a strong character and not a good year for Democrats, but republicans may just have happened them a great opportunity.

>> Ted: We saw the Arizona agenda today reporting that the Hobb's campaign, that you can't organize a two-car funeral and people are jumping off the ship and it's not a good look into the primary.

I think she's the favorite for the primary and once that's over with, it's not a good look.

>> One more thing -- I mean, that's something, fortunately for Hobbs, she would have any problem, and correcting those problems.

There's in the that much time.

>> Ted: A sharpie gate 2.1 and don't bring the ballpoint pens in and the felt pens are there for a reason and conspiracy is out there saying you want to take my vote.

>> Of course.

They said it last time and Richards is saying it again.

The reason we use felt-tip pens there and we they have plenty of time to dry because they dry immediately.

They will read them.

If you use a ballpoint pen where you realize, I have ink on the back, they don't dry and you put that into a machine with glass, you've screwed up the machine and this gets back to the conspiracy, I used the ballpoint pen and that shows the whole dominion system is screwed up.

>> Ted: Yes, but I was told to use a ballpoint pen at home and it has time to dry.

These things get a life of their own.

>> This is the result of 18, 19, 20, 21 months of a lot telling republicans you can't trust election workers and election officials even if they're republicans and you can't trust the systems.

It's going to be very interesting to see what happens if they, in fact, win this next elections.

Should the rest of us say we can't trust?

That was the real result?

Of course people will be suspicious because they've been told for a year and a half to be suspicious of everything.

>> The other part of it saying there's bleed-through and they've proven over and over again and everybody else notwithstanding, and assuming it bleeds through, it doesn't match up on the reverse side of the ballot.

There is to logic in this.

That's part of the reason you have lawsuits playing out in federal court about hand-counting plots andcounting ballots.

>> Ted: Our election show Tuesday night will be sitting on our handing doing nothing, one, two.

That's the election pre-rue preview.

The election attorney was in the news with "New York Times" working to overturn the election election in 2020 about his Emails where he used the term "fake."

In >> In law school, they would not to describe it was fake electors and question the legality and sent this to a trump adviser and put the "fake" electors and make emoji means it's not.

Saying they have no illegal status and try to get this counted.

This is a time when the department of justice has subpoenaed several folks from Arizona and there's a criminal investigation, looking at Donald Trump himself.

I mean, combine this and you think a lawyer would know better than to actually say "fake electors" in an Email.

>> If you've sent a "fake" document to Congress to certify the election, have you committed fraud?

Have you committed forgery, in fact, by doing that?

You can call them "fake," whatever you want.

You have sent a document that you know is not official, not blessed by the state and not blessed by the secretary of the state or governor and I'm surprised we have not seen charges by now.

>> Ted: It seemed like the fake electors is what they're owning inhoningin on.

>> Sending four of the 11 and maybe to all, and the others aren't talking and unclear whether they are witnesses in a case looking more at the Trump Administration or whether they are targets of this thing.

I would like to suggest that, perhaps, our attorney general ought to consider -- >> Wait, wait, wait --.

>> -- to see if there's violations of state laws.

>> Ted: Once Wednesday comes.

>> Based on the polling he loses and nothing to lose, he'll get around to it.

Look, this is a man unavoidable for comment on fox news and not terribly interested in the state election and not particularly interested in anything else other than his battles with thing Biden Administration.

But come Wednesday, if, in fact, he's running third in the polling and maybe he'll decide, I'm going to go out with my head high, maybe, maybe.

>> Ted: We have 30 seconds left and give me a headline for Wednesday.

>> I'm guessing the headline is trump slate largely succeeds.

>> Ted: What do you have?

>> Trump swamps K arcariin taller.

Robson.

>> It's not trump's republican party if Arizona.

>> Ted: There you go.

Panel, thank you and good to have you.

That is it and you have a great weekend.

Later this hour on break it down, efforts to increase the impact of black women in science, technology, engineering and math.