Welcome to Forum 360, I’m Mark Welfley.

Thank you for joining us for our global outlook with a local view.

Do you know what the coldest day on record in Northeast Ohio is?

Take a guess.

Well, according to various sources, on January 20th, 1985, with the wind chill, the temperature in Akron dropped to -56 degrees.

And in case you're wondering, 104 degrees is the hottest temperature recorded in Northeast Ohio in Cleveland on June 25th of 1988.

Weather affects almost everything we do in our lives, so it's not surprising that Northeast Ohio has a fascination with weather and its many legendary weather forecasters.

And I'm sure you can think of at least one.

Well, how are weather forecasts put together?

What makes Northeast Ohio weather unique?

And is technology changing the way weather is forecasted.

For those answers and more, we will turn to my guest today, Katie McGraw, meteorologist with News 5 Cleveland.

And welcome Katie.

- Thank you.

Thank you for having me.

- You’re welcome.

So tell me a little bit about how you came to become a weather meteorologist.

Like, do you start at the age of five and hope to be one of the forecasters in Cleveland, or how does it work?

- So mine started probably like between the ages, like ten and 12.

And it was started out of a fear of thunderstorms.

Thanks to the movie, ‘Twister.’ So the original Twister, the opening scene with the dad, I mean, it terrified me, and I would have dreams about it.

I mean, the sky got a little dark.

I would start to, you know, hunker down and think about it.

And I can still remember being in my basement with the dog and the candles and, like, watching local meteorologists in Cleveland.

And I loved how they were able to make me feel better.

So shortly after that, you know, closer to eighth grade, probably.

I did have a diary that I wrote in, I think like three entries, and it said I was going to be a meteorologist.

And once it was time for me to pick a school and a future, it kind of came back into the lens.

And that's when I decided to major in meteorology at Ohio University.

- And from there, your first job and how ultimately did you wind up at News 5 Cleveland?

- Yeah.

So I was born and raised in Cleveland.

Well, it was a suburb of Cleveland and Wickliffe.

And initially when I decided to do meteorology, I had this preconceived notion that TV meteorologists weren't real meteorologists.

I thought they were just presenters kind of reading whatever it was.

And shortly into learning more about weather in general, but also learning more about broadcast, I learned that that was not the case at all.

Almost all of them have some type of atmospheric background, but most of them have meteorology degrees.

And it was probably my junior year in college, and OU’s known for their broadcast and their journalism school.

And so I decided to just take a stab at it.

They have a program it's PBS, so WOUB.

And I was able to do green screen work, and I just really fell in love with it.

And so after college, I went to Zanesville, Ohio, WHIZ, and there I was a producer anchor, did weather, did everything, just learning more about the TV business because college got me ready for the weather side.

And Zanesville, I would say, was like almost like a paid internship.

And then Erie for two years, Louisville for five, and then I've been back in Cleveland for four years now.

- Right.

So talk to me about Northeast Ohio weather.

Like what makes it unique or different from, you know, other areas of the country?

- Sure.

I mean, snow.

It's always going to be the snow.

And the lake effect that we get here.

And we're used to it, you know.

But when you talk about it like, for example, when I was in Louisville and I would talk about the snowstorms that we would get or even showing because my husband's from, Erie, Pennsylvania.

And I remember that there was, I forget the year, I think it was 2017.

I mean, they got so much snow around Christmas.

And I remember showing the photos of his Jeep and what it looked like in Erie versus Louisville, and people who aren't from here, just like they can't comprehend how much snow we can get.

Plus, I always appreciate as a forecaster and meteorologist that Clevelanders get it when it comes to snow.

That yeah, a couple miles apart, we could be feet difference in snow.

And just because if you're from the area, you're very aware of it.

So I would definitely say Lake Erie, it's our life source, it's amazing that we have that fresh water, but it does make forecasting a good challenge and a bad challenge.

- So I was going to ask you, is, what's the most difficult part of the job of weather forecasting?

Is it the— - I would say the lake effect.

- Every two... - Yeah.

- Every two miles it might be completely different weather.

- Yeah.

It's so finicky.

When I am talking on air about forecasting for lake effect snow, I always say that that lake effect snow is fickle.

And it can... Just a small deviation in a wind direction or a wind speed can result in huge, hugely different numbers, different positions of where the snow is located.

And we always talk about it when you get a forecast wrong.

We call it a bust.

And the one of the biggest bust I ever had was when I was in Erie, Pennsylvania, and it was 2014, November, and we were predicting, I mean, 50, 60 inches of snow.

National news was there, all this stuff.

And the winds never shifted.

So Erie got flurries and Buffalo got like 70 inches.

It was by far the worst forecast we had ever done.

I mean, it was just one of those where the winds just never changed.

So.

- So how has weather forecasting changed over the last, say, ten years?

- Yeah.

I mean, it just continues in my opinion, we continue to get better.

Technology is already in just the last ten, 20 years has already improved.

And our goal ultimately, of course, we always want to be back here at about the high temperature or something like that.

But ultimately our biggest goal is to talk about if there's going to be the threat for severe weather, the threat to life and property.

I was in college, my first meteorology class, meteorology 101.

The first thing I ever wrote down in my notebook was that the number one job of a meteorologist is to protect the people and their property.

And so I definitely try to live by that throughout my entire career of just keeping that in the forefront of everything.

So if there's that threat, making sure that you're giving people that ample information, and then in the day of that eminent threat, being on air, being there for people in that scary moment, like when I was a little kid and terrified of it.

- I will be watching the weather forecast and one of the forecasters will say, well, we got, you know, we saw the weather from, a particular city and maybe an airport.

Another camera has another... from another city has its eye on the weather and I guess cobbled together, a view of what Northeast Ohio or that particular whole area was like.

Is that how it works?

You take different feeds or different reports from different areas and put it together into one forecast?

- Well, yeah.

Absolutely.

So all of our computer models, so a lot of times if we're talking about a system that might be super impactful, but it's all the way out in the Pacific Ocean or something, we needed to get on land in order or over land, I should say over the U.S.

because the second it gets to the West Coast, that's when they'll start sending weather balloons up.

All of that information and data that they get in those weather balloons will then go right into our computer model.

So our computer models get better as the storms get closer.

So using data downstream of us ahead of time is absolutely pivotal.

Watching the radar as it moves towards us, it's invaluable.

- So they'll actually send a weather balloon up?

- Yeah.

So all the National Weather services do it... I think it’s, don't quote me on this.

I think it's like once or twice a day.

But they are sending those weather balloons up and all of that.

There's a little computer in there and that gets into all of our data then.

- How high does it go?

- So it goes all the way up.

I should actually go and launch one because it's all— This is like a test question or something, because I'm not 100% sure exactly the process of them getting that weather balloon up.

I know that a lot of times they don't get the balloons back, but it is all that information that they're getting and it's going pretty, pretty high up.

I believe anywhere between like ten and 30,000ft, it's going pretty high.

I think.

I’ll have to look that one up.

I should actually ask the National Weather Service if I could go watch one day, because it would be super important moment for me to learn.

- It's interesting.

Yeah.

So I have to ask you about AI.

And AI affects, you know, everything we do.

And how about weather?

So is AI enhancing the weather?

How is it going to help or even hurt forecasting in the years to come?

- I don't think it can hurt the forecasting element.

I think that forecasting computer models all of that will improve with AI, I think the big question is, you know, will we become obsolete then?

And I like to argue that you'll always need that human mind, that expertise, that person that grew up in Northeast Ohio to still understand that data and information that we're getting.

But, you know, and I mean, how fast it's changed.

You talk about technology changing.

I mean, AI videos a few years ago, I think the one that they always show was the AI video of Will Smith from like 2 or 3 years ago.

And I mean, it's looks like his face is like melting or something.

And now you see these videos and it's kind of scary how realistic it looks sometimes.

So I think that that's it's a kind of wait and see, I think when it comes to getting better forecast, it's a good thing in terms of maybe other parts, maybe it’s a ittle nerve wracking.

- Is there anything else coming down the pipe in weather forecasting over the next ten years that is, you know, significant, meaningful something you'd like to tell us about?

- You know, not that I'm aware of, but there's so many people who are smarter than me doing all of this intense research, especially I feel like when it comes to hurricane forecasting and that tornado research that I mean, truthfully, like what Twister was, right?

Those storm chasers that are trying to get that on the ground information.

And so I think there's always going to be changes in weather.

I mean, I think back to just the 1950s and how at 1978 there was a tornado outbreak, oh 74, excuse me.

And there was a tornado outbreak across the country.

And it was a devastating event, and it would have been just in this amount of time in that 50 year span, the way in which technology has gotten so much better that if there's going to be a tornado outbreak, we know, like days in advance.

And so that it came without warning thing is becoming less and less.

- Love for weather.

Is the industry of meteorology, is it growing?

Or is it... People want to become weather people?

- Just looking at like my small data pool of even just at Ohio University.

When I graduated, the program was incredibly small.

I think I graduated with seven other METs.

And now I look at their school photos and stuff, and I mean, it has tripled the size of who's going into meteorology.

And I think majority of the time, and I tell this when I do school talks or when kids come to visit and maybe have that proclivity towards weather or interest in it.

And, you know, my little avenue of doing broadcast meteorology is still just one facet of so many other jobs in the country.

You have your researchers, you have your storm chasers, you have a private sectors working for companies, airports, all that kind of stuff.

So I think there's still tons of opportunities for METs, National Weather Service working for NOAA, anything like that.

- If you're just joining us, thank you for listening and for watching.

My name is Mark Welfley and this is Forum 360.

And I am talking today with Katie McGraw, who is News 5 Cleveland's meteorologist.

And we're talking about essentially a day in the life of a weather forecaster or a meteorologist.

- Yeah.

- So continuing on, mentors.

- How important are they?

Did you have one?

How did you use your mentor to make you better than... - I've had a couple.

One that is still very much a presence in my life is— So I did an internship my senior year of college, and I just put out, you know, applications everywhere around Cleveland and stuff.

But I also threw in some in Chicago because my sister lived there at the time.

So I was able to stay with her.

So I through went into WMAQ, which was NBC in Chicago.

And the meteorologist, who was working weekends at the time, reached back to me, and that was Ginger Zee.

And if you're not familiar with Ginger Zee, she is now the chief meteorologist of ABC news.

And talk about somebody that has really made a difference in so many aspects of meteorology, particularly towards women.

Like we're not weather girls.

She really puts that we're just as much of a scientist as the the pretty face that you might see or whatever.

But also talking about climate change, she's really— She's always there on the ground for hurricanes, tornado outbreaks, things like that.

So very boots on the ground.

But bottom line, she wasn't just there for me during that internship.

I mean, I could still text her right now and she'd text me back.

So she's just very much always been there, helpful with making reels to get jobs.

Even I remember calling her once about like, a question I had with meteorology class.

So she's always been super helpful.

And then, you know, just a different all the different jobs that I've worked at, there's also been those mentors as well.

So, it's been I mean, my last chief meteorologist, his name was Mark Weinberg.

He was like an encyclopedia of weather.

And one of my favorite parts of weather is that you're always learning something new.

You can just continue to expand your mind.

And I feel like his is, like, somehow filled with everything.

I ask a question, and he would know so.

And I mean, even the people I work with now, they're also mentors to me as well.

They everyone has their niche and what they're good at and it's helpful to have them around as well.

- I want to talk about actually putting a weather forecast together.

So when you arrive into the station, like, what do you look at, who do you talk to, how you piece at all together so that you know, when you go on it's, it's all ready to go with the clicker.

- Yeah, absolutely.

And I'm glad that, you know, you're aware of the fact that we are doing our own forecasting.

You know, so it's not me reading off the teleprompter.

We actually don't use a teleprompter tt's all ad lib.

And so when I get in, I learned by writing.

So I have like a very intense forecast sheet that I start with looking at the seven day from the person that was there before me.

So when I go into work here in the next hour or two, I'll look at Phil Sakal’s forecast that he had at noon and four, and that's my starting base.

So I just write down what he had for the seven day.

And then I go and I look at all these different computer models.

So there's a couple different ones that are like just my go tos really quick.

So there's one called the H triple R. So that's the high resolution rapid refresh computer model.

Essentially that's when you can't use that one, if you're looking for next Sunday, it's just in the next 48 hours that you can get that information.

And then every hour they'll pump out just like a quick little 14 hour forecast.

Every six hours they give you 48 hours.

And there's different computer models just like that.

So then you go like the to the NAM.

The NAM 3 is another one that takes you 60 hours.

The GFS and the euro take you even farther.

So I'll go through all those computer models.

Just a quick little, what does the future radar look like?

Then I'll focus on the threat for severe weather.

What are the systems looking like?

Is there going to be a warm front cold front?

Is there a trough?

Just look at getting a general idea about the trends over the next week, or sometimes even farther.

And then you'll get more into the nitty gritty of tweaking the temperatures.

Do I think it's going to be 84 or is it going to be 87, you know, things like that and that.

So usually a little bit later down the line.

But we'll also because we're on broadcast and I think a big part of a broadcast meteorologist job is to try to relate to everybody.

Whether you have kids, whether you dont, whether you have a dog, whether you don't, whether you are a gardener or not, you know, so trying to think outside the box everyday of how to tell the forecast.

So that includes boating forecasts.

If you want to get your car washed.

I try to think of all those things and switch it up throughout the day.

And then also with forecasting, it's not just like one and done.

So I'll forecast when I first get to work.

An hour is like the perfect amount of time to forecast.

Sometimes this doesn't happen, but and then I'll go back because, lately I've been doing the 3:30 to 11:30 p.m.

shift.

So then after the 7 p.m., all new data is starting to come in around like 9:00.

So I'll re forecast and just check and see is one of these computer models acting silly or anything like that.

- Have you been in a situation where you've had to really make a difficult decision, you know, four feet on the ground or sunny and you just went back and forth and say, I just don't know.

Or, are all your models kind of clear enough that you're going to be within a tolerance that's, you know, largely acceptable, whether it's temperature or snowfall.

- No.

There's definitely almost like weekly we have to make those decisions of what we think it will be.

And it becomes more imperative when we're talking about severe weather, as I mentioned, when we're talking about that snow.

I really try to be real with viewers.

This is what we know.

This is what we don't know.

If I'm feeling unconfident the day of an event, I'll say it as much as I don't want to do that, I want to be like, this is exactly what's going to happen.

But I also feel people can understand that, like it's meteorology, it's not a perfect science, and it's actually like job security that it's not honestly.

But that's then the next time we'll use an event and be like, how did it play out?

You know, a year ago when we had a really similar scenario and stuff like that.

And so but yeah, I would say more often than not and that's truthfully like the meteorologist job, like the data can be killer for like a month and then you'll have another month where none of them are in agreement.

And you have to use your own judgment calls, your own history of what you know about the area.

And sometimes there is like a little bit of an intuition factor of like, a little witchy or something.

- Sure.

So a couple of weeks ago, we watched you start at 6:00 and narrate, give an overview of the hurricane— I'm sorry, a tornado that was rolling through Brimfield, that area.

And, so my question is, is that a difficult part of the job when you realize you're going to have to be on the air continue to fill an hour's worth of time with, you know, meaningful information.

Perhaps you have a voice in your ear.

Perhaps it’s another meteorologists telling you, here's an update, here's what we think is going to happen.

Is that is that a difficult challenge?

- Yeah.

So that was something that I really honed in my skills when I was in Louisville.

I was not great at it, and the best advice I ever got was from another meteorologist, Rick DeLuca, and he basically told me, just like when I'm forecasting or looking at the radar, and I'm just sitting there thinking like you're essentially just thinking out loud.

And so you're just, you know, what you're saying, and so you just explain it.

And so I would say it is an intense moment for sure.

You just let the weather tell the story really, and I'll... You were able to see my process a little bit of like I'll hone in on wherever a tornado warning is, but usually in our neck of the woods will get like a squall line.

And along there you get these little notches and multiple rotators.

So it's important to go up and down that line.

Plus, people are watching you and wondering like, well, what about me?

You know, where am I safe?

So trying to show and sometimes you'll see then oh, there's another area of rotation.

So I would say that they can be challenging days.

But again it's like why I got into it.

And I think our most important because even people who don't watch the news, they're like, well, I have to say I don't watch the news.

They will tune in when there's a tornado warning at their house.

- So if someone calls the station and says, we sighted a tornado, will you already have known about that through radar, or could it be new news to you?

- It could be new news, because a lot of times we're first getting a warning or we're watching something and it's radar indicated.

So the second that you get, especially if it's a report from, say, like a police officer or emergency management person or you're just getting tons of an influx of videos or pictures that are undeniable, then it becomes a confirmed tornado.

Which is a difference in terms of this is now not just the possibility there is a tornado on the ground.

So we even have a different tag on the warning.

It flashes a different color, and it's all because now we have eyes that this isn't just floating in the sky, it's down on the ground.

- I asked you a little bit about, the job interview and what it's like to, and you talked about reels and... Is there ever been a time when you've been really nervous in front of the camera for whatever reason, going back to your first day in front of a green screen.

So what makes you nervous about?

- Well, I’m not super nervous anymore.

It's definitely gotten more comfortable.

And like, the camera is kind of like my safe zone, you know?

And I think that's one of the things.

And I mean, you understand it, that you don't have a bunch of eyeballs blinking back at you.

It's kind of like you feel like you're playing sometimes with your friends, like we're playing news.

Because you take it seriously, but at the same time, it's different when you have that like live audience feature.

But yeah, I mean, when I started, just the live element of it terrified me.

I mean, my hands would shake and all of that, and I wasn't very good when I started.

I was telling you before we started that people will come to the station, say, oh, you're such a natural.

Like, no, I've been in this for 12 plus years.

Like, this is a lot of effort, but I promise you, it was not something that came super easy.

It's just honestly, it was one of those of like, practice makes perfect.

I had to just keep doing it.

- Sure.

At the end of the day.

11:30 these times.

Are you tired?

Like do you exhale?

What do you do when you're finally off the air.

- It depends like truthfully the different schedule that you're on.

And so when I first started doing live TV, I mean I would be so, had this like natural high natural adrenaline that happened because of like being live on TV.

And you still have that a little bit because you have to have that energy and you're there for people.

You want them to be listening to what you're saying.

So you definitely are up and it takes a little bit to come down.

But I can usually lately fall asleep by like 1 a.m.. So that's after my drive home.

So it's definitely still early, but all the different shifts and weather are kind of wild.

- Are you replaying things that you said in your head?

- Sometimes.

- Do they say that right?

Is it really 85 days?

- Yeah.

That's something that took me a long time that like if I had a bad hit, say right at the start of the show and I couldn't get my words out right for whatever reason.

I used to let it really kind of stick with me and it would continue then.

I would just have a bad day.

Now, if I have a bad hit, I'll joke about it with the anchors in the commercial break.

Like, what was that?

And just kind of move on because it can happen.

You can be awkward.

You can say things that you don't mean, or like you get into a hole and you can't dig yourself out.

Usually I can get myself out of it when I'm like, what am I talking about?

Like, let's pull out.

But yeah, I think that thankfully it's like if I do something awkward, it's only like one hit and not a whole day.

- Sure, going back to the tornado report that you did for that hour.

One of the things you did during that report is you actually sat down.

And I thought that was really... It was different, obviously, but it was really helpful to me because mentally it told me that this is going to be a while.

We’re not just going to stand up for two minutes and talk about— I mean, sit down.

This front is moving through and you know, you're talking about redlining and it's moving through.

And I thought when you sat down, I think to the audience, if me for sure.

But perhaps others that was a relief.

Say, okay, we're going to be at this.

Kate’s got it under control let’s, you know, let’s figure that out.

- I'm glad.

- But I don't think I've ever seen a weather person sit down.

- So I am, full disclosure, I am five months pregnant, so that's part of it.

And so I, definitely those— That day in particular, I mean, it was basically from honestly even earlier in the day I was checking models.

I mean, there were severe weather days.

It's all full, encompassing event.

And so when you're talking nonstop for 45 minutes and when you're alone, when you have the tag team coverage, it was something I kind of didn't mention when you had asked me the question about doing those kind of cut ins.

When you have another MET with you, it does alleviate the pressure that you're under.

Because it's just two brains, two opinions, you both have the expertise you can ask each other, like, what do you think about this or stuff like that?

So when you're alone and it’s all eyes are on you, it can be a little... But I do still love it.

It's like our Super Bowl honestly.

- In the 10 seconds or so, can you give me one piece of advice that you would like for all of the viewers and listeners to to know about weather?

- Yeah, I think that it isn't a perfect science.

So I gave the compliment to Clevelanders, but, just always be patient with us and I will always own it when I'm wrong.

And I'll try to tell you as much as I do or do not know.

- Great.

Thank you very much.

When I lived in California, my mom would call me on a perfect fall or spring day and say, Northeast Ohio has the best seasons.

And she was right.

It's part of the reason I moved back here several years ago.

Our weather is part of who we are.

There are lots of quotes about weather.

Scottish comedian Billy Connolly said, there's no such thing as bad weather, only the wrong clothes.

Or one of my favorites, I have seen many storms in life and most were just passing through.

I would like to thank Katie McGraw from News 5 Cleveland for passing through today.

And sharing some of your wisdom and thoughts on weather.

And invite each of you to keep your eyes, ears and minds open.

Until next time on Forum 360.

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