Welcome to Party Politics, where we prepare you for your next political conversation.

I'm Jeronimo Cortina, political science professor at the University of Houston.

And I'm Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor also here at the University of Houston.

Thanks for hanging out with us and talk a little politics on party politics, kind of exciting week.

Lots of big geopolitical stories.

Lots of big stories.

It will definitely have an effect on the 2024 election.

And the big news, at least here locally, is that John Whitmire has hit his 100 day mark, which is not something we traditionally think about for like a city executive, but for national executives we think about 100 day window.

So our question is, you know, along the lines of what Ed Koch, the former mayor of New York, used to say, how do we doin'?

Yeah, So we'll talk about that in a second.

But let's first get to these big issues that are national and really international and origin.

And they have to do with the ongoing crisis in the Middle East.

President Biden this week spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for the first time after the end of the Israel Israeli strike had killed seven humanitarian workers in Gaza.

Basically, the message from the president to the prime minister was that U.S. support in the future was going to be dependent on aid to Gaza, at least some sort of sense of the relationship was going to be open to protecting civilians and humanitarian workers.

He was very clear about this.

He's definitely losing his patience.

Yeah, and I think part of the problem is that, of course, politically he's in a real tough spot here.

But Netanyahu is also in a tough spot.

He's got to protect the right flank.

Who wants to see action on this, which there's no question that he should.

And it's been kind of a political thicket for both of them.

So what do you make of this sort of new normal really for the U.S. and Israel?

Well, I think that the White House, especially the President Biden, has changed their tone.

Right.

And their tone is now more emerging in the Obama administration.

When and where was Bush?

I know I think it was Bush in terms of let's draw a line in the sand.

So I think that he has drawn the line in the sand.

And now, you know, they're getting closer to that line.

Yeah.

So I think the change of tone is very important in interview with Univision, Biden said, like he thinks that the strategy is wrong and that he does not support it.

So I think that the change has come and we have seen, for example, now that, you know, there has been more aid going into Gaza, there is a proposal for a six week cease fire release of prisoners, exchange of prisoners, and obviously those that were hostages and are still under control of Hamas.

The Biden administration said like, yeah, we're all eyes will give you military equipment and so on aid or whatever it is.

However.

Yeah, but you have to hit.

These Mark Exactly.

And if they don't hit those marks, I think that now the Biden administration, given the domestic political issue, is going to say, you know what, buddy?

You like kind of walk away.

Yeah, which.

Would be stunning, actually.

A real reversal in terms of where the U.S. has been and definitely a point of contention for Republicans who are really on the attack on the Biden administration, saying that they're not supporting Israel enough, who's been a long standing advocate, an ally for the U.S.

So that's interesting.

But Israel is increasingly becoming isolated in the world.

And part of it is this sort of narrative that's taken hold about the left who want to see more protections.

I think that this will probably work.

I mean, I do think that the president here is going to potential to be able to kind of sort of settle this situation, at least enough that he can claim that he's able to have neutralized some of the serious problems.

But obviously, as things happen on the ground, there's going to be these sorts of moments that are going to test this.

So it's definitely complicated and the Democrats remain divided about what to do.

And if that continues through the election, then I think you're still going to see that tension.

Republicans are doing them any favors either.

Right.

They're twisting the knife here, presenting resolutions that basically denounce efforts to place a one sided pressure on Israel.

And so they'd like to see kind of a more holistic approach.

And yeah, that's a bit a problem.

I don't think it is something that, you know, Biden doesn't have to worry too much about Democrats in Congress, right?

He needs to worry about those potential voters in the 2024 election.

And even though that there has been these non or a vote of, quote unquote, no confidence in some of these primaries, nothing too alarming or anything like that.

But if everything this presidential election is going to be close, so in very important states as well.

So every.

Vote, every vote.

Every vote matters.

And that's why I would think.

Trademark that like I like that if everybody use it, they understand.

You.

Yeah yeah.

Royalty's royalty have been more my Yeah, yeah.

What's your event.

Yeah.

But I think you're right.

Like you definitely have to have kind of stability here and unity going into 2024, but I think they'll get that.

In fact, Pew's polling this week has come out that basically looks at these longitudinal trends over 20 years.

Right.

Support for the parties from various groups.

You don't see a lot of changes.

So although the headlines are going to say like, Latino vote shifting and, you know, black tech, you know, black Texans or black voters aren't really following the Democratic Party, like it's probably wrong.

Yeah, there are historical.

And we have made that argument 11,000 times.

But you know, you know what?

We'll see.

Let's keep making it until.

Until it catches up.

Until it catches.

Until That's the headline.

Right.

But look, the Democrats aren't the only party that's going to have to deal with internal divisions.

Obviously, Republicans Republicans, too.

This week, Donald Trump, after sidestepping the issue directly of abortion for months, has come out with his kind of approach, let's say plan.

But really, it's a kind of Swiss cheese policy.

Here's what it is.

Basically, what he says is that he takes credit for ending Roe versus Wade and he takes credit because he appointed the justices that are really the swing votes.

But he also says that this should be a state issue.

And so along the lines of what the Dobbs decision says, he suggests that basically states should make their own choices.

Right.

That is what we call in this business a non-answer.

Okay.

And it's probably a policy that's likely to really fall flat among everybody, right?

Everybody's mad because the people who are on the far right want a much more foreign policy.

The Senate had considered pursuing legislation on a 15 week ban.

Right.

That's getting consensus.

Probably wouldn't pass the Senate right now.

But, you know, obviously, the election's going to come and you're going to see some changes potentially.

So that's in the cards.

But now kind of off the table, assuming that Trump consistently kind of holds his position.

So what do you make of Trump's position and the way that's going to affect the 2024 election?

it's going to affect it right.

It has to, Right?

I mean, we have seen in many states that abortion has been the key issue given victories where you would not expect to see Democrats win.

Yeah.

So I think that that's a pivotal moment and, you know, very risky decision.

Right.

Because at the end, as you say, Swiss cheese.

Yeah.

Like the right is not happy.

Mike Pence came out and say this is a slap in the face.

So the evangelicals, conservatives see it as a no go.

Yeah.

They'll still push for it regardless.

Exactly right.

And then you see obviously Democrats are the more liberal saying no way.

So you just basically ones man.

Yeah like yeah all it really has done is kind of prolong the politics of it.

It didn't really settle it and I'm not sure what would settle it, at least in terms of, you know, even just the Republican Party.

But for sure, it's the case that they're worried about this.

So the fact that everyone kind of had to come out and make a statement about this definitely shows that.

But I also think that it's clear that the far right has no place else to go.

Right.

Who else are they going to vote for?

Are they just I mean, maybe they don't vote, but it's not like they're going to vote for Joe Biden.

So those limitations really do show how much partizanship matters.

Yeah.

Where now people are kind of hemmed in terms of this policy and don't really have any place to go.

So that's going to be interesting.

And obviously Donald Trump is going to have to kind of sort of sort of sort this out.

Right.

It's clear that that his approach, which allows for some exceptions, sort of all around Reagan, as he said, isn't what Texas is doing.

Right.

And also is what Arizona is doing right.

So Arizona actually literally like days after the president for president made a speech, came out with a Supreme Court ban at the state level that upheld 160 year old law that bans abortion in all cases.

This also created a firestorm in Arizona, where we're going to have a very competitive Senate race.

Carrie Lake, who's the Republican nominee, came out and said she oppose the Supreme Court ruling.

Okay.

She, though in the past had actually embraced it.

So she's going to have to do some explaining there.

John Kerry, you know, like waiting for that flip flop.

That's right.

I love that.

Yeah.

This the wind sail flips, something like that actually would really Well, you know, it's so yeah.

But I think as you're implying here, the advertising on this is going to be really key right.

How you spend this.

But to me this means potentially that abortion is going to overtake immigration as a big issue, certainly in Arizona, which is in some sense a bellwether for a lot of Western states and other swing states.

Yeah, I definitely think so.

You know, it's the Democrats are trying to put, especially in Arizona, about proposition to make abortion a constitutional right that the right to an abortion before 24 weeks and there is traction.

Right.

And again, abortion is an important issue because it polarizes the voting blocks in such a way.

Right.

And here you're talking about, for example, suburban women that in, you know, one way or the other may have been thinking, well, I'm going to vote for Trump or Biden.

You know, when you introduce, for example, immigration, right.

But now that abortion is here, I think it's clear in terms of what they might do as they have done, for example, they did in 2018 and 2020.

So it's another good way of dividing the electorate, especially suburban women that once again are going to be in my humble and uneducated opinion, are going to be, you know, the voting bloc that is going to have a significant decision power in 2024.

I think you're right.

Yeah.

And, you know, I don't have an Ivy League education like you do, but I also I agree with you.

I mean.

Most because you're queuing me.

Yes, but for sure, it's the case that I think that you're fundamentally right, that this is going to be an election of margins.

And so the abortion decision definitely appeals of suburban women, but also kind of educated males in these suburban swing counties.

You also have younger voters or younger Democratic voters who are very enthusiastic about this issue.

And so those are the kind of things that really do juice up support.

And that's what Joe Biden needs and frankly, what all of these candidates in the lower levels, lower down ballot races are going to need.

But speaking of down ballot races, most people don't talk a lot about city politics, but it's so much of how we live our lives that it's critical.

So John Whitmire hit his 100 day mark as the mayor of Houston.

Let's talk about that.

This is party politics.

I'm Brandon.

This is Jeronimo.

We live in the city of Houston.

We have a mayor for 100 days.

How's he doing?

Give me the updates.

Well, highs and lows.

I mean, I think it's an interesting, you know, starter for his administration, right.

When you look, for example, just at the local bureaucracy, seven out of ten heads of departments have been replaced one way or another, new hires that's, you know, normally very common.

When you have a new administration, you want to create your team.

So seven out of ten are now starting a new administration with Mayor Whitmire.

You have also have obviously the now run $1.5 billion solution for the firefighters.

That was a campaign promise, you know, during the first 100 days has fiscal implications, especially these judgment bonds that are something that it's odd in terms when you think in in in municipal finance literature.

But you know, we'll see what happens.

If it works.

Yeah.

And then you have, you know, changing more than 100,000 water meters.

Yes.

You have also some controversies in terms of medians here and there and of course, increasing property taxes.

That starts up about, you know, 15 bucks or something like that.

Right.

Because we need money.

The city needs money, as you say.

I think that there are some wins here and some essential like kind of sticky points.

I feel like he's still getting his feet set right.

He's gone from being kind of one of 31 members in a chamber that's dominated by the opposition party to being really in charge of an entire city.

And with the capacity to be able to more or less do as he wishes.

That's a tough kind of balance to make.

Yeah.

So I feel like he's still kind of getting his feet set, but we have seen hints that maybe he doesn't mind being the boss.

Right.

So that in addition to sort of, you know, really be kind of sort of strong negotiation over the firefighters issue, that council complained didn't have much say and there's going to be some serious financial ramifications to that.

So we'll see how that plays out.

The city currently has about about $428 million in reserves, about 241 million more than they have to maintain.

There's a projected deficit of $160 million next year.

But that's even before the firefighters deal, which I have to kind of figure out details on.

So how is this going to get paid for?

Like you say, probably taxes.

That's a tough ask right here.

You've got a kind of mayor who ran as a Democrat, but a moderate and Republicans flocked by in droves.

And now he's going to raise taxes.

That might be a challenge, I think, for reelection.

But the issue here is that it's so early.

And if the city's fiscal house is in order so that they can make some of these big moves they want to make down the road and actually invest in things like crime and infrastructure that he promised that might actually solve the problem.

So this had to be solved first.

yeah.

I think that that's probably the only way to go about Right.

And, you know, it's going to be a combination.

But I think he's going to be hiking in in taxes, right.

Because running the street, for example, you know, a trash collection fee.

Yeah, it's necessary.

I mean, it's a service.

Yeah.

And yes, it costs money.

So he's going to be I think on the one hand, you know, taxes or fees, right, then judgment, bonds and then a location campaign.

And there is where Whitmire will have to take the lead.

Yeah, I think he has been leading the city It's a completely different leadership style than than the former mayor had before, but It's a leadership style.

I.

Think.

And I think it's fine.

Yeah, it's fine.

It's fine.

Everything's fine.

I think he's growing into the role that the mayors have in Houston, which is that I want to have consensus.

I want to hear what you have to say, but I also need to be in charge.

And we saw this a little bit, just a spark of this with the prop aid discussion like last week in council.

Yeah, they had a discussion about what a certain kind of legislation would do.

They would in this case, the kind of controversy was whether it should go to the Prop eight committee, which is sort of the committee that that the policies that are brought up by the members, the chamber council members would go to, you know, there was some sort of back and forth about what really should happen, how Whitmire says we don't need that because you can just come to me and I'll help you put on the agenda.

But the council members feel like because Prop eight allows them to do it, that they should be able to do it.

So we're seeing a little hint here and there of that kind of emergent sort of leadership style of John Whitmire.

But overall, I do think he's been much more consensual than the Turner in general.

Right.

Obviously, it's the case that this is still evolving.

And he's also run afoul of some folks who want to advocate for more pedestrian in bicycle traffic.

Right.

Right.

You know, there is this sort of controversy about him sort of rolling back the Vision Zero initiative.

He came out and said with some damage control that, you know, he's just got a different way of thinking about this.

I don't think it's like a repudiation of that.

We're not going to just shut that down.

But it's also the case that maybe there are some people who are going to be unhappy about the way he goes about it.

Maybe he ultimately isn't right.

And as you say, you know, getting his feet wet, you know, this is a normal trend that all the cities around the world are going.

It's been 100 days.

Right?

So we have, you know, a very important trend called the 15 minute city, right.

And that means that you can walk to any destination within a city, within a 15 minute walk.

Interesting.

So that is evolving, right?

It's a trend, obviously, in in cities are not already fully grown like cities like City of Houston because it's more complicated.

But you can have certain, you know, policies that would direct one way or the other.

So I think that, you know, consensus is going to be extremely important because remember, now council members can have stuff in the agenda if they want to.

Right?

They just need a couple of people to say, yeah, we're going to put this thing.

So the balance of power is going to be very interesting in terms of getting these things done and again, he's you know, he has, at least in terms of ideology, a quote unquote, friendly city council, Right?

Yeah.

But still, yeah, obviously Mayor Whitmire when he was a state senator was not enough.

100% friendly environment.

Right.

Right.

Well, you can be friendly and you can be accommodating.

But it's also have to.

Take the leadership.

That's why you're the mayor.

Yeah, absolutely.

So that bond powers give him that options.

Yeah, I think we'll see more of that.

But how much that irks the council members, we'll see how much they want to push back.

We'll see.

The dynamics are slightly different than they were during Mayor Turner's.

yeah.

So there may be more friction, but you know, it's still an ongoing process.

So he's great.

I give him an in progress like, Yeah, okay.

Yeah, it's a good draft.

Good.

Good draft.

Okay.

All right.

So I like a good draft.

Yeah.

So sets the stage for.

Yeah, let's, you know, publish here and there some parts and we'll see in the next hundred days.

Well, let's talk about Texas because obviously there's a lot going on here at the state level.

And obviously Texas is where we put the partizan and partizan elections.

Yes.

This is week's Supreme Court Justice John Devine is facing some questions about his impartiality after a viral clip emerged that he implied the Democrats would basically cheat in the 2024 election to win.

He also implied that some of the challenges to Texas abortion laws are a mockery of God and invoked a kind of apocryphal language when discussing Democrats.

This was obviously met with a rebuke from several different parties, including Christian Menefee, the Harris County attorney.

We also know that there is an effort afoot at the state level to basically try to challenge some of these sitting justices and really putting the kind of partizan politics into this story.

The Find Out PAC is targeting Jimmy Blacklock, John Devine and Jane Bland, who have been outspoken on issues of abortion and there could be some money involved in that.

So what do you make of the kind of partizan attacks and the kind of politicization of the judiciary?

Yeah, of course.

Yeah.

I mean, what.

Else is new?

Yeah.

I mean, Andy Barnes position is, you know, he came out of a, you know, very close primary challenge, but he barely survived.

And now the general election, he's going to be facing someone that is not just, I'm a lawyer, I'm going to jump into it.

He's going to face state District Court Judge Christine Van Weems, that is a Democrat that already have the you know, judge judiciary credentials.

So that's going to be interesting.

But obviously, you know, he's taking those positions in terms of, okay, now I have these challenge from the right.

Now I have to go to the override and say stuff.

Right.

And the bad thing I think, is that these things really hurt.

The image of justice right?

Right.

That supposed to be blind.

So when you do these type of comments, you can think about whatever you want to think, but you know, no.

Yeah.

When you're being a judge, you have to be 100% impartial.

So when you're saying this kind of stuff it's like, yeah, I don't know.

No, it does definitely put a kind of wrinkle into the notion that we should have impartiality here.

And there's a code of conduct for judges that they have to follow.

You know, did he cross or not?

That's the question that that could have, you know, the judicial commission is going to have to address.

Right, if at all.

But it is something that we worry about because as these elections become more partizan.

So the fact that this PAC, this find out PAC exists means that we're going to see more of these things.

yeah, they're at all successful.

We're definitely going to see more of it.

And that means that we're going to have more partizan elections and there is going to be more partizanship.

So we have to kind of be conscious of that.

Speaking of the courts, Harris County is in the news again, along with Ken Paxton, who we've talked about a bunch the last couple of weeks.

The attorney General's office has sued Harris County over its guaranteed income program, which they allege violates the Texas Constitution.

The program, called Uplift.

Harris is a guaranteed income program pilot that basically gives 500 dollar payments to low income resident who who who qualify.

They have to meet certain kind of restrictions to qualify.

Obviously, this has become quite the kind of political hot potato, the money that is to be used here are ARPA funds.

So this is basically COVID relief money.

So it's not technically money from the state.

Yeah, but even if it was money from the state, there is significant case law that says that there are criteria that local municipalities can use in terms of expanding and spending this money.

So as long as the money is used for a public purpose and has some reasonable relationship to some other public good, and there's some kind of a return on investment, then it's all legal.

But courts are going to have to figure out whether or not this applies.

And Ken Paxton's hoping for a very narrow ruling here, especially on the question about, you know, kind of what constitutes a return on investment.

Is it enough of a return on investment that people are better off?

I don't know.

That's what the courts have to decide.

Well, yes.

And the other very important question that could have significant implications, right, is in order to have stands in a court, you know, you have to find, you know, what they said their best court strikes.

So if we're talking about federal money right.

Whether it's distributed one way or the other, the substance.

Right.

Of that money is not regulated by the Texas Constitution because that's not Texas money.

Yeah.

So the question is, if the courts say yes and eventually this is going to go up as usual by the courts at the federal level says, yeah, Texas State, then that opens Pandora's box for any state, right?

Yeah.

To say how the federal government is going to distribute their money and how they're going to do these grants or not, etc., etc., etc..

So that for me is it's even more, more, more important.

Yeah, it's a good point.

And honestly, yeah, this to me, the bigger picture is that this is a sort of new front on this.

yeah.

On local government, right.

Yeah.

And so we're likely to see this play out in a bunch of different ways, right.

Because if it's the case that this kind of giveaway is seen to be against the Texas Constitution, then it may trim back other kinds of efforts that other municipalities might try to do, like paid sick leave.

Right.

What's a giveaway in the context of, yeah, to kind of facilitate some, you know, kind of help for people locally.

So lots of big questions here.

And we'll see how Harris County kind of plays this out.

The last thing we'll talk about this week is the ongoing kind of controversy about the Texas House speaker's race.

This is not to say anything about the U.S. House speaker's race, which could be in chaos at any moment, even as we do this.

Maybe they are.

But in the speaker's race here in Texas, in an open letter titled The Contract with Texas, 23 Republicans have signed on to this idea that their list of demands that they expect the next speaker to follow.

So, for instance, they include not appointing any Democrats as committee heads to only contact calls to support the speaker's role from Republican members and a host of other things.

This is really, to me, a kind of clear signal that Dade Phelan is definitely taking arrows from all directions.

And there's a lot of people willing to defy him here, mostly people who are running, you know, in primaries.

But you're going to talk about probably a glut now of, say, 20 or so people who are willing to defy speaker Phelan if it's the case that he's reelected and the reelected speaker.

Yeah, no, absolutely.

And you know, that's in addition from the Club of Growth.

Wow.

That is that's like about $1 million to get you know, against Phelan and they just need a very significant bind the Bowman media market so.

And the ad looks really good honestly like it's pretty persuasive so yeah that plus $2 million for DFW area reps who are also Phelan folks who are in runoffs and another 650 for John Campbell and Gary Vandiver, there are a lot of people who are going to be in jeopardy here.

So it still we have the runoff in May, still time to, you know, to parse things out and for failing to regroup or not regroup and for the other side to attack and re attack one way or the other.

But that's going to be something that we're going to analyze in our next episodes.

I'm Jeronimo Cortina.

And I'm Brandon Rottinghaus.

We'll see you next week.