Welcome to party politics, where we prepare you for your next political conversation.

I'm Jeronimo Cortina, a political science professor at the University of Houston.

And I'm Brandon Rottinghaus, also a political science professor here at the University of Houston.

Thanks for hanging out with us.

An absorbing just a ton of politics.

It's like standing under a waterfall and trying to get a sip.

It's impossible.

There's so much going on.

The big news, obviously, is the Texas primary has come and that was stunning.

We saw some upsets that we didn't expect.

We saw a revenge tour, pretty successful from Governor Abbott and from Attorney General Paxton.

So we're going to get into all.

Night.

Draws.

Yeah, literally like we are out.

And though we'll, of course, have a ledge session which will see how effective all that politicking and all that money.

Not so fast.

So yeah, we still have a general election and I have some couple of theories there.

Okay.

Yeah.

Intriguing.

Okay.

Good theories are always good.

That's how we know if we're right or wrong.

Exactly.

Yeah.

Well, before we start into that, let's talk about Nikki Haley, Right?

Who is the only competition for Donald Trump for the Republican nomination?

And she announced this week she dropped out.

Are you surprised it took this long?

Actually, I.

Mean, I mean, talk about this for weeks.

Yeah.

It's not surprising to see her an extent.

But I think that obviously there's a couple of messages here.

Well, there was no clear, you know, endorsement.

One for Donald Trump.

For Donald Trump.

Two, she was a little bit more conciliatory in terms of, you know, we have to get together, etc., etc..

So something might be cooking.

Pulled some punches, right?

Yeah, But.

You know, like not really punches, just some jabs, but, you know, whatever.

Yeah.

And the most important thing to me is that she highlighted that the Republican Party's divided and that should be something very important for the Republican Party, especially because the primary electorate is not the general electorate.

Yeah.

And that can have very important implications for how it goes to the general election.

Yeah.

So to me, that was the most important thing.

Donald Trump has been winning primary contests and caucuses left and right, but he's winning.

Spread is not 95% like Joe Biden's right and that is an indication is like some problems.

Yeah, there's some problems.

And Joe Biden has problems too.

But you know, of course, this is likely a matchup that we've seen before, right?

Yeah.

So effectively, it's you know, going to be like, Lakers Celtics again.

And I think, you know, people aren't that enthusiastic about it.

And the turnout, frankly, reflects that.

But I think you're exactly right.

Like you're seeing a real divergence in terms of sort of how successful these candidates are with certain parts of the party.

And so she's winning women, she's winning college educated voters, but he's winning the kind of white working class and that divide is really important because, as you say, if you extrapolate this on to a general electorate, it's going to be a very different map.

So that's really where the fight is going to be and her dropping out at this point and leaving things kind of open suggests that maybe the party does have some room to roam here, but the Democrats are facing the same problem.

So the good news for Donald Trump, at least, is that the Supreme Court has said that he can be on the ballot.

Yes.

And so one one sort of in effect this week, as we said, that basically in a unanimous decision, the chief of the Supreme Court has ruled that the former president cannot be kicked off the primary ballot in Colorado.

They unanimously, as I said, agreed to this.

And I want to emphasize again that it was unanimous, which is good.

They were logic was basically that we can't have this kind of patchwork effect where some states are kicking them off the ballot for the insurrection issue and some were not.

And they're very clear that Congress has to have a kind of singular voice on this.

Do you think that this has any kind of ramifications for the politics of 2024?

yeah, absolutely.

I think that well, I mean, the Supreme Court still needs to decide on January six to see if the case can move forward or if the person has absolute and blank slates immunity.

Yes, right.

And that one is a toughie.

Which sets a much different precedent for future presidents not running for office, but in like a serving in office.

Right.

And then after that.

So, I mean, that one is more complicated, cannot say, well, we cannot have these patchwork in one state saying yes and then another state saying no.

I mean, he's not going to be that easy.

No.

And there I think we're going to see, you know, some internal disputes within the Supreme Court.

So we'll see.

And obviously, these will have very, very, very important ramifications for the November election.

Yeah, And they're very clear the Congress needs to set these rules.

And I think that's probably the safest thing to do.

But it's a little confusing, right, Because they say basically that they can't enforce Article three or they can't enforce Section three, but they can enforce Article two.

Say, for instance, if you weren't of age to write for president, it's a little bit of a confusing message.

So they're very clear that they didn't want states to disqualify the president.

And they didn't want to meddle into a matter that is 1,000% political.

And this is your this is your big point.

Yeah.

They don't want to get involved in this because.

I think things would not things right.

Right, there not even saying thanks, they Would you like cream in your coffee?

No.

Beer?

No.

I mean, and the other point is, you know, especially when it's going to come up in the next couple of months is also a matter that it may be.

It's you know, when you're thinking about Trump's argument in this case is about issues, whether, you know, even the Congress impeach the president.

And then if that president is convicted, then, you know, you whatever, Right.

You can move forward and and say that that immunity.

So the problem that I see here and mark my word is that he's going to be conflated with impeachment as it was a legal procedure.

Yes, an impeachment is a political, you know.

Yeah.

And now we can call it, I think, a political show for sure.

And now it's going to be complete and the Supreme Court is going to be like, my God, why am.

Yeah, we were like.

I don't want to make this like someone else is going to make it.

I don't want to be involved in this situation.

Yeah, but it's a stress test for the system and yeah, you know, we've had this the last few years and maybe we're used to it and maybe it's good, right?

The stronger these kind of joints are made, the more likely they can withstand some of this worse, because this won't be the last time these questions come up.

Let's talk about the Senate.

There are a couple of big developments this week.

The first was that Kyrsten Sinema, the senator from Arizona, has decided she's not running for reelection.

She toyed with running as an independent.

That's hard to do anyway, especially in Arizona.

Now it looks like you'll have a kind of traditional Republican Democrat match up there in Arizona.

The Republican candidate has run before.

She's very conservative, very kind of Trump type candidate.

And on the Democratic side, they've got a more progressive version of Kyrsten Sinema.

So the hollowed out middle is pretty apparent here, right?

You've got Mitt Romney leaving, you've got Joe Manchin leaving now, Chris.

And Sonoma, they were the cornerstone of like the bipartisan infrastructure bill, chips bill, some of the gun legislation that came out.

Like, what do you make of kind of her leaving and what it leaves for the Senate and those who are left?

Well, I think there's two things.

One is in her speech or, you know, press release or whatnot, is that, you know what, I'm tired of the thing.

We cannot govern this.

Is this a waste of time?

Well, she was like she was like, it's not me.

It's you.

Basically.

Like people want civility, but like, we're not getting it right.

So I'm not sure she's right about that because Democrats didn't like her because, you know, she was the one who decided not to blow up the filibuster.

And maybe that's the right thing to do.

But they're mad at her for that.

Right.

But, you know, that's what she said.

Yeah.

yeah.

Yeah.

Reporting accurately what she said.

And then the other thing is, like, she could not have a chance of being reelected.

Yeah, I mean, you need a partizan operation on the ground, you need funding.

And yes, there are independent funders out there that do not necessarily support one party of the other, but they don't have the resources that, you know, Democrats and Republicans have.

So it's like either I run and then lose or, you know, Yeah.

But one connection is that if it's the case that that's the traditional Republican Democratic match up, which is going to be a close race, some of that money that otherwise might go to help the Democrat there might come to Texas.

And we'll talk about what the Senate race looks like here in a few minutes.

But the other issue that came up in the Senate is that John Bracero, who was the third John who was considering running for majority minority leader for the party, decided to not run for the top spot.

John Cornyn from Texas is the one who now is sort of in the catbird seat.

Yeah, Bracero took a kind of swipe at John Thune, who's the other John, who's currently the number two the whip.

They're the ones who count the votes and basically said that there needs to be more transparency in that operation.

So it's all secret ballot.

We're not going to know what happens on a blow by blow until like the white smoke comes up.

But I think John Cornyn has got a pretty good chance now.

yeah.

So he's made peace with Donald Trump.

Yeah.

You know, he's sort of well-received with his colleagues.

He's delivered on legislation which was tough to get passed.

And frankly, that's really the name of the game now.

So what do you think?

John Cornyn is going to be a future leader of the Senate?

I think so.

Unless something utterly weird happens, which could happen.

Trump Right.

Suddenly decides, I don't like this one tweet.

And he's like, Yeah.

Yeah, you're.

Gone.

You're out of contention.

Yeah, yeah.

One X.

Sorry, X there's no more Twitter or whatever.

Whatever.

Calling it now, son.

One message.

One message to his supporters.

So, yeah, no, I think he has pretty solid chances.

I mean, he has been in the Senate for years now, decade.

He's a solid politician.

And I think that he's well liked amongst, you know, Democrats and Republicans.

So, yeah, I think that, you know, eventually if they win the Senate, we will have a new leader of the Senate.

If he wins the party leadership.

And John Cornyn, along with all the other senators and members of the House and Supreme Court and Cabinet, are going to be in Washington, D.C. for the president's State of the Union speech.

This is like the Super Bowl for us.

It's going to have a bit of a Texas flair.

Actually, the heat related death of a Dallas mail carrier, Eugene Gates is going to be front and center.

His widow is being invited to the festivities.

A woman who was denied an abortion in Texas to travel out of state and became famous nationally.

Austin Dennard, she's going to be on state of the Union to say it will be kind of a Texas flavor.

What do you think about the president's sort of chances of performing well here in the State of the Union?

Well, he has to.

I mean.

The stakes.

Are super.

Yeah.

I mean, he really has to, you know, do 100%.

And it's an opportunity for him to, you know, quiet those voices, that series that they say that, you know, he's too old, that he loses track, etc., etc., etc., etc., etc..

So I think it's the opportunity.

Yeah.

And the stakes are extremely high.

Yeah, extremely.

Extremely.

And he wants to sort of he wants to sort of talk about these issues that are going to be 20, 24 issues.

Right.

And this is really a good way for presidents to do that.

Now, we know from literature and political science that moving public opinions tough.

So all the things he talked about aren't necessarily going to try to persuade people to see it his way, but he can change people's opinions on his leadership style and quality.

And that's something that scholarship shows as true.

And he frankly needs perception.

Yeah, exactly.

And the other is, is setting the agenda.

And although Congress obviously might not kind of follow along in a presidential election year, it will be the case that the public will pay attention.

Yeah, so he can kind of shift that narrative a little bit.

But it's still a challenge for presidents to move public opinion historically and he's got a pretty tall order ahead of him.

So we'll play that out as it comes.

But let's talk about the big picture for the week, and that's about the Texas primary.

This is party politics.

I'm Brandon.

This is Jeronimo.

I know you're up late watching returns.

It was just a whirlwind of a night.

Give me your top takeaways from the primary.

Big picture stuff.

All right.

So the first things that we have to caveat everything again, this is and part of the electorate that does not necessarily reflect the general electorate.

Sure, turnout was abysmally low.

Yes.

So you're talking about a very, very, very few set of people that went out and vote and got elected.

The you know, whoever they picked, right does this transfer to the general election?

Not necessarily.

We know and we have to be very careful.

Right.

Because my big picture is, okay.

I was thinking, for example, in terms of, you know, the big win that Governor Abbott had supporting or debunking those that did not support school vouchers.

Yeah, you know, they did so because they were following the lead of their district.

Right.

The you know, the overall this, the overall district.

Yeah.

So my question to you, my dear sir, is what do you think that deep, you know, getting out of these you know Republicans who did not support vouchers opens the door for Democrats.

Interesting.

And say, look, this side of the aisle wants to go for vouchers, is going to hurt you.

I'm not going to allow it and my party is not going to allow it.

This party is going to allow it.

Why do you think does that open to the you know, the field for Democrats to be more interpersonal?

Yeah.

And really hit the ground.

We're talking about rural district.

Yes.

And my sense about, you know, Texas Raw Politics is that is more common sense.

Yes, there's values.

Yes, there is.

You know, those normal issues.

But the real issue is about common sense.

And we're talking about our kids education and.

Thinking through all these positive questions and problems.

An answer to your question.

No, I'm sorry to say I don't see this as a kind of two party issue.

I mean, these districts are drawn basically to support one party or the other.

And when you win the primary, effectively, that's going to be the win for the general.

So I hate to be skeptical about it.

Like at this point, I'm done.

You know, typically glass half full, I'm.

Leaving.

But yeah, but I do think that you're going to see that maybe in some rare cases, but that requires a lot from Democrats.

You've got to get the right candidates in position.

You've got to have the right funding.

And a lot of this, those things simply don't match up.

So I'm skeptical that that can happen in most of these districts.

And if you look at the kind of big picture here, Republicans are really winning big in Texas, right?

I mean, they're out voting Democrats for sure.

But like these numbers and all, they're a little squishy because we're still getting final, final returns.

But basically, you've got about half a million votes that the Republicans are out voting Democrats.

And if that translates, you know, catapulted into the general, then they're going to win these statewide races, including the Senate race, which is one of the more important ones.

So there's a lot going on.

I mean, to me, the root of this is polarization.

That is really the watchword.

And that's true for both parties.

Right.

You're seeing the most extremes in both parties winning.

And to me, that's just the nature of kind of politics today.

That's much more nationalized than it was of owning your district is no longer now it's kind of voting what the party line is now.

Party line is dictated by kind of what nationally is the case.

Right.

I see your point.

I mean, I still think that, you know, when I understand the nationalization of politics, but I think also there's going to be a limit.

Right.

And that limit is where's.

That line.

When your livelihood is going to be severely affected?

Right.

I mean, if you're in a rural district.

Yeah, that is.

Yes, gerrymandered, whatever.

Yeah, that's fine.

In which they're going said we're going to have school vouchers and your elementary school, middle school and high school.

That, by the way, has Friday football.

Sorry.

He's going to be like, yeah, bye.

And then you have to drive a hour and a half Have to take your kids to school.

Yeah.

And by the way, yeah, busses are not going to be available, right?

Yeah.

It's like.

I see.

You're point.

Like, I mean, my sense is like, where do you really draw that line?

And if my question is, if, if the Republican Party in this case, Governor Abbott, is pushing it too, too, too, too close, where voters can say, you know what, I'm out.

Yeah, we'll see what.

Kind of deal they can get, because as you say, you're right.

We saw a lot of carnage.

Right?

A lot of members who otherwise we're kind of against the vouchers because they worried about their local schools are now leaving.

Right.

In fact, we have a historic number of these members who are now leaving.

Right.

We have nine of them who've left.

The historical number of high losing incumbents was seven.

So this is really a historic night if for all kinds of reasons.

The establishment basically had a pretty lousy night, including the speaker of the House.

Right.

Who gets a lot of blame for this is going into a runoff.

Yeah, like we said last week, this is embarrassing.

We kind of predicted this would happen, but it rarely happens.

Right.

So going back to 1972 was the last time we saw an incumbent speaker get ousted by their own party.

And even that was also about this kind of internal party fight.

So it's a rare event to happen and really surprising, but in a way totally predictable.

Right.

Donald Trump weighed in on that race like that's a nationalization of the store.

Yeah, right.

So to me, basically, the far right's been pushing for decades to get their way.

And this week in this primary, they pretty much got it.

There are some things to shake out here and there, but certainly they did well.

And part of the reason they did it well was money.

This was a very, very expensive primary.

Dade Phelan's primary was about $3 million That's, as he says, is the most expensive primary in history.

In House District 11, Travis Clardy lost two and a half million dollars spent in San Antonio, House District 121 Steve Allison, who was a kind of moderate member from a fairly affluent district, lost to Mark LaHood $2 million.

So the price tag is going up, but these seats can be bought for that.

And to me, that means that you're going to have winners and losers.

But let's talk about Houston.

Sheila Jackson Lee won.

Were you surprised by this?

I mean, yes and no, because there were signs, as during, you know, before she declared that, you know, Ed Edwards had an advantage.

Right.

You know, the argument of new blood, new leadership.

She got a ton of money, key endorsements on and so forth.

Right.

So I think that eventually, you know, the were glimpses like, maybe it could happen.

It could happen.

Right.

But it did not.

Don't bet against Sheila Jackson in this district, is the message.

Right, regardless, because you're right, she was very well-funded, had lots of endorsements, but they didn't materialize.

On the other side of things, Kim Ogg, the district attorney, lost in a pretty competitive race to Sean Teare.

But Lost doesn't really describe what happened.

You know, he basically stomped her.

To me, the twin problems of making Democrats mad and the mismanagement of the office were just too much.

Yeah.

For most people to overcome.

Yeah.

And so voters pretty much had enough.

But to me, the big winner here is Judge Lina Hidalgo.

absolutely.

All out effort to make this happen.

So as probably the most important, well-liked Democrat on that side of the aisle, she really did move the needle here.

But I want to urge caution for a second.

I get your take on this last thing.

And that's we have a county judge who has been under investigation and some of her staff members indicted and she uses her kind of political platform to unseat that person.

If this happened in a different country, what would you say?

It's worrisome to me in the same way.

It's worrisome that we have Ken Paxton, you know, challenging these jurists right on the Court of Appeals and winning all three of those seats.

To me, it's the same problem.

Yeah, You've got basically this worry that we're investing in the sort of politics of the the the justice system, and that's creating these unfortunate dynamics which could lead to problems.

absolutely.

So, yeah, in other country we call here, for example, lobby like fine, yeah, it's legal.

Like.

In other countries that it's called corruption.

Corruption.

Period.

That's it, right?

So I mean we have institutional, different ways of doing politics, but absolutely right.

It's a bad signal.

And I don't, you know, necessarily blame one side or the other, but initially right.

If you're going to start investigating your county judge, you know, send it to another D.A.

Yeah.

Like to be transparent about it.

That's okay.

Because once you're entering and the perception of the public, this is a knife fight, then you know, knife fight, gloves are off, you know, go for it.

Right.

So you sent to another county and it's like, Yeah, you do.

What you do.

Thank you for your help.

The optics of it.

Exactly right.

And that would have, you know, had a different effect.

Maybe so.

Yeah.

So, you know, Yes, but it's not good optics.

But also, I think it's, you know, that Democrats were, you know, not pleased with what happened.

They're also not pleased with Sean Thierry representative of District 142.

She's headed to a runoff against labor organizer Lauren Ashley Simmons.

We talked about this last week about sort of the consequences, again, of gerrymandering.

And so, like I said earlier, the extremes, the parties are really driving a lot of what happens.

Yeah.

And so in like you said, the very small percentage of people vote in these primaries and they're really the most extreme in both wings.

And so that's stunning.

I don't think that this is going to be a race that she can easily defend.

Democrats are definitely going to come for her.

And the fact that there are few other Democratic runoffs means, yes, she's going to get all of that action trained on her.

Will Republicans come to her aid financially the way they did in the general?

I don't know, or in the primary, rather.

I don't know.

We'll see how that comes out.

Let's talk about the Senate race.

Colin Allred just slaughtered.

Yeah.

Roland Gutierrez.

Yes, in a way that I thought was quite surprising.

What do you think?

Yeah, Well, I mean, here is where, you know, money takes you, right?

Yeah.

And he's a huge fundraiser.

Yeah.

yeah.

In Texas likes moderates.

Democrats want moderates in this role.

And so I think that they're banking on the fact that independents and kind of conservative leaners may come out to vote for Colin Allred over Ted Cruz.

I'm skeptical.

I'm skeptical, especially if turnout is really low.

Now.

When better ran in 18, we saw a huge turnout and he was getting some of that crossover support.

But it's hard to see that happening in a more polarized world.

So, yeah, we'll see.

But he did make up some ground in the valley because Gutierrez and also Mark Gonzales, who was a third candidate in that race of several people.

Right.

But he was more successful in some of these counties than Colin Allred.

So I think that they need to do some work along the border.

Joe Biden too actually he wins, of course, Texas, we should say that he wins the delegates from Texas.

But along the valley, he didn't do so well.

So what's your take on that?

I mean, I mean, it depends, right?

I mean, in some pockets he did well.

But once again, we discussed this last week.

There is no competition, There's no enthusiasm, turnout is abysmal.

Low So, yes, you can say that.

But I think that we have to be very careful and not create this whole story with, you know, a very small and we have very, very, very few cases.

And then we make a whole thing, you know.

That's what we do.

Yeah, that's how we don't know.

That's how we get to, you know, chapters of books.

But Greg Abbott had a good night.

You mentioned earlier, I want to get your sense of this because he really put his credibility on the line and he was successful.

So he spent a bunch of money, spent a lot of time, and was able to basically get many of these individuals out of office.

So six of the House Republicans who fought Abbott's attempts to create a school voucher program lost their profile, lost up to two other people, and four of them are going to runoffs.

They need to flip about 11 seats in order for there to be a dynamic shift in terms of policy preferences.

They may get there, but we might need to rename the Grand Old Party, the Grand Abbott Party, because he's really put a stamp on this and this is a signature win for him.

Well, obviously a lot of money spent and he was able to do so again, We have to wait and see what happens in the general election.

But yeah, I mean it's it's a solid win for for Abbott.

And as we discussed like it was, we were waiting to see what happened and you know, definitely.

Here it.

Is.

Yeah.

Do not expect a very conservative session and remember the names of some of these people because they're going to make national headlines and some of them are very, very conservative.

So we are going to see this be, I think, a blow up of an issue going forward.

Real quickly, Ken Paxton, also a pretty good night there.

Sometimes where he didn't compete as well against candidates that Abbott had endorsed, but sometimes he did.

But he did get rid of all three of the members of the.

House and he didn't put any money because everything is going to legal fees.

So, you know, it's like he didn't invest a single penny, I mean, overall in comparison with Governor Abbott.

So yes.

And he debunked three judges in the Texas criminal appeals court.

Really amazing.

It's crazy.

We talked about Dade Phelan, who was fighting not just one but two West Texas billionaires and Donald Trump and Greg Abbott.

And Dan Patrick was at the David Covey, his opponent, who is now in a runoff with him at election night with him standing next to him.

So I think we can see the writing on the wall.

There is going to be a very conservative version of the Republican Party moving into well, I mean.

We have a runoff there.

So we'll see what happens.

We'll see.

Yeah, no, we have to wait.

But definitely we saw a lot of conservatives winning and that's going to change the way that Texas works.

Absolutely.

But we're going to talk about that and we'll see what happens in our next Party Politics.

That's it for today.

I'm Jeronimo Cortina.

And I'm Brandon Rottinghaus.

And the conversation keeps up next week.