>>> NEXT, TO THE FUTURE OF WORK HERE IN AMERICA.

WHERE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IS TAKING HOLD AND FEARS OF UNEMPLOYMENT ARE GROWING.

ELON MUSK CALLED IT THE MOST DISRUPTIVE FORCE IN HISTORY.

AND 75% OF AMERICAN ADULTS THINK A.I.

WILL LEAD TO JOB LOSSES.

ACCORDING TO A RECENT GALLUP POLL, THAT IS.

BUT M.I.T.

ECONOMICS PROFESSOR DAVID AUTOR SAYS THIS FEAR IS ACTUALLY MISPLACED.

HE JOINS WALTER ISAACSON TO DISCUSS THE OPPORTUNITIES A.I.

WILL BRING.

>> THANK YOU, CHRISTIANE.

AND PROFESSOR DAVID AUTOR, WELCOME TO THE SHOW.

>> THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR HAVING ME.

>> YOU'RE A LABOR ECONOMIST, YOU'VE LOOKED AT HOW TECHNOLOGY AFFECTS JOBS, AND YOU HAVE A NEW PIECE OUT ABOUT ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, SAYING THAT A.I.

COULD ACTUALLY HELP REBUILD THE MIDDLE CLASS.

BUT BEFORE WE GET TO THAT, LET'S DO A LITTLE BIT OF A WALK-THROUGH HISTORY.

FOR LONGTIME, WHETHER IT'S BACK TO THE EARLY 1800s, THEY FELT TECHNOLOGY WOULD DESTROY JOBS, THE FOLLOWERS SMASHED THE LOOMS OF ENGLAND.

HAS THERE EVER BEEN A CASE WHERE TECHNOLOGY DECREASES THE TOTAL NUMBER OF JOBS?

>> DOESN'T NORMALLY DECREASE THEM, BUT IT DOES CHANGE THEM A LOT.

AND THE SKILLS WERE DEVALUED BY POWER LOOMS, AND THE TRANSITION FROM THE ARTISANAL ERA, WHERE PEOPLE MADE THINGS BY HAND, THERE START TO FINISH, TO THE EARLY INDUSTRIAL ERA, WAS WRENCHING FOR LABOR.

IT DISPLACED A LOT OF VALUABLE SKILLS, YOU KNOW, PEOPLE WHO WERE, YOU KNOW, TAILORS AND BLACKSMITHS AND WHEELWRIGHTS AND SO ON.

AND A LOT -- WHAT WE END UP WITH WAS A LOT OF UNMARRIED WOMEN AND CHILDREN WORKING IN DANGEROUS FACTORIES USING VERY FEW SKILLS AND GETTING PAID VERY LITTLE.

AND THE FIRST FIVE DECADES OF THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION WERE NOT A GOOD TIME FOR LABOR.

WAGES DIDN'T RISE, EVEN THOUGH PRODUCTIVITY ROSE, AND WHY WAS THAT?

BECAUSE EXPERTISE, WHAT WAS NEEDED WAS NOT SCARCE.

YOU JUST NEEDED PEOPLE, PHYSICAL BODIES WHO COULD TEND MACHINES.

NOW, THAT CHANGED OVER TIME, AS INDUSTRY ADVANCED, THE MACHINES BECAME MORE COMPLEX, AND SO, THE INDUSTRIAL ERA EVENTUALLY GAVE RISE TO A PERIOD OF WHAT I'M CALLING, DEMAND FOR MASS EXPERTISE.

PEOPLE THAT COULD DO THOSE TASKS ON ASSEMBLY LINES, BUT ALSO IN OFFICES.

YOU CAN THINK OF EARLY 20th CENTURY OFFICES BEING AN ASSEMBLY LINE FOR INFORMATION.

AND THOUGH THAT SET OF SKILLS WAS QUITE DIFFERENT, NOT LIKE THE ARTISANS, THEY WEREN'T MAKING CARS FROM END TO END, ONE PERSON AT A TIME, BUT THE ABILITY TO OPERATE A LATHE, OR TO INSTALL A WHEEL, OR TO PROOFREAD AND TYPESET A DOCUMENT, THOSE WERE VALUABLE SKILLS, THEY WERE MADE VERY PRODUCTIVE AND EFFICIENT BY AUTOMATION, BY THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION, BY THIS NEW WAY OF ORGANIZING WORK.

AND THAT LED TO A LOT OF ECONOMIC GROWTH, BOTH FOR CONSUMERS AND FOR WORKERS THAT POWERED US FROM REALLY THE LATE 18th CENTURY THROUGH THE 1980s.

>> IN OTHER WORDS, PRODUCTIVITY GROWS, NEW TECHNOLOGY ENDS UP HELPING THE ECONOMY, CREATING A WHOLE NEW SET OF JOBS, BUT IT ENDS UP BEING WRENCHING AND LEAVING PEOPLE BEHIND, IS THAT WHAT YOU'RE SAYING?

>> ABSOLUTELY.

WHEN IT CREATES VALUABLE JOBS IS WHEN IT REWARDS HUMAN EXPERTISE.

WHAT IS EXPERTISE?

EXPERTISE IS THE SPECIFIC KNOW-HOW TO DO SOMETHING VALUABLE.

SO, JUST TO GIVE YOU AN EXAMPLE, THINK OF THE JOB OF AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLER AND CROSSING GUARD.

THESE ARE BASICALLY THE SAME JOB, ACTUALLY.

IT'S A JOB TO PREVENT PEOPLE AND MACHINES FROM COLLIDING WITH ONE ANOTHER OR MACHINES AND MACHINES COLLIDING, AND YET, AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS GET PAID MORE THAN FOUR TIMES WHAT CROSSING GUARDS GET PAID, AND THE DIFFERENCE IS NOT SOCIAL VALUE.

IF WE HAD TO SPEND A LOT OF MONEY TO PREVENT OUR CHILDREN FROM BEING RUN OVER ON THE WAY TO SCHOOL, WE WOULD SPEND THAT MONEY.

IT'S A MATTER OF EXPERTISE.

IT TAKES HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF HOURS OF APPRENTICESHIP TO BECOME A CREDENTIALED AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLER.

TO BECOME A CROSSING GUARD REQUIRES NO TRAINING OR CREDENTIALING IN ALMOST ANY STATE.

AND THEREFORE, THE PEOPLE THAT CAN DO IT ARE ABUNDANT, AND SO IT PAYS LOW WAGES.

AND THAT WAS TRUE OF EARLY FACTORY WORK, AS WELL.

SO, IT'S NEVER BEEN A QUESTION IN THE UNITED STATES, CERTAINLY, OF THE QUANTITY OF JOBS, BUT IT HAS BEEN ABOUT THE QUALITY, AND QUALITY MEANS USING HUMAN EXPERTISE.

>> YOU WROTE A PAPER ABOUT TEN YEARS AGO CALLED "WHY ARE THERE SO MANY JOBS?"

AND IN THE 1960s, EVERYBODY SAID AUTOMATION WOULD TOTALLY PUT US OUT OF WORK.

WHAT WAS YOUR POINT IN THAT STORY, AND WHAT DID WE GET WRONG ABOUT LEAVING PEOPLE BEHIND?

>> THE MAIN POINT OF THAT ARTICLE IS THAT WE HAD ENTERED A DIFFERENT INDUSTRIAL ERA WITH THE COMPUTER REVOLUTION, AND THAT ACTUALLY COMPETED WITH THE EXPERTISE OF WORKERS IN FACTORIES AND OFFICES WHO WERE CARRYING OUT THESE TASKS, THEY WERE SKILLED TASKS, BUT THEY FOLLOWED WELL UNDERSTOOD RULES AND PROCEDURES.

THAT CAUSED WORKERS TO BE PUSHED OUT OF MIDDLE SCHOOL JOBS, OUT OF PRODUCTION JOBS, OUT OF OFFICE JOBS, OUT OF ADMINISTRATIVE SUPPORT AND CLERICAL JOBS AND CREATED A BIFURCATED LABOR MARKET.

ON THE ONE HAND, IF YOU ARE A PROFESSIONAL WORKER, YOU ARE A DECISION-MAKER.

AND COMPUTING IS A GREAT INPUT INTO DECISION-MAKING.

IT GIVES YOU DATA, IT GIVES YOU ANALYSIS, IT GIVES YOU ALL THE INFORMATION YOU NEED.

YOU STILL HAVE TO DO THE HARD WORK OF DECIDING, HOW DO I CARE FOR THIS CANCER PATIENT, HOW DO I DESIGN A BUILDING THAT PEOPLE WANT TO LIVE IN, HOW DO I ARCHITECT A PIECE OF SOFTWARE, HOW DO I CONTRACT AND REENGINEER A HOUSE?

SO, THOSE ARE HARD DECISIONS.

COMPUTING IS REALLY VALUABLE.

MAKES THAT WORK BETTER.

MAKES PEOPLE MORE VALUABLE IN DOING THAT WORK.

FOR THOSE PEOPLE, HOWEVER, WHO ARE NOT FORTUNATE ENOUGH TO HAVE A COLLEGE EDUCATION, WHICH IS MORE THAN HALF OF THE WORK FORCE, MANY OF THEM AS THEY WERE MOVED OUT OF MIDDLE SKILL JOBS, THEY ENDED UP IN SERVICES, THAT USE RELATIVELY GENERIC EXPERTISE, FOOD SERVICE, CLEANING, SECURITY, ENTERTAINMENT, RECREATION, HOME CARE, AND, AGAIN, THOSE JOBS ARE SOCIALLY VALUABLE, BUT BECAUSE THEY DON'T REQUIRE SPECIALIZED SKILLS AND EXPERTISE, THEY PAY POORLY.

AND SO, THE COMPUTER REVOLUTION, IT DIDN'T REDUCE EMPLOYMENT, WE HAVE HIGH EMPLOYMENT TO POPULATION RATIOS.

WHAT IT DOES WAS, IT BIFURCATED THE LABOR FORCE AND KIND OF CUT OUT THE MIDDLE RUNGS OF THE LADDER THAT WEAKEN THE MIDDLE CLASS, REDUCED ECONOMIC MOBILITY, AND CREATED A BIG DIVIDE BETWEEN MORE EDUCATED AND LESS EDUCATED WORKERS, AND THAT'S REALLY WHAT WE'VE BEEN CONTENDING WITH FOR THE LAST FOUR DECADES, FROM 1980 TO 2020, WE'VE BEEN REALLY FEELING THE EFFECTS OF THIS POLARIZATION OF EMPLOYMENT.

>> SO, NOW, LET'S GO TO THE ERA OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, THE ERA OF A.I.

WE'VE GOT THROUGH 50 YEARS, SINCE THE ADVENT OF THE PERSONAL COMPUTER, AND AS YOU'VE EXPLAINED, IT'S HOLLOWED OUT SORT OF THE MIDDLE CLASS, THE MIDDLE WORKER IN FAVOR OF THOSE WITH HIGH-END EXPERTISE.

WILL A.I.

CHANGE THAT?

>> IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CHANGE THAT, IF WE USE IT WELL.

SO, LET ME SAY, WHAT IS A.I., WHAT MAKES IT EVEN DIFFERENT FROM TRADITIONAL COMPUTING?

TRADITIONAL COMPUTING FOLLOWED RULES.

IT FOLLOWS WHAT WE CALL INDUCKIVE LOGIC.

IT DOES THE STEPS UNTIL IT GETS TO AN ANSWER.

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE DOES THE OPPOSITE.

IT LEARNS FROM EXAMPLES.

IT LEARNS FROM LOOKING AT UNSTRUCTURED DATA AND DRAWING OUT PATTERNS AND RECOGNIZING REGULARITIES THAT ARE USEFUL FOR MAKING DECISIONS, FOR PREDICTING WHAT'S GOING TO COME NEXT.

AND IN FACT, IT'S AN IRONY -- IT'S ACTUALLY THE OPPOSITION OF TRADITIONAL COMPUTING.

IF I TOLD YOU, THE WORLD'S FRONTIER COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY CAN'T DO MATH AND CAN'T KEEP FACTS STRAIGHT, YOU'D SAY, THAT DOESN'T SOUND LIKE A VERY ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY, BUT THAT'S WHAT A.I.

IS.

IT'S REALLY GOOD AT, YOU KNOW, LEARNING FROM EXAMPLE AND EXTRAPOLATING FROM EXAMPLE.

SO, THAT MAKES IT POTENTIALLY A VERY GOOD DECISION SUPPORT TOOL.

BECAUSE IT RECOGNIZES, YOU KNOW, PATTERNS AND REGULARITIES, LIKE WE DO WHEN WE'RE MAKING A JUDGMENT ABOUT HOW TO CARE FOR A PATIENT OR, YOU KNOW, HOW TO BUILD A BUILDING.

OR HOW TO DO RESEARCH OR HOW TO TEACH.

>> SO, HOW IS THAT GOING TO HELP THE MIDDLE SKILLED WORKER?

>> SURE.

LET ME GIVE YOU AN EXAMPLE THAT I THINK IS MOTIVATING.

IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH A.I.

XE SIFICILY.

LET'S TAKE THE JOB OF A NURSE PRACTITIONER.

THESE ARE REGISTERED NURSES THAT HAVE ADDITIONAL MASTERS DEGREE IN TRAINING.

THEY DO THINGS THAT NURSES WERE NOT ALLOWED TO DO SOME DECADES AGO AND DOCTORS WERE EXCLUSIVELY ALLOWED TO DO, WHICH IS TO DIAGNOSE, TO PRESCRIBE MEDICATIONS, AND TO TREAT.

AND THEY ARE ESSENTIALLY, A KIND OF A MIDDLE CLASS OF MEDICAL PROFESSIONAL, NOW THERE ARE SEVERAL HUNDRED THOUSANDS IN THE UNITED STATES, IT'S A WELL-PAID JOB, BETTER THAN REGISTERED NURSES.

NOW, IT CAME ABOUT NOT BECAUSE OF TECHNOLOGY, IT BECAUSE BECAUSE OF A SOCIAL MOVEMENT, THAT NURSES PRIMARILY, WOMEN, RECOGNIZED THEY WERE UNDERUSED AND FOUGHT LIKE HELL TO CARVE OUT A NEW FIELD AND A CREDENTIAL AND A SCOPE OF PRACTICE.

AT THIS POINT, THEY'RE VERY HEAVILY SUPPORTED BY TECHNOLOGY.

ELECTRONIC MEDICAL RECORDS, DIAGNOSTIC SOFTWARE, PRESCRIPTION SOFTWARE, AND THAT ENABLES THEM TO DO A BROADER SCOPE OF WORK.

AND SO, NOT ONLY HAS THIS CREATED A VALUABLE JOB, IT CREATES A VALUABLE PATIENT SERVICE.

YOU DON'T HAVE TO WAIT AS LONG TO SEE A DOCTOR.

AND IT'S NOT AS EXPENSIVE TO DO SO.

AND IT'S NOT HARD TO IMAGINE A FUTURE WHERE PEOPLE WITH ADDITIONAL MEDICAL TRAINING OR EVEN NURSE PRACTITIONERS, COULD DO A BROADER SET OF ACTIVITIES WITHOUT HAVING TO BRING IN THE MOST EXPENSIVE PROFESSIONAL IN THE ROOM.

AND THAT MATTERS, BECAUSE MOST OF THESE ELITE PROFESSIONS THAT WE'RE SPEAKING OF REQUIRE A BACHELOR'S DEGREE, PLUS A MASTERS DEGREE, A Ph.D OR AN M.D.

OR RS ARE NOT AT THAT SAME LEVEL.

AND THIS EXAMPLE IS JUST AN EXAMPLE.

IT COULD BE TRUE IN -- YOU CAN IMAGINE A CONTRACTOR, WHO HAS BETTER TOOLS TO SCOPE OUT, WHAT ARE THE VIABLE KITCHEN DESIGNS, WHAT ARE THE, YOU KNOW, WHAT ARE CERTIFIABLE ENGINEERING DESIGNS SO THE BUILDING WILL STAND, ET CETERA.

YOU CAN -- YEAH, SO, I CAN -- OR EVEN IN LAW, RIGHT?

PEOPLE WHO ARE NOT -- DO NOT HAVE MANY YEARS OF LEGAL EXPERIENCE COULD POTENTIALLY STILL DO MORE VALUABLE WORK.

SO, THE -- SO THE GOOD SCENARIO, RIGHT, AS I MENTIONED EARLIER, YOU KNOW, 6 OUT OF 10 U.S. WORKERS DO NOT HAVE A FOUR-YEAR COLLEGE DEGREE.

MOST OF THEM ARE FOUND IN THESE LOW PAID SERVICES THAT AREN'T USING SPECIALIZED SKILLS.

IF MORE OF THOSE WORKERS WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORTING TRAINING COULD DO MEDICAL CARE, COULD DO LEGAL SERVICES, WOULD DO DESIGN, AND, SO -- WE WILL KNOW IF WE'RE SUCCEEDING WITH THIS TECHNOLOGY IF WE ENABLE PEOPLE WITHOUT FOUR-YEAR COLLEGE DEGREES TO DO MORE VALUABLE DECISION-MAKING WORK.

TO OPEN UP THE FIELD OF EXPERTISE, STHAUCH, IT'S NOT TO SAY TO ELIMINATE, YOU KNOW, I'M NOT SAYING WE'RE GOING TO GET RID OF DOCTORS AND LAWYERS, BUT NOW ENABLE MORE PEOPLE TO DO THAT WORK AT SOME LEVEL.

>> SO, WHAT YOU'RE SAYING IS THAT SOMEBODY WITH A HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA, BUT NOT A COLLEGE DEGREE, WHO PROBABLY LOST OUT A BIT IN THE INFORMATION AND COMPUTER REVOLUTION, THEY CAN BE EMPOWERED TO DO THINGS THAT NOW TAKE EXPERTS TO DO.

>> RIGHT.

AGAIN, WITH THE RIGHT TRAINING.

YOU WOULDN'T JUST SAY, HEY, I'VE GOT THIS TOOL FOR YOU, GO TAKE CARE OF THIS PATIENT AND, YOU KNOW, DO IT -- LET ME SAY, PERFORM SOME PROCEDURE.

THAT WOULD BE A TERRIBLE IDEA.

SOMETHING IS GOING TO GO WRONG AND THE PATIENT WILL BE IN AN EMERGENCY.

BUT IT'S PLAUSIBLE THAT I WOULD SAY, HEY, YOU HAVE A TWO-YEAR MEDICAL CERTIFICATE IN X-RAY TECHNOLOGY, OR YOU ARE A PHYSICAL THERAPIST AND SO ON, HERE, YOU CAN DO A BROADER RANGE OF PROCEDURES, NOW THAT YOU HAVE THE JUDGMENT AND YOU HAVE THE FOUNDATIONAL KNOWLEDGE.

>> PREVIOUS TECHNOLOGY REVOLUTIONS IN HISTORY GENERALLY HURT THOSE WITH LESS SKILLS, LESS EDUCATION.

THIS ONE, PERHAPS, WILL DISRUPT JOBS OF THE MOST EDUCATED.

WHICH JOBS ARE THE MOST THREATENED?

>> I THINK THE JOBS THAT HAVE THE MOST -- YOU KNOW, HAVE THE MOST OPPORTUNITY FOR BEING SUBSTANTIALLY AUTOMATED ARE ONES THAT ARE KIND OF MID-LEVEL DECISION-MAKING TASKS AND MANAGERIAL WORK, FOR EXAMPLE, BUT SIMULTANEOUSLY, WE COULD ALSO SEE GREATER CAPACITY FOR MORE PEOPLE TO DO THAT TYPE OF WORK.

SO, THERE'S A NUMBER OF EXPERIMENTS WHERE WE SEE WHAT COMPUTER -- WHAT A.I.

DOES, IT KIND OF LEVELS THE PRODUCTIVITY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MORE AND LESS EXPERIENCED WORKERS.

WE SEE THAT IN WRITING TASKS, WE SEE THAT IN CUSTOMER SUPPORT TASKS, LIKE TECHNICAL CUSTOMER SUPPORT TASKS.

WE SEE THAT IN CONSULTING AND ANALYTIC TASKS, THAT OFTEN, YOU KNOW, THE TOOL COMPLIMENTS JUDGMENTS, ENABLES PEOPLE TO DO BETTER WORK.

AND IF THAT'S TRUE, THEN POTENTIALLY, IT CAN LOWER THE BARRIERS TO ENTRY.

NOW, THERE'S A COUNTERARGUMENT TO THIS, THERE'S PROBABLY MANY, BUT ONE OF THEM, YOU'LL SAY, OKAY, SAY IT MAKES YOUR NURSE PRACTITIONER 5% BETTER, 20% BETTER, BUT MAKES THE BEST DOCTOR 100% OR 1,000% BETTER, DOESN'T THAT MAKE THE NURSE PRACTITIONER, YOU KNOW, NO LONGER CCOMPETITIVE, RIGHT?

AND I WOULD SAY, THE ANSWER TO THAT IS NO.

AND THE REASON IS, BECAUSE DOCTORS HAVE CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS, RIGHT?

IF THE BEST DOCTOR IN THE WORLD GETS 100 TIMES BETTER, I'M STILL NEVER GOING TO SEE THAT DOCTOR.

THAT'S NOT RELEVANT TO ME.

SO, MANY, MANY SERVICES ARE -- THEY CANNOT BE DOMINATED BY ONE EXPERT, RIGHT?

THERE'S TOO MUCH -- YOU NEED TOO MUCH ONE-ON-ONE, WHETHER THAT'S A LEGAL CASE, WHETHER THAT'S EDUCATION, WHETHER THAT'S MEDICINE, WHETHER THAT'S DESIGN, WEATHER THAT'S RESEARCH.

SO, YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE TO -- A LOT OF PEOPLE WILL HAVE TO BE INVOLVED.

HEALTH CARE IS THE BEST EXAMPLE.

>> YOU TALK ABOUT DEMOCRATIZING EXPERTISE.

COULDN'T IT HAPPEN, THOUGH, THAT THAT JUST MAKES SOME OF THE EXPERTS REDUNDANT AT A CERTAIN POINT INSTEAD OF A GREAT TEACHER?

AND LIKEWISE, FOR LEGAL OR MEDICAL WORK, THOSE CAN BE REPLACED BY GREAT A.I.

IN FIVE OR TEN YEARS.

>> IN SOME CASES.

IT'S GOING TO CREATE MORE COMPETITION, RIGHT?

IT'S DEFINITELY GOING TO CREATE MORE COMPETITION AT THE TOP.

AND IN A WAY, THAT'S GOOD.

THE PROBLEM WE FACE IS, A LOT OF OUR INEQUALITY IS DRIVEN BY VERY, VERY HIGH WAGES FOR HIGHLY EDUCATED WORKERS.

I'M NOT SAYING THEY'RE NOT WORKING HARD, THEY HAVEN'T EARNED THAT MONEY, BUT THAT SCARCITY ACTUALLY IS, YOU KNOW, IS A PROBLEM FOR THE REST OF US, RIGHT?

SO, IF, YOU KNOW, YOU AND I, WE'RE PROFESSIONALS, THAT'S GREAT.

IF WE PAY FOR HEALTH CARE AND IT'S EXPENSIVE, I'M BEING REWARDED AS A PROFESSIONAL, GOOD FOR ME.

BUT IF I'M AN AUTO WORKER OR WORK AT WALMART, I'M NOT ON THE OUTSIDE OF THAT EQUATION, ONLY THE DOWNSIDE, RIGHT?

SO, IF WE COULD ACTUALLY -- IF IT WAS POSSIBLE TO MAKE SOME OF THOSE SERVICES LESS EXPENSIVE, MORE ACCESSIBLE, IT'S TRUE.

WE MAY -- THE PREMIUM SALARY PAID TO THE MOST ELITE PROFESSIONALS MAY GO DOWN A BIT, BUT IF THAT CREATES A LOT MORE JOBS FOR OTHERS THAT ENABLES PEOPLE WITHOUT AS MUCH FORMAL TRAINING TO STILL DO REALLY GOOD WORK, I DON'T MEAN NO TRAINING, I JUST MEAN THE RIGHT LEVEL, AND LOWERS THE PRICES OF THOSE SERVICES FOR OTHERS, MAKES EDUCATION MORE AFFORDABLE, MORE ACCESSIBLE, ACTUALLY MORE INTERESTING?

IF IT MAKES HEALTH CARE MORE AVAILABLE TO MORE FOLKS, IF IT MEANS THAT, YOU KNOW, SOFTWARE IS ACTUALLY LESS EXPENSIVE TO CREATE, SO, YOU CAN CREATE, YOU KNOW, CUSTOMIZED APPLICATIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS OR FOR YOUR HOME, RIGHT, THERE'S A LOT OF BENEFIT TO THAT.

SO, I'M NOT ARGUING THAT EVERYBODY ALWAYS WINS.

IN ALL THESE CASES OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE, THEY HAVE ALWAYS CREATED WINNERS AND LOSERS.

THE ARTISANS LOST OUT, TOOK 50 YEARS FOR WORKERS TO BENEFIT.

COMPUTERIZATION BENEFITED PROFESSIONALS A GREAT DEAL.

IT REALLY WAS NOT GOOD FOR MIDDLE SKILL WORKERS.

IT WAS NOT GOOD FOR OFFICE WORKERS, IT WAS NOT GOOD FOR PRODUCTION OFFERS.

IT MADE A LOT OF THEIR SKILLS REDUNDANT.

THE DISTRIBUTIONAL CONSEQUENCES WERE PRETTY CRAPPY.

MOST OF THE TIME, TECHNOLOGY IS GOOD FOR THE ELITE AND NOT SO GOOD FOR EVERYBODY ELSE.

THIS IS A CASE WHERE THE TECHNOLOGY MAY COMPETE A LITTLE MORE WITH THE ELITE AND ENABLE MORE PEOPLE TO DO VALUABLE WORK.

SO, I'M WILLING TO TAKE THAT TRADE, IF IT'S AWKWARD.

>> DAVID AUTOR, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US.

>> THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR INVITING ME.