ANNOUNCER: FOR ALL OF HISTORY, WORK HAS PUT FOOD IN THE MOUTHS AND SHELTER OVER THE HEADS OF PEOPLE WHILE DIFFERENT CULTURES IN DIFFERENT ERAS SET DIFFERENT RULES FOR WHO COULD WORK OR WHAT KIND OF WORK WOULD BE WELL REWARDED AND WHAT OTHER KINDS WOULD BE POORLY COMPENSATED.

WORK PROVIDED MORE THAN MATERIAL SUPPORT FOR LIFE.

IT ALSO PROVIDED SOME MEASURE OF DIGNITY AND PURPOSE IN LIFE.

SINCE THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION, THE WORK OF HUMANITY HAS CHANGED AND CHANGED AGAIN, AND IT IS CLEAR THAT THE 21st CENTURY WILL BRING, IN FACT IS BRINGING ALREADY, ANOTHER GREAT WAVE OF CHANGE, PERHAPS THE GREATEST AND FASTEST EVER.

WHAT DOES OUR WORKFORCE LOOK LIKE TODAY?

WHAT WILL IT LOOK LIKE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THIS CENTURY?

AND WHAT WILL WORK ACTUALLY MEAN?

THIS EPISODE OF "THE WHOLE TRUTH" WAS MADE POSSIBLE BY THE MILL SPRING FOUNDATION, THE DORAN FAMILY FOUNDATION, AMETEK, AND BY... FOR HUNDREDS OF YEARS IN ENGLISH-SPEAKING COURTROOMS AROUND THE WORLD, PEOPLE HAVE SWORN AN OATH TO TELL NOT ONLY THE TRUTH, BUT RATHER THE WHOLE TRUTH.

THE OATH REFLECTS THE WISDOM THAT FAILING TO TELL ALL OF A STORY CAN BE AS EFFECTIVE AS LYING IF YOUR GOAL IS TO MAKE THE FACTS SUPPORT YOUR POINT OF VIEW.

IN THE COURTROOM, THE SEARCH FOR TRUTH ALSO RELIES ON ADVOCATES ADVANCING FIRM, CONTRADICTORY ARGUMENTS, AND DOING SO WITH DECORUM.

ALL OF THESE APPLY TO THE COURT OF PUBLIC OPINION, WHAT JOHN STEWART MILL CALLED THE MARKETPLACE OF IDEAS.

THIS SERIES IS A PLACE IN WHICH THE COMPETING VOICES ON THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES OF OUR TIME ARE CHALLENGED AND SET INTO MEANINGFUL CONTEXT SO THAT VIEWERS LIKE YOU CAN DECIDE FOR THEMSELVES THE WHOLE TRUTH.

TODAY "THE WHOLE TRUTH" TURNS TO THE ISSUE OF THE AMERICAN WORKFORCE.

WHEN THE UNITED STATES WAS FOUNDED, 97% OF AMERICANS EARNED THEIR LIVING AS FARMERS.

ONLY 3% DID ANYTHING AND EVERYTHING ELSE.

BY THE LATE 20th CENTURY, THAT FIGURE HAD PRECISELY REVERSED, WITH 97% OF AMERICANS EMPLOYED OUTSIDE OF AGRICULTURE AND ONLY 3% REMAINING ON THE FARMS.

BUT THAT MONUMENTAL SHIFT IS ONLY THE BEGINNING OF THE STORY OF WORKFORCE TRANSFORMATION.

FROM THE CIVIL WAR THROUGH THE END OF THE 20th CENTURY, THE AMERICAN WORKFORCE WENT THROUGH MANY WAVES OF FUNDAMENTAL TRANSFORMATION WITH THE CENTER OF GRAVITY OF THE ECONOMY MOVING INTO HEAVY INDUSTRY, THEN LATER CONSUMER-ORIENTED MANUFACTURING, THEN OUT OF MANUFACTURING AND INTO SERVICES.

AND FINALLY IN THE LAST 20 OR 25 YEARS, THE CENTER OF GRAVITY WITHIN THE SERVICE ECONOMY HAS SHIFTED TOWARDS MORE HIGHLY SKILLED CREATIVE POSITIONS.

OF COURSE, EACH OF THESE TRANSITIONS WAS ACCOMPANIED BY HARDSHIP AND DISLOCATION FOR MANY MILLIONS.

IT BECAME DIFFICULT TO BE A BLACKSMITH IN THE EARLY 20th CENTURY.

IT BECAME DIFFICULT TO BE AN ASSEMBLY LINE WORKER OR A COAL MINER AT THE END OF THE 20th CENTURY.

THE 2016 ELECTION IDENTIFIED A CLEAR FAULT LINE IN THE AMERICAN ECONOMY, CULTURE, AND POLITY WITH THOSE WHO HAVE BENEFITED FROM THE ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATIONS OF RECENT DECADES AND THOSE WHOSE JOBS ARE THREATENED BY LABOR FORCE TRANSFORMATIONS, INCLUDING RAPID TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES.

AND SO THE QUESTION IS, WHAT WILL AMERICANS IN THE FUTURE DO FOR A LIVING?

WITH ALL OF ITS SOCIAL AND POLITICAL RAMIFICATIONS, FOR THE NEXT GENERATION, THIS LOOMS AT THE HEART OF OUR NATIONAL CHALLENGE.

HERE TO DISCUSS THESE IMPORTANT QUESTIONS ON TODAY'S EPISODE OF "THE WHOLE TRUTH" ARE ANURAG HARSH, AUTHOR AND SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT AT ZIFF DAVIS, DR. LANE KENWORTHY, PROFESSOR OF SOCIOLOGY AND YANKELOVICH CHAIR IN SOCIAL THOUGHT AT THE UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA SAN DIEGO, ALANA SEMUELS, STAFF WRITER FOR "THE ATLANTIC," AND STEPHEN MOORE, THE DISTINGUISHED VISITING FELLOW, PROJECT FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH AT THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION.

I WOULD LIKE TO BEGIN BY I GUESS POSING A QUESTION OF SELF-DEFINITION.

IN OTHER WORDS, WHERE DO YOU STAND ON THIS QUESTION OF WORKFORCE COMPOSITION AND WHERE OUR ECONOMY IS HEADING?

WE HAVE OPTIMISTS WHO CLAIM THAT THE MACROECONOMIC TRENDS OF INTERNATIONAL TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE ARE LIFTING HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS FROM POVERTY IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD AND IMPROVING THE QUALITY OF LIFE FOR AMERICANS.

SO TO CITE ONE STATISTIC, 7% OF AMERICANS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE MIDDLE CLASS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDDLE CLASS IN THE LAST 25 YEARS, ONLY 3% HAVE FALLEN OUT OF THE MIDDLE CLASS.

ALL RIGHT, I'D CALL THEM OPTIMISTS.

YOU HAVE THE PESSIMISTS, AND THEY SEEM TO HAVE HIT A NERVE WITH MANY MILLIONS OF VOTERS ACROSS THE INDUSTRIALIZED WORLD WHO ARGUE THAT THE 21st CENTURY HAS BEEN ECONOMICALLY MISERABLE, ESPECIALLY FOR NON-COLLEGE EDUCATED WORKERS, WITH EVERY REASON TO BELIEVE THAT FURTHER AUTOMATION AND COMPETITION FROM LOW-WAGE WORKERS ABROAD AND LOW-WAGE IMMIGRANTS AT HOME WILL REQUIRE SIGNIFICANT POLICY CHANGES.

AND THEN I ADDED MY OWN CATEGORY HERE, AND I WOULD CALL THEM THE FATALISTS-- PEOPLE WHO SEE BENEFIT IN OUR MACROECONOMIC TRENDS AND ARE ALSO LIKE THE OPTIMISTS.

PEOPLE WHO SEE THIS ARISING SPONTANEOUSLY THROUGH OPERATION MARKETS AND SO FORTH, BUT ALSO SEE DESPAIR OVER THE ABILITY OF THE FUTURE ECONOMY TO GENERATE JOBS AND SO FORTH WHICH HAVE BEEN SO CENTRAL, I WOULD SAY, TO OUR IDENTITY AS PEOPLE WHO LIVE IN SOCIETIES FOR SO LONG.

SO WHERE WOULD YOU CLASSIFY YOURSELVES?

YOU KNOW, I'M NOT SO SURE THOSE ARE ALL MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE.

I MEAN, THERE COULD BE SOME TRUTH IN ALL OF THOSE DIFFERENT CATEGORIES.

I WOULD SAY THIS, THAT I ACTUALLY BELIEVE WE'RE MOVING INTO ONE OF THE MOST EXCITING ERAS IN THE HISTORY OF HUMAN CIVILIZATION WITH AMAZING ADVANCES IN TECHNOLOGY THAT ARE GONNA CHANGE THE WORLD IN AMAZING WAYS THAT ARE GONNA LIFT, YOU KNOW, BILLIONS OF PEOPLE OUT OF POVERTY ACROSS THE WORLD.

THIS IS GOING TO BE DISRUPTIVE, SO THERE'S NO QUESTION, DAVID, THAT THEY'RE GONNA BE SOME PEOPLE WHO ARE GOING TO BE NEGATIVELY AFFECTED BY THIS.

I'LL JUST GIVE YOU ONE EXAMPLE.

THE OTHER DAY I WAS-- HAD TO GIVE A SPEECH IN PHILADELPHIA, AND I WAS DRIVING BACK LATE AT NIGHT DOWN I95 SOUTH FROM PHILADELPHIA TO WASHINGTON, AND I WAS IN THE CENTER LANE, IT WAS LATE AT NIGHT, AND I SAW A TRUCK, A CONVOY OF TRUCKS, 5 OF THEM, ALL IN A ROW.

AS I PASSED BY THEM, THEY WERE ALL ONLY ABOUT 5 FEET BEHIND EACH OTHER.

YOU KNOW HOW MANY PEOPLE WERE DRIVING THOSE 5 TRUCKS?

ONE.

THE OTHER 4 WERE ALL AUTOMATED.

AND IN THE NOT TOO DISTANT FUTURE, THERE WILL BE ZERO PEOPLE DRIVING THOSE TRUCKS.

WELL, ONE OUT OF 12 AMERICANS TODAY, MALES, IS EMPLOYED DRIVING A VEHICLE.

A LOT OF THOSE JOBS WON'T EXIST IN 10 YEARS.

SO THAT WILL BE DISRUPTIVE TO PEOPLE IN THE TRUCKING BUSINESS AND TRUCK DRIVERS, BUT IT WILL ALSO DRAMATICALLY REDUCE TRANSPORTATION COSTS, MAKE IT CHEAPER TO GET FOOD AND PRODUCTS TO YOU.

SO THERE'S A POSITIVE SIDE AND A NEGATIVE SIDE, BUT I THINK ON BALANCE IT'LL BE A VERY EXCITING PERIOD AHEAD.

AND HOW POSITIVE.

WE'RE GONNA COME BACK TO THAT, STEVE.

ALANA?

SEMUELS: YEAH, I WOULD TEND TO AGREE.

I THINK THERE'S A LOT OF POTENTIAL HERE FOR PEOPLE WHO HAVE A COLLEGE EDUCATION, FOR PEOPLE WHO HAVE SKILLS IN CREATIVITY, AND YOU'RE SEEING THEM BETTER OFF THAN EVER BEFORE.

YOU KNOW, YOU LOOK AT SILICON VALLEY, YOU LOOK AT THE GUYS WHO FOUNDED GOOGLE, WHO FOUNDED TESLA, WHO FOUNDED A LOT OF THESE OTHER COMPANIES, THEY'RE DOING BETTER THAN EVER.

I THINK YOU ARE GOING TO SEE A GROUP OF PEOPLE WHO ARE REALLY GOING TO STRUGGLE, AND THERE IS TREMENDOUS POTENTIAL FOR THEM AS WELL.

WE HAVEN'T DONE A GOOD JOB SO FAR IN MAKING SURE THAT THEY GET THE EDUCATION AND THE RESOURCES THAT THEY NEED TO BE ABLE TO BENEFIT FROM THESE TREMENDOUS INNOVATIONS LIKE GLOBALIZATION AND AUTOMATION, BUT I THINK THERE'S CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO BENEFIT.

I THINK RIGHT NOW WE'RE MAYBE IN THE DIFFICULT PERIOD WHERE THE PEOPLE WHO HAVE BEEN THRUST OUT OF A JOB BECAUSE OF AUTOMATION OR GLOBALIZATION ARE FINDING IT VERY HARD TO ADAPT.

AND I'M NOT SURE THAT WE'RE EVER GONNA FIND A WAY FOR THEM TO ADAPT, BUT THE YOUNGER PEOPLE THAT ARE COMING UP, THERE IS A LOT OF POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO DO BETTER THAN MAYBE THEY WERE ABLE TO DO IN THE PAST.

REMIND ME TO COME BACK TO THIS QUESTION OF EDUCATION AND WHERE YOU PITCH EDUCATION.

IN OTHER WORDS, IF YOU HAVE A HIGHLY INNOVATIVE ECONOMY, IT SEEMS TO ME THAT THE REALITY OF INNOVATION IS SOMETHING THAT YOU HAVE TO BUILD IN TO EDUCATION AND SOME DEVELOPED SKILLS WHICH ENABLE YOU TO ADAPT, NOT LEARN TECHNOLOGIES, BUT ADAPT TO POTENTIAL FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES.

BUT, ANURAG, WHAT WOULD YOU SAY?

SURE.

I MEAN, I ABSOLUTELY AGREE WITH OUR PANELISTS OVER HERE.

I'D LIKE TO HIGHLIGHT THAT, YOU KNOW, IF YOU GO BACK A HUNDRED YEARS, EVERY 30 OR 40 YEARS, WE'VE HAD A SEAT CHANGE, A SORT OF REVOLUTION, RIGHT.

WE HAD THE INDUSTRIAL-- PRIOR TO THAT WE HAD THE AGRICULTURAL REVOLUTION.

SO IF YOU THINK ABOUT IT, IF I WAS A FARMER, LET'S SAY 1900, AND ONE OF THE ECONOMISTS TELEPORTED DOWN TO MY FARM AND SAID, "HEY, FARMER HARSH, GUESS WHAT.

"40% OF AMERICA IS FEEDING THE ENTIRE COUNTRY, "AND IT'S PREDOMINANTLY AN AGRICULTURAL-BASED ECONOMY.

"BUT GUESS WHAT, 38% OF THOSE GUYS "ARE GONNA NOT HAVE JOBS ANYMORE.

WHY?

BECAUSE HERE'S THIS LITTLE MACHINE CALLED A TRACTOR."

RIGHT, WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED.

AND SO, I, YOU KNOW-- SO WE'RE SITTING HERE, WE'RE TRYING TO FIGURE OUT, WELL, WHAT KIND OF JOBS ARE GONNA BE-- I DON'T KNOW IF I WAS THE FARMER, YOU KNOW, BACK IN 1900, IF I'D BE ABLE TO FIGURE OUT THAT WE'RE GONNA GO-- OH, I GOT THIS.

WE'RE GONNA DO APP DEVELOPMENT AND BITMOJI AND POKEMON GO AND ROBOTIC SURGERY.

IF I HAD THE QUALITY OF LIVING THAT I WANTED BACK IN 1900 OR MAYBE 40 YEARS AGO RIGHT NOW, ALL I HAVE TO DO IS WORK 15 WEEKS IN A YEAR.

SO WHAT HAPPENS IS AS TECHNOLOGY ADVANCES, THERE'S A BOUNTY.

AND WE AS HUMAN BEINGS, IT'S THE GREED AND SATIABILITY OF HUMANS THAT ALLOWS US TO BE ABLE TO CREATE NEW INDUSTRIES, NEW MARKETS.

SO IF YOU THINK ABOUT TO YOUR POINT OF EDUCATION, WHAT HAPPENED WITH THE HIGH SCHOOL MOVEMENT.

THIS IS THE THING THAT A LOT OF PEOPLE DON'T REALIZE IS WE TOOK THE ENTIRE BUNCH OF 38% OF THE UNITED STATES POPULATION, A LOT OF THEM WERE KIDS UNDER THE AGE OF 16, WE PUT THEM IN HIGH SCHOOLS 'CAUSE UP UNTIL THAT POINT, EDUCATION WAS NOT MANDATORY.

AND SO WE REQUIRED THEM TO STAY IN SCHOOLS TO THE RIPE OLD AGE OF 16.

AND WHAT HAPPENED AS A RESULT OF THAT WAS A LABOR FORCE THAT'S UNPRECEDENTED.

ALL THIS CREATIVITY, INNOVATION, THE ABILITY TO THINK OUT OF THE BOX EMANATED FROM THAT.

AND SO I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT THAT, YOU KNOW, WE CONSIDER THE POSITIVE OF EDUCATION AND THE POSITIVE OF WHAT CAME OUT OF A LOT OF THESE EFFORTS.

WHAT'S YOUR VIEW OF IT, LANE?

ARE YOU--WHAT CAMP WOULD YOU PUT YOURSELF IN?

I'M ON BOARD WITH EVERYTHING THAT EVERYONE HAS SAID SO FAR.

I THINK OF MYSELF AS A QUALIFIED OPTIMIST.

AND SINCE THE OPTIMISTIC PART OF THE STORY HAS BEEN, YOU KNOW, WELL EXPRESSED HERE, LET ME JUST MENTION MY 3 QUALIFICATIONS, THE 3 THINGS I WORRY ABOUT.

SO ONE IS THAT IN THE VERY LONG RUN, I DON'T THINK ANYBODY HAS A GREAT IDEA OF HOW FAR AWAY WE ARE FROM THAT, WHEN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE GETS GOOD ENOUGH THAT IT'S ABLE TO DO PRETTY COMPLEX, IN-PERSON SERVICE TYPE TASKS, BASICALLY AS WELL AS HUMANS, THEN, BECAUSE THEY'RE A LOT MORE RELIABLE, THEY DON'T GET SICK, AND THEY'LL BE CHEAPER, THEN WE DO POTENTIALLY FACE A REAL PROBLEM IN TERMS OF ENOUGH JOBS, BUT THEN WE'RE TALKING ABOUT A DIFFERENT SET OF SOCIAL PROGRAMS THAT MIGHT ALLOW US TO LIVE A HAPPY EXISTENCE.

THEY'LL BE A LOT OF GOOD IN THIS, BUT THERE WILL BE AN ISSUE OF A SUFFICIENT NUMBER OF JOBS.

RIGHT NOW IN COMING DECADES, I THINK THE EMPLOYMENT PROBLEM IS LESS AN AGGREGATE EMPLOYMENT PROBLEM THAN THE FACT THAT PARTICULAR PEOPLE WHO LIVE IN CERTAIN AREAS WHERE THERE AREN'T AN ABUNDANCE OF JOBS HAVE GOTTEN HIT REALLY HARD, AND THAT'S GONNA CONTINUE, I THINK.

AND WE HAVEN'T FIGURED OUT A VERY EFFECTIVE WAY TO DEAL WITH THAT.

AND THEN THE THIRD THING WHICH OFTEN DOESN'T GET DISCUSSED AS MUCH IN THE CONTEXT OF JOBS OR AUTOMATION AND TRADE, BUT WHICH I THINK IS THE AREA WHERE THE MOST HARM HAS BEEN DONE OVER THE LAST GENERATION OR SO IS ACTUALLY WAGES.

IT'S NOT SO MUCH THE AVAILABILITY OF JOBS, IT'S THE FACT THAT WHILE THESE THINGS DO BOOST OUR LIVING STANDARDS, THEY'RE GREAT FOR US AS CONSUMERS, AND I THINK IN THE AGGREGATE HAVE PROBABLY BOOSTED THE SHARE OF PEOPLE EMPLOYED, THEY HAVE ALSO BEEN PART OF WHAT'S LED TO FAIRLY STAGNANT WAGES FOR, ROUGHLY SPEAKING, THE BOTTOM HALF OF WORKERS IN THE U.S.

THEY'RE, TOO, WE HAVEN'T FIGURED OUT.

EISENHOWER: YEAH.

WHEN WE TALK ABOUT INNOVATION, WE TALK ABOUT THE FEAR OF DISPLACEMENT, THE FEAR OF INABILITY TO MAKE A LIVING, SO WE'RE REALLY TALKING ABOUT TRENDS, MACROECONOMIC TRENDS, WHICH ARE CREATING A BUYER'S MARKET FOR LABOR.

SO I'LL LAY OUT A QUESTION FOR YOU ALL.

DO YOU KNOW WHAT INDUSTRY OVER THE LAST 10 YEARS CREATED BY FAR THE MOST JOBS?

THE OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY.

NOW, 10 YEARS AGO, NO ONE WOULD HAVE PREDICTED THAT.

EVEN THE PEOPLE IN THE INDUSTRY ITSELF DIDN'T PREDICT IT.

WHAT HAPPENED, WE HAD A SHALE REVOLUTION, AND IT CREATED, YOU KNOW, LITERALLY HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS, IF NOT MILLIONS, OF NEW JOBS.

WELL, 30 OUT OF 100 WORKERS IN 1900 WERE ENGAGED IN AGRICULTURE.

EISENHOWER: RIGHT.

YOU KNOW, 50 YEARS LATER, IT WAS ONLY 3 OUT OF A HUNDRED.

SO YOU WANT TO TALK ABOUT DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY, THE FARM TRACTOR HAD A MAJOR IMPACT ON-- AND GUESS WHAT, OVER THAT TIME PERIOD, WE HAD A DRAMATIC INCREASE OF PRODUCTIVITY, WE SAW HUGE INCREASES IN EMPLOYMENT.

SO FOR PEOPLE WHO ARE WORRIED ABOUT THIS, YOU KNOW, WE HAVE LIVED THROUGH DISRUPTIVE TIMES BEFORE.

NOW, I WANT TO-- THAT LEADS ME TO AN INEVITABLE QUESTION FOR THE PEOPLE WHO ARE WORRIED ABOUT THIS.

PUBLIC POLICY MUST HAVE A ROLE HERE IN BRINGING ABOUT A WORLD THAT WE WANT AND IN MITIGATING THE CONSEQUENCES THAT WE SEE ARE ADVERSE OR DISPLACEMENT AND SO FORTH.

I WOULD SAY IF RECENT ELECTIONS HAVE HIGHLIGHTED ANYTHING, IT'S THAT THERE ARE CERTAIN PROBLEMS WHICH THE SPONTANEOUS OPERATIONS OF FREE MARKETS ARE NOT GOING TO RESOLVE.

SO NOW WHAT ARE THOSE PROBLEMS AND WHERE DOES THE PUBLIC SECTOR COME IN?

WE'VE HAD A CONSENSUS OVER THE YEARS THAT THE LESS PUBLIC SECTOR, THE BETTER, BUT IT APPEARS TO BE REENTERING IN SOME WAY.

YEAH.

I MEAN, I THINK-- I HATE TO BE KIND OF, YOU KNOW, REPEATING THE SAME THING OVER AND OVER, BUT I BELIEVE EDUCATION.

AND IT'S NOT JUST, YOU KNOW, APPRENTICESHIPS OR COLLEGES OR TWO-YEAR COLLEGES.

IT'S BEGINNING OF THE VERY FOUNDATION, K-12 EDUCATION, AND MAKING SURE THAT PEOPLE-- YOU KNOW, EVEN PRE-K-- AND MAKING SURE THAT PEOPLE WHO GRADUATE FROM HIGH SCHOOL ARE ABLE TO GO INTO WHATEVER'S NEEDED AT THE TIME AND HAVE THE SKILLS TO BECOME A WELDER IF THAT'S WHAT THEY WANT TO DO OR NEED TO DO, OR HAVE THE SKILLS TO GO ON AND INVENT A NEW COMPANY AND, YOU KNOW, MOVE TO SILICON VALLEY.

AND I THINK THAT'S REALLY WHERE WE'RE LACKING, AND I THINK WE HAVEN'T REALLY TALKED ABOUT THIS BECAUSE IT'S VERY TANGENTIAL TO THE DISCUSSION, BUT SEGREGATION AND HOW DIFFERENT GROUPS OF PEOPLE ARE REALLY, YOU KNOW, DOING BETTER IN THE ECONOMY.

IF YOU LOOK AT CITIES OR KIND OF EDUCATED PEOPLE IN CITIES VS. PEOPLE IN RURAL AREAS WHO MAYBE AREN'T ABLE TO MOVE ON.

AND I THINK IT REALLY GOES BACK TO THE FOUNDATIONS OF THINGS LIKE EDUCATION, THINGS LIKE SEGREGATION AND HOUSING TO MAKE SURE THAT EVERYONE HAS AN EQUAL OPPORTUNITY TO GET THAT EDUCATION THAT THEY NEED, WHICH I THINK IS GONNA BE THE MOST CRITICAL PART OF THE NEXT 20 OR 25 YEARS.

YOU'RE GONNA NEED TO BE ABLE TO ADAPT.

ON EDUCATION-- I DON'T WANT TO DOMINATE THIS, BUT I'LL SAY THIS.

I THINK THE MOST IMPORTANT THING IN EDUCATION GOING FORWARD IS CHOICE, CHOICE FOR PARENTS TO CHOOSE THE RIGHT SCHOOLS FOR THEIR KIDS.

THIS IDEA--YOU KNOW, WE'RE EDUCATING KIDS TODAY NOT THAT MUCH DIFFERENTLY THAN WE DID 50, 100 YEARS AGO.

GIVEN WHAT YOU SAID, WHICH I AGREE WITH, YOU KNOW, SOME KIDS ARE GONNA HAVE TALENTS IN MUSIC, SOME IN MATHEMATICS, SOME IN SCIENCES.

YOU KNOW, LET KIDS-- I HAVE 3 SONS.

THEY ALL HAVE COMPLETELY DIFFERENT INTERESTS AND TALENTS.

THIS IDEA THAT THEY SHOULD ALL GO TO THE SAME SCHOOLS, ALL LEARN THE SAME THINGS IS SO OUTMODED.

YOU KNOW, SCHOOLS SHOULD BE TAILORED TO THE INTERESTS AND THE TALENTS OF EVERY INDIVIDUAL STUDENT, AND OUR PUBLIC EDUCATION SYSTEM DOES A POOR JOB OF THAT.

HARSH: I'D LIKE TO ADD TO THAT.

I THINK THAT IF YOU ACTUALLY SORT OF LOOK AT THE GERMAN MODEL WHERE A LOT OF THE INDUSTRIES ARE ACTUALLY PARTICIPATING IN APPRENTICESHIPS AND PICKING UP, YOU KNOW, THESE SORT OF DISPLACED WORKERS AND TEACHING THEM SORT OF JOBS OF THE FUTURE OR JOBS THAT THEY NEED WORKERS FOR AND PAYING THEM FOR THE TIME THAT THEY ACTUALLY DON'T HAVE AN INCOME, THAT'S A VERY BIG DEAL.

SO WE CAN'T JUST SAY THAT, YOU KNOW, THE GOVERNMENT NEEDS TO DO THIS.

I THINK THE INDUSTRY, PRIVATE SECTOR, IN PARTICULAR TECH, WHICH IS SORT OF ONE OF THE, YOU KNOW, THE PRIME, YOU KNOW, OFFENDENTS AS FAR AS DISPLACING THESE JOBS IS CONCERNED, ALL THESE AUTOMATIONS.

A LOT OF THE TECH COMPANIES, I THINK, NEED TO START THINKING ABOUT TRAINING, BECAUSE THEY KIND OF HAVE A SENSE OF, YOU KNOW, WHAT THEY'RE INVESTING IN.

THEY GOT A LOT OF, YOU KNOW, DEEP COFFERS.

THEY'RE INVESTING IN, LET'S SAY VIRTUAL REALITY OR WHATEVER IT IS, AND THEY NEED TO, YOU KNOW, TAKE SOME OF THESE PEOPLE AND TRAIN THEM FOR THESE JOBS AND ACTUALLY PAY THEM.

AND I THINK AS A WHOLE, IT'S GONNA--THAT'S GONNA HELP WITH A LOT OF THINGS.

IT'S GONNA HELP WITH THE SO CALLED IMMIGRATION PROBLEM WHERE THE PEOPLE ARE THINKING THEY DON'T HAVE JOBS AND, YOU KNOW, LOW-PAID WORKERS ARE COMING FROM ACROSS THE BORDER OR WHEREVER ELSE AND TAKING THOSE JOBS OR AUTOMATION IS TAKING THOSE JOBS.

BUT IN THIS WAY, NOW THEY'RE ACTUALLY GOING TO BE TRAINED IN SOME OF THESE NEW ARTS AND DISCIPLINES TO BE ABLE TO HANDLE THEM, AND THEY'RE ACTUALLY GONNA GET PAID A NOMINAL WAGE WHILE THEY'RE GETTING TRAINED.

I ACTUALLY WANT TO SAY, SO I FULLY EMBRACE THE EMPHASIS ON EDUCATION.

I THINK IT'S THE RIGHT THING TO DO, EVEN IF IT DOESN'T WORK, EVEN IF IT DOESN'T SOLVE THE PROBLEMS OF EMPLOYMENT OR WAGES OR ANYTHING ELSE, BECAUSE EDUCATION'S GOOD FOR PEOPLE, ASSUMING IT'S DONE EFFECTIVELY, AND IT DOESN'T ALWAYS.

AND SO, YES, THERE'S A BIG DEBATE ABOUT EXACTLY HOW WE CAN MAKE EDUCATION BETTER, BUT WHAT I WANT TO EMPHASIZE IS THAT EDUCATION'S NOT A PANACEA.

IT'S NOT GOING TO SOLVE THE PROBLEM OF THE SMALL CITY OR TOWN WHERE THE ONE REMAINING MANUFACTURING PLANT CLOSES UP OR MOVES OUT, AND THAT THEN HAS RIPPLE EFFECT.

SO IDEALLY, OR AT LEAST IN THEORY OR IN PRINCIPLE, PEOPLE COULD GET A JOB IN THE SERVICE INDUSTRY, AND THE WORST CASE, THEY COULD BE A GREETER AT WALMART AND AT LEAST THEY HAVE A JOB, YES.

THE PAY IS LESS.

BUT THE RIPPLE EFFECT IT TURNS OUT, WE KNOW FROM SOME RECENT RESEARCH, IS SUCH SOMETIMES THAT EVEN WALMART IS NOT GOING TO HIRE THESE PEOPLE AT THESE VERY LOW-LEVEL JOBS BECAUSE DEMAND IN THE LOCAL ECONOMY IS DEPRESSED SO MUCH WHEN ALL THESE MIDDLE-CLASS WAGES DISAPPEAR.

SO THIS IS A BIG PROBLEM.

WE HAVEN'T YET FIGURED OUT HOW TO DEAL WITH IT.

MY OWN PREFERENCE, I'M NOT SURE IT'S A REAL SOLUTION, BUT I'M IN FAVOR OF A JOB GUARANTEE, ALTHOUGH NOT A PLACE GUARANTEE.

I DON'T THINK WE NECESSARILY SHOULD MAKE A PUBLIC SECTOR COMMITMENT OR A GOVERNMENT COMMITMENT OR A COUNTRYWIDE COMMITMENT TO SAVE EVERY PLACE IN THE COUNTRY.

EISENHOWER: WELL, WHO MAKES THE COMMITMENT THEN?

WELL, IT'S A DECISION FOR LOCAL OR REGIONAL OR NATIONAL POLICYMAKERS.

IT'S NOT AN EASY THING TO DO.

ANYWAY, THIS IS A SUGGESTION, BUT LET ME--LET ME EMPHASIZE ONE OTHER THING, AND THAT'S TO COME BACK TO A POINT I MADE EARLIER, WHICH IS THAT I THINK THE BIGGEST PROBLEM, WHICH WE'RE NOT REALLY DISCUSSING SO MUCH HERE, ALTHOUGH IT'S BEEN BROUGHT UP A FEW TIMES, IS WAGES.

I DON'T THINK WE HAVE A HUGE EMPLOYMENT PROBLEM IN THE UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT COMING COUPLE OF DECADES, PROBABLY EVEN THE NEXT HALF CENTURY.

WE DO HAVE A PLACE-SPECIFIC EMPLOYMENT PROBLEM, BUT WE HAVE A COUNTRYWIDE WAGE PROBLEM FOR PEOPLE IN THE MIDDLE AND BELOW.

I HAVE ANOTHER, IN A SENSE IS A KIND OF CONCLUDING QUESTION.

AND THIS--I DON'T HAVE A BETTER WAY OF PUTTING IT.

I WOULD SAY THE EXPORTABILITY OF THIS ECONOMY THAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT RIGHT NOW.

IN 2040, I THINK THAT WE CAN FORESEE THAT AMERICA IS GOING TO BE AN EXCITING PLACE TO LIVE IN.

WE'RE GONNA HAVE ALL KINDS OF OPPORTUNITIES AND CONVENIENCES THAT WE CAN ONLY DIMLY FORESEE AS WE SIT HERE, AND OUR PRIVATE SECTOR IS GOING TO DELIVER THAT, BUT WE'RE LIVING IN A WORLD WHICH IS GOING TO HAVE TWO OR THREE BILLION ADDITIONAL PEOPLE BY THEN, AND WE ARE INEXTRICABLY LINKED NOW TO THAT WORLD.

I THINK EVERYBODY AGREES WITH THAT.

WE ARE LIVING IN AN INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM.

IS OUR PROSPERITY GOING TO BE A RARIFIED THING OR IS THIS GOING TO BE SOMETHING THAT IS EXPORTABLE TO THE WORLD?

AND BEFORE I TOSS THIS OPEN, AS A READER OF PRESIDENTIAL SPEECHES, I'M FASCINATED BY ULYSSES GRANT'S INAUGURAL IN 1873, 1873, 8 YEARS AFTER THE AMERICAN CIVIL WAR, WHERE HE FORESAW A WORLD OF NO BORDERS, NO ARMIES, NO FLAGS, NO WARS.

MOORE: OF COURSE HE GOT THAT WRONG.

WELL, NO, BUT I'M SAYING TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION.

IN OTHER WORDS, THIS TREND HAS BEEN INEXORABLE FOR A LONG TIME.

BUT WHAT IS THIS WORLD GOING TO LOOK LIKE, BECAUSE WE'RE NOW GOING TO BE PART OF IT?

ARE WE GOING TO BE IN A GATED COMMUNITY, AMERICA, OR IS THIS SOMETHING THAT--IS THIS A KIND OF PROSPERITY THAT IS GOING TO LIFT THE WORLD OUT OF-- LOOK, IT'S ALREADY LIFTING.

I MEAN, THE FACT OF THE MATTER IS THAT WE'RE--BILL GATES TALKS ABOUT TILL, YOU KNOW, THE COWS COME HOME, AND HE'S--THE POVERTY IS REDUCING IN THE WORLD.

THERE ARE A LOT OF COUNTRIES, SCORES OF COUNTRIES, WHERE THEY'VE LITERALLY COME OUT OF POVERTY.

SO PROSPERITY WORLDWIDE IS GOING UP.

EISENHOWER: NOW, HOW ARE THEY DOING THAT?

THAT'S REDUCING.

NOW, IN TERMS OF OPEN BORDERS AND, YOU KNOW, THINGS OF THAT NATURE, WHAT'S INTERESTING IS TECHNOLOGY-- IT'S THE ERA OF THE SOLOPRENEUR.

EVEN IN AMERICA, A LOT OF THE PEOPLE ARE WORKING FOR THEMSELVES BECAUSE THEY CAN WORK REMOTELY.

NOW WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT IT, LET'S SAY YOU WANT TO HIRE A DESIGNER TO, YOU KNOW, CREATE AN AD OR SOMETHING.

YOU GO TO UPWORK, USED TO BE ELANCE.COM.

YOU'D BE AMAZED AS TO THE MILLIONS OF PEOPLE WHO ARE ACTUALLY PROVIDING THEIR SERVICES AT U.S. DOLLAR RATES, AND ALMOST AT-- IT USED TO BE $5.00 AN HOUR, NOW IT'S GONE UP TO 40 OR $50 AN HOUR.

YOU ACTUALLY LOOK AT WHERE THE PERSON IS LOCATED, IT COULD BE INDONESIA.

IT COULD BE IN PAKISTAN.

IT COULD BE ANYWHERE.

AND SO OFTENTIMES, IT'S LIKE, WOW.

I MEAN.

AND IT'S NOT JUST THAT.

YOU CAN HIRE CPAs WHO ARE ACTUALLY GONNA DO YOUR TAXES WHO ARE OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES.

THE ONLY THING IS THEY CAN'T LEGALLY OFFICIALLY DO IT, BUT THEY'LL STILL BE ABLE TO PROVIDE YOU ADVICE.

THAT'S NOT GONNA CHANGE.

THAT'S ACTUALLY GONNA GET-- SO IN A MARKET WHERE TECHNOLOGY'S ENABLING PEOPLE FROM AROUND THE WORLD TO GET PAID USING VENMO AND PAYPAL AND OTHER ELECTRONIC PAYMENT SYSTEMS THAT EASILY-- SO IN NATIONAL AND TRANSNATIONAL TERMS, YOU'RE AN OPTIMIST.

AND YOU ARE...

VERY MUCH AN OPTIMIST.

OPTIMIST.

I WOULD JUST WORRY-- YOU KNOW, WE DON'T WANT TO SEE A GLOBAL ELITE WHO IS ABLE TO KIND OF PROSPER FROM THIS AND LEAVE THE REST OF-- THE PEOPLE WITHOUT THE EDUCATION, THE PEOPLE WHO ARE BEING REPLACED BY ROBOTS, OR COMPETING WITH PEOPLE IN OTHER COUNTRIES, WE DON'T WANT TO LEAVE THEM BEHIND.

SO THERE'S ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT, I THINK, IN MAKING SURE EVERYBODY PROSPERS FROM THESE TRENDS.

OPTIMIST FOR SURE.

I MEAN, LOOK, THIS IS-- I ALWAYS TELL COLLEGE STUDENTS, YOU KNOW, THIS IS THE SINGLE GREATEST TIME IN THE HISTORY OF MANKIND EVER TO BE ALIVE.

THE ONLY BETTER TIME WILL BE 20 OR 30 OR 40 YEARS FROM NOW.

THINGS ARE GETTING-- INCREASINGLY ARE GETTING BETTER ALL THE TIME.

WITH VERY EXCITING PUBLIC CHALLENGES-- PUBLIC AND PRIVATE CHALLENGES THAT LIE AHEAD, THAT WE PROVE EQUAL TO THE GREAT OPPORTUNITIES THAT LIE AHEAD.

I TRULY APPRECIATE THIS.

ANURAG, LANE, ALANA, STEPHEN, THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR BEING ON "THE WHOLE TRUTH."

MOORE: THANK YOU.

SEMUELS: THANKS FOR HAVING US.

THE MAJOR ECONOMIC TRENDS OF OUR TIME, GLOBALIZATION, AND HIGH TECHNOLOGY AUTOMATION HAVE IMPROVED THE MATERIAL QUALITY OF LIFE FOR PERHAPS A MAJORITY OF AMERICANS AND HAVE DEFINITELY IMPROVED THE QUALITY OF LIFE FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT MASS OF HUMANITY LIVING IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD.

BUT IF THE HIGHLY CONTENTIOUS ELECTION OF 2016 DID ONE POSITIVE THING, THAT WOULD BE TO MAKE ALL AMERICANS UNDERSTAND THAT AMONG THE CONSEQUENCES HAVE BEEN PRESSURE ON OUR MIDDLE CLASS, AND THAT APPROXIMATELY A THIRD OF OUR PEOPLE, IT WOULD SEEM, FACE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT LIVES AND DIMINISHED ACCESS TO OPPORTUNITY.

SO FAR IN THE 21st CENTURY, LABOR FORCE TRENDS IN THE UNITED STATES HAVE BEEN BLEAK.

WORK RATES HAVE FALLEN DRAMATICALLY SINCE THE YEAR 2000 AND ARE NOW AT THEIR LOWEST LEVEL IN DECADES.

POST-WAR AMERICA HAS NEVER EXPERIENCED ANYTHING COMPARABLE TO THIS, AND SOME HAVE TAKEN TO CALLING IT THE COLLAPSE OF WORK, WHICH CAN'T BE EXPLAINED BY AN AGING POPULATION, INCREASED NUMBERS OF AMERICANS ENROLLED IN SCHOOL, OR ANY OTHER STATISTICAL ANOMALY.

AND WHAT OF FUTURE TRENDS?

EVEN WITH PROTECTIONISM AND MUCH STRICTER IMMIGRATION POLICIES IN THE AIR, CAN A MORE WIDELY SHARED AMERICAN PROSPERITY REALLY BE PURCHASED WITH SUCH DEFENSIVE POLICIES?

AND WON'T EVERYTHING ELSE IN THE LABOR MARKET TRENDS BE OVERWHELMED BY THE EXPLOSIVE CAPABILITIES OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND ROBOTS?

IT SEEMS TO ME THAT THE WHOLE TRUTH IS THAT AMERICANS WILL NOT ACCEPT FATALISM ON THESE QUESTIONS OR EVER-INCREASING INCOME AND OPPORTUNITY GAPS.

ADDRESSING THE WORKFORCE CHALLENGE EFFECTIVELY AND FAIRLY WILL ABSORB OUR POLITICAL ENERGIES FOR DECADES TO COME.

FOR "THE WHOLE TRUTH," I'M DAVID EISENHOWER.

THANK YOU FOR WATCHING.

ANNOUNCER: THIS EPISODE OF "THE WHOLE TRUTH" WAS MADE POSSIBLE BY THE MILL SPRING FOUNDATION, THE DORAN FAMILY FOUNDATION, AMETEK, AND BY... AND BY CONTRIBUTIONS TO YOUR PBS STATION FROM VIEWERS LIKE YOU.

THANK YOU.