♪♪♪ male announcer: Funding for "The Hinckley Report" is made possible in part by Merit Medical and by contributions to PBS Utah from viewers like you.

Thank you.

Jason Perry: Tonight on "The Hinckley Report," as final votes are counted, our experts weigh in on who won and why.

What does turnout in the state and across the nation tell us about the motivations and priorities of voters?

And as leadership in the Trump administration begins to take shape, which Utahns may have a prominent role?

♪♪♪ ♪♪♪ Jason: Good evening and welcome to "The Hinckley Report."

I'm Jason Perry, Director of the Hinckley Institute of Politics.

Covering the week, we have Republican Senator Mike McKell, Assistant Majority Whip representing Utah County in the State Senate; Democratic Senator, Jen Plumb, Assistant Minority Whip representing Salt Lake City in the State Senate; and Daniel Woodruff reporter with KSL5 News.

Thank you so much for being with us.

We're starting to get the final look at the numbers coming in from the elections.

You know, we'll have the final numbers soon, but I want to talk about what happened on the national level, but mostly I wanna get to what's happening in the state of Utah because we're starting to see those numbers more clearly.

Of course, we know Donald Trump won the electoral college and the popular vote around the country.

But let's talk about where he leads in Utah first with you, Senator McKell, Trump leads with 59%.

Kamala Harris at 38%.

Now, these are fairly consistent numbers with what we have seen those parties do in the state of Utah.

Mike McKell: Yeah, and I do think there--one thing that is interesting is he has gone up over the last four years.

Those--his numbers four years ago were a little bit lower.

He has gone up.

I think he performed very well in the state of Utah.

I think that's something that we expected to see.

We expected to see Donald Trump win and he did.

He's got a lot of strong support here in the state of Utah.

Obviously, we have a lot of Republicans in the state of Utah.

So, it wasn't a surprise to me or anybody else that he did perform as well as he did.

Jason: But Senator Plumb, what's interesting is Republicans tend, they gained in all the counties in Utah, except this is from 2020 except for two: Utah County and Washington County, two counties that took a little bit of a step to the left, not to the right.

Jen Plumb: Interesting, isn't it, and these aren't necessarily things I think any of us would have predicted.

Although I suppose folks real close on the ground might have, but I think it is indicative of some population shifts that are happening as well as, you know, who's moving in, who's moving out, and some shifts too in what priorities are.

And I think, you know, from the spaces I exist, everywhere I travel around the state, I visit a lot of different counties.

I do hear more folks that are perhaps either becoming more centrist or more in line with the ideals that I've kind of accustomed myself to be.

So, I think Utah is in an interesting period and for me, the conversations just need to keep happening.

The polarity doesn't help any of us.

The conversations need to just keep happening.

Jason: Yeah, Daniel, some of this gets to sort of the priorities of the voters, where people thought was most important versus maybe what was messaged a little bit as being most important.

I wanna show a graphic.

Can you give us some thoughts about this?

Particularly given the interviews that you've done, you talked to people all over the state of Utah.

Put through the Utah lens these national priorities.

I just wanna mention them really quickly here.

The top five priorities as listed by Republicans were the economy, immigration, terrorism- national security, crime, and taxes as opposed to the Democrats, which was, this is at least on the national stage; democracy, the Supreme Court, abortion, health care, education.

One thing that's interesting about this to me is there is no overlap.

There's no one item that is the same on both those lists.

Talk about that.

Daniel Woodruff: And I think we heard over and over, especially the Republican concerns of the economy and immigration.

They pushed those so hard.

And after, and I'm speaking after the votes have been cast, so much of the reaction I've seen and heard from is voters saying they felt like their economic concerns had not been heard by the Biden administration and they were looking for change in the Trump administration.

And I'm not at all surprised that economy and immigration were the top two for Republicans.

But on the Democratic side, you heard so much talk about January 6th, about President Trump.

Is he going to accept the results of the election?

Are we going to have another event like what we saw at the Capitol?

And so, I think those concerns were there.

But ultimately, I think the economy and immigration won the day in this race in a big way.

Jason: Go ahead, Senator.

Mike: Well, and I absolutely agree with that.

As I've met with constituents across the state, especially in my district.

The economy was an issue that--I looked at the stock market has done great.

The businesses have done great, but people still feel the impact at the grocery store.

They feel that when they're buying their groceries, they felt the impact of inflation, real people on the ground had real impact.

And you look at the issue with immigration, this is an issue where there's just been a failure in Washington DC to fix that issue.

And unfortunately for the Democrats, President Biden was in the White House and that's an issue.

It's been a very contentious issue, but a lot of blame goes to the top and that immigration issue.

And I really feel like that inflation really had a huge impact on the election.

Daniel: And can I say too, there was some interesting reporting from NBC News showing certain counties in the United States that swung right and they were all counties that had tremendous impact from the housing crisis.

Housing costs had gone up exponentially in those counties and people in those counties wanting to afford a home felt like the only way to have any hope was to vote red.

And so, it's just interesting, interesting to see the different types too of economic concerns, not just what we're paying for at the grocery store, but can our kids afford a house?

Can I afford a house?

Things like that really showed up in the polls and in very certain areas that swung in the direction of former President Trump.

Jen: But it is interesting, if you look at those priorities and then therefore, you know, where the voters are gonna vote.

To me, I have difficulty with the spin that was put on a lot of these issues.

I mean, yeah, you're right, the stock market has been doing better--the bond market not so much.

So, there isn't just this, "Yay, let's go.

We got a new president.

Everything's gonna be fabulous."

I really struggled with, you know, for example, to talk about the cost of eggs.

Okay, so, yes, the cost of eggs is up but there's also been an avian flu outbreak.

So, there's this challenge for me of what propaganda type pieces are being put out there to terrify voters.

And I do feel like during this last election cycle, and I'm not gonna necessarily say it was just one party over another because we get fear in people and then people gravitate towards that and that becomes their biggest issue.

But how much of that is the true reality of what is going to happen with any given leader or any given party?

And that's something that really bothers me in politics because I think that we don't give the voters credit for their ability to reason things out and instead we just give them terror pieces sometimes.

And that's something I think I'd like to see change.

Jason: So, Senator to this issue that she--that Senator Plumb has brought up about like the cost of eggs, for example, because that was one of the interesting points within these priorities is the economy has not been terrible.

You know, people are making more, you know, by on average more money than they were making a few years ago.

But it's that other side that inflation say I may make me more money, but it's costing more money.

Tell me how that played when maybe people would put that above other priorities.

Mike: Let me give you an example.

I had a constituent reach out to me in my office recently, somebody had moved in, moved to Utah from Oregon, somebody who was a Democrat.

And it was interesting.

We started talking about the election and she told me that she voted for every Democrat down ticket, including my own race.

And I felt a little bad.

She didn't know me but she voted for every Democrat down ticket.

Somebody in South Utah County except she voted for Donald Trump.

And I thought it was interesting and I asked her, I said, well, "Why did you vote for Donald Trump, but you voted for all the Democrats down ticket?"

And she just, she said, "I felt like he's fighting for the ordinary person."

And you saw this week AOC in Congress, she made some statements that were similar to that.

She questioned why there was this switch on the top of the ticket with President Trump and his message just resonated to ordinary people just differently than the message that Kamala Harris had.

Jen: I kind of have to agree with you on that.

I feel like the average everyday person did not feel heard by, at least for many of the folks that I've talked to by the Democratic Party or by the Democratic ticket.

And that's something that's really challenging for those of us who were within the party and feel like we really do want folks to feel heard and do want their biggest concerns to be represented by what the policy we champion is, or the politics that we kind of herald is.

So, that's some work we've got to do within our party.

Daniel: And you've got the post mortem going on right now and Bernie Sanders saying the Democratic Party had lost its way and needs to recalibrate its message to try to recapture some of those working class voters again.

Jason: What are you hearing from those Democrats?

Because Bernie has been very vocal about it.

Other Democrats are starting to be that way.

Jen: You know, I think there's still a decent amount of shock and there's also a decent amount of fear.

I think seeing that that very top priority was concerns about maintenance of democracy.

And, you know, I even think back to what we learned is in elementary school, you know, a nation divided cannot stand and there's a lot of us that I think within my party and within, you know, my district that are really worried about that potential.

But I am starting to, I think, see some of the light bulbs go off about, "Oh, maybe that didn't land so well."

Or, "Oh, maybe that wasn't the biggest overarching picture for everyone.

My biggest issue may not have been everyone's biggest issue."

So, I think we still got some time to go.

I think the wounds are still pretty fresh.

So, it's gonna take some time.

I don't know if you're hearing anything more specific.

Daniel: Not beyond that.

Jason: Yeah, we'll watch that closely, I want to get into a couple of things that sort of the ramifications of the Trump win is he gets to make a lot of appointments.

He gets to set his cabinet, the people are going to run these agencies, and it's been an interesting week.

I want to talk about some Utahns first because we had some, Senator McKell who are also on that list.

So, first let's--Mike Lee was stated as somewhat potentially, up for AG.

Maybe give us that dynamic because someone else was put, but are we-- Mike: I don't think Mike Lee is out of the game.

The insiders I talked to in DC, most of them don't think that Matt Gaetz has a legitimate shot of being confirmed by the Senate.

And in that scenario Mike Lee would have a shot.

I would say it's too early.

It's too early to know whether or not Mike Lee would be appointed as Attorney General.

But I do think it's a long shot for Matt Gaetz to be actually confirmed by the US Senate, and I think that that is pretty common knowledge in DC.

So, it'll be interesting to watch.

I think you've got some other names.

I don't wanna start a rumor if Mike Schultz is watching, the Speaker of the House, Speaker of the House is close to the Trump administration.

I don't think--I don't think Mike Schultz in my conversations with him wants to be part of the Trump administration.

I think he loves serving in the legislature.

I think he does--I think he does a great job, but he's somebody that certainly could get a nod from the administration.

And obviously you've got Chris Stewart who's done a great job, who's got a skill set that's entirely unique with National Defense and Security.

I would want Chris Stewart on my short list, certainly.

Jason: Yeah, so, Daniel, it's interesting.

We do have several Utahns are on these lists which we have historical, you know, experience with prominent Utahns being on the list on both sides of the aisle.

Daniel: You do and we've had some go on to serve in presidential cabinets.

Mike Levitt being one, he's--was in George W. Bush's cabinet, but I have to agree with Senator McKell in that there's still a lot of time ahead.

These nominees are coming out pretty fast and furious and there's a lot of reaction in the very beginning about them.

But as things shake out, particularly, I think with Matt Gaetz, it'll be interesting to see what happens.

For the record, Senator Mike Lee has said he's happy with the job he has.

He put out that statement this week and said he likes to be in the Senate and wants to be there to forward the agenda of the Trump administration when it comes into office.

Jen: I hope if it's okay to say that there becomes a little more seriousness about some of these nominees.

I mean, I think the world I live in, in science, and in medicine, and in the political world as well.

You hope for someone to have skills, for someone to have experience, for someone to have what it takes, right?

The good, the right stuff for it.

And so, I do feel there are some decent concerns about nominees that have come out that are, that are not qualified for the positions they've been nominated for.

I don't understand why Tulsi Gabbard was--I think from my perspective, I really do hope there's more seriousness because these are big deal jobs.

Jason: Senator McKell, so it's interesting because the, you know, the Republicans had the House, they had the Senate, but on the Senate confirmations it's a majority but not one that you can necessarily just take for granted.

Mike: It's tight, I mean, I think the majority, I think when the dust settles, I think Republicans are gonna have 53 in the Senate.

There are already a number of Republicans that are signaling some of those concerns and I, this is where I agree with Senator Plumb.

I think there is a level of seriousness we need with some of these nominees.

And I think that's where there's going to be a struggle with a Matt Gaetz.

I mean, he's an individual who's never actually practiced law.

He's never had a judgeship.

He's never been that type of role.

And I think that that's gonna be a concern and he's also been a thorn in the side of Congress in general, but I do look at some of the names.

I'm excited about Marco Rubio, obviously, Marco Rubio has strong ties to Utah and our Utah delegation and I thought that was a good pick for Secretary of State, and I'm excited to see what that looks like, but I do think, I do think, Senator Plumb is right.

I think there's a level of seriousness that we need to have with some of these appointments.

And I think some of the concerns are certainly legitimate.

Daniel: And if I could add, Jason, that under this or over it, I guess the umbrella of the Senate has the power to confirm these nominees.

President Trump has talked about wanting the power to appoint by what's called recess appointment if the Senate were to adjourn.

And that's been controversial and it's interesting to hear different senators react to that.

Just last night, we reported Senator-elect John Curtis is against that.

He wants the Senate to have the power and the right to confirm or reject the nominees of the president elect.

Jason: Maybe you ought to break that down just a little more because it's very interesting.

President Trump has a trifecta here, the White House, the Senate, and the House, but still people are talking about recess appointments and what do you really make of that?

Because I know the Senate had an immediate reaction.

Daniel: Well, I mean, he talked about wanting the ability to put people in immediately.

President Trump on social media said he felt like last time he was president that the votes took too long.

But that is a constitutional part of our Republic is to have the Senate confirm.

However, it is also a constitutional tool to allow the Senate to adjourn and the president can make these appointments in absence of that.

But again, certain senators including our own Senator-elect John Curtis, certain senators have pushed back against that saying they want the right to say yay or nay to President Trump's nominees.

Jen: Going back to the Democrats being most concerned about democracy.

This is an example of that, right?

There are checks and balances in place.

I--you know, even on a much smaller scale here in Utah, I don't think any of us would feel great if something like that happened.

Yeah, not that it necessarily could, but that concept of the checks and balances being taken out is not in support of democracy.

Mike: And I'm gonna just add to that, Congress needs to do its job.

One of my frustrations with Democrats in the White House or Republicans in the White House, we've given too much power to the president.

Congress needs to do its job and we had a Supreme Court decision, this Chevron Deference which is gonna change things.

But I would like for me in a perfect world.

One of the things I'd like to see from this new Republican admin--this new Republican Congress is, I'd like to see Congress be much, much more assertive.

I've got a relationship with the governor here in Utah, but I'll tell you what we're gonna fight for--we're gonna fight for the legislative branch and what happens in the legislature stays in the legislature, and having that legislative branch as a check, especially in a scenario where we have all three branches.

I think it's incredibly important and I don't think you can understate the necessity of having those appropriate checks and balances with Congress and the executive branch.

Jason: One of the checks we have also is the vote of the people.

And so, Senator Plumb, I want to talk about this for just a moment.

Turnout as it relates to the state of Utah nationwide seems like we may be getting near record turnouts, but it was not the case necessarily in Utah.

We're currently ranked the 37th state in terms of our turnout.

Thoughts about why that might be the case.

Jen: You know, I think this election in particular, there was a lot of kind of meh on both sides from both parties, right?

There was nobody felt like this was 100% their candidate.

And there were concerns on either side which led to a lot of folks even leading up to the last week.

I couldn't believe we still had as many undecided voters as we did.

They couldn't quite make that step over the, "This is the box I'm going to check."

I also think, you know, some of it is that is fundamental lack of faith in, "Does my vote mean anything?"

Which our vote is our voice.

I think that we really should exercise it.

There's so many countries and places around the world that would give anything to have the amount of say that we have in our government.

But there's, I think there's a general kind of just not a great feeling from a lot of the constituency that at least that's what I see reflected.

And we got work to do on that.

Jason: Daniel, as you interviewed people throughout the state, one of the things that came up a little bit was sort of the trust in elections.

You know, a lot of people in Utah really love the mail-in ballots, which makes it so easy.

But your conversations with people about that, how that was very easy yet, lower turnout.

Daniel: Yeah, I mean, it's interesting to me.

I think when I talked to the Lieutenant Governor's office, they said ballot initiatives and candidates obviously drive turnout.

And in Utah, we didn't really have any local races that were in question.

And even in the presidential race, we knew Donald Trump was going to win.

The question was by how much?

Speaking of the electoral votes that Utah has.

I think Jason, when in 2020 what was it, 90% voter turnout?

And here we're at about what, 80%?

I have to wonder what effect the pandemic had on that.

Everyone was sitting at home, we voted by mail, it's sitting on your counter.

We're gonna do something.

We're gonna binge watch Netflix and we're gonna vote, right?

And I think it is different, it is--it was a different dynamic this time that we're back to normal.

And we didn't have quite that turnout.

But remember back then, we were in the throes of the COVID-19.

Jason: And a couple of things that gets to the next point.

Also, we went through some redistricting since then, which changed the boundaries a little bit, which gets to another point which is interesting.

The Kempsey Gardner Policy Institute this week issued some projections about the state of Utah.

And they're saying by the 2030 census, we may have enough people to get a fifth congressional seat.

Mike: I think that's exciting news and I think it's going to happen.

I mean, for me, for the state.

I just think it's exciting, we need to do everything we can to make sure that that happens.

I know in the past we, you know, if those numbers are tight, we need to make sure we count our, our folks that are serving abroad.

We need to count our missionaries that are serving abroad.

But I think as a state that's exciting news.

I think it's gonna happen.

Jen: I think it's gonna be interesting too with what happens with the redistrict for Congress.

No, no, no, the Plumbs are staying in Utah.

We're happy here, but I think with the redistricting kind of things that may come up as well with, you know, the most recent kind of Supreme Court decisions and whatnot.

I'm kind of excited about that potential as well.

If maybe some folks who feel like their voice is not as represented by our federal delegation, we might have an opportunity.

Jason: One more interesting point to where the numbers are coming from.

We're, you know, we're growing quickly as a state.

But according to the US Census Bureau, many of those people are coming from places like California.

How is that going to change the political landscape for the state when we have so many people from places like California coming in?

Mike: Can I just jump in on that?

I've had a lot of of opportunity to talk to a lot of the folks coming from California and down in Washington County, I get a lot in South Utah County.

I represent Woodland Hills.

We had a lot up there.

Some of the most conservative folks that I have met with, some of the most conservative constituents I've met with are some of the folks coming from California.

Ironically, there are a number of people in California, they're fed up with California politics.

They're conservative, they're looking for a community.

And I know there's this dynamic to pick on the folks from California, but I kind of see the opposite.

A lot of these folks are very, very conservative.

Most of them, most, if not a high percentage vote Republican.

Jen: I've had a similar experience and I went to UCLA, this was a couple decades ago.

But, yeah, Orange County is-- Orange County, when people say, oh, people are moving here from Orange County, I think, "Well, that's not making things more blue."

That's definitely, I agree with you, a more conservative group.

Jason: Daniel?

Daniel: Agreed from what I've heard.

I don't--I wish--it's interesting, I think that the data still needs to be put together on that.

But yeah, it is interesting seeing the dynamic that some of these outsiders from different states bring to the state of Utah when they move here.

Jen: Because there is gonna be an interesting generational thing that happens, right?

Like Utah's population, we've had a lot of youth and that means as the youth grow that there may be some shifting waves and tides there.

Mike: But you see in Washington County, a lot of folks move from California to Washington County.

That that's an area where there is a lot of growth from folks from California.

If you look at the numbers in Washington County, arguably it's the--as far as larger counties in the state of Utah, it's arguably the most conservative at this point.

They vote very, very conservative in Washington County.

Jason: Let's get a couple of races really quickly.

Daniel, let's start with you.

Governor Cox gonna win his race 56%.

Brian King at 30%.

But as of right now, Phil Lyman is at 9%.

Break down that race a little bit.

Some of those dynamics.

Daniel: I'm not surprised with the turnout for Phil Lyman.

That was pretty much what I had been hearing was maybe 9-10%.

And certainly those votes would have probably all if not most gone to Cox in that race, right?

And so, Governor Cox won with a very wide margin, but certainly it would have been wider had this write-in campaign not been in play.

Jason: Well, talk about how this broke out because it looks like as of right now, about 127,000 write-in votes.

What does this say?

Maybe it says about some of the rural parts of the state you can give, you just break this down for us.

Or what does it say about maybe the Republican party to say something about Governor Cox?

Just tell us what this story is telling us.

Mike: I think in the end, I think Republicans are ready to move on.

I think that that number at 56% was large.

Obviously, obviously, Phil Lyman had a much larger percentage in the primary of Republicans.

He had a much bigger pool of supporters.

That number has dropped significantly to me it, yes, there, there are folks that want to see something different that were supportive of Phil Lyman.

But his numbers dropped significantly, every day I meet Republicans that are moving on.

They wanna move forward and I think that's what the numbers say to me.

Jen: Well, and if I may, I think, I hope that Governor Cox receives a message that there are some folks that would like him to perhaps hear them better and adjust to some of the concerns that they have.

And, you know, I honestly wondered if this kind of fracture would not help Representative King--Brian King, who, who would make a great governor, but it didn't--his numbers like we were, we were talking about almost exactly where they've been.

But I do think it's an indication if you have a leader, if you have a governor who's got some significant issues coming from both right and left, Democrat and Republican, there may be some adjustments you need to do and you may need to look at what your strategies have been of feeling or having your constituents feel like you're actually representing them.

And I'm hopeful that there will be some work within his administration because there's work to be done.

Jason: Can we talk about our House and Senate for a second?

Some races that you're watching, we still have a couple that are very close.

Anyone just fire away at one of the races you're watching.

Daniel: Well, I think the Rosemary Lesser race in Ogden.

She's the incumbent Democrat and the Republican, Jill Koford.

I believe that this to, as we say, this is up by a couple 100 votes.

Never say your vote doesn't count, especially in these local races, they can make the difference.

And there are a few others, Jason, too that are by very, very slim margins hanging on in a couple of House races.

Mike: But I would say in the State Senate, and this is something that Senator Plumb would be seen as well and none of the State Senate races were really that interesting.

In the end, there was a little bit of concern with Senator Wyler and he performed--he performed well.

There was a little bit of concern with Wayne Harper but in the end, Todd Wyler won with pretty, pretty substantial margins, Wayne Harper won with pretty substantial margins.

And there was no, there was no really big race that was contested that there were-- there were no surprises in the State Senate.

Jen: It was interesting to see in both of those races you mentioned the kind of emergence of the Independent candidates and there was a big push, all the Independents can do it, the Independents can do it.

And yet again, we saw the same result no-- Jason: Really quickly, particularly for the two of you.

And then while you're watching Daniel, so I want to get the direction from your parties for this legislative session because you two just won elections, all right.

Mike: Can we do this on the show.

Jen: I did not win but I won, you know, because I get to be an assistant.

Oh come on, we got to do our awkward bump on camera.

Jason: Assistant Majority Whips, well, in the last 30 seconds for between the two of you.

Where are we heading the parties for this session?

Mike: I think from the Republican perspective, we're gonna look at a lot of federalism issues.

We've got a Republican president, we've got a Republican congress.

I think states rights are gonna be incredibly important and we're gonna do everything we can to fight for state rights in Utah.

Jen: And I feel really committed and I think within our caucus as well that individual liberties and individual freedoms, and the right for each of us to exist in, in whatever essence that that is us is really going to need protection.

I'm very worried about immigrants and our asylum seekers that are here.

I think we need to protect our people.

Jason: That's gonna have to be the last word.

Thank you so much for your insights this evening and thank you for watching "The Hinckley Report."

The show is also available as a podcast on PBSUtah.org, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Thank you for being with us.

We'll see you next week.

announcer: Funding for "The Hinckley Report" is made possible in part by Merit Medical and by contributions to PBS Utah from viewers like you.

Thank you.

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