(upbeat music) - Good evening and welcome to Horizonte, a show that takes a look at current issues through a Hispanic lens.

I'm Catherine Anaya.

Before the election many pundits thought that the Hispanic vote was going to lean more toward Republicans.

However, that did not happen with the exception of Florida which has been more Republican due to the Cuban American vote.

We'll talk more about the vote, the Latino vote.

But first on election night, Congressman Rubin Gallego and state lawmaker, Marcelino Quiñonez talked about the Latino vote and retaining it.

- In Arizona, I can't speak for other states.

We did what we had to do.

Arizona did not slide towards the Democrats but we need to continue what we did.

What we did this year is that we started contacting Democratic voters, Latino voters not just Democrats, early and often we need to do that more intensively and we need to do it to younger people even though they don't have any voting history.

If we do that, we'll start winning the future by even more.

- Well, I think the most important thing for any party is to do direct contact and direct engagement.

We've noticed, and we've seen that direct translation does not work.

It is important that we go directly into Latino neighborhoods, engage with Latino communities and hear what those issues are so that then we can represent them as best as possible.

- Joining me now to talk about the Hispanic vote during the midterms, our political consultants Roy Herrera of the Law firm, Herrera Arellano, and Jason Barraza a partner in the firm, Veridus.

Gentlemen, thank you so much for joining me.

- Thank you.

- Thank you.

- So let us break it down.

Let's first talk about the Latino voters and the swing in the midterms.

Any strong indicators as far as where Latino voters swung or is it still too early to tell?

- It's still a little bit too early.

The way that the data works, it's gonna take about a month or so to really kind of bring that data in and analyze it.

We do have some information from exit polls.

Sometimes they are not the most reliable source, but across the board from the general feeling that's out there I think that Latinos did show up in this election and had an impact in its results.

- Well, let's talk about that impact.

How influential do you think the Latino vote was to say the key races like Governor and US Senate?

- Well, I mean the simple math tells us that it had to have been very impactful.

I mean, if you look at the outcome of the statewide races I mean some of 'em, even what, a week later we still don't know exactly the outcome to them because they're so close.

All the statewide races from Senator on down were close within five points of each other.

Given the size of the electorate, the Latino electorate in Arizona, they ended up becoming very decisive in who ended up winning these races.

- Well, I know it's still too early to really break it down significantly but there are reports that say limited voter data and exit polls both appear to show that Republicans made improvements with Latinos nationally.

What would you attribute that to?

- I think it has to do with the issues that Latinos are concerning themselves with.

I think too often we want to kind of segment the Latino voter and talk about very specific issues that we attribute to Latinos.

But I think in a broader context, they care about issues across the board just like everyone else.

So when we're talking about the economy we're talking about infrastructure within our government.

Those are all Latino issues and I think that Democrats specifically if they want to keep those Latinos in their column they need to start talking about those issues a little bit more.

- Would you agree with that?

I mean, what do we need to do moving forward?

- I totally agree.

I mean, I've always said, you know, we cannot take as a Democrat, take Latinos for granted when it comes to outreach and messaging.

Because to Jason's point, most of the time when you look at you know, public opinion surveys of Latinos the issues that they identify as most important are the same issues as everybody else.

Usually economic issues, education healthcare costs, even democracy.

And you know, in order to be successful we have to reach out to them in that way.

And you know, the exit polling does as you indicate show that maybe there was a slight shift.

But I think my response to that would be to Jason's point exit polling is historically inaccurate in a lot of ways.

And so right now I think the data nerds are going through matching up the precinct data with election outcomes to see what actually happened.

But again, when I'm looking at the type of Latino candidates that won nationwide and including in Arizona like Adrian Fontes our new Secretary of State, I attribute that to Latino voters still voting Democrat in high margins.

- So let's talk about this because big picture then Republicans they were hoping to see this reversal of democratic dominance with Latino voters.

Did they get what they were hoping for?

- I don't think so.

And I'm saying that primarily because I don't think they got what they were hoping for across the board.

You know, this year ended up being an anomaly in a lot of ways.

Normally, you know, the party in charge in DC does poorly in the midterm elections.

A lot of people expected that of Democrats.

But the results have shown nationwide and in Arizona the complete opposite, Democrats did very very well.

And I think a lot of it is because the Republicans ran poor candidates that didn't appeal to Latino voters in the way they should.

And I would break the Hispanic voting block up a little bit more and let's talk about Hispanic youth voters that really showed up in droves.

And I think that that kind of constituency was not expected.

But when they showed up, they showed up for the Democrats.

- Well and did we see a very strong younger Latino vote?

How influential were they to the midterm elections and how influential are they going to be moving forward?

- Well, I think when we look at and talk about voting blocks, we need to break them up.

So traditionally we talk about a female voting block a Hispanic voting block, and a youth voting block.

And I think that there was a unique intersection between all those voting blocks where you have a female Hispanic, a young individual who showed up and that was angry and that wanted to have their voice be heard.

And it hasn't been a voice that has really been part of the voting block in in the past.

- Is that what you noticed too Roy?

- That's right.

I mean, you know, I just got done saying exit polling is not particularly accurate.

But if you do look at the exit polling particularly NBC's exit polls, this midterm, you saw that the youth vote, the youth Latino vote, you know we're talking under 30 Latino voter was, you know supporting the Democrats in the sort of high sixties, 67 or 68% which is around what Latinos typically get as far as support or democrats typically get from Latinos voters.

And we saw that with the youth vote.

So nothing really changed.

And even in the exit polling that showed a larger shift to the Republicans with the Latino youth vote it stayed strongly with the Democrats.

- Well, and you saw a lot of young people getting involved in these grassroots efforts.

I heard that a lot this midterm election, grassroots efforts which I didn't feel like I heard as much since 2008, 2012.

That's where you have people, you know really canvassing the neighborhoods and door knocking.

Would you say that that's been very influential this time around and is that what we're going to need to see more of in the future to make a difference?

- Absolutely.

I mean, even Arizona we saw an unprecedented effort by Chicanos Por La Causa for example, another organization that is you know, very important to the Latino community.

They spent 10 million dollars on Latino GOTV voter registration outreach and it was successful as we see sort of the outcomes of the statewide election.

So that's an example of an investment that was unprecedented that needs to continue going forward to keep Latinos engaged.

- Yeah, I think when we're talking about engagement not just now, but in the future, it really comes down to the strength of our community organizing.

And there were a lot of groups that are out there that are putting efforts into it right now.

Cause what we're seeing is there is strength in a Hispanic voting block.

So they're making an effort to do the in-person door-to-door contact with those individuals that will pay dividends well into the future.

- So I'm going to mention something that I read recently and it said that there are some who say the midterm show that Latinos are persuadable and that there are places where Republicans are being persuasive.

So what can we expect to see from each party do you think both of you, moving forward, especially with Donald Trump announcing his run for president in 2024?

- Well again, I'm gonna go back to breaking the Hispanic voting block into a couple of different portions.

I think that when we're talking about a youth voter I mean the issues that Democrats were talking about whether it was insurrection, whether it was the right to access an abortion I think those issues resonated much more with a younger voting block.

As we get a little bit older within the Hispanic voting block they wanted to talk a little bit more about the economy.

They wanted to talk about inflation.

And so those types of differences I think is what drives those different individuals into different categories when we're talking about our political parties.

So again, in this one we had a great increase in a youth voter turnout.

And that's why I think that segment of the voting block really carried the day.

- What do you think?

- Well, you know, I don't disagree with the idea that the Latino voter is persuadable.

And again, I kind of go back to my original point is I've always been afraid that my party would take those voters for granted.

And one of the ways I think that's been done historically is not speaking to them about the issues that are most important.

There's always sort of this natural kind of view of like oh, we just need to talk about immigration because that's what Latinos want to hear.

And as we've kind of talked about earlier, it's really all these broader issues that the larger electorate care about that are also the same issues that are priorities to the Latino community.

And the Democrats did a really good job I think this cycle in focusing on those issues and getting Latinos to come out and vote for them.

We're gonna head into a presidential year.

Obviously the money, the attention is all gonna be increased a lot.

You have Donald Trump running again.

I don't think that's gonna be particularly good for Republicans when it comes to the Latino vote, given some of his hard line stances.

- Well I was gonna ask you about that, sorry to interrupt but he did well with Latino voters the last time around and that surprised a lot of people.

Do you see that happening again?

- I would think not.

And also hope not.

Again, I'm a Democrat here, but you know, there were some data points last election cycle where he did particularly well in places like Florida places like maybe South Texas for example.

But we saw, Florida's a different story.

So I put that aside cause it's a Cuban American boat is different.

But in Texas, for example, in the Rio Grande Valley we saw kind of a reversal of that, this cycle where a lot of the Latina incumbent Republican congresswoman lost to the Democratic congressmen or women.

And so I think that shifting kind of shifted back to kind of the natural historic, you know, view of Texas.

I don't know if Donald Trump's gonna be able to shift it back again.

- And in Arizona, what do you think?

- I think in Arizona that it's gonna have the impact what is going to impact the most is actions after the last election cycle.

So he may have been able to garner a large portion of the Hispanic vote previously, but we've got a lot more data points on the chart now with possible insurrection, the events of January 6th, the Supreme Court making its ruling related to abortions.

All of that information coming in I think it makes it very difficult for him to continue his outreach towards the Hispanic voting block.

- Well, a lot has changed, that's for sure.

So just your personal opinions, what surprised you most about the midterm elections?

- Well, the Democrats did so well.

I mean, typically a midterm election with a president from a particular party that is underwater that means disaster for that political party and that midterm election.

And that just did not materialize.

I think dems were not only survived but were able to make gains.

And that was incredibly surprising to see.

- You Roy?

- Exactly the same.

I was surprised at how well the Democrats did, pleasantly surprised on how well they did.

And I think the other way I'm looking at this is that the people that lost on the Republican side tended to be very Trumpian.

They tended to be sort of the election denier type of candidate.

And we saw them lose in Arizona and we saw them lose nationwide.

And it's my hope that that means that we'll sort of go back to the regular order of things where the Democrats and Republicans are debating about issues and not about the democracy itself.

- Yes.

Well we're gonna be watching a lot of what's coming from those exit polls and all of that data in the next coming weeks.

But thank you both so much for trying to break this down with us.

There's still a lot more to talk about.

And of course, as you mentioned we have the presidential race coming up.

So thank you both for joining me.

I certainly appreciate it.

- Lots to talk about.

- Thank you so much.

- Thank you.

- Thanks.

And that's our show for tonight.

For Horizonte and Arizona PBS, I'm Catherine Anaya, thank you so much for joining me.

Have a great night.

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