TIM: WELCOME BACK.

POLLSTER RICHARD CZUBA IS IN THE CUE ON "OTR" THIS WEEK.

OUR LEAD STORY, FRED UPTON HANGS IT UP, THE RACE FOR ATTORNEY GENERAL HEATS UP.

ON THE PANEL, JORDYN HERMANI, BILL BALLENGER AND KYLE MALIN.

SITTING WITH US AS WE GET THE INSIDE OUT, "OFF THE RECORD."

ANNOUNCER: PRODUCTION OF "OFF THE RECORD" IS MADE POSSIBLE IN PART BY -- AND NOW, THIS EDITION OF "OFF THE RECORD" WITH TIM SKUBICK.

TIM: WELCOME TO "OFF THE RECORD."

NICE TO HAVE YOU ON BOARD.

WE HAVE JORDYN AND KYLE AND MR. BALLENGER.

NICE TO SEE YOU, SIR, HOW YOU DOING?

>> GLAD TO BE WITH YOU GUYS.

TIM: BEAUTIFUL.

START OUT WITH YOU, MR. BALLENGER.

THE TOM LEONARD SAYING FOR ATTORNEY GENERAL, HOW DOES IT LOOK TO YOU FROM WHERE YOU SEE IT?

>> IT'S LOOKING LIKE TOM LEONARD IS IN TROUBLE, SURPRISINGLY ENOUGH.

I THINK SEVERAL MONTHS AGO, NOBODY WOULD HAVE THOUGHT THIS, BUT THERE ARE POLLS OUT, OR A POLL THAT SHOW THAT AMONG THE DELEGATES, THAT IT LOOKS LIKE ARE CERTAIN TO ATTEND THE STATE CONVENTION ON APRIL 23, DePERNO HAS A HEALTHY LEAD.

KEEP IN MIND, IT'S COUNTY CONVENTIONS THIS COMING MONDAY THAT DETERMINE ULTIMATELY WHO THE DELEGATES ARE AT THE STATE CONVENTION.

SO THAT'S UNCERTAIN, BUT LOOKS LIKE PERHAPS THERE WILL BE A FLOOD OF TRUMP-ENDORSED CANDIDATES TO BE DELEGATES PICKED AT VARIOUS CONVENTION SAID ON MONDAY, AND IF THAT'S THE CASE, IT WOULD BE EVEN BETTER FOR MATT DePERNO WHO HAS TRUMP'S ENDORSEMENT.

SO THERE HAVE BEEN RUMORS THAT TOM IS BEING TOLD BY THE STATE PARTY CHAIRMAN MAYBE HE OUGHT TO LOOK AT ANOTHER RACE AND NOT GO THROUGH WITH THIS.

WE'LL SEE WHAT HAPPENS.

TIM: WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THIS, JORDYN?

>> WELL, I MEAN, IT GOES BACK TO FIGURING OUT WHAT'S THE WEIGHT OF A TRUMP ENDORSEMENT AND LOOKING LIKE MORE AND MORE IT'S WORTH MORE AND MORE.

THAT WAS A QUESTION WE HAD AT THE START OF THE YEAR WITH HOUSE CANDIDATES.

PEOPLE COMING OUT OF THE WOODWORK WE HAD NEVER HEARD OF BUT SUDDENLY TRUMP ENDORSED THEM THAT ELEVATED THEIR PROFILE.

SAME WITH MATT DePERNO.

HE HAS A HISTORY OF WORKING FOR THE FORMER PRESIDENT WITH CHALLENGES IN THE COUNTY, AND WE'RE LOOKING AT A PARTY LEANING MORE INTO THE GRASSROOTS BASE THAT IS THE FERVENT TRUMP SUPPORTERS.

THAT SHOULD PUT INDIVIDUALS LIKE TOM LEONARD AND THE MORE ESTABLISHMENT CANDIDATES ON EDGE.

TIM: THAT'S THE KEY WORD, ESTABLISHMENT.

WHERE IS IT?

>> ALMOST LIKE IT'S CHANGED.

ALMOST LIKE IT'S DISAPPEARED.

TIM: OR NOT WHAT IT USED TO BE, ALMOST AS IF IT IS DONALD TRUMP IN THAT FASHION, HE HAS THE ENTHUSIASM OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY.

HE'S THE PERSON STILL DRAWING THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE TO A VENUE ON A SATURDAY NIGHT TO COME AND LISTEN TO HIM SPEAK FOR AN HOUR AND 45 MINUTES.

IT'S REALLY AMAZING TO WATCH HOW HIS ENTHUSIASM AND THE ABILITY TO ATTRACT FOLKS HAS CONTINUED, DESPITE THE FACT HE'S NOT RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT, YET.

LET'S PUT THAT OUT THERE, BUT SEEMS TO BE THE LIGHTNING ROD TO GET PEOPLE MOTIVATED.

HE'S TALKING ABOUT THE THINGS THAT ARE ON FOLKS' MIND, TALK ABOUT IMMIGRATION, HOW IS BIDEN DOING WITH AFGHANISTAN?

HOW IS HE DOING WITH UKRAINE?

TRANSGENDERED INDIVIDUALS IN SPORTS?

TALKING ABOUT CRITICAL RACE THEORY THAT HAVE THE REPUBLICAN GRASSROOTS FIRED UP.

HE'S FIRING THEM UP AND THEY'RE ATTACHED TO THEM.

TIM: HE'S ALSO TALKING ABOUT THE 2020 ELECTION, BILL, AND SOME IN THIS BUSINESS SAY THAT'S A GREAT ISSUE FOR A PRIMARY ELECTION, BUT MR. TRUMP WORKING ON THE PAST OUGHT TO BE LOOKING AT THE FUTURE, SOME OF HIS CRITICS ARE SAYING, YES OR NO?

>> YES, TIM, YOU ARE ABSOLUTELY NIGHT.

IT'S A RARE GUARD ACTION TAKEN BY DePERNO AND CHRISTINA KARAMO ENDORSING TRUMP CANDIDATES AT THE UPCOMING STATE CONVENTION FOR THE REPUBLICANS, AND I THINK THE PARTY WOULD BE MUCH BETTER OFF IF THEY FOCUSED NOT ONLY ON 2022 BUT MAYBE 2024, TO THE FUTURE.

THEY'RE BLOWING IT WITH INDEPENDENTS AND TICKET-SPLITTERS AND ANY PROSPECT THE DEMOCRATS MIGHT BE ATTRACTED TO REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES.

IF ALL THEY DO IS RELITIGATE THE RESULTS OF THE 2020 ELECTION.

>> THAT'S A COMPLETE LOSER TO GO BACK TOWARD 2020.

IF YOU LISTEN TO MATT DePERNO, HE IS NOT LEADING WITH THAT AS HE DID WHEN HE FIRST ANNOUNCED THIS CANDIDACY.

THAT WAS THE THING HE OPENED WITH WHEN HE FIRST ANNOUNCED.

NOW TALKING MORE ABOUT WIDESPREAD FRAUD IN ELECTIONS IN GENERAL, WHICH IS AN ATTACK THAT CHRISTINA KARAMO TOOK MONTHS AGO.

SHE HASN'T BEEN TALKING ABOUT WIDESPREAD FRAUD EXCEPT ON A ONE-ON-ONE OR ONE ON TWO BASIS.

THEY REALIZE WHEN THEY GET TO GENERAL ELECTION, THAT IS A LOSER.

>> BEGS THE QUESTION DID THEY TALK ABOUT THESE TWO GETTING THEIR FOOT IN THE DOOR, AND NOW THAT THEY HAVE THE PRESIDENT'S EYE AND EAR AND THE PARTYTS INTEREST, THEY DON'T NEED TO KEEP TOUTING THIS.

YOU WOULDN'T CONTINUE SAYING THIS IF YOU DIDN'T, BUT AT THE SAME TIME, LIKE KYLE AND BILL SAID, WHAT HAPPENS ONCE YOU GET INTO OFFICE, IF THEY GET INTO OFFICE AND THEY'RE STILL BEATING THAT HORN?

WHAT THEN?

THERE'S NO WAY YOU CAN GO FROM THAT.

THEY NEED A DIFFERENT FORWARD PERSPECTIVE.

TIM: MEANWHILE, MICHIGAN DEMOCRATS MAY BE SAYING TO THEMSELVES THERE IS A GOD AND SHE'S A DEMOCRAT.

>> BECAUSE THEY GET TO FACE DePERNO AND KARAMO?

TIM: YOU MIGHT MAKE THAT JUDGMENT.

>> I'M CURIOUS WHAT BILL THINKS ON THAT 1234.

>> I THINK THE REPUBLICANS ARE THROWING THE DEMOCRATS A LIFELINE THEY WOULDN'T HAVE OTHERWISE.

IF REPUBLICANS COULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE CLIMATE THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY AND IN MICHIGAN RIGHT NOW, THINGS LIKE INFLATION, JOE BIDEN'S APPROVAL RATING, JOB RATING, WAY DOWN IN THE POLLS, THEY'D BE IN MUCH BETTER SHAPE, PARTICULARLY IN A NONPRESIDENTIAL ELECTION YEAR, AND INSTEAD, THE REPUBLICANS KEEP PUMPING THESE ISSUES THAT ARE JUST DESIGNED TO DRIVE PEOPLE AWAY.

TICKET-SPLITTERS AND INDEPENDENTS WHO ARE GOING TO DETERMINE THE RESULT OF THIS ELECTION.

REMEMBER THE BASE PROBABLY OF EACH PARTY WILL BE ROUGHLY THE SAME AS IT'S BEEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL CYCLES, BUT IT'S THE INDEPENDENTS AND TICKET-SPLITTERS WHO DETERMINE WHO PREVAILS IN NOVEMBER, AND RIGHT NOW, THE REPUBLICANS ARE DRIVING THEM INTO THE ARMS OF THE DEMOCRATS.

>> I THINK WE ARE GOING TO SEE A CHANGE THAT, WHEN WE START GETTING TO THE GENERAL ELECTION, THAT THE DEMOCRATS ARE THE ONES WHO ARE GOING TO BE HIGHLIGHTING THE FACT THAT MATT DePERNO AND REPUBLICANS WERE THE ONES WHO SAID THAT THIS ELECTION WAS FIXED AND THAT THERE WAS WIDESPREAD ELECTION FRAUD THAT SWAYED THE ELECTION TO DONALD TRUMP.

I THINK IT'S THE DEMOCRATS WHO TALK ABOUT THAT TO SHOW THAT THE REPUBLICANS ARE A BUNCH OF CONSPIRACY THEORISTS AND COMPLETELY OFF THEIR ROCKER, WHICH IS COMPLETELY DIFFERENT THAN IT WAS PRIOR.

I THINK THE REASON FOR THAT IS, AND WE'RE GOING TO HAVE POLLING THAT SHOWS THIS, THAT FOLKS WHO BELIEVE -- REPUBLICANS WHO BELIEVE THERE WAS WIDESPREAD CONSPIRACY THAT CONTRIBUTED TO DONALD TRUMP LOSING, THOSE CANDIDATES DO WORSE THAN THOSE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES WHO DON'T ADVOCATE FOR THAT.

FROM WHAT WE CAN TELL, ABOUT A THREE PERCENTAGE POINT DIFFERENCE AT THIS POINT, THAT'S WITHOUT DEMOCRATS POUNDING IT.

WHAT HAPPENS IN THE GENERAL ELECTION WHEN THEY POUND IT?

WILL IT BE BIG ENOUGH TO SWAY THE ELECTION?

THAT'S ONE OF THE BIG STORY LINES IS GOING TO BE.

TIM: INTERESTING HERE BECAUSE THERE IS SUPPOSED TO BE A RED WAVE OVERTAKING THE COUNTRY IN THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS.

WELL THE WAVE IS NOT AS BIG IN MICHIGAN BECAUSE OF THE FACTORS THAT DIFFERENT ISSUES ARE GOING ON.

SO THE QUESTION IS: WILL THE ESTABLISHMENT REASSERT ITSELF AT THIS CONVENTION?

ARE WE GOING TO HAVE A SHOWDOWN, DO YOU THINK?

>> I MEAN, THEY HAVE TO, IF THEY WANT TO KEEP ANY GROUND.

AS KYLE WAS SAYING, YOU HAVE YOUR INDIVIDUALS WHO WANT TO KEEP RELEGATING THE 2020 ELECTION, VOTERS CARE ABOUT THE KITCHEN TABLE ISSUES, INFLATION, LIKE BILL SAID.

THEY CARE ABOUT WHAT KIDS ARE LEARNING IN SCHOOL.

THEY CARE ABOUT -- THERE MAY BE A PORTION THAT DOES CARE ABOUT RELITIGATING THE 2020 ELECTION, IF YOU REACH OUT TO THE PEOPLE IN THE MIDDLE, YOU FIND OUT SOMETHING THEY CARE ABOUT.

NOT SOMETHING THAT'S A FLASH POINT, NOT I'M MAD WE DIDN'T GET OUR GUY ELECTED SO WE'RE GOING TO KEEP TALKING ABOUT IT FOR THE NEXT TWO YEARS.

TIM: SPEAKING OF THE MIDDLE, THE MICHIGAN REPUBLICAN PARTY LOST SOMEBODY FROM THE MIDDLE IN FRED UPTON.

WHAT HAPPENED TO UPTON, BILLY?

>> FRED UPTON FOUND HIMSELF IN THE NEW MAPS THAT CAME OUT IN THE SAME DISTRICT AS BILL HUIZENGA AND THERE WERE PRIVATE POLLS RUN THAT SHOWED UPTON WANT BEAT HIM IN A PRIMARY.

HUIZENGA HAS DONALD TRUMP'S ENDORSEMENT.

HE'S NOT CONSIDERED A CLASSIC DONALD TRUMP TYPE, WE KNOW HIM, HE'S BEEN AROUND FOR YEARS, ESTABLISHED A PRETTY SOLID RECORD, BUT MUCH MORE FAVORABLE TO TRUMP, AND TRUMP'S FOLLOWERS THAN FRED UPTON, WHO REALLY INCURRED THE WRATH OF TRUMP BY VOTING TO IMPEACH TRUMP.

SO FRED UPTON, ALL OF A SUDDEN FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 36 YEARS, THAT'S HOW LONG HE'S BEEN IN THE U.S. HOUSE, FOUND HIMSELF IN A DISTRICT WITH A FELLOW REPUBLICAN WHO HE COULDN'T BEAT IN A PRIMARY.

I THINK FRED UPTON SAW THE HANDWRITING ON THE WALL AND DECIDED I'M NOT GOING TO GO THROUGH WITH THIS.

TIM: FRED UPTON IS THE POSTER CHILD FOR WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE REPUBLICAN PARTY.

THE INCENSIBLE CENTER AS IT'S OFTEN REFERRED TO IS EVAPORATING AND GOING AWAY, IS IT NOT?

>> AT LEAST IT'S GETTING QUIETER.

LIKE BILL SAID, IT'S GETTING QUIETER AND IF THE SENSIBLE CENTER WANTS TO KEEP STAYING A SENSIBLE CENTER, THEY NEED TO FIND -- I DON'T KNOW A BETTER WORD -- MIGHT IN THEM TO PUSH BACK HARDER AND IF YOU WANT TO GO AGAINST THE TRUMP TYPES, IF YOU WANT TO GO AGAINST KEEPING YOUR SPOT AND KEEPING THIS MIDDLE, THEN YOU NEED TO FIGURE OUT A WAY TO ASSERT YOURSELF, AND YOU NEED TO FIGURE OUT A WAY TO MAYBE REACH MORE OVER INTO THE LEFT.

THEY REALIZE THAT'S SOMETHING REPUBLICANS WOULDN'T BE FAVORABLE OF.

IF YOU'RE LOSING GROUND WITH YOUR OWN PEOPLE BY VIRTUE OF SIMPLY VOTING TO IMPEACH THE PRESIDENT.

THERE WAS ANOTHER ISSUE WHEN TRUMP TALKED ABOUT RASHIDA TLAIB TO GO BACK TO HER OWN COUNTRY, THEY NEED TO FIGURE OUT WHERE THE PUSH IS AND PUSH FROM THERE, IF THAT MAKES SENSE TO YOU GUYS.

>> I KNOW IT DOES, NOW THE FOCUS SEEMS TO BE AFTER THE NOMINATING CONVENTION FOR REPUBLICANS ON THE 23rd, THE FOCUS WILL BE ON PETER MEYER WHO IS THE OTHER REPUBLICAN FROM MICHIGAN WHO VOTED FOR IMPEACHMENT ON DONALD TRUMP.

DONALD TRUMP HAS HIS CANDIDATE IN JOHN GIBBS, WHOSE NEVER LIVED IN THE DISTRICT BEFORE, A COMPLETE NEWCOMER FROM MICHIGAN THOUGH HE'S FROM MICHIGAN ORIGINALLY AND CAN SOMEBODY WHO COMES WITH NO MONEY, NO NAME ID, BEAT SOMEBODY SIMPLY BECAUSE OF DONALD TRUMP?

THAT WILL SHOW THE STRENGTH OF DONALD TRUMP IN THE STATE OF MICHIGAN.

TIM: BILLY, LET ME ASK YOU SOMETHING, SIX MONTHS AGO, IF FRED UPTON KNEW HE WAS IN TROUBLE, WOULD HE LOOK AT RUNNING FOR GOVERNOR?

REMEMBER HE FLIRTED WITH THIS OVER THE YEARS, HAS HE NOT?

>> PEOPLE FLIRTED WITH THE IDEA OF FRED UPTON RUNNING FOR GOVERNOR MORE THAN FRED UPTON HIMSELF, I THINK.

I HONESTLY DON'T THINK FRED UPTON HAD A GREAT DESIRE TO GET INTO STATE-LEVEL POLITICS.

HE'S THE REALLY BECOME A CREATURE OF WASHINGTON.

NOT SAYING HE'S PART OF THE SWAMP.

THOUGH THAT'S WHAT THE TRUMP PEOPLE WOULD CLAIM, BUT THAT'S WHERE HE MADE HIS MARK WHEN HE RAN FOR CONGRESS IN 1986, AND THAT'S BEEN HIS ENTIRE CAREER.

AND, YOU KNOW, I THINK PEOPLE HAVE LOOKED FOR A PLACE FOR HIM TO GO, ABOVE AND BEYOND JUST BEING A REPRESENTATIVE OF A FAIRLY CONFINED GEOGRAPHICAL AREA IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN, BELIEVING HE'S A MAN OF SUCH SUBSTANCE AND REPUTATION AND RESPECT THAT HE PROBABLY SHOULD BE IN A HIGHER OFFICE.

I THINK YOU COULD MAKE A GOOD CASE THAT HE SHOULD BE.

BUT I DON'T THINK THE SITUATION HAS EVER PRESENTED ITSELF, I THINK THE U.S. SENATE MIGHT HAVE BEEN SOMETHING HE WOULD BE INTERESTED IN, AND HE HAS LOOKED AT THAT, BUT FOR VARIOUS REASONS HAS DECIDED TO STAY WHERE HE WAS, UNTIL NOW, AND NOW, THE HANDWRITING IS ON THE WALL, AND I THINK HE REALIZE SAID ALL GOOD THINGS MUST COME TO AN END, AS HE HIMSELF SAID IN HIS SPEECH ON THE HOUSE FLOOR.

TIM: LET'S PURSUE THIS AND OTHER ISSUES AS WE CALL IN OUR GUEST, A NOTED POLLSTER SPEAKING TO US FROM WEST MICHIGAN, RICHARD, GOOD MORNING.

>> GOOD MORNING.

TIM: EARLIER THIS WEEK YOU SAID THAT DONALD TRUMP IS RUNNING THE MICHIGAN REPUBLICAN PARTY.

LAST TIME I CHECKED, HE DOESN'T LIVE HERE.

[LAUGHTER] >> I THINK WE NEED TO BE REALLY HONEST ABOUT WHAT'S HAPPENING IN THE REPUBLICAN PARTY WHEN WE TALK ABOUT THE ESTABLISHMENT.

DONALD TRUMP AND THE TRUMP FACTION OF THE PARTY, THEY ARE NOW THE ESTABLISHMENT OF THE MICHIGAN REPUBLICAN PARTY.

IT APPEARS THEY HAVE FIRM CONTROL OF THE PARTY, AND THEY ARE PURGING ANYONE WHO DISAGREES WITH THEM, AND I THINK WE JUST NEED TO DROP THIS IDEA THAT THERE IS AN OLD ESTABLISHMENT.

IT DOESN'T EXIST.

THE OLD ESTABLISHMENT IS EITHER MOVED TO THE INDEPENDENT SIDE OR THEY ARE NOW PART OF THE TRUMP ESTABLISHMENT.

TIM: JORDYN?

>> SO, I GUESS WHAT DO YOU SEE AS A PATH FORWARD, AS WE WERE JUST TALKING ABOUT, FOR THOSE MIDDLE OF THE ROADS, THE FRED UPTONS, THE POSSIBLE PETER MEYERS WHO WANT TO KEEP SERVING IN POLITICS BUT SEE THEIR OWN PARTY LOOKING AT THEM AS IF THEY ARE THE ENEMY?

>> THERE'S TWO DIFFERENT ISSUES HERE.

ONE IS GETTING THROUGH A REPUBLICAN PRIMARY.

AS WE POLL REPUBLICAN-BASED PRIMARY VOTERS, THEY ARE STUCK IN 2020.

THEY WANT TO SEE THE 2020 ELECTION OVERTURNED.

THEY THINK DONALD TRUMP WAS ROBBED, AND THEY ARE STUCK ON THAT ISSUE, AND THAT PRESENTS A REAL CHALLENGE FOR ANY REPUBLICAN RUNNING IN MICHIGAN, BECAUSE YOU HAVE TO PIVOT TO WIN INDEPENDENTS.

MICHIGAN IS DECIDED PARTICULARLY BY SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DEPENDENTS AND DON'T WANT TO TALK ABOUT THE 2020 ELECTION, THEY WANT TO TALK ABOUT THE ECONOMY AND TALK ABOUT INFLATION, AND REPUBLICANS CAN'T GET OUT OF THEIR OWN WAY TO TALK ABOUT THOSE ISSUES.

>> I GOT A QUESTION FOR YOU.

WHEN YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT POLLING OF REPUBLICANS, RICHARD, JUST TO PUT A POINT ON IT, HOW MANY ARE STUCK ON THE 2020 ELECTION BY PERCENTAGE, AND HOW MANY BY PERCENTAGE OF STRONG SUPPORTERS OF DONALD TRUMP?

>> WELL, DONALD TRUMP, AMONGST THE BASE OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, HAS ABOUT 85% FAVORABLE RIGHT NOW.

THAT IS WHERE ALL OF HIS FAVORABLES ARE.

WHEN YOU LOOK AT INDEPENDENTS, ONLY 19% VIEW HIM FAVORABLY AMONGST INDEPENDENTS.

THAT'S THE DILEMMA FOR THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES.

WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT THE BASE REPUBLICAN VOTERS, I WOULD SAY ABOUT THREE IN FOUR BELIEVE THAT THE 2020 ELECTION WAS A FRAUD.

>> 75%?

75% OF REPUBLICANS BELIEVE THAT IT WAS FIXED?

>> YEAH, PARTICULARLY THOSE PRIMARY VOTERS, AND LET'S REMEMBER, WHEN WE TALK ABOUT PRIMARY VOTERS, WE'RE TALKING ABOUT IN A REPUBLICAN PARTY, THAT'S ABOUT 8 TO 10% OF THE ELECTORATE.

THAT'S WHERE THE DECISIONS ARE GETTING MADE WITHIN THE VERY NARROW BASE BECAUSE SO FEW PEOPLE VOTE IN THE AUGUST PRIMARIES.

TIM: BILL?

>> YEAH, I'VE GOT A QUESTION -- ACTUALLY TWO QUESTIONS FOR RICH.

FIRST OF ALL, IS IT REALLY POSSIBLE TO POLL DELEGATES TO A CONVENTION, PARTICULARLY IF THE DELEGATES HAVEN'T EVEN BEEN CHOSEN YET?

AND SECONDLY, SHOULD THERE BE STANDARDS FOR POLLS.

WE ARE AWASH IN POLLS TODAY COMPARED TO 30 YEARS AGO.

THERE'S A POLL EVERY 24 HOURS SOMEWHERE, SOMEHOW.

HOW CAN THE NEWS MEDIA DEAL WITH THE STANDARDS FOR THESE POLLS?

>> WELL, LET ME TAKE THE FIRST QUESTION.

YOU CAN'T POLL PEOPLE THAT DON'T YET EXIST, I.E., DELEGATES TO A STATE CONVENTION, NOT ALL OF THE DELEGATES WILL BE CONVENTION DELEGATES BUT IT CERTAINLY CAN TELL YOU, GIVE YOU A SENSE OF WHERE THE MOVEMENT IS, WHAT THE FEELINGS ARE, BUT IT'S KIND OF LIKE DOING A STATEWIDE SURVEY OF THE NOVEMBER ELECTION, AND NOT SCREENING FOR ARE YOU REGISTERED TO VOTE, AND ARE YOU DEFINITELY GOING TO VOTE IN NOVEMBER?

SO I THINK IT'S A LITTLE BIT OF A MISNOMER TO SAY WE CAN POLL THE DELEGATES BECAUSE WE DON'T KNOW WHO THEY ARE YET.

IN TERMS OF STANDARDS -- THANK YOU FOR ASKING THAT QUESTION.

I'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THIS MORE THAN A QUARTER CENTURY IN MICHIGAN.

WE ARE DELUGE WITH A SCHLOCK OF VOTING, AND I TRIED TO DRILL INTO AND I THINK IT HAPPENS WITH REALLY GOOD REPORTERS WHAT IS REPORTED OUT THERE, AND I THINK WE SHOULD HAVE BASIC STANDARDS, SUCH AS, IF YOU DON'T SEE THE FULL SURVEY, YOU SHOULDN'T REPORT ON IT.

YOU SHOULD KNOW WHO PAID FOR IT.

YOU SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE ALL THE CROSS TABS TO THAT SURVEY.

THESE ARE BASIC STANDARDS WE SHOULD PUT IN PLACE BEFORE WE START RUNNING NUMBERS THAT FRANKLY, WE DON'T KNOW WHO THE ORGANIZATIONS ARE PUTTING THE NUMBERS OUT, BUT SURE ENOUGH, WE GET REPORTS ON, YOU KNOW, SOMEBODY TAKING THE LEAD WHEN IT JUST DOESN'T EXIST, AND WHAT IT DOES IN AN ELECTION YEAR IS CHANGES A NARRATIVE.

I DO PUBLIC POLLING FOR THE DETROIT NEWS AND WDIV, I TAKE VERY SERIOUSLY THE EFFECT WE HAVE ON THOSE RACE.

WE DON'T WANT TO CHANGE A NARRATIVE WHERE THE NARRATIVE DOESN'T EXIST, AND I THINK PUBLIC POLLING IS AT ITS BEST FRANKLY, NOT WHEN IT COVERS THE HORSE RACE BUT RATHER HELPS EXPLAIN WHY PEOPLE ARE TAKING POSITIONS THEY'RE TAKING.

TIM: WHAT DO YOU THINK IS GOING ON IN THE GOVERNOR'S RACE ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE OF THE AISLE?

[LAUGHTER].

>> I THINK IT'S A MESS, TO BE PERFECTLY HONEST.

YOU KNOW, LAST AUGUST, I REMEMBER SAYING IF WE DIDN'T GO INTO MACKINAW, UNDERSTANDING WHO THE REPUBLICAN FRONT-RUNNERS WERE WITH THE NOMINATION, THE REPUBLICANS WOULD BE IN TROUBLE IN THAT RACE.

AND HERE WE ARE FOUR MONTHS, APRIL, BEFORE THE AUGUST PRIMARY, I CAN'T TELL YOU WHO'S THE FRONT-RUNNER IN THIS RACE.

I THINK JAMES CRAIG, SIMPLY BY THE NATURE OF NAME ID IS PROBABLY CONSIDERED THE FRONT-RUNNER, BUT YOU KNOW, WE DON'T KNOW WHERE THIS IS GOING TO GO, AND CERTAINLY DON'T KNOW WHERE IT'S GOING TO GO IN A MULTICANDIDATE FIELD.

WE NEED TO REMEMBER, MULTICANDIDATE FIELDS PRODUCE REALLY WHACKY RESULTS, SO I THINK WE NEED TO PREPARE OURSELVES FOR THE UNEXPECTED IN THIS RACE.

TIM: SO AT THE END OF THE DAY, HOW MANY PEOPLE WILL WE HAVE IN THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY?

GIVE ME A NUMBER.

>> YOU TELL ME.

TIM: I ASKED YOU FIRST.

I ASKED YOU FIRST.

>> HOW MANY OF THESE PEOPLE ARE EVEN GOING TO SUPPLY THE PETITION SIGNATURES?

I WAS STARTLED, FRANKLY, WHEN I HEARD JAMES CRAIG AT THE TRUMP RALLY TALKING ABOUT HOW THEY'RE ALMOST TO THE 15,000.

THEY'RE ALMOST THERE.

AND I'M LIKE, WHAT?

THIS IS LIKE RULE NUMBER ONE, GO GET YOUR PETITIONS.

TIM: WHAT DOES THAT SAY ABOUT THE CANDIDATE IF HE OR SHE IS SAYING WE'RE ALMOST TO 15,000.

IS THERE A HIDDEN MESSAGE IN THAT STATEMENT?

>> I THINK GOOD CAMPAIGNS KNOW THAT YOU GET YOUR PETITIONS FIRST, AND EVEN IF YOU DON'T HAVE THEM, YOU SAY YOU DO FOR GOSH SAKES.

>> YOU LIE?

>> THAT IS POLITICS 101.

[ LAUGHTER ] >> SO THE FACT THAT HE -- OBVIOUSLY EVERYBODY ASSUMES HE'LL FILE THE SIGNATURES, DOES IT IS A SOMETHING ABOUT THE ORGANIZATION?

DOES IT IS A SOMETHING ABOUT THE GUY AT THE HEAD?

WHAT DOES IT SAY, IF ANYTHING?

.

>> CAMPAIGNS ARE GOOD ORGANIZATION.

I THINK WE HAVE A WHOLE LOT OF CANDIDATES WHO HAVE NEVER CAMPAIGNED OR RUN CAMPAIGNED OR MANAGED CAMPAIGNS.

IN FACT, I'M RATHER STARTLED ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE OF THE AISLE, THERE'S ONLY ONE CANDIDATE RUNNING THAT HAS ANY EXPERIENCE WITH GOVERNMENT, THAT IS MIKE BROWN OUT OF BERRIAN COUNTY, WHO WAS A STATE COUNTY OFFICIAL, THAT'S A FAR CRY FROM EVEN A DECADE AGO, WHERE GOVERNMENT EXPERIENCE WAS REALLY IMPORTANT.

EVEN RICK SNYDER, THOUGH HE HADN'T BEEN AN ELECTED OFFICIAL, HAD A LOT OF EXPERIENCE WITH WORKING WITH GOVERNMENT AND SERVING AT ROLLS AND COMMISSIONS.

THAT DOESN'T EXIST ANYMORE.

TIM: JORDYN?

>> TALKING A LOT ABOUT REPUBLICANS, SHOULD POLLING BE FROM THE STATE LEVEL, I WOULD GET THEY WOULD BE MORE EXCITED.

AT THE LOCAL LEVEL, HOW SHOULD THEY BE READING THE FACT THAT A LARGE SWATH OF THE VOTING POPULATION WHO WOULDN'T VOTE FOR THEM ANYWAYS BELIEVES THAT THE 2020 ELECTION WAS STOLEN AND WANTS TO GO BACK AND RELITIGATE?

>> AS I SAID, MICHIGAN ELECTIONS ARE FIRST AND FOREMOST DECIDED BY INDEPENDENTS.

I DON'T THINK WE PAY ENOUGH ATTENTION TO INDEPENDENTS.

WE LOOK AT THE DEMOCRAT VERSE REPUBLICAN ISSUE.

WE NEED TO LISTEN TO WHAT THEY SAY AND THEY'RE WORRIED ABOUT THE ECONOMY.

IF I WERE RUNNING AS A DEMOCRAT, I'D BE VERY WORRIED RIGHT NOW.

IT'S A MIDTERM.

THEIR PARTY'S IN POWER, HISTORICALLY SPEAKING, THIS SHOULD BE A REALLY BAD YEAR FOR DEMOCRATS.

THE QUESTION IS: DO REPUBLICANS GET OUT OF THEIR OWN WAY AND FOCUS ON THE ECONOMY?

THAT'S WHERE VOTERS ARE.

AND IT'S NOT JUST GAS PRICES THEY'RE WORRIED ABOUT.

IT IS THE COST OF FOOD AND MILK AND BREAD.

THAT'S WHAT VOTERS ARE REALLY WORRIED ABOUT RIGHT NOW.

THAT'S BAD NEWS FOR THE DEMOCRATS.

I THINK, YOU KNOW, GOVERNOR WHITMER'S CAMPAIGN HAS DONE A PRETTY SHREWD JOB OF PIVOTING ON SOME OF THE PREVIOUS ISSUES SHE WAS RUNNING BACK IN THE SUMMER.

I THINK BACK IN SEPTEMBER IS WHEN I NOTICED THE BIG CHANGE OCCURRING WHAT SHE WAS TALKING ABOUT, BUT THEY NEED TO BE TALKING ABOUT THE ECONOMY.

I THINK I TOLD YOU, TIM, A YEAR AGO, THIS ELECTION WAS GOING TO BE DECIDED ON THE ECONOMY BECAUSE THAT'S WHAT MICHIGAN ELECTIONS ARE DECIDED ON.

I'D LIKE TO SAY IT'S MICHIGAN, FOR GOD SAKES, IT'S JOBS AND THE ECONOMY.

IF IT'S NOT, YOU'RE IN TROUBLE.

>> POLLING ON THE ENTHUSIASM AMONG DEMOCRATS COMPARED TO THE ENTHUSIASM AMONG REPUBLICANS?

>> YEAH, I MEAN, THIS IS SOMETHING FRANKLY WE MONITOR IN EVERY POLL WE DO.

PROBABLY THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR WE WATCH.

AND WHAT WE'RE SEEING IS REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS CONTINUE TO BE EQUALLY MOTIVATED TO VOTE IN NOVEMBER.

WHAT WE'RE SEEING, HOWEVER, IS SOFTNESS DEVELOPING IN THE CENTER, AND NOT ONLY THE CENTER, BUT LEANING DEMOCRATS CENTER LEFT.

I THINK THAT'S WHERE DEMOCRATS NEED TO WORRY.

REPUBLICANS ARE GOING TO VOTE.

I THINK BASE DEMOCRATS ARE GOING TO VOTE.

I SAID TO TIM EARLIER, DONALD TRUMP IS A GREAT VOTE MOTIVATOR, HE GETS PEOPLE TO VOTE BUT GETS THEM TO VOTE ON BOTH SIDES OF THE AISLE.

IF THIS ELECTION BECOMES ABOUT DONALD TRUMP, THAT DOES NOTHING BUT MOTIVATE DEMOCRATS TO TURN OUT.

THE OTHER FACTOR HERE, I THINK WE HAVEN'T TALKED ABOUT, GOING TO PLAY A HUGE ROLE, AND IN ANY CAMPAIGN, IT'S THE UNKNOWN YOU HAVE TO PREPARE FOR.

THAT UNKNOWN IS THE ROE v. WADE DECISION AND GOING TO HAVE AN ENORMOUS EFFECT ON WHAT HAPPENS IN NOVEMBER, IF THE U.S. SUPREME COURT SOMEHOW MODIFIES OR TURNS OVER ROE v. WADE.

TIM: SO WHAT DOES THAT AFFECT?

>> OUR POLLING SHOWS THAT TWO-THIRDS OF MICHIGANDERS BELIEVE ROE v. WADE SHOULD BE LEFT IN PLACE.

TWO-THIRDS OF MICHIGANDERS BELIEVE THAT THE 1931 LAW BANNING ABORTION SHOULD BE OVERTURNED.

I SUSPECT THIS WEEK GOVERNOR WHITMER HAS SEEN SIMILAR NUMBERS WHICH EXPLAINS HER MOVE TO THE SUPREME COURT, BUT WHEN YOU LOOK AT THOSE INDEPENDENTS, 71% OF INDEPENDENTS SAY ROE v. WADE SHOULD BE LEFT IN PLACE.

THAT'S WHERE YOU WANT TO BE ON THE SIDE OF INDEPENDENTS.

TIM: SO IS IT FAIR TO SAY THAT THE ABORTION ISSUE COULD BE A DETERMINING FACTOR IN THE RACE FOR GOVERNOR?

ANSWER THAT QUESTION IN LESS THAN TEN SECONDS.

>> ABSOLUTELY IT COULD BE, AND IT COULD BE A SHOCK TO THE POLITICAL RACES.

TIM: THANK YOU, SIR, GOOD TO SEE YOU, BILL, THANK YOU FOR BEING HERE.

JORDYN, THANK YOU.

KYLE.

NEXT WEEK, MORE "OFF THE RECORD."

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