♪ >> GOOD EVENING, AND WELCOME TO THE SPECIAL ELECTION 2022 EDITION OF "ARIZONA HORIZON."

I'M TED SIMONS.

IT IS ELECTION NIGHT, AND FOR THE NEXT HALF HOUR WE'LL HAVE RESULTS AND ANALYSIS OF THE DAY'S PRIMARY VOTE.

JOINING US IS GOP POLITICAL ANALYST ANNA ROMERO FERGUSON AND JOHN FEDDERSON FROM HUSH BLACKWELL STRATEGIES.

GOOD TO YOU HAVE IN PERSON FOR A CHANGE.

WE SEE YOU ON THE ZOOMS AND EVERYTHING.

LET'S JUMP RIGHT IN HERE AND START WITH THE GOVERNOR'S RACE ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE.

ALL EYES AROUND THE COUNTRY ARE WATCHING THIS THING.

EARLY VOTES IN, KARRIN TAYLOR ROBSON WITH THE LEAD.

>> IT'S LOOKING GOOD FOR KARRIN.

THERE'S A LONG WAY TO GO.

WE HAVE 40% OF THE ELECTION DAY VOTE IN.

THE EARLY BALLOT RETURNS, THOSE FAVORED KARRIN HEAVILY WHICH WAS THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM.

KARI LAKE VOTERS ARE DAY OF VOTERS.

THE BIG QUESTION IS, ONE, HOW MANY BALLOTS ARE OUTSTANDING AND TWO, HOW MANY PEOPLE PHYSICALLY DROPPED OFF EARLY BALLOT AT POLLING LOCATION WHICH TAKES TIME TO PROCESS AND COUNT.

>> DEMOCRATS, HOW DO YOU FEEL ABOUT THIS?

>> I THINK DEMOCRATS ARE FEELING GOOD WITH KATIE HOBBS' NOT UNEXPECTED, RESOUNDING VICTORY.

FOCUSED ON THE GENERAL ELECTION KNOWING THIS WAS GOING TO HAPPEN AND CAN GET THAT STARTED.

IT IS SURPRISING TO SEE KARRIN DO SO WELL CONSIDERING THE POLLS LEADING INTO HERE.

WHY IT MAY NOT BE AS UNEXPECTED AS WE THOUGHT IS FIRST OF ALL, IT'S A HEAD-TO-HEAD RACE, AND THAT ALLOWS KARRIN TO ESTABLISH HERSELF A LITTLE BETTER BUT SHE SPENT $15 MILLION OF HER OWN MONEY.

WHEN YOU HAVE THE RESOURCES, IT'S EASIER TO TELL YOUR STORY.

THE IDEA THIS WAS A MODERATE TRADITIONAL REPUBLICAN AGAINST A TRUMP POPULIST IS A MYTH.

SHE RAN A REPUBLICAN FAR RIGHT RACE, AND THERE IS LITTLE DAYLIGHT BETWEEN HER AND KARI FROM A POLICY PERSPECTIVE.

WHAT YOU ENDED UP WITH IS ONE CANDIDATE HAD A TRUMP ENDORSEMENT, ONE DIDN'T BUT RUNNING ON BASICALLY THE SAME MESSAGE.

>> DO YOU AGREE WITH THAT?

>> TO AN EXTENT, KARRIN TAYLOR ROBSON IS A REPUBLICAN, THE NOTION THAT KARI LAKE WAS TRYING TO SAY KARRIN IS A RINO IS COMPLETELY FAR-FETCHED.

SHE HAD A BROADER MESSAGE, KARI LAKE FOCUSED ON THE TRUMP PLATFORM AND RELITIGATING THE 2020 ELECTION VERSE TALKING ABOUT WHAT ARIZONA VOTERS CARE ABOUT.

KARRIN WAS CAMPAIGNING TO GET THE SUPPORT OF ALL REPUBLICANS.

>> WE HAVE A LONG WAY TO GO, DO YOU EXPECT IT TO TIGHTEN?

>> I EXPECT IT TO TIGHTEN BUT AT THE END OF THE DAY KARRIN PULLS IT OFF.

>> ARE YOU HAPPY IT'S KARRIN TAYLOR ROBSON OR CONCERNED?

>> I BELIEVE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM THAT KARI LAKE WILL BE EASIER FOR KATIE HOBBS TO BEAT.

I LIVED THROUGH 2016, AND THE IDEA THEY'RE BEATABLE, THEY CAN STILL WIN, KARI LAKE WINNING THIS ELECTION WOULD BE A DISASTER FOR ARIZONA.

DEMOCRATS ARE CONFLICTED.

LORNA IS ABSOLUTELY RIGHT.

A LONG WAY TO GO.

THE RETURNS, IT'S A LONG SLOG FOR KARI TO COME FROM BEHIND.

>> GO TO THE U.S. SENATE RACE, AND AS FAR AS DEMOCRATS ARE CONCERNED, DEMOCRATIC INCUMBENT MARK KELLY, NO CONTEST THERE.

OVER TO THE REPUBLICAN SIDE AND BLAKE MASTERS, AND I WANT TO ASK YOU, AND THIS I THINK BRINGS UP THE POINT EARLIER THAT THE GOVERNOR'S RACE IS A MANO-A-MANO FOR TWO WOMEN AGAINST EACH OTHER.

THIS WAS DIFFUSE AND THE TRUMP CANDIDATE'S DOING WELL IN MASTERS.

>> THERE'S A HUGE DIFFERENCE WHEN IT COMES TO HOW IMPORTANT OR IMPACTFUL ENDORSEMENT CAN BE WHEN IT'S HEAD-TO-HEAD A COMPETITIVE PRIMARY.

WHEN YOU HAVE FOUR OR FIVE CANDIDATES RUNNING IN A PRIMARY, YOU ONLY NEED A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE VOTE TO CROSS THE FINISH LINE.

FOR BLAKE MASTERS TO HAVE, OBVIOUSLY, THE PETER THIEL MACHINE BACKING HIM.

HE WAS ON TV JUST AS MUCH AS JIM LAMON, AND TO HAVE THE TRUMP ENDORSEMENT BOOSTED HIS NAME ID.

THAT'S ANOTHER ISSUE, MOST OF THE CANDIDATES WERE UNKNOWN IN THE RACE, SO IT HELPED HIM, WHICH IS DIFFERENT DYNAMIC THAN WHAT HAPPENED WITH KARI LAKE AND THE GUBERNATORIAL CASE.

>> CAN BE ARGUED MOST OF THE CANDIDATES ARE UNKNOWN EXCEPT FOR MARK BRNOVICH.

WHAT HAPPENED THERE?

>> MARK BRNOVICH, DESPITE HAVING WON STATEWIDE AND HAVING NAME RECOGNITION IS NOT A GREAT CAMPAIGNER.

HE DOESN'T WORK AS HARD AS OPPONENTS, THOSE THINGS COUPLED WITH THE GUYS WHO WERE TRUMP CANDIDATES AND WERE ON TV NONSTOP SPELLED DOOM FOR BRNOVICH.

>> DEMOCRATS AGAIN, THE INCUMBENT MARK KELLY, NO CONTEST, RUNNING UNOPPOSED.

LET'S MOVE ON SECRETARY OF STATE RACE.

START WITH THE DEMOCRATS ON THIS ONE.

ADRIAN FONTES, LAST I CHECKED, FIVE SOME ODD-POINT LEAD OVER REGINALD BOLDING.

THAT TIGHTENED UP.

SEEMED LIKE A NIP AND TUCK RACE FROM THE START.

>> I DON'T KNOW.

IT'S NOT SURPRISING TO MOST OF US ADRIAN FONTES IS OUT TO AN EARLY LEAD.

HE'S WON COUNTYWIDE BEFORE, NAME RECOGNITION, CENT AMONG DEMOCRATIC ACTIVISTS IN THE SPACE HAVING BEEN THE COUNTY RECORDER AND THE ONE ON THE FRONT LINES IN THE 2020 ELECTION, VERSUS A GUY KNOWN AROUND THE CAPITOL IN REGGIE BOLDING, BUT HAD TO COME FROM BEHIND.

IT WAS A SURPRISINGLY NASTY RACE, SHALL WE SAY?

HAVING SEEN ADRIAN COME OUT EARLY IS NOT SURPRISING BECAUSE OF THOSE THINGS.

>> BEING WELL-KNOWN AROUND THE CAPITOL DIDN'T DO TOO MUCH.

AS FAR AS REPUBLICANS ARE CONCERNED, WHO DO REPUBLICANS WANT TO SEE WIN THE RACE?

>> IN TERMS OF DEMOCRATS?

>> YES.

>> I THINK THEY'RE FINE WITH EITHER ONE.

I THINK BOTH OF THEM HAVE THEIR OWN BAGGAGE THEY BRING TO THE TABLE THAT REPUBLICANS ARE GOING CAPITALIZE ON DURING THE GENERAL ELECTION.

WE'VE SEEN REGINALD BOLDING LEADING HIS OWN SEAT FOR EXPENDITURE GROUP SUPPORTING HIS CAMPAIGN WHICH IS HIGHLY ILLEGAL.

FONTES HAS MADE CONTROVERSIAL COMMENTS.

REPUBLICANS WILL BE FINE EITHER WAY.

>> SPEAKING OF FIRE BRAND, ANOTHER TRUMP ENDORSED CANDIDATE DOING WELL.

>> CONTESTED PRIMARY.

SO YOU'RE SPLITTING THE VOTE FOUR OR FIVE DIFFERENT WAYS, AGAIN WITH A BUNCH OF CANDIDATES THAT DON'T HAVE NAME ID.

SO WHEN MARK FINCHEM GOT THE TRUMP ENDORSEMENT, IT OPENED HIM UP TO THE ELECTOR AND EARNED MEDIA HE NEEDED BECAUSE PEOPLE WEREN'T SPENDING MONEY IN THE PRIMARY.

>> BACK TO THE CAPITOL OF BEING AT THE CAPITOL, SHAWNNA BOLICK AND MICHELLE UGENTI-RITA, WHERE ARE THEY IN THE RACE?

>> EASY WHEN YOU SPEND ALL YOUR TIME IN THE ARIZONA BELTWAY TO THINK YOU ARE MORE WELL KNOWN THAN YOU ARE.

LORNA ABSOLUTELY NAILED IT.

NO ONE KNOWS WHO THE FOLKS ARE EXCEPT FOR THE ACTIVATED TRUMP BASE KNOWS WHO MARK FINCHEM IS, WHEN HE GOT THE ENDORSEMENT, THAT PART OF THE PARTY HEARD OF HIM AND VOTED FOR HIM.

>> DO DEMOCRATS FEEL GOOD ABOUT FINCHEM WINNING THIS RACE?

>> I DON'T THINK ANYONE SHOULD FEEL GOOD ABOUT FINCHEM WINNING THIS RACE, SOMEBODY INVOLVED IN THE JANUARY 6 INSURRECTION.

LORNA MENTIONED THAT FONTES IS A BOMBASTIC PERSONALITY, ABSOLUTELY TRUE.

SOMEONE LIKE HIM RUNNING AGAINST MARK FINCHEM, HE'D BE A GUY TO POINT OUT EVERYTHING ABOUT ALL THE WEAKNESSES FINCHEM HAS AND WHY HE SHOULDN'T BE RUNNING IN AN ELECTION.

>> CAN REPUBLICANS RALLY AROUND A MARINE AND THE ELECTIONS GUY IN FONTES?

>> DEPENDS ON WHAT KIND OF CAMPAIGN FONTES RUNS BETWEEN NOW AND THE GENERAL.

MANY RAN A VERY TRUMP-ESQUE CAMPAIGN.

THAT DOESN'T LEAD TO A STATEWIDE WIN FOR REPUBLICANS.

SAW THIS WITH MARTHA McSALLY LOSING TWO U.S. SENATE RACES RUNNING OFF A TRUMP PLATFORM.

ALSO DEPENDS ON THE RHETORIC FROM THE LEFT MOVING FORWARD.

SO WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE, BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL BASED ON HOW HE RUNS HIS CAMPAIGN, IF HE'S ABLE TO GET REPUBLICANS AROUND HIM, HE HAS A CHANCE, BUT DOES OPEN AN OPPORTUNITY FOR DEMOCRATS.

>> THE PROBLEM WITH A SHORT GENERAL ELECTION IN ARIZONA IS DOESN'T LEAVE YOU TIME TO PIVOT FROM TRUMP POPULISM TO AVERAGE ARIZONA VOTERS.

KARRIN TAYLOR ROBSON, MAYBE SHE'LL DO IT, MARK FINCHEM, I DON'T THINK.

>> THAT'S A BIG PIVOT.

KRIS MAYES RUNNING UNOPPOSED, ANOTHER TRUMP ENDORSED CANDIDATE IS DOING RELATIVELY WELL, ABE HAMADEH, FOUR POINTS OVER ROD GLASSMAN.

>> CONTESTED PRIMARY.

EARLY POLLING BEFORE TRUMP ENDORSED IN THAT RACE SHOWED PEOPLE, THE UNDECIDEDS.

RODNEY GLASSMAN WAS AHEAD IN THE POLLS BECAUSE HE HAS BUILTIN ID BECAUSE HE'S RUN IN THE PAST.

ABE GETTING THE TRUMP ENDORSEMENT GAVE HIM THE NAME ID HE NEEDED.

A CONTESTED PRIMARY, HE CAN PULL IT OFF.

RODNEY GLASSMAN, THIS MIGHT BE HIS CHANCE.

>> THEY'RE BOTH PRO-TRUMPERS, CLIMBING ALL OVER EACH OTHER TO BE THE MOST PRO-TRUMP, AND IN THAT RACE, ANDREW GOULD, WE'RE TALKING ABOUT A RELATIVELY, A GUY WITH GRAVITAS THERE, NO CHANCE, HE'S WAY BACK.

>> IF YOU'RE NOT GOING TO RUN AS A FAR RIGHT POPULIST, YOU'RE NOT GOING TO WIN.

THAT'S THE LESSON KARRIN TAYLOR ROBSON LEARNED EARLY, SHE MIMICKED THE CAMPAIGN AND WHY IT DIDN'T GO WELL FOR BEAU LANE AND FOLKS WHO ARE RUNNING AGAINST GLASSMAN AND HAMADEH.

>> DO DEMOCRATS FEEL GOOD ABOUT HAMADEH RUNNING AGAINST KRIS MAYES?

>> THEY DO.

THE BIG NEWS OF THE NIGHT NATIONALLY IS THE ABORTION AMENDMENT IN KANSAS, AND UNLIKE IN PREVIOUS CYCLES WHERE IT'S A POLITICAL TRUISM THAT ABORTION AND POLITICS ARE NOT A WINNER FOR DEMOCRATS, THIS WAS AN AMAZING, THE FIRST REAL REFERENDUM SINCE ROE WAS OVERTURNED.

THAT IS SOMETHING KRIS MAYES IS GOING TO TALK ABOUT IN THE CAMPAIGN AND HOW SHE WILL BE ON THE FRONT LINES PROTECTING BODILY AUTONOMY AND REPRODUCTIVE RIGHTS, THAT IS GOING TO BE A WINNING STRATEGY.

A YEAR FOLKS ARE CONCERNED IT'S NOT A GREAT YEAR FOR DEMOCRATS, THE ISSUE COULD TURN THE TABLES AND KRIS MAYES IS UNIQUELY QUALIFIED TO MAKE THAT AN ISSUE.

>> WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THE ARGUMENT.

WHAT'S HAPPENING IN KANSAS HAS GOTTEN EVERYONE'S ATTENTION?

>> IT DOES.

INTERESTING DYNAMIC AND OBVIOUSLY ROE BEING OVERTURNED, IT WILL HAVE DIFFERENT IMPACTS SPECIFICALLY IN MARICOPA COUNTY AND THE SWING DISTRICTS.

ALL ABOUT MESSAGING, WHAT REPUBLICANS SAY MOVING FORWARD AND DEMOCRATS DO.

I DON'T THINK IT'S A SLAM-DUNK ISSUE FOR DEMOCRATS, I THINK THEY COULD GO TOO FAR ON THE ISSUE POTENTIALLY WITH THE STATEWIDE CANDIDATES THEY HAVE, BUT THERE'S ALSO OTHER VULNERABILITIES AND REPUBLICANS IN STATEWIDE GENERAL ELECTION, IF THEY FOCUS ON JOBS AND THE ECONOMY, THE FAILURE IN WASHINGTON, D.C.

UNDER JOE BIDEN, HOW THE DEMOCRATS IN ARIZONA ARE BASICALLY GOING TO FOLLOW HIS AGENDA, I THINK THAT'S GOING TO TRUMP ANY ABORTION CONVERSATION THAT THE LEFT TRIES TO PURSUE.

>> MOVE TO SUPERINTENDENT OF PUBLIC INSTRUCTION, DEMOCRATS, KATHY HOFFMAN, DEMOCRATS RUNNING UNOPPOSED AND INCUMBENT HERE AS WELL.

REPUBLICANS, MY GOODNESS, TOM HORNE IS BACK, ISN'T HE?

>> HE'S BACK.

>> 12 POINTS.

HE'S GOT A 12-POINT LEAD?

>> TALK ABOUT A NAME ID.

HE WAS SUPERINTENDENT AND AG BEFORE.

ONE OF THE THINGS THAT VOTERS HAVE SHORT MEMORIES.

SOMETIMES YOU THINK SOMEONE'S POLITICAL CAREER IS DONE, AND THEY COME BACK.

WE'VE SEEN THAT WITH THE LEGISLATIVE RACES THAT ARE HAPPENING TONIGHT.

SO NOT SURPRISING BUT I THINK IT'S TOUGH FOR KATHY HOFFMAN, SHE'S BEEN MIDDLE OF THE ROAD AS SUPERINTENDENT, I DON'T THINK IT'S A SLAM-DUNK FOR TOM HORNE.

>> WE SHOULD MENTION ANOTHER CAPITOL CASUALTY, MICHELLE UDALL 15 POINTS BEHIND, AND KNOWN FOR EDUCATION STANCES AT THE LEGISLATURE?

>> CORRECT.

IT COMES DOWN TO NAME ID.

AND I'VE PLENTY OF POLLING WHERE YOU POLL YOUR LEGISLATOR AND PEOPLE DON'T KNOW THEM IN THE OWN DISTRICT.

AND SHE DIDN'T HAVE A ROBUST CAMPAIGN, IT'S HARD TO RUN A STATEWIDE CAMPAIGN.

>> IF IT'S HORNE AND HOFFMAN, WHAT DO YOU SEE THERE?

>> DEMOCRATS RUNNING WELL AT THE TOP OF THE TICKET, BIDEN RUNNING THE STATE, MARK KELLY, DOWN BALLOT THE RACE IS HARDER TO WIN.

THAT CHANGES WITH KATHY HOFFMAN VERSUS TOM HORNE.

KATHY HOFFMAN HAS RUN A VERY COMPETENT DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION AFTER TURBULENT YEARS, THEY VOTED FOR HER STATEWIDE ONCE BEFORE, AND HIS INSISTENCE ON FOCUSING ON FRINGE ISSUES ON PUBLIC EDUCATION WHEN PARENTS WANT THEIR KIDS TO GO TO SCHOOL AND HAVE A GOOD EDUCATION, KATHY HOFFMAN IS ABLE TO STAVE OFF THE CHALLENGE.

>> CORPORATION COMMISSION, KEVTHOMPSON, NICK MYERS, THAT'S TIGHTENING UP ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE.

YOU SEE THAT HOLDING AS IT IS?

>> KIM OWENS COULD SNAG THE SECOND SPOT BUT THE DOWNBALLOT RACES WHERE THERE'S SO MUCH NOISE IN THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY, HAVING THE GUBERNATORIAL RACE, U.S. SENATE, HEARING STUFF ABOUT SECRETARY OF STATE, AND WHEN REPUBLICANS START GETTING DOWNBALLOT, CORPORATION COMMISSION, THEY HAVEN'T BEEN HEARING MUCH ABOUT IT, AND DIFFICULT TO FIGURE OUT WHEN THEY RUN AS A TEAM.

THE TWO GENTLEMEN IN THE RACE DID.

KIM OWENS HAS A CHANCE.

USUALLY WHEN YOU ARE SINGLE SHOT YOU HAVE OPPORTUNITY, BUT WE CAN SEE CHANGES.

>> SHE'S CATCHING UP THERE.

DEMOCRATS ARE ALREADY IN, THEY GOING TO SUCCEED IN THE GENERAL HERE?

>> THE RACE FOR CORP. COMIS ALWAYS A RACE, VOTERS DON'T KNOW WHO THE FOLKS ARE.

LOST IN THE SHUFFLE.

IN A YEAR WHERE ALL THE MONEY IN THE WORLD IS SPENT ON THE SENATE AND THE GOVERNOR'S RACE, THAT DYNAMIC IS MORE EXACERBATED.

THEY HAVE A GREAT CHANCE.

KENNEDY HAS BEEN ON THE COMMISSION, SHE'S WELL KNOWN, LAUREN HAS A GOOD NAME TO REMEMBER ON THE BALLOT.

I THINK THAT DOES HELP.

SHE'S GOT A COMPELLING ISSUE IN THE ADVOCACY FOR SOLAR IN THE STATE.

THAT'S A TOUGH ONE TO HASN'T CAP BECAUSE OF HOW LOST IT WILL GET IN THE OTHERS.

>> THE TWO SPOTS THERE.

FOR TREASURER, NO CONTEST FOR THE DEMOCRAT SIDE, MARTIN QUEZADA, KIMBERLY YEE, REMEMBER THE DEBATE, TREASURY DEBATES RARELY DO, THIS ONE GOT LIVE, YEE IS RUNNING AWAY WITH IT.

>> JEFF WENINGER PROBABLY NOT KNOWN OUTSIDE OF HIS DISTRICT.

HE WAS IN THE CITY COUNCIL BEFORE.

THAT HARD TO RUN A STATEWIDE CAMPAIGN WITHOUT SOMETHING THAT'S GOING TO BOOST AND YOU HE WASN'T ABLE TO GET THERE.

>> IS ANYONE AT THE LEGISLATURE GOING TO RUN FOR STATEWIDE OFFICE AGAIN?

THIS IS A LOT OF CASUALTIES.

>> SEEN THIS THROUGHOUT THE YEARS, LEGISLATURES THAT RUN FOR STATE OR CONGRESS, THERE IS THE PERCEPTION THERE'S BUILT-IN NAME ID OR INFRASTRUCTURE OR RACE WHICH IS COMPLETELY DIFFERENT WHEN YOU ARE RUNNING LEGISLATIVE RACE OR CONGRESS.

>> SPEAKING OF CONGRESS, CD1 AND START WITH SCHWEIKERT AND THIS WAS PEOPLE WATCHING THIS, AND WE'LL START WITH YOU EVEN THOUGH YOU ARE A DEMOCRAT AND THESE ARE REPUBLICANS, SCHWEIKERT HAS A COMFORTABLE LEAD EARLY ON.

>> VOTERS HAVE BEEN ELECTING SCHWEIKERT IN THIS DISTRICT OR SIMILAR DISTRICT FOR SOME TIME.

IT'S NOT SURPRISING, DESPITE ALL THE DRAMA AND THE NASTINESS INTO THIS THAT SCHWEIKERT WAS GOING TO PULL IT OUT.

HE'S KNOWN TO VOTERS, GREAT NAME RECOGNITION, VERY EFFECTIVE IN CONGRESS.

THAT'S NOT A SURPRISE.

>> DEMOCRATIC SIDE, JEVIN HODGE LOOKS LIKE THE MAN, DOES HE HAVE A SHOT AGAINST THE SCHWEIKERT.

>> I THINK HE DOES.

HE'S A DYNAMIC SPEAKER, THIS IS A MUCH MORE COMPETITIVE RACE.

PROBABLY STILL WILL DESPITE WHAT I SAID EARLIER A TOUGH YEAR FOR DEMOCRATS.

YOU HAVE TO REMEMBER THAT.

ON AVERAGE, THE YOUTH AND THE EXCITEMENT THAT JEVIN BRINGS TO THE RACE AGAINST SCHWEIKERT AND HIS -- ADMITTEDLY HE'S GOT WEAKNESSES THAT NORTON HAS FAILED TO EXPLOIT, A GENERAL ELECTORATE WILL CARE MORE ABOUT.

JEVIN HAS AN OPPORTUNITY.

>> SCHWEIKERT STILL?

>> SCHWEIKERT IS GOING TO BE FINE.

JEVIN IS GREAT, IF HE WAS IN A DIFFERENT DISTRICT, IT WILL BE MORE COMPETITIVE.

>> ELI CRANE, WHO IS ELI CRANE AND WHY DOES HE HAVE SUCH A BIG LEAD OVER WALT BLACKMAN, A LOT OF FOLKS THOUGHT MIGHT BE THE GUY.

>> ELI CRANE GOT THE TRUMP ENDORSEMENT.

HE HAS RUN A VERY CONSERVATIVE MAGA-ESQUE CAMPAIGN FROM THE START.

HE DOES THE SHOCK AND AWE CAMPAIGN STYLE WHICH RESONATED WITH THE REPUBLICAN VOTERS.

TO HAVE THAT TRANSLATE TO A GENERAL, HE'S GOING TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME.

I IMAGINE THE FOLKS IN D.C. ARE EXCITED IT'S ELI, THE REPUBLICAN COMING OUT OF THE RACE, IT WILL MAKE TOM O'HALLERAN'S RACE EASIER, IT'S A TOUGH UPHILL BATTLE.

>> FOLKS IN ARIZONA EXCITED ABOUT THAT.

>> OPTIMISTIC.

DESPITE THE FACT THE DISTRICT GOT MUCH MORE DIFFICULT FOR O'HALLERAN, HE KNOWS THE DISTRICT, KNOWS HOW TO WORK, KNOWS HOW TO CONNECT BEYOND PARTY AFFILIATION.

IT WILL BE A TIGHT ONE BUT TOM PULLS IT OUT.

>> MOVE TO CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT 4.

GREG STANTON RUNNING UNOPPOSED AND NO CONTEST FOR THE REPUBLICAN SIDE.

KELLY COOPER WITH EARLY SIX-POINT LEAD.

ANOTHER LIVELY DEBATE, A LOT OF VOICES IN THIS DEBATE, AND RUNNING LOPEZ, WHAT'S GOING ON HERE?

>> SPLIT PRIMARY, A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE SHOCKED, A NUMBER OF FOLKS THOUGHT TANYA WHEELLESS WAS THE PERSON TO BEAT IN THE PRIMARY.

IT'S NOT LOOKING LIKE IT RIGHT NOW.

IT'S WHO HAS THE POPULIST RHETORIC, RIGHT?

AND COOPER HAD A LOT OF CASH HE DUMPED INTO THE RACE, TOO.

WHEN YOU'RE DEALING WITH PRETTY MUCH A NEW DISTRICT AND A BUNCH OF REPUBLICANS THAT DON'T HAVE THE NAME ID, WHOEVER HAS THE RESOURCES TO GET THEIR MESSAGE OUT THERE.

>> STANTON?

PROBLEMS?

ANY CONCERNS?

>> THIS IS ANOTHER RACE WHERE THE REPUBLICAN HAS, TO WIN THE RACE, HAS TO RUN AS EXTREME TRUMP POPULIST THAT IS NOT GOING TO GO WELL AGAINST GREG STANTON, WHO IS KIND OF THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD, MODERATE DEMOCRAT EFFECTIVE IN D.C., PEOPLE ARE USED TO VOTING FOR HIM.

MAYBE A DIFFERENT REPUBLICAN WOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE.

WITH ONLY A COUPLE MONTHS UNTIL ELECTION DAY IT'S TOUGH FOR THE PERSON TO NO LONGER BE THE TRUMP POPULIST RUNNING AGAINST GREG.

>> JUMPING TO CD5, ANDY BIGGS WILL WIN THAT.

CD6, HUGE EARLY LEAD, WHAT'S GOING ON THERE?

>> THIS IS AN INTERESTING DISTRICT, AND I THINK AN INTERESTING CAMPAIGN FOR PEOPLE TO PAY ATTENTION TO.

JUAN CISCOMANI, FORMER GUBERNATORIAL AIDE FOCUSED ON THE ISSUES OF TUCSON AND THE COMMUNITY, RIGHT?

VERY DIFFERENT FROM OTHER REPUBLICAN CAMPAIGNS THIS CYCLE.

WASN'T FOCUSED ON 2020 ELECTION.

WASN'T FOCUSED ON THE TRUMP PLATFORM.

HE WAS TALKING ABOUT WHAT HE WANTS TO DO FOR THE COMMUNITY AND WASHINGTON, D.C., AND IT'S PAID OFF PRETTY WELL, AND I THINK THAT GOES TO SHOW SOME OF THE SHIFTING OF MESSAGING THAT A NUMBER OF THE REPUBLICANS SHOULD DO GOING INTO THE GENERAL, ESPECIALLY THOSE WHO HAVE THE COMPETITIVE RACE.

>> KRISTEN ANGLE UP BIG OVER HERNANDEZ, ARE YOU SURPRISED BY THAT?

>> DAN IS A GREAT GUY, A GREAT LEGISLATOR BUT FELL VICTIM TO THE TREND WE FOUND WHERE HIS NAME WAS NOT AS WELL KNOWN OUTSIDE OF HIS LEGISLATIVE DISTRICT AS MUCH AS HE THOUGHT, AND FRANKLY, ENGEL RAN A GOOD, STRONG CAMPAIGN AND SHE IS A PROGRESSIVE WHITE WOMAN IN A RACE WHERE THAT'S WHAT THE ELECTORATE LOOKS LIKE, FRANKLY.

SHE'S GOING TO BE A STRONG CANDIDATE IN THE ELECTION.

>> IF I CAN MAKE A DISTINCTION AGAINST LEGISLATORS RUNNING FOR OTHER OFFICE.

THE DETERMINING FACTOR IS THEY RESIGN ARE AND CAMPAIGN FULL-TIME.

A NUMBER OF THE FOLKS KEPT SEATS AT THE LEGISLATURE WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO DO WHEN THE SESSION RAN AS LONG AS IT DID, YOU CAN'T FUND-RAISING AS MUCH AS YOU LIKE.

KIRSTEN ENGEL RESIGNED FROM HER SEAT.

>> THAT'S THE ONLY THING I COULD FIND.

CD7, LUIS, WHY DOES HE HAVE SUCH A BIG LEAD?

>> I HAVE NO IDEA.

[LAUGHTER] >> HE'S RUNNING AGAINST RAUL GRIJALVA.

DEBBIE LESKO DOESN'T HAVE OPPONENT IN EITHER PARTY.

CD9, PAUL GOSAR ALL DAY.

HE'S, THEY LOVE HIM UP THERE.

>> PEOPLE HAVE TRIED, AND THEY JUST LOVE THEMSELVES SOME PAUL GOSAR, IT IS WHAT IT IS.

>> SANDRA DOWLING, HAS A NAME IN MARICOPA COUNTY, DOES SHE HAVE A NAME IN THAT DISTRICT?

>> PROBABLY NOT.

NOT TO THE EXTENT OF PAUL GOSAR.

SO THERE WOULD HAVE TO BE SIGNIFICANT SHIFTING OF HIS CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT TO MAKE IT COMPETITIVE OR SOMETHING ELSE HAPPENS WITH HIM, BUT GOSAR IS SITTING PRETTY.

>> ADAM MORGAN WAS SUPPOSED TO PROVIDE COMPETITION THERE, DOESN'T LOOK LIKE IT'S HAPPENING.

THE LEAD FOR THE GOVERNOR'S RACE, KARRIN TAYLOR ROBSON HAS EARLY LEAD.

WE'LL SEE HOW LONG LAKE IS CLIMBING BACK IN IT, SEE WHAT THAT DOES AS TIME MOVES ON.

IT LOOKS LIKE IT'S STAYING -- A LITTLE CLOSER, SEVEN, EIGHT POINTS NOW, WAS AT NINE, TEN.

COUPLE OF OTHER IDEAS, RUSTY BOWERS TROUNCED BY DAVID FARNSWORTH, WHAT DOES THAT SAY ABOUT THE REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE RIGHT NOW?

>> LOT OF CONCERNS ABOUT THE REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE AND WHO TURNS OUT IN THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY.

THERE WAS A CONCERTED EFFORT BY GROUPS TRUMP ALIGNED TO TAKE OUT THE MODERATE REPUBLICAN INCUMBENTS AND BACK THEIR OWN NEW CANDIDATE.

DAVID FARNSWORTH, THE OPPONENT TO RUSTY BOWERS.

THE MONEY CAME INTO RUN THE HARSH CAMPAIGN AGAINST SITTING REPUBLICANS.

>> WENDY ROGERS, AN EARLY RELATIVELY BIG LEAD OVER KELLY TOWNSEND.

DOES THAT SURPRISE YOU?

>> NOT AT ALL.

>> YOU ARE NOT SURPRISED BY ANYTHING.

>> WENDY ROGERS, MORE THAN ANY POLITICIAN IN ARIZONA HAS BEEN THE DARLING OF THE TRUMP RIGHT.

RAISED GUBERNATORIAL AMOUNTS OF MONEY, AND SHE IS LOCK STEP, THEY'RE AS CLOSE AS YOU CAN BE.

DOESN'T SURPRISE ME SHE IS COME OUT AHEAD.

>> RACHEL MITCHELL AND GEENA GODBEHERE IS A TRUMP -- THERE'S THE MATCHUP, THE TRUMP CANDIDATE DOESN'T DO QUITE SO WELL?

>> EXACTLY.

IT'S A NUMBERS GAME.

ANY CAMPAIGN KNOWS THEY HAVE TO MAKE SURE THEIR VOTERS IDENTIFY WHO THE PEOPLE ARE AND IT'S A LOT DIFFERENT DYNAMIC WHEN IT'S A HEAD-TO-HEAD VERSUS A MATCHUP OF FOUR OR FIVE PEOPLE.

>> WHAT DO WE TAKE FROM ALL THIS?

WE HAVE A LONG WAY TO GO, BUT SOME OF THE THINGS ARE TAKING SHAPE AND SEEING WHAT'S HAPPENING.

WHAT DO YOU THINK IS HAPPENING?

>> WHAT YOU'RE SEEING IS DESPITE A FEW OUTLIERS, A WIN FOR THE TRUMP RIGHT, AND THE FOLKS WINS WHO WERE NOT NECESSARILY ENDORSED, BACK TO KARRIN TAYLOR ROBSON, THERE'S A LOT OF DISCUSSION AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW IF SHE HOLDS ONTO THE LEAD ABOUT HER BEING A GLENN YOUNGKIN STYLE MODERATE BUSINESS REPUBLICAN, IF YOU LOOK HOW SHE'S RUN, ABSOLUTELY NOT TRUE.

IT'S A VICTORY ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE, I THINK IT'S A VICTORY FOR FAR RIGHT POPULISM TONIGHT.

>> WHAT DO YOU TAKE FROM TONIGHT SO FAR?

>> I WOULD LIKE TO HAVE TWO DIFFERENT BUCKETS STATEWIDE VERSUS LEGISLATIVE.

WE'RE GOING TO HAVE A MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE LEGISLATURE HANDSDOWN.

AFTER TONIGHT, THE MAJORITY OF THE RACES ARE SETTLED AND DONE.

A HANDFUL OF COMPETITIVE RACES IN NOVEMBER AND REPUBLICANS ARE STILL WELL POSITIONED FOR THOSE, FOR THE STATEWIDE RACES, I DISAGREE WITH MY COLLEAGUE.

I THINK KARRIN IS ABLE TO APPEAL TO A BROADER AUDIENCE, THE REMAINING STATEWIDE CANDIDATES IF THEY'RE THE TRUMP NOMINEES NEED TO FOCUS ON MESSAGING IN NOVEMBER.

>> GOT TO STOP YOU THERE.

THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.

APPRECIATE IT.

>> THANK YOU.

>> THAT'S IT FOR NOW.

I'M TED SIMONS.

THANK YOU FOR JOINING US.

YOU HAVE A GREAT NIGHT.