Support for Arkansas Week provided by the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette.

The Arkansas Times and Little Rock Public Radio.

And hello again, everyone, and thanks very much for being with us.

Two major party conventions and now two major party presidential nominees.

How much of a chance, if any, will those outcomes affect the outcomes in Arkansas?

Not necessarily in the race for the White House, but the down ballot campaigns?

How much spillover, how long?

Any coattails?

The Democrats, having wrapped up their convention in Chicago, former Little Rock Mayor Lottie Shackleford spoke on behalf of the Arkansas delegation during the ceremonial roll call of states and home of the birthplace of President William Jefferson Clinton, who inspired all of us in a place called Hope, Arkansas, cast our vote for Vice President Kamala Harris and Governor Tim Walz.

We'll hear from a couple of local pros, political consultants for both major parties in a few minutes.

But first, as we did following the Republican National Convention, one of the top politicians for his party who watched from his home in Fayetteville, Greg, letting the minority leader of the Arkansas Senate.

Senator, thanks very much for being with us.

And good morning.

Happy to be here.

Based on what you have seen, based on what you have read.

Your first thoughts on the convention and the themes that it struck.

As you note, I watched the convention from here at home in Fayetteville this week.

And I think the thing that's perhaps most notable is that in stark contrast to the RNC, which feels like it was held two or three lifetimes ago, back in June, you saw so much joy, excitement, general enthusiasm.

You saw elected officials offering aspirational vision for our country and making it clear that there can be a place for everyone in our country.

So it's just that's been one of the most refreshing things to see, is that for all of the toxicity that runs rampant through our politics so often there, Democrats at the national convention have demonstrated that there can should be and is a place for joy and fun.

How much can can joy sustain a campaign, though?

This is a bare knuckles enterprise.

Man, I tell you, for the last nine years, having to deal with the other guy at the top of the Republican Party, I think people are genuinely starved for joy and hope and a younger leadership.

I mean, that was obviously one of the things that became a chief concern and ultimately the reason why President Biden bowed out of the race at this late stage.

I think people are so incredibly excited about Vice President Kamala Harris and Governor Tim Walz.

Governor Walz is actually the only of the four people at the top of this ticket whose favorability is above water.

And it's clear to see why he's incredibly relatable.

And you see him emanating joy and being able to connect with everyday Americans in a way that seems increasingly rare in politicians.

So I do think given the compressed time frame of this election, Joy can do quite a lot.

You've seen the enthusiasm in terms of fundraising, you've seen enthusiasm in terms of the crowds at rallies.

And I know from talking to friends who work at the Democratic Party here in Arkansas, they have seen fundraising volunteer signups go up.

And I believe I saw a headline just earlier this week where the secretary of state announced that since Kamala Harris, vice President Harris was clear that she became the nominee.

We've seen 4300 people register to vote in the state of Arkansas.

So I do think there will be some effect.

The pressure on her and on the vice presidential nominee to answer allegations is going to be intense.

It's going to be, as you use the term, again, a bare knuckles enterprise.

Can you stay can they stay on these overarching themes that they tried to strike of optimism and family values, etc.?

I certainly think so, especially if this first month is any indication.

I have a feeling they're going to come out of this convention adding to their lead in the polls.

Now, we obviously can't take anything for granted.

And the last people that need to be told that you can't take anything for granted and you got to play to the whistle are Democrats who remember election night in 2016.

But given again, the compressed time frame here and the excitement you see behind the Harris Walls ticket, I think it's absolutely possible that they can sustain it.

I think it's clear to everybody, including a lot of Republicans, the threat posed by former President Trump and Project 25.

And I think people are going to work incredibly hard between now and when the polls close on election night.

The themes that that the two nominees tried to strike and their supporting cast right to strike.

Will they resonate?

Is there an appetite?

Is there a market for that in in 2024?

I really do think so.

I mean, a lot of times when I talk to people who aren't that politically engaged, I ask why, considering just, you know, how politics shaped our everyday lives from the city level on to the federal level.

And they say that it's just so often so negative that they find it hard to connect or that it's just so toxic.

They just don't want to listen to it.

They don't want have the TV on in front of their children.

And I get that, especially when you look at the man leading the Republican Party these days.

So again, I think people are excited and it's renewing to have candidates that they can be excited about somebody who offers an aspirational vision, someone who makes it clear that they're willing to work for everybody and someone who can have fun and can feel joy.

I'm not so sure if former President Trump has ever felt joy in his life.

So I really do think people are excited about the possibility here.

People are going to start paying more attention.

I imagine the Harris Walsh ticket is going to have to talk a little bit more in terms of detail.

They can't just run completely on vibes between now and election night in November.

But I do think the excitement is there that it's going to carry them and do a lot of good for them.

I can recall a quarter century ago someone coining the phrase it's the economy, stupid.

Now to what extent?

And it is sort of an uneven I mean, inflation is cooling a little bit and wages are up a little bit, but inflation continues to be a driving force.

Every survey indicates that it's lunch bucket issues and Americans aren't yet feeling any relief from inflation or they think they aren't at a minimum.

How is that going to steer the campaign they got?

What, about 60 days remaining?

Yeah, Again, yeah.

The economy is understandably a top concern and it should be.

Even though things are improving, inflation is cooling, unemployment remains low, Job numbers still remain strong despite some recent revisions.

Things are moving in the right direction, but a lot of times consumers are the very last to feel that.

So it's understandable that Americans have concerns, but things are improving, moving in the right direction.

And as former president Bill Clinton noted in his address at the DNC earlier this week, when you look at the history, when it comes to the economy and especially when it comes to jobs under Democratic presidents in modern history, there've been something like 50 million jobs created under Democratic presidents with a net positive or just a million jobs created under Republican presidents.

And that's a statistic that sounds too incredible to be true, but it is.

And so I think, you know, Republicans might have better messaging sometimes when it comes to the economy, but it's proven time and again that when you have a Democrat in the White House, the American economy performs better.

Plainly, there is some enthusiasm nationwide for that for the Democratic ticket.

Do you see any of that filtering down in Arkansas?

Maybe shaping to any extent at all the down ballot races here?

I really do.

I mean, I don't think anybody is unaware that Vice President Harris and Governor Walz face not so much as a steep climb in Arkansas as a sheer cliff.

I don't think anybody's under the illusion that our electoral votes will go to them.

But I do know, just from talking to friends at the state party, talking to our candidates who are out there working hard and talking to voters and having people just reach out, the excitement is real and a lot of these contested races that we know are going to be close.

I really do think it'll make a difference.

I do think House Democrats and potentially Senate Democrats are going to add to their numbers in the legislature.

Certainly, we're not going to be approaching, you know, parity.

But I do think this is going to be a cycle like 2018 where Democrats aren't going to have a net loss of seats in the legislature.

We are going to add to our numbers and we can begin to climb back.

And that's the most important thing.

I'm really more concerned about some parity in the legislature, more about than who has the majority.

I just think the people are better served when the two parties are able to check the other party's worst impulses.

And on the matter of ballot issues, Senator, there are we don't even know what's going to be on the ballot.

But assuming that anything makes it on the ballot, turnout could be essential to the success of some of these some of these issues.

Or so it would seem.

Your thoughts on that and how and how the ticket could possibly shape turnout here?

Absolutely.

Again, the enthusiasm of the ticket is there.

But then if the abortion amendment does make the ballot and Arkansans get a choice, that is, I have no doubt in my mind that the amendment will pass.

We have seen several other states try in the past.

They have put measures on the ballot to protect abortion access, and it has succeeded each and every time, even in conservative states.

I believe Montana just became the eighth state this cycle to put abortion protections on the ballot.

And I have no doubt that in all of those states it's going to succeed.

I believe Arkansans deserve a chance to weigh in on that issue this November.

And I really do think, especially in some of these really close House races, especially up here in northwest Arkansas, that if that amendment does make the ballot, it is going to drive turnout and that turnout could be favorable to Democratic candidates.

Gregg letting is the minority leader of the Arkansas senate, democrat of fayetteville.

Senator, thanks for coming on with us again.

Come back soon.

We'll do.

Thank you, Steve.

And we'll be right back.

Back now with some give and take from a pair of familiar Arkansas weak faces, Republican strategist Bill Vicary and from the Democratic side, consultant Michael Cook.

Gents, thanks as always for coming aboard.

Michael, your party.

So we'll start with you first thoughts anyway on the convention.

This week has been full of the stars from the past and stars of the future.

We heard from President Clinton, who gave a great talk Wednesday night along with Joe Biden, of course, starting off the convention.

And it's clearly a message of freedom, of hope for the future and just pride in America that is just very exciting to see as the Democrats chart their course for victory in November.

What is Joy worth?

Bill?

Victory.

Yeah, look, it's a lot of get out the vote stuff, too.

To Michael's point, I think the Republicans had a very good convention.

Democrats are having a very buttoned up, good convention in Chicago.

I think the fears of protests in the streets and things like that and none of that, 68, it's been very much tamped down and undercut and controlled.

But that's indicative of a party that has yet to actually vote for their nominee.

And so, you know, party bosses got together.

You had, you know, Obama, Biden.

I did think it was a little comical that the president Biden spoke at midnight of when no one was watching television.

One didn't know he could stay up that late.

But beyond that, it's not been a convention that's hurt or helped.

It's just not to believe in these bumps anymore.

Steve, I don't think you get a convention bump any more.

I think everything's already baked in.

The race has tightened dramatically as Democrats have a significant amount of enthusiasm now around the nominee.

And that's what's really moved the needle more than any other convention.

Yeah, about that midnight appearance by Mr. Biden.

Some.

You're not the only one who noticed that.

Were Michael calculated?

No, I think I think it's just a classic case of it went long.

You had so many people who wanted to speak and just sadly, Biden spoke later on the evening.

But, you know, in this age of TikTok videos and YouTube and people watching it on demand, it's not that that big of a deal.

But I disagree with with Bill.

I think Kamala Harris is going to get a big bump out of this convention.

It's been very on message.

In fact, it's been it's been a study in contrasts at the Republican convention a few weeks ago was just sort of doom and gloom and despair.

And this one actually felt like a 1984 Reagan convention, where, you know, people it was, you know, patriotism.

There's a city on a hill.

You know, one thing there was there was a photo that was struck that to me and at the Democratic convention, there were people holding signs up, you know, USA, USA at the Republican convention.

It was mass deportations.

Now, I mean, just a study in contrast of of their hope for the future.

Okay, Bill.

Yeah, I mean, this joke about on day one, Kamala Harris is going to do this or that or whatever it might be.

It's day.

However many.

You know what's been done the last.

Listen, Trump can win this race.

Trump can lose this race over the next 70 days.

What he has to do is march out and say, are you better off now than you were four years ago?

Are you scared to send your kids to your downtown?

And do you worry about this massive hole that we have in the border and what that's doing to the country?

Those three things are winners.

You stick to that.

You tie her to that.

The reason Joe Biden is on at midnight is they don't want anybody to see they don't want anybody to remind the country that she's his vice president, that they've been hand in glove in this whole thing.

So.

However, Trump can get off message, ramble on, and then he'll cost himself the race.

So, you know, are you better off four years ago than you are today?

You are better off four years ago if you're better off today than you were four years ago, four years ago, we were in the middle of the pandemic.

We couldn't even be here.

The economy was in shambles and Joe Biden and Kamala Harris fixed it and got us on the right track.

Unemployment is down.

Job creation is up.

The economy is on the right track.

Granted, inflation is a little bit too high.

And then finally, in terms of immigration, Kamala Harris and Joe Biden are the only ones who actually try to get things done on the border.

Trump was president for years, didn't do didn't do a thing while Kamala Harris and Joe Biden came up with a plan to fix the border.

But Donald Trump killed it because he knew it.

He didn't want them to help that issue to help Democrats.

So I disagree with Bill Leslie over the lunch bucket for just for a second.

And she may get a little bit ahead of the ticket, make it a little help Democratic ticket from the Fed next month, The indications are and inflation is cooling a little bit, but Americans aren't feeling it.

No, because those are very much lagging indicators of where American political sentiment is.

They still you look at any poll, 60, 65% believe the country is on the wrong track.

That's what President Trump has to seize on and say, look, you want more of the same and go buy eggs, Go buy a gallon of milk.

Yeah, go buy gasoline.

Go, go.

Do you worry about sending your daughter to your downtown?

I mean, these are all security issues.

Do you look at this sort of mass whole when the border that we've had and what that's done to the country and continuing to do what do all those things mean?

And they're doom issues for the Democrats.

And that's a reality, unfortunately, for Americans.

And so that's what the Trump campaign message should be.

Do you want more of this or do you want to go back to when we had single digit inflation, 2% inflation, when we had a border policy that remained in Mexico that was working when we didn't have, you know, wars breaking out all over the planet that we have to worry about.

Those are the kinds of things that Trump needs to campaign on a suit.

No question that the Democratic ticket that Miss Harris has been getting has gotten a bump in recent weeks.

The joy is sort of taken.

But can that be sustained?

I think it's a bare knuckle game.

It's this race is going to come down to the wire.

One point I would point out, though, too, Bill, crime was actually higher under Donald Trump than it is under Joe Biden.

Just a little factoid just to make make sure.

But I mean, but but yeah, perception.

I mean, that's a fact as a fact.

Just to be clear, you were safer under Joe Biden than you were under under Donald Trump.

Statistically, just a pure fact.

But the point is, this is I think this is a change election.

And the irony is you have Kamala Harris, who I think is an agent of change versus Donald Trump.

We can go back to the past of chaos and incompetence.

The the the the the overall stupidity of his administration.

In fact, of the 44 Cabinet members that Donald Trump had, 40 of them are refusing to endorse him.

That kind of tells you the dynamic of that, just the the horrible administration that was in fact, who did you not see at the Republican convention?

You didn't see Mike Pence.

You didn't see George Bush.

You have all these people who are who are not there because it's become a cult of personality party.

It's all about Trump and people just don't want to go back to where he was and how he just wants to destroy this country.

This is sort of a 2020 redo that they're going to stick her in a basement.

We can't have Trump.

It's all about Trump.

And that's why I'm saying that's why President Trump has an opportunity here.

They're not going to put forward any issues or ideas.

So so you can forget that this idea of change, change from what?

She's already in charge.

I mean, this is it.

What's the new thing going to be?

I mean, they've been there for a while.

At one point, they had the Senate, the House and the White House.

And so you you clearly see where the country is today.

That's a result of the policies.

So that's not change from what would be my question.

But the reality for President Trump is they can't run on a no message for 70 days.

He's got to focus in on the three issues that I discussed.

You do that.

Then you see those industrial rust Belt states start to flip his way.

But he can't.

He he has to talk about crowd sizes and Hannibal Lecter and all these, you know, all these ridic, you know, and say that Kamala Harris's crowd size were generic.

He can't focus.

He's he's a 78, 78, almost 79 year old man who's just past his prime.

And it's clearly people are seeing that he's just not what it used to be when he showed up in 2015.

Multiple accounts bills have his staff, his advice, everybody's like, get off the personal stuff and go back to issues.

And he doesn't seem to be able to do that.

No, I do too.

Letting.

Well, Trump being Trump, Yeah, he's going to be the person that he's going to be.

And there's no changing that.

I do think the reality, though, as you begin to crystallize the campaign and we move beyond Labor Day and you get into effectively the September October sprint to Election Day, that these issues are going to bubble up more and more.

And it's a lot about paid advertising and what the messages are in these industrial rust Belt states.

So that's what the really the race boils down to Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

I think everything else shakes out the way we think it's going to end up.

The race concentrates in those three states.

Nobody in their right mind would would deem Arkansas as a swing state.

But do you see this national dialog coloring our politics?

Any Michael, any extent?

That's not really.

I don't think it has any effect at all.

You know, I think Kamala Harris probably, you know, energizes Democrats a bit more in terms of getting them out to vote, as Joe Biden would have.

But, you know, I've actually gone back to look at the oh eight election of the 12 election in Arkansas when we had Obama on the ticket, really didn't gin up that significant of turnout among Democratic base voters.

But I do think it's better for Democrats in terms of getting them organized, getting excited and really fighting it out on some of these legislative seats.

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Again, I don't think it really has much here.

I think the narrative is set in.

It's a we're a fire engine red state.

We're going to be a fire engine red state for some time.

And that's that's the reality, I think a good reality for the state.

Nationally, though, again, I go back to this, this boils down to the Big Ten.

It's Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin.

That's where the race is going to be won or lost.

And it's those lunch bucket issues.

It's eggs cost too much, gas costs too much.

You have illegals pouring over the border and you're scared to let your kid go downtown.

One thing I would add, the Kamala Harris reframe the map.

It's not just those three states.

It's also Arizona is in play.

Georgia in North Carolina, North Carolina, you know, we're told, yeah, when Donald Trump had to go there and he's having to place television ads there that shows that he knows that state is in play.

So Kamala Harris has more.

It's not just those big three states that only that was that was only path that Biden had was Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and in Michigan.

But now Kamala Harris has different ways to get to that magic number of to 70 to win.

Yeah.

Again, I think the hills too high in those three states for her, especially in Arizona.

I think the issue of immigration overwhelms that state.

And that's a big issue for Trump that goes beyond abortion, that goes beyond anything else that this is this is a major issue that most moves Arizona, both in terms straight up.

But one thing I would point out, though, Kamala Harris, we've not seen this in a long time, is going on offense on the immigration issue.

She's talking about borders.

Yes, she's a fence and immigration.

And I can tell you that.

And she is offensive.

And she's talking about how Donald Trump killed the immigration border bill that the Republicans came up with because he did he did not want the problem fixed before Election Day.

That is that is a killer issue that hurts Trump.

You know, we tried to fix it.

Trump destroyed it because he wants I'm sorry, he wants the immigration to be a mess down there because he wants it to help him.

That shows who loves America, who doesn't love America.

The reality is they ran away from her being the borders or they knew that wasn't working.

She stuck with that title, so they've tried to double down on it and say, Oh, no, we've tried to do the right thing.

We were just we were stopped by Trump and the minority of Republicans on the on the Senate side.

But it's a it's a massive issue for Trump.

It's a loser issue for her.

That's why they've tried all these things.

They can't figure out how to answer it.

So the narrative is just to just to ignore it now and to things that that were stressed time and time and time again during the past several days.

I did it in Chicago.

One was the abortion issue, and two was how many candidates of color were have been recruited and are running under the Democrat about how does that go on that Michael abortion issue.

That is that's one of the reasons why Democrats were able to hold on to the US Senate in 2022 and performed much better.

Was it because of the abortion issues?

You have women who are infuriated across this country that their rights have been taken away and now other rights are being taken away, but they see more rights being taken away.

They see the Republican Party that is trying to get rid of IVF.

They see the Republican Party that's trying to restrict contraception.

So they see where we are and they see where the Republican wants to want to go with their project 2025 and they are not happy.

That is going to be one of the things that is going to be the death knell for the Republicans are these women who are just angry as all imagined because of this, the Civil War, coast to coast, Bill, it seems to resonate.

It's why the convention is for the Democrats.

It's a get out the vote convention.

That's why you see this effort, because they've got to perform well in the in the Rust Belt with African-Americans and suburban women, suburban women, the issue of crime and safety, that's a big issue for Trump And the Republican side.

So they're trying to create the issue of abortion and a sense of urgency around that issue to appeal to to suburban women.

And they are, in effect, asking African American men, hey, we really need you guys to show up and turnout.

We need a turnout like they had in in oh eight and 12 when President Obama was on the ticket.

I'm not sure that that Kamala Harris can juice the the turnout level that much, but that remains to be seen.

Yeah, well, Mr. Clinton said in his appearance that he didn't know how many more.

It's just he didn't know how many more convincing.

Well, if he's ambulatory, he'll be there for years.

Or maybe if they have to, will, he'll be there.

And he still has it.

I mean, he's obviously he's 78 years old.

He's not the same as he was when he was 1992.

We all, you know, we all age, but he still he still is able to make the case.

And one one thing that stood out to me with that a lot about Donald Trump, you said don't count his lies, count his eyes, count the number of time.

It's all about Donald Trump, how he talks about him and his crowd size and how people are are opposed to him.

That that just sort of encapsulated sort of the the framing around Donald Trump.

He's just in it for himself, not for the country.

It did strike me that Bill Clinton is criticizing somebody selfishness and ego.

I mean, of all people on the planet Earth, the hypocrisy pool, he's in the deep end on that one, because I thought it was kind of comical that he had to make that sort of criticism.

I don't see any small egos that any.

Exactly.

You can't run for anybody and be not without ego or a little bit of a11 wag had it on Thursday morning, wrote that Mr. Clinton was still the party's best and as he put it, putting the head down where the goats can get to it as well.

Yeah, I mean, it's, you know, and to to to Bill Clinton's credit, his political career has been based on do the do the thing that's the most obvious.

Don't get too smart.

Go out here, move from A to B And I think that's what he was trying to say.

The reality is just the big issues that we've discussed don't break the way that for the Democrats, it's just they're bad issues for them.

And that's why the Trump campaign needs to concentrate.

Group one One last point, just to contrast, again, we had the we had a former president speak at our convention there.

The only we're living Republican president was not asked to speak at the Republican convention.

That's just another example of how how that party has become that cult of personality.

I got to end it there.

We're out of time.

But the rumor is you guys will be back.

So awful.

Anticipate.

Good deal.

Good to be.

Thanks for coming by.

As always.

We thank you for watching and see you next week.

Support for Arkansas Week provided by the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette.

But The Arkansas Times and Little Rock Public Radio.