Support for Arkansas Week provided by the Arkansas Democrat Gazette, The Arkansas Times and KUARFM 89.

Hello again, everyone.

Thanks very much for joining US Politics at the presidential level.

In this edition, former Governor ASA Hutchinson made the cut and was among the eight candidates on stage for his party's first debate of the cycle.

The front runner chose to be elsewhere.

Mr. Hutchinson joins us now from his headquarters in Bentonville.

Governor, thanks very much for being with us.

You were one of eight of you know up there on the stage.

Did you, in your opinion, move the needle and if so, in which direction, Sir?

Well, I move the needle by being on the debate stage.

There were four candidates that were excluded because they didn't meet the criteria.

And I want to thank Arkansas for being the number one state in my support even.

But we had over 30 states that had over 200 donors contributed my campaign to get me on the debate stage.

So that's was the key thing.

Now, being on the debate stage, we've met every one of our goals, which was my first introduction to a national audience to show my breadth of experience, my vision for America, my optimism for this country.

And we did that and also to showcase how I can make the case against Joe Biden.

I also wanted to make sure that it was clear that we needed to have an alternative Donald Trump.

We accomplished each of those objectives and that will pay off for the long term.

I think we've set the stage well to be able to get on the next debate, which will be at the Reagan Library next month.

Certainly, Sir, that you set yourself apart in terms of your views on Mr. Trump.

You were not your remarks.

They were not greeted with with a fuse of applause.

They're quite the opposite.

Is Mr. Trump the issue and A or and B, have you, are you failing the base on that issue by criticizing Mr. Trump, ruling him out?

Well, I mean it's it's it's a difficult position because people believe among our Republican base that Donald Trump has been unfairly prosecuted.

And so they have sympathy for him and they're balancing that with the understanding that he cannot win independent votes and cannot win a general election.

And so my mission is not to say Donald Trump is an evil person, but to say we've got to win in 2024 and the path to victory is not through Donald Trump.

And obviously, some of the prosecutions are unfair, in my judgment, might be politically motivated, overreaching.

Most of the New York case and the Georgia case I have concerns about.

But the same time, the reality is that he has not served our country well as the way he's handled the transfer of power.

And there's a consequence to that, and he's going to pay the price with the voters.

And that's why we need to have a different direction.

And yet, Sir, with each, it's been said before, with each indictment, each true bill, he seems to get stronger.

How do you counter that?

First of all, you got to tell the truth.

And I believe in this.

Everyone knows that I fought for the Republican Party and building the Republican Party in Arkansas for 40 years, and I don't like to see it going away.

That might forever change its course and diminish it as a competitive party, and we're on the verge of that.

And so I'm in there fighting.

Will I win that fight?

We'll see.

But it's a fight worth having.

And if you look at four more years, as I said in my closing argument, that we don't need four more years of Joe Biden and we don't need four more years of Donald Trump, there's a better path for the future of our country.

And I'm making that case as to how people respond to that.

I think they are.

And I think you'll see Iowa as the first place that they'll be a change in direction.

Is Iowa make or break for you, Sir?

You know, I I wouldn't put it in that category.

And of course, Iowa, you know it, their debate is whether you have to be in the top three or the top five to move on.

And so that's what you're evaluating.

But clearly the time that I've spent in Iowa, the response that I'm getting, the team that I'm building there is going to pay off.

And I think you'll see those numbers change.

But for there's two things got to happen.

I have to make my case, but obviously people have to realize that we need to go a different direction than Donald Trump.

The latter question is something that's going to take some time and some soul searching to see that happen.

The top three candidates are in almost all of us.

Well, in fact, all of the surveys that I have seen thus far indicate that it's either Mr. Trump or or two candidates who seem to to want to share that quarter of the Republican Party with him.

Can you crack through that?

How do, how do you crack through that?

Well, there's a lane.

There's a significant number of percentage in the party that believes we need to go a different direction than Donald Trump and somebody that is simply wanting to be like Donald Trump and you see a couple candidates like that and those.

So there's but there's a significant number that want to go a different direction and we're fighting for that percent of the vote.

And then as you over time, the expectation is you get momentum and that number increases.

See, there's no pretence about it.

This is a challenge.

Again, it's a fight worth having.

It's a debate that is for the soul of the party in our country.

And I'm just delighted that we've made this level of progress.

And I don't believe it's too late to turn it around.

You are not then you're saying, so you are not out of step with your party.

Well, not, not entirely the party, no.

Surely there's there's some that are not going to go with anybody other than Donald Trump.

Someone came to me and after the debate and said, God bless you, but I'll be with Donald Trump, even if he's serving as president from Alcatraz.

That is an exact quote.

So I'm probably not going to get that vote anytime soon.

But there's a vast number over a majority of voters in the Republican base that understand we need to go a different direction.

Governor Hutchinson, we thank you, Sir, very much for your time.

On to Iowa.

We'll be watching you there.

All right, great.

Thanks, Steve.

Thank you.

Come back soon.

Right back with more.

And we are back.

If you watch the Wednesday night debate, you probably decided eight was more than enough.

So how steep the path ahead for Mr. Hutchinson?

In fact, is there a path left and right now?

Red and blue?

Democratic consultant Michael Cook from the port side, Republican consultant Bill Vickery from Starboard and in the Solid.

Some would say Sensible center.

Heather Yates of UCA's political science faculty.

And thanks for everybody for coming aboard.

As for Mr. Hutchinson, he did not have a chance on the Fox News debate, an opportunity to speak until about 21 minutes into the program.

And he began, naturally enough, with his record as governor.

I'm a pro-life governor from a conservative state that have a conservative record in which I lowered taxes in Arkansas as governor.

I created a $2 billion surplus that I passed off for to my successor and I made sure that we shrunk the size of government.

It was a Republican debate.

So we will start with Mr. Vickery there.

What do you think?

Well overall, look 8 candidates debates are tough on television to begin with.

Eight candidates, some of them willing to Chris Christie would have taken his shirt off and streaked around the stage for more attention.

His way really tough.

And then it look the governor was trying to make sensible lucid sound points as a in delivering in a non yelling manner and it just it's just difficult to break out like that.

You noted the fact that we're most of the way through before he got a chance to speak.

That's what happens when you get that many people on the stage at once and we're really the big guy that looms over the whole thing is Trump not being there and the impact that has on it.

Yeah Michael, first of all in some ways it felt like a pointless exercise because Donald Trump was too much of A coward to even show up for the debate.

So it's sort of, I'd say coward.

I'd say if you have, you know, have the guts to take some shots from your opponent.

So that's my opinion.

But then second of all, when it comes to former governor ASA Hutchinson, Ace Hutchinson is a Reagan Republican in a party that hates Reaganism.

It's now Trump MAGA.

You know, Ronald Reagan was sunny optimism.

We're so lucky to be Americans and and you know, shining city on a hill, Trumpism is you're a bunch of suckers who are getting, you know, screwed over by people at the top of you and people below you and you're you're just getting taken for a ride by the deep state.

That's what the world of Republican primary voter is.

And and ASA is just sort of he's a thoughtful, pragmatic conservative, but he's just sort of out of step with a modern Republican Party.

So the the goal of the GOP debate this week for ASA Hutchinson really, I think need to be twofold.

He nailed his first goal, which was to introduce himself to a national audience.

He needed to put out there his record.

He was leading with a results driven resume.

He was trying to introduce his self to the audience as a record proven Republican of the traditional kind.

He's also speaking to donors when he was doing that.

The second part of the the goal that I I think ASA Hutchinson need to be a little more assertive on was that he needed to have a breakout moment in that debate.

It was a crowded debate stage, crowded primaries.

They tend to get very contentious.

You've got personalities that were on that stage that were case agents and the absence of the chaos agent that we're all talking about, which is Donald Trump.

Donald Trump didn't actually have to show up to the debate.

He's got a 20 to 40 point lead over some of these candidates and he is campaigning exactly the way he campaigned in 2016.

He did not campaign on the ground in Iowa in 2016 and he is showing the establishment that he didn't have to be there.

And I think the polls are showing that to aces credit to Governor Hutchinson's credit after the debate because he did come out the strongest and the most consistent in his critique of Donald Trump.

He was not punished in the polls the immediate.

Now there's only been a handful of polls after that debate.

He wasn't punished for that.

Michael said Bill said something earlier Ace I wanted to do this in the non yelling manner.

Yeah right.

Yeah I think he's got to be.

But the base seems to kind of that's what they created.

And so it it's really almost to study in contrast.

We talked about how you want to sound person, a thinker, someone an adult in the room to start.

But then what we really want is we want the WWF.

You know, they're on the stage and yelling and screaming and you can see that in the crowd.

I got a little degree, I mean, but you know, Heather made a very good point.

If you're ASA Hutchinson, this is a, this is a multiverse song.

And so you couldn't, with eight people on the stage, really have a massive breakout situation unless something just fell into your lap.

You got to play the long game here.

You got to start to speak to donors, to look and say, see, I am the adult here.

I can be that voice.

And then try to build your fundraising base up from that and prolong your stay at the at the dance.

Yeah, Another point here.

Mr. Hutchinson was the first of the candidates to mention my name, the former president Mr. Trump.

And that involved a question involving crime.

No one likes to see an America with smash and grab in our inner cities as president of the United States.

That will stop.

It starts at the top with the respect for our justice system that a former president who's under indictment has undermined by attacking judges, by attacking prosecutors, by attacking the system and saying he's aggrieved.

And so we have to have respect for our justice system and the rule of law.

And it starts at the top with the president of the United States.

How's that going to move?

The problem with his answer is I liked it as a Democrat that that's one of his biggest problems, you know, aces.

Another problem he has is that Democrats don't hate him.

Not that we're going to vote for ASA Hutchins if he was a nominee, but Republican primary voters want a nominee who is detested by Democrats because it's a way to own the libs.

And Democrats hate Donald Trump.

They hate Ron DeSantis.

They don't like Vivek Brahmaswami.

So that's what the modern Republican Party wants.

They want a candidate who that that can really get riled at the Democrats because we got to own the libs and ASA doesn't deliver that to him.

People.

That was a very thoughtful, pragmatic answer.

And that's the worst he can do in Republican primary.

Yeah, well have the Gates.

That seemed to be a calculating He was 24 hours away from a mugshot, and the mugshot itself seemed pretty calculated.

So ASA Hutchison in that answer was also presenting himself as a law and order candidate.

And the appetite of the audience that night was exactly what has been mentioned here already on the panel is that there was an appetite for drama, There was an appetite for contention.

And Ron DeSantis, Pence, Chris Christie and Ramaswamy was the one who who led that contention and fed off of the audience here with regard to the traditional dynamics of primaries.

ASA Hutchison is not appealing to that Republican base that was in the room.

But I I think ASA Hutchinson had different goals going into Wednesday than the other candidates.

Ramaswamy wanted to have that breakout moment and he was the chaos agent in lieu of Donald Trump.

But I I My observation of ASA Hutchison moving forward is it is not in his personality to be aggressive and by defining aggression.

Aggression is personal attacks, which was on that stage.

But I do think he needs to be more assertive in promoting what his record actually is in terms of policy.

Right now, the appetites of the American electorate doesn't seem to be toward policy.

It's toward the the personality of politics.

It's toward who can be nasty and who can grab headlines and who is entertaining to watch.

ASA Hutchison to some of these pockets of the electorate that wants the bloodbath, isn't going to play well because he's talking policy in his record and that play will play very well with with donors.

I keep circling around to donors because I think that's what he is needing to gain traction with to qualify for the next debate bill.

The big surge was on the part of of Mr. Vahmaswami.

But the the top three in there are really the ones that are tossing the red meat out and they're eating all of the polls they dominate.

Yeah.

Well I think if you take Trump and set him aside, it silo him off and then you talk about the rest of the field who were the sort of the losers coming out.

I think that's indicative.

I was it was disappointing.

I thought Tim Scott might have a stronger performance.

I think a lot of people want him to be successful.

You know Mike Pence's campaign hasn't started.

I mean that that I'm not even sure.

It will be interesting to see if the former vice president makes it to the starting gate in Iowa.

Desanto's expectations The legend of Ron De Santis has been a bigger campaigner than the actual Ron de Santis is inside the Republican Party.

So all these debates are sometimes truth machines like that.

You get to see the poor performance stands out more often than the the really good performance.

But for Governor Hutchinson, he's got to play the long game here.

He's got to be on the 4th, the 5th, the 6th, the debate.

He's got to be there.

He needs the print press then to come in and talk about him being the sounds sensible adult candidate.

Those kinds of that's how he stays alive and and develops a campaign contribution.

That's exactly Hutchinson's problem is, you know, he's a pragmatic, bland, kind of boring politician, which is what you really want for a presidential candidate.

But that's not what the party wants.

I'll be surprised if he's even in until Iowa, because at a certain point the money starts drying up very, very quickly.

So if he's even campaigning by the time Iowa's around, I'll be surprised, because that's not what the party doesn't want an adult in the room.

The the donors are not.

It's no longer big donors.

It's the small donors that want that red meat that are the ones that fund these presidential campaigns and aces.

Not delivering to them for another piece from the debate a bit later in the in the in the debate.

But in the same vein, the candidates were asked to raise their hands if they would support a Trump nomination in the event that the former president became a or becomes a convicted felon.

You did not raise your hand.

I did not raise my hand because there's an important issue we as a party have to face.

And over a year ago, I said that Donald Trump was morally disqualified from being president again.

As a result of what happened on January 6th, more people are understanding the importance of that, including conservative legal scholars who says he may be disqualified under the 14th Amendment from being president again as a result of the insurrection.

This is something that could disqualify him under our rules and under the Constitution.

It didn't play well with that audience, Heather.

And does he have a better chance with the base, the broader base, the the, the general election base He might have a better chance with.

But that's the the problem he's got.

He's got to get through the primary and he's been very consistent in his critique of Donald Trump.

And Wednesday night was possibly the strongest critique.

He came out and drawing those boos from the crowd actually might have played into ASA Hutchinson's, you know, game of fundraising because he is trying to appeal to like the Lincoln Project Republicans and the Lincoln Project Republicans have been saying this.

So he but he's got to get through this primary and I I'm concerned that if he's not more assertive that he's going to turn into an an anachronism, something that's outdated for the larger party demographic.

I do think it's important to note who he's running against, and he's not running.

I mean, in practical reality, not running against Donald Trump, he's running against Haley Scott, others, you kind of that that second tier of candidate there.

All he's got to do is finish better than them and as the field begins to whittle down, be the one stuck that you're you're sticking around and continue to make that kind of argument to Heather's point is right.

I mean, yes, he needs to be more assertive, clearly.

But the reality is as long as he's outperforming the other group or engaged better than the other group, that's his real advantage in terms of getting beyond Iowa, New Hampshire and into South Carolina.

And Billy, you're saying that you do see a pathway, He does have a path for him of the old Main Street Republican.

I think there is a pathway for him to maintain his presence in the race for a long period of time, running a guerrilla style campaign, living off sort of that as and we've seen that happen.

That's the nature of especially Republican primaries.

They tend to kind of one or two candidates stick around and and we saw it in John Kasich's in 2016.

So you know you fill that role you become a real outsized figure in the in the primary he's there's not really a path for a such and because one like Bill was referring to there's too many other people sort of competing for that same lane.

So they're all chopping up the vote leaving Trump with the the plurality which is exactly how he won in 2016.

And for ASA again I'll be surprised if he's in in Iowa.

But if he doesn't win in Iowa or New Hampshire, I mean it's over.

Yes, he could still keep running like Kasich, but Kasich was never the nominee.

You've got to you've got to rack up some wins to be the to be the nominee.

Does it suggest anything that the gentlewoman from South Carolina got a bit of a nudge, at least in the public she she did a very good job in that in that debate she went after Democrats, which is what Republicans have to do in a Republican primary debate.

But she after went after some Republicans for raising the debt for many, many years.

She also raised her hand.

End of that question, right.

Because you can't.

You cannot.

That's the other problem with ASA.

You have to fall into the big lie that the Department of Justice and prosecutors are weaponizing this and that the election, you have to fall into the lie that the election was stolen.

And ASA refuses to fall into that line.

Again, that that hurts him with a Republican base by being a reasonable, pragmatic conservative.

So he's just sort of, you know he's he's an Arkansan, but he's he's stuck in a very, very narrow path that I don't see him getting anywhere at all.

Back to the center, Heather, where what what are we looking for now?

What what are we going to say?

Well, I mean and I think the the for Mr. Hutchinson.

Well, right.

And anything for this.

The the reality of the primary is that every single primary contender right now is running against Donald Trump, whether they like it or not, because he is the one leading in the polls.

ASA Hutchison, I I've said this again, he his personality type is not the type to be aggressive or personal, but he is going to have to be assertive and put his record out there.

But he's also going to have to sharpen his criticism and not be afraid to criticize his other contenders because that's you're trying for a nomination.

And for that he has to show to the base that he can get into the ring and be a little more assertive, even if that's out side of his comfort zone.

So as a candidate, he's going to have to step outside of that comfort zone and and assert a little more.

Yeah, we're still talking about the red meat element of the base there.

I mean, can he get around the fact that he does not like Donald Trump?

It's going to get down to the demographic divide, how the demographics cut in Iowa and all the the primaries, the primaries and the caucuses.

Because I do think that if we drill down on the data, we're going to actually see a generational difference.

I think that ASA Hutchinson is going to appeal to mid to older generation Republicans who remember Reagan conservatism and is still trying to wrestle that back with the younger crowd.

Ramaswami is the biggest threat because that's the red meat.

It's the raucous politics, it's the gladiator style bloodbath that seems to be capturing the attention of the younger crowd.

So I think it's how the demographics cut in the the primaries.

Back to Bill one more time.

But yet it is Mr. De Santis who has the, the track record that he has done a poor job of translating his success in Florida to success as a candidate.

And I think he's running against expectations, I mean, so, but his underperforming on expectations is really, I think is a drag for them.

And he's got to, I mean, the next couple of debates, he's got to find some issue, a way to break out.

Dan.

Gotta end it there, Michael.

We'll come back to you next time when you guys come back.

All right.

That's it for us this week.

As always.

Thank you for watching.

See you next week Support for Arkansas Week provided by the Arkansas Democrat Gazette, The Arkansas Times, and KUARFM 89.