Support for Arkansas Week provided by the Arkansas Democrat Gazette, The Arkansas Times and KUARFM, 89.

Hello again everyone and thanks very much for being with us.

We are just short weeks away now from debate week here on Arkansas PBS with contestants for 9 statewide or district offices taking questions, an assessment of where those campaigns stand in just a moment from two of our go to analysts.

But first, an arrest last Sunday by three officers in Crawford County and a bystanders video that went viral within hours.

By Monday, all three officers had been suspended with pay pending investigations by the state and the US Department of Justice.

Using public records, several news organizations quickly documented that two of the officers had been accused previously of misconduct involving force.

Civil litigation stemming from Sunday's episode seems all but assured.

For now, though, questions.

And, as an aside, isolated incident or a pattern to seldom documented employment and training standards for sworn officers, adequate or insufficient?

Joining us now Fred Witherspoon, deputy director of the Arkansas Law Enforcement Training Academy.

Mr Witherspoon, thanks very much for being with us under the circumstances.

There's a limit on now to what you can discuss with pending state and federal investigations into the Crawford County episode, but it does raise a question.

Are these episodes such episodes as we're documented in in the Crawford County and Mulberry?

Are these isolated incidents or are they under reported underdocumented more of them?

And we know.

Well, Steve, I'm going to err on the side of caution and saying that these are isolated incidents because Arkansas law enforcement personnel are some of the best trained in the country and with any profession, there's always going to be an incident or opportunity for an unfortunate situation to arrive.

So that's going to be our position on that.

Was of employment standards.

Well, let's take both employment and training.

It was pointed out to me a couple of days ago that in many.

Many other countries anyway, not, and it's not restricted to Arkansas or or the United States, but many other countries the the employment and training standards are substantially higher, the employment requirements are higher, training standards are higher than they are in the United States and in Arkansas.

You want to comment on that?

Well, the standards that we have adopted was approved by the law Enforcement Standing Commission on training and and I feel that the training that we offered Arkansas law enforcement personnel again is.

The best that we have and because our.

Training personnel.

They are constantly and.

Regularly attending updated training seminars in service training.

So if they are way ahead of us, it couldn't be by much.

In terms of employment standards though, are they high enough in Arkansas?

Do we require enough of our entry level officers?

I think that the current standards that we have adopted on the classroom 1005.

Clearly says excuse me, a 1005 clearly indicates that the adopted training is sufficient to meet the requirements for an officer to be an officer.

Law enforcement Officer, State of Arkansas.

Well, in in Arkansas it's a it's weeks or months of training in some.

In some Western nations it's it's years.

That would seem to be a substantial number that would seem to be a substantially higher standard than his volunteer.

Is that practical in the United States?

In Arkansas?

I would have to say stay 13 weeks is sufficient in that you realize that the citizens of Arkansas paying these salaries of these officers while they are away attending training.

And by the same token, those 13 weeks of training are very intensive and inclusive of of legislative mandates, federal laws and regulations that have been handed down to us.

So we are in compliance with those recommendations and mandates.

Related though they may be, incidents such as this do attack the credibility of of law enforcement as a whole, and it it it raises a or underscores a persistent problem in the criminal justice community.

And that's at some segments of the population, particularly communities of color.

Can't trust their own police.

Well, it's unfortunate that perception does exist, but I I want to reassure all citizens of Arkansas law enforcement can be trusted.

And that we have professionals out there serving them every single day.

They suit up to do the job and they're doing it to the best of their ability and skill set.

And our training end of the table is that we are doing everything possible to make sure when they leave this Academy, these academies, that they are prepared to do the job to those expected level.

Of the Arkansas Law Enforcement Training Academy.

Thanks very much for being with us.

Thank you.

Yes, and we'll be back in a moment with Arkansas politics.

We are back and the November elections are fast approaching.

So is debate week here on Arkansas PBS.

The nominees in the major state and district contests will be questioned beginning October 17th.

We'll run through them really quickly.

Beginning on Monday, October the 17th.

There will be meetings of the the nominees in the 4th Congressional District and in the third Congressional District.

Following day.

On Tuesday, the candidates for Lieutenant governor.

Some familiar faces along the way here that the Lieutenant governor's debate also.

Secretary of State following day on Wednesday the 19th.

Attorney general.

Come Thursday, October 20th in the first Congressional District and in the second Congressional District, all the nominees there and on Friday, the marquee races, the campaign for governor and.

For the United States Senate.

So we know that you'll want to join us that week.

Elsewhere in the nation, the Democrats and their party's leader have had some successes of light, but too late to make any difference.

And will those victories in Congress and in congressional elections make any difference here?

Joining us now from the left, Democratic consultant Michael Cook.

And from the right, the GOP's Richard Bearden gentlemen, thanks for always for coming in.

Why don't we start there?

And and a brief explainer?

These congressional elections elsewhere in the country have real significance for Arkansas because the margins of the leadership majorities in the House and Senate are so narrow, it can make the difference between ranking Member and Mr. Chairman or Madam Chair.

Richard, you see much impact here.

This, this.

Well, I think suddenly looking brighter, a little bit brighter.

They they are.

Look the the the President and the Democrats have had a good ten day, two week period.

Someone I saw on one of the political talk shows suggested the president should stay in the basement a little bit more because you know, you had the the Democrat senator from Arizona and the Democrat senator make Joe Macon from West Virginia come out and negotiate a little bit more.

But it was a good week and I'll concede good week for the Democrats.

Good week for the president.

The the the question is we're about to just now get into where people are thinking about politics.

So how does the momentum rise and wane over the coming few months nationally?

How does that affect things?

I know that Democrats also want a special election in New York, but I've seen a lot of pundits saying very small turnout, very focused turnout, but probably flips back to the Republic.

Was a Republican held seat won by the Democrats swings back.

So I think there'll be some key races we can talk about around the country for the Senate.

The house looks like it could well flip Republican.

The Senate will be very close depending on a couple of key races.

Yeah, Michael, we're heading into a unique environment that I've never really seen before.

Typically in midterms, the party in power who has the White House, they tend to just kind of lose seats and have a lot of headwinds.

There are lining up jobs exactly, exactly.

This time around we've it's still obviously a difficult environment for Democrats.

Can't be discounted, but they they do have some wind in their sails.

It's a combination of things that President Joe Biden has accomplished with the Inflation Reduction Act and and other goods, the Chips Act that makes a difference in people's lives and that other factors that were out of his control.

The Dobbs decision that basically ended abortion rights for 10s of millions of women across the country, which has, you know, 1992 was the year of the woman.

We talked about that now 30 years later.

I think it's people are calling it the year of the ticked off woman.

We're seeing the voter surges in registration and Women Voters across the country, nationally.

I think the fact that there is this momentum on democratic sides, democratic side is going to make a big difference.

In the Senate races.

Republicans have just horrible candidates in Georgia, Arizona and Pennsylvania.

Here in Arkansas though the reality even though there is this environment that's helpful for Democrats nationally, it's not going to make any big difference.

On the statewide races or the congressional races, but I will say on some close legislative seats, it could help out on the margins, help some Democrats either retain or maybe pick up a seat or two here and there.

Yeah, Richard, that's not so fast.

My friend is.

Latency.

The fact just out in in Politico today 1,000,000 voters switched to the Republican Party in warning for DM, says The Associated Press.

And and what was interesting is 1,000,000 new voters, 42 states was the was the breadth of where we're all in the suburbs and if you remember from the last election President Trump lost the suburbs, he lost that suburb woman.

So I do think the Dobbs decision is going to be important.

Other another factoid, though.

Since the Dobbs decision, Women Voters nationwide has jumped up, I think between 11 and 17% so.

So that voter registration rates and the terms of turnouts among Women Voters in these special elections of the primary has been through the roof.

So that's going to be.

Difficult dynamic for Democrats, but it's not going to be the typical election, midterm election.

I don't completely agree.

And I think some of the dynamics are going to be driven by the Dobbs decision.

Some are going to be driven by inflation.

These same moms are at the gas pumps, they're at the grocery stores paying higher prices for everyday food staples.

And I think that also will drive a lot of voter turn out and how they vote.

Lunch bucket issues, always 100.

It's the economy, stupid.

Well, back back to Dobbs and and to roll for just a second, as Michael pointed out, that has it nationwide.

It has spurred female voter registration and perhaps political activism to levels not seen certainly in recent years.

Given the distance of that that that that mindset has to travel in Arkansas, will that make any significant difference here in Arkansas?

Not really.

I mean it's it's such a red state, the Republican can't nominees for very statewide offices.

Their leaves I'm sure are, are, are very, very wide to to put it mildly.

I do think.

But like I said, I think on the local level, on some of these closer legislative seats, I think it will make a difference, you know this.

This Dobbs decision was a political bomb that I don't think we've ever seen in my lifetime, at least in terms of how it just remixed everything has made so many people mad and various degrees that nationwide and make a difference here in Arkansas.

I don't, I don't see it too much, Richard.

The last Gallup I saw a couple of days ago indicated that the gains that Mr Biden is doing.

As we've all agreed, Mr Biden has had a pretty good two weeks here.

He's at a level, I think of approval and anybody in the latest gallop that I saw that was highest he's been since since he's basically since he took office.

And his gains have been among swing voters.

Yeah, it's suburban voter, ex urban voter.

Again, the the President I can see, has had a good 10 days prior to that.

He's had a horrible year.

And so, you know, the question is as you go through the grind, when people are starting to pay attention, does that hold or not hold?

I would agree with Michael.

I think there are some pocket areas where Democrats could do very well Plaski County, potentially one of those areas.

But there's not that many competitive seats in the delta or Pine Bluff, Jefferson County or Eureka Springs, another or our fable.

There's maybe a House seat or two up there.

So, I mean, you know, here I think the Democrats are going to be faced with a Republican ticket from Senate all the way down to land Commissioner that are all well funded.

And the burden, as you know, anytime you're a challenger is to get your name out there.

And I I think that's just going to be the dollars are not flowing to the candidates.

In enough amounts for them to get out and amount of credible campaign to the to the widespread electorate.

Well, and it would appear too from the advertising that yours truly has seen thus far, the burden is Biden.

We've got one GOP nominee who's whose motto apparently is fighting the Biden agenda.

I mean that, but what's interesting, we're seeing this nationwide.

You know, I can't disagree with King Richard said.

In terms of the Democrats have serious problems in Arkansas, it's gonna be that way for some time.

But what we're seeing in in national polls is sort of a decoupling of the president's approval ratings versus some of these candidates who are running that they're running ahead of the president's approval ratings.

I mean, we're, you know, we're probably going to take back the seat in Pennsylvania, probably hold on to the seat in Arizona, all because because of the quality of the candidates.

And the environment, that has happened because we've not even talked about the other problem Republicans face, you know, the Dobbs decision.

But Trump is now back in the news.

I mean, this is the worst thing for Republicans because now they they have to embrace them and people just down voters, swing voters detest Trump and Republicans.

If they don't embrace them, then they lose.

So they're caught in this trap or they have to defend the fact that he's got, you know, the nuclear code codes and and moral law or whatever whatever they are.

It it caught, they're caught in that that vice of the of the Trump factor and the more Trump is in the news, which I think we're gonna see more and more over the next couple of months, that's the worst thing that can be happened.

Well, yeah, I would note a couple of those elsewhere.

Those Democratic nominees are running against.

They're running in spite of Biden and they're making it clear that they're running in spite of Biden right now.

Michael mentioned a couple of key States and I was just looking at again a couple of the national publications, but the Senate, which I think literally could flip either way.

Arizona, Georgia.

New Hampshire.

Nevada, Pennsylvania, 5 states.

Wisconsin, another Republican held seat.

Pennsylvania Republican held seat.

So you're you're literally talking about again some already very contested seats.

Wisconsin, a true swing state.

Georgia now a purplish true swing state that could determine the United States Senate.

There's a very close race out in Nevada.

Be a lot of money poured in out there and these other seats so the Senate very very close again I think a lot of this is going to come down to what are those lunch bucket type issues that voters face if gas which has come down but if it still remains high if bread remains high.

The question is is the Dobbs decision or milk and bread and school supplies for kids which of those issues are going to balance out and the voters mind when they go on the.

Voting Booth and I would argue it is the economy, stupid, to to coin an old phrase from the Clinton campaign and I think that's going to be the determining factor.

I think it's it's it's obviously a lunch bucket.

Issues are always important to me wrong.

But the kitchen table issues healthcare rights that have taken away from women.

That's a kitchen table issue that families have serious heart to heart talks about of what they do with the healthcare.

That's a part of the discussion now.

And on top of that you have as I said, Trump and not even mentioned that January 6th committee meetings.

That been happening over the summer with all these just horrific things we've learned about the the slow moving coup that the Republicans and Trump tried to implement on different levels.

So yes, you do have inflation.

It's it's a serious concern.

Gas prices have been dropping literally every day for for months now.

So unemployment is still at historic lows.

It's still a tough environment, but the fact that we're talking about that the Democrats might be able to hold on to the Senate and hold their losses low in the House.

That is very good news for the party in power in the White House in a midterm election where historically you just get creamed and waxed in the midterms.

It's good news on August 26th.

Let's let's see where we are on October the 5th October.

Well in fact most of and of course we're looking at just the GOP side.

But Michael, I haven't seen the survey yet or reliable poll yet that shows any Mr DeSantis of Florida comes close sometimes, but you put the two of them on the ballot and it's and it's it's Trump every time if he files.

He wins the primary.

Yeah.

So it would seem that the rank and file are not as disabused of Mr Trump as perhaps the Democrats would would wish.

Oh no, the the the rank and file Republicans.

They love Donald Trump.

That's who they want as their nominee.

His approval ratings are 8590%.

That's the worst thing for Republicans in terms of the general election, because now all their elected officials have to embrace Trump.

They can't say anything negative about him and Trump.

Is the is the death knell for swing voters, for Republicans, that just kills them.

The fact that we're even talking about a president who left office two years ago, we've we've never seen that before.

With Bush left, he disappeared.

Obama, Clinton kind of hung around a little bit, but nothing like the fact that this is dominating the news.

The fact that we're talking about that's where Republicans are having problems is that we're not talking about inflation.

We're talking about documents in the basement at Mar-a-lago.

That's what's dominating the news coverage and that's hurting, you know, Republican.

This is dominating the coverage, but Richard isn't resonating across the broad electorate.

You know, I I don't know.

I mean, I actually think the president's former president got a a an uptick in the polls, approval rating, whatever.

When people saw the FBI are rating marlago don't know all the details.

I think Donald Trump's got a lot of hurdles to jump through before he determines whether he's going to run the prayer for again for the presidency.

And as you mentioned DeSantis, we have our own Governor, ASA Hutchinson, who's putting his toe out there.

There will be others.

Tim Scott, there will be other candidates that come to the forefront to determine about whether they do or don't run for the presidency.

So I think we're a long way off of that.

Away from that, I think to some degree these midterms will determine where our party goes as Republicans and how much of a burden or has he leveled the ship a little bit?

President Biden is for the Democrats in Arkansas.

It will not matter.

We won't.

We will not see President Biden even fly over the state of Arkansas because I don't think the Democrats want.

Yeah, we're giving it an Arkansas flavor again.

It is sort of remarkable, though, because you see in Washington, Mr Trump and Mr Leader McConnell plainly despise each other.

And now Mr McConnell has openly been.

Fair to say, contemptuous of some of his own parties, senatorial nominees in some of the states that Michael Michael mentioned.

But here in Arkansas you've used the phrase right the ship.

Mr Hutchinson has spent the last, really the last two years trying to, in his own way, write the ship, trying to steer, steer it back to toward a more centrist course, which he says he's trying to do now.

Yeah.

And, you know, this may be, I think, history.

This will be the first time a Republican governor will hand off to another Republican governor.

I don't, I don't know that that's ever happened.

I was trying to think through if it is so you know it, it will be.

And of course, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, the daughter of former governor Mike Huckabee, the last Republican governor, well, that makes it a little rich.

I mean, yeah, that's breaking from.

There's a lot of there.

And look, I, I think there are folks say, you know, gosh.

There is young Sarah's grown up in politics.

She was on the frontline of at the Trump White House, which was not an easy job to have every day to stand up and defend some of the president's policies.

But Sarah has surrounded herself with good folks.

I think should she win the election, the polls all appoint to she's in a great shape.

There's going to be a very easy transition from one Republican governor to the other and I think they'll be able to hit the ground running with a super majority Republican legislature to continue that legacy and build her own new legacy.

One thing I would add to this in terms of how Arkansas.

Politics changes is that Sarah Sanders is the nominee for governor and more than likely wins the governorship because simply because Donald Trump said I want her to be the nominee.

That's all it took.

You had a sitting attorney general and a sitting Lieutenant governor, former congressman who spent who put in the time paying their dues and the former president said Nope, sorry, Sarah Sanders gets to be the nominee and they had to drop out and that we've never seen that kind of, just sort of.

I don't know what you call it in terms of you can't think, Nope, sorry, Sarah Sanders gets to be the nominee.

Well, the great reshuffling actually began before that.

There was a gentleman named Mr Cotton who'd been away from the state for like 20 years.

He parachutes back into the 4th Congressional District, says I'm running with an R beside my name.

And Wham, he goes, yeah, but it's a different dynamic.

And he he fought for the race and, you know, got himself elected.

I'm saying the fact that the Attorney general and the Lieutenant governor had to chicken out because that that's how, how how much Donald Trump, Donald Trump has sway over the Republican rank and file that if he says.

And that's the problem Republicans faced nationally horrible nominees on the Republican side in Pennsylvania, in Georgia and I believe and Ohio because Donald Trump, these are Donald Trump nominees and now they face losings because like Doctor Oz in Pennsylvania he is a horrible candidate.

You know he knows what a crew detail is and how to how to put that together and and and John Fetterman has been hammering him out.

He's fact he's actually he lives in New Jersey.

But the the Republicans problem is Trump said these are my nominees.

And now they may not be able to retake the Senate because of Donald Trump.

Crudite or veggie tray?

What, rich?

You know, I would go probably a veggie tray guy myself, but more of a BBQ tray.

Yeah, yeah, ribs or that's or chicken, anyway.

Is there a path forward?

Do you see an I ask you this periodic ask all of our democratic running do you see a path forward in the near term for the Democratic Party?

The, the the path is long and rocky as was.

What I say is that it's going to take many years.

We're not going to win the, you know, governorships and Senate races right away.

But the things we have going for us is the growth and massive changes in Northwest Arkansas and the look, we're not going to win a lot of seats up there this time around.

I'm not saying that but I'm saying we're going to slowly.

You look over the past 10 years, Democrats used to get like 36%, then they get 38, then they get 40, now they're at 42, they're at 44.

So you slowly see this very again it's it's going to be some cycles before we get there, but that's that's where I think the pathway to taking back some things go through is Northwest Arkansas policy or demographics, Richard.

You know a little of both.

I agree with Michael and and we were in politics at at the state parties at the same time and it's if the roles were reversed the Republicans had 26 in the House and you know the the process policy drove a lot of rural voters away from the Democrats into the Republican column.

You actually saw you I think we had three or four Democrat electorate Democratic elected officials who switched parties and have been reelected as Republicans.

All in rural Arkansas and so you know it.

It is a slow process.

I've been there.

It's not fun.

It's not fun to have to go out and try to raise money when you can't get people excited about anybody on your ticket to a large degree.

And I saw this the other day, I think, Sarah, on the last report it was like a 13 to one cash on hand advantage heading in, you know, 100 and whatever you are out 2000 and 30 days out.

That's impossible to try to make up, but I think it's going to be policy and demographics Republicans in northwest Arkansas.

Have had to sort of morph to some issues that are important to folks up there as new people have moved in from California and Washington State and Oregon.

But those core values are still there for the Republican Party.

Yeah, got into there because we're out of time, gents.

Come back soon.

I know you will.

And that's it for us for this week.

Thanks for joining us as always.

See you next.

Support for Arkansas Week provided by the Arkansas Democrat Gazette, The Arkansas Times, and K UAR FM, 89.