Support for Arkansas Week provided by the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette.

The Arkansas Times and Little Rock Public Radio.

Hello and welcome to Arkansas Week.

I'm Chris Cain.

State and local governments are facing increased risks from ever more sophisticated cyber attacks.

Later in the program, we're going to discuss how one university is preparing students to combat such attacks.

But first, US consumer confidence took a sharp dive this February, marking the largest monthly drop in more than four years.

Inflation concerns persist, while fears of an impending trade war under President Trump are growing.

Meanwhile, retail giant Wal-Mart reported revenue gains but also issued a more cautious outlook for 2025, citing potential tariffs on imported goods.

To discuss this, we're joined by Dr. Jeremy Hospital, director of UCLA's Arkansas Center for Research and Economics, otherwise known as ACRE, and also Doctor Dr. Michael Pascoe, chief economic forecaster, state economic forecaster at U.

A Little Rock, Arkansas Economic Development Institute.

Welcome to you both.

Thank you so much for being here.

Thank you.

We could go on for an hour of this, and fortunately we only have a few minutes, but certainly there's so much to get to.

Dr. Robert Doll, let's start with you just for a moment.

I mentioned the consumer confidence index and when it falls by seven points, that kind of total.

Is that alarming?

And also, what is the contribution or the contributing factor that would make it go down such?

Yeah, there are always lots of things that are affecting how consumers are thinking.

I think part of what we're seeing is still a reshuffling after the election of Democrats are less confident and Republicans are more confident, which is a natural change.

So we're seeing some reshuffling.

But I think with a lot of the information now consumers are getting about what might happen with tariffs, as well as some uncertainty about other economic factors, I think that is a big drop and that's showing up in other indexes, too, such as the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment index.

So we're seeing that across the board.

And along with that, consumers are now expecting higher inflation.

So that's another thing those indexes may measure is how much inflation are they expecting.

And that's now at some of the highest levels that those indexes have reported ever.

So consumers didn't quite predict the inflation we saw a couple of years ago, but now they seem to be worried about it, which is part of why their confidence is lower.

And Dr. Packer, recent reports indicate those concerns over inflation and potential trade tariffs combining those two.

So whenever it comes to these factors and consumer sentiment, what are you seeing right now as being maybe some of the the repercussions of that, so to speak, or what are what are some of the things that could unfold because of these factors?

Well, I think that the one thing in common that all your headlines share is a sense of uncertainty about where the economy's going.

It's been out now almost exactly five years since the big COVID contraction.

And we've been through a long story arc since then.

We seemed to be kind of coming onto a glide path with inflation coming down, the Fed lowering interest rates.

But now we have all this uncertainty about the administration tariffs, layoffs and the government employees.

And those are all factors that make business people and consumers uneasy and uncertain about the future.

And that was, I think, reflected in Walmart's statement of their their earnings and revenues weren't seriously bad or anything, but just it was that was up.

It was yeah, exactly.

It was the outlook of the concern about the future that that caused some discontinuities in the price at least.

And is that tariff related?

Do you believe the forecast is more generally related to tariffs?

I think in Walmart's case, that's going to be factor for sure, but I think that's also a factor within with the consumer confidence and other measures of of forward looking thoughts about the economy.

You talk about the long term looking forecasting around the year, but Dr. Herbert, the Conference Board's report states that Americans short term expectations so for income, business and job market drove dropping below recessionary warning levels.

So what risks does that pose for any kind of economic growth here in the short term as opposed to looking down the road towards the end of the year?

Yeah, I think that, you know, we'll have another GDP report coming out in another month and the initial reports and that also it's going to be lower than the past few quarters.

So I think that we're starting to see that in the data and consumers are starting to worry about it, too.

I think that, you know, one reading of below this recessionary level is not super worrying.

We had one reading like that last year.

It's a little bit volatile of an index, but I think it is something that we start to look at.

See is this a pattern or consumer is continually this pessimistic.

And I think that, you know, with the tariffs, as we've talked about, that's just one issue where there is so much uncertainty, you know, depending on when your viewers watch this, we don't know if next Monday the tariffs on Mexico and Canada are going to go into place.

Maybe we'll know by the weekend.

And now there's a new announcement of potential tariffs on the EU, but we don't know what's a deadline on that.

So I think it's just a lot of these things are happening week to week and that's just maybe making these indexes kind of jump around a lot.

Dr. Paco Wal-Mart's a huge player in in terms of economic forecasting.

And for them to come out with a statement like that, is there any type of trickle down effect in terms of sentiment for economic growth, for the year, among other major industries and other corporations?

Well, I think there's a general expectation that we'll have slow but steady growth this year.

As I said, we are kind of embarking on what I would consider to be a glide path with lower interest rates, lower inflation.

But it really just depends on what kind of impact any sort of tariff actions and reactions will will take place.

And that's where it is.

It's just kind of a wait and see.

Dr. Patel said next Monday we may still not know what the status of tariffs with Canada and Mexico are, but, you know, it's just like a very uncertain environment.

Well, let's talk about some of Arkansas sectors that could be impacted by these tariffs, not just the major corporations, especially focusing on the agricultural sector of Arkansas, largest in the state.

These tariffs, what are you seeing in terms of impact?

I'll start with you, Dr. Robert Doll.

How could these impact farmers in the state in in maybe here at home or abroad?

I think one of the main things that the agricultural industry is worried about is what's going to be retaliation going to be.

I think that, you know, when we're talking about the U.S. putting tariffs in place now, that's going to affect foreign producers and domestic consumers.

But for the ag sector and other sectors here, such as sectors that might use inputs like steel and other other metals that might have tariffs, they're worried about what might be the reaction.

Right.

So in the last round of of the tariffs under the first Trump administration, China responded to Trump's tariffs by having very strategic tariffs on American industries.

Soybeans were an example that that affected us here in Arkansas.

So we might be worried about that part of it.

These tariffs don't worry the ag sector that much.

I think they're be worried about what's the reaction to it?

Dr. Packer.

No, I think that's right.

It's really the retaliation that is the danger for Arkansas, the agricultural sector.

But, you know, they've got enough problems as it is.

Crop prices are down.

Commodity prices are much lower than they were a couple of years ago.

And yet the import prices that the farmers face are still really high after that, after the inflationary round.

Add to that the uncertainty about the fact that the farm bill is now a couple of years late, and that's increasingly becoming a major concern among the agribusiness sector as well.

So that's that's one of the areas to keep an eye on the Arkansas economy to see how agriculture fares this year, particularly.

RICE Right.

RICE And soybeans are the true real major commodities that are important for Arkansas.

Yes.

And in terms of Arkansas being the largest domestic export, I will add that from what I hear, animal agriculture is doing fine with chickens, perhaps, but it's really a row crops that are facing this crunch with low commodity prices and high input costs.

And this for both of you, kind of a broad question here, but I'll start with you, Dr. Robert.

All key economic indicators, consumers in particular, and businesses, what are they monitoring in the coming months to try and figure out what direction this is going to go?

You know, we know we've always known, but we certainly learned in the last election that consumers really are concerned about price inflation.

So I think that as price inflation has moderated, as as we mentioned, you know, that has given them maybe some confidence.

But now when they see key items like eggs and a little bit gas prices starting to go back up, I think that worries consumers.

That is inflation taking off again.

So I think that's both to the confidence as well as what the consumers monitor, you know, the things they spend on on a weekly basis or the kind of things that they're going to watch.

Businesses are watching their cost to.

And I think that that's another concern about not only tariffs, but other global phenomenon that might be affecting the cost of a lot of business inputs, I think are that so that those prices, I think, are what both consumers and producers are most worried about, in addition to other things about credit markets.

Dr. Packer Yeah, I mean, I guess I would look at the labor market as the pulse of the local economy, and in that sense, Arkansas is pretty well poised to deal with whatever comes next.

I mean, we have unemployment below 4%.

We have record high non-farm payroll employment, and even the level of unfilled job openings remains elevated here in Arkansas.

So there's there's a lot of buffer room there in in earnings and output.

I mean, we're still seeing positive gains in consumer and household income.

So, you know, I think there's what we talk about all this uncertainty and there could be some difficult economic times ahead.

Arkansas is poised to work really well.

I think.

Well, and the tariff talk is something that was going on well before even the election, the new administration.

So what were some of the strategic ways that businesses, especially maybe some of the larger corporations we mentioned Wal-Mart earlier, What are some of the strategic ways Dr. Hope and all that they may be prepared for this or have changed the way they their outlook was going to be because of the expectation of these tariffs to take place, even if they don't maybe know when.

As you mentioned, it could be Monday, it could be next week, next month, We don't know.

But at least what are those strategic ways they've worked to try and make it to where it's mitigated on their business and not as highly impactful?

Yeah, I mean, there are all kinds of strategies they might take and some they're going to maybe take, even if they think the tariffs might come into place, which perhaps that's one of the goals of the uncertainty, is to get them to take the action anyway.

But I think in some cases maybe trying to be less dependent on global supply chains, maybe trying to buy more things locally, but there's always a limit to that.

Right.

And that there's there's only so much domestic supply of a lot of these inputs to buy.

I think that, you know, trying to figure out how to deal with any losses that result from that in new product markets.

But I think really, you know, we get this from Wal-Mart's guidance that they're really they're kind of waiting and seeing like everyone else.

And in some cases, it's just hard to address any of these possible uncertainties if consumer confidence continues on the path that it's on right now declining.

What specific policy measures could maybe the federal government or state governments take to try and stabilize consumer sentiment moving forward, to not make them as cautious and uneasy about economic activity?

Dr. Bakker, I'll start with you.

Oh, well, you know, building consumer confidence is kind of a tricky, tricky game.

I guess any sort of action, say, for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates might produce more confidence in the outlook going forward.

But that was facing the obstacle of the increased costs that are likely to happen because of tariffs.

So as tariffs puts consumer prices up, that tends to look like inflation, which could make the Fed more hesitant to cut interest rates.

And so it really kind of puts them in a bind as well.

So, you know, I guess really the only way to resolve uncertainty is to get to the other side of what's what's the concern.

That is, let's get a view of just exactly how far this tariff managed system is going to go.

Dr. Robert, Not only thing to add to that, I think, you know, maybe we might talk about this in a minute, but another part of uncertainty is just about the federal budget in general.

And I think what a lot of people are learning is just, you know, how much of the federal budget is, you know, grants to states and other organizations.

And I think there's just a lot of uncertainty, you know, whether we agree, whether that's a good way to run a government or not like that is the reality that when we talk about, you know, federal highway money or we talk about, you know, money going to school districts or money going to higher ed, like there's a lot of uncertainty about how much that money is going to be flowing in the future.

And I think that is another thing separate from the tariffs, which I think Congress could do a lot to resolve that by, you know, starting to and they are starting to talk about budget resolutions and so on.

But, you know, to try to get some uncertainty about how much control the president's going to have over these budgets and how much how much Congress is actually going to cut once we get through the temporary.

The president trying to it himself.

So I think that's a big part of uncertainty that affects certain sectors pretty heavily.

Well, thank you both for your time.

We really appreciate Dr. Jeremy Haupt doll and also Dr. Michael Pascoe.

Appreciate both of you.

And thank you again for joining us.

We'll be right back.

Welcome back to the program.

Cybersecurity threats are on the rise and state and local governments are facing increased risks from sophisticated cyber attacks.

Arkansas experienced 134 cybersecurity incidents during the previous fiscal year, with ransomware being a major concern.

The University of Arkansas at Little Rock is playing a pivotal role in addressing these challenges through innovative education programs and major grants.

Today, we're joined by Dr. Sanjay Lederman.

Cybersecurity Education research professor, and Rebecca Passmore, assistant professor of cybersecurity at UT Little Rock, to discuss their groundbreaking work in cybersecurity, education and training and that groundbreaking work includes exponential growth.

First, Dr. Lederman.

Tell everybody about the growth that you say Little Rock has experienced in this program and how much it has boosted just here recently.

So in 2021, we started with our bachelor's degree in cybersecurity, and we went from a minor in information assurance to a full bachelor's degree.

We started with six students in 2021, and today we have over 130.

That includes graduate students in our graduate certificate program and our numerous certificates of proficiency in addition to the bachelor's degree.

Well, when you see that kind of growth, it's no wonder why a $4.65 million grant was recently awarded from the National Security Agency.

What kind of impact could this have on the university and the program that you all have?

So it really brings national attention to you.

A Little Rock in the work that we're doing.

And it's a huge trust that the federal government puts in you a Little Rock.

And our entire consortium.

So we will be able to award 25 new scholarships for teachers, high school teachers, teaching cybersecurity this year.

And we brought in four more universities.

So there's seven total now that will be able to offer this certificate nationwide.

And the whole program is designed to educate teachers, high school teachers in cybersecurity so that they can teach four concurrent credit on their home campuses.

And back to the National Cybersecurity Teaching Academy.

How is this aiming to address the shortage of high school cybersecurity teachers?

Yeah, it gives our program the ability to have the teachers prepare the students, but so by the time they come to our our program and they are going through the program learning what they want to do in cybersecurity as it is an umbrella to a lot of different careers and opportunities, they're prepared.

By the time they reach our education and we are able to put them into research and do more educational opportunities for them.

And Dr. Leiderman.

The changes you talk about, not just changes in growth that you guys have experienced at the program from six to over 130.

But the changes in cybersecurity alone since 2021, the use of AI becoming so dominant in that world right now.

Kind of take us through some of the challenges that the cybersecurity world has when you're using A.I.

as an assistant, but also combating it on the other side from those who want to use it for bad purposes.

Yeah, it's it's quite the challenge.

AI is incredible.

It's a very nice assistant.

Helps us with better threat intelligence incident response.

But at the same time, we're using it in the cyber security profession to combat that.

The adversaries are also using it to create more sophisticated attacks.

And they're just getting better at their at their jobs.

One thing that we do that is a little bit different than some of the other universities is we have an industry advisory board.

We meet with our industry partners quarterly.

They tell us what they want to see in their graduates, what skills were missing, how things are changing, what trends are happening.

And we take that information and bring it back into our curriculum, which is really designed hands on competency based.

We do a lot of tabletop exercises with our students, so we're giving them every real world scenario that we can.

And that's in partnership with our with our industry partners to help us, you know, guide that curriculum and doing everything to Beki to help boost interest in this.

Tell us a little bit more about the club that you all have and how it's really, I think, increased interest around cybersecurity and the opportunities that are around with that.

Absolutely.

We have a fantastic cybersecurity club with amazing officers that we have taken the opportunity this semester to bring on industry professionals to speak each Tuesday night when our club meets at 430.

We've invited other colleges to zoom in and watch or attend in person.

We plan on community outreach efforts during the summertime, where we will reach out to Rotary Clubs or senior citizen programs to bring our knowledge to them and help to teach them on cybersecurity, hygiene, best practices.

So our club is really doing a lot as far as the capture the flag events that help teach them, you know, how to respond to incidents.

So it all goes in with their curriculum.

What specific research and training Dr. Leiderman initiatives does the center undertake?

What what are some of the main goals?

The main focus is that you all are trying to make sure that you get across to your students in this ever changing world of cybersecurity, where you're monitoring new threats every single day.

What are some of the main things that you're sharing with your students?

I think what you just said is, is key.

It's ever changing.

And so we teach them to make sure that they're always, you know, researching and on top of things and, you know, lifelong learner.

So you can't just take this education today and think you're going to be set for life because as soon as you think you're an expert in and here comes the bad guy with one more and he's going to one up you, right?

And then and so we've got to always stay situationally aware of what's happening around us.

So that's one of the one of the initiatives that we have.

And then a lot of what we do is just really trying to give our students the most real world experience that they can have, things that they can write on their resume, that they have done this they've participated in digital forensics is a huge piece of our program or, you know, the emerging threats and threat analyst reports.

Right.

All of these things that are going to matter in a job, because when they're graduating and they're going for an entry level job, we want them to stand out.

We want them to be able to have, you know, ten skills over and above everybody else mention jobs.

And that is such a key factor in the world of cybersecurity, because the job growth that that sector has seen has been just like yours, exponential in your program.

And the opportunities beyond that program are so much more now than they were just several years ago.

Becky, whenever you're talking with folks, how do you help open their eyes to the opportunities within the world of working in cybersecurity, where you take them away from maybe the stereotypical computer coding that everybody associated with?

Absolutely.

We have our professors are all industry professional instructors.

We all came from the industry.

So we explain there's government opportunities, there's consulting opportunities, there's corporate opportunities, and every business should have some type of cybersecurity plan.

And so preparing the students to be able to walk into a business as a center was saying our industry professionals preparing them to walk into that business, start those systems settings, system security planning actions and find their niche on what they like to do the best, and then work within the cybersecurity program at a corporation to make it better.

Over 3400 open cybersecurity positions in the state right now and you have 130 in your program, which is amazing.

I know the need is more, but that's where some of these grants come in, right?

And that's where the support from local officials comes in.

The attorney general, for example, that's where you're seeing that, right, Dr. Lightman?

Where it is going to take an all hands on deck effort to help boost this industry and get these job positions filled.

Yeah.

And we really need to focus on the change of thinking, right?

Everybody used to say like, oh, cybersecurity is the guy I go to, the guy or the woman, you know, whoever it may be, but that person can't do it all.

It's we've got to look at it from a leadership point of view.

From a community point of view, you're just as important to the cybersecurity chain as I am, as the professionals are, as everybody who's working.

So we've got to make sure our people are trained, you know, and then have that plan for what if something happens?

What if we are attacked?

What if all, you know, we have a ransomware or a data breach?

I mean, what ifs.

And that is a whole community within a business.

You know, it's not just one person's responsibility, it's the entire business community.

And it even extends beyond Arkansas.

I understand here there's a collaboration between a couple other universities DePaul University, University of Louisville.

So this is a nationwide effort, but centered here in Arkansas.

It is certainly you all are spearheading it at UT.

Little Yeah.

So we started with an idea back in 2021.

We partnered with the University of Louisville and DePaul and a nonprofit Dark Enterprises, and we thought, you know what, Let's create the certificate for high school teachers.

There's nothing out there for high school teachers.

So it was the first in the nation graduate certificate specifically aimed for high school teachers to give them that technical knowledge and the teaching pedagogy.

So we're going to, you know, load them up with all that technical knowledge.

Now, how do you bring that back to your students specifically design at 18 credit hours so that they can teach for concurrent credit on their home campus?

And why is that such a big deal?

Because now the college or the high school students are getting excited about cybersecurity in high school and they're going like, oh, where should I go to college?

Well, somebody who's going to take these nine credits, I just got in high school and and we're just we're building that pipeline.

Yes.

And, you know, you've got a guy who started back or is Right.

So we've got a stable program here at U in Little Rock.

Now we're taking it to the high schools for high schools are piloting the concurrent credit this fall.

So we're very excited about that expansion.

And, you know, hopefully as time goes on, we get it down into middle school and elementary as well.

Becky.

How would you recommend anyone watching if they know someone who's interested to get more involved?

You mentioned the club earlier.

Are there any other ways or maybe that's the best way to get involved with just finding out more information, exploring the options that are available in this?

I would say reach out to us, come to the campus, take a visit, see what we're doing with our new cybersecurity operations Research and Education center, being currently being instructor infrastructure it up.

We we will be able to show you around and tell you everything that we have going on and just think hands on activities, learning it in real life, applying it like it would happen in real situation and just join us and contact us and let us know how we can encourage you to participate.

And Dr. Lightman, only about a minute left, but before we go, some of the top things for folks to watch out for.

I mentioned the big incidents from last year, 134.

But I know every day Arkansans are targeted with cybersecurity, ransomware.

What are the big things for anyone to watch out for here?

Before we go, Just really watch who your contact or who you're sharing your information with, your contact information.

Watch those emails, make sure they're really legit, like from who you think they are and the phone conversations lately.

Make sure you know who you're talking to and that it's not an AI clone.

Yeah, real quick.

You told me something in the break, Did some information about that.

What what is the A.I.

clone?

Exactly?

So it takes roughly 3 seconds of a person's voice sound byte to clone that voice and then transform that into an AI.

And that I can have an entire conversation with you.

And you might think it's me, but it's really not.

It's an AI and 3 seconds is all it takes.

It's getting faster and more scary at times, which is why we have programs like you all have to help educate and of course help spread this information out so people can be better aware of the threats that are available and hopefully combat them with better information.

Thank you so much for joining us today.

We really appreciate it.

Dr. Sandra Leiderman.

And also we've got Becky Passmore.

We appreciate your time for a Little Rock in the program you have there.

Thank you again.

Thank you.

All right.

Thank you for joining us.

I'm Chris Cain.

We'll see you next week.

Support for Arkansas Week provided by the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, by the Arkansas Times and Little Rock Public Radio.