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And hello again everyone and thanks very much for being with us higher education the future of Arkansas College aged generation and the future of Arkansas itself some sobering questions that may defy quick answers but demand immediate analysis among them, not just the cost of a college degree, but its long term value is the expense.

Reducing enrollment will turn to that in just a moment, but first.

The cost of capital.

The Federal Reserve.

Since the price of money sharply higher this week, an effort to curb the inflation that's already has corporations and consumers reeling.

Some thoughts on how the feds strategy will affect Arkansas now joining us?

Doctor Michael Packo's, chief economist of the Economic Development Institute at UALR.

Michael, thanks very much for coming in.

Everything already is costing more owing to inflation.

Now, money is going to cost more.

Is there any particular aspect of the Arkansas economy that is especially susceptible to interest rates?

Or is the impact gonna be felt across the board?

Well, I'm pretty sure the impact is going to be felt across the board.

Of course, anytime we have these kind of tightening phases where interest rates are rising over time, there are certain sectors that are more sensitive to those changes than others.

Those of course would be things like housing, automobile markets, any sort of long term durable goods market where consumer financing is involved.

The whole point of having the higher interest rates.

Is to maybe dampen some of that demand and to put cool down what's really become an overheated economy and we're seeing that in the prices.

Well, let's take a look at you mentioned housing and of course that's a that's an enormous driver in the economy.

Interest rates almost certainly rising well what what?

What's your outlook there?

Well, yes, I. I think we heard news yesterday just in the wake of the the Fed's actions that mortgage interest rates were starting to rise, and that's going to continue on.

I think one of the more significant developments that we saw from the FOC meeting this week wasn't just the fact that they raised the interest rates by an unusually large 75 basis points, but also that their projections for how high and how fast interest rates are going to rise throughout the rest of this year.

Also was revised up significantly the last time they came up with a projection was in in March.

They suggested that interest rate the federal funds rate might be as high as 2% by the end of this year.

Now we're looking at three point 4% as the median expectation of the FMC members.

So we're looking at interest rates that are going to be rising faster and farther than we've thought, even as little as a couple weeks ago.

Chairman Powell seems it seems to be signaling that he's prepared to be as tough as as his predecessor name.

Mr. Volcker was in in just ringing inflation out of the economy.

So for the balance of this year and maybe into next year, money's going to be pretty credit pretty tight.

Are you gonna pay heavily for it?

Yes, yes, I mean the the name of the game right now at the Fed is establishing credibility, establishing some credentials that this inflation will come under control, and that's that's really the the crucial mission of the Fed at this stage is to be convincing that they're they're on top of things.

There's already, you know.

Of course, some criticism that once we've seen a year over year inflation over 8% now for a couple of months that they're already behind the curve.

And that's why it's.

All the more important that they make solid convincing moves right now to to get inflation back under control, which is ultimately what the Fed's mission is.

The the immediate impact, though on Arkansas, on entrepreneurship, it can't be a positive thing for the next for somebody who's trying to launch a new business, a new enterprise in the next few months.

That that's true.

It's going to affect the cost of borrowing on all levels for consumers and businesses now.

Yes, if there are business prospects that are have highly profitable outlooks for the future and regardless of the interest rate environment, then those will still be able to be financed, but probably at higher cost.

And the point is that some other, perhaps less certain projects might lack the funding that they would have otherwise been able to achieve in our sincero interest rate policy we have been under for several months, Mr. And Mrs Arkansas right now Michael, what should they be doing anticipating that that everything's gonna cost more, including credit in the next several months for the near term?

Well, you know we're squeezed on both sides.

If we don't see these increases in interest rates and the slowdown, the overheating economy, that what we're going to see is continued increases in prices.

And that's hurting the average household very seriously as it is.

So I guess the.

It's a it's a bad trade off and the Fed is walking a fine line here trying to bring down inflation and especially inflation expectations at this point without slowing the economy so much that we are pushed into a recession.

So the the legendary soft landing is what we're hoping for.

And we'll we'll see how that goes.

I think we're we're definitely going to see a slowdown in economic growth.

Consumer spending has been proceeding at a really high pace for several months now.

And some of that is is going to slow at this point, and I guess probably the wisest thing to do if you're carrying any credit to.

That's on a variable interest rate is to try to spend that early to to get that down those balances down.

Sorry Michael, a few seconds remaining, I want to squeeze this one in.

What advice would you give policymakers at the state level executive and legislative?

Well, just that the the incoming tax revenues that we've seen over the past several months that have really ballooned our budget are likely not going to continue in the new environment of higher interest rates and slower spending patterns.

So plan accordingly.

Alpaco at the Ulr Institute.

Thanks very much for being with us.

Come back soon.

Thank you and we'll be back in just a moment.

Back now and to hire Ed.

For the past five years, enrollment in Arkansas's four year public institutions has trended downward and when enrollment in our two dozen two year campuses is factored in, the decline spans to a decade.

The economics of higher Ed state supports student tuition fees.

There are obvious factors, but there are others, some of them involving the broader economy.

The implications for public policy and private enterprise.

The future of Arkansas are significant.

Joining us now.

Doctor Maria Markham, the director of the State Division of Higher Ed and Doctor Houston Davis, President of the University of Central Arkansas, doctor Markham.

Let's begin with you.

These figures are are fairly arresting at a time where we we seem to be coming off an era century in which the value of a of a college degree.

Post secondary education was unquestioned.

Now people are starting to question it.

Your thoughts?

Well, absolutely, that's that's a national conversation that we keep having the discussion about the value of higher education.

Although we have seen some increases in the cost of higher Ed, much like everything else in the current economy, has gotten more expensive.

The return on investment is still very strong.

The evidence for the value of college credentials, whether we're talking baccalaureate degrees or certificates, still holds the lifetime earnings potential is still.

Gripping officials very positive for students.

The other thing that we have learned throughout the pandemic and recessions in general are students with these credentials that have the higher level of education.

The more recession proof you are, when you're wages and your employment, so the value is still there.

However, it is a proposition that we continue to make for higher education that it is worth the time and the money invested by students and families.

Let's take a quick look if we can.

At the figures we spoke earlier in the broadcast about a 5 and 10 year span, but let's just look at the the past two or three and the declines in enrollment have been really significant.

In the spring semester of down 7%.

That following increases of almost three and then 5%.

Does not bode particularly well for the autumn semester.

Doesn't Doctor Markham, it doesn't.

We we anticipate continued declines.

We are on trend with what's happening nationally.

You know, there's several factors that play into this.

One is just the general population shift.

We have fewer students who traditionally engage in higher Ed turning 18, and the only way to have more 18 year olds is to be born 18 years ago.

So we've known for a while that that population of students.

It's getting smaller.

Not only is the general population getting smaller, but the proportion of students who typically engage in higher Ed is getting to be a smaller percentage of that population, so we have fewer white middle class kids graduating from high school ready to come into college.

We're seeing a larger proportion of students who are traditionally underserved, turning 18 and ready to come, so it's incumbent upon our institutions and our state to attract more of those underserved populations.

Not only to attend college, but to be successful, and so that's really the focus for Arkansas moving forward.

The doctor.

The cost benefit ratio that young people are looking at now in terms of high rate.

They're looking at the cost of tuition, fees, books, everything that goes into the college semester, and they're thinking wow and so are their parents.

It's just unaffordable.

It's particularly at a time when we're talking about almost 2 trillion in student debt.

Well, and that's one of the things where I think that.

Marie and I are very proud to be a part of a public system of universities and colleges that are more affordable perhaps than our private counterparts.

But that does weigh on families.

One of the things I actually checked this number before I came.

We know that at UCLA graduate with the bachelor's degree, will make $31,000 more a year on average than someone with just a high school diploma in the state of Arkansas.

So we place a premium on being able to as a recruiting students as we're talking with families, especially parents of students that are going to make that.

Investment, we want to make certain that they know facts like UCLA and this would be true of most of the universities.

That's a that's a 5 to one benefit to ratio of that investment in a 19% over annually over a lifetime.

The only thing more expensive than not going to school or than going to school is not going to school in that equation, but the higher Ed seems to be having a difficult time closing the deal, though with that generation, I think that.

One of the things that's really fueling it more than anything else are are demographic declines and then somewhere along the way we've lost a connection to male students.

We have really seen over the last decade, and we've been Arkansas higher education, but nationally higher education, public and private, a decline significantly in the number and percentage of males at our universities and colleges in national meeting.

Recently, that was a conversation and a topic that we've got to solve.

That, and I think some of that.

Is the value proposition making certain that we are accurately representing what that investment is?

But we've also got to make certain that we're putting programs and we're putting opportunities out there that resonate with those students.

Some of these students, some of this generation though, and this question to both of you are looking at the wage scale on on skilled trades, having recently had to summon a plumber.

They're looking at think, wait a minute I can I can make very good money without the stress without the expense of of higher education.

And yet that is not does not seem to be reluctant.

A reflected anyway.

That attitude Doctor Mark I'm in the two year institutions.

Enrollment there.

Well, I would just argue that the plumber that you summoned did engage in higher education, so they either attended A2 year college as part of an apprenticeship program or one of the private programs in the state.

So the value proposition there is just assuming that all post secondary education is college and those numbers should be reflected.

I think the issue that we've seen with some of our enrollment is our students have taken advantage of some of those short term credentials credentials and exited higher education.

More quickly, so we've seen a decline of those long term enrollment students because they have taken advantage of skilled trades programs like plumbing or welding or electricity, and they're out in the job market, which is booming, making sustainable wages for their families.

So part of that is is self inflicted because we have pushed these short term technical feeder market build trade programs for the last several years.

There also is this factor as well, and some in higher education.

In Arkansas Doc Davis or say the state support from the General Assembly simply has not kept pace with the cost of doing business with inflation even.

Well, certainly over a burden has been shifted back to the students to to an extent.

That's unprecedented and, and that's been happening over about a 25 year period of time.

There have been a a shift of public dollars that have been having to go to other priorities in the budget, and higher education is known as the balance wheel.

I think that here all other 42 state that's that's argued as well so so families have have certainly borne the burden of 25 years ago.

Much more of the cost of educating a student at any of our universities and and community colleges.

Was borne by the taxpayers of the state of Arkansas.

Now more and more, it's primarily borne by the students and their families, and that's an education factor as well.

Talking with legislators and making certain that they understand that shift over a 25 year period of time, but making certain that families understand that as well, yeah, Doctor Markham.

Any do you see it at all?

That situation reversing itself?

Any any?

Any significant increase in the level of state support?

I don't see a significant increase in the level of state support directly to institutions.

One of our key initiatives going into the next legislative session will be the development of a needs based financial aid scholarship.

We don't currently have one, so we are the division of higher Ed.

One of our agenda items will be to develop a needs based scholarship using lottery proceeds to help close that affordability gap for some of our families who have a harder time paying tuition and fees at our institutions due to some of the increased costs that institutions have had to shift to students and families.

And this also doctor my well to both.

Doctor Martin will begin with you given all of the fiscal realities of higher end today we had and it was a complicated situation.

But at Arkadelphia?

Well, at Henderson State now an arm of an adjunctive ASU.

But it had to go to a a brutal downsizing.

Do you foresee higher Ed in Arkansas?

A continued consolidation or a consolidation.

I see continued adjustments to be made.

One of the things that is really difficult to do in higher education is get smaller.

We have invested so many state dollars in infrastructure that it takes time to retract whenever enrollments decline.

I do see institutions making difficult decisions about which programs that they can sustain and which need to go.

There's possibility for more mergers.

I think that it's very important that as a system of higher education that we're very coordinated.

And making decisions about where programs reside, making sure that we're not operating inefficiently, and that as many of our students can be served in programs as possible without duplications of state, resources and efforts.

And that's what's happening at Henderson State.

They're making decisions about how best to serve their population, while being fiscally responsible and balancing their books because they have not been able to do so in several years.

Few seconds remaining.

Doctor Davis there years of belt tightening.

Inevitable ohh absolutely.

I mean, we've been very blessed and knock on the little wood as I say this, our overall enrollment.

Our incoming freshman classes have felt pretty steady over the last five years, even as freshman class has been declining the state.

But we still have had to really rethink our operations.

Rethink the way we recruit, rethink the way we reach out to students.

A changing demographic mix of students, especially from a race and ethnicity standpoint.

But yes, belt tightening absolutely at UCLA as well.

Even though our enrollments have largely held.

But that's that's just a fact of life these days.

Alright Doctor Davis, Dr Markham.

Both of you.

Thank you very much for being with us and come back soon.

We'll revisit the issue.

Our rodeo queen, you're thinking, OK news, but not really big news.

We'll think again in this month's edition of Good Roots.

Major funding for good roots is provided by Arkansas Farm Bureau, Arkansas Farm Bureau advocating the interests of Arkansas's largest industry for more than 80 years.

Arkansas counts on agriculture, agriculture counts on Farm Bureau additional funding for good routes provided by the Union Pacific Foundation.

Like being a rodeo queen is just being an ambassador for the sport of rodeo.

You make appearances, you interact with kids.

You just kind of do everything that needs to be done within the rodeo industry.

You're in all around cowgirl, so I mean I was just recognized as the first black one in the state of Arkansas.

I would say, like my first time ever seeing a horse and my first encounter, I was like amazed.

I remember thinking they're so big but I was like Oh my goodness, like I actually get to put a seat.

In this big old horse and ride it my name is Jadeite Kirsch.

I'm 23 years old.

I'm from Fort Smith, AR.

My love for horses.

It started when I was about six years old.

I was introduced to horses because I was sexually assaulted and I went through like counseling and my counselor.

I always say that she introduced me to a horse and she told me that this is a £1500 animal and she was like if you can control this horse.

You can control anything that comes your way.

She set me in a saddle that day and she handed me the reins to my freedom.

Horses are very intuitive with everything.

Going on around them, they don't like a situation or they don't like where they're at.

They're comfortable, they're gonna show you, and I feel like just the way that they're able to express themselves and just be so freeing and so big, but also so loving.

I feel like that's where the connection really comes from.

My family.

They're actually like very city people.

I'm kind of like the only one out of my family that rides horses.

I didn't grow up on a ranch or anything like that.

That was like as quick as I could get to one I did.

So everybody always wants to know what she rides through her mother ride, no, I like them.

They're pretty, they're big.

You know I'm not getting on when she first told me she was going to compete.

It was like I was surprised, but I wasn't shocked and they do the routine for the horses.

I'll freak out.

I used to be at the practice.

It's like OK, other kids sit down we still we got just focus and watch.

What does she fall with it for the she fell a few times but what she do?

She got backed up on her own for someone that doesn't know anything about Rodeo queen and it's just like a miss pageant like a Miss USA except we have horseback.

We have horsemanship when we go through like a horse.

Coronation and everything like that.

It's very difficult.

You know you have to be very intuitive not just with what's going on with the horse that you select to ride, because you don't bring your own horse, they pick it for you, but you also have to know like everything about it, like you don't know what the judge is gonna ask you.

So we go through that and then we take a test as well.

We also have interviews.

You just kind of got to know everything that's going on at the rodeo.

Some rodeos have themes you need to know the theme, like there's a lot that entails a rodeo queen pageant.

When I found out I was first black rodeo queen, I was like, oh man, I have so much to do.

If I'm one of the first, there's no way.

Like I didn't believe it for a little bit, so for me like that's where it became so much less about me.

Like Oh my goodness, if I'm the first like when's the second one gonna be?

And why am I the first one like I I remember being crowned at Coal Hill on my 17th birthday and I remember going on to Google right after that like where?

Where do I?

How can I find the woman to that?

I need to look up to, you know, another woman that looks like me in this industry doing that and I didn't find it.

It's funny to look back and realize like how far I've come and what I really just didn't know.

Whenever I had first started, I wasn't the best rider.

There was a couple of us that had a lot to learn and I was one of them, but I progressively got better, like I progressively got really good.

I didn't go into it having a horse.

I didn't go into it having a trailer.

I just had enough people around me that believed in what I wanted to do.

I was working enough to be able to afford a little bit of it, not even a bunch.

And so as I progressively you know, started having the things that I needed and started getting as good as the girls.

There were so many things that just become a problem for some of the parents and some of the hostility like that I was dealing with.

I was 16 years old when I first went through my racist experience in the western industry and I wasn't with other 16 year old girls.

This was with middle age adults.

They were middle age adults treating me negatively speaking down on me, having their kids, you know, send me videos of me calling me different names, like until this day I'm still dealing with it with the same adults like the same adults that bullied me when I was 16 years old.

Are the same adults that are trying to bully me again as a 23 year old.

I never replied to this stuff on social media and of course everybody see the negative comments when it comes to the racism stuff.

I just open the door and close it.

For me, I look at it and keep on going.

It got so bad that we had like a mandatory meeting with the old Fort Days Rodeo board and they had to come down the chairman and all of them and they had to speak for me in the way that I was being treated on the team and the way that I was being talked about at 16 years old it progressively got worse to the point where you know I had a teammates brother text me things, you know, nasty things just calling me all types of stuff.

Some of the situations that I went through when I was 16 and and on a team with 19 other girls and dealing with the racism from their parents.

Actually, was the reason that I sold everything and you know, I did try to quit being a cowgirl.

I did try to quit their western industry but like just you know for a whole year of not having a horse not having a saddle, not having cowgirl boots and stuff like that like I learned real quick like you can't quit who you are and nobody can take that from you either.

I'm a cowgirl and I'm going to be a cowgirl till the end.

And you know whether they like it or not, I'm here.

She's a go getter.

She doesn't give up on anything.

She fall down, she gets back up on her own.

I just feel like.

She's so strong minded.

The things that she's been through if you Googled her and kept up with her, you know the things she's been through.

Anybody else would have crumbled at her age.

You know a young age like that.

I had parents in boxing me when Jadeja is having a hard time from social media and they tell me tell her to hold her head back up because my child is looking at her.

I have grown women my age telling me that they look up to today and I'm always telling her you think that you're just there for your peers and people younger than you.

You got grown women who look up to you, so keep doing what you're doing.

No matter who tried to step on you.

That's yourself off and get back up.

Having kids come up to you.

You know that are inspired by what you're doing.

That's where I always say what I do in this industry is so much bigger than me.

It's not even about me at all.

It's about the next young kid that can come up in this industry.

Whether it's you know whether you're black, whether you're Hispanic, whether you're anything like I just want to see more diversity in my industry, that's so important that kids see representation and that kids know that while I am this color, I'm whatever.

Color I am or whatever complexion people perceive me as it's like I see someone that looks like me.

You know, it's important that kids see themselves in positions that maybe you know they don't see it all the time.

The knowledge that I want kids to learn and to know through animals through for kids, it's not really that difficult.

We teach kids about food, we teach them about healthy diets and being athletic you can make it so kid friendly.

You can introduce a kid to a cow and be like you know how you love that steak.

You know how you love this?

You know you drink milk all the time like this is where it comes from.

It's getting the kids.

Excited about it, a lot of them just don't know, they just lack the knowledge.

I'm a very proud mother.

People always say everybody till their kids got the limit.

So I tell you there's not to limit because there is no limit.

You keep going no matter what you think you're fighting for.

That is not important right now.

You never know when everything that you're talking about is going to be important enough for you to have that platform for that voice.

For a group of people and and you never know when that time will come, so it's like, never be quiet about what you believe in.

If you believe in something you know, stand on it and own it.

Not everybody's gonna believe in what you believe in.

Not everybody's gonna agree with what you're doing no matter what you stand on what you speak for just never allow anyone to mute you.

Good routes indeed.

That does it for us for this week.

Thanks as always for joining us.

See you next week.

Support for Arkansas Week provided by the Arkansas Democrat Gazette.

The Arkansas Times and KUARFM 89.