Hello again everyone, and thanks very much for being with us.

It was a stunning night.

An epic evening states that in decades had not seen more than a trace of blue were awash in it.

In Arkansas there was a splash of blue here and there to include an extremely close call for one member of the congressional delegation.

While Democratic gains in the House of Representatives has robbed the GOP of its ten year old supermajority.

The impact on Arkansas's congressional delegation was mixed, with aftershocks to be felt here.

And we'll have more on that in a moment with a colleague from Washington.

But first, some familiar faces to pool their reflections.

Jay Barth, professor emeritus of political science at Hendrix College.

Richard Bearden, consultant and former executive director of the Arkansas Republican Party.

And Andrew de Mello, the notoriously neutral editor in chief of the Arkansas Advocate Jets.

Thanks for coming aboard.

Andrew, let's start with you.

Quite an evening and some serious implications, perhaps, for the Sanders administration.

Yeah, definitely.

This was a big night for Democrats, obviously nationally in Arkansas.

We didn't see the blue wave when it came to the governor's race, the Senate race.

And it looks like in the congressional races.

But we saw what kind of I described this kind of a blue ripple where you see Democrats making major gains in the legislature, taking away the GOP supermajority that's needed to pass most appropriation bills in the House, and really kind of creates a whole new dynamic next year in the legislative session, really going to complicate things for the governor for her second term agenda with a lot of things that are on on the table right now, including Medicaid expansion.

I think it really it's going to kind of upend what's going to happen with the debate over that.

Yeah.

And, you know, the House without ten seat Democratic pickups, state House is is getting a lot of attention.

The Democrats picked up one seat in the Senate as well.

And add to that the governor's unsuccessful attempt to unseat three, I think, three incumbent members of the Senate who are already already showing some resistance.

So she had a problem in the Senate in this last session.

So that Jay.

What do you see in January?

Yeah.

And I think Richard can probably speak more to the internal politics of the Senate, but just to, you know, pick up on on Andrew's initial point, you know, the fact that it's that it's a few extra seats above the supermajority, I think it's really important because now the governor cannot just peel off 1 or 2 and get, you know, kind of take away that power.

This is a strong bloc.

I don't think there's any sense that they have division.

I think they're a very cohesive group.

And I think it's going to be a very, very interesting session you're going to have about the Democrats do have experienced leadership that's been there for a while.

Andrew Collins, the minority leader, and some other long term leaders.

But then they have this group of folks that especially from Benton County and from, from some Jonesboro and Conway that I think probably are going to be naturally pretty in lockstep with those.

Yes.

Couple of months ago, Richard, on this very program, you said the balance of property, the balance of power, and it would not change, and it did not on election night, but.

Well, ripple or two.

Yeah.

Go ahead.

Listen.

Absolutely.

And I'll give credit.

Jay and I were talking before we came in because he said there's going to be change in Benton County, Washington County, central Arkansas.

Look for it.

And it happened, right?

It did credit the Democrat candidates for getting out working.

I think the Republicans had a working against them, a national environment.

That was horrible, right?

The president made the comment at vote like I'm on the ballot.

Gas prices are high, 40 billion questions, insurance, all of these things.

And guess what?

The American people voted like Donald Trump was on the ballot.

So that rippled down.

No question about it.

I think there was a high enthusiasm.

I was looking at some of the turnout.

And if you look in many of these counties, among Democrat high voters, they voted like it was a presidential election.

Republicans voted about like they did in the midterms.

So when you add all those things up, ten seats, it could have been more.

It could have been a few more.

But I think all of this trickles back up to a national environment that was just not very good for the refinement.

Yeah.

Refine it just a bit as some.

Was this a vote against Mr.

Trump or a vote for Democrats?

I think it could be a crucial a a little of both.

I think a little of both.

Again, it, you know, just a horrible environment for Republicans in general.

I talked to a lobbyist friend of mine in Texas.

Ted Cruz is the only statewide elected Republican in Texas and and Ruby red Texas.

That didn't just happen because suddenly Governor Abbott was out of touch.

He got swept down the drain with the war.

The cost of fuel, cost of groceries, all of these things combined to hit at one time.

So I think it's a little of both.

Yeah, I think it's you know, I do think it's demobilization.

And if you look at the kind of the hardest core rural Republican counties in this in Arkansas, turnout was low, turnout was was it wasn't crazy low, but it was just fairly low in those in those counties where we saw the biggest movement.

The turnout was through the roof, led by Pulaski County, which usually does not lead the pack in terms of turnout.

Usually those suburban counties and northwest Arkansas.

Those counties also kind of joined in and had that's where the biggest movement really was in terms of in terms of voters was in the suburbs, Faulkner County, Selene County, specially in the northern part of county and then up the northwest Arkansas.

And anything along the I-49 corridor now has a a Democrat representing it until you get to Bellavista.

There's a little bit of space up to the Missouri border, but it's, it's it's a change.

And of course we're going to see in two years whether those folks can hold those seats.

But, I think for all assumptions are once you change, it's hard to get back to a different reality.

Yeah.

Andrew.

Yeah.

You know, this was I've said before that, you know, this is the best political environment that Democrats have had in years.

And, you know, we didn't see the gains that we saw at the statewide level.

But you saw improvement.

You know, even with the Senate race and the governor's race, double digit losses still better than than previous races, especially in the Senate race.

When you look at, you know, Cotton's first election against Mark Pryor, which is much better funded candidate, much more well known candidate.

And I think the test is going to be is this going to create something durable for Democrats, especially in the second district?

It's a razor thin margin right now, and it's very clear this is going to be a battleground district from from now on, especially if Democrats are able to turn out the vote the way they were able to this election.

Yeah.

And and it seems clear at this point, if the gentleman who sits the second district, Mr.

Hill, owes his reelection, and we assume that's a done deal, but he owes his reelection to the redistricting of, what, four years ago?

Yeah.

Which added Cleburne County to the district and then peeled out a swath of Pulaski County in the southeast corner, both to the first and the fourth districts.

That area pretty heavily black population and also very, very Democratic.

And Cleveland County remains a a very Republican county.

It performed that way on 80%, about 80%.

So it was a IT for Democrats.

It was not a fair swap.

It it the population is the same, but it clearly broke Pulaski County.

And I think that was the difference in that race now.

I do think to it's a little they're probably there might have been different candidates in that race if the district had been the old district in this environment.

So I think to, you know, focus only on the electoral results is one thing.

It probably would have just changed the whole dynamic.

We probably would have seen a competitive Democratic primary if it had been the old district.

But but what happened?

Happened.

And it is all tied back to that redistricting.

And we did see in some other states where there was the mid-decade redistricting, especially Tennessee, Texas and Florida.

Democrats overcame that, but they weren't able to overcome it in in the second, there was national money that came in in the last weeks.

It clearly closed the gap and and almost got Chris.

Chris.

Chris Jones over the over the over the hill.

Over over over the incumbent French Hill.

But it just wasn't enough to to get in there.

You go back to the house the pick up in the house and the January session that's coming up.

It would seem that the Democrats would have to or would want to use their new authority carefully and to not overplay a hand.

Richard.

Now totally agree.

Look, we're a small state.

The governor has immense power here.

Any governor has immense power here.

I grew up in a real small town, and at one time, Bill Clinton came to smack over where I was from.

And it was a big deal, right?

The town turned out because the governor was in town.

So I do think Tennessee a pick up nine, but probably ten seat when the Jonesboro seat gets settled.

Which gives them the power to block the appropriation, as Andrew mentioned earlier.

The question is now, how do you use that?

Do you just come in and say, no, no, no.

Or you come in and you give and take.

And I think, the speaker alluded to that today.

I think there'll be some give and take.

They'll have to kind of figure out what they want to get out of a vote here.

And what do they come back to?

So it will be a little bit different dynamic.

But you know, the house is still a very heavy Republican majority, as is the Senate.

And looks just a note about the Senate.

The Senate has always been a little bit different animal.

Years ago we had the Brotherhood and the other hood, and the Brotherhood was made up of a Republican and rural Democrat majority.

You had Republican senator was budget chairman when there weren't but 5 or 6 Democrats.

I think the question will be with the addition of another Democrat in the Senate, does that Senate caucus coalesce a little more?

Right now, there's about two senators that will be friendly to the administration on issues.

Do they now coalesce more where they're the seven of them in solidarity with their 30 new House members on the other end?

Or will they, to try to figure out how to become a structure with, you know, a divided Senate caucus?

I think all that remains to be seen.

Yeah.

Well, back to the second floor for just a second.

You you said that the governor has immense power.

Well, she is now a lame duck.

Plainly is interested in another seat.

How much power does she have?

Well, again, she's the governor.

Right.

She went to bed.

The governor.

She woke up the next day as the governor.

Her agenda will get through.

It may be a little bit of some give and take to get there.

I think clearly at the end of the day, though, I just don't take away that the governor is immensely powerful in this state, and she understands the process.

She grew up in the process.

She understands the ability to speak, you know, to the masses around the state.

So her agenda will get done.

The question is, you know, does it get done early on middle or the end of that session?

But I don't have any doubt that her agenda will get done.

Yeah.

Andrew, I think the interesting thing to watch is going to be the areas where there's not a clear party line divide.

You know, I think the prison expansion debate, I think is a good example of that, where the governor saw resistance from members of her own party to the Franklin County Prison Project.

I think you see some divides from some Republicans on school vouchers, especially rural Republicans.

And I think Medicaid is another area where that that margin is going to be very important.

And also other things like data centers.

You know, there's not a very clear, you know, of, you know, right versus left divide on that.

This is a very bipartisan opposition.

Where do you live?

Yeah, exactly.

And so I think that's going to play into as well.

You know, I think on some of the things that the governor want to do in terms of some cultural issues, things like that, she's going to have votes for that, but it's going to be kind of these more.

Murky areas where I think that the future is going to be a little muddled for.

Yeah.

Has she learned from her mistakes, which is talking about the governor as as a political sophisticate?

There were some blunders in that first term.

Yeah, there's big blunders, some some stylistic, especially around the the lectern.

Lectern I prisons.

Yeah.

Prison, prison issue being the most kind of long lasting.

It just kind of went on and on and on and, and she showed a kind of an unwillingness to, to cave when it was clear that it was in her interest to cave or at least just, you know, say we tried.

Let's go.

Let's go find another answer.

So, you know, that's a great question.

Where and and again, I don't know, the governor nearly as well as either of these guys who have covered there a long time and no known her a lot longer.

But, if she is and I think there is a problem with her looking nationally.

I mean, she's going on to national book tour immediately.

What we have seen around the country is when governors begin to look at higher office, it really begins to hurt them at home, because there is kind of a resentment among legislators that they're not taking care of, of their their home state.

Much of some of these legislators who lost in this, in this race, we're not taking care of their home districts.

And I think that is something that she's going to have to deal with as, as well.

She did not have, in all cases, the best rapport with legislators.

She had some kind of unexpected, folks that she did have good relationships, including some Democrats.

But but there were some, some of her own party folks that she did not have great relationships with.

I don't think they're going to get rebuilt.

And I I'm not betting that she's going to have great relations with the New Democrats who come, but she remains go on her.

But she remains governor.

That's right.

And look, and I, I mean, I don't have any insight as to what she is or isn't going to do.

She does have this national book tour that's kicking off.

She, you know, I think she settled in and enjoys being governor.

You know, the first term, there were maybe some miscues.

I think she honestly enjoys being governor now, and I think she looks forward to another four years.

She sort of alluded on election night that she was going to be here, which says to me she's not potentially going to run for another office, but, you know, she has the right to reserve what she may or may not do, depending on what the political future winds blow.

But again, I think our agenda will get done.

It just may be a timing of when that comes through the legislative session that starts in January.

Yeah.

Here's a question.

What does what didn't happen in Arkansas?

What made kept Arkansas apart from Texas?

South Carolina can't.

Mississippi appears quite likely to elect to unseat a white Republican U.S.

senator and replace her with an African American.

I think I think in in all those cases, it's about demography.

And the fact that Arkansas just remains a very rural state compared to Texas, for instance, as rural as Texas is.

Well, there, you know, there are those megacities that start to add up.

And, you know, little Rock is not that Northwest Arkansas is not that.

And maybe it's on its way to being a little bit more like that.

I think you combine that with, the continued, you know, lower education levels, which has been a crucial part of the Trump.

Trump coalition.

And then why not?

White, nonwhite, college, non-college educated, swung toward Democrats.

Right.

24.

Arkansas's black population is smaller than Mississippi.

Arkansas's Latino population is there and turned out in really good numbers in northwest Arkansas, but it's still very small.

So I think at the end of the day, it's ultimately about demography.

And the absence in the U.S.

Senate race of national money, which could have been a game changer.

Now, could it have gotten Hallie Schaffner over the over over the edge?

I don't think so.

I think 12, 12 points is a big gap.

But, you know, Tom Cotton and Republicans on his behalf spent a lot of money and they weren't able to grow that number anywhere near as far as they had in the past.

So I think it would have gotten it very close.

I think it would have swung a lot more legislative seats, but and it would have saved the second district for the Democrats.

If, if, if National, Republican, National Democratic had invested in the Senate race, it would have implications.

The national Republicans had warned senators that this was going to be a rough year.

And it seems like Senator Cotton was one of the few senators who really took that seriously.

It put a lot of money into this race, raised a lot of money.

I do think the lack of resources was a huge obstacle for Democrats in the in the Senate race.

When you see what's happening in Mississippi, what's happening in Kansas, some of these other places.

You know, governor's race, the fact that you had a candidate who just wasn't as strong as a candidate didn't really raise any money, and he was running against candidate who he could have linked to, Trump in a very intellectual were being linked to Trump would not have helped.

And you had Democrats.

They need to build their bench for some of these other offices.

They didn't have candidates for lieutenant governor.

They didn't have candidates for attorney general.

And so I think there were some missed opportunities there as well.

The shifting demographics, Richard of North Hills, talking about a matter of speculation, concern for both parties for a decade or longer.

Sure.

And I think to some degree it's caught up.

Jay mentioned demographics, and I think that's a big piece of it.

It is an overwhelmingly real estate.

I read somebody had sort of opined that the rural Trump voter.

Right.

It's not concerned about gas or diesel prices.

He doesn't mind driving 30 miles away because his lifestyle in that small town Americana, wherever state that is, is more important to him than the cost of gas.

And so he'll he'll spend the money to drive to not go live in the big city.

I think what's happened here, Pulaski County today, I think now has two state representatives that are Republican and a portion of it one senator.

It's a little enclaves.

There were there were gangs made in Mammal and Sherwood, which used to be reliable Republican areas.

We've seen the same thing now in Benton County.

You know, almost as many people live in Benton in Washington counties now is live in Pulaski County.

It has been ized.

And again, it came down the ballot.

It came down to the JP level.

I think the Democrats were elected the county judge, members of the quorum court, another state rep in Washington County and in Benton County.

Four Republican representatives and a number of local JP's were elected on the Democrat ballot.

So those three counties, now big part of the population of the state, are urban areas, if you will sort of make us look more like Texas, where Houston and Dallas and San Antonio and other states.

So maybe Arkansas has finally just sort of come into where the rest of the country is with an urban versus rule.

How much of a factor was or cultural?

And they did not seem to matter very much in a lot of other states.

Cultural social issues, the hot buttons that have been so successful in recent decades here.

I think this really did come down to affordability.

I mean, the war and very unpopular war.

There's no game plan to get out of it.

I don't know that a lot of Americans understood 100% while we went into Iran.

I just don't score the cost of gas.

The grocery store.

I mean, those things are real durable issues that people, I think voted on.

Absolutely.

The other stuff didn't really seem to matter.

Yeah.

Yeah, I think it almost felt like a distraction, a attempt to distract from the core issues of affordability and the war.

I don't think it had the resonance that it had in previous issues.

Clearly, both the national, the campaigns against, Chris Jones and I guess Hallie Schaffner tried to use it a little bit.

But I don't think it had the same kind of residents.

The person who tried to use it the most was obviously the governor, who featured feature trans issues a lot.

And in some of her ads, I don't think they were particularly effective.

She clearly thought they were.

And her pollsters and the media folks did, but I don't think it had the the ramifications.

And then back to Andrew's point.

I mean, you know, she was not running as particularly strong candidate.

She only ended up, you know, a 50 mid 50s in that race.

And that was a I think we have to say a bit of an underperformance considering how much money that she had.

I think that money could have been used better.

I thought her closing ads were excellent.

Yeah.

Her ads where she really talked about her son.

Seeing the the stars in Arkansas and wanting to always live in a place where you could see the stars.

I thought that was just a beautiful ad.

And she had some closing ads.

If her whole campaign had been like that, she would.

She would have been well into the 60s.

I have no doubt.

But that's not what her pollsters and her media folks said she needed to do.

Yeah.

Andrew, for example.

Go ahead.

The one of the things I think is also really interesting, too, is just how Trump free of campaign this this was he never came in here for any any rallies.

You really didn't see him appearing in ads.

You had candidates who have been closely aligned with him finding ways to distance themselves from from him.

And that may have actually helped to help some of the Republicans here.

The fact that he didn't come in and you'd see him do these kind of rambling rallies where he would talk about, various subjects that had nothing to do with the election.

So, you know, I think that I think that's an area that, that did that probably did help Republicans is I don't know if there was a message for him to not come into the state or to distance, but I thought he had it in the bag.

And but he, you know, he went to other states that that he, you know, he assumed he had in the bag as well too.

Yeah.

Yeah.

It's that is I think the, the, it's it's surprising he didn't come.

And it would not have been, probably would not have been pretty if he had because we're talking about daylight savings time and and Cedric Cotton's stance on that.

You can imagine that that that rally going off the rails.

But it didn't happen.

I am super curious how aggressive the cotton campaign was and keeping that from happening.

And, and, and Congressman Hill as well.

I mean, clearly there conflict especially around the the housing bill really could have been a tense.

But you know, let me go back to, for instance, just one minute and you're right.

Could the redistricting about a difference.

It you could argue it did, but I don't I think we got to give Congressman French Hill credit to he's a different sort of Republican.

I mean he's not wrapped in a Maga flag.

He is a a banker.

He's a business guy.

He works on some serious issues up there in Congress.

And, and I again, I think French appeals to maybe not the hardcore D, but there's some moderates out there that look at French Hill and say he's doing a good job up there.

And I and I think that comes through again.

It is going to end up being as close as race.

French has always run better than he's polled.

In this particular case, Doctor Barr, the polls were right.

This this race was close.

You know, Republicans argued all across the country that, hey, Republicans are under polled.

And this particular election cycle, the polls were right.

I think I do think the anger at Congressman Hill for not standing up to the president more really did drive some of the some of the energy for, for Chris Jones.

I think the question now is how he how he participates in the process from the minority.

Well, the same question can be asked of Mr.

Womack.

They're both both institutionalist members.

You're serious about the work?

Yeah.

And look, the world will change.

Probably the most for, the congressional delegation, but the least maybe for for Congressman Steve Womack.

And I say that this all of them are giving up a gavel in ways.

But Steve Womack is still on the Appropriations Committee.

He's still an appropriate a lot of power, even in the minority, to be able to determine where federal dollars are, where they keep the money.

That's exactly right.

Yeah.

Speaking of money, we had some ballot issues.

Four of them and three.

Three of them went down.

Oh, I know him.

Three, three.

Yeah, I got one.

The one that the business community was really hoping for.

And then that was number three.

Didn't make it.

Richard.

You know, somebody alluded to to the data center issue.

I think people didn't understand number three 100%.

I think there was a lot of link to this is the I'm sorry, the economic development districts.

It would have allowed, you know, each individual community or county to determine what they want.

But I think people thought, is this about a data center?

You know, there's a lot of controversy here in Pulaski County over data centers.

A lot of news about that.

And I just think, again, it came down to people not fully understanding what it is.

And so they came down one, two.

Yes.

They skipped three.

No.

And then they went to number four.

And that was a yes.

Maybe the confusion of the data center issue is what caused number three.

Yeah, I think I think it was part of the issue for sure.

Issue three actually got a little closer than I expected.

I thought that was going to be a bigger loss for that.

I think that there was concern about kind of the absence of kind of clear the what was the voice of the local community in the process.

There was some of some concern about that.

I think there was also concern about, transparency, transparency issues.

We've seen NDAs become an issue with a lot of local governments.

So I think there were some some trust issues that were there.

And so I think you're right, Richard, and that people didn't fully understand it, because I think some of the authors of that didn't fully want people to understand it because because if some of the issues that some of the the material that had been in the in enabling legislation that that was considered could have been brought into the amendment, I think it would have passed quite easily.

Where it lost was the the the metro area of little Rock and up in northwest Arkansas.

And I think there is a sense in Northwest Arkansas, we don't need it.

Right.

We got we got plenty.

We got plenty of economic activity.

I think that's also true in the suburbs around little Rock.

Pulaski County was the big was the big loss.

And that was the margin.

And I think that Pulaski County, especially in the downtown little Rock area, there is a real sense that this was needed to make the downtown River River market area really begin to burst.

That that was a problem.

I think we will see it back, in all likelihood, because it was so close.

Maybe a slightly altered version.

And in fact, I hope it does come back because I don't I don't think it was an inherently bad, measure, but I do think it had some, some flaws in terms of its clarity.

Yeah, yeah.

Andrew, I think it got caught up in kind of the anti establishment, very populist kind of sentiment that's happening right now.

This was a battle election to have the business lobby and establishment figures being front and center on something.

And I think it kind of got wrapped up, as Richard said, in some of the same divides that you see on data centers and some of the divides you see just on economic development incentives as a whole.

And I think it's another one of those areas where it kind of offers a preview of this interesting fight that you're going to see that's not very much along party lines that I think we're going to see play out in other issues and kind of adjacent issues in the legislature next year.

Yeah, that populist spirit is still very much alive.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

And if you see, if you look down, down the four, measures, you know, the first two are hyper populist culture issues, right?

The fourth one is a, you know, a real benefit to rural areas in terms of, of water systems that are put together with duct tape at present and giving some additional resources for that.

So that's got kind of a core populist element.

And then three, as, as Andrew said, very well, you know, was, was was perceived as an anti-communist measure.

Yeah.

But the funny part is three is the only one that had the real advertising, right?

One and two were sort of were here.

Nobody gets excited about a new water system.

Yeah, right.

Yeah.

Vote against guns.

Well that's right.

And I like good water to.

But you know, number three they kind of just presented is hey, you need a new shopping center and you want to bring economic development in.

This is your you know, this is your team.

But again, it just didn't seem to get over the hump with the voters.

And I think it sounded too good to believe in a, in a environment where people were tired of of being sold.

But let me tell you what somebody else said.

And they're right in this Razorback error of where we are, maybe having a commercial about football and going out.

Not maybe they miss them.

Not, I don't know.

I'm not sure.

Razorback fan.

I'm not sure.

Well, here's something that probably won't change.

At least there's no indication of it.

And that's politics in America, including Arkansas ain't getting any cheaper.

Now, if this is an anomaly, we had one individual.

I guess he's still the world's richest man.

Five a half billion dollars.

He spent $200 million in one state.

Texas.

Yeah, it's an expensive proposition, Richard.

Well, it is.

And look, I think not just TV advertising, although, you know, for seven and 11, they're taking a nice vacation.

The Essex over there are.

And and they're probably reeling now from a very low November.

But the amount of money spent on ground game mail, text messaging, all of this to motivate voters.

It has social media, social media.

And again, to, to a large degree, Republicans.

They did it here.

They did not do it in Benton County, I might note, and probably going forward, that needs to be part of their strategy.

But there was immense organizational monies put into north of the river.

I mean, knocking on doors multiple times trying to get voters out.

I just think, again, you were trying to get somebody to come out and vote.

It just came back from Kroger and has two little plastic bags, and they spent $100.

And that wasn't the best as they wanted to hear of, you know, you need more Republicans in the state legislature, but it's not going to get any cheaper.

Afraid going forward, that's going to be the new norm in politics.

Huge sums of outside money.

Yeah.

And and low dollar campaigns beat those, beat those campaigns.

Yeah, yeah.

And in Northwest Arkansas, those candidates had they were all, I think under $100,000.

The winners spent under $100,000.

Now they spend.

I think pretty smartly on targeted, you know, direct media that went direct to computers that I think was particularly effective in reaching the real voters in with messages that they were that resonated in a way that some of the messaging from the from the Republican side didn't.

Yeah, I do think this though, too.

And again, I don't want to take any credit away from anybody, that one.

I think there were some Republican legislators that might have been a little out of touch.

They might not have been.

They might have spent a little too much time in little Rock and not enough time in the coffee shops.

And I say that, you know, somebody mentioned to me there were a couple of candidates that had left over money in their campaign account.

You know, if you've got leftover money in your campaign account, you don't know what's going on.

And, again, it will be interesting to see, as you mentioned, Jay, do the can the Democrat four candidates hold those seats in a in a presidential year when there will be higher turnout?

Could well be they're going to have state representative in front of their name next time.

And we'll follow up on all of this guys.

Thanks for coming in.

As always.

Come back soon and we'll be back with more in just a moment.

And we are back.

And as we have mentioned, all six members of Arkansas's Washington delegation remain members.

Five of them having survived Tuesday night.

If one of them, we assume barely.

But it will be a decidedly different Washington to which they will return in January.

In fact, it is already a decidedly different Washington.

Joining us now, having temporarily escaped that Washington is.

Alex Thomas of the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, covers the Arkansas scene in the nation's capital.

Dear friend, welcome back.

Thank you for having me.

Steve, all six members of the delegation are about to discover the delight, the less than delightful situation of being redressed as the ranking member instead of Mr.

Chairman.

That's right.

When you're the chair, you set the agenda.

You set the policy goals.

You set that timeline for what you want to get done.

And when you're the ranking member, you just show up to work and you lead your caucus.

You lead your party and you try to get stuff done, but you can get overridden pretty easily with just a simple majority, at least at the committee level.

We have five guys who serve as committee chairs come January.

All of them ranking members.

If what we believe to be the case will be the case come January 3rd.

Which means what I mean, beyond beyond just the losing the chair and the agenda.

Right.

So there's still going to be an important member of that committee.

They can fight with the majority with the new chair.

But at the same time, though, they also have to understand they don't have the power anymore like they once did.

Let's say you're French Hill in this Congress.

You wanted to pass a bill to regulate cryptocurrencies.

You got your big bipartisan housing law done.

He doesn't get a chance to set those goals in the new Congress.

Maxine Waters out of California.

She sets the new goals.

Now, the good news for French is that pause for a second.

Now, can you imagine an improbable pairing as the gentlewoman from California and the gentleman from Arkansas?

Well, it's interesting because French Hill and Maxine Waters worked well together on that housing bill.

But if you've ever watched a House Financial Services Committee hearing, it's obvious that you have some political differences.

Maxine Waters is definitely a progressive member of the Democratic Party, and French Hill is a proud Republican.

But there is some room to work together.

They have to figure out where they can work together.

Otherwise, they're going to waste the next two years of the final Trump presidency.

Yeah, part of the interruption, but go ahead.

We were talking here about losing the chair and know exactly.

We believe that John Bozeman is still interested in being the ranking member of the Senate Agriculture Committee.

Sources tell us that Tom cotton is still interested in being the ranking member of the Senate Intelligence Committee.

And while we're talking about Senator Cotton, sources tell us that he's also interested in remaining on that Senate leadership team in this Congress.

He was the Senate conference chair for the Republicans.

He helped set the messaging for the Republicans.

He still wants that job.

He wants to keep that job.

And he sees opportunities still being in that position.

But if you're someone like Rick Crawford, no one knows what's going to really happen with Rick Crawford, because the House Intelligence Committee that's not set up by the conference, that set up by the speaker.

Speaker Mike Johnson put Rick Crawford in that job in January 2025.

Mike Johnson is not going to be the top Republican anymore.

Mike Johnson is walking away from that role.

So what happens to Rick Crawford?

We're not going to know until Republicans figure out what the new pecking order is going to be.

How soon, how much time?

I guess we don't know, really.

How soon will a time for the GOP in both chambers, you know, to get their feet on the ground and to adjust to this new dynamic?

So we know that leadership elections in the Senate are going to be happening next week.

So the Senate's going to start taking shape.

Hopefully we'll know what's going to be happening in the next Congress before the holidays.

The House when it came to the last Congress, they knew who the new leaders were going to be around mid-December.

So we should know how the new Congress is going to look.

By Christmas time, maybe a little bit before then.

So we're not going to be entering the new year 2027 with a lot of unknowns about the 120th Congress.

Yeah.

Well, on the Senate side.

And would you expect any changes Mr.

Thune would seem to be.

Well, yeah.

I'm not expecting any changes, at least when it comes to our guys.

So I think they have positioned themselves to remain influential even as ranking members.

But at the same time, I don't think anyone either John Bozeman or Tom cotton, they're interested in challenging John Thune.

That's not what I'm hearing, and that's not what I've been told.

Tuesday night, of course, is still echoing, reverberating across the country.

And yet and yet plans are underway for 20 2028, right.

I mean, you have to start thinking about who's going to be the presidential candidate who may retire in the delegation if there's interest in leaving the delegation.

There's still a lot of questions that we'll see what's going to be answered.

Maybe by mid 2027.

Mr.

Bozeman is a his term ends in two years.

You've heard the speculation.

Can you share anything with us?

I really can at this time.

I think Senator Boseman's more interested in getting a farm bill done right now.

Right now they are trying to get something done before year's end, and that really is his top priority.

He'll worry about some of the other questions at a different time.

Okay.

Well I'll give you a pass on that.

The farm.

Well, we're coming to a lame duck session.

Can any obviously the temperature of the room has changed a little.

Exactly.

So there's going to be some things that Congress has to get done.

Steve Womack, the representative who represents Northwest Arkansas.

He wants the government to be funded.

Right now, there's a December 11th deadline to fund the government.

We do not want a government shutdown before the holidays, before the new year.

But there's also things that Congress passes every year the National Defense Authorization Act, which authorizes defense programs.

They take that up on an annual basis.

They need to get that done before the holidays.

But there's also a growing list of things they have to do.

Steve, the Nil bill permitting the farm bill, French Hill wants his cryptocurrency bill done at some point.

And those are just for bills and for topics that I'm mentioning off the top of my head, you can see that it's exhausting to talk about because they've had all year to get this done.

There's been, you know, a tug of war of sorts on certain things, struggles.

If you talk to any House member, they will complain about the Senate because they have various bills just not receiving any Senate action.

And you have five weeks to try to get as much as you can done, while also one not going insane, but also preventing something bad like a government shutdown.

Yeah, well, well, let's stay with the AG bill.

The farm bill for just a second because it is important.

It is to to Arkansas.

What what are the odds?

So from what I understand, from talking to Representative Crawford, who serves on the House Agriculture Committee, there are talks underway trying to figure out a final bill that will receive both Senate and House approval.

Here's the problem, though.

In the Senate, you need 60 votes.

You need Democrats and Republicans to back a farm bill to get it out of that chamber and get it either to the House or to the white House.

And right now, they don't have that in the Republican controlled Senate.

Democrats want more time when it comes to states putting their share into Snap benefits costs.

The Bozeman bill has a one year delay.

They would like a two year delay.

Bozeman has told both reporters and colleagues alike.

The one year delays the best he can do.

Yeah.

Can he do better, or are Democrats going to have to just deal with the one year delay?

That's something we're going to have to watch, because that's the one thing that's holding up a farm bill from being sent to the white House.

And it's worth noting, again, you know, we call it the farm bill in the eye, but it has more to do, actually, more to do with asphalt than it does alfalfa.

Right?

I mean, it's an urban it's a nutrition bill.

Yeah.

A lot of that bill has to do with Snap and nutrition benefits.

And when they pass the One Big Beautiful Bill act, they made several changes to snap that Democrats did not like.

Now they were able to pass the One Big Beautiful Bill act through a process called reconciliation.

When you have a bill that involves budgetary matters, you only need 50 plus 150 senators and the vice president.

Every other bill that you consider in that chamber, you need 60 votes.

I don't care if it's, you know, an 80 bill or we're giving everybody a puppy.

You need 60 votes.

And so you're going to need Republicans and Democrats to work together, compromise on a farm bill.

Otherwise a farm bill may not happen in this Congress.

Okay.

We had two members, including the chairman on the Senate side, who are no longer chairs on the AG committee.

What does that portend?

Can we draw any conclusions about, particularly the fact that Mr.

Bosma will no longer be chairman, or is there at least some unanimity on the Senate side anyway?

It is interesting because the Senate Agriculture Committee, in terms of the makeup and the person discourse in D.C., the ad committee on the Senate side is actually not terrible.

They get along with each other very well.

In fact, Amy Klobuchar complimented the one big, beautiful Bill language on farming when she was speaking to Minnesota farmers last year.

The problem is the snap language.

So if they can figure out a way to maybe put the snap stuff to a side when it comes to other issues, they'll see a lot of progress done.

Representative Westerman has sent bills to that committee that has received approval and has received both Republican and Democrat support.

And so that committee is pretty bipartisan.

They work well together.

Not a lot of screaming matches in the Senate committee.

Well, there was some Medicare Medicaid changes to.

That's right.

That portend here in Arkansas, a ferocious January legislative session.

Exactly.

And you heard that from Hallie Schaffner when she was on the campaign trail, worried that people who have Medicare, Medicaid, they're going to lose their benefits because the one big beautiful bill act, what the state's going to have to now figure out is how will it fund these programs, because the state can't just say, all right, everyone, good luck.

They have to figure out how to balance the books, how to make sure people have access to health care, and if they can't give everybody access or they can't figure out the math, they have to go back to the drawing board and figure it out.

There's no other option.

Do we have a sense at all of how how the the new Democratic majorities in both chambers are, are going to conduct business from come January?

Yeah.

From what we understand from Hakeem Jeffries, who will be the new speaker, if what we believe will happen happens.

He really wants to focus on affordability and cost.

And that really was the driver for a lot of people heading to the polls.

Even Senator Cotton and his message Wednesday, reflecting on election night, acknowledged the cost of living and higher cost was the factor for a lot of people voting for Democrats for debility, affordability.

No matter if you live in Pulaski County or you live in Northern Virginia.

It's expensive.

It's expensive to live.

And for Republicans and Democrats are going to have to work together to figure this out.

Otherwise, costs are just going to remain high for Americans regardless of zip code.

Yeah it is.

Is there going to be an impulse toward equanimity?

You hope so.

January.

You hope so.

But I've covered politics enough and seen politics enough where everyone.

Day one starts off.

We're in Newtown.

We're going to be different.

We're going to work for the betterment of America.

Then day two, it's cafeteria.

Yeah, yeah.

Cafeteria at the owl house.

The animal house?

Yeah.

So we'll have to do our best here to figure out how to make this work.

Some of the more strident, some of the more strident voices on the right.

Are not going to be there in January.

Right.

It's a completely different game.

You're having young senators come in to people like Rico out of Texas who, you know, different kind of person who's entering national politics.

That is not necessarily clergymen.

Moving into the two clergymen, both out of Kansas, is the great one in Texas, in Texas, to where Kansas hadn't elected Democrat since the 1930s.

And Democrats in Texas have done well, but not in the last three decades.

And so we're in a completely different ball game now where after years of talking about woke and standing up for conservative values and fighting socialism throughout the last few months, that did not motivate anybody to go to the polls.

And come January, they're going to have to realize that if they want to make America better and make life better for everybody, they're going to have to work together or at least try to work together.

Well, you know, the finger pointing was inevitable anyway.

Yeah, yeah.

And Mr.

Trump has his explanations, but I'm struck by the number of of members in both houses and in the Republican political establishment who say it's you, Mr.

President, your sense that traveling about.

Well, from talking to Steve Womack on election night, Representative Womack acknowledged that for independence, that was a bit of a factor.

For Democrats.

It was a heavy factor.

But at the end of the day, those high cost is what drove people to the polls and said, hey, enough, we're tired of this.

The last two years have been tough for families.

You came into D.C.

promising this golden age of America, this new age for America, where things were going to be better for everybody.

You're going to make America great again.

Again.

And for a lot of Americans, America is not great right now.

I'm playing for bucks a gallon.

Yeah, exactly.

When I was in Bentonville on Sunday, driving back from attending a rally, which we covered, I paid 53, $54 to fill up my tank for my rental car.

Insane.

Insane to do that because that's something that people have to experience every single week.

And I'm experiencing it just one week living in Milton, you know, middle America, middle of Arkansas.

Yeah.

So should we consider Arkansas something of an outlier vis a vis Tuesday night?

It's interesting because Mr.. Mr.. Mr.. Hill's close call.

Right.

It's interesting because if you look at surrounding states, Texas obviously went to Democrats.

Mississippi is a close race.

And then you have South Carolina and North Carolina and Georgia now becoming this blue state.

But it's interesting when I look at that Senate race, to answer your question, Tom cotton put a whole bunch of money into attacking Haley Schaffner, opposing Haley Schaffner, saying that she was part of the radical left.

And what did we see on Tuesday night?

Tom Cotton won by barely 12 points or just under 12 points.

Ordinarily, that would be a stupendous win.

I mean, right.

Yeah, but there's no reason for Senator Cotton to win by only that much.

He has a profile, he has a name recognition, and he has the money to win by just under 12 points is concerning.

If I was him, and I think it sends a message that if you look at the numbers Democrats did well across the country, they may not have won in Arkansas, but they definitely made a point to the Republican incumbents that you need to do something.

Well, they want enough to flip.

At last count, ten legislators in the House of Representatives alone at the state level.

Ten.

Exactly.

I mean, the state level, they got the message at the national level, you're going to have six people who hopefully look at those numbers and go, okay, we got the message.

And I think Senator Cotton message Wednesday that he shared, it reflects that.

So will the other five feel that way too?

Based on my conversations.

Election night I think so.

Wither Governor Sanders, what's going to be the take on her?

Do you know in Washington?

I really don't know.

She's about to go on a book tour.

She has a new book coming out.

So she's going to be in Washington, D.C.

on November 17th to discuss that book.

But this is kind of the process you do when you run for higher office.

Right.

Right.

Write a book, release it.

Go on a tour.

Talk about how much you love America, baseball, hot dogs, all that jazz.

And so, does she have higher ambitions?

It's possible.

But keep in mind, they talked about Senator Cotton running for president in 2024.

And come the midterms, right on the eve of the midterms that year, he said, look, I'm not going to do this right now.

My kids are too young.

It's not right in terms of the timing.

I'm going to stay in the Senate.

And that may be a situation that she thinks about with her young boys.

And it's going to be interesting seeing how this book tour goes.

Everyone has ambitions and there's nothing wrong with ambitions, but there's also the human element, you know, is it the right time for her to run for president?

What's the cost on her family?

That's something that she's going to have to weigh out, not just in the coming weeks, but the coming months in the coming year.

Yeah.

And the primary level in both parties, you run from the left or the right, depending on your party, and then you tend to govern from often anyway.

Governance from the center.

Do you?

Is there a sense at all that either or both parties may in January, kind of move to the center?

You know, the things that don't capture headlines?

A lot of the times there is that sense of there's cooperation here.

The I will the one of the best examples of that is when they were working on the Clarity Act, the cryptocurrency bill in the Senate.

The two people who were involved in that in the Senate Agriculture Committee were John Bozeman of Arkansas and Cory Booker of New Jersey.

And those two guys don't necessarily agree with each other 100% of the time if the party identification didn't make that obvious.

But even Booker, who did not like the final product, said this was one of the most rewarding processes of my life.

Working with John Bozeman and trying to get something done, even though we didn't agree on the entire package.

And I'm not going to support it.

Yeah, I think that's, from my perspective, a sign that cooperation is possible.

People want cooperation and compromise and a willingness to work together.

It's just a matter of how often can we do that?

And how often do we stick to our guns and say, no, we're not going to do that.

I'm going to stand by who I am and I'm not willing to budge.

Yeah.

So maybe on each side a little less ideological, maybe a little bit.

I mean, Donald Trump is in his final two years as president.

There's not much in terms of sway he has on Capitol Hill.

There's not much there.

He's going to have to do something.

He can't just send the office and veto every single bill.

So there's going to be some push and pull between the white House and Congress, and there's going to have to be a lot of moments where someone's going to have to say, you know what?

For the greater good, this is the right thing to do.

You cannot let perfect be the enemy of good.

Yeah.

And one final question here we have if we've noted, we have two Arkansans on the Intelligence Committee chairs right at the moment.

At the moment.

Yeah, yeah, at the moment anyway.

And then everyone was so many stake in the defense appropriations bill, you know, Camden, South Arkansas and what's little Rock Air Force man.

Can we expect some sort of shift in official attitudes in terms of national security legislation?

And much of that's in the hands of the executive?

Of course, I don't believe so.

And one of the reasons I say that is because Senator Cotton, Senator Bozeman and Representative Westerman protected the Pine Bluff arsenal that was at risk of being closed down and all three of those guys down to the Army and said, no, you shouldn't do this.

There's ways that you can protect this facility.

And like you said, breathe new life into Pine Bluff Arsenal.

And that's exactly what has happened.

So I think when it comes to defense, it's one of those very rare bipartisan bills that doesn't get a lot of fight and a lot of pushback on Capitol Hill, even with things like the Iran war.

It's not one of those things that's very controversial and gets people to engage in shouting matches on the Senate or the House floor.

Yeah, got into third because we're out of time.

Come back.

Get back more often.

I need to, I need to, all right.

Thanks a lot.

Thanks, Steve.

And that does it for us for this week.

As always, we thank you for watching and see you next time.