Support for Arkansas Week provided by the Arkansas Democrat Gazette, The Arkansas Times at Little Rock Public Radio and hello again everyone, and thanks very much for being with us.

It is that time of year.

Increasingly, it's always that time of year.

And since we now know who's running for what, we'll get an assessment of the Arkansas political landscape in just a moment from a pair of our state's political pros.

First, the challenges facing the US abroad and at home.

There's was anyway the prospect of a government shutdown, and maybe there still is.

The latest crisis has passed the latest.

Well, the next budget deadline is in mid January.

There's another after that one overseas fighting in two regions.

We're joined up top tonight by Representative French Hill, who recently traveled with other members of Congress to both the Mideast and Ukraine, and who voted with the House majority for the speaker's compromise budget proposal just short hours ago.

Couple days ago, Congressman, anyway thanks very much for being with us.

We have dodged we well, thanks very much for being with us.

Yeah, we've got a little satellite delay there.

Once again we have dodged a bullet, but it's short term as I mentioned there's a another vote coming, another deadline coming up in January and then two weeks later another in February.

Can you what's the outlook here?

Well, the House is now completed taking all the appropriations bills through the committee process and trying to bring them to the House floor for amendment or for passage.

We didn't pass all of them, but we successfully passed across the House floor almost 80% of US domestic and defense discretionary spending.

So that's good.

So this time we have now between now in mid January, 1st of February is to try to get a majority of those bills now passed through the Senate which is behind us on their floor action and buy those extra weeks we need in order to to get that work done.

So I'm somewhat optimistic that having dodged the perennial Christmas omnibus spending bill that we're on track to have these bills individually considered or considered in much smaller mini buses and try to get a bulk of that work done before the end of January.

The your your new speaker says there won't be any more CRS, he's continuing resolution, no more stopgap funding.

Can he achieve that?

I think where he is now.

And he's told this to Majority Leader Schumer in the Senate.

Look, we've bought the time we need.

We were thrown off track by the time wasted in a minority's attempt to get rid of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

That was a mistake that cost the House five weeks of high quality time finishing up this appropriation work.

And what Speaker Johnson has said is, look, if we can't get this done for 2024 between now and the 1st of February, I'm only going to support a continuing resolution through September 30th, 2024.

Meaning if we can't get this work done now, we'll just CR the rest of the the spending until And of course, that kicks in a 1% across the board cut, which no one wants in the House or the Senate particularly.

So he thinks that's the ultimate kick in the seat of the pants to get this work finished before the 1st of February.

Well Sir, a great many members of your conference in the House wants significant spending cuts and in fact the Speaker's compromise relied heavily on Democratic votes to get it passed.

What are the The dynamics would seem to be still in play infra party dynamics.

Congressman would seem to be still in play.

Are they not?

Well, majority of House Republicans voted for this two step CR that the Speaker proposed.

A Democrat supported it.

The reason why I think that that one of those motivations was they know that five weeks was lost due to 8 people spending a bunch of time to throw McCarthy out of his speakership #1 #2.

This plan was accepted by Chuck Schumer and Mitch McConnell in the Senate as a good plan to go past the the Christmas holiday and not produce an omnibus spending bill.

So that was very encouraging to members in the House in both parties because they've done all this work in committee.

And finally, look, I think it'll lead to the spending numbers that were in the Fiscal Responsibility Act that was negotiated by Speaker McCarthy and President Biden.

So I think that's where we're going to end up on spending.

We may have some categories that'll be a little less, some categories a little more.

But the best way for conservatives in the House to get a better spending deal is to get these bills into conference and negotiating with the Senate, it would seem to us from the outside so that it's much easier to do business on the Senate side of the Capitol, at least in terms of the White House position, than it is in the House.

So let me phrase my question in a slightly different way.

Those eight members that that that compelled in their own way, there's the the shutdown of House business for for quite a while.

Those forces are still in play.

How can you deal with them in the next Congress?

Are you are you going to have to do this all over again?

Well, that remains to be seen.

Of course, the irony in all this is the alleged, One of the core alleged reasons why those eight members wanted to vacate the chair and toss a Kevin McCarthy out of his speakership was for continuing resolution proposals.

Both.

One we just voted on last week looks just like the one that Speaker McCarthy pitched several weeks ago that gave us the time we needed to finish the work.

And instead of finishing our work, we went into a five week political fight over the speakership.

So there are the hypocrisy of those eight is not lost on on me in this particular matter.

On to Foreign affairs if we could, Sir, you just recently got back from Eastern Europe, from from Ukraine.

What did you see?

What did you find?

Well, first I wanted to.

I took two Democrats with me, Steve Lynch of Boston and Mike Quigley from Chicago.

Both are strong supporters of our work in in Ukraine.

We wanted to do three things.

First, assess the battlefield tactics for ourself.

We talked to the US military assessment and had their personal battlefield assessment of Russia V Ukraine.

We talked to the intelligence community for their own assessment and then we talked to the Ukrainian military.

So that's number one.

We wanted to see where we were.

Had we made progress since the summer counter offensive or is it a true stalemate that you read about in the newspaper?

Secondly, we wanted to find out what weapons systems needed to be provided to the Ukrainians and find out, is it true that Joe Biden has slow rolled all this equipment and created this stalemate due to his temerity in getting the Ukrainians actually what they need?

And then finally, we talked about what the Europeans are doing in Ukraine and all the auditing and Inspector General work to make sure that American taxpayer dollars are being effectively accounted for in Ukraine.

So we accomplished all those things in the very short 12 hours that we were in Kiev.

And so I was, I was pleased with what I learned there.

It's helped me decide what we need to change in the approach President Biden's got in his supplemental appropriation.

There would seem to be some resistance, some real.

Well, there is some real resistance there in Congress, particularly among conservatives, toward continued funding for the effort in Ukraine.

Can that be, can American aid be sustained?

Do you have any concern about that?

Well, Steve, I believe that we'll have a strong bipartisan vote for supporting our allies in Ukraine and Israel and also in the South China Sea and support for a foreign military, sales to the island nation, democracy of Taiwan.

I think that will all take place.

I think some of the concern among House Republicans about Ukraine is the president's strategy doesn't seem to be clear to tie the actual weapons they need with the end goal of proving to Putin that he isn't going to win here.

So they have some very technical tactical concerns.

And then they believe, many of my House colleagues believe that Europe should be contributing even more financially toward the Ukrainian monthly budget support number.

So here's my view on that.

First, let me clear up a couple of myths.

Europe has contributed a lot more money towards the Ukrainian effort than the Americans have.

I think that's not well known in our own country.

I think many American taxpayers think that the US is footing the bill for everything in Ukraine.

That's not accurate.

We're the world's leading military.

So yes, our military equipment that we've transferred and provided to Ukraine is is modestly higher than that from European nations.

But on the humanitarian side, it's two or three to one European dollars to contributions from the United States and they also contribute more to the Ukraine monthly budget support.

Last week, House Foreign Affairs marked up my bill, the called the Ukraine Reconstruction Act, which is taking frozen Russian sovereign assets and using that money to fund Ukraine instead of taxpayers in France or the United Kingdom or in America.

And that bill, I took the guts of my bill, Ukraine Reconstruction Act and put it in Chairman Mike Mccall's bill called the REPO Act, which I think will help get more votes because we're going to use Russian money to fund Ukraine's reconstruction and Ukraine's budget gap as opposed to just our taxpayer resource.

Congressman, we just got seconds remaining.

You brought up the Pacific and I want there's of course a meeting of the minds, heads of state, China and the US The head of China's president says the US had better resign itself to eventually anyway Taiwan being absorbed into China.

You accept that you agree with that.

Are you what your thoughts on that?

Well since 1979, we have supported the Iowa nation of Taiwan with military support and support of their democracy.

It was an authoritarian dictatorship basically between World War 2 and the late 70s.

But now it's the most vibrant democracy in that region of the world.

They are the ones who ought to decide whether they're part of China or not.

And 2/3 of the people in on the island of Taiwan, no matter what their political affiliation, want to remain a democracy, a free economy.

And while they're affiliated under the umbrella of China, they want to remain an independent nation.

Got to end it there, Sir, because we're simply out of time.

We'll pursue it more on another time.

Thanks, Congressman always for coming aboard.

Happy Thanksgiving and to you.

And we'll be right back.

And we are back.

Maybe you would rather not think about it.

Not yet.

Maybe not ever.

But the campaigns of 2024 in Arkansas already are under way, finalized.

They were just a few days ago when the tickets closed for partisan primaries as well as judicial seats.

Some thoughts on the outlook now from Michael Cook.

On the Democratic side, Bill Vickery from the Republican.

Gents, as always, thanks for coming in.

Thank you.

OK, we got, we got things more or less settled.

First thoughts, Michael.

Well, we're going to have a interesting election year on the, at least on the legislative level, Democrats did a fantastic job at Canada recruitment.

This time, the largest number of people they've been able to recruit in almost in literally 10 years, I think 62 in the House side and a good number in the Senate side.

The best thing to happen to Arkansas Democrats this time around has been Governor Sarah Sanders.

Her various missteps and debacles has really energized the party and is really, you know, caused them great ways to recruit good candidates.

Yeah.

Victory.

You're going to put up with that?

Yeah.

So one, I would say hats off to grant to Neil, the executive director of the Democratic Party.

I think he's done an outstanding job recruiting candidates to run.

As Michael pointed out, you got a full slate.

A lot of folks in in races in the fall.

But if I could use a college football recruiting analogy.

I think Republicans are filled with a bunch of five stars as we head into the fall elections.

There'll be some minor in in inner party skirmishes.

It's odd to have full campaigning going on at Christmas time, but but that's what we're going to get given the the bump up in terms of our primary.

So December, January, February, that's the the typical campaign season.

So you'll get some door to door around Christmas time but really in the in the in the fall I think Republicans can can look to I'll disagree with Michael in this sense.

I think they can look to a governor that will be both supportive has raised money will continue to raise money for candidates and I think you'll see again a Republican sweep.

I doubt that Republicans dip below a super majorities in either house.

Well what Michael was alluding to the podium thing and some of us say do you see that taking any kind of significant toll on it.

I don't simply because Joe Biden it looks like will be on the ticket.

That's a presidential year.

It looks like we're going to have a repeat of 2020.

I think that bodes well for Republicans running up and down the ticket.

We're very much a fire engine red state and so that's why I I just I don't see any drop off in Republicans winning and and I think it's a it's a big it's a big day on Election Day in November of next year.

Yeah let me stay with Bill just one second the in for party do you see rivalries contest unusual surprise put it that way surprise.

I think this is a part with listen we saw it for decades and decades amongst Democrats that was when the real races occurred and the general election was just a a de facto event.

I think the same thing here a lot of open seats.

I think that's the other thing we had a ton of open seats in the last cycle.

We see quite a few open seats in this cycle.

So that's really where I think you'll see the who's more conservative campaigns come out.

Yeah, Governor Sarah Sanders, you know, we're talking about her and the and the the lectern and the FOI where she's trying to gut government transparency.

I think what will happen next year, I mean, obviously Sarah Sanders is going to come out for the Republican nominees for State House and state Senate.

But I don't think because her popularity has dipped her effectiveness in getting these candidates elected will will hurt these Republican candidates and help Democrats because now they have they.

There's some clearly some things Democrats that's going to run against in the fall of next year.

Everything from Republicans desire to ban books, cutting of a public funding with the Arkansas Learns act.

The gutting of the child labor laws.

I mean Democrats have some good issues to go after these Republican incumbents.

Over a dozen or more years ago it was Obama Obama, Obama.

This year it's likely to be as Bill indicated Biden Biden, Biden.

We already know what's going to happen election wise in Arkansas on the presidential level.

And you know Biden is not going to win Arkansas and saw.

I just don't see that as effective as it was with Obama down ballot.

I just don't see that happening.

I think the issues will be more local and I think Democrats will be on the offense in terms of controlling the narrative and pointing out these Republicans horrible records of, you know, subsidizing rich kids in Little Rock and Benton County to go to private schools to desire to tell you what you can and cannot read at your Public Library.

Back to Bill for just a second and that's on the, you talked about the opening open seats.

There's some retirements that weren't mandated by term limits.

Yeah, it it has been, it has been interesting to see members because you know we put term limits in place.

We don't want to see people to serve 30 and 40 years in the state legislature.

But there is a natural turnover that occurs.

And I think as members who have served a while, especially maybe as they're getting on up there in years or as they look to their family and think I need to really focus in on my career and try to earn a living for my family.

Those are the kinds of things that affect these members as they choose to to step aside for a while not an ideological and and and your no simply because on the Republican side of things it's conservative and more conservative and that's sort of where the battle is held.

A lot of a lot of good people are very conservative that just step down for like I said for family reasons or other concerns.

Yeah Michael be curious to see how these new crop of people interact with the you know the people that have been there for a while all there who gets elected will will determine on how how the the the agenda gets set for the the upcoming legislative session.

It's funny, we're already thinking about 2025, but I'm curious to find out who what these new people who you know who gets elected both of you with kind words for the Democratic State Chair for recruiting.

That includes candidates for all four congressional seats.

Grant O'Neill has done a fantastic job as the chairman of the Democratic Party.

We've got 4 great candidates for Congress in the second district.

We've got a good veteran with Marcus Jones who served almost 30 years in the US military.

Over in the first we have Rodney Govans, also a veteran and and social workers.

We've got good candidates up in Northwest and in South Arkansas.

So he's done.

He and his the team down there have been very aggressive at at recruiting everything from veterans school teacher business owners people from you know that look and are like Arkansans and as Bill Victory says fire engine RedState all four districts well but you have to you have to build the opening Michael.

I think the the opening is just having good candidates.

I mean these are all going to be tough races that cannot be discounted.

I mean we are still a red state but having good candidates who are on the on offense going after the Republicans and their records makes a difference and you know start slowly rebuilding the party both from you know JP all the way up to the US Congress and notable bill victory and up in the northwest corner a an incumbent with a primary.

Yeah state Senator Clint Penzo who's not up for re election this time has chosen to get in the in the ring and run against sitting Congressman Steve Womack.

That'll be an interesting race.

That is one of those races that has a national perspective to it in terms of the Republican primary, when I talk about campaigning in the in at Christmas time.

If you live in that part of Arkansas, you're going to see a lot of ads at Christmas time for AUS congressional seat because a lot of folks outside the state of Arkansas are going to be watching that race very closely.

Interesting also Bill because he by all appearances he is going to run to the right of Mr. Womack.

Correct.

And I I think that's that's where the ideological battle happens.

Now it's right or further right and and a lot of it is, it's sort of the stand your ground versus the common ground types.

What's the better philosophy in terms of conservatism and ruling?

Do you give a little bit so you can get some more or do you make a principled stand and say no?

So that I think is sort of the battle that's playing out inside the Republican Party now.

Well, Mr. Wallach has made no, as a matter of fact on this program as recently as a couple of weeks ago was openly disdainful for the hard right of his part of his conference in Congress.

Is that going to damage him at all?

Hey, look, both of these gentlemen are very honest about who they are.

I think we're going to see a very honest campaign about who they are.

And then it boils down to the Republican primary voters in Northwest Arkansas.

So Michael, you know who knows what's going to happen in that Republican primary.

It's always fun to watch the Republicans go after each other and try to far outright flank each other.

They go so far to the right.

Democrats, they go so far to the right, sometimes they'll take crazy stands, which then hurts them.

In the general election, I'll be curious to see how this race turns out, if Womack wins it, or if it's close or it's just unknown at this time.

Judicial races, we've got 44 Chief Justice, we've never seen anything like this.

For Supreme Court Justice.

We have three women who are on the Supreme Court running for this one seat, plus a former Democratic state representative, Jay Martin.

It's interesting with with the three current Supreme Court justices.

All of them are tough campaigners.

They they work hard, they raise money.

And these three women there are are fierce competitors and it's impossible to know who's going to come out on top.

So two of them are going into the runoff.

It's just impossible to know which two.

Well, you got any clues, Bill?

Any thoughts?

I have.

Listen, the judicial races in Arkansas are the most important races that most of us know nothing about.

And you do see the under vote as you go down the ballot.

And what's interesting to me is the hard, passionate extremes of both parties that you would think would completely we'll skip over judicial races, that we just don't vote for Supreme Court or appellate court or anything.

I mean in great numbers in Arkansas, which means that's a narrow universe to whom they're campaigning.

And that has massive power over the political system in Arkansas.

Well, I guess 1/4 century ago or longer now, the great hope in the constitutional amendment was to make these judicial races nonpartisan, declare them nonpartisan, and they run on a nonpartisan basis.

But increasingly, they have taken on a partisan.

Of course, a lot of times you have candidates saying I'm the progressive or I'm the conservative.

Most now times it's it's conservative.

But on the Supreme Court race, how do these three candidates differentiate words?

Yeah, but if they're all cut from the same cloth, you know, I'm curious to see does it turn into a mudslinging or is it just a a standard race where they try to come up with with ads that make them stand out.

Because again as we all know these races are incredibly important but the average person probably couldn't name more than one judge it if to save their life.

And on the one hand I appreciate it's very high minded, the Canon of ethics that we have around judicial races.

They can't know who give them money.

And they it's nonpartisan, it's this or that.

But in so many ways, we're asking for this out of the ordinary experience in terms of a campaign when in reality you run a campaign based on your opponent in the back and forth and an engagement and often times a partisan bent.

I just think the way we do judicial races in Arkansas is a little screwy and that makes it more difficult.

You know, I do a lot of judicial races, and I tell my clients, you first have to be a politician.

You have to be, you have to go out there, shake hands, go to events.

Obviously, you cannot ask for money.

Hand out the cards, hand out the cards.

You're a politician so that you become so that you you can become a judge and be nonpartisan and be fair and impartial.

So it's this weird dynamic that we have.

But look, at at the end of the day, we get to select who we want to serve us on the bench.

And I think that's good for our democracy.

Were we always a little bit naive?

And you look at the US Supreme Court all set, excuse me, 97 Arkansas 9.

We've all got a partisan background to 1 extent to A to a certain extent.

And sometimes some of these candidates play a little bit too, too cute in terms of you know, having people endorse them or or maybe have the Republican state Rep or state senator from their area.

But you know it's it's still tough for voters.

It's you always have to find a way to hook to make yourself stand out.

Especially when you have two people that are cut from we're both conservative.

Well how do you how do you stand out?

How do you make voters care about these important issues.

What's your advice then, Bill?

Victory when you.

Well, look, I think you got to change the rules a little bit or else you allow the dark money or outside money campaigns to come in and shape the debate, shape the narrative during the campaign.

Well, there's quite a bit of that.

Yes, now, but it.

But at least when you're running at openly and you're, you know, you're campaigning, you're asking for money, you're doing all the things that a regular candidate does, then you can at least be a little more honest about the whole thing.

It is.

I don't want to say there's a level of hypocrisy in politics because good knows we've that's never happened before, ever.

Of course, but we do.

I think we just look, look, let's change the rules.

I mean, we've allowed NIO in the transfer portal in college athletics.

Can't we let a Supreme Court Justice say what they really think?

And to piggyback off of what what Bill is saying 30 seconds.

You're not allowed to know if you're running for judge who technically gave you money.

But if you go to a fundraiser and it's 100 bucks a head and you see people there hello you, you have a sense of who is who is giving.

So it's this weird kind of hypocrisy that we kind of do.

But good fun, good insights, gentlemen.

Thank you as always.

You'll be back soon, I promise.

As always, thank you for watching.

See you next week.

Support for Arkansas Week provided by the Arkansas Democrat Gazette, the Arkansas Times and Little Rock Public Radio.