It is another edition of Arkansas Weekend.

We welcome you.

And thank you for joining us.

The stark realities facing Arkansas farmers, especially those raising row crops, notably those in the business of soybeans.

There is some relief in sight, but precious little.

And for many, the crisis grows worse by the hour.

In a moment, an update on the situation.

But first, a story not at all unrelated.

The suspension of a federal program that helped feed almost a quarter million Arkansas, Arkansas.

Since the fiscal stalemate in Washington has sidelined the Special Nutrition Assistance Program, snap even should the two sides reopen, the government getting snap back up to speed won't be quick or easy.

In the interim.

In the right now, the demand for help from non-governmental organizations has skyrocketed.

We are joined now by the director of one of the largest of them, Brian Burton of Arkansas Food Bank, and another Margaret Douglas, executive director of Helping Hand of Greater Little Rock.

We will begin, Margaret, with you.

I said the demand has skyrocketed.

That has been anecdotal.

And also there have been some documented in your words.

What's the demand now for food?

In recent days, demand is greater than ever before.

We are open than ever.

Yes, even during Covid.

The numbers are to me.

We have more people waiting.

More people in need.

In Covid, it was a sort of a flat line.

People coming and going.

People were afraid to get out.

In this case is people.

And they are waiting for hours to get in to see us.

We open at 9 a.m., when I left this morning.

There are cars out there, 730 people waiting for us to open to get some type of, physical food nourishment for their families.

Brian Burton, your experience?

These are the horrific stories we're hearing from across our 33 county service area, with 330 pantries on the front lines of this.

Steve, most people don't realize that 80% of hunger in our country is met by federal nutrition programs.

And Snap.

These programs have stopped, and therefore the charitable food system is carrying the complete demand, and we are not set up for that.

We normally meet about 20% of the need, but we're seeing a 10 to 20% increase across the state and in urban areas, a 30% increase.

Covid area, Covid level demand, as Margaret said.

But without the government resources.

So stay with that for just a second.

The gap NGOs, the private sector, it's an enormous burden.

How close are you coming right now to to closing that gap?

Well, we we've we cannot close the gap.

And when the federal budget cuts were enacted last summer, we warned all of our elected leaders that we can't just step in.

For every meal the charitable sector provides.

Snap provides nine meals, so 1 to 9, it gives you an idea of the the gap there.

And so there's no way we can do it.

But we, obviously do everything we can.

We are pushing out record amounts of food.

The community is rallying around us and bringing us donations, but it's going to be a very serious struggle.

The longer this goes on, Margaret, the, the scale of it.

But many of the people that you're serving that you're all going to say, both of you, that your organizations are serving.

Are they working people or are they a disabled people?

Who is accessing yours or who needs your services?

The working poor.

First of all, mothers who have children and, still, they are unable to go to work.

They lose their jobs, which are probably only play a minimum wage.

Because we also partner with Arkansas Children's Hospital.

We send 50 bags a week to the different clinics to try to provide food for, some families.

I have our elderly, disabled.

We also have disabled veterans.

We are there for, people who just don't know where their next meal is coming from.

This week, when the governor was there and I introduced her to this young lady, I had a young lady in with a two week old baby on her shoulder.

Two weeks.

She told me she had no food at home for her children.

She had been off from work, due to her pregnancy, and she had a few more young kids at home, and she was there for whatever we could give her, whatever assistance, diapers and food.

Brian Burton, is that the profile you're seeing?

It it's so emotional.

I've been in this work 29 years, and you would think I would be familiar and and and not be as affected by this.

But what I'm seeing right now, I've never seen in my entire career, or I see desperate federal employees, 20,000 of those around our state that haven't had a paycheck in over a month.

And now folks that depend on Snap to come in to their empty cards.

We are seeing people not just shifting resources, but really desperately trying to figure out how to make ends meet.

And like Margaret said, this isn't just a homeless, person or or some of the people that you would typically see in standing in line.

Many of these are, middle class people and, and, low to moderate, certainly.

But a lot of the people in lines look like you and me.

And so this is really in that way similar to Covid, because you're seeing so many new people come into our, pop up Drive-Through pantries, as well as the, the storefront partners, like, like, like Helping Hands.

And so it it is a difficult, tumultuous, uncertain time.

But we always say we have hope.

We do have resources.

And we are, we have the know how.

We have the infrastructure.

We've been doing this for 41 years.

We have marvelous partners.

We'll do everything that we can that we have the capacity to do.

Well, I was going to ask the federal furlough, of the furlough of federal of so many federal employees.

That has.

To what extent has that intensified your workload there or the demand for your services?

Steve, we've been doing, drive through, we call them pop up pantries at the airport for the TSA workers now for the last three weeks.

Some of those stories will will hit you hard.

One lady had worked for the state for 20 years and had just switched to a federal job.

And then this happened.

And she's without income.

One gentleman asked us how much the food boxes cost that we were handing out to the TSA workers, and we said $25.

And he reaches through his window and he said, I want to pay for the person in line behind me and gave me $25 cash.

And so that just tells you that this is, something that's very personal.

It's it's neighbors.

It's it's our our our community.

And we feel like this is, folks are under siege right now, and it's it's not like the tornado two years ago.

This is, a manmade problem, and it can't be a manmade solution if our elected leaders will reopen the government.

Well, let's assume for a second that it is reopened this afternoon or, you know, tomorrow morning.

How fast can the program get back up and running?

Snap.

I've been told that it's still going to take a while for everything to get back online.

They're looking at possibly.

And they don't have an exact date of of, probably disbursing half of their Snap benefits.

If someone was making $500.

Well, getting $500 in Snap.

They will receive 250 if you have a family of five, that's not going to be a lot of money.

That's 250.

At that one time for the month of November, and hopefully to give the other half in December.

We have time at this time.

This is holiday season.

Children are going to be home.

When they're home, they eat more.

No mother's going to sit there and tell her young child, you have to stop eating.

So we have enough food for tomorrow.

And of course, the 5050 proposition is tied up in the administrative and even the legal, system as we, as we speak.

Brian, what are your thoughts on getting the system back up and running?

Assuming that there's a settlement?

Yeah.

Like Margaret said, I think it's going to take at least 2 or 3 weeks for funds to start flowing through the system into the empty carts.

And so we're looking at, you know, probably the even if it reopened like you said this afternoon, it would be, past Thanksgiving before things begin to stabilize.

And so we're really and, an uncharted territory here.

It's just it does, encourage me when I saw how many volunteers were at Helping Hands on Tuesday and people that had been volunteering there for 30 years.

And when I see the generosity of our neighbors, that's the silver lining.

Arkansans are generous people, and they have been flooding the food bank with with support.

We are so grateful.

But but like I said, we, we can only do so much, but we're doing everything we can with our 13 trucks and our partners and our 100,000 square foot, warehouse here on 65th Street.

So I'm just grateful we have partners like Margaret and a community like this one.

And, we will try to bounce back from this as best we can, but it definitely is causing a lot of pain right now.

Well, the state, the the the, Sanders administration, sent a half $1 million, I think, so far, fund to food banks across the state and, and indicated that there might be more forthcoming, could be more forthcoming.

Yeah.

To what extent is that going to alleviate or does that alleviate the crisis?

It it helps.

And we appreciate Governor Sanders.

She's been out here five times and she's been helpful with school breakfasts and school lunch.

That amount of money, was split among six food banks across the state.

And so we spent our allotment of that in about 2 or 3 hours.

And so we're hoping there'll be another, infusion next week.

I think they're making a decision about that in the next few days.

But obviously every little bit helps.

But we need to leverage, big resources.

I tell people that think the charitable system.

So just replace the government.

Remind them charity did not build the Hoover Dam or send a man to the moon.

And we can't replace snap.

We need the government to step in with, significant resources.

Brian Burton and Margaret, we will leave it right there.

Thanks.

And we thank you both for coming in and, and sharing your expertise with us, updating the situation.

Thank you very much.

Thank you.

And we'll be right back.

And we are back.

A lessening of trade tensions between the U.S.

and China and some other countries.

The details still are a bit sketchy.

And from experience, we know that tariff wars can begin and end and begin again with arresting speed.

There is the prospect of some near-term relief for Arkansas producers, especially soybean farmers.

But how much and how fast?

And will it be enough all up in the air?

Well, we're joined now by Doctor Ryan Loy of the UAS Agricultural Extension Service.

Doctor Loy, thanks for coming back with us.

Understanding that we are, in no place.

That's good.

Where are we?

Well, thank you so much for having me, Steve.

I really appreciate it.

And I think, you know, one of the things we're looking at here is that where it's a positive step in the right direction in terms of the agreements and China's commitments to purchase more U.S.

soybeans.

But one of the big things about it is, even with, you know, the short term impact being futures markets, you know, rising and, you know, having hitting the high points of the year right now, you know, we're in that post-harvest window and many farmers have already booked, you know, pre harvest and booked prices at that.

And so while there'll be some and you know, they'll, there will be a lot that can take advantage of these higher prices.

You still have a lot that had to accept the lower price because of what they had booked beforehand and sold before these agreements come.

So it's a great positive step in the right direction.

But, you know, I wish you would have came a little bit sooner.

In terms of those prices in the market, expectations and, you know, China's now committing to purchase 12 million metric tons of, US soybeans before January 2026 and committed to 25 million metric tons for the 27, 2027 through 2029 marketing years.

And so really, those are the big things that are coming out of this.

But as you mentioned, details are still a little bit fuzzy in terms of when something will be formally signed and agreed upon.

And those sorts of things, when it comes to those agreements.

Well, assuming that that deal for that the that the purchase agreements announced thus far hold and if there's not a reversal of that again, how does that compare to the normal, normal bulk of trade that occurs in beans between U.S.

and China?

Well, when we're looking at the last few years, this is right in line.

You know, little bit less, but about right in line with what China's been purchase purchasing with us from the first trade war and after the phase one deal.

So we're looking at kind of a return to just about the average, you know, and those are the kind of things we're looking at.

Looking at this, though, and so far, of course, we can't really get the data with the government shutdown right now, but, hearing reports that, China's bought few cargoes, you know, and so there's a lot to be purchased before the end of the year if they're going to follow through with 12 million metric tons.

That would basically set a record during that time of the year if they were to follow through on that.

And the question that I have, you know, when we're looking at these trade deals is, are these purchases being made in good faith and because of the agreement, or is that based on what's the economic most economical choice from China's perspective?

And even with this deal and with the reduction in tariffs coming from the steel as well, you know, we're still looking at Brazil being able to be more cost competitive on the marketplace and not just Brazil, you know, or South America as a whole.

Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay.

And so if we're looking at it from an economical perspective, I'm really curious to see, especially with, Brazilian soybeans coming online in terms of their harvest in January.

So there's a lot to be purchased still and still a lot of, you know, potential for those purchases.

Right.

Well, let's stay with that for just a second.

Now.

Harking back to the last days of the Carter administration and the wheat embargo against the Soviets, one of the effects of that was the loss of U.S.

markets.

And those markets haven't fully recovered.

How concerned should we be that we have permanently ceded some, ceded some of our our market territory to, to the southern hemisphere?

That's a really great question.

And I think that that's one that, you know, I think that the ship has sailed in terms of getting our entire market share back that we had may have had before the first trade war.

Like I said, this is a step in the in the right direction.

But for us, you know, China, you know, the entire world's, you know, imports of soybeans.

If the entire world imported soybeans, you know, that 61% of what China typically would import in terms of soybeans from all over.

And so that's a significant, significant market.

And so it's going to take, you know, a lot of time to diversify into other markets that we could get into that are other than China.

But in terms of regaining that market share, at the end of the day, there's a lot of politics involved, but it's really what's cost.

You know, what the cost effective for that importer and his story.

You know, in the last few years it's really been, South America being that cost competitive cheapest option for the soybean commodity.

And that's something that, hopefully this trade deal will alleviate and help, especially with the reduction of tariffs.

Well, to use your phrase, if the ship has in fact sailed the implications for Arkansas.

Well, for American farmers.

But Arkansas farmers in particular seem pretty profound.

Absolutely it is.

And, you know, you know, this is a positive, you know, agreement.

But farmers are still struggling, right?

Like I mentioned, a lot of them that booked at lower prices.

And even, you know, even with the upswing in prices as of late, since this agreement, we're still looking at, you know, losses per acre, for soybeans in terms of especially if you rent your land or you do a crop share, you know, those prices still have not recovered to that level.

And what, you know, we're looking at these prices, they may have been profitable 4 or 5 years ago, but those inputs to grow that crop have just stayed high and have not really come down since Covid and the Russian Ukraine war started.

And so it's still dire and it's going to take time to find those other markets.

And but at the end of the day, you know, farmers are resilient.

They're the best businessmen and women I've ever met.

And so they're going to get through this.

It's just going to take time and it will take a lot of effort on everybody's part, to get their.

Yeah.

Is there also the question, of of market saturation?

It would appear that there's, there's a market for just so many tons of soybeans and corn and wheat and other row crops.

That's correct.

And especially when you're looking at the supplies overall, I mean, we are our supply overall in the world is, you know, outpacing that demand at current levels.

You know, without on the US side, without some demand growth that's sustained.

It's going to be difficult to see how that demand can keep up with our supply in the short term.

You know, I think that in the long term, we're looking at, you know, crush expansion, you know, domestically to help with that, increase some of that domestic demand a little bit more.

And in the short term, you know, try to continue to utilize China and, you know, use this trade deal to kind of get that, get get the soybeans moving.

Some of the other factors in play, production costs.

We got maybe a little bit of a break.

It'll take time, maybe to filter down.

And that's some help from the fed.

But there's also diesel prices, seed prices.

So and so many other components of production, that are, pretty difficult right now to manage.

Yes, sir.

You know, when we're looking at, you know, fertilizer inputs, chemical inputs, you know, overall and on average, we really only import those fertilizers, right?

And so if we're importing those, if our inputs are imported and they've maintained being expensive and haven't really come down, add maybe tariffs on top of that as well.

You're looking at a very difficult situation that farmers are stuck in, you know, called, you know, kind of that cost price squeeze that we've seen, you know, they're just getting squeezed.

And even if there's an upside potential that prices, like I mentioned, you know, those prices are still not at levels where the typical Arkansas producer can profit off of it.

You know, they may be able to break even at some of these prices if they own the land.

But if they rent, you know, you're still looking at, you know, negative, returns on that acre.

And really, a lot of what we're looking at now is driven by that input side.

Well, again, your phrase too little, too late.

The agreements that were announced recently, the purchase agreements for those farmers, Arkansas farmers for whom it may be too little, too late.

How many are we talking about here?

What what's what's the scope of the losses?

Well, that's a great question.

I mean, we're looking at, you know, a significant loss, a very significant loss in terms of, you know, like I mentioned, the the farmers who had booked before, and, you know, booked on the futures market or just had a Ford contract at some set price before this agreement.

I mean, they're accepting a much lower price.

And maybe they can do that to some degree.

But most overall, on average cannot do that.

And so, we're looking at significant losses, but at the same time, you know, no, nobody wants just, the governmental help.

They'd rather run their business and be left alone.

But, you know, we've looked at with the one big, beautiful bill, there's been increases in that farm safety net.

And hopefully the goal is, is that that would kick in this year and really help people get through this time.

Nonetheless, are we looking at some producers who are simply going to hang it up, go out of business?

Oh, absolutely.

And, you know, it would be I couldn't I would speculation in terms of how many.

But you know, this is becoming untenable right.

And so you lose money in one year.

You know, maybe you have reserves that you can, you know, use and it'll get better the next year.

Right.

And maybe have some carryover, in your loans and things that you can work.

But when you have almost four years, you know, back to back to back of low commodity prices, high input cost and, you know, little to negative returns, it's going to become a time where where farmers just don't want to lose, just continue to lose money anymore and we'll hang it up.

And we've seen that in some preliminary data in terms of some of the chapter 12 filing, bankruptcy filings, and some of the chapter seven filings as well.

Yeah.

We've got a minute or so remaining.

How, how quickly can Washington act?

And will it act fast enough?

Well, I think that's the million dollar question, Steve.

And, you know, with the government shutdown, when we're we're looking at, let's say, for example, last year's farm safety nets, you know, payments were supposed to go out in October 1st.

But with the government shutdown, that that didn't happen.

Now, there's been some FSA offices, farm Service Agency offices that have opened up, to kind of, to make sure that that money gets released and into the hands of farmers.

But when we're looking at a government shutdown, you know, combined with a very, you know, severe and, you know, time that's very volatile, it's kind of a perfect storm in terms of what could happen to the farm economy.

And again, it's something that I know that, you know, resilient farmers that that that they are they will get through.

And we just have to continue to work to find other markets to fit the need.

And, you know, the government can help with that.

You know, and so those are the things that we're, we're looking at.

All right.

Doctor Ryan.

Laura, that does it for us for this edition.

But anyway, we'll have you back soon.

Update this, the ag economy situation in Arkansas and across the country.

Thanks again for joining us.

Thank you so much, Steve.

I really appreciate it.

All right.

And that does it for us for this week.

Thanks for joining us as always.

And we'll see you next week.