(bright tones resonating) (contemplative music) - [Tim] Welcome back.

The primary votes are all counted.

Now, what does this mean to you?

That's our lead story on this post-election correspondents edition of "Off the Record," with Chuck Stokes, Stella Yu, Jordyn Hermani, and Chad Livengood.

Sit in with us as we get the inside out off the record.

(bright tones resonating) - [Announcer] Production of "Off the Record" is made possible in part by Martin Waymire, a full-service strategic communications agency, partnering with clients through public relations, digital marketing, and public policy engagement.

Learn more at martinwaymire.com.

And now, this edition of "Off the Record with Tim Skubick."

- Thank you very much.

Welcome back to this busy end of the week.

We're tipping on Thursday afternoon.

The governor's race is now in the books.

We have two candidates.

Chuck, what do you make?

- I think it's going to be a humdinger of a race coming down the home stretch.

I think it's, on paper, it is the most interesting matchup.

It's a historic matchup.

First time, two women, they're running against each other head-to-head for governor of this state.

But I think once you get past the historical aspect, these are two very different women.

Their policies are different, their visions are different, and I think people are gonna notice that.

And then they're going to decide: which one do you like best?

- Before everybody else checks in, let's take a look at what happened at the unity meeting of the Republicans after Ms. Dixon got the nomination.

- Ladies and gentlemen, the next governor of the state of Michigan, Tudor Dixon.

(crowd applauding) - [Tim] The newest Republican nominee for governor is in the same spot that former candidate John Engler was 32 years ago.

He was the underdog running against the sitting governor, and the media then was saying.

- All of these cameras and the people watching said, "This guy can't win," and they're thinking the same thing, "Oh, there's no chance.

The incumbent is unbeatable.

You could never beat this strong incumbent."

- [Tim] Well, as you know, Mr. Engler beat incumbent Jim Blanchard, and he's hoping for a repeat of history for Ms. Dixon.

Billed as a unity event, Kevin Rinke was the only former candidate for governor from the Republican side who attended today's event.

Former candidate Ryan Kelly has not conceded and is demanding a recount even though Ms. Dixon won by 20 points.

Former candidate Garrett Soldano was not there, but he's endorsed Ms. Dixon, and candidate Ralph Rebandt was not an attendance either.

James Craig, John Engler's first choice for governor, he was a no-show too.

And while nobody expected the former president to be there, he is credited with handing Ms. Dixon the victory, but Mr. Trump, well, he did not get a shout out from her or any of the other speakers, but Ms. Dixon did mention the governor.

- We will remember what happened when our schools were shut down and our pleas as parents fell on deaf ears.

We will remember when the biggest industries in this state and the smallest said, "We have a state government that is working against us instead of with us."

And we will remember when Gretchen Whitmer came out and said that she supports the spirit of defund the police, and our crime rate skyrocketed.

- [Tim] So the stage is set, the first female-versus-female race for governor in state history.

- So hang on, we're in for a fun ride.

Thank you.

- So, Stella, what did you make of all this?

- I think, yeah, as Chuck mentioned, I mean, it's certainly interesting that for the first time in Michigan history, there are two female candidate head-to-head in November's election.

And for context, I mean, Michigan is one of six states that we'll see this sort of match up coming this year.

I think already you see sparks are flying, and, I mean, the role of gender really kind of is playing out in this election because Meshawn Maddock, for example, I mean, called Tudor Dixon a, quote, "younger, smarter, and hotter Gretchen Whitmer."

And so you see this sort of reflects a national trend where women candidates, more and more of them are making the ballot, but they're still facing more scrutiny compared to their male counterparts for their looks, for their qualifications, and things like that.

And so both are portraying themselves as working moms against each other, but, yeah, their positions are of polar opposites.

Obviously, we can expect Tudor Dixon to make more of a deal about Whitmer as what she calls birthing parent compared to herself as a conservative businesswoman, so we can see more, I guess, fights over abortion, which is gonna be a huge component that can impact voter turnout.

We can also expect more on economy, on roads infrastructure, and education.

- Well, to jump in for a second, too, I feel like this can't be overstated enough, that this is probably the best turnout for Republicans they could have hoped for out of all of the candidates because if you look at, obviously, the role that gender plays here, Dixon is afforded a unique perspective that somebody like a Ralph Rebandt or Kevin Rinke couldn't talk about, where when we look at abortion, for example, it's traditionally billed as a woman's rights issue, so Dixon is able to speak on it from the position of a woman, and it gives her the ability to not be shut down by Whitmer in a way that Kevin Rinke could.

For instance, if they're talking about abortion, Whitmer could say, "Well, you're not affected by this.

Why should we listen to you?"

whereas she can't do that with Dixon.

There's a number of gender-related issues that she doesn't have that ability or say, "Oh, this individual is mansplaining," or talking over me or something like that.

So it puts these candidates on an even playing field, that they have to now play to the things that voters care most about, which Stella pointed out: roads, abortion, inflation, all of your other issues of the day.

(chuckling) - [Tim] Mr. Livengood?

- To build on that, to go back to 2018 when Gretchen Whitmer would say that, "There goes Bill Schuette making sexist barbs again," and she doesn't have that shield now anymore in this race.

One thing I think that you've pointed out Tim in your piece that I think we cannot emphasize enough, Tudor Dixon said nothing of the words Donald Trump.

The Democrats wanna make this about Donald Trump, and you can guarantee that Donald Trump is gonna go quiet in this race, for at least that's what Republicans are gonna hope because they do not need more instances of Donald Trump making sexist barbs at Gretchen Whitmer, which he has done for years.

Go back to that woman from Michigan comment during the height of the coronavirus, shutdowns and such.

So there is gonna be a, there already is a pit away from Donald Trump.

Got his endorsement in.

He helped seal the deal to put Tudor Dixon not just over the top, gave her a big 18, 20 point win, and now it is a move on to subjects that they wanna talk about.

Inflation, the wanna talk about the lockdowns and re-litigate every aspect of the Whitmer coronavirus record, of which there is a very big record to litigate over.

And then on the Democratic side, you just saw with the Democratic Governors Association coming out, hitting hard on the issue of abortion.

It was so predictable that they were going to hit on this issue of whether minor children should be granted the ability to have, young girls be able to get an abortion if they are raped or impregnated by a family member.

We did polling, Detroit News, among Republican voters.

This polls at 75%.

Richard Zuba, renowned pollster, never seen anything like this.

I mean, with Republican voters telling the Republican candidates and telling also Senate majority leader Mike Shirkey and House Speaker Jason Wentworth, "We want an exception on this," it is gonna be very hard for them to ignore that.

The question now is, if the Republicans can muster together the votes, act like this month or early September is lame duck, get their lame ducks to vote for this, basically buck Right to Life of Michigan and put a bill in front of Gretchen Whitmer, will the governor sign a bill carving out an exception for rape and incest?

That would be quite a showdown.

- Chad, you bring up the point that the National Democratic Governors had the first commercial, and people at home are going, "Wait a minute.

There's 97 days before the election.

What in the world are they doing running a commercial two days after the game began?"

Here's the answer: this is about defining candidates.

Tudor Dixon is a blank slate with most of the voters in Michigan, and the DC, a great opportunity to define her before she gets a chance to do it.

Is that what's going on here?

- That's exactly what's going on, and that's why you saw tons of ads from Whitmer or on behalf of Whitmer in the primary when she didn't even have an opponent.

They wanted to make sure that she stayed visible even throughout the entire primary process, and then now they're gonna ramp it right up.

I told somebody it's sort of like Tudor Dixon was in like a Soap Box Derby where she's just now moved to the Indianapolis 500.

Buckle up.

This is gonna be a rough ride.

You've now moved to the big leagues, and there are going to be attacks on both sides of the fence.

But to Chad's point, it's gonna be interesting to see what type of campaign she runs.

Does she do like the governor of Virginia, Youngkin, in which he never said anything insulting or defensive about Donald Trump, the former president, but he made sure that he kept him out of Virginia when he was running, and so he could run, appeared as though he was running on his own.

Like me, vote for me, but don't vote for Donald Trump.

I'm not Donald Trump.

I'm my own governor.

I'm gonna be your own governor.

Does she take that same type of strategy?

I think she'll probably try that.

And how involved is the DeVos family?

How visible will they be throughout this process?

How much are they going to let Tudor Dixon be her own candidate?

'Cause we already know who Gretchen Whitmer is.

It's now time for Tudor Dixon to define herself for the voters.

- Well, and with Republicans, we're already starting to see that tight rope that Dixon needs to walk, emerge, between how closely does she keep herself with DeVos money, DeVos funding, backing, versus the midnight hour before the primary, she got this Trump endorsement.

So now it's harder for people to say, "Oh, you're an establishment candidate.

You are not what we want," when the former president has thrown his weight behind her.

And so, I mean, we are already starting to see this interesting sort of conundrum where you mentioned earlier Ryan Kelly has not conceded, but Garrett Soldano has and said, well, he's not going to openly campaign for her.

He believes that Republicans need to set their egos aside, coalesce behind Dixon because Republicans all have the same shared goal regardless of where they are on the conservative spectrum of unseating Whitmer come November.

And so it's gonna be really interesting, these next couple months, to see how the Dixon camp goes about threading that needle, about not saying anything, maybe like Chuck was saying, necessarily bad about the former president, running that Glenn Youngkin playbook, but also looking to enmesh herself a little bit more with grassroots, which I saw earlier this week was floated that maybe she might pick a more grassroots-esque lieutenant governor candidate.

I mean, that still remains to be seen.

- Well, the issue we're really talking about without saying it is the pivot, all right?

You could run on the far right in a Republican primary and would, in fact, you almost have to in order to win, but then, after this, more than Republicans will vote in November.

Does she have to pivot, move away from that far right, to get more towards the, quote, sensible center?

- Yeah, for sure.

So the GOP consultants I've talked to, I mean, they're saying this about Dixon, and they're also saying this about John Gibbs who upset Peter Meijer in a congressional race.

I mean, they're saying that from a money perspective, first of all, you're seeing Tudor Dixon raising 1.8 million as of Sunday, and then that is 6% of what Whitmer has taken in on her own.

And sure, Tudor Dixon has had the backing of the DeVos family.

She's taken in a lot of money from individual donors, from PACs, but she still needs money very, very badly.

And secondly, I mean, in terms of this position that she's taking, obviously she needs to court not just Republican voters, but some of the GOP consultants have said that she needs to get out of there and really court support from independents who haven't made up their minds and to talk about these kitchen table issues, as Whitmer has promised that she would do, to talk about inflation, to talk about gas, to talk about how unpopular President Joe Biden really is and try to tie Whitmer to that.

They're saying that this is the strategy that would help Tudor Dixon the most against Whitmer.

- Chad, how does she make that pivot or does she?

- I think she should take up residency in Northfield Township, in Wayne County.

She needs to go to the suburbs of Detroit and hang out and talk and relate and get known real quickly, 'cause she's still a major unknown in the Republican Party or outside of like the two million voters, well, not two million, but a million people who voted on on Tuesday.

She really just has no name ID in a lot of corners and go to where Gretchen Whitmer cleaned house in 2018, and that's basically from 7 Mile Road, Livonia, up to 16 Mile and north, or not much north of that, but basically that main suburban Southern Oakland County area where Republicans used to be king, and it used to run things.

This is where the Republicans are getting killed right now in statewide elections.

They just simply have lost touch with voters in this area, and then they've mostly lost touch with women voters, and not just, obviously, Democratic voters, but independent voter, independent women, and some Republican voters, Republican women, who when they go back to this polling data, Republican women, a majority of them believe there needs to be some exception for abortion in cases of protecting the mother's life and in cases of sexual abuse.

She's gonna have to find a way to appeal to these candidates.

If she's not gonna pivot, she's not gonna moderate on this subject, she's gonna have to find something else on their mind, and the economy is about all that's left.

- [Tim] But, Chad.

Go ahead, Charlie.

- Just piggyback off of what Chad said, which I think is so important.

She has to reach beyond, and I'm talking about Tudor Dixon, beyond her traditional base.

And think back.

John Engler and Rick Snyder were never afraid to come into Southeast Michigan and the city of Detroit and campaign.

They knew they weren't going to win the city of Detroit, but they won enough stuff so that their opponent, Democratic opponent, couldn't just wallop them in that particular area.

And they reached out and said, "Look, this is," they handled Detroit, especially with Snyder.

He said, "I've got a Detroit agenda.

This is how I'm gonna help the city come back."

- He sure did.

- He did.

But they campaigned on that, and they made alliances that they didn't have when they first started the race.

So I think Chad's point is very good.

How much does she come into the area and say, "This is the real Tudor Dixon.

I'm not just West Michigan tutor Dixon"?

- Well, then you think about it too, I mean, we had such a crowded primary.

Traditionally, we'll see the folks sort of split off.

We won't have this 10-person field that gets winnowed down to a five person field.

Dixon is really racing against the clock here.

She has not had the traditional amount of time that a candidate gets during the primary season to really establish themselves as a candidate.

So not only is she working to build, she needs to do what, obviously, Chuck and and Chad were talking about.

She also just needs to straight up build face ID with people, name ID with people, and that's gonna be a heck of an uphill climb for her.

It really is.

- That's why these commercials are so important right now.

By the time she gets finds a home to rent in Northfield Township, the game may be over image wise, Chad.

- Yeah, it is.

And the other thing you already heard from her, and you will hear this from the governor as well, is this emphasis on moms with kids.

- Yes.

- And there, you go across the spectrum, there are parents who have seen their children suffer academically, socially, mentally because of the pandemic, because of the isolation, and there's all these tens of millions of dollars being poured into efforts to try to help kids get back up to speed.

The governor's been out emphasizing it at every corner, "Hey, we're doing things.

We're trying things."

Remember, go back to the fight over last school year, where the governor came in and was like hands off.

"I'm not making the decision on schools being closed.

It's up to you."

And then we had some select areas of the state, Ann Arbor, Kalamazoo, Grand Rapids, the Grosse Pointes.

So they had whole kinds of different variety of in person, hybrid policies, remote.

This has been used by Republicans to galvanize this issue and try to basically blame it all on Gretchen Whitmer.

The governor has her defense, but she's gonna have to articulate that as part of the sort of post-pandemic, war over pandemic issues, but you can see where Tudor Dixon's got an opening here, and she's going to try to use it to win votes in the suburbs.

This is where the fight will be, and that's why (indistinct)- - The governor- - Was the place to go.

- Excuse me, Chad.

The governor's sensitivity on this issue is seen in one of her commercials where there's big letters that say 98% of the schools reopened.

Now the impression that you get, wait a sec.

- It's not a mistake.

The impression that you get from that is that the governor reopened the schools.

Did the governor reopen the schools?

- No.

- No, she didn't.

- She punches school boards.

- She encouraged them.

But that doesn't say that, okay?

This could be an opening.

Stella, did you have a comment there?

- No.

Yeah.

- And the kids and family.

This is Ms. Dixon's going after that.

The governor says, "Look, I'm a proud mom.

I got two kids.

Actually, I got three step kids, the whole nine yards."

- Yeah, for sure, and I think, I mean, this whole fight, a large part of that or a large chunk of that, is going to be, you know, angry parents are saying, "We've had enough."

And I mean, that's the narrative that Republicans have pretty much been playing.

That kind of played out in Ottawa County too, like in West Michigan, where angry parents run by a local pack kind of upset, I mean, eight of nine candidates in Ottawa County successfully won the county commissioners race by a landslide.

So you see, it does have a lot of momentum, but the GOP strategists I've talked to are saying Tudor Dixon should definitely cash in on this wave of angry parents and try to attack Whitmer on that front, the pandemic lockdown and stuff.

But at the same time, she needs to go beyond that and kind of establish herself as a viable alternative to Whitmer.

What's she gonna do when maybe the next pandemic, epidemic hits?

What's she gonna do about- - Let's see what the governor was up to this week as she met with her campaign folks in Lansing the day of the election before the candidate was known, her opponent.

Please.

- [Reporter] What do you know about Tudor Dixon?

- I think same as everyone, not a whole lot.

You've got culture warriors and you got someone who's a problem solver, and that's how I've always operated, and that's how I'll continue to.

- [Tim] As she has done throughout the whole Republican campaign, the governor has not said much about the field, but now she describes the opposition as extreme.

Get used to that.

It's going to be one of her themes against her opponent.

- This is an extreme group that's running radicalized by the last presidency.

No matter who comes outta that primary, we're gonna have someone who is an election denier, who doesn't believe in any efforts to keep kids more safe in school, who doesn't embrace protecting women's reproductive rights.

- [Tim] It would mark the first time in state history that two women have run for governor.

The governor took this innocent question about that and flipped it into an analysis of Ms. Dixon, without naming names.

Didn't we end up with two women running against each other?

Is that good for the women's movement?

- I think what is good for the women's movement is having candidates who are fighting for women's rights.

- Since women are expected to play a dominant role in the outcome of the upcoming campaign, you'll be hearing that theme as well, over and over again.

That's basically what is coming down to, Chuck.

- Yeah, you're absolutely right.

We're gonna see some real differences between these two candidates.

And I think one issue will be education.

They're very different education.

Whitmer is going to remind folks that schools got more money under her administration than any past gubernatorial administration, and she's gonna have a lot of allies on the education front, especially on the public education side, saying, "That's absolutely right.

We feel comfortable with her," as well as even higher education.

You won't find too many college presidents around here badmouthing Governor Whitmer.

But on the other end, where is Tudor Dixon gonna be on issues like vouchers, with the DeVos family?

- She's all in.

- That's right.

- She has no choice.

- Absolutely, so she's gotten a lot of support, a lot of money from the DeVos family.

We know that that has been their issue.

And they're gonna point out these are real key differences.

What kind of education governor do you want?

And this is gonna be one of the defining issues as well as infrastructure and all the other issues that everybody's articulated.

- Quickly.

Mr. Trump obviously had a win with Ms. Dixon getting the nomination that he got.

Went four for four in the Michigan House.

He had four people that he wanted really in who didn't get in.

So it's a mixed bag for Mr. Trump in Michigan?

- It is, yeah.

So we saw four.

There were nine overall individuals who did get his endorsement, couple in the Senate, couple in the House.

Like you said, four did end up progressing, one of whom was Representative Matt Maddock.

I mean, he was running on a post, so I'm not necessarily sure that counts, but, I mean, it is showing this idea that Trump's endorsement is maybe not as effective in these local races as we're pointing to in the gubernatorial race.

I mean, you have to think about the fact, obviously, you have a local race.

You have smaller voting base, you have a smaller amount of people who are gonna turn out, show up, stuff like that, but, I mean, by and large, those who did get Trump's endorsement, who did move on to the November election, they were not as out there, for lack of a better word, as those who did not progress.

I mean, I'm thinking of, there was Jacky Eubanks in the 63rd House District.

A lot of people might be familiar with that name because she was one of the individuals running with Trump's endorsement, who claimed that she wanted to, if elected, ban contraceptives outright, ban condoms outright, no exception for rape, incest, life for the mother in abortion.

And like we've pointed out throughout this program so far, those aren't things that really track with voters.

So I mean the Trump endorsement, I believe, does offer some power.

I mean, we saw there was an individual Jonathan Lindsey in the 17th Senate District.

He unseated an incumbent Republican sitting senator, which I believe according to MIRS, the Capital News Service, was the first time since 1986, I believe, that that has occurred, which is astonishing to think.

So I mean, you show that this endorsement does have some power, but it also does come back to, who is the candidate?

What is their platform that they're running on?

Because you can tout this endorsement all you like, but if you aren't willing to put up for what voters believe in, what people in your jurisdiction want, it's as good as no endorsement at all.

- I'm just thinking here, interesting parallel between the two candidates for governor.

Does the governor invite Joe Biden to campaign?

Does Tudor Dixon invite Donald Trump to campaign, or does she tell the both of them to get together and go to Ohio?

- No, no.

I do not think the president will be in Michigan campaigning for Gretchen Whitmer, and I do not think Donald Trump will be, although, here's the Trump factor to sort of watch.

Does John James bring Trump in to help him try to win a congressional seat based mostly in Trump country of Macomb County?

And does John Gibbs try to bring Trump into West Michigan in his race against Hillary Scholten, the Democrat, after John Gibbs just use that Trump endorsement to knock Peter Meijer outta Congress after one term in that Republican primary.

That will be one to watch.

I mean, we talk about Trump's wins, getting rid of Meijer was revenge for Trump for Meijer voting to impeach him on his 10th day in office for Trump inciting the riot on January 6th.

But yeah, overall, Trump had five losses and nine wins in his endorsed candidates in the state legislature.

That Jonathan Lindsey, a candidate down in Southwest Michigan, can't underemphasize the fact that he just took out a sitting Republican senator, Kim LaSata, but then it didn't work.

And in Livingston County, where I live, but the- - Thanks, Chad.

- Incumbent, Lana Theis- - Say goodnight, Chad.

(panel laughing) - I'm on it, yeah.

- Believe it or not, believe it or not- - Music from the Oscars.

- His photo's going bye.

Amazing.

More stuff on what's happening in Michigan politics right here next week on "Off the Record."

Thank you, guys.

Great show.

See you next week, folks.

- [Announcer] Production of "Off the Record" is made possible in part by Martin Waymire, a full-service strategic communications agency, partnering with clients through public relations, digital marketing, and public policy engagement.

Learn more at martinwaymire.com.

For more "Off the Record," visit wkar.org.

Michigan public television stations have contributed to the production costs of "Off the Record."

(contemplative music) (bright tones resonating) (light tones resonating)