>> WELCOME BACK.

OUR GUEST ON OTR IS MICHIGAN POLLSTER STEVE MITCHELL.

OUR LEAD STORY AND UPDATE ON COVID AND THE VACCINE.

ON THE OTR PANEL, ZACHARY, NANCY AND JONATHAN.

SIT IN WITH US AS WE GET THE INSIDE OUT, "OFF THE RECORD."

ANNOUNCER: PRODUCTION OF "OFF THE RECORD" IS MADE POSSIBLE IN PART BY THE FOLLOWING -- AND NOW, THIS EDITION OF "OFF THE RECORD" WITH TIM SKUBICK.

>> WELCOME BACK TO "OFF THE RECORD."

YEAH, I KNOW, I TOLD YOU LAST WEEK I'D HAVE REPORTERS AROUND THE TABLE AND HERE'S THE FIRST RULE OF JOURNALISM.

DON'T TRUST A REPORTER.

THE UNIVERSITY CAME UP WITH NEW REGULATIONS SO EVERYBODY IS SUPPOSED TO BE MASKING UP.

WE GOT SPECIAL PERMISSION TO GET RID OF MY MASK.

ENOUGH WITH THAT.

OUR PANEL, JONATHAN AND ZACHARY AND NANCY, NICE TO HAVE YOU ON BOARD.

START WITH YOU ON THE COVID FRONT, WHERE ARE WE?

WINNING OR LOSING?

>> I THINK WE'RE AT A STANDSTILL RIGHT NOW.

WE NEED MORE PEOPLE TO GET THE VACCINE.

THAT'S ALL THERE IS TO IT, AND WE CAN IMPLEMENT MASK MANDATES AND DO NONPHARMACEUTICAL INTERVENTIONS BUT WE HAVE VACCINES AND PEOPLE NEED TO GET THEM.

THAT'S THE MOST EFFECTIVE WAY TO GET RID OF THE VIRUS.

>> JONATHAN, YOU DID AN EXTENSIVE PROGRAM ON GETTING PEOPLE TO ROLL UP THEIR SLEEVES, HOW DID THAT WORK OR NOT?

>> NOT AS WELL AS THEY HOPED FOR.

CERTAINLY THE VACCINATION RATE INCREASED BY ABOUT 2% AMONGST MICHIGANDERS 16 AND OLDER.

THE STATE HAS LONG SOUGHT TO REACH 70% VACCINATION RATE, AND DIDN'T REALLY MOVE THE NEEDLE TOO MUCH OVER THE LAST MUCH DURING THE $5 MILLION VACCINE LOTTERY.

THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OVER THE FINAL THREE WEEKS OF THE MONTH THAT VACCINATION RATES AT LEAST INCREASED WEEK OVER WEEK, BUT IT'S IMPORTANT TO KNOW THEY STARTED ABYSMALLY LOW STARTING IN JULY, LINKED TO THE 4th OF JULY HOLIDAY.

THEY WERE REALLY DOWN THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY.

THERE WAS NOWHERE TO GO BUT UP.

BUT YEAH, THERE'S A HUGE PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION THAT WE KNOW, NOT A HUGE PERCENT BUT A PORTION OF THE POPULATION IS NOT GOING TO GET THE VACCINE, NO MATTER WHAT.

THERE ARE OTHERS WHO MAYBE ARE STILL PERSUADABLE BUT HARD TO REACH, SO PUBLIC HEALTH OFFICIALS ARE GOING OUT INTO NEIGHBORHOOD MEETINGS.

THEY'RE BRINGING VACCINES WITH THEM TO BLOCK PARTIES AND THINGS LIKE THAT TO TRY AND GET RELUCTANT RESIDENTS TO FINALLY TAKE THE SHOT, BUT WHAT WE HAVE SEEN, WHERE VACCINATION RATES ARE RISING THE MOST IS IN THE SOUTH AND A COUPLE WESTERN STATES WHERE COVID IS RUNNING RAMPANT AGAIN.

FEAR DOES SEEM TO BE ONE OF THE STRONGEST MOTIVATING FACTORS HERE AND MICHIGAN'S RATE IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME OTHER STATES AND RELUCTANT FOLKS DON'T FEEL THE SAME INCENTIVE, EVEN IF $5 MILLION IS ON THE LINE.

>> SOMEBODY TOLD ME THE NUMBER IS 20% REGARDLESS WHAT YOU DID, IF YOU OFFERED THEM A MILLION DOLLARS OR $3 MILLION IT WOULDN'T MAKE A DIFFERENCE, THEY'RE HARD CORE.

ZACH, CAN WE CONNECT A DOT TO THE GOVERNOR'S LOTTERY PROGRAM TO INCREASE VACCINATIONS OR IS THAT ILLUSIONARY?

I'M NOT SURE THE DOTS GET ALL THE WAY OVER THERE, DO THEY?

>> EVIDENTLY NOT BECAUSE WE SAW THIS WITH OHIO.

THE FIRST STATE OUT OF THE GATE WITH THE LOTTERY SYSTEM.

>> YES.

>> AND IT JUST -- IT REALLY DID SOUND, YOU KNOW, INTRIGUING AND PROMISING, CREATIVE IDEA.

JUST LIKE JONATHAN SAID, IT HASN'T SEEMED TO MOVE THE NEEDLE.

THIS IS NO LONGER A VACCINE HESITANT POPULATION, THIS IS A VACCINE REFUSING POPULATION THAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT NOW AT THIS POINT.

THERE IS A WEALTH AND ABUNDANCE OF VACCINES AVAILABLE.

I THINK EVERYBODY KNOWS IT'S OUT THERE.

IT'S SIMPLY, ARE YOU WILLING TO TAKE THE VACCINE OR NOT, AND IT DOESN'T SEEM LIKE THE LOTTERY IS GOING TO GET IT DONE.

MAYBE IT TAKES MORE OF AN AUTOMATIC INCENTIVE, LIKE A CHILD TAX CREDIT.

I DON'T KNOW.

SOMETHING IS GOING TO HAVE TO HAPPEN BECAUSE RIGHT NOW, MICHIGAN'S COVID CASE RATE HAS INCREASED SIX-FOLD SINCE IT BOTTOMED OUT AT THE END OF JUNE AND WE HAVEN'T REALLY SEEN THE DELTA VARIANT HIT MICHIGAN YET.

THIS IS STILL PRIMARILY THE U.K.

VARIANT THAT'S BEEN AROUND FOR MANY, MANY, MANY MONTHS NOW THAT IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF COVID IN MICHIGAN, AND THE DELTA VARIANT, AS HAS BEEN SAID HERE IS RUNNING RAMPANT THROUGH THE STATES WITH MUCH LOWER VACCINATION RATES THAN MICHIGAN, AND IT'S JUST A MATTER OF TIME.

WE'RE ALMOST ON THE EXACT SAME TRAJECTORY AS LAST SUMMER IF YOU LOOK AT THE SEVEN-DAY CASE AVERAGE, EERILY IDENTICAL.

IT'S A MATTER OF TIME UNTIL WE GET TO THE FALL, THE TEMPERATURES FALL, PEOPLE START GOING INDOORS AND WE'RE PROBABLY GOING TO HAVE A HUGE SURGE IN CASES, HOSPITALIZATIONS ARE UP AGAIN, AND IT JUST SEEMS LIKE THE SAME OLD BROKEN RECORD, AND UNTIL, YOU KNOW, PEOPLE START TREATING THIS LIKE THEY TREAT THE MEASLES, MUMPS, RUBELLA AND OTHER VACCINES WE'RE ALL ACCUSTOMED TO HAVING, WE'RE GOING TO BE LIVING WITH THIS FOR A LONG TIME.

>> PUT THE DELTA VARIANT IN PERSPECTIVE.

WE'VE GOT 10 MILLION PEOPLE, WE HAVE AT LATEST COUNT, 233 CASES, WHICH IS NOT AN EPIDEMIC BY ANY STRETCH OF THE IMAGINATION AND MOST OF THE CASES ARE FOCUSED IN THE LARGER POPULATION AREAS IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

ALTHOUGH OUT STATE COUNTIES HAVE THE VARIANT THEY'RE WORKING WITH.

IT CLEARLY IS A TICKING TIME BOMB.

ALSO BOSTON COLLEGE WENT INTO OHIO MUCH TO THE CHAGRIN OF THE GOVERNOR AND DID A STUDY ON THE LOTTERY AND FOUND IT DID NOT INCREASE SALES, IT SLOWED THE RATE OF PEOPLE NOT GETTING SHOTS, WHICH IS ANOTHER WAY OF SAYING, YES, MORE SHOTS WERE GIVEN, BUT THE STUDY POINTS OUT AND I THINK CORRECTLY SO, JUST BEFORE THE LOTTERIES WERE ANNOUNCED, THE CDC OPENED THE WHOLE WORLD TO ANYBODY AND HIS UNCLE OVER THE AGE OF 12 TO GET SHOTS AND THAT MAY HAVE BEEN MORE OF WHAT WAS DRIVING THE NEW NUMBERS.

NANCY, LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT SCHOOL SITUATION.

THEY ARE TELLING US, THEY ARE TELLING US THIS READ AS WE GO INTO AUGUST, SCHOOLS WILL OPEN IN THE FALL.

DO YOU BELIEVE THEM OR NOT?

>> I REALLY HOPE SO, BUT I'VE BEEN HAVING SOME DEJA VU AS ZACH WAS DESCRIBING LOOKING AT THIS AUGUST AND LAST AUGUST, STARTING TO FEEL VERY SIMILAR.

LAST AUGUST AROUND THIS TIME, WE WERE LOOKING TO IN-PERSON OR HYBRID SCHOOL OPTIONS AND MY SCHOOL DISTRICT AND A NUMBER OF OTHERS SORT OF ABRUPTLY DROPPED THOSE PLANS AND MOVED TO A FULL VIRTUAL MODEL, WHICH WAS A DISASTER.

IT DOESN'T WORK FOR MOST KIDS.

KIDS SPENT 18 MONTHS CUT OFF FROM THEIR PEERS, CUT OFF FROM MEANINGFUL EDUCATION, AND IT'S CLEARLY NOT EVERY DISTRICT HAS DONE THAT, SOME DISTRICTS HAVE OFFERED FACE-TO-FACE LEARNING, SO THE BIGGEST IMPACT IS CENTERED ON THE KIDS WHO ARE MOST VULNERABLE, AND MY KID, AND IT'S SOMETHING WE REALLY HAVE TO -- IT'S HARD, IT'S HARD TO SAY THERE'S RISKS AND WE'RE GOING TO SEND KIDS TO SCHOOL, BUT LIKE ZACH WAS SAYING, HE MEANT IT IN A DIFFERENT WAY, PEOPLE AREN'T GOING TO GET VACCINATED, THIS ISN'T GOING TO GO AWAY.

WE HAVE TO LEARN TO LIVE WITH IT.

WE CAN'T BE IN CRISIS MODE FOR TWO, THREE, FIVE YEARS.

WE HAVE TO MANAGE IT.

PEOPLE ARE VACCINATED BUT NOT ENOUGH, WE KNOW ABOUT MASKS AND SOCIAL DISTANCING, KEEPING KIDS IN COHORTS, SCHOOLS HAVE NOT BEEN THE OUTBREAK CENTERS THAT SOME FEARED, WE HAVE TO BE SMART WITH WHAT WE'VE LEARNED IN THE LAST 18 MONTHS AND FIGURE OUT HOW TO GET KIDS IN SCHOOL, IN MY OPINION.

I'M SO WORRIED WE'RE GOING TO GO A DIFFERENT DIRECTION, THOUGH.

WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON IT, ZACHARY?

>> I'M A PARENT OF A HIGH SCHOOLER AND MIDDLE SCHOOLER AND SECOND NANCY SAYING VIRTUAL EDUCATION WAS A DISASTER.

FORTUNATELY EAST LANSING SCHOOLS DID THEIR BEST, THEY DID COME BACK TO A HYBRID SYSTEM BY THE SPRING OF LAST YEAR, SO THAT WAS A POSITIVE.

BUT THEY'RE EVALUATING THINGS ALL THE TIME.

WE JUST GOT A NOTE THAT INITIALLY THE PLAN WAS NO MASKS AT THE HIGH SCHOOL AND NOW THERE'S GOING TO BE MASKS AT THE HIGH SCHOOL GIVEN WHAT'S GOING ON WITH THE DELTA VARIANT AND THE INCREASING CASE RATES.

SO WE'RE HOLDING OUR BREATH, HOPING THAT EVERYTHING, WE CAN HAVE A NORMAL SCHEDULE, 8:30 TO 2:30, NOT 11:00 TO 3:00, THE CASE IN THE SPRING OF LAST YEAR.

AND I'LL SAY, IF THE SCHOOLS -- THERE'S NO INDICATION THAT SCHOOLS ARE GOING TO GO VIRTUAL.

SEEMS LIKE THEY'RE ALL STEAM AHEAD ON IN-PERSON.

BUT IF THEY WERE TO GO TO SOME MASS VIRTUAL SITUATION, THERE WILL BE A LOT OF QUESTIONS ANSWERED.

THE SCHOOL DISTRICTS JUST GOT AN AVALANCHE OF MONEY FROM THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT TO PAY FOR, TO HANDLE THESE KINDS OF COSTS, YOU KNOW, TO TRY TO DO SAFE IN-PERSON LEARNING.

SO THERE WOULD BE, I THINK, A VERY SIGNIFICANT BACKLASH, AT MINIMUM, SERIOUS QUESTIONS ASKED, AS TO WHAT THE MONEY IS FOR IF NOT TO DO THE KINDS OF SAFEGUARDS THAT ARE POSSIBLE.

IN EAST LANSING, THEY HAD PLEXIGLASS BASICALLY SURROUNDING EACH STUDENT LAST YEAR, WHICH WAS A GOOD SAFETY MEASURE, CERTAINLY DRAMATIC.

THAT'S THE KIND OF THING THIS MONEY IS FOR.

SO FINGERS CROSSED, HOPING THAT IT CAN HAPPEN.

>> WELL, I SPOKE TO THE GUY WHO RUNS THE SCHOOL BOARD ASSOCIATION, AND HE SAID BASICALLY THE SCHOOLS ARE STILL GOING TO HAVE AN OPTION FOR PARENTS WITH KIDS WHO MIGHT BE UNCOMFORTABLE, BUT EVERYBODY I TALKED TO, ALL THE DISTRICTS PLAN TO START IN THE FALL.

THE QUESTION MARK IS WHAT ARE THE NUMBERS AND DOES IT GET WORSE OR BETTER?

JONATHAN, LET ME SHARE AS WE WATCH THE GOVERNOR NOW, WHO IS JUST DEAD SET AGAINST ANYTHING THAT CRAWLS AND LOOKS LIKE A MANDATE TO UNDERSCORE, THE MICHIGAN STATE POLICE IN THEIR JOB APPLICATION FOR TROOPERS TO COME IN HAD A MANDATORY SHOT PROGRAM.

WHEN THE GOVERNOR'S OFFICE FOUND OUT ABOUT THIS, LET'S JUST SAY THEY WERE NOT VERY HAPPY, AND SO THE WORD WENT OUT TO THE STATE POLICE, YOU ALL BETTER TAKE THAT OUT OF THE JOB APPLICATION, AND LIKE THAT.

THE STATE POLICE MADE A GOOD CASE, IF YOU'RE A STATE TROOPER, YOU CANNOT SOCIAL DISTANCE SOMEBODY YOU PULLED OVER ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE ROAD, OTHERWISE YOU ARE STANDING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FREEWAY.

THE IDEA GIVING SHOTS TO TROOPERS MADE SENSE, BUT OBVIOUSLY, JONATHAN, NOT TO THE GOVERNOR.

>> YOU'RE RIGHT.

THE GOVERNOR HAS FACED CRITICISM EARLY IN THE PANDEMIC FOR SOME OF THE HEAVY-HANDED MEASURES THAT WERE IMPOSED BY THE STATE AND NOW REVERSED COURSE AND IS STEADFASTLY AGAINST ANY MANDATES, AND WE KNOW, FOR INSTANCE, THAT SHE HAS SAID PUBLICLY THAT THE STATE WILL NOT BE REQUIRING VACCINES FOR STATE EMPLOYEES, WHICH IS SOMETHING THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT IS DOING IN PRESIDENT BIDEN.

SO THE STATE POLICE, MOVING FORWARD WITH THAT POLICY, WAS SORT OF ADD-ON, THE PUBLIC COMMENTS GOVERNOR WHITMER MADE.

IT MAKES SENSE THEY WANT TO BE ON THE SAME PAGE.

THAT EXTENDS TO SCHOOLS AS WELL.

WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT MASKING POLICIES.

THE STATE THIS WEEK RECOMMENDED THAT SCHOOLS FOLLOW CDC GUIDANCE AND REQUIRE MASK USE, BUT THEY DID NOT MANDATE IT.

THEY SAID IT'S ONE OF THE STRONGEST MITIGATION MEASURES, I THINK THEY CALLED IT CRITICAL OR SOMETHING ALONG THOSE LINES BUT NOT REQUIRE IT AT SCHOOL DISTRICTS.

SO WE'RE SEEING THE ADMINISTRATION SORT OF BACK OFF THE HEAVY-HANDED APPROACH AND LEAVE IT UP TO THE LOCALS, BUT THAT'S CREATING CONSTERNATION AT THE LOCAL LEVEL AS WELL.

NOW IT'S NO LONGER THE GOVERNOR WHO'S GOING TO FACE CRITICISM FROM PARENTS WHO DON'T LIKE THE ORDERS.

IT'S LOCAL SCHOOL BOARD, THE LOCAL SCHOOL ADMINISTRATORS.

SO YOU KNOW, THE GOVERNOR HAS TAKEN A 180-DEGREE TURN HERE AND A LOT OF PEOPLE WOULD ARGUE IT'S ELECTION YEAR POLITICS.

OTHERS WOULD ARGUE, THE GOVERNOR, LIKE NANCY WAS SAYING, WE CAN'T LIVE IN A PERPETUAL STATE OF REALLY HEAVY-HANDED MANDATES.

>> WELL, THAT -- >> GO AHEAD, GO AHEAD.

>> I'M SORRY, TIM.

WITH SCHOOLS WITH REGARDS TO SCHOOLS ONLY, THAT IS CONSISTENT WITH HER APPROACH THROUGHOUT THE PANDEMIC.

LAST YEAR SCHOOL DISTRICTS WERE LOOKING FOR SPECIFIC GUIDANCE ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT THEY SHOULD REOPEN, AND INSTEAD, THERE WAS PUBLISHED THIS PLAN THAT WAS LIKE IF YOU ARE GOING TO REOPEN AND YOU CAN IF YOU'RE IN THIS REGION, YOU SHOULD DO THESE THINGS.

WHEREAS THAT MAKES SENSE IF YOU ARE DR. VIDI AND YOU RUN A MIDSIZED TO LARGE CORPORATION.

IF YOU'RE THE SUPERINTENDENT IN GARDEN CITY OR WESTLAND AND RUNNING A MOM-AND-POP SHOP, YOU'RE NOT NECESSARILY SOMEONE WHO SIGNED UP TO MAKE LIFE AND DEATH DECISIONS AND NEED SOME -- NOT TO PICK ON THOSE GUYS SPECIFICALLY.

IF YOU'RE THE HEAD OF A MUCH SMALLER DISTRICT, YOU MAY NOT BE COMFORTABLE MAKING THAT TYPE OF DECISION, AND THE SMALL DISTRICTS NEEDED A LOT OF GUIDANCE FROM THE STATE THAT THEY DIDN'T GET.

SHE DID KIND OF PUNT TO THE LEGISLATURE WHICH PUNTED BACK TO WHATEVER, AND THEY ALL PUNTED, LANSING PUNTED, IT WAS A BIG PUNTING THING.

AND SMALL SCHOOL DISTRICTS, AGAIN, HAD TO WADE THROUGH THIS ON THEIR OWN WITH GUIDANCE FROM THE ISD'S AND HAD THE CRAZY PATCHWORK OF COMPLETELY INCONSISTENT PROGRAMS.

PEOPLE WHO HAD VIRTUAL PROGRAMS, THERE WERE NO TWO PROGRAMS ALIKE.

LIKE ZACH SAID, 11:00 TO 3:00.

MY KID WAS IN FRONT OF THE COMPUTER FOR EIGHT HOURS A DAY, FIVE DAYS A WEEK, SHE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THROUGH THE WHOLE TIME.

>> THE GOVERNOR HAS PERFECT POLITICAL COVER, TWO WORDS, LOCAL CONTROL.

LOCALS, YOU WANT TO RUN YOUR OWN SHOP, BE MY GUEST, SORT OF THING.

SPEAKING OF GUESTS, WATCH THIS FOR A SEGUE.

CALL IN OUR GUEST TODAY, STEVE MITCHELL, NOTED POLLSTER FROM MICHIGAN.

NICE TO HAVE YOU ON THE BROADCAST.

HOW YOU DOING DOWN THERE?

>> I'M DOING TERRIFIC.

ALWAYS GREAT TO BE WITH YOU AND YOUR GANG THIS MORNING.

>> MR. MITCHELL, QUICK QUESTION, IF YOU'RE A REPUBLICAN RUNNING FOR GOVERNOR, DO YOU WANT DONALD TRUMP'S ENDORSEMENT IN THE PRIMARY AND TELL HIM TO TAKE A HIKE FOR THE GENERAL?

>> YOU WANT HIS ENDORSEMENT IN THE PRIMARY AND YOU WANT HIS ENDORSEMENT IN THE GENERAL ELECTION AS WELL.

>> SO IN OTHER WORDS, YOU WANT TO LOSE?

>> NOPE, THAT'S THE IN THE CASE.

I DON'T BELIEVE THAT'S THE CASE AT ALL.

AS A MATTER OF FACT, QUINNIPIAC CAME OUT WITH A POLL YESTERDAY SHOWING NATIONALLY 41% WILL NOT VOTE FOR A CANDIDATE ENDORSED BY DONALD TRUMP, BUT THAT'S THE BASE OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY, ABOUT 40%.

ANOTHER 56% EITHER DON'T CARE OR WOULD BE HAPPY WITH THAT SORT OF ENDORSEMENT.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS IF YOU WANT TO WIN A PRIMARY, HAVING THE FACT THAT DONALD TRUMP ENDORSES YOU IS ENORMOUSLY IMPORTANT.

THE FACT THAT YOU SUPPORT DONALD TRUMP IN A PRIMARY IS CRITICAL.

TAKE A LOOK AT TWO SENATE RACES THAT OCCURRED LAST TUESDAY HERE IN MICHIGAN.

IN THOSE TWO RACES, AND I DID SOME POLLING JUST BECAUSE I OWN A POLLING COMPANY AND CAN TAKE A LOOK AT RACES LIKE THAT, DONALD TRUMP WAS ENORMOUSLY POPULAR IN A REPUBLICAN PRIMARY.

THE VOTERS, TWO-THIRDS OF THEM WOULD BE MUCH MORE LIKELY TO VOTE FOR A CANDIDATE THAT SUPPORTED DONALD TRUMP.

ANOTHER 20% SAID THAT THEY WOULD BE A LITTLE MORE LIKELY TO VOTE FOR A CANDIDATE SUPPORTED BY TRUMP.

THIS IS DONALD TRUMP'S PARTY.

>> IF THIS IS SUCH A HOT SHOT IDEA, HOW COME BILL SCHUETTE IS NOT GOVERNOR.

>> BILL SCHUETTE WAS RUNNING AGAINST PROBLEMS IN 2018, THIS IS NOT 2018, THIS IS 2022.

THAT'S WHY.

THERE WERE A LOT OF OTHER REASONS WHY AS WELL.

DONALD TRUMP WAS PRESIDENT AT THAT TIME.

HE'S NO LONGER PRESIDENT.

DONALD TRUMP HAD THE ABILITY TO TWEET AND USE FACEBOOK.

HE NO LONGER HAS THAT.

PROBABLY THE BEST FAVOR THE BIG TECH COMPANIES COULD HAVE DONE IS TAKE AWAY HIS TWITTER AND FACEBOOK ACCOUNT.

THAT'S WHY BILL SCHUETTE LOST.

>> JONATHAN?

>> STEVE, YOU KNOW, ON THIS TOPIC OF PRESIDENT TRUMP, HE SPENT A LOT OF TIME UNDERMINING THE CREDIBILITY OF THE 2020 ELECTION, AND SOME OF HIS ARDENT SUPPORTERS TOLD ME THEY DON'T TRUST ELECTIONS AND MAY NOT VOTE AT ALL IN 2024.

HOW BIG OF A PROBLEM IS THAT FOR THE REPUBLICAN PARTY HEADING INTO A PRETTY BIG ELECTION YEAR?

>> THERE'S NO DOUBT THAT HE HAS REALLY UNDERMINED THE FACT THAT THE PEOPLE DON'T HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THE ELECTORAL PROCESS.

I THINK THAT'S UNFORTUNATE.

I CAN'T SPEAK FOR ARIZONA OR WISCONSIN OR PENNSYLVANIA OR GEORGIA.

I CAN SPEAK FOR MICHIGAN.

I'VE BEEN STUDYING ELECTIONS IN MICHIGAN SINCE 1986, AND IN EVERY INSTANCE, I BELIEVE THAT THE CANDIDATE WHO GOT THE MOST VOTES WON, AND THAT'S ALSO THE CASE HERE IN 2020 WHEN JOE BIDEN CLEARLY WON THIS STATE.

UNFORTUNATELY, THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UNDERMINED, AND, IN FACT, 40% OF ALL VOTERS IN AMERICA BELIEVE THAT JOE BIDEN IS ILLEGITIMATELY ELECTED.

80% OF REPUBLICANS FEEL THAT WAY.

THIS IS NOT JUST SOME SORT OF MINORITY OPINION THAT'S OCCURRING HERE IN MICHIGAN OR AROUND THE COUNTRY.

THIS IS, IN FACT, A MAJORITY OF REPUBLICANS WHO BELIEVE THAT BIDEN IS ILLEGITIMATELY ELECTED.

NOW, THEY HAVE A PROBLEM.

REPUBLICANS HAVE TO GET OUT THE VOTE AND IF PEOPLE DON'T BELIEVE IN ELECTIONS, THEN THAT'S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

BUT I BELIEVE THAT BY NOVEMBER 2022, REPUBLICANS ARE GOING TO WANT TO GET TO THE POLLS.

I THINK AT THAT POINT, PRESIDENT BIDEN JUST AS ALMOST 80% OF ALL PRESIDENTS BY THE MIDTERM HAVE BEEN UNPOPULAR AT THE TIME OF THE MIDTERM.

I THINK THAT'S THE CASE WITH JOE BIDEN IN 2022.

>> ZACHARY?

>> THE REPUBLICAN -- CAN I FOLLOW UP ON THAT REAL QUICK?

THE REPUBLICAN-LED LEGISLATURE HAS BEEN PASSING REFORMS, THE MICHIGAN GOP IS LIKELY TO START A PETITION DRIVE.

WOULD IT BE BETTER IN YOUR OPINION FOR THE LEGISLATURE TO CHANGE THE LAWS THEMSELVES THROUGH THE INITIATIVE PROCESS, OR FOR IT TO GO TO VOTERS IN 2024?

COULD THAT BE A MOTIVATING FACTOR FOR THE REPUBLICANS WHO DON'T FEEL THE ELECTION WAS SECURE?

>> LOOK, THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO PARTIES ON WHETHER OR NOT THERE SHOULD BE, FOR INSTANCE, PHOTO I.D.s.

IT'S NOT A POINT THE DEMOCRATS LIKE.

IF THE REPUBLICANS WERE TO TRY TO PASS LEGISLATION, THEY COULD, THEY HAVE THE MAJORITY IN THE HOUSE AND SENATE.

IT WOULD BE VETOED BY THE GOVERNOR.

IF THEY WANT TO GET ACTUAL VOTER REFORM DONE, THEY HAVE DO IT THROUGH THE REFERENDUM PROCESS, THEN HAVE THE LEGISLATURE PASS IT SO IT DOESN'T GO TO THE VOTERS.

THAT'S PROBABLY THE STRATEGY WILL BE AND THAT MAKES SENSE IF YOU WANT TO GET LEGISLATION PASSED THAT YOU PREFER, NOT JUST WHAT THE REPUBLICANS WANT TO DO, I SUSPECT.

>> ZACHARY?

>> STEVE, SOMETHING LIKE 63.5% OF MICHIGAN RESIDENTS 16 AND OLDER HAVE GOTTEN AT LEAST THE FIRST DOSE OF THE VACCINE, I SUSPECT THAT'S HIGHER AMONG THOSE 18 AND OLDER.

THERE'S A NUMBER OF REPUBLICANS IN THE LEGISLATURE THAT HAVE PLAYED FOOTSIE WITH THE ANTI-VACCINE MOVEMENT.

ARE REPUBLICANS WHO DO THAT PLAYING WITH FIRE?

SEEMS LIKE WE DON'T HAVE 64% AGREEMENT ON A LOT OF THINGS, BUT IF YOU'VE GOT A SUPER MAJORITY OUT THERE AND PEOPLE GETTING VACCINATED AND TAKING THE STEP TO DO THAT, AND YOU HAVE A NOT INSIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF LEGISLATORS WHO DON'T SEEM ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT VACCINES AND EVEN SEEM TO BE EMPOWERING ANTI-VACCINE FOLKS, IS THAT A RISK TO REPUBLICANS THAT THEY'RE DOING THAT?

>> YEAH, THERE ARE SEVERAL BUCKETS PEOPLE WHO HAVE BEEN VERY OPPOSED TO GETTING VACCINATED.

ONE GROUP IS AFRICAN-AMERICANS.

THEY LOOK BACK AT THE TUSKEGEE PROJECT IN THE 30s, 40s, 50s, AND TAKE A LOOK AT IT AND AFRICAN-AMERICANS GOT PLACEBOS AND WHITE PEOPLE GOT REGULAR TREATMENT OF SYPHILIS AND OTHER-TYPE DISEASES LIKE THAT.

THEN YOU'VE GOT REPUBLICANS.

REPUBLICANS DISTRUST GOVERNMENT.

THEY DISTRUST THE FACT THAT THE VACCINE HAS NOT BEEN PERMANENTLY APPROVED BY THE FDA, AND THEN YOU GET WOMEN WHO ARE CHILD-BEARING AGE, CONCERNS ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT IT MIGHT AFFECT THEIR ABILITY TO HAVE CHILDREN.

YOU'VE GOT A LOT OF THE DIFFERENT BUCKETS AND THERE ARE LEGISLATORS ON BOTH SIDES, MOST DEMOCRATS SUPPORT THE VACCINATIONS, THERE ARE SOME REPUBLICANS WHO DON'T.

BUT THIS IS STILL A FREE COUNTRY, AND IT SEEMS TO ME YOU HAVE THAT RIGHT.

I'M A REPUBLICAN.

I GOT VACCINATED AS SOON AS I COULD.

I'M PROUD OF THAT, I PUT IT UP ON MY SOCIAL MEDIA SITES, BUT WE HAVE THE ABILITY THAT WE DON'T WANT TO, TO NOT GET VACCINATED, AND I SUPPORT THE RIGHTS OF THOSE WHO DON'T WANT TO.

WISH THEY WOULD.

CAN'T UNDERSTAND WHY THEY WON'T BUT THAT IS A RIGHT IN THIS NATION OF OURS.

>> NANCY?

>> I WANT TO GO BACK TO WHEN YOU WERE TALKING ABOUT THE VALUE OF A TRUMP ENDORSEMENT AND SAYING ONE OF THE REASONS IT DIDN'T WORK OUT FOR SCUTTI IS BECAUSE PEOPLE COULD SEE TRUMP AND HEAR THE THINGS HE SAID BECAUSE HE HAD FACEBOOK AND TWITTER.

CAN YOU TALK ABOUT THE APPARENT CONTRADICTION OF A PERSON'S INFLUENCE BEING LESS THE LESS WE'RE EXPOSED TO THEM?

>> WELL, DONALD TRUMP IS A UNIQUE POLITICAL FIGURE IN AMERICAN HISTORY.

YOU TALK TO SOME OF HIS MOST ARDENT REPORTERS AND THEY WILL TELL YOU I LIKE EVERYTHING HE DOES, I SUPPORT HIS POLICIES, I'M DIAMETRICALLY OPPOSED TO HILLARY CLINTON, I'M DIAMETRICALLY OPPOSED TO JOE BIDEN BUT I SUPPORT HIS POLICIES, BUT GOSH I WISH THEY WOULD TAKE AWAY HIS TWITTER ACCOUNT.

IN FACT, TWITTER TOOK AWAY HIS TWITTER ACCOUNT.

YOU HAVE A SITUATION LIKE REPUBLICANS LIKE DONALD TRUMP, MANY LIKE DONALD TRUMP'S POLICIES, THEY REALIZE IF THEY GET POLICIES THEY SUPPORT, THE ONLY WAY THEY CAN GET THOSE IS THROUGH THE VESSEL THEY DON'T WANT NECESSARILY, DONALD TRUMP, BUT THEY'RE GOING TO VOTE FOR DONALD TRUMP BECAUSE HE'S NOT JOE BIDEN OR HE'S NOT HILLARY CLINTON.

>> FOLLOW-UP, NANCY?

ARE YOU GOING TO LET HIM GET AWAY WITH THAT?

>> I MEAN, I THINK THAT IS -- YOU'RE KIND OF LIKE PAUSING A SCENARIO, YOU WERE SAYING PEOPLE SAID THEY WISH PEOPLE WOULD TAKE AWAY HIS TWITTER OR SUPPORTERS WHO WERE SYMPATHETIC TOWARDS HIM SAID THAT, WE'RE TALKING ABOUT A SCENARIO IN WHICH, IF PEOPLE CAN PRETEND HE'S SOMETHING HE'S NOT, THEY LIKE THE THINGS THEY WISH HE WOULD DO?

>> NO, I THINK -- I THINK PEOPLE UNDERSTAND WHO HE IS.

I THINK THAT THERE ARE A NUMBER OF PEOPLE -- REMEMBER HE ALMOST WON MICHIGAN A SECOND TIME.

ONLY LOST BY 150,000 VOTES WITH A HUGE VOTER TURNOUT ELECTION.

MANY VOTERS REALLY LOVE AND APPRECIATE HIM AND STAND WITH HIM 100% ON OTHER ISSUES.

OTHER REPUBLICAN VOTERS WHO VOTED FOR DONALD TRUMP MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIKE DONALD TRUMP AS A PERSON, BUT WHAT THEY DO LIKE IS HIS POLICIES, AND ULTIMATELY AT THE END OF THE DAY, POLICY RUNS GOVERNMENT, AND IF DONALD TRUMP'S POLICIES ARE FAR BETTER IN THE MINDS OF THE REPUBLICAN VOTER, THEN THE OPPONENTS AGAINST WHOM HE IS RUNNING, THEN THEY'RE GOING TO VOTE FOR DONALD TRUMP, EVEN IF THEY DON'T BELIEVE IN THE PERSONA OR EVEN IF THEY DON'T BELIEVE IN THE VALUES THAT HE MAY HAVE.

HE IS STILL A CANDIDATE THAT'S POLICIES ARE IMPORTANT TO PEOPLE AND THAT'S WHY THEY SUPPORT IT.

>> MR. MITCHELL -- GO AHEAD.

>> I'VE GOT A FRIEND THAT'S SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT.

WOULD THEY WANT THE FORMER PRESIDENT HERE CAMPAIGNING FOR THEM IN PERSON WHERE HE IS ON A STAGE AND CAN SAY SOME OF THE THINGS THAT WE'RE NOT HEARING BECAUSE HE'S NOT ON TWITTER RIGHT NOW?

>> ABSOLUTELY.

I'M RUNNING FOR GOVERNOR, I WANT HIM IN.

IN FACT, I THINK THE RESULTS IN THE RACES IN THE SENATE SEATS WE SAW EARLY LAST WEEK COULD HAVE BEEN DIFFERENT.

AND SOME CANDIDATES EMBRACED DONALD TRUMP INSTEAD OF DOING WHAT THEY DID.

AND THAT'S INCLUDING A DISTRICT IN KENT COUNTY WHERE THE PRESIDENT DOESN'T DO WELL IN EAST GRAND RAPIDS OR KENTWOOD OR AIDA BUT DOES WELL IN THE RURAL AREAS, SO YES, TRUMP IS A BIGGER POSITIVE THAN A NEGATIVE.

IT WILL GET OUT THE VOTE AND YOU ULTIMATELY HAVE TO GET OUT THE VOTE OR YOU'RE NOT GOING TO WIN.

>> MR. MITCHELL -- WE'RE RUNNING OUT OF TIME.

WE'RE GOING TO DO AN OVERTIME SEGMENT.

NANCY, I PROMISE TO COME BACK TO YOU, LOOK AT THE CLOSE CREDITS GO TO WKAR.ORG WITH MORE OF OUR CONVERSATION WITH MR. MITCHELL HOLDING HIS OWN AND WE'LL SEE YOU ON THE OTHER SIDE.

ANNOUNCER: PRODUCTION OF "OFF THE RECORD" IS MADE POSSIBLE IN PART BY THE FOLLOWING -- FOR MORE "OFF THE RECORD" VISIT WKAR.ORG.

MICHIGAN PUBLIC TELEVISION STATIONS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE PRODUCTION COSTS OF "OFF THE RECORD" WITH TIM SKUBICK.