- [Narrator] Legislators say a budget deal will not come before September 1st.

We'll discuss what is still being negotiated.

Also, new bids and campaign finance numbers for state offices in the 2024 election.

This is "State Lines."

- [Announcer] Quality public television is made possible through the financial contributions of viewers like you who invite you to join them in supporting PBS NC.

[upbeat music] ♪ - Welcome to "State Lines."

I'm Anna Beavon Graveley filling in this week.

Joining me today is political analyst Joe Stewart, representative Jason Saine of Lincoln County Senator Mary Wills Bode of Granville and Wake Counties and political analyst Steve Rao.

Welcome back to the show guys.

- Thank you.

- North Carolina House Speaker Tim Moore said a budget deal will not happen before September 1st.

Moore claimed a list of disputed budget items went down from 100 to 70 last week.

Some items still in dispute between the House and the Senate include teacher and state employee raises, casino legalization, and capital improvement spending.

North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services said a budget will need to be passed by September 1st for Medicaid expansion to take effect on October 1st.

Representative Saine, walk through, what does it actually look like if we don't have Medicaid expansion by October 1st?

- Well, it's an interesting question, right?

It's particularly since my caucus, there was some dispute as to whether we were gonna pass it outta the caucus.

I voted against it.

And as this lingers on, as the budget debate lingers on, you know, there's a window there where it could potentially be something that ends up in play on into the fall because conservatives, I think, are getting a little bit restless with this process and weren't exactly comfortable.

I mean, I knew what the numbers were so I didn't fight it terribly hard on the floor.

But this continues on.

You're gonna have some more issues, more than just whether or not Medicaid goes into effect on September 1, or it could, you know, put it into jeopardy altogether.

So we'll see.

There's some issues that are working down.

We're going through the list.

Right now, it's really between the corner offices Senator Berger and Speaker Moore are going back and forth, really whittling down that list.

It's been a long summer.

This is also nothing uncommon in North Carolina.

Luckily, we have that continuing resolution that government will go on.

- Unfortunately.

Yeah.

- Things will continue.

So no one's hitting the panic button yet but it does take a long time.

The budgets from the House and the Senate were vastly different.

And so working through those controversies and where there are controversies and certainly sets of opinions and some policy matters, takes some time.

We have made a lot of progress.

I think as people come back, even during the the break when we've been away, you know, we're on phones late at night, we're on Zoom meetings and back and forth.

So the work continues.

It's just been very slow to get through all of that.

- Mm-hmm.

Senator Bode, what are your thoughts?

- Sure, so I think to echo that we all know that time kills deals, right?

And so the longer the wait, the more Medicaid expansion is in jeopardy, and every month that passes, North Carolina misses out on $521 million a month in money going to our state, our counties, the people of North Carolina.

Not to mention the fact that we missed out on $2 billion when Medicaid did not go into effect at the end of June.

So these are real dollars.

I think you mentioned you knew the numbers when we voted on it, this past spring.

But, you know, I think one thing that's really interesting to me is the casino issue, right?

So we're talking about, I think the number is $1.7 billion annually, what casinos potentially could bring to North Carolina but that doesn't even compare to the amount of money that Medicaid expansion would bring to our state.

So we're chasing serious money with $1.7 billion to get casinos to North Carolina but we're missing out on so much other money that is available and it's tragic.

I mean, I saw numbers that since Medicaid expansion was signed into law but has not become effective, 600 North Carolinians have died.

4,000 women in North Carolina have not gotten mammograms.

9,000 North Carolinians have not been able to get medication for diabetes.

These are real people, these are people in our community and it is well past time that we get Medicaid expanded.

And I'm gonna remain hopeful and optimistic because we really need to get it done.

- Yeah.

Steve, with with all the numbers that the senator just shared is there a sense of urgency that you think that a lot of your constituents or members of of the General Assembly have with approach to this?

- Well, one of the concerns that I have, I mean, just to piggyback on what the senator said, I mean, I think that, you know, the healthcare costs continue to rise in North Carolina.

That's, I think, the urgency.

You know, Treasurer Folwell has consistently reminded us that, you know, if healthcare costs increased by 18% by 2027, we could be looking at a billion-dollar deficit.

So this means he will not be able to hold off, as the head of our state health plan, premium increases for families, the cost for the state employees in North Carolina.

And so all across the board, the longer we take to pass Medicaid expansion, it's just increased cost for our state employees denying, you know, greater access to healthcare for 600,000 North Carolinians and preventive testing.

You know, we often forget some of the diseases that senator mentioned.

Diabetes, you know, cardiovascular disease, just more preventive tests.

You know, preventive healthcare can really reduce those costs by even, you know, four or five points and I think that's gonna really help our state.

So I'm hoping to be an optimist here and, you know, representative Saine's making the sausage right now as the chair of appropriations, but hopefully we can get it done and get this done for North Carolinians before December.

That's my biggest concern, is whether we'd have to wait until December.

October was when Secretary Kinsley wanted us to have the Medicaid expansion done, so... - Yeah, we may be narrowing down the list of topics but the gravity of them and the impact on our state is quite huge.

- Right.

- Yeah.

- And I'll add too that there's also talk in those budget talks about what would truly, actually lower cost in healthcare, right?

So there's certificate of need issues that are being debated still, other policy matters that we really could see cost reduction, the possibility of that.

So to your point, there's a lot of bigger issues that take time that you should never rush into.

Big policy matters that will impact people's lives.

Whether you're for Medicaid expense or not, there's a lot of other components of our healthcare policies that matter and how we look at those and how we address those as a state.

This is not a new topic, this is something that will continue.

I would love to tell you that Medicaid expansion would reduce costs.

I don't think that's the case.

I think they're gonna increase anyway.

But there's other reasons for Medicaid expansion.

I understand those arguments.

But there are other things that we can do too, toward reducing costs, and I think we need to do that.

- Yeah.

- And one thing I will say.

I think we both represent part of rural North Carolina.

2/3 of people who live in rural North Carolina are either uninsured or underinsured.

I was at a rural health clinic in my district yesterday.

We have had 11 rural hospitals close in North Carolina since 2005.

And not only are they a lifeline for critical care, but they're also major employers in these rural areas.

So you know, it's my understanding that I think North Carolina is in the top three worst states for rural hospital closures.

And you know, these hospitals are doing everything they can to provide care.

But they really need that cash infusion that Medicaid expansion will provide them.

So they continue to be a life support for people across our state.

- And certainly, budgets are complicated things.

I mean, it's not as though the general assembly just clooges together a few disparate things.

I mean, the taxation rate affects the availability and the amount of money available to be spent.

I think some part of our frustration at this point, imagine how the children would feel on December 25th if they'd originally been promised that Christmas would be on December 1st.

And so part of the problem that I'm seeing here is that we thought this would all be done in time for the start of the fiscal year, July 1st.

And it's beyond that point.

There is an argument to be made that the state needs to be thoughtful about the representation of its financial wherewithal by putting together a budget in a timely process.

But I think that having been said, the news is all good.

Fiscal Research came out this week and said it looks like collections are $3 billion above where they were projected to be for the end of last fiscal year.

But I do think, if there's anything we can take away from this experience, if there's more of a guardrail we can put in the legislative process to try to assure that the budget's done in time for the start of the fiscal year.

- Yeah.

- If we could just make people agree.

[all laugh] - Yeah.

Steve, so we've dealt with a lot of...

Senator shared a little bit more about some of the closings of hospitals and rural areas.

It makes me jump to teachers.

That's also a completely regular topic that is a huge divide between the House and the Senate, the governor's office and the general assembly.

So do you think there should be a greater sense of urgency around coming to a conclusion on teacher pay as schools are about to start?

- Well, absolutely.

I mean, you know, I'm a really proud parent of kids who came through the Wake County school system.

One's going to Carolina, one's going to NC State.

But you know, but the- - Go Heels.

- Yeah, go Pack, go Heels, both, go both.

I got both- - Well played.

Well played, sir, well played.

- I got both my hats in the car.

But yeah, I think that this is really important.

We've gotta pay teachers more.

Because you know, number one, from a recruitment perspective.

You know, we're having labor shortages all across the board in almost every industry, but teachers is one.

And you know, these are the folks that are out there with our kids, teaching 'em about really important skills as we transition to an emerging economy with lots of shifts in terms of the kinds of skills for our kids, you know?

In terms of just innovation, ai, robotics, analytics.

These are the jobs of the future, even though we're automating away a lot of jobs.

There couldn't be a better time to pay teachers more.

So I mean, I know efforts have been made.

And I know when you go through the budget process, you know, I'm at a much lower level, at a city level working on budgets, you can't make everyone happy all at the same time.

But I think that this is an important issue.

You know, I would hope that we could get that teacher pay up as soon as we could.

You know, so.

- And it is an important issue.

That's why we've been dug in, right?

I mean, the governor's budget was one.

And then the House budget was different, not as much as the governor wanted.

But it's certainly more than what the Senate wanted.

So we've been going back and forth on this issue.

And as people at home think about that, we didn't just give up on it.

And it's not something we just said, well, we put it on paper and said, well, we really didn't mean that.

We really meant it, which is why it's been extended, why the debate has been extended.

So when people have some impatience, or you see the Twitter trolls out there that talk about it, the reality is that sticking to our position is probably a better place for a lot of the people who endorse what the House was doing.

So that's why you see this extended discussion.

- Right, and the other thing I'll add is housing costs.

You know, we often say what does housing cost have to do with teachers?

But we're seeing a lot of teachers having a hard time getting a place to live, in Kerry, in Mooresville, anywhere around the state.

And so just having a little bit more income, paying them not only what they're worth, but just so that they're having to not spend 20 or 30% of their income on a house.

And that's an affordable housing issue.

But I think some of these issues are sometimes connected.

So you know, hopefully we can continue to move the needle on this issue.

- Yeah, absolutely, none of these issues exist in a silo, right?

Housing, healthcare, teacher pay.

You know, I'm very concerned about the bus driver shortage in Wake County.

We're about 17 folks short to be able to do our bus routes the way they need to be done.

I'm concerned about kids sitting on buses too long because we can't meet that need.

And you know, the clock is ticking.

We've got maybe two weeks until school starts.

And so those issues have cascading effects that are gonna have significant influence on a child's ability to learn this year, and for years to come.

- A new Republican candidate has announced his run for the 2024 governor's race.

Jesse Thomas is a retired healthcare executive, and was previously involved in the Forward Party.

Thomas says he's a no-nonsense Republican, and hopes to win over unaffiliated voters.

He joins a handful of Republican candidates, and Democrat Josh Stein.

Steve, we're coming back to you on this.

It seems with the Forward Party, and then the No Labels party, which we've talked about on the show before, there seems to be a new urgency, or a new desire to focus on unaffiliated voters.

Do you think that's gonna maybe give him an edge and a handful of candidates?

- Well, that's what I was about to say.

A real increase in this focus on the largest vote bank in North Carolina, unaffiliated voters, the independent voters, right?

And No Labels has been focusing a lot more on the federal elections.

I know United States Senator Joe Manchin from my home state of West Virginia has been talking about running.

I think there's been talk about him running for one of the presidential ticket, I think with John Huntsman on No Labels.

But the Forward Party's just another example.

They focus a lot more...

I've been in touch with officials from the Forward Party, founded by Andrew Yang, focused a lot on these unaffiliated moderate voters on both sides of the aisle, Republican and Democrat.

Rank choice voting, open primaries, working against gerrymandering, these are the things that the Forward Party stands for.

So in this election, it seems to me, at the national level, now at the state level, Forward Party's looking for local candidates, state candidates.

And in fact, Jesse Thomas, the gubernatorial candidate was the former chair, I think, of the Forward Party.

And so this is interesting.

Is it gonna be eventually a point where a third party could come in?

I mean, right now the system's hard to break through, both the Democrat and the Republican.

I don't see it being too much of a game changer in the governor's race.

I still think it's Mark Robinson's race to lose on the Republican side.

Who knows?

I would never count Dale Folwell out.

He's a hard worker.

And then of course, Josh Stein I think the presumptive nominee for the Democratic Party.

Oh, Jesse talks a lot about the kitchen table issues.

You know, Medicaid expansion, healthcare, bringing sort of a moderate independent view to the governor's office.

He's a Black American, brings diversity to the Republican party in terms of another Black American running for governor.

But, I don't see it changing too much.

But interesting to see...

I'd be interested to see what my colleagues think about kind of this push for third parties coming in.

Is it viable?

Can it be done or is it saying something about where we are today politically?

- Yeah, Senator Bode, your thoughts?

- Sure, so one thing that I think is interesting that despite the kind of clear favored candidate for governor on the Republican side, Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson.

And also at the federal level for president, former President Donald Trump, despite the polling and the fundraising showing that they're most favored to win their primaries, the field is still quite crowded.

And there are a lot of people coming forward and stepping into the arena, which I think shows to your point, this desire and willingness for other people to wade into that alternative, more moderate conservative platform, which I just find very interesting and we'll see what happens.

- Yeah, Representative Saine, do you think with a with a crowded primary for on the Republican side that's gonna be helpful or hurtful for the eventual nominee?

- Look, I always think it's helpful when people have a choice, right?

The issue for those candidates in the race, in any race, is how do they get that message out, right?

If your message is going to win, you first have to be able to broadcast it, in some shape, form, manner of fashion.

Whether it's going door to door and shaking hands right there with the individual voter at their door or it's some type of broadcast mechanism or a social media campaign or all of those.

So, the campaign that has the better running machine to get elected is always gonna be upfront.

And for someone who's just got in, that's always tough.

I don't care what party they're representing.

It's tough when you come in late.

I think Mark Robinson has been running for governor, or at least thinking about it, once he became Lieutenant Governor.

You know, he had some eyes on something else he wanted to do.

So preparing for that gives you a decided advantage.

And again, any party in the presidential race that you mentioned.

I'm backing Governor DeSantis.

He was in Charlotte not long ago.

My son and I got to meet him, talk with him.

He's someone that I've seen as a leader in his state, respectively, doing some good things in Florida.

But, we've got a former president that has an advantage because he one, has a lot of name ID.

He has a lot of wealth, a lot of money behind him.

So all of those things play into what choices voters are going to make.

So for anybody that just starts a campaign on a good feeling and a whim... And I'm not saying that someone's done that.

I'm just saying if they do, that's not how you get elected.

So it really comes into the hand-to-hand combat, the showing up, doing the debates, getting out, getting voters to where they get to know you, where you do get to talk to 'em.

If you can't have that conversation, then it is kinda all for nothing.

- Republican Congressman Dan Bishop announced that he will run for North Carolina Attorney General.

Bishop is a member of the conservative Freedom Caucus in congress.

Two conservative groups, Club for Growth and the Republican Attorneys General Association or RAGA announced their support for Bishop.

North Carolina's last republican Attorney General was in 1896.

Joe, before we get started on how long that's been since there's been a republican Attorney General, who are these groups?

- Well, the Club for Growth has been very active in North Carolina in the last election cycle supporting Ted Budd in the Republican primary for US Senate.

It clearly made a difference.

The amount of money that that organization brought in to bring up the name recognition of Ted Budd, which is a critical factor in either party's primary.

If you've never run for a statewide office before, generally speaking, not many people across the state know who you are.

So, Club for Growth is a very conservative, low tax oriented, free market type of organization who makes these fierce commitments to candidates and puts money behind it in advertising, which makes a big difference.

Bishop has a very positive profile in terms of the types of candidates that Club for Growth likes to support.

He's been active in the Freedom Caucus.

He actually won a special election for that congressional seat initially in what was a kinda awkward situation where the result had been invalidated and a new candidate had to be found.

What a great kerfuffle in North Carolina to have such a such a thing happen in our congressional races.

But I think Bishop presents a very formidable candidate for Attorney General.

In all likelihood, he will not have another serious challenge on the GOP side of things, I believe.

It's not entirely clear who the strongest democrat to run for Attorney General yet is.

There's a little bit of a sense that Jeff Jackson, another congressman whose district might be redrawn to be slightly less favorable for a democrat might decide to run for Attorney General instead.

That would be a very strong, high profile, probably equally supported by outside groups type of democratic candidate for Attorney General.

But I think Bishop stands a very good chance of winning the Republican primary and stands in good shape to be a strong Republican candidate next November for Attorney General.

- Yeah, Steve, Congressman Bishop is certainly battle tested specifically in the race that Joe mentioned.

Do you think that that's gonna be enough for him to push out any sort of other additional challenger or to come out ahead of whoever the Democrat nominee will be?

- Well, I think first of all in his primary, I think clearly he'll be the front runner, but I wouldn't count Tom Murry out.

Tom Murry is a republican who held the council seat I hold now for 12 years.

But republicans, democrats can be friends.

He's a good friend.

He's a hard worker.

You know, I wouldn't count Tom out.

I think he could still be viable to win the primary.

But in terms of the General, I think a Bishop, Jeff Jackson race would be a very, very tough, interesting race.

Jackson has got a tremendous amount of charisma, is getting to work and rolling up the sleeves in Washington.

He's been a state senator.

I think he would work really hard.

He's a very great campaigner.

So I think that it would be a close race.

I think a lot of these races of the Council of State level will be dictated by who the presidential nominee is.

These races really are won by margin of 10,000 votes, like Attorney General Stein.

So, you win the primary and then not really rolling the dice, but the big races are Governor, Attorney General.

But even for some of the other Council of State races, I'm sure if you took a poll, most people wouldn't even know who's announced for treasurer.

The other races, you know, John Hardister running for labor commissioner.

So, but to answer your question, yeah, I think Dan Bishop would be very formidable having been tested, having been a congressman, having been a real advocate for the conservative side of his party, and then the money, and that's the mother's milk of politics, isn't it?

I mean, one billion dollars of federal money spent on elections in 2000.

Today, that number's passing $14 billion, the Tillis race could be an $800 million dollar race.

I mean, you can't get your message out if you don't have money.

- Yeah, you could not be more right.

That's something that we've seen with early projections and announcements of fundraising.

Both of you have an experience in fundraising.

Do you feel like this is, early endorsements, how does that make you feel as a candidate?

- Well early endorsements matter, they do, and they certainly inject a lot of energy and a lot of, it makes your race a lot more high profile, or you as a candidate.

- [Anna] Yeah.

- Or it gives you a lot higher profile.

You know, you mentioned Tom Murray.

I mean, there are other very formidable candidates in these races, so nothing's a given.

Anyone early can stumble, fundraising could drop off, fundraising could pick up for someone else, so it's a little too early to tell and to say, "This is the person that's gonna carry the flag for their respective parties," but I do think it does matter when you get that early influx of money, that early interest, really, because certainly then, from the press conference and the news coverage, is getting some free press, right, and that matters, too.

So we'll see how that all pans out.

I do agree with Steve that, you know, some of the other council, state races, sometimes get, you know, eclipsed by our governor's race, by our lieutenant governor's race, but AG, which remember, AG's for "aspiring governor."

[all laughing] - And, uh.

- Up until now.

We don't know.

It could change, really.

- We don't know.

- But those races matter, and a lot of money gets raised and put into those, so there's some things you see on television, those are things that the press is talking about, so it will matter what kind of fundraising that these candidates can do between now and that primary.

- Yeah.

Senator Bode, you are no stranger to very expensive races.

I think you were, your senate race was nearly $3,000,000 on a state senate race?

- Wow.

- Yes, and I'm happy to talk about campaign finance reform when anyone wants to talk about it.

[all laughing] - But I think, you know, what the representative said, I think, you know, there are only two ways to run, scared and unopposed.

[all laughing] - And it really is, you know, it really is too early.

- Yeah.

- You know, we're well over a year out.

It's too early to tell.

Certainly, early money matters most.

- [Anna] Yeah.

- As candidates, we work really hard to get a lot of money early on, and, you know, that gets invested into the race and goes from there, but so I think it will be interesting.

You know, what was mentioned is unaffiliated voters, and these races are gonna be very close races, and so, I think winning a primary is gonna be very different than winning a general election, and so seeing how some of these candidates can pivot and really appeal to the more moderate, unaffiliated voters, certainly suburban women have been deciding factors in many elections, and so, thinking through, you know, as a member of the Democratic party, thinking through that profile and what that looks like is certainly very important to make sure that we can be successful in 2024 at the top of the ticket.

- And the cohort of unaffiliated voters, you raised this point, because there's no U.S. Senate race on the ballot, really, the governor's race is the most conspicuous of the state races.

Typically, unaffiliated voters do vote in equal numbers to their actual representation among voters, registered voters, in primaries, but whether they choose the Republican or Democratic ticket to vote in will be driven in large part, I think, by where we are in the Presidential contest.

If it's ultimately been already decided who the two nominees are by the time the North Carolina primary rolls around, unaffiliated voters may not feel as inspired to want to turn out because they will say there's not a race where they feel it's important for them to participate.

If you look at what Chuck Edwards did to beat Madison Cawthorn in the congressional district in that Republican primary two years ago, or in the 2022 election, it was a concentrated effort to convince unaffiliated voters who did not like Madison Cawthorn to participate in the Republican primary, and that made a big difference.

Whether any of these candidates can pull off a hat trick like that to get unaffiliated voters enthusiastic about supporting them in their party's primary, I think is yet to be seen.

- Yeah, and I think it's gonna be a very clear choice for voters in 2024.

We are just in a very polarized, hostile, political environment.

I don't see there being a lot of Biden-Bishop voters.

I think it's gonna be pretty clear.

[all laughing] - Very divided.

- It's North Carolina, you never can tell.

- Also, a lot can happen in a year and a half.

Where is the economy?

Inflation is coming down.

Is the economy gonna get better?

What's gonna happen with the war in Ukraine?

Gas prices?

All of these things are factored in.

- Steve, we'll have to cut you off.

- Yeah.

- Thank you so much for our panelists for joining us today.

Email your thoughts and opinions to statelines@pbsnc.org.

I'm Anna Beavon Gravley.

Thanks for watching and we'll see you next time.

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