Plenty of information to unpack from that primary last Tuesday in our state.

So thanks for tuning in and sitting in with us as we get the inside out.

Off the Record.

Production of Off the Record is made possible in par by Bellwether Public Relations, a full servic strategic communications agency partnering with clients through public relations, digital marketing and issue advocacy.

Learn more at bellwetherpr.com.

And now this edition of Off the Record, with Tim Skubick.

All right somebody cue Roy Orbisons song.

It's over.

Remember that song at last?

Welcome to studi C and lots happened on Tuesday.

But obviously the major story is the U.S.

Senate race on the Democratic side.

But I've asked yo to think about this beforehand.

The second most important story, Chuck?

Big money didn't buy th results of Michigan's elections.

All right.

I'm going to go with hometown hero of the 13th Congressional District.

Donovan McKinney, kind of a hometown guy bouncing off Shri Thanedar who moved into that district later in life.

And also here in the seventh district, we had Will Lawrence sort of, be a surprise, topping the list of candidates here.

See, that's what I was going to say.

So I'm going to pull out.

See when youre in that third chair youre really playing catch up.

So I' going to pull out my deep cut.

And it was very interesting to see voters reject data center plans.

All righty.

I'll say turnout.

Nearly, 1.3 million Democrats turned out like, three times as much as I have turned out i the last two cycles, 22 and 24.

Republican down.

So nearly 600,000 more voters in the Democratic primar than in the Republican primary.

All right, there goes mine.

All right, so now here's my follow up.

Thank you, William, I appreciate it so much.

And what am I going to say?

Mike Cox 13%.

Yeah.

Yeah.

13%.

And do you think those were people that didn't know he wasn't running?

I think there's got to be some of that.

But also he dropped out so late that absentees were already in the field.

Peopl may have already returned them.

And you know are you going to go spoil your ballot.

It's a it's a bit of trouble to do.

So if you're not passionate about either of the other two candidates who remain.

How much more might have gotten if, people didn't retrieve their ballot and vote again?

Well, quickly.

There's some in this town think it was a protest vote against the other people on the ballot, namely Mr.

James or Mr.

Johnson.

Would you buy that theory?

Yeah, I would buy that theory.

There you go.

All right Chuck.

So that was that was, har fought, very personal campaign.

And I think there people didn't want James and didn't want them.

And so they looked in middle.

And didnt want Johnson, they looked in the middle and said, you know, let me check on.

What if Trump had endorse Cox.

You think possibly Cox could have won?

Well, of course.

Well, I do think it's interesting that that wasn't the only race where there was a significant chunk of people who voted for someone who technically wasn't running anymore.

We saw and we saw him drop.

Down, and we're not really in July, right?

Yeah, yeah.

And then in the people.

Tell people who it is.

Oh, yeah.

So, so in, in, Kristen McDonald Rivet siege on the Republican primary.

Amir Hassa was the Trump endorsed candidate and then his rival who had dropped out after Trump weighed in on the race, ended up winning the primary, which no one was expecting.

But now he's back in.

All right.

Is anybody surprised by the number of votes that Mallory McMorrow got?

I was suprised she got 4 percent.

Look it.

Mallory McMorrow determined that election boys and girls, did she not?

I think she got out specifically not to be a determinant of that election.

And sadly, I mean, if you if you spli those votes, different outcome.

I mean, the margin is, you know, 25, 30,000 votes.

And she got, I think, 60,000.

So I mean, it's certainly, I'm not going to say it's the determinative factor, but it was a factor.

All right.

So now we're in the story.

Let's go there.

Okay.

Chuck, what surprised you with that U.S.

Senate race?

I wasn't terribly surprised.

I been listening to people, and I told someone that morning of the election in the newsroom.

I said, there's going to be a surprise in this race.

And I said, I think it's going to be El Sayed.

He ran a very good race.

He got in early.

His message was focused.

He didn't get side barred into some of the more theatrical typ of branding that the other side was making on him.

He had the best commercials of everybody, in my opinion.

And he took the fight to his opponent and he won close.

But he didn't get side tracke by the fact that so much money was spent against him.

Did anybody think it would be this close, though?

Look, I thought it was going to be close.

Its a big story how far the polls were off going into the election.

Well, they may have been accurate the week before.

Not the week before.

I listened for the last ten days.

You have a whole bunch of polls, eight polls came out leads for El-Sayed anywhere between 10%, 17%.

It ended up being a cliffhanger, a 1%.

So there was huge, disappointment in pollster and polling, on this election.

This is a real generational battle.

You know, I saw a young people very excited about El-Saye and felt like we got to get out.

And these are people that probably werent loyal voters, you know, been voting every every year, no matter what.

They can't compete with senior citizens.

No, no, no.

But they.

Right.

But they came in with passion.

And the issues in this race have excited them and got them to the polls.

And as Bill said, I think that's why you saw tha high Democratic voter turnout.

Yeah, I think that was those polls that were coming out right before the election.

I was I was always a little skeptical that El-Sayed was going to pull away with double digits.

I don't think based on what we were hearing coming out of Detroit, I don't think that was ever a reality.

Haley Stevens really did what she needed to do in Detroit, but she didn't do what she needed to do in Oakland County, which was run away with Oakland County as well.

And we saw in Oakland County that generational split, especially, really had an impact.

Like she was like a little ahead there.

But, you know, the El-Sayed, made a lot of inroads in a place where, you know, she represented she should have been able to do more.

So her bounce out of Detroit was significant enough.

I thought that was the one when when CNN showed that big blue bubble of Detroit, I said to my wife, this is where she might win this thing.

It was really close, an it really came down to the wire.

And it highlighted some of El-Sayeds biggest issues with voters, you know, with with, you know, older, African-American voters for sure.

And and then also, you know, I think, we've already heard after the election that there' a big segment of Jewish voters who are still concerned about some of the rhetoric that came out of that primary.

And that map for El-Sayed, I don't think is, a map that any candidate would dream of.

He lost Wayne, Oakland, Macomb.

Those are our three most populous counties.

They are the hear of the population of the state.

They're the heart of voters of the state.

But he made big gains, specifically in more rural areas.

He won a lot of U.P.

counties.

He had Kent County by 62%.

I think I saw Washtenaw at 61 or 62.

So, you know, he put together an unusual coalition, different than what we've seen went in past elections.

All right.

So around this table, we speculated, can the party bring itself back together?

They've had a couple events that went pretty well.

Okay.

You're shaking your head.

You're not a believer yet.

Oh, I don't kno if it's that I'm not a believer.

I think that they're really going to make a strong push for this.

And we're also seeing among the national trends, this is likely going to be a very good year for Democrats nationally.

I think the one the the thing that might bring on some of those people who were a little skeptical of El-Sayed voted for Stevens, is Jocelyn Benson.

I have a hard time seeing a ton of people break for Benson and Rogers, but the issue is that maybe people skip the Senate race, maybe people don't turn out because their candidate didn't win.

I think that is still an open question.

And it is so interesting that our top of ticket is going to have Benson, who's more of a moderate establishment, Democrat, has really worked her way up through every rank, you'd think, to walk yourself up through.

And Abdul El-Sayed, who's this progressive, firebrand outsider, first elected office that he could win.

And, you know, I just think that, it's a real contrast.

Voters could very well elect both those people.

And I don't know what that tells us about the future of the Democratic Party.

Can the two of them campaign together?

I don't think they campaigne together a lot unless they view each other's campaigns going extremely well, and both of them really staying on message for what independent and swing voters want to hear.

That's going to be the key in this electio or or they stay far away apart.

I think Benson is going to have to be a little more careful because of the branding tha Republicans are going to put on.

El-Sayed she doesn't want to get saddled down with that.

And she, as you said, i much more moderate in this race.

There is precedent for ignoring the rest of the ticket.

Jennifer Granholm okay what did she do with the Feiger?

Nothing.

Yeah, yeah, she wasn't there.

Yeah.

All right.

So what do you make of this, this unity thing?

Well, I think they've taken the right steps so far.

I mean, McMorrow and Steven have joined hands and embraced El-Sayed and, so far, so good.

But I think the real question is, is Stevens going to be out there on the campaign trail with El-Sayed?

And how do they get around the conflicting message that they wage in the primary?

The interest groups are really locked in.

I mean, the Muslim population on the one hand and the Jewish population, there is so much hatred and vitriol there that that's probably goin to be more significant about how he proceeds from here than personal relationship with Stevens and McMorrow.

I'm also I'm also goin to be really interested to see, how involved Governor Gretchen Whitmer gets in, especially the U.S.

Senate race, because, you know when we were doing, at bridge, some just exit, you know talking to voters at the exits, a lot of Stevens supporters said, you know, I was a little on the fence but then Governor Whitmer said, vote Stevens.

And so that was ultimately what made them decide.

So I am really interested to see if and she has she has said, you know, let' support the Democratic nominee.

Let's elec Democrats, defeat Mike Rogers.

But, you know, is she going to go out there and say to those voters, it is really importan to get a Democrat in this seat?

Correct me if I'm wrong.

Was she with Stevens on that last critical weekend?

Yes.

The governor?

The governor.

Oh she did.

She did come to Detroit and hel a rally at the Teamsters Hall.

And so she that that was a situation where, you know, it did, you know, start to become clear to me.

It's like, well, Stevens is going to do well in Detroit, I think, partly because of Whitmer, partly because of her associatio with the Obama administration.

And I think having having that influence and having people come to Detroit and say, hey, I know your preference didn't win here, or some of the merits of the Democratic candidate is going to be crucial.

And I think people also sensed in the Stevens campaign that she was having some difficulty, and they were hoping that Whitmer could help pull it out for her.

At the last second she got involved.

Whitmer stayed out of the gubernatorial race, and I think she did Benson a favor by doing that, because Benson's always been on the ticket with her, but never at the top of the ticket, and Benson had to go out and win this on her own.

And she can now say, I did it on my own.

And so Mike Rogers immediately paints Mr.

El-Sayed as what?

Extreme.

I think there's a lot o talk nationally from Republicans runnin against these more progressive candidate who are trying to paint them as, you know, socialists or communists in some case Marxist, Marxist in some cases.

But, you know, Abdul El-Sayed has said all along he's a capitalist.

And I think that we're seeing him run on a platform that reflects that perhaps a little differently than, than traditionally but.

Hes never been a member of the Social Democratic wing of a party, and he's deliberately askew.

The Republicans don't care, Billy.

No, I agree They will try to look at this.

This is this is they're going to bang away at this.

And he has to explain.

Yeah.

That's all they got frankly right now.

Yeah.

They're in real trouble.

We're we're going to be hearing about this a lot.

And you know, a lot of his associates are, you know, people who have either been democratic socialists or embraced concepts that are supported by people who consider themselves democratic socialists.

And so it is a really tight line to lock, to say, yes, these are the policies that I support.

But, you know, he he has sai frequently on the campaign trail that this is not some he has never been a member of the DSA and he rejects that label.

But I think wha that labels really is shifting, you know, popular perception in the last 10 or 15 years, 15 years ago, if you called someone a socialist, it could be a campaign under, right.

There are people running i the Democratic Socialist Party.

Like I think that it's really.

And they're winning.

And they're winning and they're winning.

So I think it's really shifted.

I don't think that's like a, a word that might have had the same connotation a cycle or two ago.

What I'm waiting to see is how does Rogers and James run with or run away from President Donald Trump?

Because his approval rating is in the tank and they now have to come towards the center.

They cannot win with the MAGA vote alone.

Just the same way El-Sayed is not going to win with just the progressive vote alone.

They've got to come to the center.

And do they accomplish that by letting Donald Trump in their campaign, making fun of El-Sayeds names and things like that?

How did that go over when the made fun of Barack Obama's name?

I want to see a debate between Rogers and El-Sayed, or a couple.

You know, we've heard a lot in the last few day about the gubernatorial debate, but we haven't heard anything yet about, I mean, El-Sayed I think immediately challenge Rogers to five debates.

Not going to happen.

It's not well, that's too many.

But you know, the bottom line is From our point of view.

Thats too realisticall to expect they're going to have.

But the point is they got to have some.

And those are going to be fascinating.

Let me let me throw this on the table, Richard Czuba made a point the other day.

He said, I think this race is going to come down to for independent voters, whom do they like the least, Donald Trump or socialists.

He mentioned that to me, too, actually.

And I think I think it's going to b a really interesting case study here in the seventh district, because William Lawrence, until very recently, apparently the last month or two, was.

He didnt renew his membership.

He didn't renew his membership to the Democrats.

On purpose?

Well.

You think?

I think you're already seeing I saw a post from Tom Barrett the other day of, you know, ho it was a bar chart of how long they had been a member o the Democratic Socialist Party, and his was like something like 16,500 days versus a month, 30 days.

And, you know, depending on what the top issue of a voter is, that could be something that they care about.

But at the same time, if an independent has seen, you know some of the things that came out of the Trump administration, if they were impacted by some of the some of the federal government codes or the tariffs or any of these economic policies, gas prices, that could end up being a deciding factor.

So what are the views against, Miss Benson?

Let's shift over to the, the governor's race.

What are the what is what are the major issue they're going to come after?

You know, I think the people are interested right now in affordability issues like Lauren mentioned.

Obviously the governor has limited impact there.

And I think people are interested right now in like some, I guess, issues like data centers that are a little bit, more.

She's got a position paper on it, but is right down the lin on what you're supposed to say.

And it's harder to draw the line on, I think.

I think people are, you know, when you're lookin at those data center positions, sometime they just start to blur together and look a lot the same.

I think it's, I think we're also going to see voting and elections come up.

We've already seen Trump repeat some of those voter fraud claims.

Benson was at the center of that in 2020 and she's defended her record.

And we're already seeing that narrative come up again.

And so she might have to once again defend her actions to voters.

I am not sure exactl how much voters care about that at this stage, but Republicans are trying to make them care.

Well, will Mr.

James try to paint some of the decisions made by Gretchen Whitmer and transfer over to Miss Benson?

I think Bensons already.

I don't I don't think that's necessarily going to work.

And the fact.

But he sort of said that in the speech, you know, did I not hear that correctly?

I think you did.

Okay.

Theyre going to have a tough time weighing things on he that they could really get her.

And they're going to try the Southern Leadership Conference, thing.

They're going to, go election integrity.

You're going to hear a lot about that.

But the point is what's going to stick.

And so far, I don't think they've hit on anything that really is goin to stick with her data centers.

I mean, John James does not have the greatest track record on data centers.

You know.

What do they do to Benson?

I think Bill's hit the nail on the head.

I think they're going to have a difficult time.

And I think they're trying to figure it out right now.

What can we use against her that sticks?

This is someone that has been in office for eight years.

So, yes.

You say she has a track record this plenty.

I'm sure they're digging through everything she did over the last eight years to try to find something.

But this is also a governor that has a high approval rating right now.

And so therefore everybody i her administration is benefiting from this.

And people right now are not upset with Governor Whitmer and her administration in her trifecta.

They're going to work at it.

But I think it's goin to be tougher than they think.

Well, it'll be interesting to see if down the road, Miss Benson will have to put a little distance between herself and this governor if they continue down that path which is a tight wire to walk.

I mean, you know, she can say, look, I wasn't in the legislature, I wasn't forming any of these policies.

And there are some things tha the governor did that I liked.

And frankly there's some that I didn't like.

And I'm going to be my own person here.

I'm going to use this as a guidepost.

But you can't blame me for her alleged sins will be the line yes or no.

And yes, but don't get Gretchen Whitmer mad at you and have her say something in public that's disparaging.

If you're Jocelyn Benson, we've got to be careful that.

We've seen a little bit of that.

Jocelyn Benson did tweet after Whitmer vetoed the nine bills that definitely angered some, labor allies, and it sounded like Jocelyn Benson would have handled that differently.

I would also say tha Whitmer has taken some actions that are making her less popular among her base, and, recent months, I would say I think the data center, support the nine bills, certainly.

And a couple of other things that have kind of made people question 959.

Correct.

Okay.

I don't think Whitmer has the exact poll she had with her base even a few months ago.

I just think that James has working on his side is, let's fac it, we've all been around here long enough to know the history is sort of on his side.

Michigan purple state.

It likes to flip back and forth between Democrats and Republicans.

They're going to go out there and say, hey, you've had eight years of this trifecta.

It's time we put Republicans back in charge of this state to make them fiscally responsible and all the other things that they're going to tout.

And if you look at the history it works for them, potentially.

Now, history doesn't vote, people vote.

But that's certainly something that if you look at it, it is going to work for them.

I predict that's no going to happen this year.

Well.

This streak will end.

Well streaks end.

It may very wel because it's been a long time.

What is 61, 61, 61 was last time we handed it off to Swinson.

I would be really intereste to see if environmental issues come up in the general election.

So far in the primary cycle we just haven't heard anything about it.

It's been mostly affordability, affordability, affordability.

But then we are seeing that those concerns start to creep up because of data centers, because of the line five action that have been taken recently.

So that is potentially an issue where Benson could differentiate herself if she chose to.

So do you guys think this race will be decided on issues?

Yeah, I mean I yeah.

Talk to Mike Cox.

Mike Cox put together white papers like Rick Snyder did, which nobody random except Mr.

Snyder.

The two kids and the whole thing.

Okay.

And Cox says we didn't get any hits at all.

Okay, we got some, but a minuscule number.

Okay.

At the end of the day, isn't that how we feel about these candidates?

How you feel and not only how you feel about Donald Trump.

That's what it's going to be more than anything else.

It's not going to be based on policy.

The difference in the results in the election.

Can I think how much you're invested in, like the direction needing a big change here.

Right.

I think what we saw from Abdu El-Sayed supporters was people who are really, really invested in sort of, taking the system to task.

And who can best frame the emotional issues that make people want to go out and vote.

And I don't know who's goin to do the best job on on that.

These are all well-spoken, articulate candidates, but they've got to get out on that stump, and they've got to be able to campaign and compete hard and see who resonates with the voters out there, because the voters are angry over a lot of things.

And don't forget, that's Bill Clinton saying year ago, it's the economy, stupid.

And the economy right now is upsetting both Democrats and Republicans and certainly independents.

You've got two Republican qualit candidates for attorney general, secretary of state.

The question is, can they do well in this climate this year, with everything else going against them?

I also think this election is really going to be a case study in what happens when all of the energy the focus and the national money is on the race.

That's not at the top of the ticket.

The US Senate is going to dominate this year.

Perry Johnson, what happened?

I mean I think he ran a tough campaign.

I think he really invested a lot into, putting himself right at the top.

I think we saw a lot of ads.

Obviously, I think everyone saw a lot of ads.

It's fair to say, but at the end of the day, I mean, John James is probably Michigan's bigges Republican celebrity right now.

He's the one you see on Fox News.

He's the one that's going on TV.

He's the one that has a lot of name recognition.

And I talked to some people at the polls who really were excited to cast a vote for him.

Talking about Perry Johnson.

If we had never heard of him until this year, and he was a first time candidate like Rick Snyder was back in 2010, I think he would have done a lot better, but he was such damaged goods from his failed races back in 2022 and for president, and I think a lot of people wrote him off as a kook and somebody who just wasn't credible.

And he could have spent $100 million more, and he still would've lost.

And couple that he also came off in, particularly in his ads and especially towards the end as mean spirited.

And I think a lot of people were afraid and said, this guy gets in, I'll tell hi what the heck he's going to do, and he has no track record that we can look back on.

And having said, okay, we know how you vote when you were in the legislature or something else, and he won the brass ring at the top without ever having built himself u politically in any lower office.

Michiganders were, I think, really keyed in on campaign finance this cycle.

I think APAC funding wa a huge factor for Haley Stevens.

I think two shell funders, true ten and Perry Johnson, both did not fare well.

And then you thought, even in debates like specific and energy company donations come up like I just I don't know that I've seen that sort of laser focus on the connection between money and politics.

And this is going to be elevated because that issue is going to be on the ballot on this very point that we want to get big money out of politics.

And so that's tailor made for somebody who's running on that issue.

That's part of the reason that I think El-Saye was able to pull this one off, because he has talked about it in theory for so long.

But then voters saw it play out in real time in both the US Senate and the governor's race.

So the biggest loser in th primary was money in politics.

Let me just make a point on Billy Bs earlier answer.

The 550,000 vote difference.

Does it stay, or is it a look at the Republicans say, look at they had so much fun going on over on the Democratic side.

That's why everybody showed up.

Can they keep that going till November?

Well, they're sure going to try.

Look, primary turnout i no index for general election.

Turnout.

This is a special group of people that vote in primaries, right?

Oh absolutely.

It is.

Right?

Yeah, but it's a good indicator for the Democrats.

If I were the Democrats right now, I'd feel damn good.

Well you'd played as hard as you can, but the Rs are going to play it down.

So you hang on Things are going to get better.

They can play it down, but it's not going to work.

All right.

Well there we are, boys and girls.

Another one in the can.

Thank you all for being here guys.

And thank you for voting last week.

If you did.

And, tune in next week for more Off the Record right here.

See you then.

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Learn more at bellwetherpr.com.

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