♪ Music Playing ♪ >> Good evening and welcome to this "AZ Votes 2024" 2024 special edition of "Arizona horizon" I am Ted Simons, tonight we bring you the latest results of today's primary election.

, we will analyze those results.

And we will do so with our guests, Chuck coughlin, president and CEO of the consulting firm high ground.

And Karl gentiles of the gentiles agency.

All right, gentlemen, good to have you both here, holy smokes have we been going over the numbers.

Chuck cole well start with you before we crunch some numbers.

Initial thoughts.

>> Typically speak, the most extreme candidates win in primary elections.

And I think we are seeing that tonight.

In multiple instances on the lake, Lamb, you know, I should say I am surprised but I am not how close the race became and how difficulty Kari lake has had in terms of assembling a coalition.

>> Karl, initial thoughts.

>> Yeah, I think Chuck is right.

There is in the primary, you've got the most extreme candidates that will typically win.

That's been the case on the Republican side as we have seen.

In Maricopa counts the recorders race we'll talk about, looks like richer is going down in defeat.

Which was -- I think somewhat expected in a Republican primary.

But broadly, there is some interesting races still going on the CD3 race is still going on that's about a thousand votes, CD1.

A lot more to come.

Let's start with the U.S. senate race and Republican primary.

Kari Lake and mark Lamb, you can see it lake with 13 points.

Chuck are you surprised at all at the margin?

>> Yeah.

I shouldn't say I am surprised I told a couple of write these week this is what it would be.

Most people thought she would get in the high 50sand 60s.

I didn't think that.

There was a lot of funding for Lamb that came in late from American encore and others she's been having a rough time ever since her debacle with the Republican party chairman and getting rid of him.

Where she got booed at the state convention, she's having a hard timed.

>> What does this mean for Rubén Gallego, these numbers?

>> I think it's a great sign for Rubén.

It's an even worse sign for care Kari lake, mark Lamb took 203,000 votes from her.

She is going to lose a lot of those votes going into the general election.

Rubén Gallego is heavily -- well, maybe not heavily, but he's pretty well favored in this election so far.

And I think this is just a point that says that he's got a good shot winning this senate race.

>> I want to go through some other races and turn it around toward the end hear.

CD8.

Debby Lesko's seat in the west valley.

Holiday and Blake masters.

I don't know who trump really supports in this one.

He's got a winner.

[ Laughter ] You know.

He's got number one and two.

>> That's a good trump.

I wonton.

>> There you go.

>> He can say he wonton.

You know, everybody at the beginning of the race thought Abe with the trump endorsement would succeed.

Masters spent a lot of late money and got a late trump endorsement.

Very late.

But masters spent a lot of money damaging Abe.

It became a very bitter contest.

And so I am quite frankly surprised that he's done this well and survived.

But, you know, that's a winner in the way we run elections, meet your next Arizona congressman from district 8.

>> He's there for life if he wants it.

>> Yep.

>> 6 points, Karl are you surprised by that in.

>> I am a bit.

Mast hers a ton of money, put 3 million of his own dollars, he didn't raise a lot of money, Abe Hamadeh ran a very apparently a good race against a very well funded.

>> The next Pam shows Ben tomorrow arc most folks thought he had a shot out here.

He's in third place here, Chuck.

And it's not going to happen.

>> No.

I mean, he had the endorsement of the sitting congresswoman, Debby Lesko.

He had the endorsement.

Former governor brewer.

A little probably not the funding that he needed to get that message out.

And so in the face of a stiff head wind with the trump endorse.

, the amount of money that was spent by masters, everything fighting an uphill battle.

>> An turn KERN is way back there.

>> Maybe he's still storming the Capitol.

I don't know.

He's certainly not in this race.

>> He won't be in the Capitol anymore.

>> Right.

Where he don't have to worry about that my more.

>> He's a nonstart in this race.

>> CD1 the Democrat taking on David Charlotte the Republican running unopposed.

CD1, well, basically the leader is not here on this Pam.

These are the also rans, right?

Go to the next panel here and we'll look at Shaw, he is the leader, is he not?

>> Yes.

what happened to all of the big names, Chuck?

>> He's a big name.

Back to what I said at the beginning.

The guy is the most liberal hard working candidate in the field.

Shah was a state legislator, an emergency room physician, good reputation at legislature and a reputation for work his tail off and knocking on a lot of doors when you only need 15,000 votes to get ahead you can knock on that many doors.

>> Cherny and o'Callaghan you couldn't avoid his emails.

>> I think I got probably three pieces of mail a week from shah alone.

He ran an incredible campaign.

He's been known forever for his hard work, door knocking.

In the middle of the summer knocking on doors.

>> Yeah.

>> Without, you know, without fail.

So that doesn't surprise me that he's done so well.

>> And I think the thing we are not talking about a high turn out race either.

That's something everybody should think about the overall turnout in this race.

It's not high.

Particularly on the Democratic side.

It's not a high volume turn out.

>> So for somebody like shah that favors him for sure.

>> Last question on the race.

Does shah have a chance against David?

Congress David Schweikert.

>> I think he does, congressman Schweikert has won by about 3,000 votes and shah will out work anybody on the planet coming to this congressional race.

I think there is a good opportunity that Schweikert might fall.

>> Is this the result that -- what does Schweikert think of these results?

>> I think he's fine with it.

I think he knew he would face a credible Democratic opponent and he will have a massive fight on his hands.

I think shah will bring him that challenge.

And he'll be able to try to establish his Republican base coalition and add to it.

That district is a very competitive district.

Not the district that it used to be.

>> All right.

Karl we'll go to you this is a Democratic race here, proven en Gallego congress the district three and interesting, I thought, you know, I am sorry and Terán a two-horse race here.

And Ansari, 4 points.

Was there that much separation all along?

>> It's a tight race from the beginning.

We can see right now, Ansari is up by about, what is that 2,000 votes.

I still expect that to close a little bit.

It's been a knock down drag out fight between the two of them.

Raquel being a community organizers for many years, I think she would do as well as she is.

And I thought she would do even better.

Ansari, a lot of money.

A lot of outside money in this election.

A toss you would we'll wait and see.

>> Back to the axiom the most liberal person Raquel was the Democratic party chairman.

Endorsed by Mark Kelly.

She had most of the organized labor support that institutional place.

Yasmine comes at it from a different perspective.

I more activist, liberal per special it tiff and as Karl said got some significant funding from some Bitcoin and other outside interests to flow into her campaign.

She had the support of some of the development community here as well.

Being a Phoenix -- former Phoenix city Council woman and had a good reputation of being sort of on the outside of the mayor's coalition at the city of Phoenix.

She is typically seen as a more liberal member, more progressive member than maybe Raquel was.

>> And a relative newcomer to the scene.

And by the way, behind the scenes, there is this fight between who is getting most MAGA money and they were trying to separate themselves.

Distance themselves from the money coming in from Republicans to help fund it.

>> Which Democrat is getting the most MAGA mountain?

I never thought that would be a headline here.

>> Especially in this one.

>> CD4 for the opportunity to take on Greg tan Stanton here in congress a four-way race among Republicans looks like Kelly Cooper is ahead there.

I don't know, Chuck, Kelly Cooper it's his to lose right now.

>> It is his race to lose that's a steep uphill climb in the general lex.

That district appears to be a competitive district.

It's not.

It's heavily favored Democratic strict and Mr. Stanton in the fall should be favored to win that seat.

>> The other candidates, Dave games and Davidson not putting up -- Dave got more than some expected here.

>> He's been around a while.

>> He's always running, he's always there.

>> He's annual of Landon and a constitution -- copy of the constitution in his coat pocket.

CD6, this is Juan, something that people looking, but this is never was a really race, was it?

>> I don't think so.

Kathleen winn, former, you know, in the Attorney General's Office when Tom horn was there, you know, sort of a very far right wing candidate.

Ciscomani and district has done a great job well related.

It will be with crystal Engel the Democratic nominee and that will be something we'll be watching in November.

>> Does Engel have a chance?

>> I think she does a lot of money will be poured into this race this go around.

Ciscomani has quite the campaign in has second run as well.

This is not a surprise Kathleen winn, you know, I am surprised she got that many votes in all honesty.

>> Interesting.

A lot of people were interested in this here in Maricopa count it's county recorder's race and Steven richer who a lot of people are familiar with.

And has done his best to try to talk about election integrity and how this, that, the other.

He is lose to Justin heap, Chuck.

>> Yes, he is.

This is part and parcel of the Republican primary.

The Republican party's challenge right now.

On election denialism.

Not that heap is has come out and totally thrown all of the 2020 and '22 lexes under the bus, raised a lot of questions about that.

Steven was seen as a defender of Maricopa county and the election system as he was operating it in the last cycle.

And so he had to take on that contemporary attitude where Republican primary voters are.

What we see here is not surprising.

To me that heap has succeeded.

But now you will see a very, very competitive general election with just as we saw the race flip when Adrien Fontes won it against our last county recorder.

And then got back and Steven beat him in the next cycle.

>> Yes.

>> You may see a very vigorous campaign on the Democrat side to take the seat.

>> Physical Justin mean holds organization, does Steven richer campaign for Justin heap?

Does will he campaign for the Democratic candidate?

>> That would be nice, yes.

>> But what do you think some.

>> I can say this, the Democratic candidate was being fairly critical of Steven richer during this campaign.

>> That's not very smart.

>> It's not a bright move on his part.

So maybe there is fence mends to go do there.

I doubt that Steven richer given his proclivities in challenges that he had if face during cycle that he will support Justin heap.

>> Do you agree with that, Karl?

>> I would love to see him support the damn Katic candidate.

I don't know if that's -- that mating a bridge too far for Mr. Richer.

>> But not Marching and shouting for Justin heap?

>> No, I don't see happening at all.

He's top on the list of election denialism if he gets in who knows what he will be looking at in terms of the election process.

Let's just hope when it comes down to the general election that we have our candidate, Democratic candidate prevails.

>> Maricopa count sheriff.

We've got Frank milstead a familiar name, Jerry Sheridan kind of familiar.

Mike raw Ford not as familiar as others and Jerry Sheridan is running away with this, Chuck?

>> He was an action light of the former sheriff, Mr. Arpaio, was part of his administration.

He brings that relationship with him.

To this race.

And so he has that relational angle.

Milstead a former DPS director worked with governor Ducey had a long career in law enforcement.

It's a competitive race.

But you can see you can see where they are going.

>> What about the Democrats.

You have a couple of options there.

Camp is going to hold on to that thing.

Does camp have a chance against any Republican opponent?

>> It's going to be tough.

I think camp brings a great book of experiences that will make this a very competitive race.

This is one of the races that Maricopa county Democrats have targeted and wanted to make sure that Tyler made it through the primary Russ Skinner weeks before the -- before he changed to Democrat.

It made him difficult to pick up the Democratic support.

Tyler camp is looking pretty good going into the general election.

>> Russ was part of the former sheriff's command staff.

>> Right.

>> He switched to get -- in order for The county appoint somebody to that they had to be a member of that party.

He switched as Karl just said and apparently didn't convince enough Democrats in this cycle that, headache I am one of you.

Despite the former sheriff's support of him.

>> You keep mentioning the former sheriff.

He did run for mayor of fountain hills and got all of 13%.

Is this the end of the Joe Arpaio political machine?

>> We should hope so.

He is about, what, about a hundred years old now.

Maybe this is his swan song.

>> As long as there is breath in the lungs Ted, we'll see him.

But I was speaking to our Mr. Penzone.

>> I am sorry.

When I heard former sheriff.

>> You immediately jump.

He was part of Penzone's command staff.

>> Penzone, as far as that Democrats and Penzone, any coattails, anything at all there on Democratic side?

>> Hard to say.

Penzone is extremely popular.

I don't know if Penzone would make an endorsement that would help.

Camp could use the support going into what traditional had I a very -- although we did have Penzone the last cycle or two.

Traditionally a very heavily Republican seat.

>> Yeah, I -- my experience with the former sheriff is -- >> Which former sheriff.

>> Penzone.

>> Okay.

>> That -- [Speaking at the same time] >> That he has declined to participate in most critical things anymore.

He's sort of cleaned his hands of the whole thing.

He's on got Hawai'i a great job and has a great life and doesn't want to be a part of this scene anymore.

>> On his second career -- or third career.

We'll let him go do that.

We don't have the numbers up on the screen as far as the slate sledge late I have races but mark Finchem is beating Ken Bennett in district one and he's beating him by 7 points.

Chuck, what happened here?

>> Well, back to the top of the show.

>> Extreme candidate.

>> Back to the extreme show.

Mark Finchem was a carpet bagger and the seat moved up there to run against senator Bennett former secretary of state Bennett.

Former senate president Bennett.

Ken has a long record.

Ken has sort of been a person in the state senate who has not Marched lockstep with the Republican majority.

And I think what Mr. Finchem did was probably use his credential as a former trump endorsed candidate for secretary of state, and his far right associations to diminish Mr. Bennett and I think that's the show.

>> And Karl, when you see that kind of a result and you also see Wendy rock who's made a lot of headlines for not necessarily the best of reasons up 7 points against David cook, what from a Democratic perspective, what does this tell but the Republican party right now?

>> It tells us that the Republicans haven't gotten off of this January 6th or their election denialism.

And I think that's a wide open opportunity to Democrats in the general election to use as a campaign strategy against them.

I think that will go across the board on the Democratic side.

When you take a look at these individuals like mark Finchem who is at the Capitol on January 6th and very public about all of his efforts there, I think that's going to be a very strong strategy for the Democrats because democracy is on the table for this election.

So we'll see.

It's a real opportunity for a Democrat to breakthroughs.

>> Finchem will be state senator, though, no question about that.

>> Right.

>> That district one is Yavapai county, it's heavily, deeply red.

It is one of the most red.

I think about Mojave county, you think about Yavapai county.

>> Right.

>> These are Republican seats.

>> Let's think about district 7, Walt blackman looks like he's returning to the legislature here.

With he had Mr. Slayton.

>> The trump store in show low.

>> Wendy Rodgers endorsed, wendy Rogers did pretty well.

Slayton not so much.

>> Yeah.

You know, he had a problem of his narrative with I always thought was going to be a problem up there.

I mean, you don't go around claiming veteran status.

He had a stolen valor problem about talking about his military career.

Which brought into question up there.

Mr. Blackman was a former state legislature, ran for congress last time.

>> Yep.

>> Was a very conservative African American Republican from that area.

And so I thought this was what was going to happen.

>> Yes, please.

>> I think name I.D.

helped blackman in that race.

>> Yeah.

>> Clearly because he's been around for quite sometime.

>> Karl, as far as a couple of races here with the county, the supervisors district two, Thomas Galvin, big league over Michelle Rita.

Is that a surprise that it was that big I've lead?

>> It isn't to me.

I think galvan generally has been relatively successful in that seat and Michelle trying to unseed him.

I am not surprised by that at all.

>> At will have people were concerned for Mr. Galvin in that race.

Miss ugenti Rita had a difficult campaign psych will numerous stories that went to back to her reg legislative career with inappropriate relationships with lobbyists and belly shots and she had a story about her divorce and a real estate transaction problem and she could never find her footing and was never really a truly MAGA candidates.

She was not going along with our colleagues on the audit when she was a state senator.

>> Mark Stewart is MAGA enough to just trounce Yacksel nurse district one.

>> That is true.

That's east valley district.

He's the chairman of the Maricopa count board of supervisors right now.

Been a member of that board for sometime.

This was a close -- this was always anticipated to be a tough race.

The councilman from Chandler, has defeated him.

And now there will be a very competitive general election, Joel Navarro, firefighter, Tempe, vice mayor, and will be running against -- and that's going to be something to watch in the general.

>> Does Rachel Mitchell, ahead of Gina here, as far as the Maricopa county attorney is concerned.

Does she have a challenge on the Democratic side or pretty much hers to lose.

>> Tamika Wooten is the Democratic candidate and so she's going to Mount a very strong campaign.

Rachel Mitchell has a long history.

And a long history of the seat.

It might be challenging for Tameka wasn't.

Rachel has raised good money, Tameka needs to raise more money and it's going to come down to turn out if Democrats can actually turn out enough voters to make that difference up.

>> I am going to respectfully disagree with my colleague.

I am going pull the Al Mccoy, you can put this in the deep freeze.

>> Yeah.

>> Rachel has done a good job as the county prosecutor.

And the attacks from the left Maricopa county is still center right county still.

You know, not a very progressive place.

I think she's well positioned to win a general election.

>> So give me a headline for tonight.

I mean, my first impression on seeing some of these things is that the Republican party may not exist anymore.

It is the MAGA party.

Am I off base here, Chuck?

>> Nope.

That's 100 percent true.

It's 100 percent true.

The party of Doug Ducey the party that was Jan brewer's party.

The party that goes back decades is no longer instruction trailly exists in Maricopa county anymore.

And it's, you know, that center right business friendly low regulation, Democrat has been overcome with this cultural conservatism that now dominates Republican primary politics.

>> Left side of the aisle.

Is this -- whose party is this?

Is this Kamala Harris's party now?

Is she building that or what's going on out there?

>> There is no question this is Kamala Harris's party now going forward and she has a very good chance to win Arizona.

And of course, Maricopa county.

And so I think you'll see a lot of coattails riding on that much it's a very competitive, very competitive county and state now.

You know, we'll have to wait and see if Mark Kelly gets selected as VP it might make a huge difference as well it's Kamala Harris's party definitely.

>> Last question quickly before we go.

Did Republicans do themselves any favors tonight or did Republicans hand a lot of things off to Democrats?

>> You got a gun I can shoot myself in the foot.

That's what they did to themselves tonight.

You know, the Kari Lake nomination the nominee -- I believe The county recorder nomination is going to be in jeopardy.

The defeat of Jack in the east valley opens the door for Joel.

The sill thing in the general election.

A Democratic perception of what Maricopa county is.

>> Yeah.

The farther right the Republicans run the better for Democrats in the general lex.

>> Democrats are poised to win.

>> Yes.

>> Doing back flips or other gymnastics moves.

>> Gymnastics.

>> Okay.

>> But I think -- do pour borrow a phrase from my good friendly think Democrats will stick the landing in the general.

>> Simone biles double backflip twist, hang, hit it.

>> Thank you, thank you so much.

Great stuff.

That is it for now.

I think a Ted Simons, thank you so much for joining us.

You have a great evening.

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