Welcome to Beyond the Ballot, presented by Lehigh Valley News.com and the Greater Lehigh Valley Chamber of Commerce.

Good evening and welcome.

The 2023 election is in the books and tonight we'll speak with some of the key players.

I'm Jen Rehill, news director for Lehigh valley news.com.

We're delighted to bring you this program in partnership with the greater Lehigh valley chamber of commerce.

Hear from the University Public Media Center in Bethlehem.

A little later, we'll look ahead to 2024 and the big races for president and congress.

Politics reporter Tom shortall will speak with political scientist and Muhlenberg College professor Chris Borick.

But first, let's talk about November 7th election that just happened.

Here to speak with our guest is Toni Inelli, host of the Channel 69 program Business Matters and president and CEO of the Greater Lehigh Valley Chamber of Commerce.

Hi.

Thank you so much, Jen.

Thank you to all of you that have showed up tonight.

Thank you so much.

What a great crowd.

A great crowd out there.

My first guests, Northampton County, Lamont McCord.

Good.

So, so good to see you, Lamont.

I just want to first ask you, you're obviously a committed Democrat.

You've got to be pretty happy with this election.

Well, you know, as a partizan, I am.

But as the leader of Northampton County, I'm actually quite angry.

While I can say to you tonight that everyone who voted in Northampton County on the seventh, their vote was counted, and we've looked at the numbers of folks who turned out in 2023 and compared to to 2021.

And we feel very confident that the vast majority of people who wanted to vote on Election Day got to vote in Northampton County.

We're very confident in that.

However, I am very angry if even one person was turned away from the ballot and didn't come back to vote.

That's the county's fault.

And we are right now investigating what we can do to make sure that doesn't happen again in the future.

And I'll tell you why, Tony.

There are a lot of people that think democracy is on the ballot in 2024.

I don't I happen to think our republic is more resilient than some folks do, but a lot of people don't agree with me.

They think democracy is on the ballot in 2024.

And one of the reasons I'm so perturbed is this gives credence to all the people who want to unbalance our democracy, who do want to see our democracy fail.

And so we need to be perfect in Northampton County.

Like I said, everybody who voted on Election Day, their vote counted.

And we believe the vast majority of people who wanted to vote in Northampton County did vote that day.

But still even small errors that could contribute potentially to the undermining of our democratic process, that that makes me very angry.

So I'd like someone with a good legal background like you went right to that.

So when you say you're perturbed, who at who?

I guess the question is, well, so it was a breakdown it at our vendor since it was a coding mistake, a clerical error.

So the votes that were recorded on the machine were accurate, such that when they got uploaded at the end of the night, the right votes went to Jack Piniella in his retention race and the right votes went to Unfortunately, during the day when the card was printed out, the backup paper ballot, their names were flipped because of a clerical error that was committed in Omaha.

That's crazy.

And that person should be fired.

So a little bit of time.

I have.

So two questions with that.

I guess, again, one, that when you heard of this, you must have been like, are you kidding me?

Here we go again.

And for those who are already looking for a reason to say rigged elections or whatever, what do you want to talk about going forward, I guess, is the point to get this rectified?

Well, first of all, I'm very confident going forward that let's say there's an election challenge.

Something occurs in Northampton County, 2024, and there's an election challenge.

I believe in court.

We could demonstrate that the voters intention was captured on that machine and properly recorded and that their vote counted.

I'm very confident that.

But we can't even have the perception that a voter's vote might be in some way adulterated.

We've got to be nearly perfect.

And you know what?

We have an antecedent for this.

In 2019, we had problems, and in 2020 we had a nearly flawless presidential election.

That's how I know heading into 2024, we can with this system and this vendor put on a flawless election, but we can't We're having clerical errors and I describe them as lazy.

Yeah, yeah.

It's not lazy.

It's a lack of imagination.

That's what occurred.

A lack of imagination in Omaha.

At ENSS place there warehouse, if you will, and a lack of imagination on our election staff.

And we will be holding them accountable as well.

Well, you're looking for a new vendor.

Would that be part of what you're looking at?

So you're going into 2024.

All options are on the table.

If we wouldn't, we wouldn't be prudent.

We wouldn't be doing our job if we weren't investigating other systems.

Here's the problem.

There's a learning curve with a new system.

Sometimes the devil you know is better than the devil you don't.

So we know that we'll have to retrain all the judges of elections and poll workers on a new system.

And then the voters will have to get used to a new system.

And I'm not sure anybody thinks the wisest course of action is to introduce a new system in 2024.

I know you will.

And I can tell you your anger level, our anger level, when this happened on a 1 to 10, were you at about a 300 that went right through the roof because there was absolutely no excuse for it.

The the ballot went back and forth 15 times from Omaha to our election staff.

Somebody should have caught this.

Gotcha.

Well, thank you so much, Lamont.

I appreciate it.

I appreciate going right at it.

And and sharing with the audience both at home and here.

We're going to bring up Glenn Geisinger from the Republican Party in Northampton County.

So let's get cracking up and we can get moving on that.

Thank you so much.

You're welcome.

Thank appreciate it.

Glenn.

You're supposed to run up full speed ahead.

All right, Glenn, I guess the question would have to be, as the Republican Party chair, if you use the broad based term, are you buying what Lamont sell on, I guess.

Not one bit.

Not one bit.

You know, it really it's amazing that the guy who says he's really perturbed should look in the mirror because it's ultimately his responsibility.

County executive has a lot of responsibilities.

I understand that.

But his first and foremost one on Election Day is to make sure that the election runs properly.

What are you hearing from your your group, your constituents?

And is it just are you hearing from Republicans and Democrats?

I'm hearing it from both parties.

Matter of fact, I've already got 70 sworn affidavits in excess of 70 of individuals who said, you know what, I was either turned away, I had an issue, something I don't want to standpoint from your perspective, people were, in fact, turned away.

Absolutely.

Absolutely.

People have people have told us that they they were told come back later, come back later, that that is absolutely unacceptable.

So where do you go from here, then?

I want to get to the election.

But where do you go from here?

Where do we go from here?

We're going to continue to pursue our options.

We're looking at a lot of different things as we continue to gather the necessary information.

All right.

So, hey, let's get back to election.

It wasn't the greatest night for the Republicans by any stretch of the imagination.

Your thought, I mean, is there how much of a movement as a party have to make to to get back on track, if you will?

I think, quite frankly, when you look at it from a national standpoint, what was reflected in Northampton County was reflected across the Commonwealth and across all of the United States.

We need to understand that the people need to get the message of what the Republican Party is really all about.

And we're not doing a very good job of that at any level.

Do you do you think its candidates are policy?

I guess I'm trying to get to the point where when you gather and say, hey, you know, it was a rough night, where do we go from here?

Candidates or are some policy take Roe v Wade.

I mean, this was at heart was that a big hump in terms of getting over?

I definitely think that the abortion issue, the Roe v Wade decision is definitely something is playing in it all levels.

I mean, we have we have candidates running for local office, for city council, for your school board township supervisor.

And that is a question they're being asked when they knock the door.

They have no influence on that.

But but the voter wants to know, where do you stand on that important issue?

I've heard people from the Republican Party say mail in ballots, maybe they could do better at that or or would like to see that disappear in the real world, which isn't going to happen.

Your thoughts on mail.

We absolutely need to do better in mail, in ballots.

We absolutely need to do better.

I mean, we have found that even with the with the machine malfunctions in 2019 and now again in 2023, that the mail in ballot system, we need to work better at making sure that our low propensity voters are turning out the way that the Democrat low propensity voters are.

Yeah.

So how do you mean?

There's been discredit in terms of I mean, I guess.

Well, let me ask this.

What would be your primary focus going forward to sort of get this next cycle, say, perform better?

Well, in 2024, I think we're going to have a much different opportunity.

You know, we have found that you're going to see, instead of a 32%, 33% turnout, you're going to see a 75, 80% turnout.

So we know that right away people are going to be much more engaged, which is unfortunate.

It is unfortunate that those these elections, these local elections don't turn people out the way that the national elections do.

But we're going to we know that that's going to happen.

So we feel good about that.

Do you think with a 14 or 15%, sometimes you or 5% that's in the middle that could be pulled either side?

Do you think the party has to move a little bit from center, a little bit left, or do you think do you think the party is in a great position?

Because I think the party is actually in the position that the American people are.

You know, 80% of the people in America actually coincide with the Republican position on abortion, meaning that we understand that there need to be exceptions in certain places.

We understand that as a party, there need to be things that allow for a woman's right up to a certain point, up to a certain point, you know.

But the idea of the Democrat idea of being able to abort a baby right up to conception, right up to birth is not acceptable to most.

Before I lose you, I got to ask on the presidential side.

I mean, what do you hear?

I mean, what are your hope?

What my hope is that regardless of who comes out of our nominating process, that they are that we unite behind that individual.

We make sure that we move forward as one party with one voice, to make sure that we put a Republican in the White House in 2012.

Glenn Geisinger, thank you so much.

Appreciate it.

Thank you for being here.

Thank you.

All right, Gavin Houlihan, come on up here.

Come on up from this.

The DA's office.

And it's Holahan, by the way, Tony, in case you're wondering.

Correct.

Thank you.

I apologize for getting it wrong.

We'll practice that next time.

Gavin, first of all, congratulations.

Thank you.

Ran unopposed and and still won.

But I guess the question I want to ask you, you're really taking the place of Jim Martin, who has had an incredible storied career and a long career.

Is that pressure for you?

I don't think so.

He's been there 20, going to be 26 years and just a couple of weeks.

So he's done a lot.

He's actually not much pressure because of how much he's done.

He's really laid the groundwork for me.

It's going to be fairly easy to step in and continue some of the positive things he's done.

I one of the things I like about your work, where you've been in terms of your experience, it's on you were a trial lawyer and you were a actually worked in the public defender's office.

So you've seen both sides.

And do you think that helps you become a better D.A.?

absolutely it does.

It does.

I've seen both sides, not just from the human perspective, I've seen both sides of seeing people who fail and commit crimes, but can also come back from that and be better people, but also in the courtroom, learning the skills from both sides.

So, you know, I'm in the office now working as the first assistant, countless opportunities to help mentor the prosecutors about how to handle a case better and what to anticipate when they go up against some of our better defense attorneys in the in the county.

Well, so this show is beyond the ballot.

I know.

Not a huge party guy per se.

I mean, you're a Republican, but what?

I like that.

I'm a Republican.

Yeah, you're a big party guy.

Okay.

So what are your thoughts?

What are your feelings on on the election?

Yeah, well, I think in Lehigh County, Democrats fare much better than the Republicans.

However, it's Republicans who can get the job done, who can communicate effectively to what needs to be done.

So, you know, the district attorney's office, I ran unopposed as a Republican in our sheriff's office.

Johanna ran unopposed as a Republican.

So those are two good examples of people who can communicate their ability to get the job done well.

And I think the more that the Republican Party can find candidates like that, they're going to find success.

So it's the ability you know, I don't see it as a Republican, as a Democratic thing.

I find that competent candidates, qualified candidates can easily win on the Republican ticket.

So.

So you don't think it's policy, Do you think if you have a strong candidate, they can get you to the finish line?

without question.

I think we've seen that.

Is there a policy that you would like to see?

I'm certainly going to be in the DA's office, and I sense that you're going to have, you know, 21st century.

It's different in terms of what had to happen from a legal perspective, What would be different about you and your administration to use that term, different than Jim Martin Yeah, I think I'm more focused on gun violence, particularly, and violent crime.

I'm not, I would say more harsh.

We can identify repeat offenders and I know there's a big push for reentry and to try to be more lenient, I think the pendulum is swinging back toward it a little bit more leniency.

But I see violent crime, very serious crime.

I see the victimization and violent crime, and we see repeat offenders who continue to get out and commit additional offenses.

And yet I see that they are still getting plea agreements and getting sentences.

For instance, our sentencing guidelines are changing and those aren't done by a prosecutor's offices.

Those are done by statewide agencies.

And the sentencing guidelines are getting lower.

So we can anticipate lower sentences just across the board by what our state has done.

But that means to me that we have to prosecute those cases more harshly, give fewer plea agreements.

And some of those cases are going to go to trial to get those higher sentences because there are genuinely people who need to be punished, need to be removed from society because they're committing violent crimes.

And every violent crime commit creates a victim, But it also creates a ripple effect in the community that makes the community unsafe.

Every victim, if they have family members, they feel unsafe, and that needs to be addressed.

So I think our plan is to address those things much more harshly.

While than taking people on the other end of the spectrum, as I talk about the people who kind of stumble into the criminal system and don't really need to be in that system yet, we spend a lot of time, money and energy on people who are committing minor offenses, first time offenders.

I believe we can cycle those people out of the system much more quickly and efficiently.

That's kind of where I was going to be.

I think.

I don't hear it for you as tough or you need to be tough.

Where do you see maybe being in this 21st century, a little more leniency, marijuana issues or those kinds of things?

I think marijuana is a good example of things that we now spend a lot of time, energy and money pursuing and prosecuting that we probably don't need to.

And those savings can then be invested on the harsher.

And so it's not a it's not something that really will cost a whole lot more money.

It's just a reallocation of resources.

So we have people who are arrested with marijuana and maybe smoking device for marijuana.

We put them on probation for six, eight, nine, 12 months.

We don't need to do that.

That costs money and it really doesn't do much.

Welcome and thank you for your time.

Appreciate it very, very much.

And Stephen Barrata if you could join us up, former judge Judge Stephen Barrata, from my perspective, come on up, All right.

We're on the day circuit here.

So, you know, I was thinking, I want to say to you, we can't keep you.

You know, when you love the courtroom, whether it's a judge or, you know.

So what made you say how many years were you a judge?

25, 25 years.

What made you say, I want I want more of this, but of the other side and from a perspective of, well, I love being a judge, but at the same time, I wasn't happy with what was going on in the DA's office.

I thought we needed change.

Someone had to step up.

I was at a point in my career when I thought I could make a difference in the courthouse, so I decided to step down and run.

Did you get any pushback from running against someone in your own party?

You know, it was that was really a primary was the whole thing.

And what was your thinking while you said, hey, I'm doing this?

Understandably, the party didn't really support me, Progressive PACs didn't support me, the unions didn't support me.

I ran on my own because they believed that I shouldn't have been running in a Democratic primary against an incumbent.

But what was it about you?

I mean, I know your personality is a tough, very strong personality, something told you we needed change.

That's why.

And I thought I was the guy to do it.

What is that change from your perspective?

Well, first of all, the day I was underperforming, the trial record wasn't good.

It was almost a coin flip between guilt or innocence when you walked into the courtroom.

So I believe the community was very underserved because there are many cases.

There should have been convictions.

There weren't convictions.

The morale in the office wasn't good.

We were losing good days, were leaving the office because they weren't happy.

And then there are also some social justice issues that I thought strongly about too, that I wanted to make part of my campaign.

But it was really about performance and really about accountability.

Let's talk a little about that.

You just heard from Gavin and what might change what might change, I guess, in terms of leniency, if you want to use that term, or you might where you think it might be tougher, just your thoughts on where the D.A.

protects the community.

25 years as a judge, I wasn't known to be lenient with regard to my sentences.

I hold people accountable.

I'm going to do the same thing as a D.A.

What's important, though, is that we're fair.

Things like cash bail for low level offenders, not fair, because people that don't have the economic resources oftentimes sit in jail until the case is resolved.

And when it's a minor case, they're serving their sentence sometimes longer than their sentence.

When they're finally having their case resolved, it shouldn't be that way.

That's a social justice issue.

I feel strongly about.

I'm not against cash.

Bail is very appropriate when there's high risk offenders, very serious cases.

Bills are important, but a $5,000 bill, 20 $500 bail for someone who doesn't have the resources means they stay in jail when anyone else with a reasonable bank account can get out and be on the street until their case is resolved.

That's not fair.

So yeah, it's interesting you having run in the primary.

What are your thoughts on the election as a post election show and what are your thoughts on what you saw?

Well, as a politician, my thoughts are that to the right of women to have control over their body for reproductive health care was a big issue in this election and probably will be next year as well.

So stay tuned.

And from your perspective in this next cycle, same thing.

And and a big winner, that issue going away, at least not now and a big winner for the Democrats, would you say we'll look at Ohio?

Yeah, I was shocked what happened in Ohio.

That says an awful lot for a red state to come out as vociferously as they did against limits on abortion or not limits on abortion.

Making abortion illegal was, I thought, fascinating.

So you've had a great career and you're on a whole new whole new mission, if you will.

Well, I was a lawyer before I became a judge.

Yeah, but day staffing is I, you know, everywhere in the world.

I think the big problem I was going to ask about nine or ten openings right now, and I'm in the process of interviewing people and bringing in.

And if I'm going to have to replace half the staff because the chairs are empty in the office.

Yeah, you get along with Gavin.

Gavin, He's a Gavin, okay?

He's a Republican, you know that?

Well, he made that very clear, I might add.

So I haven't good people, you know, and I'm thankful.

I think we have a lot of good people in this valley.

I guess that's a broad question.

You've spent your life here are your thoughts on this valley and why it's been born and raised in the Lehigh Valley.

I love it here.

I had a great childhood.

I went to Lafayette College.

I went to law school in New York.

FORDHAM But I came back and I worked there.

I love the Lehigh Valley, so well, Judge, thank you for the time you're here now.

But you've been a judge, and I want to make sure I respectfully say that.

Thank you so much.

And we'll bring up Dan Hartzell.

So, Dan, if you're here, come on up.

Thank you.

Dan Hartzell for me.

You're a Democrat, right?

I want to make my way by far.

Yeah, well, I first I want to say for those I know 30 How many?

30 years?

30 some years.

38.

The morning call.

The morning call.

So that's that's a question I would ask you because you've had a good run.

I mean, you've got the most votes.

I think every time you've run is my my first time.

Second, Yeah, second.

Well, close enough.

Do you think your time at the in the press, at the call, if you will, gave you a sort of an understanding and vision what people want it.

Well I think what it gave me was covering municipal government for most of that time I had a feel for it and I think that helped me both get elected because I could pitch that, you know, I've, I actually covered the board as a reporter, the board that I sit on now.

So I sort of knew more about county government than a lot of a newcomer.

First time candidates.

And, you know, the name recognition thing for most of my time at The Morning Call I was just a byline really in the in the Bethlehem section.

So I spent 12 years in the Bethlehem bureau.

And those were in times when nobody even really I don't think people noticed then you were the road warrior.

That's what made the difference for the name recognition.

And the newspaper business had changed to that point where, you know, where I put my picture in the paper, which I thought was crazy at the time, you know, that I was I was an old timer even then.

And, you know, well, they can Photoshop those pictures.

Well, and that was a caricature picture, if you remember, you know.

But when did you say I think I think I'm going to jump in here.

I mean, you know, you could have retired.

You could do whatever.

Well, I left the morning call.

It was retirement.

Yeah.

And I thought maybe I'd pick up some kind of I thought maybe I do freelance.

I thought maybe I'd pick up some kind of part time job.

And then Tom Mueller was the county executive at the time, called and said, hey, we got you know, we got three, four open seats and three Democrats, you know, come on run.

And first I said, no, but, you know, he told me about how great I was, and that works for me every time.

And soon I said, okay, I'll do it.

So as a journalist, your whole life is digging deep into what your thoughts on this election.

I mean, you you have to have serious thoughts on what happened.

Well, I, I was I'll be honest with you.

I was surprised that we the four Democrats, won.

We swept, as they say.

I wasn't expecting that it happened the last time.

I wasn't expecting that.

And I think as some of your other guests were getting to, I think some of these nationwide issues are starting to come to the local level.

And, you know, abortion, one of the biggest ones.

And I think honestly, you know, and I'm a I'm a I'm a no Trump Democrat and I really think Trump ism.

I like to think Trumpism is starting to filter down the sort of nastiness of this guy is starting to filter down to the people who aren't rabid Trump supporters and always will be.

But the, you know, the more moderate, the independent, the independents and more moderate Republicans, I think, are really starting to reject this kind of approach.

Yeah, well, we even saw it in school boards.

Those, you know, really some of these very localized elections.

Your thoughts on that?

Well, exactly.

I think the sort of Moms for Liberty, a pitch certainly did not work for the most part.

You know, certainly in Lehigh County.

Yeah, maybe.

I have to say, you know, I've heard you've been around enough on I think it was Bill Clinton's midterm and then Bush senior and midterm, the writing off both parties.

I remember you know, both parties were.

So before we write the death warrant, you never know.

Politics are funny game and and things could change.

Right?

And then we remember the Ross Perot and we had some some third party candidates and Ralph Nader is still blamed for possibly now putting George Bush and W in power.

So, yeah, who knows?

Does on a national level as a Kennedy candidacy concern you at all?

Obviously.

Okay.

You know, I can't believe he's doing this.

It's like it's it could be like a Nader thing.

Now we're early and what's he polling like?

22% blows my mind.

Yeah.

How about on local level?

One last question.

What what do you see from the commissioner standpoint?

What do you and I really get into and Lehigh County?

Well, Cedar Brooks been my thing from the start.

I want I want to keep those publicly owned.

As Lamont knows Lamont helped defend that that issue 2011, I believe, 12 years ago.

And I want to keep on that.

And as you know, we're we're building a new addition at Cedar Brook, Allentown.

And I certainly want to see that project through.

How is the county, from your perspective?

Fiscally pretty solid.

Pretty good.

Pretty good.

I mean, we just just got an A but a new budget.

Phil's done a good job.

No tax increase.

That's always a good thing.

And I'm thinking, so when you say city block, I know I missed this point.

You are you're saying that we need to make sure that an expansion and make sure that for the elderly that that we're ready and for our senior citizens to make sure they have a place and enough room.

Absolutely, Tony.

I mean, you know, the people that you know, you think you have it covered.

You like to think you have it covered, but something happens in your life.

You end up with not enough or virtually nothing.

Where do you go?

You know, the beautiful places that you see advertised on TV.

Not not everyone can afford that.

Well, they once called it Cedarbrook was once called the poor house.

And it's not the poorhouse anymore, but it's it's a beautiful place.

We got a great staff, and we care for that.

We care for folks at that time in the life of their lives when they certainly deserve.

And your commited to that And I thank you for your service all these years.

So.

Dan Hartzell Thank you.

Colleen Laird Come on up and thanks so much, Colleen.

How are you?

Here's our last guest.

So that must mean you're like when you go to the concert, the big act comes up.

So you're new to this and I get the sense when I read your bio this from you for you is really about lifting up your community and this is your way of doing it.

Yeah, it's about lifting up my community with my community.

And I am really looking forward to the opportunity to lead in my community, but also to increase our civic engagement in general and invite people to the table who might not have felt they had a voice before.

So so our young women or women in general who would like to maybe get into office, you were president of the of the parent teachers group, is that correct?

And I'm presently.

You're still are.

Okay.

So what made you say I'm going to make a leap, I'm going to get into this?

It's not easy.

You know, it's not for the faint of heart.

Yeah.

So I've thought about this on and off over the years.

I've been involved in a number of community organizations and leadership roles.

And honestly, my daughter is the one who really this time tipped me over the edge when I considered it.

She said, Mom, you taught our Girl Scout troop the Democracy in Action badge.

You need to do this.

And so here I am.

That tipped me over the edge.

You have a totally in my correct, totally democratic council, is that correct?

Yes, as well as mayor does.

Is that is that a is that a good thing are too much?

I mean, would you like to see some others from the other party on there for a little bit of balance or not necessarily from your perspective I think that regardless of party diversity of thought is extremely vital.

And if you look at the previous city council votes over the past few months or even years, there's been split votes on some pretty major topics.

So I think that healthy, transparent discourse, really listening to the community, representing the needs of the people that we serve and being true to our voices, regardless of people's party, is what matters.

I was at an event just yesterday to see the mayor, a 2% tax increase, which is, you know, not a large increase.

I mean, depending on who you are and you're paying the bill.

I guess my question is we are supporter of that.

So I actually had seen a miss report that first came out that said that he hadn't proposed any tax increase I will be looking at.

So right now, presently, there is a budget hearing tonight happening in city council.

I'll be watching that video.

I will be picking up the budget booklet and reviewing that to really dig into the details of what that 2.6, I think percent it is would be going towards and if that really is necessary for our community.

I can't answer that without looking into the details of our plan.

But at this point you're not totally sold on it.

You want to see what and why.

I'm never totally sold on anything that I that I only hear the top level on.

I like to dig deep and ask questions is your concern.

I just want to make sure from the people you represent, can they afford this affordability at this time?

Yeah.

Affordable People say 2% might be 50 bucks at 80 bucks.

Is that cavalier?

That's a lot to a lot of people.

Yeah.

And in a time where people can't afford their groceries and where everyone has acknowledged, I think that affordable housing is a huge issue in our area as well as even regionally and nationally.

We really need to look at every single thing and say, is this something that our community can bear?

Yeah.

All right.

Well, thank you so much, Colleen, and your amazing job.

We're so glad that you're here doing and so committed like all the others.

So thank you.

And I also want to say to the audience, let's hear it for all these these there's been incredible group.

I appreciate it and I appreciate the audience.

Well, you are lucky now.

I think two of the most prominent people when it comes to politics in terms of knowledge, these two people, Tom Shortell and Chris Borick.

Incredible.

Chris, you have been every time we're hearing what's happening, I value their time so many years serving as a journalist.

So I'll turn it over to you, Tom, and it's all yours.

Tony Thanks very much, Chris.

Thanks for joining us tonight.

We're really excited to dig into this.

So let's get started.

As some of the guests referenced earlier this election, we saw a lot of national politics seep into the local level.

Moms for Liberty, abortion.

What do you make of the results?

Is that a rejection of those issues?

Yeah, it's a great question, Tom.

And we have seen a broader trend in American politics of nationalization that term, right.

National issues seeping down into every level of government, including local governments, including school boards.

And that was part of the dynamic that we saw in 2023 in these in these elections.

And I think the takeaway on on the broadest level, right, is that a lot of the the national issues like reproductive rights, like some of the school issues that that were there didn't work in vantage of the Republican Party both nationally and locally in a number of these races.

And it it really in many ways aligns with things like turnout and who's showing up in these elections.

One of the most interesting dynamics traditionally, historically, these off year elections were wonderful for the Republican Party voters that were higher educated, older, wealthier, often who aligned with the Republican Party would show up in these races.

And it helped.

Republicans have lots of good cycles.

That's flipped in American politics in many ways.

The people that turn out now are often have some of those same different demographics that I just mentioned, but they're more likely to be Democrat.

And we saw that in 21.

We saw it to a degree in 22, and we definitely saw it again in 23.

One of the big issues that has that was discussed tonight, another kind of change in American politics has been the adoption of mail in ballots.

Republicans talked before this 2023 election how they need to do better.

They need to do better.

The gap is still there.

What do you make of that?

What's what's it going to take for Republicans to kind of close that gap?

Yeah, I think it's a major issue.

We heard it in the previous discussion and I think the Republican Party has recognized this lots of Republican leaders and have taken some, I think, valuable efforts to change the dynamic within their party and convince Republican voters that this is something again, I heard the term low propensity of maybe on the margin you might not vote and this can get you over the line on the margin.

It's a valuable asset for the Republican Party.

The problem is it's going against a lot of messaging that came out over the last few years from high elites within the Republican Party all the way up to former President Trump, who really denounced this method.

So it's a challenge I would not envy being a Republican person in the organization trying to do that messaging.

But I think it's the right move for Republicans to do that.

And we'll see how this year we can have a test to see just how productive those efforts are.

But they're the right move for the Republican Party.

So with a presidential election coming up for the last 35 years or so, we've just seen Republicans win Pennsylvania twice, 2016 and 1988 with George H.W.

Bush.

How much of a swing state are we really?

I mean, you just elected John Fetterman.

Two strong years in a row for Democrats.

Is Pennsylvania really a swing state?

It's a great question.

And I get asked all the time.

And you you have the track record down time about Republicans inability to win most presidential races.

And we've seen over the last decade a really challenging time for Republicans in statewide races.

We just saw Josh Shapiro replace Tom Wolfe.

We have not seen that happen before, where it's same party follows up since we've allowed two terms for four governors to happen.

As you mentioned, two senators that are Democrats right now.

It's it's not been a glorious period for the Republicans statewide.

That being said, I think it's a very competitive state to this day.

2016, former President Trump won Pennsylvania narrowly by under a point 2020.

Current President Biden won by just over a point.

It's about when you look at the array of states that are out there and the margins of victory were right in the center in that level.

We also happen to be one of the largest states, the most important states, in terms of electoral votes in the top five.

You put those two conditions together.

The confluence of this makes it a very competitive state and one that you're going to see all kinds of attention in 2024 paid to the to the Lehigh Valley and State.

So now 2023 is out of the way.

I know you're still probably still researching, digging in deep at some of the results and what to make of it.

Are there any lessons that you found that people should be keeping in mind with the campaigns in 2024?

Yeah, it's interesting to compare races when you when you do this, Tom, in many ways it's a little apples and oranges.

We talked about turnout, right?

I heard before you get a 30, 32% turnout versus a 65, 70% turnout, that itself is a different ecosystem.

A presidential election is a different ecosystem, an issue like reproductive rights.

We've seen it be potent for Democrats in the last few cycles.

And I think, as I heard before, a few individuals say that it certainly will be part of the environment, electoral environment in 2024.

It might not have the same dominant role presidential elections themselves that the individuals that will be running, we'll see who emerges.

But you imagine that that race itself dictates a lot of what goes on.

World affairs, as we've seen, could could enter into this economic events.

And it really moves around the ordering of issues and saliency for voters.

And so while for Democrats, sure, I would look at the last cycle and say that was a really good cycle, don't get too full of yourself in terms of saying, well, this will simply roll in for Republicans.

I think looking back at this and not taking lessons is a danger to say.

I think that's something that the Republican Party has as part of the reasons why we've seen it struggle in statewide races and many other races is the inability not to learn.

We talked about the the mail in registration.

If you're not learning from that by now, that's a party problem, right?

That's a party challenge.

So before we move on and start talking about the presidential election 2024, we want to open the floor up to our audience.

If you guys have any questions for Professor Borick about the 2023 municipal elections, now's a chance to hear it.

We like to turn it over to the floor.

Just raise your hand if you have a question for Professor Boric Don't be shy.

Yes, go ahead.

Although there's an idea for the microphone.

So Lehigh Valley News headline was Democrats sweep school District races.

I thought a more appropriate headline would have been Incumbents succeed.

What's your view?

It's a great, great point.

Well, well framed question.

The advantage of incumbency is still very, very strong at all levels in American politics.

And as you note, you might say, you know, and look at the parties and who is in control of that time.

And I'd say that's the starting point often for thinking about who's most likely to win doesn't guarantee you anything.

Candidates, we have folks that have run for office.

You know, it doesn't get you a certainty.

But if I was putting together the factors that will determine the outcome, I usually still start with incumbency.

You've already passed the test, right?

You've been elected and the voters minds.

That's that's powerful.

Anyone else?

Any other questions for Professor Borg?

I'm a professor.

I call on students, so I think you're starting.

Very good.

Well, we'll move on then.

So we're now about to enter what should be a very busy presidential election cycle.

We've already started to see these Republican presidential debates.

How much do these matter?

I mean, President Trump is leading by a really wide margin.

He's not participating.

Is this that's no disrespect, but is this like the JV team that we watch this time?

It's fascinating, right?

And as you could see by my grade, I've been following politics for a long time.

And the dynamics going on right there are so unique.

Right?

We have these debates.

They're they're vigorous debates.

You know, I've tuned into to all of them.

But there's that backdrop, right?

I'm a pollster also.

And you look at the polls.

Right.

And former President Trump is dominating the polls not only nationally in the Republican primary, but in key states like New Hampshire and Iowa.

He has those leads.

And so you have the person that is far and away the dominant figure in the party not there.

And these debates going on simultaneously with with that that standing.

And I'm fascinated to see how the the the rhetoric, the the voice of these candidates is framed with with President Trump in mind.

Right.

None of them have come out other than Chris Christie vehemently against the president and attacking him both, you know, personality wise, characterize on those issues.

They've all kind of danced around it and tried to create their own pitch, if you will, somebody like Nikki Haley.

Right.

Saying that?

Well, you know, President Trump was great for his time.

We're in a different time right now and and trying to find that space to do that with with the eye.

Right.

With the eye, too.

Of course, we recognize President Trump has legal challenges before him.

You know, the circumstances could change as we move into next year and all of those vying to be first in line if that takes place.

Of course, there's also the discussion of first in line to be a running mate, perhaps if president former President Trump does get the nomination.

It's it's surreal in some ways as an analyst to be watching these presidential debates and thinking what what is their endgame.

You mentioned you're a pollster.

Had you been doing any polls regarding President Biden in Pennsylvania or here in the Lehigh Valley?

I know some we've seen some national polls show him struggling a bit.

What's your take on on his poll performance?

Yeah, we are.

We're actually in the field now with a statewide poll, one of our first for the next the next cycle.

But a lot of other pollsters have been looking at Pennsylvania and looking nationally.

And there's no doubt that President Biden has challenges.

His overall approval rating is low.

It's in the forties.

It depends on where you in which poll it is, but certainly not in a in a really great position in matchups against President Trump.

A lot of the polls that shows him trailing in swing states narrowly, you know, it's all within the margin of error and it's a year out, but certainly not in a clearly strong position there on other polling metrics that we look at like concern about his age, we see incredible concern among the electorate about his ability to run as a candidate in his eighties.

Interesting enough, you know, former President Trump, who's in his late seventies, doesn't have that same in the polls.

Not as many people are worried about that age factor there, which is an advantage for former President Trump.

So, yeah, President Biden enters enters the as we get into closer to 2024, certainly.

And precarious position.

And again, we would like to open it up to the floor if anyone has questions for Professor Borick on the 2024 presidential election, specifically, we'd like to hear from you and kind of give you guys an opportunity to pick his brain.

Any hands?

Okay, though, if that's fine.

If we do have one familiar face, he is my star student.

You're always that student I go to, you know, it seems like all incoming presidents have these underperforming approval records.

They run for a second term and they get reelected.

Yes.

Yeah.

It's another great historical artifact, if you will.

So so presidents will say we look at their numbers the year before and we might say, wow, they are in great danger.

They're you know, they're underwater in terms of their numbers but ultimately end up succeeding.

We haven't had many presidents, you know, the last 50 years not winning reelection.

Jimmy Carter, Donald Trump being the the examples, George H.W.

Bush is just an advantage.

Right?

There's so many advantages to being an incumbent at all levels, including the presidency.

And that doesn't mean, again, right now, if people a year out are a little dissatisfied that in the fall of 2024 in circumstances, and then when people think about the matchup right at that time, right.

About about that pairwise comparison between candidates where they'll end up.

So if you're writing in it, I always say this if you're writing obituaries about candidates the year before, you're in a dis really risky position.

And that's actually a perfect segue way to my next question.

As we start looking as we start looking at, I'm sorry, is there another question like, Professor, regarding polling in this day and age, we've learned at our house not to answer the phone unless we know who's calling.

How do you get people these days?

It's a great question, Dan, and I know we won't have enough time to answer all of that through a variety of methods, right.

That we have to use.

Now.

We see if you look at the types of polls that are out there, you see online panels basically that that pollsters have set up by reaching out to people via email and phone, just get them to be part of a panel and then they'll conduct the poll electronically on a on a on a computer.

We still use phone methods, but are predominantly cell phone oriented.

So we'll reach out.

Not as many households have landlines, of course, in 2023, but some do and some still rely on it.

So you have to mix the methods for it it without cutting, cutting the question short, we really could spend a whole show talking about the methodology.

The one thing I'll say, it's very, very challenging right now to reach out.

It's more expensive than ever, time consuming than ever, and to do it right.

Any other questions from other familiar face, please?

So in a day age where you can find information and misinformation all over the place as we go into, you know, what's clearly going to be an election with lots of press coverage, where do you suggest people look to get real authentic?

Of course, public television.

But also, you know, beyond that, where where do you suggest people look to get real matter of fact information?

Yeah, it's it's a fabulous question.

We are inundated with misinformation, fake information, information that's not vetted, not not tested.

So so you kind of set it up a little bit.

I look for more I call them legacy organizations, organizations that have had the track record, that have spent time, that have journalists that are at the top of their profession.

And I could look at things like The Wall Street Journal, I'll look at The New York Times.

Certainly they'll have editorial bent to them, but they're journalist.

I think are wonderful journals on a local level.

As you mentioned, Lehigh Valley News.com I'll start every day.

I'll look at those types of sources to see what's happening on on a local level.

I know there's general there's lots of mistrust with institutions all around right now, including the media.

So I turn to folks that I that I know have have a record, a history of of of quality journalism.

And you can look across kind of ideological spectrums that we look at.

But but I certainly turn it and I try to get my students to think about those things.

They look beyond.

Right.

They look to tech talk.

They look to other other means.

Not that there's not things of value there, but I want them to have some of those those more grounded institutions.

And I believe we have another audience question.

Yeah, I was just wondering, so if it's possible that President Biden might lose in 2024, that would be this would be the second time in American history where two incumbent presidents in a row were defeated the last time in the 1880s, the Gilded Age.

What would that mean for American society, in your view, if we have two presidents of two different parties that both lose back to back?

Yeah, it's a fantastic question and great historical context for that.

Really, really fabulous.

As you mentioned in the gilded Age, what was happening in the Gilded Age, right.

There was discontent growing with it, with with American economic systems are our place are kind of structures that was tensions and industrialization.

There was a is a tense time in American history.

And you saw that and you start to wonder, are the institutions able to govern during these periods?

So from a political science perspective, we started to wonder about systematic pressures, systematic structures.

And if you did have back to back losses by by incumbent presidents, we've entered a new space.

Certainly we see that us as pollster about where the public is.

There's dissatisfaction with the direction of our country.

There's just satisfaction with institutions.

This could be manifesting right in in those types of races.

And I think it has a broader kind of piece of evidence about maybe the standing of of where we are as a country.

Wonderful question.

And all the way in the back, I think.

Okay, Chris, I wonder if you have any thoughts on Vice President Harris.

The New York Times magazine had a really interesting cover story a couple of weeks ago.

I can't remember the exact numbers, but I remember that her approval ratings are also struggling right now.

Do you think that there will be a change on the ticket before the election?

Yeah, it's her numbers have struggled.

She's she's almost over the course of her time as the vice president had numbers that that have been fairly low sometimes lower than than President Biden himself who has had some struggles there.

Which raises a question, do you shake it up?

You always heard, you know, presidential campaigns, governors looking to shake it up in a second term and maybe get some energy.

It's a perilous decision, right?

You'd be taking off someone who has a history of her own.

Right.

You know, first woman to serve as vice president of the United States, a woman of color to make that type of decision.

Right.

When you're looking at the base of the Democratic Party right now, certainly is perilous, I think, for for President Biden, as you say, you know, maybe there's an advantage to to shake it up and get someone that might draw energy.

How much energy and maybe support might you lose by that decision?

So really, really fascinating choice.

Very good.

So we're going to move on now to closer to home with Pennsylvania's seventh Congressional District.

We've seen, Susan, while she's now looking for a fourth term.

What you had, Ken, what's it going to take for Republicans to beat her?

It's been these really close races each time.

Yeah, it's a fascinating race and we're lucky, too, to live.

There's not a lot of competitive districts in the United States for various reasons.

How we sort ourselves out and where we live, how we gerrymandered districts.

We're lucky enough here in the seventh District, Tom, to live in a district that's competitive.

It's designed to be I think you look at the demographics of it and even more so after the redistricting in 2020 adding Carbon County into the district, which I think is is great for us to have that competition.

Congresswoman Wild has won you know she's won fairly comfortably in her first race in a good cycle in 2018 for Democrats, a more neutral cycle in 2020, with the little advantage Democrats, she won by four points or so and then won by a point or two last time in in a cycle that was historically, we would say is more difficult for for Democrats, but in particular turned out to be more positive for Democrats.

And I'd go back to the reproductive rights issue on that one.

I'd you know, I would ask the question and this I can't answer the.

But would would Congresswoman Wild have won without the decision of of the Supreme Court last year in that race?

It was it was it was that close that that, you know, can't answer it.

But certainly want to entertain.

So she's proven herself a candidate that can win in different environments.

She's an incumbent, as we've talked about before, incumbency is a great advantage.

And so going into this race, again, a lot of that might be dictated by the broader environment of a presidential election.

It will.

I am fascinated to see the Republican primary, very competitive Republican primary emerging in the seventh District, the type of candidate that might emerge who might be getting ahead of herself.

Yeah.

Yeah.

So so this is it's it's to me a race that that will be much watched not only by us here in the valley, but nationally.

And speaking about that Republican field, I mean, I know we have two of the campaign managers or two of their campaign staffers here tonight for two of the candidates.

What do you make of the field that's emerging there?

What's going to do you have any sense of what's going to set them apart in the in the primary?

Yeah, I think it's early, too, to kind of identify what what the the markers might be, you know, what what ideological lane they might be fitting into.

What kind of.

So you look at the candidates on you have some established politician local representatives, right.

That have had that you have folks that are fairly new on the political scene.

Right.

You have gender differences.

You have age differences across the group.

I think you have, you know, some ideological approaches that that seem to be, although not as distinct, I think, as we might see emerge from the primaries.

And I think that having a very, you know, a fairly crowded field already may be getting more crowded is is going to make for a very robust primary.

And in a race that I think Republicans feel that they could win.

Right.

They've they've come close a couple of times.

So I think you'll see interest not only among individuals in the in the in the valley, but also outside folks that think this is a a potential pickup for Republicans.

One thing that's come up a few times tonight, abortion, reproductive rights, that's kind of played a big role in recent elections.

What do you see as being the issues moving ahead like where does that lie compared to, say, inflation and the economy?

Where does that lie with foreign affairs, with with wars in Ukraine and Israel now?

Yeah, you know, you mentioned foreign affairs, right?

So in the election cycles of 2020 to 2023, they're largely congressional elections, local elections.

Right.

Foreign affairs.

We might not align as a public as much as we would with a presidential election.

Ultimately, the president is the leader of our foreign policy.

The chief diplomat.

Right.

The chief.

Any time we're talking about military, the commander in chief, those types of of roles.

So it repositions that right in our minds when we go into those races and we've seen elections where foreign policy has played an enormous role, right, in American politics, often those inflationary issues that we've talked about before can be important in mid-year elections, but we tend to associate and affix blame and credit for the economy to presidents we historically have right.

As opposed differently that that not that we wouldn't to a governor or a state rep or a member of Congress.

So those issues I think, are going to rise in saliency in this in this cycle.

And I think, you know, and overall, they might have an advantage for Republicans when we look at some of the polling, we look at how the president's evaluated on those matters in terms of like the the campaigning, we have seen enormous amounts of money spent here in the Lehigh Valley in 2022, record amount, $24 million by the candidates and their and their allies.

Are we in for more of the same?

Like what's it going to look like in terms of like whenever we turn on the television or radio or YouTube, people often get mad at me because I don't make real predictions.

I say, Well, here's where it is.

It's probability.

Here's what.

As a good social scientist, I hedge a lot.

Not going to hedge here.

It's going to be off the charts.

It's going to be the amount of money spent in Pennsylvania, the amount of money spent in this district and in 2024 will be off the off the charts we saw.

I mean, just that you looked at the some of the school board races.

I was getting interviewed like down in Bucks County in some of our local races, but definitely down there they used to be some of the numbers I saw were congressional level races not that long ago.

It was it was mind boggling to me.

We've talked about this time.

We saw a state Supreme Court race.

A Supreme Court is very important.

We know the importance of the courts.

Those are the number of 20 million on that race to do.

I mean, these are these are exceptional numbers.

If we're by comparison, like what did it used to be like, what would a like a recently reasonable amount would have been a couple of million for those types of races.

I mean, it's been creeping up like a lot of things, but we've gone from, you know, single digit millions to, ten, 20 million.

Right?

Know, it's it's just it's the type of it's those curves just showing class that that that they go up very steeply.

Last question real quick.

I don't want to forget our Senate race either.

We've seen it looks like Cormack is going to be potentially the Republican candidate.

It's the second time in a row where we've seen a candidate who's had some perhaps more ties out of state than in state.

What's going on with that?

Yeah, it's fascinating.

And I think he's in a different place than Mehmet Oz, I think, last time.

Right.

So Dave McCormick was, you know, grew up in Pennsylvania, spent a considerable amount of time here.

It was hard to make even the least the most tangential ties for Dr. Oz to Pennsylvania.

Right.

It was just hard to do.

And I don't think he wins that primary without the assist of former President Trump carrying him over right in a competitive.

So so McCormack, I think, has some advantages there to show his roots.

He spent a lot of money last time, by the way, to build up that in those ads, if you remember in that primary to kind of show, you know, he played high school football hunter, his old friends could vouch for him, those types of things.

It'll still be part of the issue.

He is you know, if I was running for governor or excuse me, a senator in Pennsylvania living a big chunk of my life in Connecticut in a fairly wealthy being a hedge fund manager, it's not necessarily things I'd want to lead with.

So how's he going to be able to craft his identity for Pennsylvania?

He's going to run up against Bob Casey right.

Who's kind of a legacy name in Pennsylvania, has won a lot of races for Senate very easily.

I expect this to be a very competitive race.

I think a probably the most competitive for Bob Casey.

If you go back to his history, I think McCormack is solid in lots of ways.

As a candidate.

He'll be well funded.

I think he's got a good temperament to be the type of candidate that can run.

So I think it's going to be incredibly competitive race.

Well, Professor, thanks so much for your time and thank everyone that will do it for beyond the Ballot.

Our look at the election season here in the Lehigh Valley.

We want to thank all of our guests for joining us tonight, as well as Muhlenberg College political scientist Chris Borick.

Chamber CEO Tony Ianelli and all of our partners at the Greater Lehigh Valley Chamber of Commerce.

We also want to thank our studio audience and you watching from all of us here at PBS39 and LehighValleyNews.com.

I'm Tom Shortell.

Goodnight.