>> HELLO.

I AM BONNIE ERBE.

WELCOME TO "TO THE CONTRARY", A WEEKLY DISCUSSION OF NEWS AND SOCIAL ISSUES FROM DIVERSE PERSPECTIVES.

UP FIRST, INCREDIBLE EARLY VOTING AND MAIL-IN BALLOTS.

WHAT IS THAT GOING TO DO ABOUT THE CALL OF THE ELECTION NEXT TUESDAY?

>> WE EVEN HAVE MOBILE UNITS GOING OUT TO HARD TO GET PLACES SO THAT PEOPLE WILL HAVE MORE ACCESSIBILITY.

AND I DO THINK, AT LEAST WHAT I'VE BEEN SEEING ANECDOTALLY, IS THAT MORE WOMEN ARE REALLY TAKING THIS VERY SERIOUSLY AND ARE ACTUALLY HELPING TO ENGAGE AND KIND OF ENERGIZE I THINK OUR FAMILIES, OUR COMMUNITIES, AND OUR NEIGHBORHOODS.

PART OF THE COMES OUT OF THE HOLE WOMEN'S MARCH MOVEMENT THAT STARTED, WHAT, ALMOST 3 YEARS AGO, AS SOON AS THIS PRESIDENT TOOK OFFICE.

MORE WOMEN GOT ELECTED, MORE WOMEN STARTED TO TAKE OWNERSHIP AND THEY BROUGHT THEIR CHILDREN AND THEIR FAMILIES AND THEIR SPOUSES TOGETHER ON THAT, YOU KNOW, PLAYING FIELD AND I SEE IT PLAYING OUT NOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY.

AT LEAST ENCIRCLES THAT I AM FAMILIAR WITH, WOMEN ARE SUPPORTING OTHER WOMEN ALSO TO RUN FOR OFFICE, AND THAT TO ME IS VERY EXCITING AS WELL.

>> Bonnie: WE ALSO REACHED OUT TO THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN FOR A SPOKESPERSON, BUT WE WERE DECLINED DUE TO SCHEDULING REASONS.

JOINING ME THIS WEEK ARE DELEGATE D.C.

DELEGATE ELEANOR HOLMES NORTON OF THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA, HARRY LUCAS OF THE INDEPENDENT WOMEN'S FORUM, HILARY ROSEN, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST, AND RINA SHAH, HEAD OF REPUBLICAN WOMEN FOR BIDEN.

STARTING WITH YOU, ELEANOR, THERE HAS BEEN INCREDIBLE EARLY VOTING JUST BEFORE THIS PAST WEEK.

THERE WERE ALMOST 70 MILLION -- MORE THAN 60 MILLION MAIL-IN BALLOT SANDRA ALI VOTERS.

I MYSELF VOTED EARLY IN VIRGINIA.

HOW ARE POLE ANALYSTS AND PULL TAKERS RECORDING THIS?

AND WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR THE ELECTION ON TUESDAY THE THIRD?

>> I THINK AS EARLY VOTING INCREASES ENTHUSIASM FOR THE DEMOCRATIC TICKET ALL THE WAY UP AND DOWN THE BALLOT, BEGINNING WITH TRUMP AND GOING ALL THE WAY TO THE SENATE AND THE HOUSE COMMITTEE AND WE WILL EVEN INCREASE IN THE HOUSE.

NOW, THE EARLY VOTING TAKES PLACE IN A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT WAYS.

I HAVE EARLY VOTED AND THERE IS A BOX HERE IN THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA THAT YOU CAN JUST BUTTED IN.

BUT TRUMP IS FORCING, BY HIS RHETORIC, MANY OF HIS PEOPLE TO VOTE ON ELECTION DAY.

SO WE CANNOT PUT OUR CARDS ON THE TABLE YET, BUT THAT'S GOING TO MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT FOR HIM, BECAUSE HE HAS CAST SUCH A BURDEN ON MAIL-IN VOTING.

>> Bonnie: ALL RIGHT.

CARRIE LUKAS, I HAVE SEEN A PUPIL FROM A YEAR OR SO AGO SAYING THAT, FIRST OF ALL, EXIT POLLING IS VERY UNRELIABLE BECAUSE PEOPLE ARE -- YOU KNOW, THEY CANNOT GET A FIX ON HOW MANY FROM EACH PARTY, FROM EACH DEMOGRAPHIC THEY ARE INTERVIEWING, SO THEY REALLY DON'T KNOW FROM EXIT POLLS, WHICH IS WHAT WE RELY ON, HOW THE VOTING REALLY WAS LAST ELECTION.

AND BECAUSE OF PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYING DON'T VOTE BY MAIL, WHAT DO YOU THINK ALL OF THAT IS GOING TO -- WHAT EFFECT THAT WILL HAVE ON THE ELECTION?

>> YEAH.

I THINK IT'S ONE OF THE YEARS WHERE MORE THAN EVER IT'S IMPORTANT TO BE REAL HUMBLE ABOUT WHAT WE KNOW AND WHAT WE DON'T KNOW.

THERE IS SO MUCH, GOT SO MUCH INFORMATION THAT YOU CAN FIND SOMETHING TO SUPPORT ON ALMOST ANYTHING OUT THERE IN TERMS OF WHATEVER YOUR PREFERENCES AND WHATEVER AGO ARE HOPING.

YOU CAN FIND EVIDENCE TO BACK IT UP.

YEAH.

THERE ARE A LOT OF POLLS THAT LOOK VERY LIKE A SLAM DUNK FOR BIDEN.

I REMEMBER THAT FOUR YEARS AGO, IT LOOKED THAT WAY FOR HILLARY CLINTON.

AND SO, WE JUST DON'T KNOW.

I THINK THAT THE REAL QUESTION ON EARLY VOTING IS NOT -- I THINK THE PROBLEM IS GOING TO BE WHERE THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW THIS ALMOST FUNCTIONS AS ADMINISTRATIVELY.

YOU KNOW, OBVIOUSLY THERE IS LEGITIMATE CONCERNS ABOUT VOTES BEING, YOU KNOW, LOST OR MISPLACED OR HOW IT WILL BE COUNTED, HOW THEY WILL BE RECONCILED.

THAT'S NOT -- YOU KNOW, THAT'S NOT -- I FEEL LIKE A LOT OF TIMES ANYTIME YOU SAY ANYTHING ABOUT -- HOW BAD ABOUT THE POTENTIAL OF VOTING REMOTELY, THAT IT COMES ACROSS AS IF YOU ARE A WILD CONSPIRACY THEORIST.

BUT WE ALL KNOW, THE UNITED STATES HAS A LOT OF MONITORING OF ELECTIONS AROUND THE WORLD.

WE ARE VERY SUSPICIOUS WHEN YOU HAVE VOTING THAT GOES ON FOR MONTHS, AND IF IT'S PUTTING IN A BOX THAT CAN THEN BE TEMPERED WITH, THERE IS A LOT OF POTENTIAL PROBLEMS.

I WORRY ABOUT HOW THE OUTCOME IS GOING TO BE OR WHAT KIND OF QUESTIONS THEY WILL BE LEFT AT THE END.

NO MATTER HOW THIS GOES, WHEN WAY OR THE OTHER, WE SHOULD HOPE FOR A CLEAR-CUT WINNER RATHER THAN HAVE THIS BECOME A BIG KNOCKDOWN DRAG OUT IN THE COURTS.

I THINK THAT WOULD BE REALLY HARD ON THE COUNTRY.

>> Bonnie: RINA, I SPOKE WITH DOT GET OUT THE VOTE PEOPLE AROUND THE COUNTRY, AND BOTH PARTIES ARE MUCH MORE FOCUSED ON GETTING OUT THE VOTE.

REPUBLICANS USUALLY DON'T HAVE TO FOCUS THAT MUCH BECAUSE THEIR WHITE NON-COLLEGE-EDUCATED DEMOGRAPHIC, FOR SOME REASON, TENDS TO VOTE MORE RELIABLY THAN THE DEMOCRATIC DEMOGRAPHIC DOES.

AND POLLSTERS THIS YEAR SUPPOSEDLY HAVE TAKEN THAT INTO ACCOUNT BECAUSE OF THE HORRENDOUSLY WRONG ADDICTIONS THEY MADE IN 2016.

YOUR THOUGHTS?

>> WELL, CERTAINLY THE POLLSTERS I HAVE SPOKEN TO ON BOTH SIDES OF THE AISLE THANKS SO MUCH I'VE CHANGED FROM PULLING IN 2016.

I AM A FREQUENT VISITOR OF THE 538 WEBSITE AND I WAKE UP EVERY MORNING AND TUNE IN THERE.

THEY HAVE EXCELLENT ANALYSIS AS WELL AS INFOGRAPHICS FOR THOSE INTERESTED TO REALLY TELL WHAT'S DIFFERENT THIS YEAR AND WHY PERHAPS DESPITE THE PANDEMIC AND ALL OF THE CHAOS IT HAS CAUSED HIM VOTING, THE POLLSTERS DO GENERALLY HAVE DIFFERENT METHODS AND HAVE A DIFFERENT SINCE THIS YEAR.

ALSO, LET'S NOT MAKE A SMALL THING OF THE FACT THAT BIDEN IS REALLY PULLING SO MUCH DIFFERENTLY THAN HILLARY CLINTON DID.

HE IS WELL OUTSIDE OF THE MARGIN OF ERROR IN MANY STATES.

AND THIS IS NOT SOMETHING THAT PEOPLE WERE EXPECTING AT THIS POINT IN THE GAME, BUT IT HAS COME UP AND IT'S BEEN A STEADY LEAD.

HE HAS GROWN THAT LEAD.

I THINK THAT REALLY SAYS SOMETHING ABOUT THIS CAMPAIGN.

WHAT IT TELLS US MOSTLY IS THAT THIS IS GOING TO BE A CLOSE RACE.

BASED ON THE PULLING AND SEEING THE PAST FEW DAYS, THIS WILL BE A CLOSE RACE.

BUT I MOST AGREE WITH JERRY THAT WE NEED A REALLY DEFINITIVE VICTORY FOR ONE CANDIDATE OR THE OTHER ON ELECTORATE NIGHT.

[LOST AUDIO] THE HIGHER CHANCE IT IS FOR BOTH SIDES TO REALLY DO SOMETHING, FRANKLY, NEFARIOUS OR SOMETHING THAT MAKES THE MINDS OF AMERICAN VOTERS FEEL LIKE THERE IS SOMETHING EVERY IS HAPPENING.

>> HILLARY, ARE DEMOCRATS WORRIED THAT WITH ALL OF THE VOTER, SO-CALLED VOTER SUPPRESSION THEY ARE CLAIMING IS GOING ON WITH TELLING PEOPLE NOT TO VOTE, GETTING CALLS SAYING THEY WILL CHECK YOUR FELONY RECORD IF YOU TELL THEM WHO YOU ARE AND GIVE THEM YOUR PERSONAL INFORMATION, DO DEMOCRATS FEAR THAT WILL HURT DEMOCRATS MORE THAN REPUBLICANS?

>> LOOK, I THINK IT'S CONSISTENTLY CLEAR AND FACTUAL THAT IT IS REPUBLICANS TRYING TO PREVENT PEOPLE FROM VOTING AND NOT DEMOCRATS IN THE SELECTION.

THAT'S JUST INDISPUTABLE.

YOU KNOW, I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT JUST TO SEPARATE FOR VIEWERS THE KINDS OF EARLY VOTING WE ARE TALKING ABOUT.

THERE IS EARLY VOTING IN PERSON WHERE YOU'RE ACTUALLY GOING IN DISTRICTS TO VOTING MACHINES AND YOUR VOTES GET COUNTED RIGHT AWAY AND WILL BE PART OF THE TALLY.

THEN THERE IS VOTE BY MAIL, WHICH HAS BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC BECAUSE THESE STATES ARE SO UNDER RESOURCED RIGHT NOW.

AND THAT'S THE VOTE THAT REPUBLICANS KEEP GOING TO COURT TO TRY TO PREVENT FROM BEING COUNTED, EVEN THOUGH DONALD TRUMP HAS CONSISTENTLY PULLED RESOURCES AWAY FROM THE POST OFFICE FOR THE LAST YEAR AND A HALF ANTICIPATING THIS, AND MAIL DELIVERY IS TAKING LONGER AND LONGER IN MANY STATES ACROSS THE COUNTRY.

SO -- >> Bonnie: WAY LONGER.

>> STATES WHEN YOU LOOK AT IT ARE CRITICAL, PENNSYLVANIA IS THE KEY ONE WHERE THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IS SAYING, NO, NO, NO, WE ARE GOING TO COURT.

YOU CANNOT COUNT ALL OF THE BALLOTS.

AND SO, I THINK WE HAVE TO BE VERY VIGILANT ON ELECTION NIGHT ON WHETHER OR NOT THE MAIL-IN BALLOTS ARE BEING COUNTED IN THESE KEY STATES.

IF THEY ARE NOT BEING COUNTED, DEMOCRATS ARE GOING TO HAVE TO FIGHT, FIGHT, FIGHT FOR THOSE TO BE COUNTED.

BECAUSE WHEN THEY ARE, I'M CONFIDENT JOE BIDEN WINDS, BUT THIS CONSTANT GAME THAT REPUBLICANS HAVE PLAYED IS SO FAMILIAR TO 2000 ABOUT, YOU KNOW, IF YOU SAY BAD THINGS ENOUGH, BUT IN THE VERNACULAR, AND WE ARE HAVING THIS CONVERSATION ABOUT VOTING, WE ARE NOT HAVING A CONVERSATION ABOUT THE ISSUES AND ABOUT THE CANDIDATES, AND THAT IS WHAT'S TAKING OVER THE COUNTRY THIS WEEK.

>> YOU KNOW, IF I CAN JUST JUMP IN, BECAUSE I THINK THIS IS AN ABSOLUTE SMEARING OF REPUBLICANS.

YOU KNOW, THE IDEA THAT SOMEHOW OR REPUBLICAN PLOT TO SAY -- [CROSS TALK] >> -- ABOUT THE POST OFFICE.

WHEN HE PUT SOMETHING IN THE MAIL THAT YOU ACTUALLY CARE ABOUT THAT IS IMPORTANT, MOST PEOPLE DO NOT TRUST THE POST OFFICE BECAUSE IT HAS A TREMENDOUS FALL RATE.

YOU'VE ALREADY FOUND BALLOTS THAT HAVE BEEN THROWN AWAY, MILITARY BALLOTS AND SOME TRUMP BALLOTS THAT WERE THROWN INTO THE TRASH.

THIS IS NOT JUST -- IT'S JUST BARELY GALLING.

I KNOW I'M ON A PANEL WITH FOUR BIDEN SUPPORTERS AGAINST ME, SO I AM AN UNPOPULAR PERSON ON THIS PANEL.

I THINK IT'S JUST -- [CROSS TALK] >> Bonnie: CARRIE, WAIT A MINUTE.

I AM NOT A BIDEN SUPPORTER.

I'M OFFICIALLY NEUTRAL.

SORRY.

GO AHEAD.

>> BUT TRUMP SUPPORTERS CONSISTENTLY TALK ABOUT THIS AS A SMEAR CAMPAIGN.

IT'S JUST FACTUAL, THAT IT'S REPUBLICANS TRYING TO STOP VOTING.

AND THERE IS JUST NOT EVEN -- IT'S NOT WORTH HAVING THIS CONVERSATION FOR MUCH LONGER ABOUT THIS.

>> I WANT TO SWITCH NOW THE WOMEN VOTERS AND WOMEN CANDIDATES.

ELEANOR, I READ AN INTERVIEW WITH THE HEAD OF THE WOMEN'S STUDY GROUP AT RUTGERS AND THEY ARE SAYING THAT MORE WOMEN OF COLOR ARE RUNNING FOR CONGRESSIONAL OFFICE THAN THERE ARE WOMEN IN THE U.S. HOUSE.

NOW, MY QUESTION IS, ARE MOST OF THOSE WOMEN RUNNING FOR SO-CALLED JUNK SEATS?

DID THEY GET THOSE KIND OF NOMINATIONS OR DID THEY GET NOMINATIONS WHERE THEY REALLY -- FOR THE MAJORITY, WHERE THEY CAN REALLY WIN?

>> BONNIE, MORE WOMEN ARE RUNNING FROM EACH PARTY.

YES, REPUBLICAN WOMEN HAVE AWAKENED BECAUSE THEIR NUMBERS HAVE DWINDLED TO VERY FEW IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES.

AND THEY HAVE AWAKENED TO THE FACT THAT THEY SHOULD VOTE.

BUT DEMOCRATIC WOMEN ARE VOTING TO EXPAND THE NUMBER IS THAT WE RUN INTO THOUSAND 18 WHEN WE TOOK OVER THE HOUSE.

SO THAT I EXPECT THAT THE BOOM IN WOMEN VOTING WILL BENEFIT DEMOCRATS MORE THAN REPUBLICANS BECAUSE THE SEATS THAT ARE OUT THERE TO BE TAKEN OVER OUR REPUBLICAN SEATS, AND THOSE ARE SEATS IN WHICH DEMOCRATIC WOMEN ARE DOING WELL AND ARE GOING TO HELP US EXPAND THE HOUSE.

>> DO YOU THINK -- BUT IT'S A HUGE MARGIN.

THEY ARE, WHAT, 147 WOMEN IN THE U.S. HOUSE DON'T KNOW HOW MANY OF THEM ARE OF COLOR, BUT I WOULD IMAGINE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT, AND THERE IS SOMETHING LIKE 180-SOMETHING WOMEN OF COLOR RUNNING FOR CONGRESS.

HOW MANY OF THEM ARE GOING TO MAKE IT?

HOW MANY GOT THE NOMINATION IN THE WAY THAT THE DISTRICT TELLS POLITICALLY?

>> THAT'S AN EXTRAORDINARY NUMBER OF WOMEN OF COLOR TO BE RUNNING FOR CONGRESS, AND I THINK THAT PART OF THE HAS TO DO WITH TRUMP, PART OF IT HAS TO DO WITH THE SUCCESS THAT DEMOCRATS HAD IN TAKING OVER THE HOUSE IN 2018, ENCOURAGING WOMEN TO STEP UP.

THE NUMBERS TELL US THAT WOMEN FEEL INVIGORATED IN PART BY THE CHANGES THEY HAVE SEEN IN THE COUNTRY UNDER TRUMP AND DEMOCRATIC WOMEN THINK THAT THAT MEANS IT'S TIME FOR THEM TO STEP FORWARD.

>> THE REPUBLICAN WOMEN WANT TO TAKE BACK THE REPUBLICAN PARTY AS THEY HAD IT UP UNTIL ABOUT THE LATE '80s AS A PARTY OF AT LEAST MIXED OPINION ON WOMEN'S RIGHTS LIKE ABORTION?

>> FIRSTLY WE SHOULD ACKNOWLEDGE THE FACTS HERE.

THIS YEAR STARTED OUT REALLY WELL.

RECORD-BREAKING 227 REPUBLICAN WOMEN FILED TO RUN FOR THE HOUSE OF REPS, THIS CYCLE.

THE PREVIOUS RECORD I THINK WAS 133 IN 2010.

SO THE CENTER FOR AMERICAN WOMEN IN POLITICS, IT GIVES REALLY GOOD NUMBERS AND I ENCOURAGE FOLKS TO CHECK THEM OUT THERE, BUT, REALLY, THIS IS NO SMALL THING.

IS VERY MUCH PROGRESS FOR THE REPUBLICAN PARTY AND IT SHOULD BE ATTRIBUTED TO CONGRESSWOMAN ELISE STEPANEK OF NEW YORK.

SHE MADE GREAT EFFORTS STARTING HER LEADERSHIP, POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE INTO SOMETHING SHE CALLED APAP WHICH IS REALLY FOR WOMEN TO HELP WOMEN GET OUT OF PRIMARY.

THAT WAS THE NUMBER ONE PROBLEM WE SAW WITH REPUBLICAN WOMEN.

WE TALKED ABOUT IT ON THE SHOW MANY MANY TIMES.

NOW NEARLY 100 OF THOSE WOMEN THAT FILED WON THE PRIMARIES, REPUBLICAN PERMEATES AND BECAME THEIR PARTY'S NOMINEE.

THAT DOUBLED THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF FEMALE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES IN A GENERAL ELECTION.

IT'S BIG FOR THE PARTY.

I DO THINK A LOT OF THOSE HAVE BEEN ENERGIZED BY PRESIDENT TRUMP AND FEELING THAT, YOU KNOW, HE REALLY STANDS WITH THEM IN THEIR COMMUNITY AND ALSO FEELING THAT HE IS AN OUTSIDER POLITICALLY AND THAT IF HE COULD RUN AND WIN AND THEY COULD TOO.

I HAVE HEARD THAT IN THESE PAST FEW YEARS.WHAT I'M HEARING NOW THIS YEAR IN MY CONVERSATIONS WITH REPUBLICAN WOMEN WHO ARE SWITCHING THEIR VOTE FROM TRUMP IN 2016 TO BIDEN THIS YEAR IS THAT THEY ARE REALLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE DIRECTION OF THE COUNTRY FOR TWO REASONS: ECONOMY BECAUSE OF THE PANDEMIC .

PRIOR TO THE PANDEMIC, I WAS NOT HAVING THESE CONVERSATIONS.

I DON'T HAVE DATA TO SHARE THERE.

BUT LARGELY IN RURAL COMMUNITIES, LIKE MY HOME STATE OF WEST VIRGINIA WHERE I CONVENE WITH CONVERSATIONS, I HEAR IT OVER AND OVER IS THAT IT IS THE ECONOMY TO THEM.

IT'S A FEELING THAT, WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN NATIONALLY?

HOW IS THIS COUNTRY GOING TO RECOVER FROM THE HIP THAT WE'VE TAKEN FROM THE PANDEMIC?

MIND YOU, THERE ARE A LOT OF PEOPLE RIGHT NOW OUT THERE WITH ZERO IN THE BANK ACCOUNT AND THE SENATE JUST LEFT AND DID NOTHING FOR THE AMERICAN PEOPLE, I BELIEVE.

THE AMERICAN PEOPLE NEEDED MORE MONEY AND THIS CONGRESS BAILED OUT.

I THINK THESE WOMEN WOKE UP AND SAID IT'S THE REPUBLICANS WERE TELLING ME.

IS NOT JUST THE PRESIDENT, IT'S THOSE IN CONGRESS AS WELL.

I CAN TELL YOU RIGHT NOW WE WILL SEE A LOT OF PEOPLE WHO VOTED FOR TRUMP THAT OUR REPUBLICAN WOMEN VOTE FOR BIDEN THIS TIME AROUND AND I THINK THAT'S A BAD THING IN THIS COUNTRY OR THE PARTY.

>> YOU FOLLOW THE NUMBERS CLOSELY.

YOU HAVE ANY IDEA HOW MANY REPUBLICAN WOMEN ARE RUNNING FOR THE HOUSE AND THEY GOT THERE NOMINATIONS AT A TIME WHEN TRUMP WAS STILL POPULAR?

NOW THEY MAY BE RUNNING AWAY FROM HIM?

>> WELL, I THINK THAT THE POINT THAT CONGRESSWOMAN NORTON RAISED BEFORE IS THE RIGHT POINT, WHICH IS THAT THE MAP IS EXPANDING FOR HOUSE DEMOCRATS.

AND SO, YOU KNOW, LOOK, I AM SOMEONE THAT'S GLAD THERE IS A LOT OF REPUBLICAN WOMEN RUNNING.

I WANT TO SEE MORE REPUBLICAN WOMEN IN ELECTIVE OFFICE.

MORE POWER TO THEM.

I THINK WHAT WE HAVE SEEN, THOUGH, OVERALL IN THE CAMPAIGN THIS YEAR IS REALLY INSTRUCTIVE.

IN 2016 NATIONALLY, THERE WAS AN 11 POINT GENDER GAP, WHICH AS EVERYONE HERE KNOWS IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HOW MANY MORE WOMEN AS A PERCENTAGE VOTING FOR CERTAIN CANDIDATE THAN MEN.

SO HILLARY CLINTON GOT AN 11 POINT GENDER GAP '16 AND THAT AVERAGED OUT ACROSS THE STATES.

THIS YEAR, WE ARE SEEING AMAZING NUMBERS, AND THAT POINTS TO RINA'S ISSUE WHICH IS REPUBLICAN WOMEN ARE CROSSING OVER.

IN NEVADA, WE HAVE 18 POINT GENDER GAP.

IN IOWA, THERE WAS A 19 POINT GENDER GAP.

[LOST AUDIO] 17 POINT GENDER GAP.

IN PENNSYLVANIA, IT'S 25 POINTS.

SO WOMEN ARE GOING TO CHANGE THE ELECTION THIS YEAR FOR ALL SORTS OF REASONS, AND I THINK THAT DEMOCRATS ARE GOING TO BE THE SIGNIFICANT BENEFICIARIES OF IT.

WE HAVE NEVER SEEN GENDER GAP NUMBERS LIKE WE ARE SEEING THIS YEAR.

>> YOUR THOUGHTS, CARRY.

>> WE WILL SEE .

AGAIN, I THINK ALL OF THESE POLLS, WE HAVE TO SEE WHO IT IS BECAUSE I ALSO THINK THERE IS A LOT OF REPUBLICAN WOMEN OUT THERE.

IT'S INTERESTING BECAUSE I THINK WE TALK A LOT ABOUT THIS IDEA OF ALL OF THE REPUBLICANS WHO END UP CROSSING OVER TO VOTE FOR BIDEN.

BUT IN POLLS THAT A LOOK AT, YOU USUALLY SEE WHEN THEY SHAKE OUT OF WHAT SHARE OF REPUBLICANS ARE VOTING FOR TRUMP, YOU KNOW, CLOSE TO AROUND 90.

WHEN YOU LOOK AT 10 PERCENT GOING TO BIDEN OR ROUGHLY, AND YOU LOOK AT WHAT SHARE OF SELF-PROCLAIMED DEMOCRATS ARE GOING TO TRUMP, IT'S USUALLY ABOUT ONE IN 10 TOO.

THERE ARE AWFUL LOT OF DEMOCRATS OUT THERE WHO HAVE DECIDED TRUMP SPEAKS FOR THEM, THAT THEY ARE TIRED OF THINGS LIKE THE KIND OF TURNING AWAY OR THE QUIETNESS WITH WHICH DEMOCRATS ARE JUST TURNING A BLIND EYE TO VIOLENCE AND CALLING FOR DEFUNDING THE POLICE AND IGNORING THE PROBLEMS THAT PEOPLE ARE HAVING IN CITIES WHERE A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE BEING AFFECTED, AND THAT'S ONE OF THE REASONS WHY YOU HAVE SEEN SOME POLLS THAT SUGGEST THE PRESIDENT MAY DO MUCH BETTER AMONG MINORITIES AND SUBURBAN POPULATIONS.

I WOULD JUST BE CAUTIOUS.

ONE THING I THINK THAT IS AN UNDER CONSIDERED POSSIBILITY IS THIS IDEA OF WHO IS TALKING TO POLLSTERS?

IF YOU ARE REPUBLICAN AND YOU ARE USED TO TALKING -- TO BEING ONLINE AND KNOWING THAT -- IF YOU SAY ANYTHING THAT EVEN HINTS AT THE IDEA THAT YOU MIGHT BE A TRUMP SUPPORTER OR A REPUBLICAN, YOU MIGHT LOSE YOUR JOB, BE SOCIALLY SHAMED WHICH IS CERTAINLY HOW IT IS AT A LOT OF THE SOCIAL MEDIA WORLD.

YOU KNOW, AM I GOING TO TALK TO A POLLSTER?

I'VE NEVER HAD A POLLSTER CALLED AND ASKED ME ABOUT MY VOTE.

OUT ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO THEM.

I DON'T KNOW IF THERE'S A LOT OF WOMEN WHO DECIDE I WILL KEEP MY MOUTH SHUT.

AGAIN, I THINK EVERYONE IS SPEAKING WITH A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ABOUT WHAT WE KNOW FROM THE POLES.

MAYBE EVERYONE ON THIS PANEL WILL TURN OUT TO BE RIGHT AND THAT BIDEN WILL WIN THIS IN A WALK AND THAT ALL OF THESE REPUBLICAN WOMEN WHO VOTED FOR HIM IN 2016 WE DID NOT KNOW WERE GOING TO BE THERE, THAT THEY ARE GOING TO VOTE FOR BIDEN THIS TIME, BUT, YOU KNOW, MAYBE NOT.

MAYBE WE ARE MISSING THE BIG STORY AND IT'S JUST THE MEDIA WHO REFUSES TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE EXISTENCE OF CONSERVATIVE WOMEN AND REFUSES TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE EXISTENCE OF DEMOCRATIC WOMEN WHO SUPPORT THE PRESIDENT OVER JOE BIDEN.

>> EVEN TRUMP RECOGNIZES HE IS LOSING WOMEN.

WHY ELSE WOULD HE BE CRYING, SUBURBAN WOMEN, WHERE ARE YOU?

VOTE FOR ME!

THAT'S ONE OF HIS -- [CROSS TALK] >> HE'S BEING TONGUE-IN-CHEEK.

>> HE SAYING HOUSEWIVES.E UNDERSTANDS THAT HE IS -- THAT IS WOMEN WHO ARE GOING TO GIVE THIS VOTE TO BIDEN AND HE IS SCREAMING OUT FOR THEM IN WAYS THAT WILL NOT IN FACT THE TRACK TO HIM TO VOTE FOR HIM, BECAUSE HE KNOWS THAT THEY ARE MUCH MORE THAN THE MARGIN OF ERROR, THAT THEY ARE LEAVING HIM IN DROVES AND HE CANNOT WIN, PARTICULARLY IF SUBURBAN WOMEN CONTINUE TO CLIMB OUT OF THOSE SWING STATES THAT TOOK HIM OVER LAST TIME.

>> THERE WAS ANOTHER POINT I THINK -- ELEANOR IS RIGHT.

THE POINT THAT CARRIE MADE ABOUT -- IT'S IMPORTANT TO DISTINGUISH BETWEEN VOTERS WHO WE ARE VOTING FOR.

WHAT WE SAW IN '16, IN FACT WE SAW IT IN '12 AS WELL, BUT WHAT WE SAW IN 2016 WAS, YOU KNOW, REPUBLICANS HAVE STAUNCHLY STAYED WITH DONALD TRUMP INCLUDING REPUBLICAN WOMEN.

I DON'T THINK THAT'S GOING TO CHANGE THIS YEAR EITHER.

I DON'T THINK THERE IS GOING TO BE, DESPITE A HUGE AMOUNT OF REPUBLICAN CROSSOVER AND WOMEN FOR TRUMP.

BUT INCREASINGLY OVER THE LAST TWO CYCLES, WOMEN HAVE IDENTIFIED LESS BY PARTY.

THEY IDENTIFY MORE IS INDEPENDENTS.

WHAT WE SAW IN 16 WAS THAT THOSE INDEPENDENT PLOTS AND REPUBLICAN LEANING WOMEN ALL VOTE FOR TRUMP.

THAT IS THE KEY DIFFERENCE HERE, IS THAT WE ARE NOT SAYING THAT REPUBLICAN WOMEN ARE GOING TO VOTE FOR BIDEN.

I THINK WHAT WE ARE SAYING IS THAT THE HUGE AMOUNT OF UNIDENTIFIED VOTERS RIGHT NOW ARE BREAKING FOR BIDEN AND THAT THE GENDER GAP BETWEEN MEN AND WOMEN IS SIGNIFICANT.

WHITE WOMEN ELECTED DONALD TRUMP IN MANY WAYS.

YOU KNOW?

AND TO MY EVERLASTING SHAME.

BLACK WOMEN, YOU KNOW, HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY SUPPORTING DEMOCRATS.

I THINK -- >> I WANTED TO GET TO THAT BECAUSE TRUMP DID WIN WHITE WOMEN AND WHITE MARRIED WOMEN IN 2016, BUT THEY SAY A LOT OF YOUNG PEOPLE HAVE ALREADY VOTED.

YOU KNOW, 18 TO 25 OR 18 TO 29 HAVE ALREADY VOTED.

AND THEY ARE COMING OUT FOR THE FIRST TIME AND THEY ARE VOTING IN DROVES FOR DEMOCRATS.

IS THAT ACCURATE?

BECAUSE, YOU KNOW, WE HEARD IT WITH OBAMA BOTH ELECTIONS AND IT REALLY DID NOT MOVE THE NEEDLE AS THEY SAY VERY MUCH.

HE GOT LIKE ONE OR TWO PERCENTAGE MORE OF YOUNG PEOPLE WHO STARKLY DON'T GO TO THE POLLS THEN HAD BEEN OUT BEFORE ASK THAT'S WHAT WE ARE SAYING, IS THAT YOUNGER WHITE WOMEN ARE SHIFTING TO BIDEN AND THAT SENIORS ARE STILL WITH TRUMP IN MOST OF THE KEY BATTLEGROUND STATES.

BUT WHAT WE ALSO KNOW IS THAT CAN SHIFT THE NUMBERS BETWEEN 35 AND UNDER AND LET'S CALL 35 AND UNDER YOUNGER WOMEN NOW BECAUSE OF THE COMBINED DEMOGRAPHIC, THAT CAN MAKE THE MARGIN.

AND SO, I THINK THAT'S WHAT WE WILL END UP SEEING WHEN YOU HAVE THESE GENDER GAP NUMBERS THAT ARE COMING FROM SOMEWHERE.

IT IS FROM YOUNGER WOMEN.

>> THIS WAS THE PART I WORRIED ABOUT BETWEEN 2016 AND 2018, IS REPUBLICAN WOMEN IN MY DEMOGRAPHIC BEING REALLY TURNED OFF BY THE PRESIDENT'S BEHAVIOR.

A LOT OF US ARE MOMS AND MOMS TO YOUNG CHILDREN, AND EVERY TIME THE PRESIDENT IS ON THE TELEVISION, IT'S GOTTEN TO THE POINT WHERE I TURN IT OFF BECAUSE HE'S JUST BARKING, HE IS ANGRY, USING WORDS THAT I'VE HEARD BLEEPED BEFORE, LANGUAGE I WOULD NEVER EXPECT AN AMERICAN PRESIDENT TO USE, WHETHER A REPUBLICAN, DEMOCRAT, AND THIS IS A TURNOFF.

I DO THINK A LOT OF THEM BECAME UNAFFILIATED AN INDEPENDENT AHEAD OF THOSE MIDTERMS.

I THINK IT WILL BE SO INTERESTING TO SEE WHO ACTUALLY SHOWED UP AT THE POLLS, WHO ACTUALLY VOTED THIS TIME.

YES, I THINK IT WILL BE AMERICAN WOMEN WHO DELIVERED THIS VICTORY FOR JOE BIDEN IF HE IS SUCCESSFUL.

>> WHATEVER YOUR POSITION IS, PLEASE GET OUT THERE AND VOTE BEFORE OR ON TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 3.

VOTING IS INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT IN THE SELECTION.

THANK YOU ALL FOR JOINING ME.

THAT'S IT FOR THIS EDITION.

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