>> major funding is provided by RWJ Barnabas health, let's be healthy together.

Rowan University, educating New Jersey leaders, partnering with New Jersey businesses, transforming New Jersey's future.

Promotional support provided by New Jersey business magazine, a magazine of the New Jersey business and industry Association, reporting to executive and legislative leaders in all 21 counties of the garden state since 1954.

And by Politico New Jersey playbook, a topical newsletter arm -- on garden state politics.

♪ David: tough times for New Jersey Republicans?

or is it actually a good time to be in the deal?

-- in the GOP?

Nancy Solomon, Senior reporter for WNYC.

From Politico -- And Charles Stiles.

We will hear from that panel in just a bit but we begin today with a health check on the state Republican Party as we head towards important races for U.S. Senate, president, and governor.

Our guest is a member of the Republican National Committee joining us from Las Vegas.

Welcome back to Reporters Roundtable.

>> thanks for having me.

Good morning from Vegas where it's about 7:00.

David: I appreciate it.

Staying awake will be more than our viewers do when they watch.

What's going on in Vegas?

>> it's our annual mitt -- winter meeting.

We meet three times a year officially.

So this is our regularly scheduled winter meeting as you get ready for the presidential year.

So look at the rules upcoming for the convention, what the budget will be for the coming year.

Those are the important matters.

Obviously a lot of talk about the race and where things stand.

Always interesting.

Not a lot of work gets done.

We've done a lot of work ahead of time.

Most important is adoption of the budget for the coming year.

David: before we get too far into the state GOP can we do a poorest -- a postmortem on your friend's presidential bid.

Worth it?

what does he do now?

>> first of all, absolutely worth it.

The governor had an important message, talking honestly and directly to Republicans and the American public about the state of the country and where the Former President left us when he left office with all the crazy things he's been saying and doing since then.

I think that was an important effort by the governor.

He held himself well, talked about -- we have to be honest with ourselves as we look forward about the important issues facing us, crime, immigration, the economy.

Didn't catch fire with Republicans.

Trump has half of that base.

Trump wouldn't get on the debate stage.

The governor scared him off of any debate stages.

As to what's next, have no fear.

Chris Christie will be out there , his voice will be loud and clear talking about those issues that I just mentioned.

He has a book coming out next week that will put him back on the speaking circuit and back on TV.

He's very concerned about the direction of the country, both played -- parties are dividing the country.

The governor will be an important voice talking about uniting America and moving forward.

David: so election season now.

You are never going to be a Trump guy I assume.

Is he back for the country in your mind -- bad for the country in your mind?

>> absolutely.

He has divided this country.

He has really contributed to this problem in America, we won't face up to fact or talk specifically about the things that we all know.

He lost the 2020 election.

40 of the 44 people who served in his cabinet will not support him.

Don't take my word for it.

These are people who were in his cabinet in the Oval Office and won't support him.

I stand with those folks.

Big concerns about his conduct and his unwillingness to face facts when provided with things that we know are true.

David: how about the Senate race that's coming up?

are you just not going to compete?

this is as good a time as any for Republicans in New Jersey to win a senate seat.

You have an incumbent who is in trouble.

And then a Democratic primary that's going to be Bloody.

This is the time, no?

is this the best you've got?

>> a number of people who are in this race.

Glassner got in before we knew about Menendez and his troubles.

The articulate mayor wanting to run.

Also a successful businessman from South Jersey, the sample of his handiwork down there.

Very well known down in South Jersey.

You are right.

It looks like it's going to be an open sea.

Most likely will not be the nominee on the Democratic side.

As people go through the year, they will get energized and get interested.

The problem for us is who will be at the top of our ticket.

If Donald Trump is at the top of our ticket, that doesn't bode well for the rest of the Republican candidates down ballot.

I'm really concerned about that as we go into 2024.

But it's early.

Let's see how this sorts out.

We have a couple of good candidates out there.

Give them time.

Let them get on their feet and speak for themselves.

David: looking at the governor's race, I know it's next year but people are jumping in.

Moderates occupying the same space in your party.

Then you have the right wing.

Do the moderates run the risk of handing the primary over to a right-winger who can't run -- when in the general?

>> let's not get ahead of ourselves.

We only have one candidate.

John had a great launch, big crowd, great speech.

As far as I know, that's it.

Let's see how that field develops.

That's 2025.

That's before anybody starts voting.

2024 is upon us.

To your point, what happens this year will have implications and impact on next year.

Before we get ahead of ourselves, I think we have to see how 2024 plays out in terms of primaries and the presidential race.

David: fair enough.

I was leading into a question about your state party and whether it's the party of Trump or is it still the party of Tom Kane senior?

is this election cycle going to tell the tale about that?

>> I think it depends on which part of the state you are talking about.

South Jersey, you are talking about Jeff Van Drew's who is very popular and a strong incumbent.

Central and north Jersey, talking about Tom Kane.

And his term in office.

Very popular.

Different part of the state.

David: which makes sense regionally for sure.

I know what you are saying.

Overall, Trump -- overall you need popular vote.

>> the same thing is true on the Democratic side.

Democrats talk to people.

New Jersey has always been that tale of two cities.

Very red counties and places.

Big strong Republicans up and down the Jersey shore.

That's always been New Jersey.

Have to be able to talk to voters on each side of the spectrum.

David: running out of time.

You are doing party business this week.

What happened that you lost delegates to the national convention and now a lot of people who wanted to go as delegates can't?

somebody's head has to roll, no?

>> we are not happy that they moved up the convention so close to our primary in June.

We don't have time to submit certified delegates as elected to the national convention in time.

I'm not concerned about it.

We are going to elect congressional delegates the same way we always have.

A full slate of delegates elected by a million and a half primary voters.

I don't know what the RNC were trying to do.

They wanted to have a caucus or something like that or a convention.

Our County chairman said no.

They should be before 105 million Republicans, not some party bosses.

I'm confident that we will present the delegates that we select when they meet in Milwaukee.

They will see our full convention.

Whoever the eventual nominee is, they will want our full contingent of delegates seated and they will be there.

David: up early for us in Las Vegas.

Good to see you.

Things were coming on.

>> no problem.

Thank you for having me.

David: panel, welcome to you all.

I want to start with this poll out this week from FDU on the U.S. Senate race.

Democratic primary.

It shows Congressman Andy Kim up by 12 points over Tammy Murphy.

Surprise to you?

>> not a total surprise.

Some of the smaller polls have shown that he had an advantage over Tammy Murphy.

Maybe the gap is bigger than I would've expected.

So a surprise in that sense.

Now.

This is probably the most interesting political race that we've seen in a very long time.

I think it's going to be an exciting six months until the primary.

The two leading candidates are going to go head-to-head.

It's going to be fun.

David: we keep hearing how Tammy Murphy has all of this organization support.

Someone pointed out to us this week that the poll evidently wasn't pulling committee people.

These were actual civilians that they were pulling.

>> one way to look at this, it's a race of enthusiasm that the first lady doesn't have.

So that's going to be one of the most important things in this race.

David: I'm not sure why Larry Hamm wasn't in this poll.

He was the first or the second one in the race.

The only black person -- Black person in the race.

His name recognition would've been interesting to measure, now?

>> I would agree.

He was a veteran presence in New Jersey politics.

He has made his intentions clear.

So I don't know.

I don't want to second-guess the methodology.

I'm not sure.

I've just got my first read out the poll.

I think he should've been in there, to answer your question.

David: I think his name recognition is probably higher at this point.

You know, he certainly could've affected the percentages of Black voters for sure.

Anyway.

Can we talk about this controversy over this article on Tim Murphy -- Tammy Murphy?

it glossed over her assault.

Tammy Murphy's silence about that.

>> yeah.

I mean, this has been hanging over the Murphy's now for 5, 6 years.

And you know, I don't know.

I find it hard.

Absent an actual charges in the case where evidence has been presented, it's hard to know what's up.

The Murphy's made a mistake in not responding to her and stopping this at the beginning.

It's hard to know how this is going to play out in terms of the politics of the situation.

You know, Julie had a falling out with the campaign.

There was a power struggle there .

She has claimed that it was a toxic place for women.

But others that were involved in the campaign say that this was more about a falling out that she was having with other campaign staff people.

So I don't think this is going to be a big problem for the Murphy's.

But it certainly hasn't gone away.

It's been now many years.

David: what did you think about the piece?

a lot of people thought that it was a puff piece.

>> I don't know that I thought it was a puff piece.

There were positives and negatives for the first lady for the New Jersey political system.

The county party system.

I think you could read it and get a good sense and feel.

Nothing is totally negative or positive.

It laid out the issues well for our friends across the Hudson.

David: particularly those who aren't inundated with news about this every day like folks on the others.

Good point.

Looks like Brendan and Rick and Skate are going to stay close to the race.

That will be bad for the first lady, no?

>> yeah.

I think I agree with you.

They will be very vigilant.

I think they are going to inject themselves, when the race pivots on issues affecting women.

That's going to be a big calling card for Tammy Murphy.

Remember, she's going to present herself as a historical figure, as a potential first female U.S. senator from New Jersey.

David: they are going to be accounted counter for that.

>> they are going to use that opportunity to assert that point, those criticisms.

David: all right.

Nancy, let's talk about our guest after he left the house.

I said a couple weeks ago, this race needed a John Brennan and it.

Is he the guy Republicans didn't know they needed all along?

>> you now, I think he's a very dangerous candidate for Democrats.

The big issue is, can he when the primary with the pricing -- rising level of conservatism in the Republican Party?

that remains to be seen.

You have to love a guy who has billboards advertising that he's the funniest lawyer in New Jersey.

He's a good candidate in the sense that he's lively, he is personable, he's funny.

He is a true moderate.

There are so few of them left in New Jersey in terms of elected officials and the Republican Party.

The question is, are there enough Republican moderate voters to get him past the primary?

if you can get past the primary, he has a very good shot at flipping the statehouse and putting a Democrat in the governor's office.

David: we are seeing some scenes here of his launch commercial where the guys are all sitting around playing poker.

[LAUGHTER] Is it time to take him seriously?

>> absolutely.

I think Nancy is right.

He would be a formidable candidate in the general election.

He also evokes that old school New Jersey style of wanting to be a Jersey guy whose sole ambition is to run the state.

Not to use it as a stepping stone.

But here's a guy who came out of the Plainfield city Council.

Now 70 years old.

This would be the culmination of a career, not a bid -- midpoint.

I think he would be from edible.

I think also, let's not discount him in a primary.

Jack did a rally is a likely competitor who also aligns himself closer to the middle.

But he has left himself open to being cast as more MAGA light.

He refuses to disown himself from Trump.

That gives himself an opportunity to make the case that the whole central moderate Lane belongs to me.

David: I think you are right.

He needs to work on his Trump answer for sure.

Let me switch gears a bit.

These proposed fare hikes on transit.

Tolls increasing.

You had an interesting piece on how this may come down on Murphy and his legacy as the defender of the middle class on a good day.

>> I think we are seeing something interesting which is the governor, during the previous six years, has been able to talk about tax cuts that affect the working class.

There was a million taxes that went away.

He's been able to talk about tax cuts.

Now whether it's coincidence of the federal pandemic relief money for transit systems expiring or decisions that the legislature hasn't dealt with for a while, you are looking at a couple of months now or two years ahead really where they have to do 15% fare hikes, maybe friends a -- for NJ transit where they have to consider increasing the gas tax.

Where legislators including the president of the Senate are talking about restoring the corporate business tax.

This is going to come to a head in a very compressed time and it's going to look like a lot of things falling on middle-class people at once.

David: yeah.

Right around the time of a gubernatorial election.

You know, Democrats haven't had three terms in the front office since 1816 something.

>> I knew that was coming.

[LAUGHTER] David: so Charlie, were you on the Taylor Swift beat this week?

is that a real thing?

>> I wasn't.

That was supposed to be a blog post that grew a little longer.

I found that interesting.

One of the more prominently quoted maga mouthpieces is a candidate who got 36% of the vote in the fourth Congressional District hearing in New Jersey two years ago, Mike crispy.

A bomb thrower.

So I felt that was an opportunity to say, yeah, this is wacky, this is cockamamie nonsense.

But you know what?

this relates to the future governor's race, the Senate race.

We have here in New Jersey, we have a very red MAGA presence that is an undercurrent in the state.

David: is it growing?

>> I'm not sure.

It's hard to measure.

It's definitely there.

Yes, the state has always had its red districts.

I think they've gotten redder and more MAGA.

For these candidates, it's going to make it much harder to navigate as they seek the brass ring.

David: all right.

Time for our only in Jersey segment.

Headlines and notes that are quintessentially Jersey.

Do you have one for us?

>> yes.

A woman found some pepperoni distributed around her property.

It reminds me of a story from last year where there was some pasta found in the woods.

At some point when you are walking through New Jersey, you could put together a pretty good spread.

David: pasta and pepperoni.

Fabulous quintessential New Jersey.

You got one for us?

>> not as good as that one.

I thought the New York magazine article by Tammy Murphy.

We haven't talked about the county line but it really is quintessentially and only in New Jersey.

Tammy Murphy has the endorsement of all the party bosses and she gets the county line on each ballot in the big Democratic counties.

That's probably what is going to hand her a victory more than any polling indicates.

But I thought the quote in the New York magazine article from an elected official who told the reporter, do I think she's the best candidate, no.

Do I think it's a good look for New Jersey, no.

If you're asking me if I'm going to vote for her, the answer is no.

This apparently is a person who endorsed her.

To me, that is so New Jersey.

David: totally.

Mine comes from Atlantic City where former city Council President Craig Callaway was arrested this week on voter fraud charges.

Callaway, the politician turned political logistics consultant, is alleged to have harvested vote by mail ballots in exchange for 30 to $50 and then filling them out for his candidates and clients.

I thought Callaway was already in jail.

The former Democrat was working most recently for Republicans including Congressman Jeff Van Drew whose campaign as Callaway and his tactics this week.

Despite having paid him $65,000 for strategy consulting, their words.

For his 2022 Congressional campaign.

Van drew got only 851 the BMs that year according to his campaign.

That comes out to $77 per ballot.

Back in the 1970's in Jersey City, that same ballot would have cost you about five dollars.

As the old-timers say, inflation.

That's roundtable for this week.

Good to see you all.

Thanks also to -- for joining us .

You can find more content including full episodes when you scan the QR code right there on your screen.

For the entire team here at Gateway Center in downtown Newark, thanks for watching.

We will see you next week.

♪ >> major funding for Reporters Roundtable is provided by RWJ Barnabas health, let's be healthy together.

Rowan University, educating New Jersey leaders, partnering with New Jersey businesses, transforming New Jersey's future.

Promotional support provided by New Jersey business magazine, the magazine of the New Jersey business and industry Association, purporting to executive and legislative leaders in all 21 counties of the Garden State since 1954.

And by Politico New Jersey playbook, a topical newsletter on Garden State politics, online at Politico.com.

♪