♪♪♪ announcer: Funding for "The Hinckley Report" is made possible in part by the Cleone Peterson Eccles Endowment Fund.

Morgan Lyon Cotti: Tonight on "The Hinckley Report."

New polling reveals which voters will determine who wins the upcoming elections.

Candidates square off in debates as Utahns prepare to cast their ballots.

And our panel examines which races are flying under the radar that could have major consequences for Utahns.

♪♪♪ ♪♪♪ Morgan Lyon Cotti: Good evening, and welcome to "The Hinckley Report."

I'm Morgan Lyon Cotti, Associate Director of the Hinckley Institute of Politics.

Jason is off this week.

Covering the week we have Kerry Bringhurst, co-manager of Utah Public Radio; Robert Gehrke, political columnist with the Salt Lake Tribune; and Amy Donaldson, executive producer of KSL Podcasts.

This has been a really interesting week.

It seems like we sort of had a slow build up towards the political season, but we're truly in sort of the election madness that is usually October.

So, Robert, let's start with you.

We have seen some new polling coming out of a few different entities, including the Hinckley Institute and the Deseret News this week, about the U.S. Senate race.

What has been your big takeaway?

Because we're seeing it's still pretty tight.

Robert Gehrke: Yeah, it's tight, I think between the last poll that Hinckley did and the most recent one, we saw a lot of undecided people get off the fence, but there are still about 12% that are undecided, and those are the people that these candidates are really vying for right now.

I think the margins are--make it basically a toss up at this point, and if anything, the momentum seems to be swinging a little bit toward McMullin.

Now, there's two schools of thought, if you're undecided at this point: you know who the incumbent is, and you haven't bought in on that yet.

The other school of thought-- and so you're more likely to break to the challenger.

The other school of thought is that this is a Republican state, these people are generally voting Republican, and they're going to come home at the end.

So, one of those two narratives is gonna play out, and it's gonna ultimately determine who wins this race, I think.

Morgan Lyon Cotti: And Amy, that "come home" language, we heard that in 2016 with then-vice presidential candidate Mike Pence, telling people, hey, remember where your home base is.

Does that call still hold sway now?

What will it take for some of these undecideds to get off that fence?

Kerry Bringhurst: I think election, getting the ballot in the mail, right?

I think they're undecided because they don't love the options that they have, but I think they'll probably vote party line.

I think--I'm surprised it's as close as it is, and I'm also surprised at the--in the most recent polling, the number of voters, you know, likely voters who disapprove of Evan McMullin.

I was surprised by that, because usually you see high approval numbers and high "don't know" numbers with a candidate that's not already in office.

I expected Mike Lee's "don't like" numbers to be higher because he's in office and making decisions that people will, you know, have issues with.

So, I thought that was an interesting development, and I wonder if advertising has something to do with it.

Morgan Lyon Cotti: And, Kerry, I wanna get your read on something that Mike Lee said this week, actually, on "Tucker Carlson," because we're hearing more endorsements and also non-endorsements coming in, and Senator Lee went on "Tucker Carlson" and talked about how he still has not received an endorsement from Mitt Romney.

And what he said was, "It's not too late, Mitt.

You can join the party.

I'd welcome you to do so because otherwise you'd be stuck with two more years of Chuck Schumer being the leader and two more of Joe Biden having unfettered rule over the United States Senate without any Republican backstop."

Who is this type of language-- what voters was he trying to reach out to there?

Kerry Bringhurst: That is the question.

Why go on this show, who are you trying to encourage?

Wondering if this is kind of a prep for if things don't go the way that Mike Lee wants them to go.

Is there maybe looking for somebody to blame?

I don't know, and also who are the constituency that he's trying to reach out?

I think a lot will be realized when we hear that debate between McMullin and Lee, because I do think, as we've talked about why we're seeing maybe an undecided, is it really a vote that we're seeing in the polls against Lee or is it really a vote for McMullin?

I'm hearing that people don't really know what McMullin is all about.

Morgan Lyon Cotti: Well, and what's interesting also about these don't knows, and, Amy, you were just talking about the people that are still saying they don't know, a lot of those are in the middle of the political spectrum.

There are the moderates, maybe people that lean a little bit one way or the other, and you were saying you think people will vote party line.

But usually in these campaigns, candidates are trying to figure out what is the tent of voters that I need?

And here we're not often talking about those moderates in Utah.

Amy Donaldson: I think, because I think we don't have a true, like, large group of independents, like, that are truly unaffiliated.

You have independents who don't vote party line, and that's considered independent in the state, but by and large they generally feel more affection for one party or the other, and that's where I think you're gonna see the swaying happen, and that's where I think there could be some answers that come during the debate that will help people who maybe lean--would've voted for a Democratic candidate who lean Democratic who will vote--who will back Evan.

They don't like Mike as a candidate, so they may choose that.

Robert Gehrke: Well, I think that's why it's--the Romney dynamic is so interesting too, because if Mike Lee is trying to expand his base, we know Mike Lee has his Republican hardcore base.

Amy Donaldson: And let's be honest, that's who he's speaking to on "Tucker Carlson."

Robert Gehrke: And that's who he's speaking to on "Tucker Carlson."

If he's trying to expand it, a Mitt Romney endorsement might really help him do that, but he keeps highlighting the fact that Mitt Romney has not endorsed him, and I just don't understand the logic behind that, because, you know, he released this thing that said, "48 Republican Senators endorsed me."

Well, Utahns don't really care about Senator Ossoff or Hawley endorsing him, they care about why Mitt Romney hasn't done it yet, and to keep drawing attention to it I think just drives home the point in these undecided voters that Mitt, for some-- whatever reason Mitt didn't do it, has not endorsed.

Amy Donaldson: Don't you think it's a loyalty thing?

Like, it's, you know, we're from the same party, like, we're on the same team, right?

We want our team to win.

Even if you don't like me, go to bat for me, have my back, right?

Kerry Bringhurst: But did Lee endorse Romney?

Amy Donaldson: No, he did not, but I think that's what's at play here, is, like, we're on the same team, we care about Republican values, you need to back me so that we can get those things done.

Morgan Lyon Cotti: Well, and there's some interesting points about the fundraising is that we are seeing a pretty astronomical amount of money coming into this race.

Currently from just outside spending, from PACs in this race, we're at $7 million, and these are largely on some of these advertisements that are flooding into--onto people's Facebook feeds and onto their screens at home when they're trying to watch anything.

Robert, how does this change the dynamic of the race?

Robert Gehrke: Well, it changes it in a couple of ways.

I think, first and foremost, the candidates don't necessarily control their message when you see all of this outside money coming in, and we've seen some really brutal attack ads being run against Evan McMullin by Club for Growth.

McMullin's campaign has sued Club for Growth over one of them, and the candidates kind of lose control of their message, but it also gives the candidates some cover.

They don't have to do the dirty work themselves, and I think we're gonna see more of it.

Senator Rand Paul's PAC that recently put a buy in in this market.

You know, Club for Growth says they're going to keep spending hundreds of thousands of dollars up until election day.

One thing that I think we can take from that, though, is that it shows that this race is a lot closer than the Lee people are leading us to believe.

They say their internal polling has him up by 18 points.

Well, he's not acting like an 18 point, you know, favorite at this point by going on "Tucker Carlson," begging for this Romney endorsement, running these ads, running really hard hitting ads that have a high backfire potential, and so I think we can take away from that that this race is a lot closer than they're letting on, than they would lead us to believe.

Morgan Lyon Cotti: Yeah, and to that point, it's interesting that in 2016 there was $350,000 from outside PAC, and now we're at $7 million.

Amy Donaldson: Well, the race wasn't close.

I mean, when the race is contested, you know, you have to--the outset, it becomes-- and the Senate is a 50-50 Senate.

Every seat is critical.

Kerry Bringhurst: And how that will impact the overall Senate leadership, within, you know, the Senate is something that also needs to be taken into consideration.

That's a big player in all of this.

That's happening nationally, not just here in Utah.

Morgan Lyon Cotti: Kerry, this outside PAC money, this outside messaging, how does--how do voters react?

How do--do they recognize the difference between the campaigns and the PACs as they're absorbing all this information?

Kerry Bringhurst: I don't know that they understand the difference between the campaigns and the PACs, but they do listen to the messaging, and it does have an impact, and, again, that's why I think the debate between these two Senate candidates will be critical.

It will give McMullin an opportunity to explain, maybe, some issues that have been misrepresented, but we also have to remember that McMullin is also getting money from PACs, and it goes both ways.

I think it is confusing for the voter to try and determine the differences.

Amy Donaldson: Well, and when you talk about that center voter, they're the ones who are turned off by your most negative advertising, so your base is okay with the attack ads if it means holding onto the seat.

Morgan Lyon Cotti: Yeah, and this is an interesting thing we've been talking about, the Dignity Index a little bit here in Utah.

This is a new project from an organization called Unite, Tim Shriver's organization, that's partnering with the University of Utah, and this is the pilot project here in our state where we've trained all of these politically diverse students to basically rate political speech on these Dignity Index, trying to suss out how civil people are being, and what is interesting is this week the students are looking at these third party entities, looking at these advertisements from PACs.

Kerry, we'll get to the debate you moderated in a moment, but I know you're really familiar with the political speech, what our candidates have been sayin'.

How do you think it's going to compare to what these PACs are putting out?

Kerry Bringhurst: I think the jury's still out on that, because it is kind of a new way of measuring things, but listening to KSL recently and reviewing some of the debates and this particular aspect, I think it's a great learning opportunity.

I think it's wonderful that these students are thinking about this, and if there's dignity within our conversations in the political races.

I do think there will be some impact.

From what I'm hearing people say, just in the congressional debates, they are looking at how people are--how the candidates are treating one another, and I do think it will become something that will have an impact.

Maybe not so much now, but in the future if this type of measurement continues.

Morgan Lyon Cotti: Before we move on from the Senate race, we do have to mention that there was another high profile endorsement, and that is everyone's favorite Luke Skywalker endorsed McMullin, apparently, on Twitter this week.

Do these have any--I mean, we see these in presidential races and other things, we're not used to seeing them in Utah for our federal or local races.

Is this just sort of like a blip for people?

Does it have--Robert, does it have any impact?

Robert Gehrke: I mean, I don't know that it's necessarily gonna change a lot of people's mind.

It does get him some publicity, some attention.

Amy Donaldson: Positive publicity.

Robert Gehrke: Positive publicity, you know, he's in it--sort of, the campaign used it, used to bolster their volunteer turnout, and so in that respect it can do that.

It also--he has a big platform, and so he can solicit donations nationwide in a way that most campaigns that are run at the state level can't do it.

So, you know, is it a game changer?

Not necessarily, but you always want to have a Jedi on your side, I guess, if push comes to shove.

Morgan Lyon Cotti: That's great.

That'll be your quote for the whole week, that's what people will remember Robert said during "The Hinckley Report."

And, again, you've all mentioned the debate happening Monday evening, and people can watch it right here on PBS.

So, Kerry, I wanna come back to you.

You moderated the debate for the first congressional candidates at Weber State earlier in the week.

What was your big takeaway?

What were they focusing on?

Kerry Bringhurst: There was a lot of conversation about inflation and who's to blame for inflation.

Even a little note of disdain toward the media as having an impact in what Rick Jones considers to be not as big a problem as maybe the rest of us might say it is.

That's something he says has happened through past presidencies and is not unusual.

Of course, you know, Congressman Moore, the incumbent in the race, very much feeling like this is part of the Biden administration and that federal spending is out of control.

So, to me that was the gist of the conversation was related to the inflation and the cost of housing.

Something that is really being felt, I think, throughout the state again are the gas prices.

And we talked a little bit about that.

But I learned a lot during the debate.

I was reminded about the fact that the three higher--the largest higher institutions of education are now in that district, the University of Utah, Utah State, and Weber State, so I think if I were to be able--if I would've had more time, I would have wanted to talk a little bit more about higher education and what Congress can do with states to help support and make it possible for students again to afford to go to school.

Morgan Lyon Cotti: That's interesting, and that was one of the student questions, talking about affordability.

And there are a lot of students and young people in that district.

Amy, these are still--this is still--Blake Moore is a relatively new congressmen, Rick Jones is pretty unknown.

What did voters learn?

Anything new that could change the race?

Amy Donaldson: No, I think--I think their explanations--I think people are concerned about, whether you like it or not, inflation is an issue, and whether or not you believe it's complicated by the pandemic or the results of tax cuts versus what the feds are spending and the bailout, I mean, it's probably a lot of combination of things.

So, I think they learned a little bit more.

I thought both of them performed pretty well in that, and same as in CD-3.

I thought they answered the questions, they gave information, they told you how they felt, and so you could gauge where you are in relation to their political ideologies.

Robert Gehrke: I think voters also learned who Rick Jones is, because when you're running in one of the--running against an incumbent as a Democrat in Utah, it's really hard to get a lot of attention and get your name out there, and that's where some of these challengers are still trying to break through.

So, I think, if nothing else, he got a platform for an evening.

Amy Donaldson: Yeah, there's been a few of those people coming onto the scene that I don't know that they'll win any elections, but I hope they stay active in politics.

They have some good ideas and some involved people.

Kerry Bringhurst: And the Dignity Index on that one was pretty high.

Morgan Lyon Cotti: There were-- they--yeah, that was interesting, and we really saw that also with that CD-3 debate, and there are arguments that it's easier to stay a little more dignified when it's not a close election.

I'll let--we have to let the voters decide on that, but it is interesting, these first--those first two debates were relatively civil.

The new, really newsworthy debate--we should say they're all newsworthy, but the one that has taken up the most ink this week is the 4th congressional debate, which occurred at PBS Utah in the University of Utah on Wednesday.

And just a few hours before the debate, Congressman Burgess Owens released a video saying that he would not be attending, and this tied back to the fact that the moderator was the executive editor of the Salt Lake Tribune, and back to what Congressman Owens called a racist political cartoon based on some comments he'd made in Texas at a visit to the southern border.

So, Robert, I have to start with you, because you're our representative from the Salt Lake Tribune.

What has been the reaction to Congressmen Owens not showing up to this debate?

Robert Gehrke: Well, I think a lot of people maybe were surprised, but I frankly wasn't.

We know he didn't debate in the primary, he was claiming then that it was a partisan bias against him, and so he wouldn't participate in the Utah Debate Commission's primary debates.

And, you know, the Republican Party tried to stage a debate forum with a Republican moderator against a Republican candidate, and he wouldn't participate in that either.

So, I didn't expect him to participate in this debate at any point.

I think my personal feeling is it shows you what he thinks of voters.

He doesn't really care if they get a chance to hear, you know, why he thinks what he does or, you know, defend his record.

You know, it shows a level of contempt, I think, for the electorate, and I frankly feel like if you're a representative, that part of that title is to represent, and that means showing up and answering questions to your constituents.

And I think it's a real shame he didn't do it.

Amy Donaldson: I think that's what happens when you have a lopsided race, that they feel less accountability to voters, and they feel less accountability to the media.

They can do these kinds of things, and there's not a consequence.

Because a natural consequences is that you would lose the election if you didn't keep--he hasn't debated in over two years, so I think the fact that--you know, and I don't know--I live in CD-4, and I have never been invited to a town hall or any kind of interact--and I've been invited to those with Evan McMullin, and so I know they are happening.

But, yeah, I think that if it's--if there's not--if it's not a close race, if there isn't some competition there, you can get away with not being accountable.

Robert Gehrke: And if I could just piggyback on that a little bit, I think what--one of the things we're seeing in these congressional races is the impact, the fallout from the gerrymandering that took place earlier in the year, because we have--whereas we used to have the 4th district that would kinda seesaw back and forth, you know, Jim Matheson, Mia Love, Ben McAdams, Burgess Owens.

Now it's a 30-point Republican edge in that district, and as Amy said, there's no reason for Burgess Owens to show up if that's the case, because there's no way he's gonna lose.

He doesn't--it doesn't matter what he does at this point.

He went out to Georgia and campaigned for Herschel Walker rather than campaigning here in Utah and participating in a debate.

Morgan Lyon Cotti: We should say that there was still a debate last night, Democrat Darlene McDonald, and United Utah candidate January Walker, and actually pretty--there were some pretty pointed moments in the debate where they really highlighted the differences between their policies and Congressman Owens.

Kerry, what really stood out to you?

How did they set them apart or what are voters looking for when we have this type of debate?

Kerry Bringhurst: Well, I think the fact that they had the courage to show up was something.

You know, debating whether there should be a debate or not, I don't know if, you know, as somebody that's been involved in that process, I think we're fortunate to have a commission that will set something up.

And so, the fact that they came and shared their opinions, and there were some very strong words said about the no-show, but it did give those candidates--and I learned a lot, it gave them an opportunity to share their ideas, and if nothing else may in the future eventually lead to conversations about why it's important to be part of the process.

I know as a voter I took it personally that I could not hear from all of the candidates, and I think those that are running against the incumbent also expressed that frustration.

These conversations need to happen.

Morgan Lyon Cotti: Interesting.

Amy, you were just talking about the redistricting.

Is that the only reason that we're seeing that this is not as competitive as it used to be?

Because before the redistricting this was considered what they call an R+13, you have that 13-point advantage for a Republican, and now it's just 3 points higher, it's R+16.

Is that--did that make that much of a difference?

Amy Donaldson: I mean, I think so.

Because I think, I mean, I look at what Mia Love did in Congress and how voters held her accountable, and I look at what Burgess Owens has done in Congress and how he has or has not been held accountable, and I--that's the only thing I can account for, it's the difference in the voters.

Some voters I've talked to don't know they're in CD-4 since the change, so--and when you look at, I think it's Holladay that's divided up four ways, right?

You have an intersection there where, you know, one mayor represents four districts, and I just--when we talk about community and dignity and looking at other factors besides political or partisanship, I wonder if that is really the world we want to live in, or if we really want our leaders to be accountable to us, maybe we oughta live in the, you know, like, have the district be the people who live there, and local leaders can hold the congressional leaders accountable.

I think that's where you get some of the best policy interactions.

Robert Gehrke: Not to diminish Darlene McDonald, but in each of the previous elections we've also had an incumbent Democrat with Jim Matheson or Ben McAdams who have made that race competitive.

It's really hard as a Democrat to win in this state.

Amy Donaldson: Somebody with name recognition, Ben had been the Salt Lake County Mayor, so I think you had someone who had-- Darlene was well known in political circles, but I don't know that she's well known outside of that, so you're right about that.

Morgan Lyon Cotti: Is that what it takes moving forward?

And we should also mention the race between Mia Love and Doug Owens, who also comes from a large, well known Democratic family.

Is that what it would take for Democrats to be more competitive?

Robert Gehrke: I think it takes the ability--well, in that district you're just not going to be competitive.

And I can say I think that, you know, I know Congressman McAdams, former Congressman McAdams was looking at running in this election, but after he saw redistricting, there was just no way he was going to be able to do it because no Democrat can win in any of those four districts.

It's almost impossible.

So, what it's gonna take is better districts, and that might include the lawsuit that's pending now.

It's going to take a well-known, well-funded Democrat who can win.

The alternative is this Evan McMullin path we're seeing.

And I think that might serve as a model going forward, because you can win if you can put together that coalition.

Amy Donaldson: And I also think you're seeing an evolution in the voting--in the voters.

When you see younger voters coming in who don't necessarily hold their parents and grandparents's political ideologies, that may be what shifts it, right?

So, I think that's--and people moving in from out of state, more interesting.

Morgan Lyon Cotti: So, what role does the Utah Democratic Party play in all of this?

And where is the party?

What is happening with the party?

Why aren't they able to encourage some of these more well-known political supporters?

Kerry Bringhurst: That's the million-dollar question.

Like, how do you get people to run if they're really tilting at a windmill, right?

So, you're gonna spend a lot of your time, energy, and emotion investing in a race that everybody says you're gonna lose, right?

So, that--I think that is-- that's the difficult--or, like, Kael Weston's a great candidate.

Why didn't somebody talk to him about running in a different race and then support this strategy?

I don't know, I don't-- I'm not involved in the Democratic Party, so I don't know, but I do think some of those longer-term strategies would be interesting to-- Morgan Lyon Cotti: And one of the way--places we're seeing Democrats really invest more funds and energy is in Salt Lake County in some of these races, and we talked so much about the 50-50 Senate and the majority in the house, but one thing that surprises some people is that Republicans hold a majority in the Salt Lake County Council, and we have some pretty competitive races there.

I know, Robert, you focused a lot about this recently in your research and your writing, and you're really looking at the Council race between Democrat Suzanne Harrison and Republican Richard Snelgrove.

What should voters and even people outside of Salt Lake County be payin' attention to?

Robert Gehrke: Well, I think that one of the things that makes this race important is we saw Sheldon Stewart, a Republican, knock off a more moderate Republican, so that six to three majority could become even more conservative.

Suzanne is a state legislator whose district was basically dissolved during the most recent redistricting.

Richard Snelgrove, obviously, has been in politics a long, long time, but these county-wide races, I think, are sort of the ease--the best opportunity for Democrats to make some inroads.

Shireen Ghorbani was upset last time, and that was kind of an upset.

People, I think, expected her to win.

But there is an opportunity for Democrats to shift this county council a little bit, make it a little bit more even, make it a five-four council, and I think it's gonna be a heck of a race.

She's out-raised him almost ten to one, she's got a reputation for being a very hard worker, and so I'm eager to see how this one plays out.

Morgan Lyon Cotti: Amy, in just our last 10 or 20 seconds, is this how Democrats maybe make inroads and sort of build that pipeline of name recognition?

Amy Donaldson: Absolutely, and I think if you look across the country at what Republicans did when Democrats took control of the national government, they went and they won state houses.

That's how you--that's how you make a difference.

Morgan Lyon Cotti: Thank you so much for this wonderful conversation, and thank you for watching "The Hinckley Report."

The show is also available as a podcast on PBSUtah.org/HinckleyReport or wherever you get your podcasts.

Thank you for being with us, and we will see you next week.

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