(intense piano music) (camera beeps) (exciting orchestra music) - Welcome to "Capitol View" our look inside and outside the Illinois State Capital.

I'm Jennifer Fuller.

Our guests this week are John O'Connor of the Associated Press, and Capitol News Illinois Bureau Chief Jerry Nowicki.

Gentlemen, thanks for joining us.

- Thank you, Jen.

- Thanks, yeah, thank you.

- Big economic news to start with this week, with the announcement from Caterpillar the heavy manufacturing company, has announced that it's moving its headquarters out of Illinois to Texas.

Now there's a lot of reaction on both sides of the political aisle to this.

We see Governor Pritzker saying we're talking about a couple of hundred office jobs, not manufacturing jobs.

And at the same time, he says the manufacturer has added manufacturing jobs in Illinois, over the last couple of years.

Republicans on the other hand are saying, "Hey, this is another illustration "that Illinois is bad for business."

Jerry, what's the fallout from this?

And, of course, you know, it follows the news of Boeing doing something similar.

- It does and I think the big thing about Caterpillar is it's called Illinois home for about a hundred years.

There's still going to be about 17,000 manufacturing jobs from the company here.

We don't know if those are going to move out in the future.

I mean, it's pointless to speculate whether that'll happen or not, but just the fact that they've viewed Irving, Texas as a better spot than Illinois.

I think it was about five years ago that Caterpillar moved its headquarters from Peoria to Deerfield.

So it didn't have too many, you know, it hadn't been in Deerfield that long but the fact that Illinois wasn't the right fit for it, now...

I think it's certainly something that you have to consider if you're a lawmaker in the state.

But you know... And it sort of upstaged a Monday announcement from the Governor that Ferrero North America was expanding its chocolate manufacturing footprint in the Bloomington/Normal area by about 200 jobs or so.

And then the next day, you see Caterpillar's leaving.

So the Governor's trying to tout the winds where he can but his opponents will have an easy sell trying to tie that to the state's business-related policies.

- John, when it comes to the Republican line on this that Illinois is bad for business, that there are businesses and corporations moving at least their headquarters, if not their entire operation, to states like Texas, where there is no income tax or there are better incentives.

How critical is it that Illinois kind of change that message and be able to attract these larger companies?

- Well, it's a question, I guess.

First of all, I wonder, if it is actually Caterpillar, the heavy manufacturer, that's going to Texas or whether Texas Governor Greg Abbott knows what company's coming.

I saw a tweet from Governor Abbott that welcomed "Caterpillar," C-A-T-A-P-I-L-L-A-R, so...

I guess that's...

They're not as...

They need to get steeped in the tradition of Cat that Illinois, as Jerry mentioned earlier.

And I think this kinda move is more psychologically damaging.

I mean, the psychological damage is as great or greater than the economic damage.

And we saw this in terms of the climate changing.

We had four years of Republican Governor Bruce Rauner from 2015 to 2019 saying that very thing.

We've got a bad climate for business.

He wanted to make changes in collective bargaining, in the way corporations are taxed.

And the response from the Democrats was always, sure we could change our laws and be more like a Tennessee or another state in the south where, right-to-work state.

They're more...

They contended that they're more, you know...

Workplace injuries, for example That, you know, regulations are not as tight.

So it's a trade-off, one way or another.

I guess the messaging has to be that if you're not gonna change the way business is done in Illinois is that Illinois is ...

It's hard, I guess.

The people, the laborers, benefit from collective bargaining from strong unions that have safety rules and higher wages, probably, than other places.

They're not the big campaign contributors.

(chuckles) And so it's hard to draw corporations in by saying, "You'll pay your workers more."

- Sure, sure.

That's just one of the things that Governor Pritzker is going to have to work on, in terms of messaging, and whoever his Republican challenger turns out to be for the November election.

Another, I suppose, bad news headline is that we're hearing again of a COVID outbreak at an Illinois Veterans' Home, this time in Manteno.

More than a dozen people infected, at least one person infected but asymptomatic has died.

John, coupled with LaSalle and this argument over whether LaSalle and the Quincy Veterans' Home issue with Legionnaire's disease are the same, or even comparable.

How damaging is this outbreak, which we're just learning about this week, and how bad could it get, do you think?

- Well, the response from the Pritzker Administration, as I read in Jerry's story, as a matter of fact, seems to be pretty swift, or at least they're making it sound as if they're being pretty swift.

I think the lesson was learned from LaSalle.

And this is a case.

This is a situation where we're we're post-vaccine, so a lot of these, according to the Department of Veterans' Affairs, a lot of the people were asymptomatic.

One person who died was on hospice care and died shortly after receiving a booster shot.

What's damaging about Manteno is LaSalle.

LaSalle was so poorly handled.

This is a facility that, through the the worst part of the pandemic, the early part when eight months, 10 months, eight months without any, any COVID whatsoever.

And then once it was introduced, and it should have never been introduced, because there were just rules that were not, you know, basic public health rules that were not being followed.

It just spread like wildfire.

And there was a very slow response.

So had LaSalle been handled a lot better, Manteno wouldn't be as much of a problem, but all an opponent of Governor Pritzker has to say is we've got people dying at an another Veterans' Home, and this is horrible.

So, you know, that resonates with people.

- Sure, sure.

Jerry, in your reporting on this, do you agree that the response is swifter, it appears to be more coordinated than LaSalle?

- I think that was the goal of the news release that was sent out yesterday was to say, you know, hey, IDPH is here.

We're following all these protocols, different protocols than were in place than in 2020, during the LaSalle Home outbreak.

I'm still waiting on a few follow-up questions, as of the time of this discussion, just to try to figure out, was there a symptomatic individual that necessitated the added testing or was it just a routine testing that showed up this positive case and they tested everybody?

There's a little bit of clarity I'm still trying to get, even on the person who died, trying to find out his age and a couple other things that I haven't gotten response from DVA yet.

But the fact that IDPH was there, according to the Veterans' Affairs Department, hours after the test.

I mean, it's certainly a different response than we saw with LaSalle and all of the residents are now vaccinated, of course.

In November 2020, vaccine wasn't out yet when the first outbreak 36 people died.

All the residents affected now were vaccinated.

The person who died died, they said, hours after their booster and hours after a positive test.

So I don't know they tested positive first and then they gave him the booster but whatever happened there.

But anyway, the fact that the vaccine is here makes this a considerably different story than what we saw in November, 2020.

Hopefully the vaccine does its job and the symptoms remain mild as DVA has said they are for these individuals thus far.

Some don't have symptoms at all, they say, so hopefully this is as big as the story gets.

You don't want to see your veterans dying.

You don't wanna see people in state care.

You don't wanna see anyone dying because of a virus, but yeah, it's not gonna...

Even if this is handled successfully, it's not going to mute the impact that LaSalle's going to have on the election and that it's had on so many people's lives.

- Certainly and speaking of the election, we continue to see new polling and analysis of the original polling from the Chicago Sun Times and Chicago Public Radio, WBEZ, that showed a big jump for state Senator Darren Bailey in his race for the GOP nomination for Governor.

That gap appears to be widening.

He's even increasing his lead over Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin.

Jerry, is there any point at this or any way at this point that you think that the tide changes or is Darren Bailey looking like the presumptive nominee?

- Hey, I wouldn't say presumptive nominee at this point, but the polls certainly indicate that Richard Irvin is not connecting with voters.

Maybe that's because every time he goes up in a news conference, it seems like he's trying to stick to one or two talking points and he's just repeating them over and over again.

But something there, the voters are just not connecting with him, even if he believes that he could get things done in Springfield.

Whereas Darren Bailey, who only passed two bills in his two terms in office, maybe couldn't get things done.

You know, the voters don't want to hear that.

They... it appears, these polls suggest, that Darren Bailey is viewed as more sincere and far more likable, I think, is one of the main takeaways I got.

I think Darren Bailey was way ahead on likability, viewed favorably and Richard Irvin was under water as they say, in that he was more unfavorable with voters than he was favorable.

- John, is this a question of candidates or is this an issue of perhaps a seat change in the Illinois Republican Party?

We heard Senate Republican Leader Dan McConchie earlier this year saying that the Illinois GOP is not the party of Trump, but with Darren Bailey and a a highly conservative base, is that changing?

- I'm not sure if it's something that the Trump crowd would like to see change.

I was in Athens, which is about 20 minutes north of Springfield, on Wednesday, on Tuesday of this week to see Darren Bailey appear at a bar and grill there.

He's on a 102 counties in before election day.

And the stop, there, was one that I heard that repeatedly from people who appeared, that the Republican Party has lost touch.

The traditional Republican Party is not working for the people.

And likability is...

This is a group that almost to a person mentioned that Darren Bailey knows how to communicate.

He's been communicating from day one.

They're really impressed about his challenge of Governor Pritzker in the courts on a mask mandate, which he won in the Court of Jurisdiction where he filed it, but then was not successful in later proceedings to apply to the entire state.

They're strongly enamored of him because of his faith.

I was unaware and I was told.

I was educated about his daily devotional, "The Daily Bailey."

He's got a devotional online every day.

And so this is a very traditional conservative base for Bailey.

And I'll add that one Trump-endorsed candidate, Mary Miller for Congress who's running against another incumbent, Mr. Davis.

(chuckles) His first name is... - [Jennifer] Rodney Davis, yeah.

- Yes, thank you, Rodney Davis.

And she was there and she spoke and spoke very highly, introduced Darren Bailey.

And, you know, it was kind of interesting to see that kind of connection there.

- Sure, and that connection is even drawing a higher profile name, perhaps, in that we're seeing yard signs.

We're seeing people talk about a potential tie to former President Donald Trump.

Trump has not made an endorsement in the Republican race for Governor in Illinois, but there's some thought that maybe a late June visit to Illinois could include him kind of shaking hands and giving his support to Senator Bailey.

Jerry, does he need that support?

Does he need that official endorsement from President Trump in order to kind of push things over the finish line?

- If you look at the polls, you'd think no, but it would certainly solidify that.

There's a lot of undecided voters in a lot of those polls that have come out recently.

So usually those don't all break for one candidate, as they would likely need to for Richard Irvin to reach that threshold, but, you know, Trump is a bump especially in a Republican primary.

I don't know if that'll translate to the general.

It could.

I'm not saying it won't.

I think...

I don't make election predictions and I think it'll just have to be something to play out.

And I think we'll just have to watch that to see how it would play out in the long run if he gets it.

- Sure, and John we've seen kind of a bump for some candidates and for other candidates, perhaps, perhaps not the same level of success when President Trump makes endorsements in other primaries, so far this year.

Do you think it makes a big difference in Illinois?

- No.

The Republican primary is... could very well be like the the final stage.

If I'm a Republican running for Governor and I get the nomination that's...

In Illinois, that's almost, these days, almost the crowning achievement because you've got such a hill to climb in November.

In 2010, Republican Senator Bill Brady of Bloomington won every state, every county, outside of Cook, in his race against incumbent Democratic Governor Pat Quinn and Quinn won Cook County.

Trump doesn't play well in Cook County.

And I will say that if Darren Bailey continues with the message, I think that one of the things downstaters see about Bailey and Irvin is that Irvin is from the metropolis, the metropolitan area.

He understands north of I-80 He's very attuned to crime in Chicago.

As Jerry mentioned, he's just very focused on that issue but doesn't know anything about down state.

Whereas Darren Bailey is a farmer.

He understands down state and he also has an understanding of the problems of Chicago.

So there's the difference there, but again, whether that translates into a win in November is a much bigger question.

- Sure, John, you mentioned the gun and violence issues in the City of Chicago.

That's become a campaign issue, something Republicans are already criticizing Governor Pritzker and Chicago's mayor about the number of of gun crimes and violence within the city.

There was reporting from WTTW's Amanda Vinicky this week, and of course, Amanda is a panelist on this program, from time to time, that looked at ways that Illinois might be changing some of its own gun regulations, in the wake of the Uvalde school massacre and other issues going on within the City of Chicago and across the country.

Those changes go anywhere from updates to the FOID laws to closing loopholes, to even so-called micro printing of of ammunition, a way to track ammunition in a little bit more accurate way.

John, I'll start with you.

Any chance that those gun rules will change and would those changes move the needle do you think?

- There's always a good chance they'll change in Illinois because of the large super majorities that Democrats hold in both houses of the legislature.

Although, once again, it's always wise to remember how different the state is from Rockford to Kyero, that we're talking about two different worlds, really, more conservative Democrats occupy Southern Illinois and are much stronger Second Amendment advocates.

As to whether they'll move the needle, you know, the idea of micro stamping of what apparently occurs in New York apparently has adopted this law is that when a firearm is fired, it imprints a number on the casing, so that even in an instance where a crime is committed and there's no gun at the scene, a gun can't be recovered, there will be shell casings and allegedly, you can trace the gun by using these numbers on these casings.

I would say that, you know, that's not gonna stop gun violence.

However, I believe that the number of unsolved gun crimes is phenomenally high.

And so, you know, in terms of solving those crimes and catching perpetrators, that might make a difference.

And then we see, you know, one of the things the conservatives always say is put these people away for life, you know, and we've tried that, and we've got very... We've got full prisons as a result of that, but here, maybe it would make a difference of deterring others knowing that, you know, if I fire this gun, I'm gonna throw the gun in the river but the casing is still gonna be there unless I go and collect all the casings.

- Sure and Jerry what's your temperature on this?

I mean, does it change the way that Illinois is viewed or perceived on either side of the gun control debate?

- Well, I think with... Will it change the way many people think?

I don't know that on the guns too many people are willing to have their opinions changed but what you often hear the Governor say, what you often hear Mayor Lightfoot say, is most of the guns in Chicago shootings come from states like Missouri or other neighboring states.

So you can only do so much as the State of Illinois to regulate firearms.

Chicago has strict bans, but they come in there from other places, the weapons, that is.

So you're gonna have a challenge trying to make much of a wave on guns from a state legislature perspective.

It doesn't mean they're not going to try.

That doesn't mean there's not a reason to try, but I think, you know, the FOID had a pretty significant overhaul, was it last year, somewhere?

Something like last year.

That sort of gave Illinois State Police greater authority to revoke guns from people who've had their cards revoked or expired or whatnot.

So there's been changes to the FOID.

Guns are certainly going to be an election issue.

I just don't know how much many people are going to move on that issue.

- Sure.

Just about a minute or so remaining.

And Jerry, I wanted to ask you about a new potential settlement in the ComEd scandal.

There's a proposal before the Illinois Commerce Commission that rate payers in ComEd, customers within Com Ed's territory, might be able to get a 38 million dollar payout.

It would be, of course, spread across all those customers, in regards to the bribery scandal that's surrounding that company.

It includes former House Speaker Michael Madigan.

Is this going to be enough to change the culture when it comes to these types of scandals in Illinois?

- Well, I don't know that I, you know...

There's always gonna be people trying to do things they shouldn't do as long as there's positions of power.

But I think what's changing the culture with ComEd is the Federal investigative activity, more so than any civil thing would do.

You got indictments coming down left and right.

That's probably the better contributor to culture change.

- Certainly.

We are less than two weeks now before the Illinois primary on June 28th.

Early voting, of course, is open across the state.

And we'll certainly be keeping an eye on those issues and much more right here on "Capitol View."

But unfortunately we're out of time.

Lots more to talk about.

And we hope that you join us next time.

John O'Connor, Jerry Nowicki, thank you so much for joining us.

- Thank you.

- Thank you.

- And I'm Jennifer Fuller.

We'll catch you next time on "Capitol View."

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