THAT'S GOOD FOR THE ADMINISTRATION OF ELECTIONS IN WISCONSIN.

>> WITH ELECTION 2024 ALREADY HEATING UP, THE LATEST STATEWIDE POLLING ON CANDIDATES, SITTING POLITICIANS AND ISSUES TAKES THE PUBLIC TEMPERATURE IN WISCONSIN.

THE NEW MARQUETTE LAW SCHOOL POLL FINDS SOME INTERESTING RESULTS.

HERE TO TALK ABOUT IT, POLL DIRECTOR CHARLES FRANKLIN.

THANK YOU FOR BEING HERE.

THE APPROVAL RATING JUMP IS INTERESTING.

>> IT'S QUITE A JUMP.

>> 57 PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS PROVE OF THE JOB HE'S DOING WHILE 38 PERCENT DISAPPROVE AND HIS APPROVAL RATING HAS GONE UP 11 POINTS SINCE THE LAST ELECTION.

WHAT IN YOUR MIND EXPLAINS THIS?

>> TWO THINGS.

YOU'RE IN THE HEAT OF AN ELECTORAL BATTLE AND HE'S HAD A PRETTY GOOD LEGISLATIVE SESSION.

HE CERTAINLY HASN'T GOT MOST OF WHAT HE WANTED BUT HE'S GOTTEN A FAIR BIT OF WHAT HE WANTED.

SO I THINK THE SPRING HAS BEEN FAIRLY GOOD.

IT'S ALSO STRIKING THAT HE'S THE ONE PERSON WHO'S REALLY HAD THIS SUBSTANTIAL RISE IN APPROVAL SINCE OCTOBER.

OTHER RISES ARE MUCH MORE MODEST.

SO I THINK WE HAVE TO GIVE CREDIT TO HIM.

>> ON THE OTHER HAND, YOUR POLL SAYS 40 PERCENT SAY IT'S GOING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.

COULD THAT BE SOMETHING OTHER THAN TONY EVERS?

>> I THINK WE'RE SEEING THAT USED TO BE A MEASURE OF HOW GOOD A JOB THE INCUMBENT'S DOING, BUT NOW IF YOU'RE A DEMOCRAT YOU BLAME REPUBLICANS FOR WHY WE'RE HEADED OFF IN THE WRONG DIRECTION AND IF YOU'RE REPUBLICANS YOU BLAME THE DEMOCRATS FOR THE SAME THING.

THERE'S A LOT OF ACROSS THE AISLE POINTING.

WE SEE IN THE NATIONAL AND STATE NUMBERS.

IT DOESN'T MEAN WHAT IT USED TO MEAN ABOUT WHETHER THINGS ARE GOOD OR BAD.

>> IN THE GOP PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY, AMONG REPUBLICANS AND THOSE WHO LEAN REPUBLICAN WHEN ACCOUNTING FOR ALL THE GOP CANDIDATES OUT THERE IT'S EVEN BETWEEN DONALD TRUMP AND RON DESANTIS, 31 PERCENT AND 30 PERCENT.

WITH 21 PERCENT UNDECIDED, THAT SEEMS LIKE A BIG NUMBER.

WHEN ASKED WHO THEY WOULD PICK WHEN ONLY BETWEEN THOSE TWO, 57 PERCENT CHOSE DeSANTIS OVER 41 PERCENT FOR TRUMP.

WHAT DO ALL THESE NUMBERS SAY?

>> WELL, FIRST OF ALL, IT'S REALLY SURPRISING BECAUSE IN NATIONAL POLLING TRUMP IS LEADING DeSANTIS BY AT LEAST DOUBLE DIGITS AND THAT'S BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT INCLUDING IN OUR NATIONAL POLLING.

I WAS SURPRISED BY THAT NUMBER.

BUT WHAT WE SEE IS THAT OF THE PEOPLE THAT WOULD LIKE SOMEBODY OTHER THAN DeSANTIS OR TRUMP OR ARE UNDECIDED, THEY GO 65 TO 75 PERCENT TO DeSANTIS WHEN YOU ASK THE HEAD TO HEAD QUESTION.

ONLY ABOUT A QUARTER OF THEM MOVE TO TRUMP.

TRUMP IS GETTING A LOT OF SUPPORT FROM HIS BASE WITHIN THE PARTY BUT OF THE 30 PERCENT OF REPUBLICANS THAT DON'T LIKE TRUMP, HE GOT ZERO PERCENT ON THE HEAD-TO-HEAD QUESTION.

SO IT'S NOT, YOU KNOW, THOSE THAT LIKE HIM STILL LIKE HIM QUITE A BIT BUT THERE IS THIS SEGMENT, A MINORITY OF 30 PERCENT, THAT REALLY DON'T LIKE TRUMP AND ARE LOOKING FOR ANY ALTERNATIVE.

>> SO AS FOR EITHER OF THE TWO FRONTRUNNING REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES FOR PRESIDENT, YOUR POLL SHOWED A CLOSE MATCH-UP BETWEEN JOE BIDEN AND DeSANTIS WITH 4 PERCENT UNDECIDED IN THE HYPOTHETICAL MATCH-UP BETWEEN BIDEN, HE DOES MUCH BETTER AGAINST TRUMP, 52 PERCENT TO 43 PERCENT.

SO AS A CANDIDATE, DONALD TRUMP HAS SOME WORK TO DO IN THIS IMPORTANT SWING STATE.

>> YES, I THINK THAT IS CERTAINLY THE CASE AND IT GOES PARTLY TO THE ELECTABILITY ARGUMENT.

IT ALSO GOES TO THE FACT THAT TRUMP IS STILL GETTING 94 AND 95 PERCENT OF THE REPUBLICAN VOTE WHEN HE'S MATCHED UP AGAINST BIDEN.

DeSANTIS GETS ALMOST EXACTLY THE SAME REPUBLICAN SUPPORT THERE.

SO IT'S NOT REPUBLICANS DESERTING TRUMP AT ALL.

WHAT IT IS, IS THE INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN A LITTLE BIT TO BIDEN VERSUS DeSANTIS AND MOVE HEAVILY TO BIDEN WHEN IT'S TRUMP.

IT'S WINNING YOUR PRIMARY WITH A LOT OF TRUE BELIEVERS BUT MOVING ON TO A GENERAL ELECTION YOU NEED TO APPEAL TO INDEPENDENTS.

AND AT LEAST THIS MONTH IN THIS SAMPLE, TRUMP IS DOING NOTICEABLY WORSE WITH INDEPENDENTS THAN DeSANTIS IS.

REMEMBER, WE ARE IN THE FIELD THE DAY AND FOLLOWING THE INDICTMENT OF TRUMP.

DIDN'T HURT HIM WITH REPUBLICANS BUT IT MAY BE THAT THAT'S PART OF WHAT'S GOING ON WITH THESE INDEPENDENTS AND LOOKING AHEAD TO THE GENERAL.

>> INTERESTING CONTEXT.

SO AS FOR SITTING U.S.

SENATOR TAMMY BALDWIN, ALSO UP FOR RE-ELECTION, HER FAVORABILITY RATING TICKED UP 3 POINTS FROM LAST OCTOBER, NOW SITTING AT 40 PERCENT FAVORABLE, 37 PERCENT UNFAVORABLE BUT 22 PERCENT HAVE NOT HEARD ENOUGH ABOUT HER.

SHE MUST STILL BE FORMIDABLE THOUGH BECAUSE NOBODY HAS FORMALLY DECLARED AGAINST HER.

>> THAT'S RIGHT.

THAT'S 22 PERCENT IS IN LINE WITH WHERE SHE HAS BEEN THE LAST TWO OR THREE YEARS.

RON JOHNSON IS USUALLY IN THE 30s.

THOUGH WHEN ELECTIONS COME YOU GET THAT NUMBER DOWN TO 10 PERCENT THAT DON'T KNOW ENOUGH.

IT'S A BIG ELECTION EFFECT.

WHEN WE ASKED ABOUT FOUR POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN CHALLENGERS BETWEEN 50 AND 85 PERCENT DIDN'T KNOW ENOUGH ABOUT ANY OF THOSE.

UNTIL SOMEBODY OFFICIALLY GETS IN AND THE RACE HEATS UP AND THEY'RE CAMPAIGNING, NO CHALLENGER IS GOING TO LOOK VERY GOOD ON THE NAME RECOGNITION SIDE AND IN PERSPECTIVE BALDWIN HAS A LITTLE ADVANTAGE OF BEING WELL KNOWN BUT THE CHALLENGERS WHEN THEY DO GET IN WILL BUILD RECOGNITION OVER THE NEXT 18