Let's talk about the undergirling issues.

Every state has its own preoccupations, but um diesel fuel, gasoline prices, uh data centers and corruption and corrupt.

No, go ahead.

Yeah, time for both of them.

Go ahead.

Right.

I think Yeah, we could both do corruption.

I think it's it's just indicative of the ways that all of the things that we're talking about now.

In the same way that, you know, any midterm election is going to be a referendum on the president's policies, what we're seeing right now is a referendum on the president's policies over the last two years, right?

You you have the war in Iran that he can't tether to Joe Biden and say, "Oh, your prices are up because of Joe Biden."

Because that's that's fuel as a result of something that nobody most Americans wouldn't have known about last year, which is the straight of four moves.

Um, right?

If you if you ran a poll from January of 2025 or 2020, even this year, and said, you know, have you ever heard of the straight of four moves?

Most people would say no.

But now they can tether um the president's policy specifically from the war on down.

It's why it's why you see folks like you said sort of trying to walk away or Mike Rogers walking away from uh the president and trying to to sever to sever that tie and the and the administration sort of letting them do that.

So if alternate history here if he hadn't gone to war with Iran and then I don't want to say lose because it's not a loss yet but it's not a win.

uh and the Iranians hadn't discovered for themselves that oh we can stop oil from moving to the straight of hormones.

They knew that a long time ago actually um would we even be having this conversation about the Republican uh Republicans on the defensive?

I I think that's a such a good question and it's a topic that comes up um repeatedly when I talk to my Republican sources who some of whom are very close to Trump, very close to the administration and they have been saying um candidly since really since March, this war is going to kill us.

This war is killing us.

and they they point they they say that they could have overcome the tariffs um even some of the immigration roundups which have become very unpopular which we haven't talked about but you know surprisingly immigration has been an area where um Trump has has lost well he's certainly losing what he whatever he gained in Hispanic votes obviously but but they really feel that the war and the increase in prices and the increase specifically to your point in diesel prices because that is what drives up the the food co food costs and is hitting so hard in these farm states.

Yeah, the farm states.

It's I mean heard it over and over again this week in Kansas.

You see it in Iowa.

He took two major moves this week.

One, you know, just today to lift sanctions on Russia to allow Russian diesel fuel to come and sort of come to the aid and also um his EO on the um the red dye and the red dye diesel which which the farmers will tell you does nothing.

Right.

John, I wanted to ask you about that.

I mean, he's now importing diesel, small amount of diesel from Russia, which I should point out imports soldiers from North Korea to fight the US backed Ukrainian government, it's quite it's quite a move.

Um, is it going to make any difference in diesel prices?

And even if you could move diesel prices in two or 3 weeks, is it too late?

Is this thing fixed?

Look, I I I I think that the Russia deal actually is going to make a big difference.

Not with diesel prices, but it's going to help Russia.

uh you know it's a uh it it's a lifeline to the Russian economy.

It'll have a much greater impact there which is why you saw the reaction you saw from Zilinski today.

I mean about as you know strong a reaction back on this.

This is this is not something that's going to move the needle in the United States on diesel prices but but it but it does move the needle perhaps uh in Ukraine.

Carrie, I have a question about and this is sort of like political like fantasy football kind of thing, but but um and it's nobody's I'm not saying it's any of our fantasies.

It's just interesting.

This the the the Senate could be 40 5149, right?

We come out of this at 5149.

Does Federman of Pennsylvania jumped the Republican party, which would of course make the Senate 5150 because Vance would be the tiebreaking vote.

Is that a possibility that Federman would actually jump if the Republicans promised him enough?

I mean, I will say I have John Federman has been asked this question probably five dozen times, right?

It is not a recent development, right?

Um whether it was in the context of it being a the control of the Senate or just generally because of some of the votes that he's taken and because of the way that he specifically that he's talked about the Israel issue, he has said absolutely not every single time that I have seen him been asked.

Um I don't want to speculate what happens when all of that pressure is on him.

Um because there will be pressure and its endorsement and an an immense amount of pressure on him.

I we can just point to the the record in the past of he's saying I mean you can see from his perspective um because of these votes that he's taken.

He has has very little and if you could probably say no path to get through a Democratic primary if run away run again.

Um you do you have seen polling that shows he is more popular in his home state among Republicans than Democrats.

Um and also if you just watch him on the hill you know you see him hanging out with with Republicans whether it's Katie Brit or Dave McCormack.

I mean he seems to have more of a natural affinity there.

So you can understand why the you know the ingredients are certainly and there's a reason he's been asked the question five dozen times.

I mean he is friendly with Republicans.

Sure.

He spoke at the Republican convention, midterm convention in Dallas.

Uh I mean, this is You're like Sherlock Holmes.

I think I think there's a possibility he's going to switch parties.

Noticing a pattern now.

Um I mean, I we we all saw this happen.

Well, some of us were old enough to, you know, in in in 2001 when Jim Jeffs, who was the Republican senator from the state of Vermont, it was a 50/50 Senate.

You broke that story.

Yeah.

Yeah.

And I remember that since you reminded me of it.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

I remember that.

Um but but but the pressure and and and the reward can be quite high, right?

Um I want to talk about the president in our remaining few minutes.

I I just want to note um that the president posted on Truth Social the following message uh on Thursday.

Uh the White House considers anyone that uses the term artificial intelligence as opposed to the highly accepted new and more accurate term super intelligence the enemy.

So he's clearly focused on the midterm elections and the consequence.

I mean he's really he's really getting right at the heart of the the matter.

I mean this is I mean you two are in the White House uh all the time.

uh what are they saying about the president's uh attention to to this and um does he even care?

Yeah, I mean look, yes, he does care.

I mean, he he does care and I think um there is a little bit more um you know, there's a little bit more kind of deeper under the surface here.

I mean, you know, one thing I would say, I mean, first of all, he's going to spend a lot of the next month on the road and he is traveling to these the states.

He's going to Alaska.

He's going to Alaska and there's a reason for that.

He knows that he is the best person at turning out this MAGA coalition.

And the Republicans are right about that.

And if you talk to people at the White House, they will say to you, look, we have we have heard these naysayers before.

We have heard Washington write us off in 2016.

And I, you know, I can go through, we are all familiar with the elections.

Um, they say that we are on we're playing on a a red playing field that these are Republican voters.

These these races are going to narrow.

the polling will narrow.

You talk to Democrats and they will tell you the same thing that these races are going to come closer together towards the end, right?

And they have the money.

They have a lot more money.

If he loses Congress, Adam, this is a large essay question that I'd like you to answer in 60 seconds, but what does it mean for him and his party?

I mean, as a lame duck, right, I think it means investigations.

I think what we saw um right before the house broke for recess where you had Pete Pete Hexith brought up um for you know impeachment right I think what we will see is several investigations potential impeachment inquiries into both cabinet members and the president um and and effectively it's it's jamming up any semblance of an agenda or success in an agenda that he would see for u John last word to you on this because you've obviously covered the man himself How would he react to the loss of Congress?

I mean, I think that's the big question is how does Trump what are the last two years of a Trump presidency look like with his back against his wall looking at a Democratic Congress that is gunning for him?

Um, and we we've seen what he's like with the back against the wall and and I think most dramatically we saw that after he lost the 2020 election.

Uh, and he drove that fight further than anybody could have imagined he would drive it to January 6th.

And I I I don't know.

There's going to be two paths he can take.

He can take that path.

Mhm.

God knows what that means.

You mean just sort of self-radicalizing kind of way and just just dig in and war with Remember the Congress and the president have to actually work together to like make the government function.

They have to pass bills and all this.

Yes.

Yes.

So I mean, but the last time he this happened, we saw the longest shutdown in American history, right?

So does he does he go and in that direction or is it the dealmaker?

Uh does he feel like, you know, just like I can get a deal with the Iranians, which he hasn't quite pulled off yet.

Uh but but but he loves to, you know, to to deal with the the people you can't deal with.

Does he make it with Democrats?

Well, we'll find out soon enough.

I mean, uh we are going to have to leave it there, though.

Um, I want to thank our guests for joining me and thank you at home for watching us.

Be sure to join us next week for a special hourlong Washington Week on the fight to control Congress.

We'll be broadcasting from the battleground state of Texas, the home of one of the country's most expensive and closely watched Senate races.

I'm Jeffrey Goldberg.

Good night from Washington.