Evan, Jeff, um, on behalf of the 49 other states, could you explain Texas to us?

I cannot.

Um, I can Well, all right.

Then we're going to pivot to the tax credit.

Mark, I I I can tell you that it is the middle of October.

We're sitting here in an election year talking about whether Texas elections are competitive.

And that is not something that we're used to in the state of Texas.

It has been more than 30 years since elections in Texas have been competitive.

The last time a Democrat was elected statewide in Texas, the number one song in America was by Boys to Men.

That's how long ago it was.

November 1994.

That was the year that George Bush beat Anne Richards.

Other Democrats on the ballot won.

And since then, no Democrats have been elected.

We are looking at the possibility of a Democratic United States senator from Texas and possibly other Democratic statewide officials.

And no one really can believe that we're here 3 weeks out, right?

I mean, there's good reason not to believe it, but let me let me give you a couple of names to to uh go against the the this feeling of novelty.

Yeah.

Betto Oor, Colin Alred, right?

Uh Tyler Rico is obviously raising tons of money, right?

Um and and and getting a lot of excitement around his name.

I mean, and it's all the more surprising because he scans, at least to me as an outsider, as someone sort of socioulturally closer to like the Brooklyn liberal model, uh, rather than some kind of But it tells you something about this election that James Telerico is running ahead of a generic Democrat and Ken Paxton is running behind a generic Republican.

Yeah.

Right.

That's that's one of the reasons that this race is so close, candidate quality.

And the only reason the only reason I bring up those two names is that there was a lot of excitement around them and and and for for whatever set of reasons and maybe it's structural, maybe there's just simply more Republicans than Democrats in in a dispositive way.

For some reason, Democrats can't get over that hump.

This is not like Kansas, which never I mean, now it's competitive, but never had, you know, never had these this that run of close calls for the Democrats, if you will.

So, so I'm not asking you to predict what's going to happen, but I'm asking you to predict what's gonna happen.

What's gonna happen?

Okay.

Well, let me let me first of all push back on you.

Colin Redd was never really competitive against Ted Cruz in that Senate race.

Betto or is a better analogy.

It was a Trump midterm in 2018.

It's a Trump midterm now.

But there are a couple of things that are different this time versus last time.

The first is that the political environment has migrated down to the level of Texas voters in a way that it had not in 2018.

Turnout in 2018 in Texas was unusually high for a midterm, but people in Texas, both Democrats and Republicans, both urban voters and rural voters, are pissed off this year in a way that they were not in 2018.

That is a motivating factor in this election.

The second thing is that the issue set this time is working against Republicans in a way it did not in 2018. the economy, data centers, flock cameras, vouchers.

These are all issues that are cutting against Republicans in poll after poll.

The candidate quality thing I mentioned is a big deal.

But I would also say that the dynamics of the electorate are very important.

Latinos who voted Republican in the last election have swung all the way back according to every single poll.

The the Republican party, I'm told by people in both parties, is collapsing in the Rio Grand Valley.

a number of the seats they redistricted and that to remind our national audience that is a very very heavily Hispanic majority Hispanic counties that are along the border and in South Texas where they re a lot of families that that have border police or or I I mean they're they they they lean it can lean conservative it can lean and we're probably susceptible to the idea that we're going to deport criminal migrants but they're not happy about deporting your gardener from the Home Depot checkout line right the the fact is that the the swing back of Latinos to the Democratic party is going to cost Republicans a number of those seats that they redrrew famously, right?

Can I just bring in Ashley for one second on this because I don't understand the the internal White House deliberations on these just on a pure political on a pure level of politics these deliberations u I would imagine that you know on one side you have Steven Miller who says deport as many people as you can and and and Hispanic support or non-support be damned and you have a lot of other people who are more politically sensitive to midterms among other things who are like maybe we should ease up a little it because we did actually do surprisingly well with Hispanics.

What What What's the dynamic there?

Well, I mean, there is a misconception that the Hispanic vote is monolithic and turns on immigration.

Um, and and that's not the case.

Um, a lot of Hispanic voters uh who came here illegally or whose families came here illegally want other people to do the same, right?

So, so a lot of that appeal was uh economic votes.

Um, that's the first thing, which is also not going well now.

Um but but the second thing is that yes Steen Miller is incredibly hardline on immigration as discussed.

It's one of those few core political values that Donald Trump also shares with him.

Um but there is this irony where Republicans do benefit um and and Democrats to their peril on being tough on border security.

That is sort of a norm in the United States.

Um, but it gets to what Evan was saying, the sort of rounding up people who are just waiting in a Home Depot parking lot to try to go to work and work hard or someone's babysitter.

Um, and of course what we've seen in the states, not just in Texas, from ICE, um, the the murders.

Um, there was a real backlash in in the country.

It ends up diminishing what a lot of people see genuinely as a national security issue and it turns it into a culture wars issue that right now when people can't afford to their gas, they can't afford groceries, that becomes very quickly diminished.

I think what you're what you're saying is that for a lot of people in the Trump universe, including maybe Trump himself, it is more of a culture war issue.

You wouldn't be targeting the people you're targeting if you were simply trying to enforce existing law on the border.

I think they do genuinely view it as a national security issue, but they have implemented it as part of their culture wars.

Right.

Right.

I mean, Mark, what's interesting here is that is that both parties have stumbled on immigration for opposite reasons.

The Democrats, the Biden administration did not take border security, border security seriously, much less what's going on inside the country.

And the Trump administration has moved way past the border, way north of the border, let's say, um to just sort of randomly or not randomly but very deliberately go into northern cities and start looking for illegal immigrants who are living responsible, quiet lives.

Yeah.

No, I mean the the irony of this is that Donald Trump did get elected largely on this.

I mean this was a huge issue for him and he also did a really I mean people perceived him as doing a really good job securing the border.

I mean, if he had just quit after however long it took to to feel like the border had been secured and not gone ahead with the with the next iteration of the ICE raids and the Home Depot, you know, just like the seizings and so forth, um, he this would have he this would have been a great sort of thing for him to boast over, but he sort of let it run out of control, right?

Can I say something about the culture war just on this and to come back to the Telerico race?

Hundreds of millions of dollars have come into the state from out of state to put ads on during football games and everybody in Texas watches football that have been about trans kids.

If you look at the voters preferences on issues this cycle, issues related to trans Americans are at the very bottom.

This is an election about the economy.

I think what's we're going to know this on November the 3rd, but I think what we will say is the Republicans lit hundreds of millions of dollars on fire running culture war ads in an election cycle that was still about the economy stupid diesel.

It's about the economy.

It's about the economy.

Also, just to take it a step further, the reason that the uh Kamla Harris she's for they them not you ad was so effective um during the campaign was actually in talking to both Democrat and Republican operatives, it was less about the actual trans issue and it was again in a moment of economic peril, what it was signaling was she's she's not focused on what you care about.

She's not focused on prices and on your daily life life.

That's why it was so devastating.

But now it's the exact opposite things Donald Trump is doing like talking non-stop about the ballroom, right?

He's asked a question about Iran and he holds up a huge poster board of the the Gilded Ballroom.

Um that sends the exact same signal to voters.

You're going to three supermarkets in order to use all your coupons and afford your groceries and this is what he cares about.

If I were if I were running for office right now, I would I would turn the ballroom into a data center and then point all the flock cameras at it.

Yeah, that's why I'd be very successful politician.

No, no.

You know, it's interesting.

You mentioned the money that's coming into the state, which I guess is good for the people who live in the state.

Um, but or at least the TV buyers in in the state.

Uh our our friend Leanne Caldwell reports that uh the $500 million in combined spending so far and and the estimate is that the $368 million more than Republicans were planning on spending in this race.

That's a lot of Well, it's an enormous amount of money.

And again, it's possible that all this money never would have saved Ken Paxton.

We're going to know the outcome of this race soon enough.

But one scenario here is that money could have been better used to save John Hugh said in Ohio, to save Dan Sullivan in Alaska, to save any number of other candidates.

The Kansas race, which is suddenly competitive, that money might be more helpful in Kansas ultimately than in Texas.

Yeah.

Mark, I want to ask you about um the Democrats on this.

They Democrats have a pretty bad record of picking candidates.

Remember Graham Platner?

It seems like a million years ago, you know, people people loved Graham Platner.

People love Graham Platner until they did.

No, but the Republicans have done, let's be be honest, they've done quite a job on themselves here in Texas in terms of picking uh a a a a fidly fidly unconventional candidate.

I would say they are fidly unconventional to be kind.

Yes.

Yes.

I would say that that is I was just looking for vocabulary words.

It was a great it was a great turn of phrase.

Thank you very much.

But uh so so so talk about that and talk about the particular Trump dynamic that led to the Republicans picking possibly the worst candidate they could find to run against obviously this this young and exciting liberal Democrat.

Yeah.

I mean look I mean Donald Trump got directly involved in the Texas race.

Um he did not endorse John Cornin as many were hoping he would and who would have been a much stronger candidate and we might not even Cornin would have won probably.

I would have absolutely been the favorite.

There's no question.

I mean there are other incumbents like John Houston in Ohio and Dan Sullivan in Alaska who are in big big dog fights.

But I think uh Cornin was definitely seen as a stronger general election candidate.

I I would give Democrats and Chuck Schumer in particular some credit for recruitment.

I think, you know, especially after they kind of got rescued from Platner by events, um they have a pretty good crop of Senate candidates.

Um Roy Cooper in in North Carolina, shared Brown in Ohio, Mary Pelto in Alaska, Terico here.

Um and a bunch of others.

So, I mean, they they are set up connected to their states in some organic.

Yeah.

And they're good candidates.

I mean, they've performed well.

They've overperformed in primaries and so forth with some exceptions.

But I do think also the overriding benefit they have is that Trump has just given them so much to work with.

Right.

Let's remember how we got here.

I mean, President Trump prioritized prioritized loyalty during the primaries over these qualifications.

And so so many of the people that he sort of sided with were loyal, but not necessarily people who could go on to win a general election.

They did well in the primaries, but here we are now.

You know, Republicans are facing ma major potential losses because of this.

Vivian, let's also remember how we got here.

Donald Trump int launched a war against Iran.

Now, we've been we've been in a cold war with Iran since 1979, obviously, but he he he chose the time and and the date um to to to upgrade that war, but then he didn't do the thing that you're supposed to do when you start a war, which is win.

Um and and so my question particularly in this state is that the the the fuel prices that and diesel prices that are a byproduct of not winning.

Uh how big of of of a deal is that in a state where I just I mean I know the state a little bit and everything is really far away.

Well, it's it's massive.

Look, I I fill up my car uh this week and I pay $4 and something a gallon.

The people who are long haul truckers going from one end of this very large state to another who are bringing us food, fiber, and other things that are material to our lives are paying north of $6 a gallon for diesel, which is the most it's ever been in the history of this country.

And that will take somebody who's MAGA oriented and make them unmagoriented quickly quickly.

Look, I I I do think that this is important.

But let me tell you what the most important thing that we haven't talked about yet that's going to decide this race is.

What will John Cornin's voters do?

That is the one unanswered question that we have right now.

900,000 people voted for John Cornin in the first round against Ken Paxton.

500,000 voted for John Cornin in the runoff that he lost to Ken Paxton.

The difference between Betto Oor and Ted Cruz in 2018 was 216,000 votes.

Are the Cornin people going to put two clothes pins on their nose in case one falls off and vote for Taller Rico?

Are they going to put merely one close pin on their nose and vote for Paxton?

Or are they going to skip that race?

Will there be a significant undervote?

That math is the ball game.

I'm telling you, on November 3rd, I'm just picturing how to put two clothes in on one.

Well, I think you could get it on some weird local custom that I'm Well, you know, you raise a really interesting big question about Texas Republicanism.

I mean, the only living ex-Republican president this country has is a Texan, tried and true.

The foremost Republican strategist of the past 30 years, Carl Rove is here.

Just lives over there.

And and lives over there.

And we're going to bring him out right now.

Um and and both are outcasts.

Both are outcasts in not only in their party, but in their home party.

And and and so the question for you, you've studied this more intensely than anyone.

How did this change happen?

And is there room for them and their brand of Republicanism and maybe John Cornin's brand of Republicanism in Texas's future to come back?

To come back.

Yeah.

Well, let me say I've lived long enough to see everything.

Suddenly George Bush is a liberal.

Yeah.

Right.

There was a time in Austin, Texas when George W. Bush, Carl Ro, these were the most conservative people you ever did meet.

And now George W. Bush could not get through a Republican primary in Texas.

Bush is a four-letter word in Texas.

Anybody associated with that administration, with that brand of politics is an outcast in the Republican party.

I I can't believe it.

But how deep is that?

Well, I think it's deep in the sense that a lot of people who were once that guy don't even run for office anymore because they know they're going to get killed in a primary.

Right now, it is the other end, the Trump end of the party that is dominant in politics in Texas.

Now, we're going to see whether this election is a rebuke of that end of the Republican party, but the Bush crowd for the moment is on the sidelines, right?

Is on the sidelines.

And and and there are really good politicians.

I'm going to cite one.

The mayor of Fort Worth, Texas, Maddie Parker, who is one of the most, in my experience, interesting politicians in this country.

She is a 50% plus one Republican.

She is not an an ideologue.

She is not an activist Republican.

She's getting stuff done in her city.

The perception is she'd be a great governor.

She'd be a great United States senator from this state except for the fact that she couldn't get through a primary because she is much more aligned with that Bush wing of the party than the Trump wing.

Well, the the primary system is obviously a subject for a whole other other show.

You know, one of the questions just popped to mind as you were talking about Cornin voters is I want to know who Cornin himself is going to vote for.

Right.

I mean it doesn't I I mean you know you you look you wrote a a a book literally called thank you for your servitude.

It was about people who um it was anthropological actually it was an anthropological treatise.

Um I just find it I I find the questions that you were raising in that among the most interesting.

people who maybe you would phrase it this way, people who knew better and who didn't agree with the turn that the Republican party was taking.

Yeah.

Turned anyway.

Cornin tried to be loyal.

Wasn't loyal enough.

I I I guess um voted with the president like 98%.

But the question it's not about it's not about just Cornin but the question for you is is there a a kind of especially let's assume just for argument sake that Congress goes Democratic and Trump is 80 plus years old in the last two years of a term.

Is there going to be a wholesale abandonment by people like Cornin who maybe were holding their nose the whole time?

you know, when does this um when does this level of complicity in things that they don't agree with?

When does it come to an end?

You you know, we we've thought in the past, certainly after January 6, that that would that the fever's over.

I mean, people are, you know, people were speaking publicly about, you know, January 7th is over.

Yeah.

Yeah.

No, Lindsey Graham, I mean, the whole the whole crew, I mean, but look, it did snap back.

I mean, Donald Trump is term limited.

I mean, I I think look, in the category of they who knew better and who allowed it to happen anyway, John Cornin, for as nostalgic as certain people might be about him right now, was absolutely among them.

He and if he were endorsed by Donald Trump and got the Republican nomination, he would be talking very differently right now.

So, the idea that there are all these outspoken Republicans now who are uh who are finally sort of developing a backbone, I mean, the vast majority of them are people who are either out of office or just lost primaries like Tom Tillis and so forth.

So, I mean, that's that's worth talking about.

And and also just I mean January 6, I think, is such a good striking example because there was a sense of this is over.

Um, and it I just think it's worth reminding people, not only did it snap back, but after January 6th, it began to snap back after 3 weeks, right?

This wasn't a slow burn.

Within three weeks, Kevin McCarthy flew down to Mara Lago, appeared with Donald Trump, a photo was tweeted out, and Trump was back.

And so, I think what we will see if there is an abandonment at the end of the day, we have seen, and and this is not unique to the Republican party.

as most politicians in general, but the Republican party is incredibly self-interested and self-motivated as politicians are both parties of getting reelected.

And so if there is any distancing, it will be because Trump for whatever reason no longer has that vicelike grip over his base.

But if it turns out in a Democratic controlled Congress is a lame duck president, that he can still attack you and get voters to turn on you, you're not going to see these profiles encourage.

Right.

Right.

Um, Vivian, I wanted to ask you something.

We we've talked about this a little bit.

Uh, and and Mark mentioned the name Lindseay Graham.

Um, and when we were talking about Ukraine, you've made some interesting points about I mean a very specific point about Graeme, but a larger point about the difference between the second term and the first term.

the first term there were people uh around Donald Trump who were building and maintaining guard rails um one by one they've all disappeared talk about that that that issue I think it's it's very fascinating so we've talked a lot about how this in this term the president really has surrounded himself with yes men and women people who will take orders agree I mentioned Pete Hagsth earlier um that is what he has chosen as you know the path for his second administration in part because he felt like too many people undermined his presidency the first time around and he did not want that.

So this time around, you know, especially with Ukraine policy, for example, or even the Iran war, one of the things that we saw throughout was that for the most part, the president's whims were being carried out, but then he was being reigned in definitely in the first year.

And there really is only one reason for it, and it is Senator Lindsey Graham.

when he passed away in July, um I kind of rounded up all the old interviews I've done with him on either Iran or Ukraine and tried to piece together um just how influential he was on the president's thinking and his approach.

hugely influential in the president's decision to go to war with Israel um against Iran to attack Iran um in conjunction with Israel and also hugely influential in keeping the money and the aid flowing to Ukraine because he is an old school hawk when it comes to national security and he still believes that Moscow, Vladimir Putin should not be trusted and need to be uh need to be uh subdued.

And so that was, you know, he, the president still kind of even even though he you could see it playing out in public that he was begrudgingly helping Ukraine out, he was still doing it.

It was partly because Lindsey Graham was so adamant and influential on his thinking.

So, you literally think that as as Trump is sitting there stewing about Zalinsk's ingratitude or having just general warm thoughts about Vladimir Putin sitting there in the White House, um that at some at at the the thing that was missing, the dog that didn't bark was was Lindsey Graham calling him up and saying, "Well, of course you're not going to cut Starlink off to the Ukrainians."

And and then and then being influential on Trump's thinking and a couple of four-letter words and all of it.

I mean, Lindsey Graham would have lost his mind on on on what we've seen just in the last week with regard to getting striking a diesel deal with Russia that will basically kind of fill their coffers again and allow them to strike.