>>> MAJOR FUNDING FOR ""REPORTERS ROUNDTABLE" WITH DAVID CRUZ IS PROVIDED BY THE VOICE OF REAL ESTATE IN NEW JERSEY.

RWJ BARNABAS HEALTH.

LET'S BE HEALTHY TOGETHER.

AND BY NJN INSURANCE GROUP, SERVING THE NEW JERSEY NEEDS OF RESIDENTS AND BUSINESSES FOR MORE THAN 100 YEARS.

ES PROMOTIONAL SUPPORT IS PROVIDED BY "NEW JERSEY BUSINESS MAGAZINE," THE MAGAZINE OF THE NEW JERSEY BUSINESS AND INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION, REPORTING TO EXECUTIVE AND LEGISLATIVE LEADERS IN ALL 21 COUNTIES OF THE GARDEN STATE SINCE 1954.

♪ >>> HI, EVERYBODY.

IT IS "REPORTERS ROUNDTABLE".

I'M DAVID CRUZ.

WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM.

>>> YOU'LL HAVE TO FORGIVE A LOT OF PEOPLE FOR THINKING THAT SUMMER JUST ENDED THIS WEEK.

THINGS WERE GOING PRETTY GOOD, THE BEACH, THE BAR, BARBECUES.

THEN SUDDENLY REALITY.

THAT DELTA VARIANT NOW THREATENS TO REVERSE ALL OF THE PROGRESS MADE AGAINST THE PANDEMIC OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

LET'S GET A DISPATCH FROM THE FRONT WITH DR. SHARIF ELNAHOW, THE PRESIDENT AND CEO OF UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL OF NEWARK.

DOC, ALWAYS GOOD TO SEE YOU, MAN.

WELCOME BACK TO THE PROGRAM.

>> THANKS SO MUCH FOR HAVING ME, DAVID.

>> SO I WANT TO GET TO THE IMPACT OF THE NEW CDC GUIDANCE ON MASKING FROM THIS WEEK IN A MINUTE, BUT I WONDER IF YOU CAN GIVE US SOME INFORMATION ON THE RESEARCH THAT'S COME OUT BEHIND THAT DECISION THAT SAYS THE DELTA VARIANT IS MORE TRANSMISSIBLE THAN THE VIRUSES THAT CAUSE MERS OR SARS OR EBOLA OR THE COMMON COLD OR SMALLPOX ACCORDING TO THE CDC.

WHAT CAN YOU TELL US ABOUT THIS STUDY?

>> WELL, ALL OF THAT IS RIGHT, DAVID, AND IT IS VERY CONCERNING BECAUSE THE STRAIN OF THE VIRUS THAT FILLED UP OUR HOSPITAL LAST YEAR AND TRIGGERED A SHUTDOWN VIRTUALLY OF ALMOST EVERYTHING WE WERE DOING IN THIS STATE IS LESS THAN HALF AS TRANSMISSIBLE AS THE DELTA VARIANT IS NOW.

THE ONLY REASON WE'RE NOT SEEING WHAT WE SAW LAST YEAR IN TERMS OF OUR HOSPITAL CAPACITY BEING STRAPPED AND OUR STAFFING STRAPPED IS BECAUSE OF THESE VACCINES.

THAT'S ONE RAY OF LIGHT ON THIS.

THE ACTUAL VACCINES STILL REMAIN EFFECTIVE, ESPECIALLY IN PREVENTING SEVERE DISEASE AND HOSPITALIZATION.

BUT IT IS VERY TRUE THAT THIS VIRUS IS VERY TRANSMISSIBLE.

A COUPLE OF REASONS THE CDC MADE THE MOVE IN TERMS OF THE DATA THEY SAW.

THE FIRST IS DATA FROM AROUND THE WORLD THAT IS SHOWING THAT VACCINE EFFECTIVENESS HAS WANED OVER TIME, MOSTLY BECAUSE OF THE RISE OF THE DELTA VARIANT.

SO YOU CAN GET -- YOU ARE MORE LIKELY TO GET COVID-19 NOW, BUT, AGAIN, STILL A VERY LOW LIKELIHOOD OF GETTING HOSPITALIZED.

BUT ALSO THAT THE VIRAL LOADS OF FOLKS IN THERAIR NOSE, MOUTH, OL CAVITY, THE PLACE WHERE THE VIRUS SPREADS, IS QUITE HUGH IN SOME PEOPLE WHO ARE VACCINATED.

THE QUESTION OF WHETHER VACCINATED PEOPLE CAN SPREAD THE VIRUS EVEN IF THEY DON'T GET SICK FROM IT IS A REAL ONE.

THAT'S THE REAL PUBLIC HEALTH CONCERN AROUND THE REASON THAT THEY RECOMMENDED INDOOR MASKING IN AREAS WITH HIGH OR SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD.

>> SO WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS?

I MEAN I IMAGINE IT IS GOING TO IMPACT FUTURE, MAYBE STRICTER GUIDANCE, NO?

>> I HOPE IT DOESN'T GO THERE, DAVID, BUT I THINK THE REAL MARKER OF THAT IS WHETHER HOSPITAL CAPACITY BECOMES STRAPPED AGAIN.

THAT WAS THE MAIN CONCERN LAST YEAR.

NOT ONLY WITH WHAT GOVERNOR MURPHY DECIDED BUT GOVERNORS ACROSS THE COUNTRY WHEN THEY MADE VERY DIFFICULT DECISIONS ON SHUTTING SMALL BUS NEINESSES DO SHUTTING DOWN THE ECONOMY AND SHU SHUTTING DOWN OUR LIFTS.

THANKFULLY, WE STILL HAVE LESS THAN TEN PATIENTS IN-HOUSE RIGHT NOW WITH COVID-19 BECAUSE NEW JERSEY IS ONE OF THE TOP STATES IN THE COUNTRY THAT HAS BEEN VACCINATED.

BUT WE ARE WATCHING ALL OF THAT VERY CLOSELY.

>> I HEARD SOMEONE CALLED THE CDC ANNOUNCEMENT ABOUT THE GUIDELINES A GUT PUNCH.

IT THROWS A LOT OF OUR ASSUMPTIONS OUT THE WINDOW.

DOES IT FEEL LIKE A GUT PUNCH?

>> IT DOES FEEL LIKE THAT, DAVID.

I EMPATHIZE WITH DR. ROCHELLE WILENSKY, THE CDC DIRECTOR, HAVING TO MAKE THIS TOUGH DECISION.

IT IS NEVER EASY TO BACKTRACK AND TO IMPOSE RESTRICTIONS AGAIN, HOWEVER LIGHT, WHEN WE ARE NOW MORE THAN 18 MONTHS INTO THIS AND MOST PEOPLE JUST WANT TO MOVE ON.

SO I DO BELIEVE SHE'S MAKING THE RIGHT DECISION BASED ON THE DATA IN FRONT OF HER, IN FRONT OF HER AGENCY, BUT IT IS NEVER NEWS THAT'S NECESSARILY RECEIVED WELL.

I APPLAUD HER COURAGE FOR IT.

>> NEWS THAT YOU CAN GET A SHOT AND STILL GET SICK ANYWAY AND STILL INFECT OTHERS.

WHAT'S THE IMPACT OF THAT GOING TO BE ON VACCINATION EFFORTS, WHICH IN NEW JERSEY LAG IN PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE COMMUNITIES?

>> WELL, THE FIRST AND THE MOST IMPORTANT THING TO EMPHASIZE, DAVID, IS THAT THESE VACCINES STILL REMAIN VERY EFFECTIVE AGAINST PREVENTING ESPECIALLY HOSPITALIZATION AND DEATH FROM COVID-19.

A LITTLE BIT LESS EFFECTIVENESS IN GETTING THE ACTUAL INFECTION, BUT, REMEMBER, A MILD INFECTION OR AN ASYMPTOMATIC INFECTION IS NOT NECESSARILY A TERRIBLE OUTCOME FOR FOLKS.

SO I DO WANT TO REINFORCE THAT VACCINATION IS STILL THE PATH THAT WILL ULTIMATELY GET US OUT OF THIS PANDEMIC, AND I HAVE NO LESS EMPHASIS ON THAT THAN I DID BEFORE THE CDC GUIDANCE.

SO IT IS IMPORTANT TO MENTION THAT.

HOWEVER, THERE IS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER LIKELIHOOD NOW THAT SOMEONE WHO IS VACCINATED CAN GET THE VIRUS AND SPREAD IT TO OTHERS, WHICH IS WHY THAT INDOOR MASKING RECOMMENDATION WAS PUT IN PLACE.

>> WHAT IS THE STATISTIC THAT CONCERNS YOU THE MOST?

>> I WOULD SAY THE VIRAL LOAD OF SOME FOLKS WHO HAD THE VIRUS AND HAVE BEEN VACCINATED, THAT'S THE QUESTION ALL OF US HAVE NOW ON THE ABILITY TO STILL TRANSMIT IT TO OTHERS.

I STILL THINK WE NEED TO SEE REAL-WORLD DATA ON THAT ACTUALLY HAPPENING BEFORE COMING TO A DEFINITIVE CONCLUSION ON THAT.

BUT, REMEMBER, THE JOB OF PUBLIC HEALTH OFFICIALS IS TO USE WHATEVER DATA IS AVAILABLE TO THEM, AND, TRUST ME, THIS VIRUS HAS HUMBLED THE GREATEST EXPERTS IN PUBLIC HEALTH SINCE THE BEGINNING.

ALL OF THAT NEEDS TO BE TAKEN WITH DIFFICULT DECISIONS IN THE FACE OF BAD NEWS.

>> VACCINE MANDATES, SOMETHING THAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN AT UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL STARTING IN AUGUST.

THE STATE OF NEW YORK AND OTHER SURROUNDING STATES ARE REQUIRING THAT THEIR EMPLOYEES BE VACCINATED OR BE SUBJECT TO REGULAR TESTING.

I IMAGINE THAT'S GOING TO BE THE NORM VERY SOON, NO?

>> I DO THINK IT IS GOING TO BECOME MORE AND MORE COMMON.

OUR DEADLINE AT UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL, DAVID, IS MONDAY FOR FOLKS TO BE VACCINATED.

WE ARE NOW LESS THAN 350 PEOPLE WHO WE HAVEN'T HEARD FROM YET ON THEIR VACCINATION STATUS OUT OF 3,700 EMPLOYEES.

OUR VACCINATION RATE EXPLODED FROM JUST UNDER 60% TO NOW WELL OVER 85% IN THE FIRST FEW WEEKS SINCE WE ANNOUNCED THE MANDATE.

THAT IS THE ENTIRE IDEA.

WE WANT TO BE A PLACE WHERE WE ARE VERY CERTAIN AND DEFINITIVELY CERTAIN THAT WE ARE NOT SPREADING THIS VIRUS TO EACH OTHER AND SPREADING THIS VIRUS TO THE VULNERABLE PATIENTS THAT WE SEE EVERY DAY WHO ARE MORE LIKELY TO HAVE A BAD OUTCOME.

SO I FELT THAT IT WAS NOW A MORAL IMPERATIVE, KNOWING THAT HOSPITALIZATIONS AND DEATHS ARE ALMOST ENTIRELY PREVENTABLE FOR THIS DISEASE NOW, AS THE CDC HAS BEEN SAYING.

>> SCHOOL'S A MONTH AWAY.

WHAT IS YOUR SENSE OF WHETHER MASKS SHOULD BE REQUIRED FOR STUDENTS COME THE FALL?

>> SO THE CDC'S LATEST GUIDELINES DID RECOMMEND MASKING FOR SCHOOLS INCLUSIVE OF STUDENTS AND TEACHERS AND STAFF.

SO IT IS IMPORTANT TO RECOGNIZE THAT.

I THINK, AGAIN, THE CONCERNS AROUND THE ABILITY TO POTENTIALLY TRANSMIT THIS VIRUS EVEN IF YOU ARE VACCINATED COLORS ALL OF THAT, BUT THE MOST IMPORTANT REASON IS THAT VACCINES ARE STILL NOT AVAILABLE TO CHILDREN UNDER THE AGE OF 12.

THAT CONSTITUTES SO MANY STUDENTS AND SO MANY STAFF AND SO MANY TEACHERS WHO MAY BE EXPOSED TO KIDS WHO ARE UNKNOWINGLY CARRYING COVID-19.

THE OTHER THING I WILL MENTION, DAVID, IS THAT WE ARE SEEING INCREASES IN PEDIATRIC SEVERE CASES OF COVID-19 ACROSS THE COUNTRY.

IT IS NOT AT LEVELS THAT ARE EXTREMELY CONCERNING YET, BUT IT IS STILL AN INCREASE, AND WE DON'T KNOW WHAT THE DELTA VARIANT WILL BRING AND WE DON'T KNOW WHAT FUTURE VARIANTS WILL BRING.

SO I DO THINK THAT ADVICE AND THAT GUIDANCE IS CERTAINLY WARRANTED.

>> A REAL QUICK QUESTION, AND MY LAST QUESTION.

YOU HAVE SEEN IT REALLY BAD AT THE HOSPITAL AND YOU HAVE SEEN HOW GOOD THINGS WERE JUST A MONTH AGO.

WHAT IS YOUR GUT TELLING YOU RIGHT NOW ABOUT WHAT WE SHOULD EXPECT IN THE FALL?

>> I THINK WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE MORE OF AN INCREASE IN CASES, AND I THINK WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE MORE HOSPITALIZATIONS.

THE MAIN QUESTION, DAFRLD, AS W WAS THE MAGNITUDE OF THAT EFFECT WILL BE.

YOU LOOK AT THE CURVE NATIONALLY AND IN NEW JERSEY ON DAILY CASES, IT IS ON THE UPSLOPE AND THAT SLOPE IS GETTING MORE STEEP INSTEAD OF LESS STEEP SO FAR.

SO I CAN'T CONFIDENTLY SAY WE ARE CLOSER TO THE PEAK THAN NOT AT THIS POINT.

WE HAVE TO SEE HOW THE DATA GOES.

THERE ARE MYSTERIES ABOUT COVID-19 AND WHY IT HASN'T EXPLODED IN THE UK, FOR EXAMPLE, OR WHY THE SURGE IN MICHIGAN JUST A COUPLE OF MONTHS AGO DIDN'T SPREAD TO THE REST OF THE MIDWEST OR THE REST OF THE COUNTRY.

THERE'S STILL MORE WE ARE LEARNING ABOUT THIS VIRUS EVERY DAY, BUT I DO HOPE WE ARE ON THE SIDE OF BETTER NEWS WHEN IT COMES TO TRANSMISSION OF THIS VIRUS >> ALL RIGHT.

STILL A WAYS TO GO.

PRESIDENT AND CEO OF UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL, ALWAYS GOOD TO HEAR FROM YOU, MAN.

WE'LL SEE YOU SOON.

>> THANKS SO MUCH.

>>> ALL RIGHT.

LET'S BRING OUR PANEL IN HERE.

COLLEEN O'DAY IS SENIOR WRITER AND PROJECTS EDITOR FOR "NJ SPOTLIGHT NEWS."

MATT ARCO IS THE POLITICS REPORTER FOR "NJ EVENTS" MEDIA.

MATT FRIEDMAN IS THE REPORTER FOR "POLITICO" AND THE AUTHOR OF "THE NEW JERSEY PLAYBOOK."

WELCOME BACK, MY FRIENDS, TO THE PANDEMIC THAT NEVER ENDS.

COLLEEN, YOU HAVE BEEN WRITING ABOUT THIS, BREAKTHROUGH CASES, RAPID SPREAD IN NEW JERSEY.

DOES THIS WEEK FEEL LIKE A WATER SHED MOMENT IN THIS PANDEMIC?

>> YEAH, IT REALLY FEELS PRETTY DEPRESSING, I HAVE TO SAY, WHEN YOU LOOK AT, YOU KNOW, THE BREAKTHROUGH CASES AND WHAT'S BEEN HAPPENING THERE.

THE GOVERNOR HAD PUT SOME DATA OUT ON MONDAY AND, YOU KNOW, AGAIN SHOWING THAT OVERALL THESE CASES ARE SMALL IN NUMBER.

BUT WHEN YOU LOOK AT JUST THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS OF DATA THAT THEY HAVE AVAILABLE, WHICH IS REALLY THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF JULY, THE BREAKTHROUGH CASES, HOSPITALIZATIONS AND DEATHS ARE UP SIGNIFICANTLY.

SO IT CERTAINLY SEEMS LIKE, YOU KNOW, WE CAME SO FAR AND NOW WE'VE TAKEN MANY, MANY, MANY STEPS BACK.

>> MATT FRIEDMAN, JUST TWO WEEKS AGO PEOPLE WERE LOOKING AT THE PANDEMIC IN THE REARVIEW MIRROR.

WHAT DOES IT FEEL LIKE TODAY?

>> WELL, LOOK, I'M NOT AN EPIDEMIOLOGIST, BUT, YOU KNOW, OBVIOUSLY I READ COLLEEN'S ARTICLE.

IT WAS INFORMATIVE ON BREAKTHROUGH CASES.

BUT I THINK IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE WE ARE STILL TALKING ABOUT A SMALL MINORITY OF HOSPITALIZED CASES THAT ARE FROM VACCINATED PEOPLE, AND YOU ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER WHAT PERCENTAGE OF NEW JERSEYANS WHO ARE VACCINATED AND WHAT PERCENT ARE VACCINATED.

YOU TAKE THE POOL AND IT IS 70% OR SOMETHING IN THE UPPER AGE GROUP THAT ARE VACCINATED, AND YOU TAKE THE POOL OF THE HOSPITALIZED AND YOU STILL SEE IT IS 75%, 80% OF UNVACCINATED PEOPLE.

CONSIDER THE SIZE OF THE GROUPS, RIGHT, AND YOU STILL SEE THAT THE VACCINES ARE EFFECTIVE.

NOBODY EVER CLAIMED THEY WOULD BE PERFECT OR THERE WOULDN'T BE BREAKTHROUGH CASES.

I THINK CLEARLY IF MORE PEOPLE WERE VACCINATED WE WOULD HAVE LESS CHANCE OF BREAKTHROUGH CASES, LESS MUTATIONS.

I THINK, LOOK, I THINK WE ARE JUST -- DID WE EVER EXPECT THIS TO FULLY GO AWAY?

MAYBE AT ONE POINT.

BUT I THINK IT IS PRETTY CLEAR NOW THAT COVID IS NOT GOING TO JUST DISAPPEAR.

LOOK, I'M LOOKING AT NUMBERS IN NEW JERSEY, IT IS ALARMING BUT WE ARE STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGIT OF DEATHS EACH DAY.

I THINK WE BROKE 1,000 CASE LOAD, BUT I THINK IT IS A LESS IMPORTANT NUMBER THAN THE HOSPITALIZATIONS NUMBER AND THE DEATHS NUMBER.

LIKE I SAID, IT IS STILL A PRETTY -- STILL MOST OF THE PEOPLE WE ARE SEEING IN THE HOSPITAL ARE UNVACCINATED PEOPLE.

>> MATT ARCO, TAKING A STEP BACK, WHAT ARE YOU HEARING FROM OFFICIALS?

>> WELL, LOOK, I MEAN OBVIOUSLY THE NUMBERS ARE GOING UP AND THE NUMBERS ARE GOING UP, I THINK, QUICKER THAN FOLKS EXPECTED.

CERTAINLY, I DID.

REALLY IMPORTANT TO HIGHLIGHT THOUGH WHAT MATT WAS TALKING ABOUT AND THE DOCTOR WAS TALKING ABOUT, WHICH IS THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE HOSPITALIZED.

AS LONG AS THAT CONTINUES TO REMAIN, THAT'S PROBABLY THE NUMBER ONE METRIC THAT THE MURPHY ADMINISTRATION IS REALLY LOOKING AT, EVEN THOUGH THE GOVERNOR SAYS THEY'RE LOOKING AT ALL OF THESE THINGS.

IT IS THE HOSPITALIZATIONS AND THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE THAT ARE IN HOSPITALS THAT WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT REALLY -- RIGHT NOW WE'RE GOING TO ASK IS THE GOVERNOR PUTTING IN A MASK MANDATE FOR INDOORS AND WE'RE SORT OF HOLDING HIS FEET TO THE FIRE GIVEN THE FACT THAT, YOU KNOW, A COUPLE OF MONTHS AGO WHEN HE ANNOUNCED THAT THE MASK MANDATES WEREN'T NEEDED WE WERE ONLY REPORTING A COUPLE HUNDRED CASES EACH DAY.

NOW YESTERDAY IT WAS 1,000 AND THE NUMBERS ARE TRENDING UP DRAMATICALLY.

BUT IF THAT DOESN'T RESULT IN MASS HOSPITALIZATION, THEN IT GIVES HIM ENOUGH TIME TO SAY, KICK THE CAN DOWN THE ROAD.

IT IS AN ELECTION YEAR.

TO SEE HOW THINGS ARE IN AUGUST, TO SEE HOW THINGS ARE IN SEPTEMBER WHEN, YOU KNOW, PEOPLE ARE GOING TO BE LASER FOCUSED ON THE SUBJECT OF SCHOOLS AND ALSO PROBABLY WAKING UP TO THE FACT THAT THERE IS AN ELECTION, BECAUSE I CAN'T IMAGINE A SCENARIO WHERE NEW JERSEY VOTERS, WHO TYPICALLY DON'T PAY ATTENTION TO ANY ELECTIONS DURING THE SUMMER TO BEGIN WITH, WOULD BE PAYING ANY ATTENTION TO IT RIGHT NOW GIVEN THE FACT WHAT WE JUST CAME OFF OF OVER THE LAST 15-PLUS MONTHS.

I THINK EVERYBODY JUST WANTS TO GET BACK TO THE NORMALCY AND HASN'T BEEN PAYING ATTENTION TO POLITICS AT ALL.

>> NO, I JUST WANT TO STRESS AGAIN, IF YOU LOOK AT THE NUMBERS -- MAYBE I DIDN'T PUT IT ELOQUENTLY ENOUGH.

BUT, LIKE, IF THE MAJORITY OF PEOPLE ARE VACCINATED, THE MAJORITY OF ADULTS, THE MAJORITY, THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PEOPLE IN THE HOSPITAL ARE UNVACCINATED.

I MEAN THAT TELLS YOU WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW.

THERE ARE BREAKTHROUGH CASES, BUT CLEARLY WE WOULD BE GETTING A LOT FARTHER -- YOU KNOW, THE BIG PROBLEMS ARE WITH UNVACCINATED PEOPLE AT THIS POINT.

>> YOU ARE ABSOLUTELY RIGHT.

BUT THE SORT OF STUFF THAT I SEE -- I AGREE WITH YOU, BUT THE SORT OF STUFF I SEE THAT IS DISCOURAGING IS THE CDC NOT INVESTIGATING BREAKTHROUGH CASES UNLESS THOSE FOLKS ARE HOSPITALIZED.

SO WE'RE HAVING THIS SORT OF WEIRD CONVERSATION ABOUT, OKAY, SHOULD WE BEWARING MASKS INDOOR BECAUSE IF I'M VACCINATED AND ASYMPTOMATIC CAN I SPREAD IT TO PEOPLE JUST AS EASILY, YOU KNOW, AS PRE-VACCINATION AND SOME EVIDENCE POINTS TO MAYBE OR SOME HEALTH OFFICIALS ARE SAYING MAYBE.

THAT COULD BE SEVERELY PROBLEMATIC IN TERMS OF WHERE THE NUMBERS ARE IN A MONTH OR TWO.

EVEN JUST THE ISSUE OF MASKING, I MEAN SOME HEALTH OFFICIALS ARE SAYING THAT THE BLUE DISPOSABLE MASK IS PROBABLY COMPLETELY USELESS GIVEN HOW TRANSMISSIBLE THIS VARIANT IS.

SO UNLESS YOU HAVE AN N95 MASK, WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF WEARING A MASK ANYWAY?

THOSE ARE QUESTIONS THAT THE CDC NEEDS TO FIGURE OUT.

>> WHAT IS FOR SURE IS THAT GOVERNOR MURPHY'S REELECTION HINGES AS MUCH ON HANDLING THE PANDEMIC AS ANYTHING ELSE.

HE'S AHEAD BY ALMOST ALL COUNTS, BUT THIS IS THE ONE THING THAT EVERYONE SAYS CAN DERAIL THAT VICTORY TRAIN.

MATT FRIEDMAN, THIS IS THE LAST THING MURPHY NEEDS THOUGH, RIGHT?

>> MAYBE.

YOU KNOW, I HONESTLY AM PRETTY SKEPTICAL.

I THINK PEOPLE CAN SEE THAT THIS IS HAPPENING ALL OVER THE PLACE, THAT NEW JERSEY IS NOT WORSE THAN THE NATIONAL AVERAGE.

I THINK PEOPLE CAN UNDERSTAND THAT.

IF THINGS GO HORRIBLY WRONG IN NEW JERSEY AND OUR SYSTEM BREAKS DOWN IN A UNIQUE WAY, THAT WILL GET RECOGNIZED.

BUT, YOU KNOW, WHAT YOU HAVE IS A SITUATION RIGHT NOW, IS YOU HAVE THE STATE, IT IS NOT GREAT, IT IS NOT DIRE, BUT YOU ALSO HAVE -- AND WE WILL GET TO THIS IN A LITTLE BIT, BUT MURPHY'S OPPONENT RIGHT NOW IS GOING FOR TO ANTI-VACCINE CROWD, WHICH IS A PUZZLING THING TO DO IN THE MIDDLE OF A PANDEMIC WHEN WE SAY, WHAT IS THE OVERWHELMING WAY TO GET THROUGH THIS AND IT IS, YOU KNOW, WITH A VACCINE.

>> COLLEEN, YOU AGREE THAT THIS MIGHT NOT BE SOMETHING THAT VOTERS HOLD MURPHY RESPONSIBLE FOR?

>> WELL, YOU KNOW, I THINK THE PROBLEM WITH THIS IS THAT IT HAS BECOME CRAZILY POLITICIZED LIKE EVERYTHING ELSE HAS IN OUR WORLD TODAY.

SO I THINK THE PEOPLE WHO TEND TO BE DEMOCRATS, WHO WOULD TEND TO VOTE FOR MURPHY, ARE THE ONES WHO THINK THAT HE HAS DONE REALLY A GREAT JOB UP UNTIL NOW.

OBVIOUSLY, IT WAS HARD TO SHUT THE STATE DOWN, BUT THESE ARE PEOPLE WHO, YOU KNOW, WOULD WEAR A MASK AGAIN.

WE PROBABLY ARE WEARING, MAYBE HAD NEVER STOPPED WEARING A MASK.

>> RIGHT.

>> YOU KNOW, THE FOLKS WHO ARE NOT WEARING THE MASK, AND I THINK IT IS KIND OF ONE OF THE IRO I IRONIES, YOU KNOW, WHEN YOU GET RID OF THE MASK MANDATE YOU SAY, IF YOU ARE UNVACCINATED YOU SHOULD WEAR A MASK, BUT IT IS THE UNVACCINATED THAT PROBABLY WERE THE FIRST ONE TO NOT WEAR A MASK.

AGAIN, I'M GENERALIZING.

AGAIN, FOR THE MOST PART IT SEEMS LIKE IT HAS BEEN POLARIZED IN TERMS OF REPUBLICANS VERSUS DEMOCRATS.

SO, YOU KNOW, I THINK THE REPUBLICANS WHO WOULDN'T VOTE FOR MURPHY ANYWAY ARE THE ONES WHO, YOU KNOW, ARE JUST GOING TO BE CRITICAL OF HIM REGARDLESS OF WHAT HE DOES.

>> YEAH.

SO ON THE OTHER HAND WE HAVE JACK CHITARELLI, WHOSE CAMPAIGN HAS EVOLVED INTO -- I DON'T KNOW WHAT TO CALL IT, MATT FRIEDMAN.

WHO IS THIS GUY AND WHAT HAS HE DONE WITH JACK CHITARELLI?

>> I'M NOT SURE.

I GUESS THAT HE FIGURES HE NEEDS SOME KIND OF EXCITEMENT BEHIND HIM, AND TO DO THAT YOU HAVE TO ENERGIZE A REPUBLICAN BASE.

AS COLLEEN MENTIONED, EVERYTHING HAS BECOME INCREDIBLY POLITICIZED.

UNFORTUNATELY, WHEN THIS HAPPENS THE ANSWERS THAT ARE NOT ALWAYS COMPLETELY CLEAR BUT TEND, YOU KNOW, TOWARDS FACTS BECOME TO A WHOLE GROUP OF PEOPLE, THEY'RE NOT FACTS, THEY'RE OPINIONS.

SO THE IDEA THAT LIKE, OBVIOUSLY, THE VACCINATION ARE WORKING, THIS HAS BECOME A POLARIZED ISSUE ON VACCINATION SOMEHOW.

INCREDIBLY IRRESPONSIBLE FOR THAT TO HAPPEN, FOR PEOPLE TO ALLOW IT TO HAPPEN, FOR POLITICIANS WHO KNOW WHAT THEY'RE DOING TO ALLOW IT TO HAPPEN, TO START BACK PEDALING NOW.

LOOK, EVERYTHING IS NUANCED, AND INSTEAD OF BECOMES POLITICAL OPINION.

I THINK ONE OF THE PROBLEMS WE HAVE IS THAT, OF COURSE, THERE'S BEEN MIXED MESSAGES AND MIXED GUIDANCE FROM THE CDC AND OTHER EXPERTS THROUGHOUT THE WHOLE THING BECAUSE IT IS A NEW VIRUS THAT WE'RE STILL NOT FULLY UNDERSTANDING.

HOW COULD WE ALWAYS -- YOU KNOW, HOW COULD THE AUTHORITIES ALWAYS PROVIDE THE RIGHT GUIDANCE IN THAT CASE?

SOMETIMES IT IS MESSED UP AND THEY SHOULD BE CALLED TO ACCOUNT, BUT THERE'S ALSO THIS IDEA THAT, LIKE, THEY SHOULD KNOW IMMEDIATELY AND IF THEY SAID SOMETHING WRONG, WELL, THEN THAT'S PART OF A CONSPIRACY TO TAKE AWAY PEOPLE'S FREEDOM FOR SOME UNSPECIFIED REASON.

YOU KNOW, THIS IS A NEW THING.

OUR UNDERSTANDING OF THIS VIRUS EVOLVES.

JUST BECAUSE THERE WAS SOME BAD GUY -- AND, HONESTLY, ON MASKS, LIKE THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON A LOT OF THAT.

BU BUT, ULTIMATELY, WE ARE TALKING ABOUT PEOPLE WEARING MASKS.

IT SHOULDN'T BE THAT BIG A DEAL, BUT IT HAS BECOME SO POLITICIZED THAT YOU CAN ALMOST BY SOMEONE'S POLITICAL AFFILIATION KNOW IF THEY'RE GOING TO WEAR A MASK INSIDE SOMEWHERE.

>> MATT ARCO, WHAT IS YOUR THOUGHT ON THIS?

>> LOOK, OBVIOUSLY ANY POLITICAL CANDIDATE NEEDS TO ENERGIZE THEIR BASE.

BUT THE FACT THAT, YOU KNOW, IT IS BAFFLING TO THE EXTENT THAT THIS CANDIDATE IS GOING TO THE RIGHT AFTER THE PRIMARY, TRYING TO EXCITE, I GUESS, A BASE THAT MAYBE HE FEELS THEY'RE DOING SOME POLLING THAT IS SHOWING THAT PEOPLE ARE NOT ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT HIM.

BUT, LOOK, THOSE -- >> THEY'RE NOT IN THE POCKET.

>> YEAH, THOSE PEOPLE DON'T LIKE PHIL MURPHY TO BEGIN WITH.

THOSE PEOPLE STATISTICALLY ARE MORE LIKELY TO GO TO THE POLLS, SO I DON'T THINK YOU NEED TO ENERGIZE THEM.

YOU SHOW ME A NEW JERSEY REPUBLICAN WHO WON A GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION BY BRINGING UP SOCIAL ISSUES.

I MEAN SORT OF HOMOPHOBIC LINES TOSSED OUT HERE AND THERE WAS NOT POPULAR IN THE STATE DECADES AGO AND HURT REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES THEN.

THE FACT THAT AFTER THE PRIMARY THIS IS THE SORT OF THING THAT HE'S TELLING THE SMALL GROUPS OF PEOPLE AND THESE OTHER SORT OF GAFFES ABOUT TELLING SMALL GROUPS OF FOLKS, YOU NEED TO GIVE ME WIGGLE ROOM.

I MEAN IF YOU ARE NEEDING TO SAY THAT OUT LOUD, ASSUMING IT IS NOT GOING TO GET OUT TO ANYBODY BECAUSE EVERYTHING GETS OUT AT THESE TIMES, THAT JUST SHOWS SOME STRUGGLING CAMPAIGN.

>> ALL RIGHT.

WE'RE RUNNING OUT OF STIME HERE.

WHAT DOES ANY OF THIS HAVE TO DO WITH WHO CHITARELLI CHOOSES AS HIS RUNNING MATE?

COLLEEN, WHO IS IT GOING TO BE AND WHY, IN TEN SECONDS?

>> YOU KNOW, IT IS A GOOD QUESTION.

DOES HE IMMEDIATE TO TAKE A RUNNING MATE SINCE HE SEEMS TO BE MOVING RIGHT, DOES HE NEED A RUNNING MATE WHO IS MORE CENTER OR LEFT, A MODERATE LIKE A DIANE ALLEN TO BALANCE THAT?

I DON'T KNOW.

>> MATT FRIEDMAN, WHO IS IT GOING TO BE?

>> I MEAN I HATE TO MAKE A PREDICTION, BUT THE THING -- I THINK, WELL, ALLEN IS VERY RESPECTED AND EVERYTHING.

I'M NOT SURE SHE WANTS IT AND I KIND OF HEARD HER DOWN PLAY IT.

I WOULD SAY SMART MONEY, CHRISTINE HANDLEN.

>> ARCO?

>> I WON'T EVEN JUMP IN BECAUSE I'M SKEPTICAL ABOUT THE POWER THEY HAVE TO PUSH FORWARD THE CANDIDATE.

>> NO TRYING TO SQUIRM OUT.

WE'RE ASKING FOR PREDICTIONS.

>> NO, I'M WILLING TO BET 90% OF THE PEOPLE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD HAVE NO IDEA WHO IS CURRENT LG IS AND IT IS NOT GOING TO MOVE THE NEEDLE.

>> I AGREE.

>> OKAY.

I HAVE AN EXTRA MINUTE -- >> I AGREE.

>> -- TO ASK THIS QUESTION, ABOUT THE JERSEY-NESS OF YOU PHIL MURPHY.

CHITARELLI HAS BEEN WORKING HARD TO SAY HE IS MORE JERSEY THAN PHIL.

MURPHY HAD THIS WEIRD KIND OF REEL ON TWITTER.

I HOPE YOU ALL GOT A CHANCE TO SEE IT.

MATT, I KNOW YOU COMMENTED ON IT.

HE WAS SUPPOSED TO SHOW HOW JERSEY HE IS, BUT IT STARTS OFF BY SAYING IT TAKES PLACE IN NEWARK WHEN IT TAKES PLACE IN EAST NEWARK.

>> RIGHT.

WHICH HE DID RECOGNIZE IN THE VIDEO, BUT I WILL SAY THIS.

FORGET ABOUT THE CONTENT OF THE VIDEO, ASIDE FROM HIM ORDERING A PLAIN BAGEL AND IT IS WEIRD TO ORDER A BAGEL IN A DINER.

>> EVER, YEAH.

>> NEW JERSEY, THE THING THAT MAKES HIM NOT NEW JERSEY IS THAT HE IS TRYING TO PLEASE ALL NEW JERSEYANS.

IT IS BASED INTO IT THAT YOU TRY NOT TO DO THAT, BASED ON WHAT LINE YOU LIVE ON ABOVE OR BELOW THE STATE.

THE FACT HE IS TRYING TO PLEASE ALL OF NEW JERSEY AND TRYING TO BE THE WHOLE STATE IN ONE, THAT SHOWS HE IS NOT FROM NEW JERSEY ORIGINALLY.

>> ARCO, AGREE, DISAGREE ON THAT?

>> NO, I TOTALLY AGREE.

I THINK IT IS A SMART TAKE AND I HAVE ACTUALLY NEVER HEARD IN ALL OF MY YEARS OF GOING TO A DINER, I HAVE NEVER SAT AT A TABLE WITH ANY FRIEND WHO HAS ORDERED A BAGEL AT A DINER.

SO THAT WAS A LITTLE ODD.

>> COLLEEN, THE CHASER FOR THAT BAGEL, WHICH WAS A PLAIN BAGEL, WAS WATER.

HOW IS THAT FOR JERSEY?

>> RIGHT.

WHO DOESN'T GET COFFEE WITH THEIR BAGEL?

COME ON.

>> A PLAIN BAGEL.

>> ALL RIGHT.

>> I DIDN'T EVEN KNOW WE SOLD PLAIN BAGELS.

>> WE WILL LEAVE IT ON THAT NOTE.

THIS IS OUR FINAL SHOW OF THE SEASON.

WE ARE RUNNING OUT OF TIME, SO I WANT TO JUST MAKE SURE THAT I THANK YOU GUYS, MATT AND MATT AND COLLEEN, FOR HANGING WITH US ALL YEAR LONG.

WE REALLY DO APPRECIATE YOU GUYS BEING WITH US THIS SEASON.

ONE LAST WORD HERE, OUR COLLEAGUE AND FRIEND BRENDA FLANAGAN RECEIVED TWO AWARDS THIS WEEK FROM THE NEW JERSEY SOCIETY OF PROFESSIONAL JOURNALISTS, THE COURAGE UNDER FIRE AWARD FOR HER COVID-19 REPORTING AND THE LIFETIME AWARD FOR EXCELLENCE COVERING NEW JERSEY, WHETHER IT IS HEALTH CARE, TRANSIT OR THE STATE HOUSE.

YOU NAME THE BEAT, BRENDA FLANAGAN HAS NO EQUAL.

CONGRATULATIONS, MY FRIEND.

WELL DESERVED.

YOU CAN FOLLOW BRENDA ON TWITTER @BFLANAGANNJ.

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER @DAVIDCRUZNJ.

THANK YOU FOR FOLLOW MING ME.

WE APPRECIATE YOUR SUPPORT HERE.

>> MAJOR FUNDING FOR "REPORTERS ROUNDTABLE" WITH DAVID CRUZ IS PROVIDED BY -- NEW JERSEY REALTORS, THE VOITS FOR REAL ESTATE IN NEW JERSEY.

MORE INFORMATION IS ONLINE AT NJREALTOR.com.

>>> RWJ BARNABAS HEALTH.

LET'S BE HEALTHY TOGETHER.

AND BY NJM INSURANCE GROUP, SERVING THE INSURANCE NEEDS OF NEW JERSEY RESIDENTS AND BUSINESSES FOR MORE THAN 100 YEARS.

PROMOTIONAL SUPPORT IS PROVIDED BY NEW JERSEY BUSINESS MAGAZINE, THE MAGAZINE OF THE NEW JERSEY BUSINESS AND INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION, REPORTING TO EXECUTIVES AND LEGISLATIVE LEADERS IN ALL 21 COUNTIES OF THE GARDEN STATE SINCE 1954.

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