-To basketball now.

During the NBA Finals Basketball Hall of Famer Shaquille O'Neal asked NBA Commissioner Adam Silver whether expansion to Seattle and Las Vegas was a possibility.

Silver's response was, Yes, it is a possibility.

So when might Las Vegas get a team, and what could keep that from happening?

Kurt Badenhausen, a sports valuations reporter at Sportico joins us now.

And Kurt, the earliest you think an NBA team would be based in Las Vegas is?

(Kurt Badenhausen) I'm gonna say 2028.

I think I think that's maybe not as soon as some Las Vegas residents want.

But I would say it's more than a possibility.

I would say probability.

Las Vegas, Seattle, certainly front and center in terms of the two markets the NBA is looking at.

But the big thing the NBA has to take care of ahead of time is its TV deal.

The two big things were a new collective bargaining agreement, which it knocked out agreement between the owners and the players in April, and now we have the new TV deal that has to be done.

That will help set the price because teams will know the economics that they're getting into.

And then that will also allow for to set a timeline.

Adam Silver has been very clear: Nothing's happening before the TV deal gets done.

But as people know, this is on the radar.

So people are getting their ducks in a row right now as it is so they're ready to hit the ground running when the expansion process starts.

-Can you explain to our viewers who may not understand how the CBA the collective bargaining agreement and the media rights helps determine the timeline.

Why did those have to be established?

How do they help in determining when it's feasible to have an expansion team?

-Well, those were the two major economic forces that the NBA had to check off its list before it could turn to expansion, which has been a long time.

We're talking more than 20 years since the last expansion franchise.

And we've seen valuations go through the roof.

You've had three billion-dollar-plus sales, three different teams over the last 12 months.

So there's a huge appetite for NBA franchises.

And I think we've kind of known that the NBA was ready to go to 32 teams but, again, they could not until you have these long-term agreements, both in terms of the labor agreement with the players, which determines how much money flows to the owners versus the players, as well as the TV deal.

There's-- it's a huge sum right now, $2.

7 billion on average a year.

We're talking about 100% increase, as much as a 200% increase in the best case scenarios.

And so that's, once that deal gets done, the current deal runs out after the '24-'25 season.

So we would expect a deal to be done over the next 12 to 18 months.

That's the timeline that most experts are thinking about, and most media experts.

So once that is done, they will set up an expansion subcommittee that will lay out the exact process, start talking to people because you need-- three things are important to have in place.

You need the right owner, you need the right building, and you need the right market.

That's the three key pillars of any expansion franchise.

-And we are going to be talking about a potential arena with our next guests coming up.

But with you, Kurt, Commissioner Silver does certainly seem in favor of expansion.

But he has to convince the NBA team owners as well and get their approval.

Why may they not want to expand?

-Well, there's an argument to be made that expansion has always been a bad bet for owners, because it dilutes their stake in the business.

There's a group of NBA owners.

I'd say all of them are very bullish on the future of the NBA.

And there's a group of them that don't want to give up 1/32 or 2/32 of that pie moving forward, because they think that dilutes their equity stakes in things like NBA China, NBA Africa, and the different businesses that the NBA owns.

And then also what you're going to have to figure is that you're gonna lose a slice, importantly, of that TV money, but as well as sponsorship money and the shared merchandise money.

And so owners think, Is that one-time check I'm gonna get going to be worth the money I'm going to lose if I'm going to own this thing for the next 30 years?

If I'm an owner on my way out, I sign off on this in a second because I'm going to get a 4- or $500 million check on my way out the door.

But if you're thinking about owning a team for the next 20-30 years, you've got to make the calculus, Does this make sense for me personally?

Any new expansion team and city has to be a creative to the NBA business.

So you think about-- you would think markets like Seattle markets, like Las Vegas, really help grow the overall pie.

And that's what owners are going to be looking at in terms of signing off on these deals.

-There's this pie or this pot of money that the NBA team owners all share.

And so if two more teams are added, then their share of that pie is lessened.

But as you just said, there's reason to want to expand to Las Vegas and Seattle.

Now, for a potential owner of an NBA team in Las Vegas, what kind of expansion fee might they have to pay to get that team?

-Well, the Phoenix Suns just sold for $4 billion.

So that's probably a good starting point.

I think, you know, the NBA owners are-- I don't know if they're gonna take less, the current owners.

You know, 3 is the bare minimum.

Partly you have to think about what a venue is going to cost, and we saw this with Las Vegas and Major League Soccer.

They had trouble because the cost of what the venue was going to be in Las Vegas for Major League Soccer.

MLS had trouble getting someone to commit to that huge expansion fee, because an arena was going to-- because a new stadium was going to cost so much.

Oak View has already laid the groundwork for a new facility in Las Vegas at a very big price tag.

And so we'll see if that happens.

But I think you're probably talking about a $4 billion expansion fee once, eventually, the media deal gets done.

-And for perspective, the last NBA expansion team was the then Charlotte Bobcats in 2004.

That was $300 million.

Wow!

Is it possible that the league would only expand by one team instead of two?

And if so, who has the advantage, Las Vegas or Seattle?

-Sentimentally Seattle has the advantage.

Ever since the team left for Oklahoma City, there's been this hole and this-- It is a very strong fan base that felt like this team was torn for them.

So I guess I would tilt it to Seattle slightly.

Long term, I think the NBA definitely does two teams.

The only reason to do one at a time is to potentially goose the price.

Because if you only have one out there, it's simple supply and demand.

Somebody they want wants to get in there quickly.

But I think you will have two groups--one in Las Vegas, one in Seattle--both willing to meet the asking price that the NBA is going to be looking for on an expansion fee.

-All right.

Kurt Badenhausen of Sportico, thank you for joining Nevada Week.

-Thanks so much for having me on.